 Okay, let's get started. Got the risk warning on the screen in front of us, and we're all done with that. So it was an interesting week last week. What a good finish to the week in terms of stock markets. Obviously, in the UK, pretty obvious reason. We had the general election result, which was a bit of a shock to markets. And the number of shares, even in the benchmark, up close to 10%. And obviously, the FTSE pushing back into, it's all-time eyes, and you can see that reflected in our UK 100 chart. So this is the rising wedge pattern that we've had going for a while. Now, there's been a few variations on it, depending on which lows you connect. But using just the connection of these two lows, you can see we've pushed through it, but spiked way back above it again on Thursday. So it created quite a large hammer pattern, and then that got a follow-through on Friday when we got the election result. So we're just shy of this 7-1-20-type all-time highs that we saw earlier, sorry, later in April. And so that's the major barrier in front of us. But looking at the strength of the action over the prior two days, you'd imagine in the course of this week, I would posit we could see at least a challenge of that high again. Because we have this as a kind of steady uptrend. You can see here we're making steadily higher highs and higher lows. So I think you can confidently call this an uptrend on the weekly chart. And so that's generally a cause for bias to the upside. And just talking about a hammer on the daily chart, I mean, look at the tails on these candlesticks here. From last week, that is a huge reversal. So one thing to talk about here is actually why was there such a bit of a shock going into Friday? Well, obviously on the UK front, an element of concern about the election. There's not really been that evident this year. I think one thing you could talk about perhaps is that the putsy has made new records this year. So hardly indicative of major fear in the market about the election. But you could maybe argue that the progress has not been as much as it could have been when you look at, for example, the German DAX or the Germany 30 as we trade it, that's in massive gains this year. The putsy's been a bit more stumbly. So maybe now the election's out of the way. Even though we're not direct beneficiaries of ECB QE, putsy could still tend to do a bit of a catch-up here, especially given that the Germany 30 has come off of it. So that's consideration. So that's the election. It was generally positive for markets. We've got a bit of a question coming up as to whether that positivity can follow through in the longer term. That's a UK-specific thing, but you'll see that there were some more global issues. This is a daily candlestick chart for the German fund. And you can see that not just last week, but really the sort of beginnings of the week before, you know, we've got a massive uptrend in bond markets basically pre-empting and following the announcement of ECB QE, in which the ECB obviously buy bonds, and everybody's front-running that in the market. And we've reached very close. So this is the bond price. We reached very close to 0% bond yield on the German bond. Almost went negative on the 10-year German bond, but it didn't quite get there, and we've seen a massive reversal since. And basically bond markets were collapsing last week. And that doesn't mean that equity markets have to collapse, but really, like we saw with oil prices, any time a market, which is a big major market, is collapsing, you know, that affects sentiment inequities, even if there's not a direct implication. And in this case there is. I mean, bond prices are going up because of QE, stocks are going up because of QE, very simply put. And so the fact that bonds dived like this wasn't just in bonds. Maybe come back to this chart in a second, but we can also see that it was in guilt. Less heavily so. This has maybe been a bit of a longer-term process happening, but we did break through that low, and this is something of a kind of failed higher high, and then basically a lower high, and then a lower low. So below the moving averages, below this rising trend line, in gilts, suggests that we could have higher interest rates to look forward to in the U.K., and similar thing in U.S. Treasuries, and trading them through the T-bond and the T-note ten year. Now, this is a, you know, again a huge, huge hammer on this daily candlestick here. But if we look at the weekly chart, it's closed well back into the middle of the range, but still a few really bearish-looking candlesticks. There's obvious support here. You know, I had these lines drawn in, this 30-episode fibo, these lines down here, this peak from the week of the 12th of October. So there is support in this area. It's not surprising to see about how long it can hold is open to question, because this has been quite a long-running uptrend, and a major correction there. Maybe that's the end of it. Maybe we've just flushed out a few week-olders, and we can travel up to the highs again, that's possible. But I think people are going to be pretty hesitant, and the risk is that we fail to push below, you know, above this previous support-turned potential resistance here. And we maybe could track back down again towards the 153 area, as I sort of alluded to in the older chart forum here. Typically, you know, when you see a sharp tail like that, oftentimes the next candle will come and test the body of the candle, but not dip into the tail. But I think because this tail is so long, and because the sort of speed of the move declined, and declined before, it's possible that we could jump back again, go back lower before perhaps moving higher in some sort of bottoming pattern. Obviously below this low, and all bets are off, and that could be serious again. So a slight deviation into the bonds, which is not something I typically cover a lot in these webinars, but definitely been a big