 Well, Ms. Alessa news my name is Rob and today I want to talk a little bit of Bullishness and it doesn't sound like it at first but just stick with me and we'll get to at the very end So first things first when talking about how Bitcoin miners are getting loans to stay afloat and why only the strong will actually survive Then we're gonna just do a quick PSA a public service announcement talk about tax loss harvesting You've only got three days to do that just as a reminder And then lastly is want to talk about this morning's pre-recorded video. We talked with Jordan We're about the housing market and the eventual potential collapse of equities Housing and crypto and how long that could potentially last and last we'll do a Q&A, but this one I'll just have to I just have to talk a little bit about what everybody thought about it and How much it was negatively received from certain individuals and I can understand why so first things first Let's talk about Bitcoin miners. I think this is it's pretty important because where the Bitcoin miners go That's where the market goes. I mean, there's multiple indicators that we can take a look at we take a look at well multiple We can take a look at hash rate difficulty levels and things like that and just to take a look at who is in profitability and really if the big it's it's like that old adage if If If your wife ain't happy nobody's happy and it kind of comes down that that way as well with Bitcoin miners So there was an article We're talking about how Bitcoin miner Argo blockchain sells Texas facility to galaxy digital for 65 million That's Mike Novogratz his company glad to see that he's back on his feet after the Luna debacle So this is what's happening Argo blockchain announced has entered into a definitive agreements plural with galaxy digital holdings that will sell the miners Instead to sell its helios facility in Dickens County, Texas like I tell you Texas is the place to be if you're a Bitcoin miner The deal and I'm going to tell you why in a second the deal which will also see galaxy os Argos mining machines located helios is worth $65 million in addition galaxy will provide Argo with a new asset backed loan In an aggregate principal amount of 35 million with initial term of 36 months Using 23,000 bit main Mining machines and so on and so forth. So it looks like it's pretty good for this operation. I got to tip my hat to them just to Because that's what it really takes in this in this downturn You're really going to want to or have to be able to keep your head above water in any way shape or form Even if that means taking loans and just trying to survive But the question that I had it came out of this is is How profitable are miners right now? Because it seems like it's I mean with with the rising electricity costs and the overhead that we have and and then of course the just Just expenses all the way around especially with the with the macro environment. I'm like, how how profitable are bitcoin miners themselves? We can take a look here. There's a great sheet over at blockchain.com charts and miners revenue and if you can see it The black line here is the price of bitcoin and the blue color Is the miners revenue That's the revenue that each miner is doing and we can see right here. Usually you'd want the blue The bitcoin miners the miners revenue Above the black which is the bitcoin price that makes sense right if if the bitcoin price and on 15th of february 2020 was $9,900 and your Your revenue is 17,001. That's a pretty good day if you're a bitcoin miner. I think we could all agree That's looking pretty good And then of course we were just kind of chugging along chugging along the last year or so in 2020 Then all of a sudden right around here Something happened 9th of may 2020 and just like everything just got cut in half pun intended That's what's called a the bitcoin halving event and from there It was the same operation the same electricity costs same overhead and everything else, but now you're getting paid half Essentially, that's what happens and from that point forward in may 2020 And Then of course the mining operation was as not as profitable, but you know bitcoin miners just chug along and here they go and up here in 2021 You had the you know bitcoin miner revenue of 42,000 bitcoin price or anything that was pretty good But then as time went on you were just a little little profitable and then once Once the price spiked here. Here's the problem with with the supply and demand and bitcoin Price spiking which means that the more bitcoin miners get in and more bitcoin miners and more bitcoin miners get in And what that means is of course the difficulty level increases And once that happens now you have to put in more computational power to mine each block every 10 minutes And then of course your profitability goes down. So really if you're a bitcoin miner I hate to say this but Really what it comes down to is survival of the fittest and we can just see over here But as time has gone on Bitcoin miners the ones that have planned and and prepared just like an investor Once those bitcoin miners start shutting off Their rigs Then you can be more profitable and just go from there And but the bigger question I have is well, what is big? What is the profitability for each bitcoin miner? This right here is jayson. Jason less of riot blockchain And in 40 seconds, he's going to tell you the exact number it is To break even his break even point Because right now we're going to see I personally believe Bitcoin's going to go down to around between 10 and 12k when it's all said and done So what I want to know is are all the bitcoin miners going to shut down because if you're not profitable How can you do this? There's only so much you can actually have so just take a listen to this interview 40 seconds jason ceo riot. It's going to tell you just the exact number for what it is What is your break even point? in your facility Are for q3. So we just realized our q3 results and um All factors considered into our power strategy and cost of revenues our cost for bitcoin was approximately $8,300 That's great. Yeah, and then that that's a testament I really will attribute