 Welcome back everyone. David, it's really good to have you here. David, you're the founder of MacroDizak. Tell me a bit about your background and what you do, how you've gotten here. Yeah, of course. Cheers for having me, Ricardo. It's really, really good to be joining CMC to have a chat about markets today. But yeah, so MacroDizak, I founded after leaving Broking and, you know, I was writing a note every single day on LinkedIn and it was appealing to sort of the institutional crowd, other traders and that kind of thing. But then I thought, you know, there's a much better audience that this can appeal to where you're taking the complexities of research and making it a little bit simpler, you know, as if you're having a conversation, that kind of thing. Whereas, you know, what's out there at the moment is there's research that is either too sort of corporate, too institutional, which is fine, you know, compliance has to do things in a certain way and things have to be worded in certain ways. But then there's other research which takes all the complex bits and just thumbs them down too much. So we thought let's find a happy medium between those. And now we've got like 10,000 subscribers and yeah, we're just, we're growing it. Fantastic. No, I really appreciate that. I think, you know, let's start off with the markets a little bit. I really want to touch upon the core headline recently on what's really going on with the Chinese economy. The Asian markets have been under pressure because of what's been going on. And let's go through a few facts. So China's 10-year government bond yield has been the lowest since COVID. You see the economy is experiencing deflation. You know, that's now going to export that deflation to other countries. More specifically, the US, we can go into a bit more detail there. But also the new home prices fall for the first time. So certainly there's some concerns there. What are we looking at? Where next for that economy and other economies that are depending on China? Yeah. So I think firstly, whenever I talk about China, I like to frame China a little bit differently versus how we'd frame an economy, maybe in the West, this experience and similar things. So it's important to recognize that the CCP is not like a Western government. A lot of what the CCP does is very much face saving. And this isn't a negative, by the way, this isn't a negative at all. It's very much face saving. For example, they suspended the youth unemployment data just a couple of days ago and reinstated it with a clean version. Okay. I think we can all allude to what that means. But at the same time, the UK during COVID, they changed the GDP numbers and how that's measured. So these things do happen. And again, it's not a negative. It's possibly just a way in which they reinforce some sort of credibility, if you like. So in terms of the deflation side, though, you're absolutely right, you know, that exported deflation can occur. And we're seeing it through PPI, you know, producer price index in the US, even in Germany, we've seen producer price index completely collapse in the UK, we've seen it. And that does tend to have, you know, a kind of a lead time on CPI. And as you're referencing with the UK CPI number, you know, it's disinflationary, but it did beat the expectation. It depends on what time period you're looking at things over. If you're an intraday trader, you're going to look at the beat as like, oh, yeah, I want to get long cable, right? But if you're looking at a bit of a longer term, you're like, okay, is now maybe the time the right time to start scaling into UK gilts, for example, you know, maybe there's V gov that you can look at. So it kind of depends, yeah, on what timeframe you're looking at things over. But you know, that UK inflation number in the previous data with wage growth, that wage growth number was slightly anomalous, because it was taken into account, I think it was 7.8%. It well beat basically 7.8%. But it was taken into account the bonus paid to NHS workers back in May. So I think the market took it as, okay, this doesn't really matter because the unemployment number also increased the expected was 4% versus the actual of 4.3%. Which is most important there? How can we deduce what's most important? I think unemployment ticking up has a bigger effect on the inflationary pressures by dampening inflation than the anomalous wage growth data. So I think from now on, we're going to start seeing concurrent sort of softening in inflation. But the underlying measures really, really do matter. And it's important to take those into context as well. You know, from the from the China export and deflation side of things, that is where things are coming from. We saw, you know, the supply side stuff over COVID. Basically, all of those Chinese goods not being able to get to the West, that was a massive, massive issue for inflation. You know, so that's what policy makers are now seeing the elastic band effect kind of occur now, you know, it's a real snapback from COVID times. And that PPI is an important figure to watch. Absolutely agreed. I think you now refer to something really important about that inflation numbers being trickled down back to the UK. Bank of England, very much data dependent. We look into the next rate hikes 25 basis points, probably even 50 basis points, but it doesn't seem to be an ending cycle. What do you see there? So the issue with rate hikes and how they're reported in the media, especially at such a sensitive time, is there's a meta analysis that's been conducted on maybe 29 different studies. And I think it was released in 2020, maybe a little bit earlier. But it basically says that in