 The study examined the relative contributions of initial hydrologic conditions and climate forecast skill to seasonal hydrologic forecast skill. The results showed that the initial hydrologic conditions had the greatest impact on forecast skill at lead 1, first month of the forecast period, while climate forecast skill started to take over after this point. This suggests that improving climate forecast skill alone would be beneficial in most areas of the country, but improvements in initial hydrologic conditions could provide additional benefits in certain regions. Additionally, the study found that initial hydrologic conditions were more influential in soil moisture forecasts compared to cumulative runoff forecasts. This article was authored by S. Shukla and D. P. Leidenmayer.