 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the Tiger Technician Hour with your host Basil Chapman call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 on this eighth day of March this is Tuesday we down a hundred and ninety nine in the doubt down 205 down 207 there's some bees down 32 remember yesterday in the Chapman methodology we're always looking for at least from a bi-signal to a bi-mode you want to get to at least the fourth highest peak and that's peak D peak A is one peak B is higher highest peak B next highest peak is peak C then you get peak D you can go higher but D is where that's really kind of a target that's what you say that's the bi-signal should go to a bi-mode and the bi-mode implies at least four higher peaks look at the stop dead right on the 200 period exponential moving average but you remember yesterday during my show look right here we're doing the show and I said oh look there's a left side right side price time match blah blah blah but I said also we've got a little doji candle at a peak D in the 10-minute chart at 43 25 25 and it was just above the 200-period moving average and then it came down what it had come down to came to down to about 41 80 and then it ran into peak C1 C2 double top pulls back to a low low that was a low that was at about 130 this morning then goes to another peak C1 C2 but the closer you get to a 200-period exponential moving average is the 10-minute E-mini the closer you get the greater the chances are that you're going to touch that 200-period moving average well we touched it and now we are down in the futures down 36 points and what I see to subscribers we have no new trades today all we want to do is protect what we've got and look very closely at the levels because if 20 let me go back to the down right here because if Dow 20 32,750 gets taken out that's a big problem there should have been some kind of a rally based on many other factors but not based on this chapter wave arch formation what is this arch formation no wonder if I can do that let me just move this to the to the left move that to the right click on this for those of you are new to my work of course we're getting a lot of people not a new people coming in especially the Tigers Den look the pattern that I look for is either straight up or straight down that's number one number two is a cup formation number three is an arch formation you can get a mix of one and two and one and three in this particular case the red H pattern says be careful because if you take out this left side low you can go a lot lower here we are 32,589 down 225 points in the Dow that 32,272 now that we've taken out the low of the 24th of January 33,150 the next level of support is 32,272 doesn't it doesn't have to there's no rule it just says just be careful because that's the dreaded H pattern in this this right side slide like a slalom it just accelerates downs like one of those X games where you're looking at those those folks dropping from a helicopter and going down the unbelievable mountain slopes the momentum that you build up to the downside only stops when you really find some tremendous support there is no support yeah got to be careful and that's applies to the weekly chart that applies to the monthly chart and the month has only really begun we're only this is the 8th of March so let's hope that something can happen and one of the things that we're looking at here it can't happen if you're going to have crude oil trading at 128.52 you can talk all you want you can have all these political programs to help the needy to help the poor to help anyone is struggling financially but if you don't have prices of things people need all the time like gas like heating oil like your grocery price in fact there are some products of the grocery stores that are in short supply that is the crux of the matter and that means that this is not just a near term thing that's going to be resolved by something that sounds really positive it has to be constructive and watch this chart this is crude oil look at this chart in the monthly chart right here we have just smashed through any resistance that was at the hundred level and one of the things I was talking about some time ago and I said you know how dumb is that I have a rule of thumb and it's just a rule of thumb but it's a rule that you can you can't take it to you can't say this is this is absolutely a golden rule it's just kind of something that happens so often that prices of anything that especially in the stock market that go to 95 96 in a very short while if the momentum is still there just go right through to 103 to 105 well crude oil did that last month the higher last month was a hundred hundred point five four in the continuous contract it is twenty eight percent higher today it is up just on the day it's up seven point six up nine dollars and one twenty eight fifty four that means it's tackling the high that was made that was a whole series of highs back in 2010 and 2011 that went to and I I'm giving you these prices they get smoothed out so everything about the chart everything about it except the price is accurate because that gets changed but the price that we will talk about right now is a hundred and forty four way back in May of 2011 that whole area and that was coming down from Russia invades Georgia first of August 2008 to the 12th of August that was 12 days I would say we're a little bit more than 12 days into the into Ukrainian invasion and here we are that was a high July of 2008 at 219.41 I don't type the pricing because it gets smoothed out but everything except the price of notation a peak Dean the Chapman wave plummets down from that level in July 2008 to the lower February of 2009 and that was on this particular basis 92 so you're going from a hundred and 219 to 92 I would say that's more than a cut in half all right that's the issue that's the issue if you're looking at wheat let me just move this aside did I put that yes if you're looking at wheat dust wheat look at this it is down 