developed economies, the lag time on interest rate policy changes, so rate hikes or rate cuts tends to take between 25 and 50 months to come to fruition in developed economies. And the reasoning is, is because the more financially developed they are, I guess the more liquid they are, you know, there's going to be less of a direct impact. It takes time for credit changes to occur versus, you know, developing economies. But the Bank of England have to be really, really careful because they're probably looking at now, okay, so there's been 14 consecutive hikes which started only, what, 18 months ago, roughly? You know, we're nowhere near that even initial 25, 25 month minimum, if you like, that that meta analysis basically looked at. So we're reaching, I think, terminal rate and 5.5% should be the terminal rate. We are seeing, you know, guilt yields soften a little bit, especially on the two-year. We hit that level where they reached back in 2007 and absolutely collapsed obviously with the financial crisis. So I think, you know, we're reaching a part of the story now where previously something big happened, and this is how I like to look at the market as well, what happened at a certain time and are similar issues happening again. We're seeing, you know, London House prices down 1.8%, very reminiscent of 2007, 2008. Now, I'm not saying it's a similar sort of banking liquidity crisis, you know, trying to retell a story of what happened. Price reacts heavily in similar ways, you know, it's a footprint. So, you know, we're at similar levels of 2007, 2008 House prices are ticking down a little bit in London. Outside, they've actually, you know, remained quite okay, which makes sense. But yeah, I think 5.5% of the Bank of England are going to say, well, we need to wait for these time lags to come in now because we're seeing cracks already. Perfect. I think that takes me nicely way into other topics that you just mentioned. Back into the US Treasury market, we saw previously that when Treasury market reached a low, something cracked and that was the banking crisis. Now we're back into that level whereby it's below that area that it was within the banking crisis. So we do have more difficult times coming in from the US. How does that tie into the broader situation in the US? And, you know, what do we see there? Do you mean in terms of yields? Yes, yes. Right. Okay. Yeah. So I think the US is a bit of a special case because growth is still relatively strong. What we're going to have to see out of the US is that NFP number really starts slipping, in my view. We're kind of at the final point with the US where, okay, we've seen the high beta jobs as I like to refer to them. So all those tech jobs at the start of the year, they've been cut. Some banking jobs have been cut as well. Again, reminiscent of past times, you know, when things started to show cracks. But the problem is that the real, I don't consider those being the real economy. They are basically an excess of low interest rates through COVID, but also before COVID, you know, the mass hiring into tech, it's just mass excess. Now we're seeing sort of that reversion back. And for real cracks and credit problems to start to show, we have to see the real economy start to crumble. And until that NFP number starts ticking up, it's not going to make a difference. You know, it's nothing's going to happen. You know, we're seeing credit card debt right at highs. So people can still facilitate it because they still got jobs. It's not the rich tech people that, you know, are are are an issue when it comes to credit card debt. It's the the subprime, if you like, they're still in jobs. They can still facilitate their credit obligations. So until we start to see unemployment crack, I don't see any issues with yields up there. It's a crazy, crazy dynamic that's occurring because I'd have thought long time ago that unemployment would have cracked, but it's just been strong. Consistently NFP every single first Friday of each month, you know, it comes in strong, comes in in line. It's a crazy dynamic. The mandate of the Fed, if you really look into it, they have two jobs, right? Get inflation down, make sure unemployment is not too high. So you're right, it's still strong. But what happens if we suddenly see this surge of unemployment go up and they're not done yet? Maintaining rate hikes or even starting to increase rate hikes? So are we expecting them to start dropping really quickly? Because they know that they're in trouble now. Well, I would say so. You know, if we look back again, I like to look back at previous stories, they've reacted quite quickly when things have happened in 2018, for example, the market started to absolutely dump and then they had to react. I don't think they're as sensitive to how the market intertwines with things. I think they've again, it comes back to unemployment. I think unemployment is the key driver for the Fed. But it's an interesting topic that you bring up there, you know, the relationship between inflation and unemployment. Because Powell said at Jackson Hole, I think in 2020 that the relationship between the Phillips curve, sorry, between unemployment and inflation, which is the Phillips curve, held during the 1980s, but it hasn't really held more recently. So I think that kind of alludes to the problem or the conundrum, if you like, of why unemployment hasn't cracked yet, even though inflation is high, maybe it's because US productivity is so high, maybe it's because genuinely the US economy is that strong, which is a scary thought because the way I think of trading and trading opportunities risk to reward is what is the underlying theme that could cause a big