 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Couple of big games coming up the next two nights in the NBA and the Stanley Cup finals We're gonna break down both those games game three between the Golden Knights and the Panthers and game four Between the nuggets and the heat today with Tom Vecchio picking his brain on the markets for those games and getting you ready for those Then I'll talk some NASCAR at Sonoma later on today. Welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire Joined here as mentioned by Tom Vecchio check him out on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom find his work over at number fire calm and Tom Last night game number three the nuggets kind of looked like what they did in game one What they looked like for part of game two as well Are we starting to think that that second half for the heat in game two was odd? Because it seems a bit odd based on the way things have gone outside of that so far Yeah, certainly a great performance from the nuggets I would say arguably their best game of the entire playoffs the heat have you know been a really good fourth-quarter team Not only through play us, but really throughout the entire year and it could just be you know They the nuggets thought they had some momentum in the first half of game two and then that kind of slipped a little bit You know you give an inch and a team takes a mile kind of thing So it could just be a bit of flukiness and the heat stole that quarter thus They stole the game, but the nuggets are looking dominant right now. They are looking real good. And I think the problem is Jamal Murray may have had like the quietest 30-point triple double in the history of a society last night because you have Murray 12 to 1 for MVP for the series and It kind of sucks for that future Tom when he goes 34 10 and 10 and Nobody's talking about it the next day because Nikolai Yokic did 30 20 and 10 Yeah, you know that was that was part of my like assumption like okay You know I spoke about like what if the heat sell out to try and like fully eliminate Yoke it I still said like Yoke is gonna get his I just thought that presented an opportunity for Murray And he's obviously taking advantage of that but like he already had like such a differential to make up that Like I think process-wise it was good, but in like reality. We know what's gonna happen Yeah, I mean 12 to 1 the odds that hitting are 8.5 percent tried to do math I might be off from that that might be 11. Anyway, it's like it's below 10 percent So that's accounted for in the odds. I think it's still got a chance. Maybe you never know Given the ways for forward, it's not totally out of the question But I think you might need a longer series to kind of keep things a bit more competitive there We're gonna talk about game four between nuggets and heat later on walls talk Gain three coming up tonight between the golden nights in the Panthers in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast because tomorrow Couple of shows coming your way two shows for Friday One of the Belmont steaks talking to Christina black or a fandal TV once again had her on for the prequeness And she called National Treasure to win so I'm gonna talk to her once again about the About the Belmont and then also tomorrow Rob Friedman pitching ninja back in the show talk some strikeout props Fandals putting up these markets where you can bet it who will lead the night in strikeouts We'll talk to Rob about his favorite bets for that fun market for me with my NASCAR golf brain I love that market. So we'll talk Rob about that tomorrow get that by subscribing To covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and also check us out over on the fandal YouTube page Let's talk now about game number three some between the golden nights and the Panthers coming up tonight and as of right now over at Fandals sportsbook Panthers are the favorites by a tiny bit the money line is minus 118 The night's money line is minus 102 total this game It's five and a half with minus 140 on the over as of right now in this series is skewed heavily towards Vegas and towards it being a high-scoring Series thus far. So are you looking to bet against those trends as the series now moves to Florida? Or are you thinking more of the same? I'm expecting much of the same at this point It's tough for me to bet either of those just based on the prior bets that I have which would be Going against them. So, you know to recap when I was here last week before the series started I talked about under 33 and a half total goals for the series and That you know, that's a bet that I have and there's been 16 goals through two games. So At this point, I would want a Vegas golden night sweep Because that would ensure that and it also I think plays into the Jonathan Marsha show bet that I have for Leading the series in total goals at plus 750 So if I were to bet on the over which is the way things have been skewing That's obviously fully against what I am wanting from the total goals And then if I bet on the Panthers that would in theory extend the series and that's also against total goals so I Have to not make a pick on that. I think it leads me to player props But I will say from a process standpoint a lot of it would lead me to the Panthers now Just to dig into some like really nitty-gritty details Through two games the Panthers have scored Three goals in 5v5 