 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have got some very fun and important games coming up in week number 15 in the NFL some games That would go a long way towards deciding who gets the playoffs what the seeds may look like and much more We're gonna break down those games for today with dr. Ed Feng getting his read on the key games across week 15 and let you know where his number show value over at Fandall sports book This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for a Fandall research joined here as I am every Thursday by dr. Ed Feng find his work at the power bank comm check him out on Twitter at the power rank and week 15 is coming up How you doing today? I'm doing great looking forward to some more NFL football and you know, we're getting pretty close to those college football semifinal games So, yeah, I'm doing great. We got semifinals coming up, which they look pretty fun. We've got Pretty good playoff races in both the AFC and NFC, you know a lot of middle-ean teams involved But still it's more fun to talk about middle-ean teams and their playoff implications Especially for the Saturday games this week as well. We'll talk about one of those games with Lions and Broncos So a lot left up in the air. I think it's gonna be a fun I know it's been a weird year with all the quarterbacking injuries and stuff like that but yeah, I think it is at least reassuring yet that like The stakes are high even if the quality of play may not be as good as it has been in some recent years Well, the stakes are always high, right? And yeah, that's of course unfortunate that some of these quarterbacks aren't playing anymore But I think the stakes will be high and you know college football when we have a 12 team playoff I mean it won't quite be the same as it was this year But at least we'll have a lot fewer opt-outs to think about And that playoff is going to be a blast. I'm already excited to break down Those with you next year We're gonna dive into NFL week 15 here in just one second to get you ready for all the fun games But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast on that feed You can find right now a breakdown of Thursday night football between the Raiders and the Chargers via Tom Vecchio Breaking down his read on that game tomorrow of NFL player props It's an Anthony PL stuff JJ Zachary's and back with us and Austin Cass And I'll break down the sunday night football game between the Ravens and the Jaguars That'll be up on this feed on Saturday morning and also over on fan dual tv plus where you can find all of these shows Go to fan dual comm slash watch and log in with your fan dual account Or download the fan dual tv plus app on amazon fire apple tv or roku devices Score early this NFL season with fan dual america's number one sports book right now new customers Get $150 and bonus bets with any winning $5 money line bet That's 150 bucks if your team wins if you've been thinking about joining fan dual There is no better time to get in on the action. The app is so easy to use There is a wide range of betting options including spreads player props totals and more So visit fan dual and kick off the nfl season fan dual official partner of the nfl must be 21 plus and president select states Fan dual is offering online sports waging in kansas under an agreement with kansas dark casino llc first online real money wager only $5 pregame money line wager required $10 first deposit required bonus issued is now a travel bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat See terms at sportsbook dot fan dual dot com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit fan dual dot com slash rg in colorado iowa michigan New jersey ohio pennsylvania illinois kentucky tennessee and virginia Call 1 800 next step or text next step to 5334 2 in arizona 1 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or visit ccpg dot org slash chat connecticut 1 809 win in indiana 1 805 22 4700 visit ks gambling health dot com in kansas 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in louisiana Visit md gambling health dot org in maryland 1 800 gambler dot net in west virginia 105 222 4700 in wyoming hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org or call 800 327 50 50 for 24 7 supporter massachusetts or call 1 8 7 7 8 hope and why or text open why in new york We're going to dig into that uh broncos versus lions game here in just one second But first ed i want to talk to you about a topic that does actually apply pretty heavily to that game because Those two teams are very different from what they were earlier on this year And you've talked before about how your college football model is very reactive to more recent games Wayne data they're more more heavily than earlier on the year And the nfl we've seen a lot of teams have ups and downs this year the dolphin started off hot have cooled off recently the broncos Opposite where they got trounced 70 to 20 and then have been a lot better recently so How do teams get handled in the model when they have those big gaps? They've had the big swings doesn't weigh things pretty heavily pretty pretty evenly across the entire year How does your model handle the handle things like that on the nfl side of things? My model definitely looks at season long averages to rate nfl teams In a league with strong regression to mean i do think that is the way to go My model has been pretty successful looking at spreads over the past I don't know six