factor in what's moving markets. And I think it will be again this week, we're seeing that the price is drifting lower a bit here, and you know, could be setting up for another spike in yields, and that could worry equities. And I think it is part of the reason that we're seeing lower levels thereabouts in Europe, and sort of a fuzzy looking open for US markets. Looking ahead, data-wise we had quite a big one over the weekend, obviously China cut interest rates, and that's why we can see the China A50 is one of the sort of few risers. Obviously the UK 100 is to some extent tracking alongside that, just because the mining companies in the UK tend to follow the activity in China. And that's helping the FTSE outperform. But otherwise, the other global markets not reacting too strongly to the rate cut. And I think, again, it's because of some of this softness in, well firstly in bond markets, and then all prices perhaps have put in a little intermediate term top. We could maybe jump into that. Well, since I've covered the UK, let's just have a look at Germany since we did mention that before. So trend line is proving quite instrumental at the moment across a few different markets. This is a trend line connecting four different lows, and the Germany 30s are definitely something widely watched. And that just in combination with the lows here in the early part of March, good sort of combination of support, and it's worked quite well. And we've basically bounced back into this cluster of moving averages and this broken rising trend line here. So cluster a bit of resistance in this area could mean another test of the lows in the Germany 30. Basically, the trend is just not as strong as it was. And so we've had a decent correction. Is that an opportunity or is it a sign that this really strong trend needs a really strong correction? 38.2% is not necessarily a massive correction. It could dip to 50 or even 61.8%, which brings us closer to this longer-term 55-week moving average. That would be surprising given that the ECB are still fully engaged in quantitative easing. So that does still provide a bit of a general bias to the upside in equities. But you've got to be aware that this correction is looking a bit dicey at the moment. I'll move back through that declining trend line, I think. And through this resistance, it would obviously show some strength in the market. And I think that would be what's needed to get back up to the highs and then possibly new records again. While we're below this area, I still think there's a bit of a bias to the downside. We look at US markets in very sideways, but it was a bit of a turnaround late last week. And we mentioned the UK aspect of it with the elections. Last week, we had the non-farm payrolls, and the number was largely a non-event. It basically was almost exactly in line with expectations, just 1,000 below expectations, which is the closest I've seen to consensus for a while. So not a particularly interesting result, but there was a drop in average earnings growth. Some of the fundamentals are a bit weak within the report, but still the headline growth was over 200,000 jobs created. So it was quite a good Goldilocks report that's still showing some of the US economy's improving, growing, producing jobs at a pace that the market's comfortable with, but not such a strong pace that it means an imminent hike in interest rates. I think it probably all but ruled out June as a possibility for hiking interest rates. September possibly still on the cards, but I would suggest it's probably going to be later. Markets, if you look at Fed funds futures, are basically pricing in a rate hike in December. So that probably seems like the most more likely scenario at this point. Technically though, we're at the top of this range. If we're attempting looking at this price action to believe that we're about to see a breakout, and we have seen a breakout at this cluster of highs, which to me is a positive sign, but still we have not quite seen that breakout yet. And so if you are along the market here, you're going in before the breakout really, and so you're getting a better price. If prices do eventually break out to the top side, but you're risking the fact that the market just rolls around back into this range trading that we've seen. So it's found a minor bit of resistance up at this March 24 peak. My feeling is that perhaps we could get back up to the all-time record, perhaps push a little new record, and then reverse back into the range again. It's kind of the way it looks like it could happen. And then maybe from there we could push on to higher highs and higher lows again. Still a general upward bias in US stocks, I think, but it's been pretty choppy during the earnings season. But we're getting to the end of the earnings season. This week and next week is a lot of retail stocks. That'll be important for the general sense of how the US economy is doing. But I think probably earnings season's not been quite as bad as some had hoped. And my sense, given the direction of the trend and given some of the key earnings releases, that probably we can move higher past it. But we do need to break these highs first, obviously, to confirm that it's actually taking place. Now, let's go up to currencies because there are a few important economic events happening this week which tend to affect currencies a bit more than the stock markets that have the other kind of factors that we've been discussing already. It's quite a big week for the British pound. Industrial production on Tuesday. And we obviously already just had the Bank of England today unsurprisingly kept rates of current levels, didn't interfere with the amount of assets purchased under QE. So no big surprise there. That really hasn't affected the pound too much. But what will is the Bank of England inflation report on Wednesday because then we'll hear a bit more about the thinking of the Bank of England, particularly post