 It is everyone's favorite time of the year. We are talking weather in NFL DFS everyone loves weather There's never been any pushback about weather on Twitter. No one gets angry irrationally about weather What could be better to bring us all together to complain about one thing and build hopefully some profitable DFS slimes We're gonna break down the impact of that weather which gains are impacted which players We're still using despite some bad weather and breaking down the week 16 NFL DFS main slate This is the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Numberfire that's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim saw this I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm Joined here as always by Brandon. Good. Dula. He is the senior managing editor of number fire calm Brandon you appear as though you have a question your hand was raised brain. I'm calling on you. Hello And I was pointing a number fire on my backdrop. Oh, I actually couldn't see that it's a little blown up Change your lighting get get your life together. Yeah, get your stuff in order Well, you know, it is what it is How are you? Oh, yeah, just just hanging out. What's up? I Made a concerted effort not to interrupt you during your intro this week because I've to edit the podcast That's a record and like it always messes with like the alignment of like the audio files if I interrupt you And I I do that a lot. I'm aware of this. I don't care that much usually but it makes editing harder We're for that. I wouldn't care. I'd interrupt you really nilly, but because of the editing I have to care a bit So did you want me to like have a filibuster here? No that you could Did I do my job? No, well, yes, I don't know actually did you ever answer how you are? I actually don't know I probably not but Oh, you know, I mean, it's it's a Wednesday and we're doing the NFL show Which means Doing all the prep with with one fewer day Which is never Ideal that being said at least these games are the main slate on Saturday So it's correct kind of the same but not really and we got like some practice notes, but doesn't really feel quite like a normal week, but You know and a lot of what we're gonna talk about is going to change Which is always the case whenever we talk on Thursday for Sunday If we're gonna talk Wednesday for Sunday, that was gonna change but like even with the main slate on Saturday We're gonna get weather shifts. We're gonna get some injury news one way or the other and even before Like knowing that for certain there's gonna be a lot of ways that this slate can go a lot of different ways You can build your lineups. You might have a very low salary quarterback. You could play You might have the highest salary quarterback in play a lot of different options And I don't know if there's a consensus that being said I Think we can all agree That we love Christian McCaffrey as always and the problem is we can also love Derek Henry Maybe to the point where we want to jam in both Question mark who can say we're gonna talk about that We'll talk about the weather and more to get you ready for this main slate and just bit the first a reminder to make Sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast scene wherever you get your podcast especially this time of year when the podcast schedule is All up in the air do the holidays no more recap podcasts for the rest of the year But still have the daily ISO via Tom Vecchio here on the number fire DFS feed We'll have our preview shows every week as well So get those by subscribing to the number fire daily fantasy podcast scene wherever you get your podcast And if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well We of course are alive on the fandal YouTube page as well looking to get more out of the NFL this season Well now is the perfect time to download fandal America's number one sportsbook because new customers get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000 that's free bets back if your first bet does not win just download the fandal sportsbook app It is safe secure and super easy to use then you can bet on everything from the money line to touchdown scores to over under yards Plus fandal even lets you combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with a same-game parlay So don't miss a chance to get your no sweat first bet up to $1,000 and free bets when you join fandal Make every moment more with fandal an official sports betting partner of the NFL must be 21 plus in president select states first online A real money wager only refund issued is non withdrawal of free bets that expire in 14 days Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook dot fandal calm gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit fandal calm Rg in Arizona 1 800 next step or text next f5 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Indiana 109 with it in Wyoming in Kansas 1 800 5 2 2 4700 or in Kansas gas gambling health calm in Louisiana 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in Maryland MD gambling health Network in New York 1 8 7 7 8 hope and wire text open Y or in West Virginia. You can go to 1 800 gambler net Let's dig into the slate overview here for week number 16 and Brandon I think the key thing here is weather weather weather weather weather weather weather weather weather weather What is the slate overview for you in week 16? I love that Christmas song dashing through the win 27 miles per hour Board again in the first quarter Yeah, I don't know about that one. I think we'll get the interns on a new Christmas Carol for the heat check. Yeah So if you're working over working some overtime, yes, let's write some some new Christmas tunes, but yeah, I think look it's Finding some balance, I guess probably because like the slates on No unbalanced stars and scrubs. Oh, no, no, no, I meant like life balance. Oh, yeah, sure and I know like not, you know, it's Holiday for a lot of people not everyone necessarily but it's a big Big day a lot of overlap, which is I'm sure conflicting for a lot of people with like a lot of family plans But when you work in the industry, it's also weird because you can't just check out from all the games But point being I find some find some I might catch up. I'll catch up before. Yeah, no No, I'm gonna check out you got it, but there's still that catch-up period. Yeah Yeah, and overlaps with like but that's not it. That's not like a big complaint All I was trying to say is you know, it's cool Find some find some balance and find a way to keep on top of the news and injuries and weather While not just