reversion. And if it is the worker, then it's going to be a trouble in time. Now that doesn't mean to short the hell out of the market because that's silly. This is positive expectancy to remain long equities usually, right? But for underlying indices like the Russell, which I think it's 12 month trailing price to earnings ratio has been cut in half versus last year, that's a problem which shows underlying weakness in smaller caps. So again, it just feeds right back into unemployment for me and general global aggregate demand. And again, it's linked to China, you know, you can see the demands gone in China. That feed for effect is probably going to start happening in Germany as well. Really, really troubling. You mentioned about the tech sector, right? We've seen the FANG index retest its previous highs again. And could you provide insight into how mega cap tech stocks are responding to, we spoke about the 10 year yields and how that's been reacting, but to the structural increase in 10 year yields, how has that been impacted? We've seen this AI frenzy, tech, tech stocks go absolutely crazy. They've pushed the S&P and the NASDAQ up almost to new highs. People, like you said, people are thinking there might be some steam left, but we now see markets reacting differently. Yesterday with the Fed minutes, they've given a strict call. People have reacted. It was a shock to investors. We have the Jackson Hole next week again. Tie all that up for me. What do you expect next? The Jackson Hole is going to be quite interesting because obviously in 2020, that's where Powell had introduced the average inflation target in framework, right? I want to see if there's any mention of that again, because to be fair, they're approaching roughly their target now. And again, it comes back to those time lags, you know, how long does monetary policy take to feed through? Are they now concerned that they're reaching the upper bound of their limit almost? They might reach it in under a year. So it's a very interesting time, but I think the tech sector dynamic, the way that I like to reframe tech stocks is their blue chip sovereign bonds at the end of the day. Where is the safety? Is the safety at the moment in treasuries, which are linked to inflation, you know, if you're taking a directional bet? Or is it in Google, Facebook, Amazon, which are still providing earnings? And apart from Google still providing a dividend? What is it? Where would you rather be? You know, people are, there's like the emotion of, oh crap, we might be going into a recession, but then there's a reality of, oh, we're not actually in a recession, unemployment is strong, credit spreads are still really, really narrow. You know, there's so many stories coming out. And I think this is where mainstream media, sorry for saying that, but it's true. Mainstream media does a real disservice to people because they're fear driven. And if you're actually allocating capital, if you stop and pause, you're like, nothing's actually wrong yet. There's a lot of data out there that's bad, but nothing's actually breaking. We saw sort of, I mean, this is a perfect example. So we saw obviously Silicon Valley Bank break, go bust. We saw Credit Suisse go bust. But they're like footnotes for two weeks. Whereas if that was 2007, a massive investment bank going under, God, that would have been in the news for a year. And it's because of all of the liquidity that's out there still, you know, all of the liquidity. But the other thing as well that I think is a big change is the the introduction of the regulations and capital buffers, they couldn't make as much noise because then they'd be saying, oh crap, like our regulations aren't working, our capital buffers are after all of these years, you know, they actually don't work. So yeah, a lot of stuff going on out there. But at the end of the day, people are still buying the S&P gets bit up every single time it hits a low. So again, everything points to that requiring unemployment to break to reduce that credit liquidity, if you like, of people being able to use their wages to pay off their debt. Yeah, look at credit spreads, look at unemployment, see if they correlate. It's probably quite a good signal to see if there's there's issues coming up. The markets lost trust in the Fed, you think? No, they're completely guided by the Fed at every single turn. Like the Fed, do you know what? I think Powell's done a fantastic job, quite frankly. I know most people like rail against him, but what more signposting and guidance could be provided? You know, what more could they have done? They're kind of bound by their role at the end of the day is as buyer of last resort. And everyone is going to pin the blame on the Fed, because at the end of the day, they control the market. They control the direction as face it US Treasury. I think they've done a good job. I don't think there's any credibility loss at all. I think the credibility loss should be more in the governments over COVID, because effectively they've caused the inflation. I think we mentioned this quite quickly about AR related stocks and how well they've done and how well we think it's going to continue to do. They look expensive at the moment, but they're still valuing other parts of the S&P. So now you have a dilemma in the market saying we're going to ruin the June and July rally, go back to the 4100 level, or other people are saying, no, they're still steam there. You've already mentioned this almost slightly, but what are your thoughts? What do you think we'll head up in the pre-election seasonality area? So I think AI is a big buzzword, but as a trader, who cares? You're looking for momentum? And this is