the election. Because there's a lot of speculation, particularly at the end of last year, about whether the rate hike would take place, maybe a bit before the election, a bit after. And there's rumors that there was actually a secret agreement between George Osborne and Mark Carney to keep rate hikes post the election. So believe it or not, that is what's happening at the moment. But we obviously do have the factor of all prices having pushed inflation really low. And general consensus at the moment is no rate hikes this year. But we have seen a bit of a bounce in all prices recently. So maybe those two dissenters could come back and vote for a rate hike again. We won't know that for a couple of weeks until we get those Bank of England minutes, which will be more important. But before that, like I said, we've got this Bank of England report on Wednesday. Wednesday's quite a big one in general because we have Chinese industrial production and retail sales. There were all two bellwether reports in terms of how well the Chinese economies performing. We've got that terrible trade data last week, pretty poor inflation data. That's why they cut interest rates. And so this data is generally expected to improve a little bit over the previous month. This is April's data, so it's expected to be a bit better than March. But be fully prepared for a downsized shock because that would be more in line with what we've been seeing recently out of China. We've got GDP release from Germany, as well as another few European nations. And then we have the unemployment rate and the average earnings data for the UK. So a few things happening on Wednesday, and that's followed up in the U.S. session by retail sales. So Wednesday's quite a big one. Otherwise, it's a little bit slower than the rest of the week, nothing that I would particularly point to on Thursday. A lot of the Europe's in holiday for the Ascension Day. And producer prices, I mean, it's a secondary report, really, for the U.S. on Thursday. And then U.S. industrial production on Friday. So given that's the case, given all those discussions, let's have a look at the sterling. And we are at quite a tipping point in sterling in my mind. So it's the one-minute chart, so it's just following up to the Bank of England. Not too much happened. So this is the daily chart. Actually, I think better, actually, in Morning Structure. I think we've already looked at this, but Morning Structure's looked at this weekly chart. This is a huge reversal candlestick at this declining trend line, pushed above, reverse-backed lower. The fact that we've undone that reversal candlestick just the next week is, to me, a pretty strong sign of strength in the market. Not to mention the fact that we have now closed above that declining trend line, which did pretty much capture three, you know, a couple of minor peaks in it over the week there. We're above this, you know, you can see it better on the daily chart that we pushed through, held these moving averages, and now we've pushed them broken up to the upside. Now, potential for a double top here, but my suspicion is that maybe we get a bit of a dip or not even, because the market's looking pretty, the pound's looking quite strong against the dollar right now. We could be in for a bit of a sea change, but some of this data that we see this week alongside the Bank of England is going to determine whether this gets a follow-through and breaks out to a longer-term upside trend, or, you know, if it's a false breakout and we reverse-backed lower, and with a little double top here. Also interesting to watch the Euro pound, because that's sort of starting to imply some relative strength for the Euro, but that all kind of got undone on Friday when we had that huge move higher in the pound after the election. And so what's starting to look like potentially a reverse or perhaps a little double bottom now is starting to look more like just another consolidation before a move lower. But again, we'll have to see. You can sort of do a sort of sketchy trend line through the two lows there. That could be a bit of an occasional weakness. But the fact that we just... There's basically a false break and a sort of dark cloud-covered type pattern here. Not quite engulfing that whole week, because that was obviously a strong week, but pushing through these lows would probably drop in further in Euro pounds. That big boost to the Euro, not really taking place against the pound, still potentially whirling against the Euro, against the dollar, sorry. Yeah, a bit of a complicated looking chart on first glance, but not really. We've broken this declining trend line. We've broke above this, this high here, which is something of a neckline for a double bottom pattern. So after having closed above it, we ran into this 21-week moving average and a very indecisive doji-type candlestick last week doesn't really imply the market's about to fly to the upside, and we are just banging into this supply zone here where the price has broke down back in February. So to my mind, we're most likely moving back down to retest this low again, just beneath 110, sorry, 111. This kind of critical area that we were able to break through. Down to there, we could get a move back higher again, but this sort of double top-type pattern in the RSI means that we could maybe dip down to this sort of demand area which is not altogether conclusive, but built off of just where we broke through this weekly candlestick here. So that form is about 106, I believe. 