sitting in front of a computer all week, but in terms of the actual slate itself I Don't think Jimmy Jim kind of screw screw this up for me, which is pretty typical But I was gonna say I don't think we want the balance this week for our lineups because we have We have a lot of there's the dropping thing again as I interrupt you to say this that I'm interrupting Yes, we got a lot of superstars in play this week and I don't think of Not avoiding them, but I don't think that building around like the mid tier is is gonna be enough this week Yeah, I very much agree. I think the mid-range at running back Like if you count seven thousand to be like the mid-range is okay But you're doing that in order to get access to the studs like Probably gonna want Christian McCaffrey or Derek Henry or shake while in Barkley like one of those studs in each lineup I Like Justin Jefferson. I think that's too far dig still kind of interesting despite the weather in that game We'll talk about the weather there in a bit So I want to get to those studs and I agree that the gap between the upper tier in the mid-range is Bigger this week than usual. Would you agree with that phrasing of it? Yeah, it's um, I mean if anyone listens to our golf show we get certain fields where You know the way that the salaries work in in PGA golf like DFS and NFL kind of similar where like guys there's only so high that someone can be salaried and You know, there are some weeks where we have three Options who are tiers and tiers above the rest. That's a little bit more Spread out with the NFL, but like this week McCaffrey Barkley Henry just in their own own tier for this week And we got to make sure that we prioritize them for going all three of them in line-ups It can work But these guys are in really good situations They definitely are we'll talk about how to get there because I think there are good values that we can have We'll talk about how to get there and much more in a bit Usually we do the weather towards the end but I think it's important to put it at the beginning for this week to highlight the games that are impacted by weather for this week and How much it may matter the biggest one is in Cleveland 27 mile-per-hour winds for the Browns and the Saints total for that game Is 31 and a half. I believe it's still down there 32 and a half. Hey, it's moving on up 32 and a half for the Browns and the Saints. I did take the over in this game So we'll see I built out a new model. What better time to build out a new model than before there is drastic drastic weather, but 27 mile-per-hour winds in Cleveland for the Browns and the Saints 19 miles per hour in Chicago for the Bears and Bills apparently the wind chill there will be like negative 10 I'll be outside of Chicago for this game. Awesome. Love to see it. Welcome back to the Midwest for that 14 mile-per-hour winds in Baltimore for the Ravens and Falcons still to be determined if Lamar Jackson can play in that game 13 mile-per-hour winds in Foxboro for the Patriots and the Bengals 11 miles per hour in Carolina for the Panthers and Lions Come on down, baby. Bring that down a couple more miles per hour Let us rip out some shark deep pros 10 miles per hour in Kansas City for the Chiefs and the Seahawks and then 10 in Tennessee for the Titans and Texans for Malik Willis's 15 pass attempts. They may be impacted by the wind in this game I think that it's kind of worth reiterating our overall thoughts on weather where we downgrade teams based on winds you've done research that shows that Players playing in heavier winds will fall short of their projections by about seven to ten percent Seven to ten percent. So you downgrade players by that much The problem is you're downgrading a lot of players this week, which means we may still want to be in there So you downgrade them, but don't cross them off. I think is the way I'd phrase that Brandon What else do you want to note on weather for this week? Yeah, I think you downgrade Don't cross them off. You got to you got to look at the slate within the context of You know within the alternatives I think that makes like the Saints and Browns with the low toe the super severe wind Something that I I don't really want to get exposure to I know You think it'll score more points But just because it scores more than 32 and a half does not mean it scores 55 points There's a difference between going over and being a good DFS game. So Just want to make that a note. But my question to you to kind of put a bow on this You know for for the Christmas week At what point should we start worrying about wind is 10 not really anything we worry about What's the difference between like 10 and 19 miles per hour in terms of wind? Yeah, so 10 is where I start to get my attention I would say and 15 is where I start to like Downgrade quite a bit. So 19 is high That on a lot of slates that'd be like not a not a cross-off because again, we will cross out anything off like it'd be like, okay significant downgrade there and 27 is wild Like that's a lot. So It's like it's like a sliding scale obviously as it should be because you know, it's incremental But 10 is where I it gets my attention 15 downgrade 20 Significant downgrade 27 significant significant downgrade, but again, like you know Everything has a everything has a price and everything in DFS We're talking about price. Yeah, everyone's got their price But also everyone has their tip-and-point terms of roster rates so, you know, if people just avoid this bills bearers game because of the freezing cold temperatures I think there could be a shot there to pivot to be different any different thoughts for you there No, I think we're on the same page Partially because we learn from each other's research with I mean, I said to do research within that so yep, that's exactly it Okay, let's have any injuries here for this slate Unfortunately a lot of quarterback begin in the jail and hurts like they didn't miss this week due to a sprain shoulder It would leave the team starting Gardner Minshew in his place. They also did activate Dallas Goddard from IR The total for that game is still relatively high that game is indoors The spread is tightening as week goes along so we'll talk about the game in the bookmaker section Lamar Jackson did not practice Tuesday due to his knee injury He was expected back this week, but that seems very much in doubt now also Devon DuVernay got hurt in practice He was placed on IR JK Dobbins this practice Tuesday. That is apparently due to rest So even we get Lamar back this week brand I think the Miss Practice Tuesday is