33 cents today but that's off the heating 1363 1363 leg E and that's why I said to subscribe I think we're real close to some form of a little bit of a digestive phase in some of the commodity areas but look at this you had you had look at that right here is limit up on the 4th of March goes to 1294 the next day that's yesterday the limit up at 1294 oh sorry that was 1209 next day was yesterday 1294 and today it hits 1363 and is still above the gap from two days ago are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio Tom O'Brien is here to help Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years a frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC Tom O'Brien found a TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you Tom's daily market newsletter market insights is published every morning when the markets open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to 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or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be TFNN educating investors free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 hi folks we're back so let me just show you this is just a little shot of Pete Vinnie right there about 7 10 I think this must have been last night comes all the way down ready to peak deep pulls back makes another peak D and then you get this rogue wave to the upside where all the technicals are negative and suddenly pops up and then it plunges down and it comes from the 42 Travis area down to it's called a 41 80 and now we're at 41 41 80 41 60 and now we're at 41 79 so one of the things I'd say to subscribers to my opening call this morning is I had a chapter wave ching gauge a very low reading yesterday which suggested that the Dow should early very early on near the open should go negative so from the open you expected that should go negative before any system or sustained rally can be attempted well it looked like that was a complete miss but in fact after being up 140 or something in the futures the Dow did open and actually did rally and then it turned down and it came down sharply so now at this particular point this is more or less when you would start to get where the administration starts to leak a couple of things from the potential speech that's coming up in another now it's less than it's about 40 minutes at 30 minutes or so 25 minutes and this is where the market starts to say hey hey hey maybe there's some good news and a source to rally so to say that the arch formation that dreaded H pattern was saved by the bell well the bell hasn't rung but absolutely so now the market is free to have some kind of a breathing room for a little while until some of the facts out we'll see what happens now absolutely within the context of what we're looking at here these are the areas that I think are important I spoke about how the command how crude oil absolute imperative how that is an imperative because eight months ago nine months ago ten months a year ago there was in the strategy of any administration you have to look to see who your friends are who the people are friends that you can trust who you the friends that mmm they good friends but you know what I wouldn't trust my life on that person and who who are the countries that have their own independence and are therefore a little bit more able to coalesce on your own projections and thoughts etc. I think that's really difficult at this particular time and therefore the strategy should have been that yes of course you want to talk about the environment of course you want to talk about global warming but you have to put into perspective of life and you have to say I'm running a country and the country's resources are absolutely imperative to the to the security financial humanitarian and health of the country and therefore we have to consider things that might be politically ungainly there might even be politically disastrous but you've got to consider them and that's the thing that concerns me the most is I don't know how we're going to deal with something that we absolutely need if we want some form of independence it's all very well saying bring production here back to America etc. you can talk about that but when oil prices are going through the not through the roof it's through the skyscraper that is really difficult to control and that's the reason why I said yesterday I'm going to jump to this to see that this is a leg E going to peak E in the monthly chart but look at the S&P and the big question for me has been for a while based on everything I'm looking at and based on my Chapman wave methodology having looked at easy half a million charts probably a million charts notated over the last 30 40 years that I've been doing the notation of the Chapman wave what is that is that really a peak B in the monthly chart that's about to come about when Chapman wave methodology that low of 21 91.86 on March the 20 in 2020 was the low minus 35% correction what do you mean bear market from 33 93 in February 2020 to March is low the speed I think what we're looking at now is time and probably price is there a chance that somehow some way in 2022 the market turns and we break to the 4820s to start a new leg C that's been the big question and the question is I'd said that everything about the Chambering methodology suggests that that should happen even now consider what's happened since even the 1st of January or when the when the markets most of the markets made their highs back at the turn of December to January December last year January this year when you think of what's going on to be down at 41 88 right now when you had 4818 three months ago that's that's fantastic action in a week's time we might not be saying that if we're down 40 down at 488 or 3988 but right now so you have to consider that a tremendous amount of geopolitical and economic negativity has transpired yes we came out we were pretty much out of covert right now hopefully and yet the market has been so stellar look at this stellar all right what we're looking at here