109 today, 106, yeah, that would be a bit more drastic. Dolly Yen, to my mind, is barely worth pulling up the chart at the moment. It's just a total range of our market. Similarly, on that same theme, I guess one chart that I had actually mentioned previously, and this is just not bearing out too well, is there was a potential double bottom here in the New Zealand dollar. That's just had a couple of false breaks, and the risk of a rate cut in New Zealand is really pushing this lower. If there isn't a rate cut, that'd be quite a surprise, and that could be the catalyst for getting us back above the break line, and maybe this pattern eventually working out, it's not looking too good right now. Basically a false break, it is declining trend line. Maybe some opportunities down here for a triple bottom, but yeah, this double bottom looking pretty poor at the moment. But what I was going to say is that before we move into, well as we move into commodities, gold is just total chop zone right now. For those who trade just gold, on the shorter term, there's a lot of movement happening, so there are opportunities. For those who have a slightly longer time frame, typically a sort of four hour daily time frame that I cover a lot on these webinars, a time frame perhaps more suited to someone who's not trading all day, then there's really this very difficult market to trade at the moment gold. There was potentially a inverse head and shoulders here. She wasn't able to get through the neckline, and then this trend line here has kind of been acting as the support right around that sort of 1-1-80, which is our long-term level of support, which is basically through these lows back here, and it kind of corresponds with where we kind of broke from the lows a couple of times through that area. It's 1-1-80 to some extent. It's still containing gold, but it's below these moving averages for the most part, and it's still kind of within this declining trend line, within this sort of triangle type pattern, but really until we get out of this, conclusively out of this trading zone between 1-1-80 and 1-2-20, just as you can, with the benefit of hindsight, if you're selling a 1-1-20 buying a 1-1-80, you know, there's been a few opportunities with a bit of a draw down here, but not much trending action here. And same with Dolly, and I just, you know, unless you're forced to trade it, why would you trade it? Let's just find some currencies with some distinctive directional movement. Silver, maybe a slightly clearer picture. We have this similar sort of triangle type pattern you can see on the weekly chart with a base of these kind of lows. Clear from the fact that it's difficult to trade at the moment, but it's contained within this triangle pattern. So, again, a sort of range trading technique of buying oversold, selling overbought, according to the pattern, is working to some extent. But, you know, once we get more of a conclusive breakdown from either this support, which is about 1550, or this declining trend line, you know, that would be the key trigger to some bigger movements in these markets, in these metals markets. But at the moment, I think just the uncertainty of the US dollar, and when exactly the Fed are going to hike rates, is causing the dollar to correct, but these metal markets, people are still hesitant to really buy into them, because they still think a rate hike is coming sometime. It's just causing them to go sideways. A more interesting market for now. Well, I quickly mentioned copper. It's not the most heavily traded, I know, but it's still one of the most traded instruments. And had quite a major breakthrough, which I probably mentioned last week, and we're still waiting for some follow-through on that. We're basically stalled at this 55-week SMA, and so possibility of a correction down to this quite strong former resistance, possibly turning future support, and then maybe a move higher. Because, again, it's a good example of where there was quite a strong pattern of this weekly reversal, which we've now, within the space of a few weeks, with a couple of long tails, and holding this rising trend line have closed just about back above. So potential for a stronger reversal in copper here. Hard to really see why it's happening because of the slowdown in China. You can argue that these rate cuts are going to eventually feed through to strengthening in the Chinese economy. Maybe the Chinese government are bending a bit on their determination to slow down the property market over there. If the property bubble just sort of pick up again, that's where copper gets a load of its demand. So potentially that, the Crudo is one of the biggest moving interesting markets at the moment, and we did get that breakout higher basically in anticipation of the drawdown in inventories. So we had the first, last week, we had the first weekly drawdown in U.S. inventories, U.S. oil stockpiles, and so it means they actually used more than they produced for the first time in four months last week. But the market had been pricing in in advance, and basically on the day we got a reversal, and we've been sort of following through to the downside since, and produced on a daily chart this evening start, evening doji start, potentially pattern, at the top of the trend, and we've had a break on this RSA trend line. So trend is still just about up. I would call this a quite a significant low for determining where the highs and lows are. Through there I think, which we're only just above at the moment, which comes in about 63.30. That I think could be the trigger for a slight change in trending or perhaps down to the downside. And if we do get down to the test, the bottom of the trend line, this channel, it's not the strongest channel ever, but the bottom trend line is strong. There's no real confirmation at the top, but the fact that we haven't been able to get up there and stall down to the beginning of this supply zone, created by this low over here, to me it's a bit of a sign of weakness, and people could start be looking at oil again in terms of just the general oversupply and lower demand from the likes of China. So that's it. I think I've covered most of the major bases here. Haven't seen any questions coming through, so I think we'll call it a day at that. Thank you very much for attending. Good luck trading this week. It's Jasper all signing out. Cheers.