a big red flag because it means he's not fully healthy yet. So Where are you on him in this offense even if Lamar does wind up playing? Yeah, I don't think I'd get so Lamar necessarily because even though we have a lot of a lot of down games We have enough good quarterbacks to want to prioritize Lamar Like I don't know what what the situation truly is with him But it's not really I mean I know that he's had the 240 point games But that feels like years ago at this point but at the beginning of the season back when he had more more assets to throw to It's a really bleak situation That being said like I understand the Highlight Justin Fields this week despite wind and not having a lot to throw to but it's more to do with The expected health of Lamar himself. Yeah, I think that's where I'm at, too Like I thought if leave Lamar were practicing Tuesday's dad of interest in him Interest in Mark Andrews and stuff like that, but I think that we should downgrade them with this mispractice Ryan Tannehill mispractice Tuesday with the ankle injury suffered against the Chargers seems like we're gonna get Malik Willis in this game That spread is down to four and a half We'll talk about the Tennessee offense under Malik Willis in the trend section Nick Chubb miss practice Due to a foot injury on Tuesday as we discussed Monday played a season high snaps this past week So could be just maintenance after that. He also spoke to the media before practice. So I think he'll be fine What's you do on this backfield with and without Nick Chubb? Probably I'm not gonna get to Nick Chubb This week. It's it's a terrible game environment. I understand there should be a lot of rushing attempts But a lot of rushing attempts Can just believe the clock this team can be efficient on the ground Especially with Nick Chubb just being the rushing yards over expectation king But this is just not the type of game that you have to target this week if you have them on a season long team And you're like you're you know, you're playing Nick Chubb but whenever you can get to like say Juan Barkley or You know a Tony Pollard or Joe Mixon and like better situations. I Don't really think that I can get to Nick Chubb this week in DFS Yeah, I think that it's the same the same stuff you mentioned with the like the other alternatives like I love Pollard this week I think he's really fun You got Saquon Barkley not that much higher than him and then Miles Sanders Kenneth Walker Maybe JK Dobbins below him I think that that's enough where we can gloss over Chubb and if Chubb doesn't play They seem to really sourdough cream cream hunts. His workload has decreased quite a bit Now they do need to win this game because they still have a shot at the playoffs and outside shot But a shot nonetheless So they should push but I don't know if they'll push with by making cream hunt like this workhorse kind of guy I think that they'll get Deirdre Johnson in there a bit. So I Don't know if there were no chubb. Maybe I'd I just think he'll play so I don't want to consider it too much Honestly, we should be fine there, but they seem to sourd on a cream hunt quite a bit. Yeah, and If there's no next job, you're basically playing a guy whose team does not want to play him in a game 32 and a half point total where there might not be any offensive efficiency because there's no way to throw the ball down the field So exactly speaking of throwing the ball down the field Chris Olave. This practice for the hamstring injury on Tuesday New injury for Olave. Whether here is hideous, but if Olave can't go Does anybody benefit for you? Not not so much I was gonna make a joke that like I guess David Johnson would get more receiving work because it's not gonna go Camara apparently And I know that Camara had the two targets last week, but just one more route than David Johnson, which is weird and not fun. I Think that the main like the most fun play on this team could be Jason Hill then yeah You know, they don't have as many guys to throw to the it's gonna be kind of an ugly game. He could get a Lot of carries started my quarterback. I don't know why they don't honestly Like for this week specifically in 27 mile per hour wins. They should against the the Browns rush defense Yeah, like he should walk away from this game with 14 carries the Browns have like 16 linebackers on IR That is an exaggeration, but not by that much There in a bad spot I would use Jason Hill quarterback this week I think the one downside of Hill for DFS this week is So much of his appeal comes from touchdowns, you know Like and there are gonna be a lot of touchdowns in this game most likely so Despite that I can't write him off which I think says a lot about how I think he'll be using this game But that does lower my enthusiasm about getting there at $6,500 Yeah, there's make no mistake. There's a lot of downside to Jason Hill. Yeah Especially because this is one of the spots where you have to project that the team uses him in a way that makes sense to us Which is has not been the case. So yeah We'll see about that Tyler lock it likely to miss this week with a finger injury Kenneth Walker also mispracticed Tuesday with an ankle injury As did Noah Phant with a knee injury Both Walker and Phant were on the play were on the field for the final play for the Seahawks on Thursday Obviously fans scored so no shocker. He was on the field Walker is out there too. So Probably just maintenance, but we'll talk about them in the bookmaker section Hayden Hurst got in a limited session on Tuesday is first since his calf injury You'll talk about the Bengals in the trend section Jacobi Myers Damian Harris and or Andre Stevenson all limited in practice on Tuesday Myers played last week. So The fact that he is doesn't with a concussion is concerning and odd. I hope he's okay Harris is still trying to return while Stevenson played through his injury last week Any paths for you against the Bengals here with 13 mile power wins My mom make more sense to talk about them in the content the larger context The other side of that game because you could see it probably I don't want to play the Bengals against the Patriots Therefore, I'm not gonna stack that game, but I think if I can talk you into some Bengals Maybe we can take a deeper look at the Patriots. Yeah, let's do that then Okay, the Bears did designate Clio Herbert to return from IR He likely will be activated before this week's game Does that push David Montgomery had a play for you and any interest in Herbert down at $5,500? I think it does Bump Montgomery out of the conversation for me