situations despite having 4.6 expected goals scored Through two games the Vegas Golden Knights have scored eight goals in 5v5 situations despite having 3.9 Expectals that's just in 5v5 now if we look at the series overall Panthers have scored four goals on seven point zero two expected goals and the Golden Knights have scored twelve goals on Seven point one eight expected goal all situations the series is seven point one eight to seven point zero two and expected goals That's literally a coin flip despite the fact that it looks like Vegas is dominating So from a process standpoint and not to mention the fact that the Panthers are controlling the coursey four percentage in both all Situations and 5v5 situations so from a process standpoint Everything would lead me to saying the Panthers aren't scoring off They're vastly underperforming the Vegas Golden Knights are vastly overperforming and they shouldn't be scoring this much They shouldn't be you know scoring at such a low rate all these sorts of things So it would lead me to the Panthers if I were to make a recommendation Very long explanation if I had to make a bet for the money line But it sounds like you're not swayed enough to actually pull the trigger there. Is that correct? Yes, part of that is we're actually dealing with us. It's a two-game sample size it like the variance is massive at this point and I've talked about it before where I think Bob Rofsky is a hundred percent better goalie compared to Aiden Hill But I've also talked about time and time again that the system that Bruce Cassidy has as the head coach for Vegas Protects Aiden Hill so much that he's able to stop a lot of these shots because they're not always high quality shots for their opponent They're they're pushed to the outside. So a Two-game sample size I would want to flip to the other side just because I'm saying, okay It's me lower scoring Panthers are gonna win but I can't necessarily take that with the other bets that I have locked in Right and like let's say apathetically you don't have the under 33 and a half goals Don't have the Marsha show to leave the series would that be enough for you to buy in the Panthers minus 118? Okay, one and I think though the money lines are where they should be Yeah, the series was tied 11 it might be a little bit more in favor of the Panthers minus 130 ish probably wouldn't be much more than that Yeah, but I think the money lines are fine. I would lean towards the Panthers, you know, regardless of anything else So you're on the Panthers at minus 118. Let's talk now about player props And you look at those over at vandal sportsbook. Tom. What stands out to be you as being a good value for tonight? Love Brandon Montour over two and a half shots at plus 134 He is the top defender for the Florida Panthers He leads the entire series in ice time of any player on any team. Oh, it's shifted Tom. Oh, what is it in a half now? Oh What are we doing here? Um So I three and a half he has eight shots through two games It's plus 134 over three and a half If we look at to record two plus shots because I can also go to the Market minus. Oh, no, sorry. That's two plus shots dummy Jim. Okay, Montour minus 210 to get three plus shots That's you Steve for you That's really borderline. I will if that was you know, if that was 180 minus 180 I would have a little more interest. Yeah, I guess I'll pivot to Alexander Barkov it over two and a half minus 130. I think that is a spot that'll be looking to go He's on their top forward line top center I've talked about before home team does have that second line change So it can put him in more favorable spots because they can you know, if the fourth line goes out there for Vegas They can match with the first line Despite the fact that Vegas is very deep down the center and they are great at face off Park hub is theoretically in a better spot So minus 130 for over two and a half shots for Sasha Barkov is a spot that I would go. Okay. Let's talk quickly about Montour because Hypothetically, there might silly books out there where it's still a two and a half What puts you on Montour over two and a half initially and where is like the cutoff point for you where it's no longer a value? So again, he leads a team in ice time of any player in the series. He's top defender on Florida he leads all players in the series in terms of course the 4 percentage which means when he is on the ice he is We're seeing Florida not necessarily 100% because of him But Florida dominates possession they're dominating the shot attempt So he is an offensive driven defensive player and you know add in the desperation factor where they have to get shots the net like it's his role to kind of generate and Start the offense when he's playing on the blue line DVD those sorts of things So when he's on the ice Florida generate shots period end of story So because his ice time is so high it generally puts him in a good spot to see a high volume of shots regardless of the quality Then we don't necessarily care about that. Right. So the cutoff would be if you can find two and a half's out there I would go like I said to to minus 175 minus 180 I think that does actually present value eight shots through two games is very solid, okay So if you can find minus 175 minus 180 on Montour over three two and a half shots That would be a spour Tom would go otherwise liking Sasha Barkoff over two and a half shots