seven eight years So I I definitely do believe in it. I think miami is is pretty interesting because You know the defense should be getting better. They were in the bottom five, which is completely unexpected with You know adding big fangio as the dc. He is considered one of the coordinators that actually do matter and So and you've seen them getting better. They have a healthy jaylen ramsey. They are performing better maybe not the last few drives against tennessee, but um, so You know that is definitely a team where i'm like, yeah, I might be off a little bit Uh, I might be underrating them a little bit. I am off market with them on the jets, but I actually think that's because The jets are a lot better with zack wilson kind of weird to say so but Yeah, miami is certainly a team that I think you need to be like Oh, well, I think the season long numbers are underrating them a little bit. I think they are the exception We'll get into denver in the next section because I think their situation is completely different From from miami, but in general the idea for me. I tend to lean on season long averages I think that is different from what the market does, but I do think that is one of the reasons my number Find value I do the same thing as you where I think it's it's better to take those those longer term views of things after accounting for injuries because injuries like If it's an injury that explains why there have been ups and downs. That's one thing but for like A lot of teams. That's not the case now for the dolphins maybe you could make that pitch because their entire offensive line is now hurts like you could make that pitch for them but like for some teams it's variance and in the nfl I know strength of schedule is not as Big of a gap in the nfl as it is in college football But like there are still ebbs and flows to teams that you faced and I think that does matter Quite a bit So I think that the right way to handle things personally is the same way that you do where We take the full season into account the nfl as a game of small samples I don't want to make the smith the sample smaller unless I get a more relevant sample and that means primarily injuries or like Dramatic scheme changes like I had to handle the cowboys different because They shifted this very passive approach I think it's worth it to Shift them because that's a scheme change a conscious scheme change Sure I'd rather change for that than change because the team happened to get hot in a couple of plus matchups So I think that to me is a key thing Did something tangible change if yes focus on the smaller sample Rob Pizzolo talked about that on your podcast where he's okay with small samples if they're a more relevant sample But I think for a lot of situations, it's more so variance than a legitimate shift in the way things are occurring Right for sure and rob was of course mixing in watching with games And the watching of the games was a big factor in whether he said hey, this is a relevant sample Um, this is what I should be paying attention to I can deal with smaller sample size or Yeah, they look kind of like crap the numbers aren't necessarily confirming what I see so Let's not do that I agree Okay, so let's talk about a game where this is all very relevant begin things off on Saturday night between the Broncos and the Lions are right now Lions are four and a half point favorites and the total is 47 and a half at ed Lions are struggling recently Broncos playing a lot better at least getting better results Do you see the Lions bouncing back here to cover at home? Yeah, this moved Which is unfortunate. Yeah, I think this is a pretty good, uh by low spot on Detroit look the defense might suck They've they've been kind of slowly sliding and a lot of my numbers and that is definitely a concern I think they're just playing bad right now. I think they're probably You know, not a bottom five unit If they can be closer to the NFL mean where they were earlier this season I I still think this is a super bowl contending team because the offense is healthy They are a top five unit and that is the most important and the most predictive thing in the NFL But let's talk about the Denver Broncos. So they are six and one in their last seven games, but You know, you talked about hey, should we upgrade them? No, because you got to look at the context of these games, right? Like so, who did they play? They got Dorian Thompson Robinson and PJ Walker against Cleveland Both of those are now riding the pine behind 38 year old Joe Flacco They got to face Josh Dawes with Minnesota who is now the backup to Nick Mullins And last week they got a lot of Easton stick against the Charters when when Herbert went down So when you adjust for that, which I'm actually doing now all of my passing Success rates are now specific to a quarterback. And so that is actually kind of It's kind of interesting right because Green Bay's defense doesn't look as good when you take out the Brett ribbon game Actually, I think it's back in there because I had enough data with another game for Ripon to If it's a lone game where quarterbacks played even though if it's like, you know, 30 past attempts I'll throw it out because there's no means for comparison But I think Ripon's in there. So anyways, that's an example And so when you look at like what the Broncos are doing, it's it's, you know, they haven't exactly faced the best Not even the best in the NFL, but the best that these teams