and no, I don't think that Herbert would get enough work at 55 We're gonna want some You know, I would I kind of hate saying like punt plays or scrubs or anything because in any sport But like we're gonna need the punt plays but Herbert's not gonna be one of them Yeah, I think he's better than the guys below 6,000 but I don't want to use the guys below 6,000 He's better than that tier like under salary I would say but I'm not gonna use him regardless Caleb Huntley will miss the rest of the season due to an ankle injury the Falcons face the Ravens this week is the matchup They're tough enough for you to still cross off Tyler LG or at Cordero Patterson I don't think I can trust this offense enough to play Too bad even like a two-back committee. So I'm probably not there I guess there are paths that it could actually burn me But I think that they're pretty narrow and not gonna happen. I agree with that So let's dig into the bookmaker info for this week. Oops. That is out of date I was gonna put up the Seahawks and the cheese spread here, but that's not 10 I did lengthen to 10 now the cheese favored over the Seahawks I looked the highest total on the board at 48 and a half title lock and not gonna play that could downgrade the Seahawks offense That's likely why this spread is 10, but it also does give volume to other guys the cheese likely to have More full roll for Cadarius Tony this week. He ran. I think just three routes this past week Nicole Harbin is back as well. Most likely So what's your view here of Seahawks and cheese in the context of this entire slate? Well that Tell me more Right. I mean, do I have to like we got my homes? I think juju Smith Schuster is gonna go a bit overlooked if We get that the receiver is healthy. I think people worry about that jerk McKinnon's receiving workload I think it's drawing away from juju's Good workload as well as he works his way Back to full then Kelsey's salary is too high so I think people will just like kind of look away from this game a little bit more than they should or At least specifically the Chief's offense because it's not a flawless offense for DFS because you have to kind of guess right but If I can play Patrick my home is if I can find ways to get there. I want to get there I love juju. I would consider Isaiah Pacheco as a salary saver Mm-hmm Kenneth Walker is someone that we wrote down. We were pretty astonished at what a salary was on Monday's recap show Love that One of those situations like yeah, you pointed out this is gonna be a less efficient offense But they still have DK Metcalf Like he's a game changer. So it's like I'm not gonna say it's exactly like the Bengals offense but like take Jamar Chase or T Higgins off the field that you saw the other one there. So I think this is a really fun game I think there are different ways to stack it and we have some value for the Seahawks as well. Yeah, I think that like We can downgrade Gino with no lock it like Gino might be in play if lock it were healthy in this game I think that taking lock it away gets me away from Gino in DFS But I still like DK a lot and I think that like across my lineups this week The average number of Seahawks per lineup that I have will probably be like 1.6 Cuz like I'm gonna have a lot of teams that have both Walker and fan a lot of teams with both Walker and good one a lot of teams with both Walker and Metcalf like Walker's gonna be on like 80% so that's point eight Seahawks per line up there That's true And so then I'm not gonna gloss over this other guys there cuz like who cares, you know running back in tight end Don't overlap that much. It's fine. So especially on a slate where a lot of games are just like, you know Really really unappealing so average of like 1.6 Seahawks per line up Which can be scary given that they are losing a legit piece in their offense, but I think all those guys are Super super in play as far as Judas miss Schuster goes. I think he is the best stacking partner with my homes at 73 I think that's very affordable. I was I think you were too a bit concerned about He looked like he got banged up in that Houston game like and that's scary because like he had that concussion that was just pretty bad So I kind of watch him closer than I do a lot of guys kind of hoping he's okay But he's not an injured port on Tuesday. So he should be good to go. So I do like juju at 73 even when we had Kaderious Tony and equal Harbin up. I think juju's target share was still 12 out of like 68 whatever that is I don't think all 68 is 18 percent. It's not great, but like still in that offense pretty good So I do like Smith Schuster. You mentioned as a Pacheco as a salary saver. I agree 67 against a rush defense that has been getting torched recently this the cheese have been willing to go with heavy personnel that might not be as true this week with horror Hardman and Tony both healthy also Noah Gray and Jody Fordson We're both on the injured port on Tuesday that might impact their personnel packages, but I still think Pacheco is Viable at 67. He is not a core play. I would say he's like a 20% or kind of guy if I want to bring back if I want to cut back on some of my Walker cut back on some of my Miles Sanders, whatever it may be for the lower salary backs So what would differentiation piece than a a core play for me, but everyone here is kind of like a green light Yeah, I think Pacheco is like the perfect example of someone that I will Have a higher exposure to Then I actually like his role because I'm gonna be so much higher on this game Then the other games like the odds that this game scores like, you know, 55 60 total points Substantially higher than most other games like you have to and everyone knows this But it can be a little bit easier to overlook as we try to differentiate away from like the quote-unquote chalk The odds that some of these games are true like shootouts back and forth a lot of our Would be shocked if they turn into that. So like yeah, this game I would not even without Tyler Lockett. So yeah, you know the odds that we see like a Sunday Miller Saturday million winning lineup with like, you know five guys from this game pretty reasonable Yeah, I built out a total model and this mod this this game in my model has the highest total in this life by almost six points That's even with a downgrade for Lockett, so it's pretty enthusiastic and that's with the win being factored in to Like other and like other than Metcalfe Who sellers honestly reasonable like and Kelsey? Yeah, well, I was just thinking specifically with Seattle, but yeah, yeah overall like