minus 130 with where things currently stand over at Let's talk now about the NBA and talk about game number four here between the nuggets and the heat of course the Nuggets taking a game number three last night and now holding a two-to-one lead in the series heading into game number three Spread he was two and a half in favor of the nuggets. It is now three and a half coming off what we saw last night with the decently dominant win for the nuggets the total down to two ten and a half So Tom, let's start things off here with the traditional markets spread more hate more heavily now in Denver's favor Any traditional market bet stand out to you as of right now for game four? as of right now the only spot that would look would be the under in terms of these markets and the defense that we saw from Denver is really their peak and like I said at the top like this that last night could have been there their best game of the entire playoffs where Everyone gets involved. They you know great involvement from yokich and Murray. They're great on defense I'm granted did Miami miss some shots here and there. Yeah, is there natural variants them missing? You know some layups. Yes, but granted Denver took advantage of that and they out rebounded them by 25 I think the margin was so Denver did everything right that they had to do So I would once again lean towards the under and maybe this is the spot where like Miami's juice has run out Everyone's talked about how they've been overperforming in terms of you know feel go percentage and three-point percentage and effective feel go percent Probably sorts of things like maybe the juice has run out at this point because they played so many games and is it again I've talked about like is it sustainable for that eight game stretch through a few series yet But maybe this is the breaking point for them So now they have a breaking point against what we know is a great defense It leaves it you know just leads to no score for anyone, right? I feel like I Never wanted doubt Jimmy Butler I feel like the narrative will crop up after last night that even though he did well that oh Maybe he's tired. Maybe the ankle thing from the Nick series could be him or could be you know biting him I personally have seen enough for Jimmy butler. I don't want to buy into that. So What are your thoughts on him specifically? Are you? Worried at all or are we still you know treating him as if it's playoff to me butler who we saw the previous couple series I think you can always treat it as you know It is playoff Jimmy and I think the best way to take advantage of that is probably the PRA bet Where you he's gonna be involved Will we see a massive amount of scoring from him? Maybe not but he can do so much when it comes to rebounding and assist that you can kind of be in on that That's I guess a way to have exposure to the heat in some capacity if you don't want to take your money line And again, I think it does have some correlation with the under And they got out rebounded like I said by 25 So if they have this team effort that everyone needs to rebound then right Jimmy will be in there doing more and more Okay, so we're liking the under a two ten and a half that is currently Minus one way to fend will sportsbook. What about player props? Tom? What stands out to you there? So there are two that I've interest in and they obviously are directly tied to the heat Excuse me, it's not to the heat to the nuggets winning and it's actually under player performance doubles. Okay, but should be on that popular page You know scroll a little bit down Yolkic double-double and nuggets win is minus 132 Yolkic triple double and nuggets win is plus 170 I think those are really good when we look at these numbers compared to the nuggets money line Yeah, and you'd have to say and and I think the purest example of this is What we saw from game two and then I talked about this on Monday morning was on sports grid with Ben Stevens Yolkic in game two only had four assists Despite him dropping 40 points He had four assists and they lost that game and what I said was you know Yolkic is at his best when he's distributing the ball there for the nuggets as a team right there best because everyone's getting involved and Doesn't matter that he had 40 points last night He had a triple double and they win the game because everyone's getting you know the the offense more spread out So I think this correlates in a nice way with Yolkic's performing Well, which we know he's gonna do Nuggets winning which we know they're clearly capable of and the value and the odds are so much better on these performance bonuses compared to the money line And I think that the way that the double double one is being treated as as if the double double is a certainty effectively That's minus 132 money line minus 152 It's not a lot of edge there So it sounds like based in the way you're talking is if you prefer the triple double one So yo could you get a triple double nuggets to win a plus 170 is that correct? Right? I love that one And you know, he doesn't have to have again He doesn't have that 40 points He doesn't have to have 21 rebounds like he did last night It can be his normal triple double which I think falls in line with the potential game script where he's still gonna get his shots up He's gonna have plenty of rebounds and they have to make it a point where Everyone gets involved with him passing