have to offer And then, you know, you also got to look at like some of these turnover numbers So they're plus four against Kansas City in a win. They had worse success rate in yards They're plus three against Buffalo And another one win plus three against Minnesota a game that they'd barely squeaked by And then plus two against Cleveland. So big time for alert With the Denver team, I think they are playing well. I mean, I mean, I don't think they're playing well I think they're winning games. I think they are below NFL average on both sides of the ball I think it's a pretty decent spot for Detroit. I liked it obviously better at minus four. I have it about Detroit by about five and a half points So not a ton of value, but but I do think that Detroit will play better and I think I think Denver's front I agree with you across the board with this one I have the lines here by nearly a touchdown in this game in large part because I'm doing it the same with you on the Denver side of things But also I think that Detroit has kind of had some funkiness the way things worked out for them Frank Ragnar, their center missed that Chicago Bears game. So like I had a lot of bears Defense in daily fantasy that week because it's like, okay, it's them on the road playing outdoors. No center I think that made a lot of sense. So like I like to do things in terms of like how you play relative to expectations They didn't really fall that far short of expectations in that game They had a lot of fourth down stuff that went against them in that game And I love their aggressiveness on fourth down just didn't break in their favor that time. So I feel like Detroit is being Underrated a bit right now because of more recency bias and Under performances in key spots like on Thanksgiving and stuff like that But I haven't seen enough out of them to be like Super super concerned about their long-term outlook defensively sure But cj Gardner Johnson now might be back next week Which is I thought he was done for the year So I guess I was kind of surprised to see that he might be back next week or begin practicing next week So honestly like my long-term outlook for the Lions Hasn't changed that much like yeah the defense sucks. That's very very true But I think the offensive bounce back. I agree with you where Denver is a bit fluky So I think it's good spot to lay the four and a half. I got the four earlier on this week I think four and a half still enough value to justify buying Detroit there Yeah, absolutely. And I feel like uh, you know, we were we were kind of talking about Detroit as a Super Bowl contender They've dropped off a little bit Dallas is like leaping into that conversation I think in a couple weeks, we might drop Philly out of that conversation Uh, so, uh, you know, it's a food situation San Francisco is definitely at the top but It's gonna be fun heading down the stretch Well, even San Francisco had that time where people were out of them so, you know before their bi-week when Trent Williams is out Steve a Samuel is out like people were out of them too So there have been a lot of ebbs and flows the NFC this year Let's talk about that team you alluded to the Dallas Cowboys going on the road to take on the Buffalo bills We're right now spread is one and a half and the total is meaty at 50 and a half For this game bills kept their playoff wins actually boosting them a lot last week with that win over Kansas City Yeah, but the money line for this game has tightened a bit during the week So some action on the cowboys. How do you see this game playing out in? Yeah, I think I think it's a pretty interesting one. I still believe in Buffalo We talked about how their offensive metrics are good Turnovers have definitely been an issue and probably got the oc fired Um, but again, let's I I really want to focus on the pass defense because it's just all over the place The 30th in my passing success rate after I adjust for opposition Um, which is terrible. They are 13th in my adjusted yards for pass attempt, which is Probably where they are. They're actually the sixth best cover grade overall by pff and That requires a little bit context because tree avius white isn't playing But, you know, toran johnson has a coverage grade of 74. That's really good and a fellow average is about 60 He's on the injured list, but hopefully he'll play a suble douglas. They traded from green bay. He has an 84 That is obviously good probably a little bit of small sample size because I think that's only the games in which he's played with buffalo but I mean he he's been Really good player since green bay. Yeah brought him off the scrap heap however Whether it was last year or the year before and then christian benford has pff grade of 71. I mean that that's three corners that By a metric that I trust look pretty good. So I I think you we can trust that they're at least Um, at least an afl average in in terms of the defense, obviously, you know they could use a little bit of help on more on the the pass for our side eponess is on the The injured list and von miller is not playing and and never really was good for them this year I have buffalo by about two points. So I'm pretty on market on this uh I'm definitely kind of interested in buffalo minus one and a half Most of the rest of the market is is a little bit higher there. Uh, they get this at home the house has been really good, but um You know, I still think there's some questions with that team. So, uh Definitely