where I say, all right, so who cares if you don't actually like the underlying thing or you think chat GPT isn't actually worth that much? There's certain uses for AI, but I don't think they're replacing a human for most. I think it's a fantastic way to sort things and find information really, really quickly. But the amount of things that go wrong with it are massive. There's so many mistakes when I've tried to sort of just find a paragraph or a little piece of writing to inspire some thoughts. But that doesn't matter because other people are buying it. At the end of the day, you've got to throw your thoughts away. But I think as a factor of the general market, it is expensive. It is very expensive right now. And funny enough, I think I mentioned about the 12 month trailing price-to-earnings ratio. For the Russell, that's been cut in half versus last year. For the S&P, it's down maybe I think like four points or something like that. But for the Nasdaq, I think it was up like five or six, which shows you that AI as a sector has really, really kept the Nasdaq up, whether it's been via meta, whether it's been via chips with Nvidia or whatever. So it's been a great narrative. It's been a fantastic narrative. And I always think that if there's, as George Soros said, if there's a bubble by it, because bubbles just go up, I do think it runs out of steam. But again, I think the market runs out of steam. Considerable steam is what I mean. You start seeing those big liquid drop-offs. It starts to run out of steam when we start to see unemployment. It goes back to that because credit spreads are like that. And credit spreads are going to be the one thing when that seizes up, probably from unemployment when people can stop paying and stuff. That is when things occur. Because what that implies, what credit spreads basically implies, that there's no wages being paid, which means there's unemployment. There's no facilitation of profit. There's no cash flowing into businesses. They then can't pay their corporate debt. And it crumbles. And again, I want to refer back to the Russell PE ratio. It's been cut in half. So we've kind of already seen it. I think there was a period in 2020 when the Russell's PE was actually negative because most of the firms there weren't making money. So yeah, there's a lot of dying companies out there. But if rates were lowered quite quickly, they might turn a profit because their debt's cheaper. But yeah, credit spreads were very, very important across the whole grade as well from A all the way down to junk. Sorry, AAA all the way down to junk. And I think I saw that, so if you were to look at a chart of the basis point pricing of debt, it kind of goes like this. So you've got quite a lot of AAA debt, and then it decreases. But when you get down to junk, it's a massive hockey stick again. And that's about 700 to 1000 basis points, I think their price that so was that 7% to 10% yields. There's, yeah, there's basically a lot of crappy debt out there. And you know, if rates go up again, that will increase it again up to maybe 11%, 12%. That's maybe when things seize up. But who knows. Yeah, no, for enough. I think you're gonna like this question shifting the focus to the housing market. We mentioned this, if people aren't selling their homes necessarily, but you know, I got this stat actually last night, I think it's now even more, but Morgan mortgage rates have surged above 7.5% for the first time in decades. That throws concerns about the housing market stability. Are we going to see something very similar to that 2007 2008 crisis? But also, you know, we look at the situation having significant effect on closed sales from August to October. And potentially leading to existing home sales reaching a 13 year low that that was like, I saw that repetitively being spoken about at Bloomberg as well. What do you think is going to happen there? It's in the UK or the US? US. Okay, so I think the situation in the US is very different to the one in the UK. Reason being is that in the US, they've got 30 year fixes. Whereas in the UK, I think on max is five. Yeah. Now there's loads of five year fixes that are rolling off. I think around October time here and also into next year. So the situation in the UK is probably much, much worse than the situation in the US. And the one thing that I think is going to be very, very troubling for the UK is I hope to God people don't end up putting themselves into five year fixes again when they have to refinance because they want security. I think that will be a massive, massive drag on the UK for the next five years. I guess as well though, there's those in the US that could refinance for 30 years, but I don't know how many of those there are, you know, there's probably many home buyers that have taken out mortgages what two years ago when rates were lower, you know, so and then fixed it for 30 years. I don't see the situation as being as precarious in the US as here. And also there's not the same structure products trading as back in 2007 as well, which was obviously a major issue for the likes of AIG. It's a tricky one. It's a tricky one to deduce because, you know, Warren Buffett's got long home builders again. I have a view that the real house price crash will occur in 2026, not the next year or two. Again, I think that's when the time lags sort of match in, you know, that I think that 25 to 50 month, I think it's the 50 month period like the upper bound is when the real house price crash will occur from when the interest rate mechanism really kicks in. Who knows though, but you know, it's such a tricky time actually. I think maybe when we get to September and we see, you know, slightly more