It's a pretty affordable game to stack up It is definitely and like I think it's pretty fun now William on YouTube did ask question about We think about Kaderis Tony's usage or sorry, Mikal Harman's usage going back to what it was He says I think there's reason to believe that Harman goes back to his typical usage I think that the supporting evidence for that is that Harman practiced last week, too So this is not his first week back He practiced last week did not get activated but did practice and I always like that for a player like Dallas Goddard this week. I think that helps with him the fact that he practiced last week didn't get activated and now Gets a second full week of practice. So I think that helps with Harman the one downside with him is that His role was kind of flimsy to begin with like before his injury and now they've added Kaderis Tony So I think the concern with Harman is less about his injury and more about the fact that there's more Competition now than there was specifically via Tony Juju's healthy stuff like that also Yeah, I think that's actually just my primary thing. Where are you on Hardman at $5,500? I wouldn't rule him out because of the salary and because of the game sure But if this were a the type of slate where we had more options In terms of games like so this one didn't stand out as much Yeah, I don't think I'd get there but yeah an 11% target share in the games that he played in You know can get downfield work get red zone work You know wouldn't be dishonest to see a carry from him But yeah, I think he's the perfect like if you're stacking up this game And you're just gonna be heavier on this game than anything else Sure get some sprinkles of Harman other than that I'm not gonna chase it especially in like a one-off situation so one mentioned this might have a William action YouTube on Monday that maybe Harman impacts Jared McKinnon I think that's actually maybe the bigger thing is that yeah having Harman back might impact McKinnon a little bit as far as actually now When I jack on YouTube mentioned that potentially detracting from McKinnon Harman getting a lot of work is at the red zone. We agree so good timing on that Jack over on YouTube I think that it does downgrade McKinnon a bit I think that the check goes more independent of that because he gets more work on the ground, but It's a great game. I think this is the the best game on the slate by a wide margin And I want to have exposure this game in Almost every lineup but likely everyone but would you still would you stack my homes with Jerrick? still I Probably wasn't going to anyway cuz I'm just right. I don't know if I'll get to Jerrick I guess that could be very stupid, but and would you stack my homes with? is a Pacheco So I'm Broadly very okay with running back and quarterback stacks because a you get double dip on targets But B it sucks up like all the yardage and touchdowns on a team. That's not the case of them So broadly I'm receptive to that I think I might not do it in that specific scenario Okay, what about you? I think it'd be kind of open to it assuming that McKinnon doesn't get a whole lot of rushing Work necessarily If he's not on the field as much to overcome the receiving dearth true But yeah, I mean, but I mean I like this game so much more than other ones that I'll Probably have suboptimal process stacks to get exposure because again Yeah, that was this game is is great is substantially higher than almost every other game on the slate Yeah, you might not need perfect process to have good plays for this week Okay, let's go to Minneapolis know when their lesson thing goes horribly which has never happened in Minneapolis in December They'd never had a roof collapse at their at their stadium in December Actually, I think it's the anniversary of the metrodome roof collapse I was in Minneapolis that day on a bus back from college and I broke down my bus broke down too good stuff Anyway, there is no wind in Minneapolis for the Vikings and Giants total is 47 and a half the Vikings Are favored by three and a half we gushed over to Iquan Barclay on Monday. How else are you getting exposure to this game? If I'm stacking this one up, I'm more receptive to Dalvin cook in terms of Like a running back running back stack that I don't think will be super popular just because if I'm if I'm on this game I'm assuming that this is the game like, you know in in my specific line It's not to say like I got to decide between this one and the chiefs game Adjusting Jefferson sake on Barclay stack seems Super fun not the easiest to get to but it is very doable because my question to you is For stacked we always have to ask the question. Don't do it. Is it a two quarterback game? Is it is it one? Is it half? This is zero for you I'd consider dimes, but I Think this is the one really don't I think this is the one quarterback game with the caveat that it's a half for both Daniel Jones and Kirk Hudson. Oh, okay. I actually like that. Um, I accept that answer Wow, I was expecting to fight you but that was actually pretty good. So could I see you? Yes, I think that's fair. I think that Jones is in play because of the rushing I wish his weapons were healthier because he could actually be like a legit fantasy option If if they were but they're not that's just kind of reality You mentioned the sake one Barclay Justin Jefferson stack That's very doable this week if you assume. This is the game that blows up like sake one Barclay Justin Jefferson Let's go DJ shark. Let's go Marquis. Goodwin. Let's go Kenneth And we'll commit. Let's be met Okay At 74 50 left for a quarterback and a flex to have a defense in there yet Yeah, the Saints So I can make that work pretty easily So you can get a sake one Jefferson stack as long as you prioritize it and my question is why wouldn't you on this slate like I know that using Jefferson does cost you McCaffrey actually Maybe it won't me just It does cost you McCaffrey, but Honestly, I'm not gonna have a calf for in every lineup anyway, so it's not like the worst loss I guess so Is this game good enough where you would consider that for your main lineup? Yes, okay, because I think it's I think it's close. Yeah, I think I'd want to have a stack of Kansas City Seattle in there somehow but I'm okay with like, you know, let's say I have I'll have more but like let's say I have two lineups I'm gonna have probably a sake one Jefferson stack and one of them. I think that's the way I'd phrase it And this is not like earth shattering But I think it's something that people won't necessarily prioritize enough