lean towards buffalo here. Yeah, I did take the cowboys money line when it was plus 116 It's now plus 110. So that's shortened a bit and enough where it's like Less of a value now than it was before but the you mentioned part of the concern I have ed with doing that was The cowboys are on the road and they are a dome team and they've had their pretty big offensive search since their buy week Uh, it's a seven game sample, but five of those seven games that come at home now One of those road games was that game against philadelphia where they played really really well. Um And I thought that they were very impressive in that game But I'm seeing the same thing with you with the bills where it's like that defense hasn't really fallen off Like I've expected to fall off. I know that success rate numbers are bad But like you're talking about the coverage grades like I still think they've played decently well overall despite The poor success rate. I did think the chiefs moved the ball pretty well against them on sunday despite the fact They scored to 17 points there. So Not sure how to interpret that part, but I like the cowboys here. I like their past heavy approach I like how they've been playing things there. My concern is that they've done a lot of that High efficiency stuff that my model adores while playing inside and now they go outside Take on buffalo wind speeds here at nine miles per hour. Nothing concerning there. So it's not crazy. Yeah Yeah, no, that's totally fine, but it's more so like I I don't know if it's like this this bias getting back to when when dak was like young they had Huge home road splits back then hasn't been as dramatic recently But like so I do still like the cowboys I feel good about that bet that I made but like that always does Conserve me at least a bit watching a team that has been shredding recently suddenly go outdoors to play on the road against in a you know somewhat unique environment buffalo Yeah, for sure. I mean I I think uh Yeah, we'll see. I mean What I've been seeing in Dallas is they they kind of started the season not not having dak throw deep Yeah, that's completely changed over over the last five weeks. So it has been a pretty explosive offense Can they get it done against a you know, a better than average buffalo defense? We'll see All right, let's finish up here with the sunday night football game That is the ravens at the jaguars. We're right now vandal sportsbook the ravens three and a half point favorites only minus one or two on that three and a half right now for the ravens total in this game Is 42 and a half and last weekend we saw trevor loren's play through his ankle injury Yep, I thought it looked okay in that game like he was running around a bit But like wasn't as accurate as you'd expect for trevor loren's tough tough defense obviously there But now facing another tough defense at home. Can the jags cover here as three and a half point home underdogs? Yeah, my numbers certainly like it. I have bolton more by 1.6 points and it's not surprising my numbers have like jacksonville all year They are at home And you're getting them in and out of division games So it's hard to make even a team as good as bolton more, you know more in the three-point favorite and my model doesn't Kind of got to talk about jacksonville's defense. It hasn't really been good the past two games Jake browning had 54 passing success rate against them And then last week joe flacco had about 46 passing success rate the nfl average is 42 Percent so so that hasn't been good. They dropped to 17th in my adjusted passing success rate Interesting note on flacco, right? I mean is he playing to make the hall of fame this year No, I always I always have this conversation and my new york giants friends swear that elie manning is a hall of fame quarterback because of two postseason runs and joe flacco clearly has one postseason run Where they ended up winning the super bowl He had that miracle where the Denver safety somehow let a guy get behind him, right? And now he he's actually playing pretty well And 38 years old. He's got the best defense in the nfl Anyways, I was just hoping to make you laugh a little bit. It worked Jo flacco in the hall of fame But anyways back to jacksonville. I mean I think uh Yeah, oh the other thing I wrote down about this game You know lamar jackson doesn't have mark angers the second game I had a 44 success rate last week against the rams You know and and the rams are pretty much the definition of nfl average on on defense at least by my numbers 6.9 yards per pass attempt, which is better than the nfl average of six ish So, you know a pretty good performance I'm really interested to see what he can do with probably without a top target Although you can make the argument for ze flowers. I think I think flowers actually probably had more Targets when they were both in the lineup So that's definitely something I'm keeping an eye on I'm not too interested in betting against baltimore. Although probably the way I would mean is with jacksonville Yeah, the plus three and a half on the jags right now is minus 120 if you want to go That route that route and ride with ed's numbers looking back at last week in that rams game for the ravens It looked like a lot of broken coverages which I was happy with I had uh, I had lamar and dfs And like was you know, I had odell had Isaiah likely as well But I think that likely touchdown was a broken coverage and I believe one one