that to the power strategy and the grid balancing efforts that riot participates in We own large blocks of power and we are able to sell those powers Sell that power back to the grid and stabilize that grid when demand is high So that's market forces dictating the allocation of supply not a master regulator grid coordinator It's a very efficient system and by us taking that financial risk We you know both stabilize the grid and support our communities and get the financial benefit from doing that Yeah, perfect. And guess what just happened. There was this huge snowstorm Or cold bomb. Whatever you want to call it Cold cyclone and of course it ripped through taxes and the hash rate itself Drop pretty precipitously and the reason is because people had to shut off their bitcoin miners and the reason that they did that because they sold that electricity back to the mainframe And it's the companies that did something like this, which what riot is doing to keep them up They're head above water. Now if you have a break even point of 8,900 That's great if you're riot if you're a smaller operation Just an individual miner you don't have that luxury because you probably didn't lock in that price and things didn't work out too well for you Initially, so I think when we take a look at this, these are the ones that are going to lead the way Just like the crypto products that are out there that are doing quite well So when we take a look at these We just want to say which ones will do well It's the ones that have planned the one that have allocated funds for the rainy days Just like right and that too also goes down to if you are A investor putting money away for rainy day, which I think is going to come in 2023 So that is that part and then also Just uh, it was interesting to me. We talked to this a couple days ago Riot themselves they this is on december 22nd I mean as bitcoin miners are shutting down You got riot who just delivered 5000 S19 xp miners in texas via fedex and those are all going to just sit there until The uh cold front moves away and of course then they will be one of the major players In the bitcoin mining operation, but there's one thing that concerns me and we talked about this yesterday as well This is pool distribution so pools They can put themselves in and and of course any bitcoin miner is free to To exit and enter any of these pools as they pool their resources to mine bitcoin But just so you know Right now And this is up to three days ago. You can you can break this down if you want to one week one month three months one year But as of three days ago 52 of the hash rate is between two pools foundry and ant pool now China used to have the lion's share and now looks like uh, well usa's leading the way But it's still not the greatest thing. Um Everyone if one time about decentralization and things like that and we have 52 that's never good It seems like there's a the lion's share there and then I think with Everything shutting down you can I bet these smaller ones will just get absorbed into These bigger players here because of what the things we just talked about is that good for Bitcoin and decentralization means to be seen But uh, again when we talk about decentralization, that is one of those things and I need to stress this I'm not a bitcoin miner and from what the bitcoin miners tell me they say robby don't understand We can plug in and plug out any given day that we want to so just because foundry is there and it's the largest I mean we have to go to foundry It just may mean that that is the most profitable for us because They have whatever they have and maybe they secured a better deal and low overhead and low low electricity. So Not to say that's you know Bitcoins on the ropes, but that's what we have. So let me just think about that in the comment section This bottom is interesting. Let's move on to our next piece And this is just a quick PSA and we had talked about this. I had I had the CEO of coin ledger on david kemmer and if you want to Sell your crypto just wait don't blow your you know Don't start screaming at the at the screen because of me But it's called tax loss harvesting and you got three days to do it So this is what we got the deadline for tax loss harvesting is New Year's Eve And if your capital loss for the year exceeds your capital gains You can use up to three thousand dollars of losses per year Fifty hundred bucks if you're married or filing separately to offset Regular income. Let me just break this down real quick A couple years ago when xrp got sued or excuse me ripple got sued I sold all my xrp and then five minutes later. I bought it all back And I locked in a massive amount of losses which I can use Unconditionally against my capital gains So if I had losses of say, I don't know three hundred thousand dollars or something like that And I had capital gains of three hundred and fifty thousand while the losses take care of The gains And I don't have to pay fifty thousand dollars in tax. That's on capital gains On your income. It's only up to three thousand dollars. So just so you know that So if you're looking to do anything like that, there's a great website It's called coin ledger And you can sign up for free and take a look at what you need to sell as far as tax loss harvesting And if you want to buy A report for your cpa when you do when you do taxes, that's cool. You can do that later But right now you can start for free and see If you have some losses you can take before The end of the year hits. I'm just telling you what I'm doing So that's that and lastly remember The government doesn't know what it's doing as far as crypto yet Or they haven't decided so Crypto isn't a security yet So you can do what's called wash trading because it is deemed in america. I don't know where you're at It is deemed as a property So I sold all my xrp and then I bought some back not all of it, but a good chunk of it back And that's where we're at. So just so you know, you can do those things just trying to help you out Anyhow, oh, also, there's one more thing. This was pretty interesting. I didn't know they could do this But in coin ledger, let me go back Oh, it's right here see that in the green up here It says save thousands with nft tax loss harvesting if you click on learn more it's going to come over here and They're going to talk to you about how you can sell your nfts for tax losses Which let's be honest a lot of us bought some stupid nfts in our day And if that's the truth, there's a great video There's david right there and he's going to talk to you about that and you just click this green button And he'll tell you what to do. So it's not just crypto. He knows to do nfts. I mean if you want to keep your nfts That's fine, but whatever. So that's what we got in that one. And then lastly just to go over this real quick We had this session this was a pre-recorded session It was me and uh jordan weirce And we talked about The housing markets and the different things that are going on and we took a look at this What is it 14? 