is that this wick of the candle of last month is being tested and there's a pretty long good chance that we will go to 41 14.65 for the real test in the S&P but if we have only begun the whole extrapolation of an aberration in oil prices an aberration in grocery price growth just the whole sector of the commodity sector with grains because the DBA pulling back probably today a little bit yeah down 18 cents at 2206 I mean this is the DB agricultural fund so unless this really starts to go from 2205 and starts to trade below 20.80 in the next three weeks those commodity prices are going to be they're going to be pretty I wouldn't say devastating we don't know but they're going to be critical to people's pocketbooks so that's the reason why I'm saying I have said that I would consider last week that if you were in trying to put money to work over a period of time I said use months in which to average down and that is your plan I'm now saying I would take off a little bit of that to put back into cash because of the uncertainty I I'm not here to say Chadwick methodology at peak B says you should go to a C what if we go down to 3,000 and over the next 18 months we go to 5,000 in the S&P that would be still leg C that would be the Chapman Wake methodology working do you want to take that risk that peak the leg down off the peak B is very sharp I'm saying under these conditions and those are a number of people that email me to say what should we do and I'm just saying hey it's not wrong it's money management to say under these conditions take a little bit off I'll do that you having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with become an apex predator in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den trading room only at tfnn.com the Tigers Den is an 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This is this is tough stuff. Okay. Bonds. Bonds are trading right where did I type that in? I probably typed into the gen by mistake. I did. Sorry, again, the US. This is at US. So bonds are at this point down to almost three points. That means the rates today are going higher. That means that that 200 period moving average and exponential moving average in the daily at $159.5 was the repellent in a leg D. Remember leg D the fourth highest peak is where other things can happen. This is the saving grace here would have been if the TLT bonds the human 20 year treasury bond fund instead of being at $137 right now was over the 200 period moving average of $144, $145. It was over it and yields were coming down because that would say at least for the moment that one of the things is off the table. One of the things meaning with the Fed coming out with Fed speaker over the next couple of days, I mean, really within these conditions, do you think that? Wow, can you imagine power? What? What a challenge. I mean, it's the same as the President at this particular point. What a challenge out there in the world. And for the for for Fed chair, the natural thing is to say we should be raising rates. We've had all these economic reports that are really fabulous. We've had actually earnings that are terrific. Tell that to Shopify all these earnings. Even they had pretty darn good earnings, etc. And look at them going from 1762 down to the price today of 530. $60 per cent down, Shopify Inc online store for individuals to use as a platform. This is just telling us that the conditions at this particular point right through the different sectors. I like to look at Salesforce only as a proxy for being a company in an area that I don't know if they invented it, but they certainly in terms of selling and marketing are the Premier Company, Salesforce.com, Cloud Computing, 311 in November and trading right now at 192 with 184 the lowest and 24th. Where is and they came out with absolutely superb earnings and they're getting new customers and trillions. They're talking about trillions. I don't know down 100. So this means in the right. Can you imagine when we finally get a buy signal? What's going to happen? It might be it might be a minute and we shoot up 25 to 3000 points in the down and then you have to digest those gains. So at any point, I don't think there's a problem saying, you know what, I'm afraid I'll miss the low. You know, if you miss the list, just go to the down for the moment. If you miss the low, well, you know what, I think a lot of people would be happy if we just got back. What is today? Today is Tuesday. And it's not Tuesday. It's Tuesday. Just the first hour of trading. I would love if we got back to maybe last Thursday's high of 34,179 in the day, 34,170. Look how quickly we've come down and look how we're accelerating right now. This is the this is the dreaded age pattern where the last part of the right side of the arch just zips down. I hope it stops very soon because this could get really ugly. So this is what I'm saying. So I'm trying to deal and I want you to spend today. I wanted to take some time because I've had so many questions about it. And one of the reasons why I said we have raised cash, we've talked about cash for a long time. We've got other positions that we're trying. I don't mind them as just one, just two, maybe even three percent, very small entries and we can get taken out or they hold. This is a period where I think cash, at least for us, is king. And because of that, what we need to look at is start preparing over the next couple of weeks areas that you would like to get in for the long term. But you need to find some stabilization. In other words, even those stocks that we talk about all the time, like the DocuSign that's gone from 314 to today's low of 92, anyone who's in these stocks and has held them, you don't have to talk about a bear market. That is just the worst kind of bear market because you had an opportunity to get out. But the mindset was that these are fantastic companies, electronic signing. Who isn't doing electronic signing? I mean, what would be wrong with that? What's wrong with that is when the environment