of the odell long catches was too and Broken coverages are not really sustainable pretty fluky See that occur. So it is a downgrade for them with no mark andrews losing a Very good football player is never a good thing for an offense I am curious how things look for them Given that they're more familiar with todd munkin's scheme. I love todd munkin. Um, so do you want to see how it goes? I have this but at 3.8 favor baltimore. So Pretty even thus making it a stay away from me. I think we'll have some pretty fun talking props for that tomorrow on the When I'm filling in for tom vecchio, but like I think it's gonna stay away from my numbers for the ravens and jags, but I believe I agree with you. We're having faith in the jags overall is good and like Right, they're missing cam robinson. They'll have tackle missing christian kirk, but they've been missing Key pieces throughout the entire year basically. So I don't think we want to downgrade them too much based on that Especially the laurence getting a week healthier on that injured ankle Yeah, for sure and and it was really good to see them kind of come out You know, especially when I have a ticket for jacksonville to win the division, which you know still looking pretty good But uh, it was good to see, you know, we don't we don't want to necessarily see cj bathered or uh No, uh frank What's the third stringer nathan roark the pre season superhero. Yeah um adam turnoff loves Nathan roark he thinks uh My buddy adam over at razz, uh, I think thinks roark is uh, is a is a Is a solid nfl backup. I just don't want to watch cj bathered That's the reason I like nathan roark is because I just don't want to watch cj bathered I've seen enough of that between his big 10 days the san francisco days I've seen enough like I want nothing to do with that So give me laurence or give me roark or give me death at this point cj bathered or mitch trubisky um flacco You'd rather watch flacco That'll be interesting to see what you think about that in a couple weeks. So, okay I know that the ages here are different But like remember when will levin started began starting for the for the titans is like, okay He probably sucks, but at least he'll like throw a deep. That's joe flacco Like right he probably sucks, but I'll throw a deep. I'd rather watch a deep ball that might fall in complete than like other stuff But but stufansky's letting him throw deep, right? Like yeah, they're throwing in a very high rate the past two weeks He is leading fully into it. That is not what I would expect when you bring a 38 year old I think it's because their run game is awful too Like I think they know that their run game is awful. So we might as well like chuck it down field and see what happens Yeah, it's interesting. I mean you could you could have done that with walker dtr too, right? But yeah Yeah, yeah, it's At least he's not boring. That's that's my evaluation of joe flacco is at least he's not boring And what's any kind of the definition of boring last year with the jets? He's like, ah flacco starting the first four games So I hated him because like I Do I admit that I kind of I used to like I like zach Wilson coming out So like I rooted against flacco because I was like, okay, I need wilson to look good in comparison to flacco Um, I can say that because it was documented like it's on the website that I liked zach wilson coming out So I can at least say it. Um You know can't hide from my bad takes. Um, so I was rooting against flacco and his efficiency numbers It was actually very similar to the to it's like now with the browns where His efficiency numbers like epa numbers were terrible, but like he was throwing a deep. They had a very high pass rate You know I'd rather watch them chuck it deep with flacco than have drone forward, you know go for 3.5 yards per carry So, you know, it's not the worst thing in the world. Not the best by any means, but I'd rather I'd pick flacco over bethurt at least if that's the the bar. Yes to clear then sign me up all right Alrighty that is all that we have here for this week on covering the spread a lot more flacco discussion I'm sure a lot of people expected coming into this one all that game against the bears actually isn't terrible Um On sunday as well. Ed. What is going on for you this week over the power ink? I had a great conversation with ryan newton of four for four on the podcast He has been doing really well with tackle props was very generous in actually giving us three On the show, uh, I I think his analysis is actually even more interesting the way he digs into it So check that out the football analytics show is the name of the podcast and you can get that wherever your podcasts wherever you get your podcast And then uh, check out my free sports betting email newsletter If you're looking for action on any given weekend five no get saturday is my answer for you. I curate the best tips out there Uh, so check that out at the power rank dot com All right in the ryan newton conversation again is over at the football analytics show find ed on twitter at the power rank I am on twitter at jim sonnis. You can find me on threads at jim dot sonnis and follow fan dual research on twitter At fan dual research back with you once again tomorrow talking nfl play art props with jjzak recent epl With austin cast then i'll have a breakdown of the ravens and jags coming your way on saturday morning This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network