20 some year cycle and and jordan's not a big believer in this one but he's a big believer in this Real estate activity and you can just you can just kind of see You know how this has gone with the market over 200 plus years And the one thing we took a look at was a potential 10-year bear market And there was two things to note First of all, even though you're in a bear market doesn't mean there's gains and opportunities to be had It's just the truth if you look back and and we hear s and p 500 index historical charts that we take a look at The historical index of at the s and p 500 back in the days of the 60s you can see that We didn't hit the all-time high. We talked about this today We we topped out of 1969 1970 846 and it took us till the 80s to get back there But as you can see as we go down 1970 If you would have dollar cost average here, you could have sold around here and been okay And then come down here Sell a little here. You just you just it just becomes a tighter range. That's all So we talked about that But there was one more thing I didn't talk about and I should have and that was What jordan was talking about and and we talked about this after the video I put that put it in but The thing was it was pretty bearish what we were talking about a 10-year bear market, which it could happen You know, we have to take a look at all angles But there is one bright light that I keep thinking about which is this which is There's so much money. That's not in crypto right now. It's just not and I think the reason that it's not is because People have no idea which way the governments are going to go. Are they going to ban crypto before you say that's impossible You can't ban crypto No, but you sure as heck can ban Or make it super difficult for the on ramps and off ramps known as essentialized exchanges Also, you can make it extremely difficult For the people that have a ton of money to get into crypto Because they don't want to because they don't want to at some point go Oh, you were part of an unregistered security or ico pay off suckers And I think that's one of the big things And that's why I've been harping on just to get some clarity as far as regulation But if we get those things, I mean the money that's sloshing around is ridiculous like We talk about many times, but it's just it always surprises me about how low we are This was in 2020 and each one of these little squares is a hundred billion dollars In 2020 our market cap was 244 billion. You know what our market cap is now? 800 billion that's not that much I mean, we went to like 3.1 trillion dollars and we tumbled all the way down to me. I'm just like There's so much money that is needlessly in these stupid zombie companies that are being propped up by the fed and they're and they're never ending charade of of money printing and they just keep going on those companies need to die So they can go to the future which is digital assets and my personal opinion But you can just see here. I don't I don't care about this stuff like gold I don't understand why there's 12 trillion in gold. I just don't get it. I own gold and silver I still don't get it Stock market's got a hundred trillion. Okay, you know you got me on some of that But you don't think that those zombie companies that are soaking up the five ten trillion that are just worthless Couldn't just flow into some kind of future technology like crypto digital assets to me It doesn't make any sense why it wouldn't global debt 253 trillion global real estate and this is what me and jordan. We're talking about there's 280 trillion dollars give me cheese 10% of that No, it's too much. Give me 5 14 trillion dollars For us in crypto, you know what that would do. Well, let me do some quick math 14 trillions history 16 Finance ria. It's a that's a 5x of where we were at an all-time high in november 2021 Can you imagine that and that's just in real estate? And then of course global wealth. I'm gonna talk about the derivatives which are just big Futures forwards options warren swaps, which is just paper nonsense anyhow So when I take a look at this stuff, and I'm just like I know there's there's I know there is a bearish part to this this process and I talk about it a lot but it's only because I'm so tired of people talking about how We're gonna pivot any day now and you're gonna see this awesome rally come up. I'm like no, that's Dumb It's it's gonna take a long it's gonna take some time to get there right and I have laid out why it is I could be wrong. I mean obviously been wrong many times But when I take a look at these things like I see a path forward and I see where it could go I don't know if we're gonna hit this this this 10-year bear market But I can see a definite way out and that's just my two cents So let me let you think about that in the comments and now we'll get in the q&a So look if you got to take off it's been 19 minutes quite a long time So if you had to take off get out of here, I appreciate you stopping by On what is it? Wednesday times Time slips away from me But that's it now we'll do a little q&a and I'll answer all your questions From there. All right, let's do this Jarkey If you have a Bitcoin monitor, just connect electricity to a street grid and you don't pay You don't get to pay electricity again. Yeah, you know Like when in Puerto Rico