because of the salaries being what they are and Because we have Derek Henry and Christian McCaffrey Like it's hard in a vacuum to say I'd rather play just in Jefferson And at the expense of not being able to play Christian McCaffrey this week because their salaries are almost identical but If you are just taking the angle in that specific lineup that this game is a you know back and forth Yeah Vikings affair where it ends up scoring what's like 70 some total total points like typical Vikings nonsense So yeah, anything else here for you So you can build a say Kwan Jefferson McCaffrey lineup if you want to go Naked Gardner Minshew, which I think is his baseline state is just naked. I feel like this dude does not wear clothes So like naked Minshew You can do that and like I'm probably gonna have this lineup Somewhere because getting a say Kwan McCaffrey Jefferson without using anybody. I hate outside of the Bears defense Kind of hate that but like whatever I'm okay with that. I think that's pretty fun. So yeah, I think it's worth prioritizing now I think the bigger question is what about Rich rebar uses the term ancillary jabronis. I'm gonna steal that so rich shout out to you at Laura Reeves on Twitter Any ancillary jabronis for you in this game having a really hard time with KJ Osborne? Really hard time within what way because we know that he had the great game last week Not a whole lot before that Led me to believe that that game was ha going to happen. I don't know if it was match-up specific I think he's a good player. Yeah, he's made some plays but the salary of 6,100 I'm gonna say like it's Absurdly high, but it's higher than I would like for it to be it pushes him outside of like the Well, I'm gonna play all the guys in the 57 58 range because he's just a bit higher than that that adds up I Think he's game stacks only for me, but I'm really not Like I'm pretty receptive to Kirk Cousins and Daniel Jones in this game reference between the two Probably cousins Because as much as we want to knock him for not having a ceiling he has an okay ceiling if you Assume that the rest of the slate is gonna be so marred by weather that Mahomes is not gonna put up, you know 40 Their paths to other guys kind of just being okay, and if that's the case cousins just being okay with 25 is is totally fine Yeah, I think I'd rather go elsewhere, but I get what you're saying and it makes sense I just think not really for me necessarily now the receivers in this game outside of Jefferson You've got Daria Slayton who is sixty three hundred dollars, which is just I think that's like the Jason Co crack salary It's he's sixty three perpetually he'll never change. Yeah, I Think among the receivers I like him most like Including Osport including feeling including Richie James who has a low salary I think I'd prefer to go Slayton because the Vikings left a lot of downfield targets And that's kind of the weaknesses like getting burned outside and Slayton hasn't had a big game recently But he has like again the threshold for me Which will change this week is because of lows the lowest totals But like can you give me 85 yards or two touchdowns? He can get 85 yards. He's done that several times this year Whereas I don't think feeling can get that. I don't think I guess to get that I don't think Richie James can get that He's 52 so it's a low salary, but I I don't know if the juice is there to like be a difference maker so I think that a Like a Dalvin Slayton stack might be kind of different a different way to get there very different And I could be into that as well. So of the non Like star pieces in this game. I would say Slayton's my favorite Salary is not low, but I also don't think it's high enough to like make him off the map for me in game stacks two game stacks only Probably because if it's not a game stack, I'm probably going down to Charker Goodwin or Johan Dotson potentially. Yeah, I'm with you. Okay. Let's move on to the Eagles at the Cowboys Spread us down to four and a half now in this game Cowboys four and a half point favorites Despite no Jalen Hertz in this game total still high at 46 points. The Eagles implied total is like decent relative to the slate So I'm gonna ask you about this this game in general, but I want to ask you first is Gardner Minch who in play at $6,100 He is I think a lot of it has to do with the fact that it's on the week 16 main slate And there's a lot of well There are a lot of concerns with weather a lot of concerns with look There are high upside quarterbacks on the slate. Yes, and they can all you know all those guys can put up big games But the odds that they do that are a lot lower than they would be if there were no weather concerns in these same matchups so The fear of missing out on a huge game plus I mean Josh Allen Salary of 9500 is Leaves you I mean my home's up there at 92 is is very close as well But like leaves you almost no room for error in that Conversation for the rest of your lineup. So within that context, I think Minchew with Dallas Goddard Devonte Smith a G Brown like It he should be able to move the needle a little bit Yeah, I think that Minchew is the biggest reason why I don't want to play Kirk Cousins because that I would agree with Like that's the reason he's Kirk is because he has upside in terms of like good infrastructure around him Game is indoors stuff like that Minchew has that for a lower salary So I think that's my key sticking point of cousins that I like Minchew more to save salary in defense of Kirk Cousins, I think he's a tier above Gardner Minchew Once we factor in salary, I understand it But yeah, yeah, no, you're right. You're right. And like his team is favored not as bad of a matchups like you're right It's an apples to oranges, but you know oranges are tasty, too if we look we look back to week 13 last year that was a game that Minchew started where They actually had something on the line for the Eagles because he played week 18 where they had nothing on the line But in week 13 against the Jets, they had 29 plays on early downs in the first half 13 passes 16 rushes. So pretty rush heavy script I think that means the ceiling is likely pretty muted, but now he's AJ Brown. So that helps quite a bit And you know the Cowboys secondary is pretty banged up. I also think that that So we talked about this two weeks ago Where I said I had Christian McCaffrey is a love and I was like I don't like using running backs tied to back or quarterbacks But I think that Miles Sanders falls under the but distinction this week as well because in that game against the Jets He