the ball because having four assists is clearly not the path to them winning which we saw In game two, it's everyone getting involved knocking down some shots So I think we we tie this all together and plus 170 I don't want to say essentially for Denver to win but pretty close is something that I love Alrighty, so we're checking out Nikola Yocic to have a triple double and the nuggets to win a plus 170 Potentially on the under as well at 210 Two ten and a half at minus 108 on the under over at Vandals sports book That is Tom Vecchio make sure you check him out on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom find his work over at number fire as well Tom it has been a delight as always enjoy game three tonight between the Golden Knights and the Panthers Good luck sweating the bets that you've got out there and good luck with the NBA finals on Friday as well We'll talk to you soon. Thanks for having me. Alrighty again Check out Tom on Twitter at DFS underscore Tommy could find his work over at number fire as well We'll dive into some NASCAR for this weekend in Sonoma in just one second But first we're about to crown the NBA champion and Fandal wants you to be a part of the excitement because right now New customers can get a no sweat first bet up to $2,500 that is $2,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet doesn't win There's no better place to bet all the finals action than America's number one sports book Fandal official sports betting partner of the NBA Must be 21 plus and president select states first online real money wager only $10 deposit required refund issued is non-letrable bonus bets that expire in 14 days Restrictions apply seafold terms at fandal.com slash sports book Fandal is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit fandal.com slash RG in Arizona Call 1 800 next step or tax next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 7 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in indiana 1809 with its in Wyoming in Kansas 1 800 5 2 2 4700 we're in Kansas KS gambling health comm Louisiana is 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in Massachusetts gambling helpline MA org We're calling 100 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in Maryland MD gambling health org in New York 1 8 7 7 8 open wire text open live and in West Virginia go to 1 800 gambler net Now let's talk a year about some NASCAR because NASCAR heading out to Sonoma for this weekend It is their second road course race of this year the first one of the circuit of the Americas that one Tyler Reddick won and was pretty dominant but circuit of the Americas and Kota do some key differences and Reddick is a favorite right now at plus 450 over at fandals sportsbook And I do have his winouts pretty high I've got Kyle Larson chased Ellie a bit above him though because of the struggles Toyota has had On road courses and reddick isn't a Toyota. So I'm okay being higher on them The problem is I can't quite get to Larson at plus 470 or Elliott at plus 500 If Elliott were six to one, I probably would bite but Haven't seen that as of yet If we look at just the odds over at fandals sportsbook There are a couple outrides that do stand out to me as of right now before practice and qualifying The first one being Daniel Suarez at 16 to 1 I've got Suarez at 6.9 percent to win this race versus the implied odds at 5.9 percent And the reason Suarez is high should be pretty obvious and that he won this race last year His lone win in the NASCAR Cup series so far, but he won in pretty dominant fashion and Honestly, that wasn't a surprise because at Kota last year. He won the first stage Ran really well in that opening stage Then got caught up in a spin never really rebounded from that But you kind of saw the strength in that race for Suarez this year at Kota He ran pretty well also seventh place average running position for Suarez at Kota He's coming off a solid run at gateway last week And I actually do have that inside my model because at gateway very flat track with a lot of shifting and that can correlate to Sonoma despite the fact there It's a different rules package they used last week versus the one they'll use this week So I get access to last year's winner of this race He's in a Chevy, which is always I think a good thing for this week. He's 16 to 1 to win I've got value there. I think he'll probably shorten post practice and qualifying So I want to take Suarez right now 16 to 1 to win at Sonoma as the first outright of this week The second outright is also on a guy where I want to take a top 10 bet on him So this will be a scaling bet in the bet where I put some on The outright but then more on the top 10 bet in order to ensure a profit Should this driver finish top 10, which I think the odds are pretty good of doing that is Michael McDowell He is 40 to 1 to win and plus 155 for a top 10 of and will sportsbook And I am a lot higher on McDowell than the market right now potentially In a way where I am too high, but I also think that 40 to 1 is kind of absurd He has not shown a lot of upside throughout his career outside of a win at Daytona, but He did finish third here last year ran really well He had a top 10 average running position in all but one road course race last year The one exception for him last year across all the road courses was at circuit of the americas So the fact that he didn't light it up at coda