changes and you are out, it's like the media. I don't want to talk about the media today. I've talked about the media enough. You've got to treat the media with disdain and distrust. I think which side of the spectrum you're on, divide it in half and then divide again. Do your own homework because what you're hearing very often is just what they want to, whoever wants you to hear, it's easy. And I know that from people that I talk to all the time. I know they're political thinking and I know that they are listening to certain programs or shows and that kind of thinking means that they're just not getting a broader spectrum of both sides of the coin. And that's all I'm saying. I want both sides of the coin. I don't care how good or bad it is, I just want to hear it. And that's changed. For me, the media, there's really not much difference when they talk about, when they talk about confining ones or limiting ones. It's out there, but you really have to search for it. But one's choices. That's all. So, here we go. With that said, VIX index. And one of the things that is really quite important to me is the slowness of the VIX within these rectangle formations, making a cup formation, going to higher highs. How that, when you think that the market in the last four, five sessions has just gone straight down and yet the VIX index is still reluctant to break into the forties. It's a 37-18. This is telling you that there's just been a slow buildup of fund managers who are buying some kind of protection or they're playing a trend that they see and it's not letting up. None of the big rallies that we've seen has seen the VIX go back down under the 25 area. And there is a 37-21. So, no matter what is said in whatever the conference or news conference or if it's just a speech given, in the next from quarter to 11 or whatever, whatever the present makes the announcements, if the volatility index later in the day starts to drop from 37 to 35, 30 and hold at that low, in the low 35, not 36, in the 35s, with the Dow suddenly instead of being down 161 right now, holding 230 to 260 points, the S&P instead of being down 34 is actually up 45 to 50 points. That is what you want to see with some kind of a turnaround that has at least endurance since you go into Wednesday and Thursday a couple of days. That's what you'll need. So, whatever is said, you want the response of the market to proportion to move in the direction of what's ever seen. I'll be back in a moment. That's what's happening. Thank you, Mr. Zahar. Dow's down 180 points and he's down 37. Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area, including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa and Clearwater markets? Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area. Whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property, Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay Area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels. 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The Prospectus or Summary Prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, Four Side Fund Services, LLC. Watch Tiger TV. Hi folks, so enough talking other than to say question came here, so does this mean you're selling some of your diamond long position? No. The diamond long position, let me just do this from the, I'll go to the Dow chart right now, that was bought, the low that was made on March the 23rd of 2020, we bought options and kept rolling them for a long time, but in April the first week of April after that low, we actually also bought the Dow diamonds, but we've taken some of our, got a core position, that core position from the level down at about the equivalent of, what was it, I think I said, I've got it written down here, Dow diamonds long at $210.99, third of April, that was at about, I'd say it was under $21,000, that I'm, I am still convinced that the whole aspect of the general public coming into the market, et cetera, that has to still culminate. So if it, look, when I was talking about all these things, there wasn't an aspect of war, that's come about over the last three, four weeks, but what's really important is that war, and I think some of you might have seen Steve Rhodes did a great job, he showed charts at some point, he was showing charts of what happens to the market during war periods, it ain't pretty, at least for a while, it ain't pretty. And then after a while, the market gets used to it, and that's actually, I am talking right now, I wanted to say, markets get used to certain things. A market, when people say a market hates uncertainty, I say every single day there's uncertainty. No, the market hates uncertainty about uncertainty. You go once removed, and you got a real problem. We are three times or more removed. Why? Because we've got the interest rates, just as a factor sitting there, because the Fed could mess things up or they could do the right thing. We don't know even what it is. That's number one. Number two is, crude oil on its own would be a massive reason to think that you could even get some kind of stagflation. Well, you add that to the grains, none of this can be resolved. Ukraine, the farmers aren't going to get back to where it is to say everything's fine. I think by next week we get all our grain, no. These things take time. So what I'm saying is that diamonds, I don't think we're going back down there. I think we've got a huge consolidation going on, and if we ameliorate the downside, I'll never forget once, and I could be wrong about the name. I think it was general foods. I think it was general foods. I was in the Dow, and there was takeover, and I had a sell signal, and the market should have gone down huge, but because of that one stock that, you know, it's price weighted, because of that one stock, it held the Dow for months. All right, let's say at least for three months, so that by the time the consolidation everything was done, when the market got going again, it went from a higher level, the base of support had risen. It shouldn't be much