 Welcome back folks. This is Jacob Schup, filling in for Tom O'Brien, and we have Steve Rhodes on the line. Steve, can you hear me? I can't, just fine. How you doing, Jacob? Doing well. How are you doing? It's about 69 degrees here on the West Coast. How about you guys? It's wintertime. It's beautiful, isn't it? I love it. Yeah, I do like it, you know, certainly as opposed to, you know, playing golf in 90 degree weather. Of course. But it's a little chilly. No kidding, no kidding. Well, it's welcome because it was so hot last week, so I'm glad to have it back. Yeah, absolutely, absolutely. So Steve, what are we looking at today? Yeah, you know, so last week was the weekend after the beginning of the war in the Middle East. Yes. And so what we did was we took a look at how prior Middle East events have impacted, mostly the S&P 500, because I didn't really have chart data that went back that far for gold and crude oil, but we still took a look at what we could. And it was interesting because it kind of opened your eyes up to what traders are actually doing, what's really happened, at least in the past, versus what one might think is going to do that. So what I thought we would do today is we would just take a look at crude oil and just focus on crude oil. And Jacob, this is one of the charts that I showed last week on Monday or something very similar to this. And the result of taking a look at the way crude oil, gold, and the S&P 500 traded, what we had determined or concluded was to just trade the patterns. So what I do is I share with folks each day what the different patterns that I see inside the marketplace and patterns that help us to identify where the momentum is at, whether it's to the upside or the downside, when there's a top or bottom signal that's forming. So here's an example here. In 2006, there was the Israel Hezbollah war. It lasted for 34 days. It started on July 12th. In 2006 lasted through August 14th. And if we take a look, so I've identified here the beginning day of the war. Now, here, if we were just looking at this chart, forgetting about what may have happened or didn't happen, we would have said at this stage here that price was bullish. Because in this case here, where that first blue arrow is, price was trading above its oscillator and change line, which is green. That means that we had a rising price oscillator above zero. Those are bullish conditions, period. The second thing that we had was price trading above and closed above the top of its daily profile. So both of those two things are bullish conditions. So war, no war. The market was bullish at that stage. In fact, it was bullish for the next couple of days. And then two days later, really, the following day, it triggered a Rosemont Dominicator signal. What that signal tells us, Jacob, is that the market is stretched. Now, it's not that that stretch can't continue on or that it can't disappear because it can. So just a mere fact that something is stretched doesn't mean it's a top or a bottom. The way that we make that determination is we let the market communicate that to us. And the way the market speaks to us is it generates these bullish or bearish reversal candles. There's a bunch of them that are out there. What I teach subscribers are the seven bullish and seven bearish candlesticks. They're the only ones you really need to know. They simplify things. And one of those would be a bearish shooting star candle. And that's what identified the top here in Lights Recruit. So even though we had a war that was going on, it was only day number three where we got that sell signal out there. This still shows that was the top, regardless of the fact that the war continued on for another 30 days or so. I've got the identification out here of when that on August 14, what crude oil was doing. Now, it formed a bullish hammer candle there. That was the opposite of this bearish shooting star. So there's an expression out there that if you close below the low of a hammer candle, if you're long, you're wrong. But that wasn't, if we take a look, remember, when we started this, we took a look at this green oscillator and change line, how price was above it. Here we get to the end of the war. We can see that price is now below red oscillator and change line, which continued to act as resistance. So it's another tool that I share with folks. It's really helpful. So in summary, crude oil paid attention to its patterns. And so too did the S&P and gold. So it's really important to know that because now this is going to help us navigate what's going to happen going forward. So if we take a look at 2021, this is kind of interesting because this was quite a wild market. But in 2020, it was a wild market when crude futures got below zero out there. But what happened in 2021 is crude oil confirmed a yearly by the D point pattern. Now I showed the A to B and the C to D legs out there. The way that I get a confirmation of a by the D point pattern, a Gartley by pattern, whichever one we want to refer to it as, is it confirms with a bullish reversal candle. In this case here, it was a bullish engulfing candle. Now, if we take a look at and go back a little bit further and we're still looking at an annual chart here for lights we'd crude, these two black rectangle areas show consecutive closes. In this case here, we're looking at higher closes where the close of one year is above the close of a prior year out there. And we can see that this we've got two instances. This takes us back to 1984 where we had two four bar rallies. Each year was a close above the prior year. Well, if we take a look at 2023, we're already trading above last year's close. We're likely to form bar number three this year of consecutive moves higher out there. So now you probably know what I'm going to say next. And what I'm going to say next is we're likely going to see a rally inside of lights we crude that takes us into 2024. Now, I'm not giving any price projections here, but we've had two other four year rallies out there. And so it looks like to me, we're going to have a fourth year. So I filled up my car on Saturday morning. It was $5.09 a gallon in the area that I live in. So it's much cheaper where you're at. But they, you know, they see it coming and up goes the price. So so we got to if I take this a quarterly chart for crude oil. And here I also show the A to B equal CD pattern. Now, the real cool thing about this crude oil chart is that when I eliminate pretty much everything, we can see a clear consolidation. And that's really helpful to us because if we're anticipating that crude oil is going to be moving higher for the next the next year. So where is crude oil headed to? Well, the first upside target in any kind of consolidation pattern would either be the would be the top of the consolidation. It's like the bottom of consolidation would be another target. So in this case here, this suggests to you and I that we should see $130 per barrel oil sometime between now in 2024. Maybe it's sooner than later, but that is where prices likely headed to because this consolidation pattern out here now. When consolidation patterns get broken, whether it's to the upside or the downside, you have a measured move. And that's equal to the original consolidation. So if we ever do break above that 130-ish area, 228 is the next objective. I am not making that as the call, but it is a pattern that we'd want to pay attention to. If I look at a weekly chart here, Jacob, we can see that 94-34 was a prior swing point. That was a rogement and indicator top was confirmed with this bearish and golfing candle. That is significant resistance. We already tested it four weeks ago, three weeks, four weeks ago, tested and rejected it. But prices pulled back and it's still holding that green oscillator and change line. Conditions here on a weekly basis are bullish with a price consolidated with inside his profile. And if we see a close of 87.95, we should get up to that 93.26 level. That gets us back towards 94.34. This is the initial A to B equals CD price target that I've got for LightSuite crude. And we can see here that this is a, this retracement, this B to C retracement, only 43%. That tells us this is likely going to do more than a one-to-one move. Well, more than one-to-one gets us up to $120. So in summary, we're anticipating that crude oil is going to trade towards the $130 area by next year. And that's going to cost me both an arm and a leg. Fantastic analysis. You know, it is always so amazing to see these kind of like long-term patterns develop over the past years. You know, I, especially with everything going on, the instability that we're seeing still in Ukraine and Russia. What we're seeing going on in Israel and Palestine, I mean, I think it's just amazing what you put together. So thank you so much for coming on and sharing that with us, Steve. You bet, Jacob. You're doing a great job and always enjoy being with you. So have a Magnificent Monday and bring out your Perkins. It's going to be cold. We'll get it right there, Steve. Thank you so much. We'll see you soon, all right? You bet. Take care of that, guys. Folks, we will be right back.