this year to me is not a huge concern And he wasn't awful in that race wasn't contention for a top 10 pretty late. So not a big red flag to me that he didn't run great there The implied odds for McDowell to win are 2.4 percent at 41 So even if I'm too high on him, I think the market is too low So I'll take the outright as of the top 10 at plus 155 McDowell's implied odds are under 40 percent And I find that pretty enticing because my model has him at 47 to finish inside the top 10 He has finished top 10 in four out of seven road course races in the next gen car Which is a 57 percent rate small sample as always, but again the implied odds 39 percent that gap is Pretty pretty big McDowell is a great road racer And he showed that back in the day before the next gen car But now at the next gen car The equipment gap between hendrick motorsports and front row front row, which is where McDowell races is not as large So he's been better able to show his talent on these road courses recently So again, what I would do here is scale this bet where If McDowell finishes top 10 you profit, but then you have some upside Via the outright as well from to win at 40 to 1 so outright this week I like suarez 16 to 1 McDowell 40 to 1 couple guys who finished in the podium here last year To very good road racers who have had good enough form this year and also did run pretty well in gateway last week I think that makes a lot of sense The other top 10s where i'm showing value are on austin dillon at plus 650 and zane smith at 8 to 1 Let's start here with austin dillon. He is uh the implied odds of plus 650 are 13.3 Whereas i have dillon at 20.3 And dillon had this long stretch to open his career where he had zero top 10s and road courses for I think it was like 19 consecutive races But in the next gen era, which is a seven start sample He already has two top 10s on road courses and He finished 11th here last year So not a top 10 but just outside it and showing that he sticks around doesn't make a lot of mistakes He's worked a lot on his road racing the past couple years and it's definitely paid dividends. So 20.3 for me 13.3 implied I think dillon is a good bet at plus 650 to finish inside the top 10 I've also got value on zane smith at 8 to 1 not as much value And I also would shop around because I got zane smith 12 to 1 yesterday elsewhere So shop around see what number you can get on zane smith 8 to 1 is long enough for me to bite Much prefer it longer if you can get there because the edge is smaller here I've got zane smith 14.3 to finish top 10 implied odds 8 to 1 or 11.1 percent So as always shop around see what you can get But there is a big enough gap where I would take it if 8 to 1 is the best number you can get The reason I'm high on zane smith is that he is mcdowell's teammate this weekend running in that front row car Todd gillen going over to the rick where racing car for this week once again And we've seen mcdowell demonstrate this car can push for wins not just top 10s the wins in this car So that's a good thing But also it's not just mcdowell. Todd gillen has a couple top 10s on road courses Since he started the cup series as well So we've seen this team push for top 10s with two separate drivers And they seem to view zane smith better than they view Todd gillen. So the fact that gillen has done that I think is pretty encouraging Smith in the truck series says we're on four row course races since the beginning of last year His finishes. They are first second second and first obviously Level of competition is much different down there than it is Up here in the in the cup series, but you go back to circuit of the americas this year He was racing against ross chastain cow bush pretty tough field and zane smith ran well in that one So again zane smith I'm at 14.3 top 10 implied odds for 11.1 percent. I think there is a decent shot that he reopens longer than eight to one depending on how things how qualifying goes, but I kind of wanted to take it now again I have a 12 to 1 but 8 to 1 I think I would want to lock that into so the bets I like this week for Sonoma are Daniel Suarez to win 16 to 1 Michael mcdowell to win 40 to 1 mcdowell top 10 at plus 155 Austin dillan top 10 at plus 650 and zane smith top 10 at 8 to 1 Row courses have been up and down for sure, but I feel pretty good about this And I think the market is a bit off on all those guys So very okay locking those bets in before practicing qualifying coming up on saturday That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread as mentioned though Double show tomorrow talking some strikeout props with pitching ninja and then talking the belmont steaks with christina blacker Get all those by subscribing to the number the covering the spread podcast feed wherever You get your podcast if you like what you hear leave us a five star rating on apple or on spotify Or give us a thumbs up over on the fandal youtube page Big thank you once again to tom vecchio check him out on twitter at dfs underscore tom find his work over at numberfire.com If you got any questions for me, I'm on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a and and e s want to thank you all for tuning in for today Good luck to you with your bets for game three between vegas and florida We'll talk to you once again tomorrow, which should be a fun day here on the show This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network