had I think 21 rush attempts in the first three quarters both Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell were active for that game and Sanders got a lot of work. This is an important game for the Eagles I know people try to say it's not but they have not locked up the division yet They have to win just one of their final three games and the Cowboys could lose one and they'd win But that's not a hundred percent and I don't want to jack around if I can end this thing early personally Come calm down like I think they want to win this game pretty badly and I think that that could lead to a decent amount of work for Miles Sanders if he gets steamed up because of the back of Quarterback narrative, which I think is stupid Then I'd go away, but what? I'm not like on Twitter very much So I love hearing like the the backup quarterback narrative that you're Angry about that exists too much and I'm like not even that aware of it, which is probably a you know Bad on my part not to be like tuned into the public as much, but yeah, I would never consider playing a running back more With a huge downgraded quarterback. There are people who do So to get angry about that idea. I'm not angry. I think it's I just don't subscribe to it I don't like you can think what you think that's fine. You can do whatever you want But I like miles I wait in Vanderesh not gonna play this week I think that's an upgrade for miles Sanders to in terms of the matchup. So I like him less than Kenneth Walker, but I would say between him and Pacheco and JK Dobbins as like Differentiators off of Kenneth Walker in the 7000 range. I would say I would rank them walk around one with a bullet Sanders to Pacheco 3 Dobbins 4 I agree, okay So you're higher on Minshew than I am a little bit play any pass catchers Yeah, I Will have some Goddard's I like Schultz more in this game at a slightly lower salary But I will use some Goddard's I will use some Devontae Smith I'll use some AJ Brown, but just part as parts of game stacks for me. What about you? What really helps is the obviously the low salary for Minshew you can offset the $8,500 salary for for AJ Brown. I Will I will use them if I get to Minshew if I'm if I'm not willing to play Minshew I can't be that excited at those elevated salaries for those guys aside from I guess Goddard just because tight end is Always a wreck but to finish up with this game. I Know there's I know ranges of outcomes are real like I do a lot You know with that what is like your what's your expectation from Minshew? What number are you kind of thinking? He gets me 17. I'm I'm glad with that play because of what it earned me Does he need like 20 is anything below 20 a failure like what are you kind of what's your expectation? I Don't think you can be happy with any quarterbacks going less than 20 And I need them to have the potential to get 30 even if they're low at 61 and That's why I still prefer Justin Fields in 78 over Minshew despite the weather That's why I prefer Patrick Mahomes at his salary, but I think that Minshew is like like if we're ranking the guys most likely to get me You know like four times their implied salary Minshew's probably like top five in that discussion Right maybe yeah, like at at value like baseline value. Yeah, yeah, totally baseline value is very flawed So I don't want that to be like an oh an endorsement of that approach, but I Was given the number if it weren't for all like the desirable studs in this late like McCaffrey Henry Jefferson Barclay et cetera et cetera It'd be a different discussion I think and if one for the other quarterbacks on this late like Alan being downgraded you to wind Hurts not playing Borough playing and wind against a very tough defense stuff like that I think I'd I would just cross him off, but I think with all those factors considered. He's on my list Because I have him so like I do what's called like a boom-bust ratio It's like your percentage of having a good floor game versus a good ceiling game. Minshew is second Behind Mahomes in that metric That's not to say that he's very likely to have a huge game. I have him at 8% to get to 25 Okay, 24 25 percent to get to 20 basically I Think I'd use that 25 number as like a an exposure guiding star north star Yeah, I think that's fair 20 25 percent of him opens up. Yeah. Okay. Let's talk cowboys. We have CD lamb I think he's awesome. You know hot take I Love Tony Pollard in this game at 77, especially people decide that they don't want to go there They might I can't get a read on him honestly because people love Pollard But also I think they see how much Zeke is using a complaint about bats like they might want not want to use Pollard So I like lamb and Pollard Pretty sure I'm done with Michael Gallup. I don't know I Don't know man. I think there are better salary savers this week So if it's in a game stack, I might have a share but you know and then shaltz I think it's a really good play at 61. What's your view the cowboys and can you use Dak? I can use Dak Again in the assumption that same thing with like Kirk Cousins if I assume like this is the game that scores a lot of points Dak Has not had the ceiling game people You know don't really seem to like that very much. It's weird Census people are like digging him because Noah Brown dropped a pass with OT like people get mad at Dak for that Like how dare you force Noah Brown to drop this pass on off his hands Speaking of Noah Brown, he might rather play now brown and Michael Gallup honestly Yeah, Dax and play Pollard in play probably not gonna get to Zeke other the salaries back down a bit I think this is just more game stack dependent because of the Minshew situation where it's hard to prioritize these guys Outside of like the assumption that this is a huge game and if I'm gonna do that then I'll probably be playing like Dak or Minshew in those lineups Like I don't know if this is the right mini stack game because I don't want to get to like Davante Smith and Pollard sure plugged into other Priority stacks. I think a mild Sanders Pollard stack is fine with me It does occupy two running backs thoughts Yeah, just kind of in a way, and I think that's probably but it's kind of the same salary as like a walker Saquon stack and this gets you a game stack and a dome. So I Think there are drawbacks to it, but I think it's It's something I'll do Sanders Schultz game stack to occupy tight end. I don't mind. But yeah, it's not the best mini stack game I agree that yeah, I'd rather go full stack than any stack in this one personally and take advantage of the Low salary for the