 Okay, hello, and welcome back to the channel. Hope you had a great weekend and not too much in the way of major Market-moving information coming out this weekend more so a look ahead for the week because of course we've got US CPI coming out on Tuesday, it's really the highlight of the week We've also got US retail sales housing and starts permits weekly jobless claims And we've got also major UK economic data throughout the week jobs date on Tuesday CPI Wednesday and retail sales on Friday as well So before I begin if you're new to the channel, if you like what you hear don't forget to like and subscribe to the video But let's dive straight in and talk about US CPI and this is what we can see here the year-in-year figure on My screen right now and although US inflation you can see here is being quite clearly Trending lower since we peaked in the summer of last year You can see we've gone from 9.1 all the way down to 6.5 percent economists have forecasted in January The decline will likely have moderated somewhat Owning to persistent price pressures particularly in housing and an uptick in the prices of energy and also used cars So let's just dive into that a bit more details So in terms of expectation a year-in-year is expected to have declined but again at a more moderate pace So instead of dropping like we saw last time 7.1 down to 6.5 is expected on a median consensus basis on the street to drop down on the year-in-year reading to 6.2 percent That would represent though the slowest rate since October 2021 but the smallest decrease in the annual rate since September going back to here Higher petrol prices is expected to have boosted the the top headline rate Looking over at the core figure. So that's what we're looking at here You can see we peaked up in the last 12 months readings going back to September last year at 6.6 last time out We were down at 5.7 This core reading of course is what strips out things like volatile components like food and energy It's expected to slow to an annual rate of five point four percent down from five point seven High rents will have prevented a bigger drop though in core inflation as according to Barclays They're particularly putting a lot of emphasis on higher prices of used cars And that's been something that's been quite common amongst the bank research. I've read this weekend The jump in auto sales saw dealers raise their profit margins with car auction prices jumping around two and a half percent According to Mannheim data and given the high weighting of used Vehicles within the basket of goods and services to calculate consumer price inflation This could add around point one five percentage points to the month-on-month month rate on its own Irrespective of everything else. So yeah, definitely keeping an eye on this one of the key measures Of course of the week and at the moment as far as the market is priced looking at federal funds rate futures still around 91% or so looking for a 25 basis point rate hike Following the downshift that we've seen from the Fed more recently the next rate hike though Not coming for some time not until the 22nd of March Also from the US though, we do get retail sales. You can see here We've had two negative prints back to back and the last month the worst of the bunch that we've seen in the last 12 readings one of the first things that the Dutch bank ING their analysts are noting is the weather is going to be particularly Prevalent for this particular data point will get on Wednesday The reason why is that January activity data generally they say is going to be strong throughout the contrast They say between the weather in mid late December where it was incredibly cold versus a very mild January Couldn't be any more different essentially and that means that they'll be delayed consumption plus better weather Meaning more people are out and about which likely means then the likelihood it will lift January spending and we could see this more evident in this week's number We already know that auto sales are very strong I just mentioned that and that will likely lift the retail sales Quite a substantial amount anyway on its own in terms of the street consensus looking for around a 2% positive reading So you can see here quite reversal from what we had last two months And in fact if it comes out just in line with expectations that will put us back up at a 12-month high going back to the high We had a January of 2022 the other things in the US to look out for this week as I said Thursday You get your regular weekly jobless claims data January housing starts building permits also coming out on the same day pivoting over to the UK CPI of course going to be the main feature of the three major releases UK annual inflation Is expected to have slowed to a four-month low of 10.2% you can see here that would mark from a decline of 10.5 so it would be pretty consistent But still at a quite high level certainly when comparison to when we were just looking at the US Analysts at invest tech they expect inflation to have subsided further in January because of lower fuel prices and more intense competition among retailers amid ongoing easing of supply chain disruptions and of course the Squeezed disposable income situation with the cost of living crisis still biting very much So at this present point in time, however, just flipping this over to the core rate Analysts expect that's when stripping out food and energy to have slowed to just 6.2 percent So just point one lower. So still hanging around up at this most elevated level that we've seen it Despite the more persistent slow decline that we're seeing so you can see here inflation really is Hanging tough a lot more than what we're seeing here in the core inflation reading in the US and the top headline rate Which has come down pretty rapidly the UK? Definitely not mirroring that to the same degree or at least the same aggressive nature Couple of things there in recent policy meetings this being the Bank of England officials have said they're now closely monitoring indicators of inflation persistence To judge whether or not further tightening is needed Remember they in the ECB didn't downshift like the Fed they stuck at the 50 basis point mark with that in mind It's the service sector components of the inflation basket So once again, the devil is in the detail and if you are really looking at these more closely Definitely go on the office of National Statistics website like you would in the US comparable the Bureau of Labor Statistics look at the CPI date of table and look at the Individual line-by-line items on the different categories to really identify this because service sector components of inflation basket They're typically less volatile, but tend to experience more persistent trends. So think of things like housing services recreational personal services things like that Rather than things like food for example That would see quite high jumps these other points are much more sticky and that's probably a reason why the Bank of England Gonna have to hang tough a little bit longer with the fact that more people are leaning on Kind of still rate rising at this point comparative to the Fed Even though the Bank of England might stop raising them cutting seems a distant far away future Comparative to what markets are expecting the second half of this year for rate cuts in the US Other things in the UK to account for we do have jobs data It's released on Tuesday be screwed nice for signs of easing labor market tightness Analysts at ING expect average earnings growth X bonus to accelerate to 6.5% in December from 6.4% in the previous month So again another quite key thing here to monitor in the UK at why inflation has been so sticky And then retail sales on Friday in the UK real-term spending has fallen in 12 of the last 14 months in the UK And it's unlikely that January was any exception And if so that would point to a modest fall in GDP through the first quarter as the main likelihood So that is it. I'm not gonna go any further than that. Hope it was useful Just encapsulating some of the key things to look out for so best of luck, and I will see you next time. Take care