liquid markets, we might have a better idea of things because I can't deduce for the last two, three weeks, there's been some really odd moves like even today looking at the dollar, I know there's been some some rubbish data out of Asia, China and Japan, like Japanese exports got got hit. I think they've turned negative for the first time since 2021. The China stuff, you know, obviously shook the hang saying, but he got bid up nice and quickly in early trade. But I think there's yeah, there's there's a lot of stuff out there that seems really, really illiquid. The dollar has just gone crazy today. The euro's down at one spot 08 and a half, I think it's the last time I saw it. Aussie down. It's yeah, I feel like it's very much August markets and it's difficult to deduce what people's true behavior is for the next quarter. So September, people are back from the Hamptons, people are back from the South of France. Maybe we can see what their real thoughts are from some of these asset managers and what direction they want to take it. But the euro is this is probably one of the most underspoken assets out there at the moment FX pairs. Because if you draw a trend line, right, and I'm only in favor of trend lines when they're over such a long period from, I think about 2008, maybe 2005, and I've got the chart in my head, but I can't remember the specific years, but we just came off an almost two decade trend line from about one spot one, two, maybe I think it's like one spot one, two and a half. And we're heading down now. Yeah. And every single time we've gone and touched that line, the euros plummeted, which makes sense in the current context as well with Germany really facing issues. And especially if your currency weakens, you know, it's meant to induce demand. So that's definitely one to look at as well and keep an eye on over the next year or so, I think I think the euro is in a lot of trouble. I really, really do. The euro, the eurozone economy just looks decimated. And I think there's a nice sort of parity, not parity trade, a nice relative trade there between the euro and the Zloty. So the Polish Zloty, I think the Polish Zloty and Poland in general has a good amount of support and a good amount of upside. Yeah. Yeah, I'm a big, big ball on Poland to be fair. Not that that's part of the discussion today. Yeah, it's interesting that you mentioned about the dollar, certainly seen it break out that I think it suits the Fed because you're tightening financial conditions with the bonds also going up. I think it's the direction they want to see. Dollar go up, bonds go up, equity markets go down. That's been the case over the past couple of days, but you said it's so volatile, so much choppiness happening in the market. So people can't expect what's going on. They can't build these correlations that they've probably built before. It's so weird. I think that's the word that we could use for that. I guess kind of a leeway into the inflation narrative that we spoke about in the US where we saw oil prices and natural gas prices, maybe not today since the conversation that oil supply remains tight to Saudi Arabia and Russia extend supply cuts, etc. But these are bound to trickle down into inflation at some point in the future. So I know we're looking at unemployment, that's the most important bit. But if you start to see inflation go back up because of all these different discussions, the Fed have no other choice but to go back into rate increases, do you think? Again, I think it certainly comes down to how much they think they've done already. Yeah. But also what the market believes, the market can go out there and price where the Fed's terminal rate might be in say six months. I think they look at what the market believes quite a lot. And I think, yeah, in the context of if inflation is creeping up, it matters from where? Let's say it's from wage growth. Okay, why is that wage growth creeping up? What is allowing wage growth to creep up? Are credit spreads decreasing off the back of that wage growth, which means that companies are actually in an okay position perhaps? You know, there's so many different components to that question that, as I said before, the underlying components of that inflation of really what matters. It's like in the UK, for example, with the NHS bonuses, okay, that led to high wage growth. But what does that actually mean for inflation? Is that something that you react to with policy, or is it something that you just say, that's an anomaly, let's kind of leave it alone, because unemployment is up 4.3% versus expected 4%. So yeah, the whole context matters a lot more than just inflation is creeping up. Like if it was coming from, it's like if inflation were coming from, I don't know, gas prices, like that might be something that you say, oh crap, we might have to raise rates a little bit again, because it's shown perhaps that demand's there. I don't know, it's such a tricky question to to kind of make an answer to. And I guess this is where I have sympathy for Central Bankers because they have to really look at all of this stuff and say, oh god, no matter what we do, we're going to get it in the neck from a whole group of people. Everyone's going to call us wrong, everyone's got to shout their opinion out. Moving into, let's ignore August, going into September, September until December, what's your outlook? What are you really looking for, and what is your advice to traders, day and swing traders, what to look for, how to base their decisions, how to approach this market, still expecting a lot of volatility? Well, I think I've been mentioning UK disinflation quite a lot to my guys, because I think the energy price