lower down, but the one stock changed that. So what I'm saying is if we can use a whole bunch of time and whatever it takes to at least ameliorate the terrible situation, I'm not even talking about the humanitarian side in Ukraine, because the question came in about when Ukraine is, when things are settled, well, I was listening to a talk last night by someone who is really experienced in the whole area of the Ukraine and Putin in particular, talking about he's been isolated for two years, he's been in his dush hour or whatever they call it, he's summer home or winter home. He has fewer and fewer friends. I don't know about all that stuff. This is here, so we can't really tell whether that's true. Maybe it is, but he is isolated and he's making decisions that are perhaps this is the one time that he's really making wrong decisions. He is ruthless to the core. Therefore, we don't know what the Ukraine situation is, as it is. I can't stand when I'm looking at it. I remember with Croatia or Lebanon, I don't care where it is. When you're looking at beautiful homes, just homes, I don't have to be beautiful, but homes suddenly being decimated. One minute this is great, lovely building. Next minute, boom, it's gone. People can't live in it anymore. That is a tragedy, a human tragedy, when lives are taken like that. I don't see how this is resolved. It's going to be a series of resolutions, and hopefully some or other, and even the talking of whatever is going on. There should have been no talking. Plains should have been given to Poland. Whatever it is should have been done quietly. I mean, when you're dealing with a bully, you don't say, hey, Mr. Bush, look, yeah, come and hit me. You turn around, you do every subterfuge you can to have them looking the wrong way, because when they get smacked, they come down hard, and we should have done it. And then once it's identified that Ukrainians are not using whatever it is they're using, then you can turn around and say, oh, yeah, by the way, two weeks ago, you don't say in a week's time at 12.45, you don't give times like that. There's a certain strategy, and that's what the market doesn't like. The market doesn't like that it cannot see a particular strategy working. So that's why I'm saying, yes, it's SMHs. One of our benchmarks, when the SMHs go to all-time highs, the market generally does that. When they fail just to go to all-time highs, it means that there's a stalling formation, and the market's probably going to have a bit of trouble. When they go to lows, it says, be careful, this is our benchmark. Semiconductors are the oil of the 1900s into the early 1900s. So semiconductors and the form of semiconductor is the energy source for the entire economies of the world going into the 21st century, where we are. So to see this deteriorate like that, I've been saying all the time, semiconductors are telling us there's a problem, and they themselves have a problem. So the semiconductor index is at 242. It's made a lower low. The highs that were made up at the 320 level, goodbye. It's on its way down. Look how it's filled in the wicks of the candles. The month is young. Yeah, it could be a bounce, but it's already gone underneath the lows that were made last summer. So we've just got to be careful, and that's really what I'm saying. Please just think of yourself as being at the mercy of a lot of things that are activating the market's direction. That's all. Okay, let's go on. We've got to go through questions came in. Let's just run them down. Could I look at GE? Yep, GE. This is a company. I'm kind of intrigued. I think GE is in some kind of a sweet spot, as opposed to where it was. But that sweet spot might not be recognized, at least for another maybe a month or two. And Australia in 1986 said that whole area of 150s that it kept trying for made the double top, and now it's coming down. Just be real careful. That's GE. And yeah, a couple of questions came in that I, you're right now. Let's just stick with CCJ, a question in the 10. Yep, CCJ. This is, CCJ is coming out for the radiant energy, trying to get a nice pop to the upside here. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis. And it's not just dry, tedious text either. 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Okay, so the dollar, the dollar should be pulling back a tad from the high. Yep, it's pulling back just a tad. It's a 9908. We went to a new recovery high yesterday. This is, remember, the fixed index, that is your fear factor for the market. Gold is the fear factor for the geopolitical scene. The dollar is the currency of favor in this particular environment because it's part of the US economy. And I try to think of these separately. The bonds are now kind of stuck between what the Fed should do, what the Fed can't do. To try to isolate these things, we've just had a big spike and now the dollar is up 14 S&Bs only down six. Coming up to the speech, you know that whatever's going to happen is they're going to try to, you have to give it at this point to the market needs some positivity. So you've got to get a positive something. We'll see how long the rally, I hope the rally lasts. So we need a rally. Gosh, this is unfortunate. Okay, make it as clear as I can. The VIX index needs to start. If there is a sustained, if there is going to be a sustained rally, you want to see the VIX index, vix.x, there we are. Come on. You want to see the VIX trading not at 3612. I don't know why this is not coming in correctly. I must probably messed up something. You want to see the VIX index start to slide and must go to the low 35s and the market, the down is to be up about 100, really 200 something points off the three o'clock to sustain a move that is. Sorry about that right background chart. We'll just try it one more time. I'm going to wrap up now. I'll be back with Tom O'Brien later on this afternoon and don't forget great programming coming up later in this event next. And you've got thinkorswim, see you road, statewide, Tom O'Brien, see you later.