cap has been a massive, massive support to UK headline inflation, you know, it's really, really kept it up there. They probably could, because the way that I figured it out was that, you know, a Nat gas supplier, or an energy supplier is probably going to hedge their demand or hedge their prices over 12 months. So the peak in Nat gas was August last year. So I said to the guys, though, I think, you know, from July onwards, we're going to start seeing disinflation in the UK. So that means inflation is still there, but it's a slower pace, right? That's something that so many of you will get caught out and they're like, oh, we're in deflation because prices are going down. I'm like, no, they're still increasing just at a slower rate. But yeah, so those hedges probably rolled off in July-ish, which meant that you could start to see alleviation in the energy price cap. And now what we're seeing is every single month that energy price cap is going lower and lower. What does that what actually mean for headline inflation? If the cost for people is going down by like 10, 20% a month, it's flattening down. So what's the potential trade there? You know, if we see that UK bond yields are reacting to in the short dated stuff, they're reacting to say the two years reacting to the dampening inflation, meaning the interest rates might not hold higher for longer based on that inflation. You might be able to sell the pound, you know, versus say the euro, any kind of parity that might be achieved, you know, the euro inflation is decreased quite a lot. There's been a lot of the disinflation in the eurozone. So you want to kind of trade that one where there's the biggest parity. So you don't necessarily want to be selling the pound versus the dollar on this one. You probably want to be selling the pound versus maybe yen, but probably euro for me. And I hate saying that because I hate the eurozone. But there's there's also a kind of a flip side to that argument as well, which is how bad can the eurozone really get, which might mean that, okay, forget all that, we actually buy the pound versus the euro. So there's those two arguments that I have at the forefront, and that's basically what I'm balancing out going into September. Is the euro getting really, really bad? Is UK inflation remaining sticky? If UK inflation slips heavily, okay, we buy the euro versus the pound, go against consensus. If the euro, sorry, what did I just say there? If it slips heavily? Yeah, yeah, that's right. If we start to see a real deterioration and even worse deterioration in the eurozone in say Germany, yeah, Fort was more, France, Fort was more than we want to be, you know, offering the euro versus the pound heavily. But at times like this, when I'm uncertain, I like to focus on what I can see around me. You know, I've said that I'm not too sure about what's really going on through August because it's quite a liquid, but I like to then focus back closer to home and say, okay, I can see what's going on in the UK. What can I play against what I can see alongside the UK data versus, you know, other assets perhaps. So that's kind of the position that I'm taking and why I'm so focused on the UK. Yeah, it makes more sense to me. Yeah. You mentioned a lot of cross currency pairs there. Is that your preference typically that you kind of look at what's going on between, you know, the Swiss and the yen, et cetera. Yeah, I think FX just lets you because if you think about what FX is, let's say you're selling equities, what are you selling equities for in the US? For dollars, right? If you're selling European equities, say it's a, you know, German stock, you're selling it for euros. So there's always a flow of currency going on no matter what you're doing. Unless you're doing it like a equity swap or something like this, which no one's going to do. But I think FX is the purest form of trade commerce at the end of the day. And you can translate into so many things like, okay, if the dollar's weak, what's likely to happen to oil? Oil is likely to go up. And then from that, those very simple sort of correlations, you can say, okay, here's the foundation of my view, right, dollar's weak. What other contexts can I add that is going to give me the best risk to reward? Is it to go long oil? Is it to go long gold? Yeah. Is it to go long equities? You know, what is the context saying? And I think that's the way I like to look at things. Definitely take it from an FX perspective first. So it's really hard, trading's hard the other day. I have and tend to have much longer time frame these days. I don't day trade. I think it's crazy, unless there's like a really good opportunity that I can see. But yeah, it's definitely from an FX basis that I like to take things. Nice. You mentioned gold. That's really interesting. Because as the dollar strengthens now, you find that gold going back down, I think it's trading right under. I can't remember. I think it's, yeah, I can't remember now, but it's gone down quite significantly. You think there's going to be a bounce at some point? I think gold's obviously negatively correlated with real yields. Real yields are ticking up. So that's why gold's going down. I think that's the simple relationship. And I think at certain times, I don't know if we can mention it, but Bitcoin has a similar relationship too. Bitcoin tends to be a hedge against the minus supply increasing, which is quite ironic because Bitcoin has hate the Fed, but they couldn't live without the Fed. So I think, yeah, that's just the simple relationship between gold and real yields at the moment. It's been an absolute pleasure, man. Thanks very much for your time. Appreciate it. Love that.