quarterbacks and a potential potentially good game. Exactly. I agree that okay Let's dig into the trends here for week number 16 starting off with you talking about the 49ers with Brock Purdy a quarterback facing off with Washington for this week. What do you see in with this offense and the superstar rock Purdy? No, I thought super okay. I just want to talk about Christian Kaffey basically Well, I want to talk about the superstar the best player of the team Brock Purdy. Yeah, that's true I mean, what's just what's his record as a starting QB? That's all I all I want to know I mean QB wins baby Yeah, one of the best off in the situation actually before did you know that he has a brother named Shubba? Shubba Purdy Didn't I know that yeah, I want I wish Shubba were in the NFL too I don't know if he has anything weirdness, but I don't I shouldn't I don't know a lot about him But I know his name is Shubba. I want Shubba Purdy in the NFL at some point I think he's still in college. He's been in college for like eight years, but I want Shubba Purdy in the NFL Go ahead. Let me know what okay It's one of the better offensive situations on the slate this week for San Francisco in a planted home, you know nice weather especially whenever comparing it to Danger like dangerously cold weather in some spots But because I wanted the best implied team total was outside the bookmaker six Which I think I'm gonna make a thing the bookmaker six or the six teams in the bookmaker info section I like that those are like yeah, yeah But they play Washington who's really solid defensively top ten in both adjusted past defense where their eighth and rush defense where they're first according to number fire, but You know I'm gonna look at Brock Purdy a little bit deeper and make sure that you know He can do something against the tough defense his adjusted numbers are basically the same as Jimmy Garoppolo's Purdy's averaging point two four passing that expected points per drop-back without adjusting league averages like point one one But he's point one six over expectation Which basically just means he's playing well above what he would if he played to the level of the defense as he's faced that Adjusted number ranks right between Jared Goff and Josh Allen and I will not specify which one is the higher of the two But it is Jared Goff Thought you'd like that one Jim That's not to say that Brock Purdy is better than Josh Allen Although it sounds like Jim might be there already calling him a super snow. No, no, no not Josh Allen. I can't know There's a line. It's it's below that But we can we can talk off air about where that line is But you know sure Efficiency wise Purdy's been doing enough to keep this offensive float now I think though the only sample to look at is like or the best sample is last week without Debo Whenever the team just like force-fed Christian McCaffrey 26 carries Team high eight targets for 138 yards in a score over the past three games Without Mitchell without Purdy McCaffrey's averaging over 145 scrimmage yards over 33 adjusted opportunities per game almost 80% of the snaps Over 81% of the routes Phenomenal red zone share of 70% Like there's no So long as Purdy, you know plays like he's been playing which is good relative to expectation There's really no reason to downgrade McCaffrey The targets last week after McCaffrey went to George Kittle who had five Joanne Jennings who had five Brandon. I used just four Ray Ray McLeod had three in terms of routes though It's notable that I you did run every route Kittle was 89% Jennings at 85% which I think is noteworthy McCaffrey 85% though as well, which is super noteworthy super sick for running back I'm in the McLeod at 59% so like if this team does play to expectation Which is still putting up points even in a tough situation there could be maybe more to life and just Christian McCaffrey because Washington at least has some appeal with value receivers specifically Johan Dotson on the other side So like I don't want to say it's just McCaffrey or bust in this game because I think that there's a little bit more But I think George Kittle at 7,000 Brandon you get 68 kind of hard to prioritize given their market shares within this offense. So Like I don't know if we should consider someone like Joanne Jennings probably not in the in like a different slate But on this kind of slate where this is the one of the better situations I'm a little more open to it because we need so many value receivers to begin with but what are your thoughts on this game We know you love Christian McCaffrey. We already know that but anything else in this game stand out to you Yeah, I think that the Dotson shout out is good I agree with you the Dotson might be a good bring-back option because like the one piece against Dotson previously had been that you know There wasn't a lot of yardage there. He was feasting on touchdowns But 80 or 105 yards last week called in a couple of deep targets that try to throw a lot in this game Because I don't think they'll be able to run against this front So I think that a McCaffrey Dotson stack works well I agree the thoughts on Kittle and Iuk just really high salaries as much as we love the superstar Brock Purdy He's still back up third string quarterback Tied to guys with high salaries and on a rush first team. That's tough to get to so I'm I'm not gonna use Joanne Jennings But I will definitely use Dotson as a bring-back. I will love McCaffrey fully on board with you there But I think that the other guys kind of tough to get to for me Yeah, and again, like we we do trends not to say here's why we love a team It's yeah to explore more on teams that we're not focused on it's it to say should we love this team. Yeah Speaking of that, let's talk about the bills and high wind because should we love this team great question? Don't know the total for the Bears Bills game is creeping down I think it's 39 and a half right now actually might have gone back 40 and a half. Hey, we're back up Okay back above 40 It's low because of weather wind speeds projected at 19 miles per hour and a blizzard is ruined through Chicago earlier in the week I'm getting to Chicago tomorrow night and it'll immediately be 11 to 17 inches on Friday sick. Welcome home. Love it Luckily, we have a very big sample on the bills playing in heavy winds So I wanted to see what expectation should look like in this situation This will be the sixth time this year the bills to play the game with wind speeds in the double digits This will be the highest number thus far in those five games the bills have averaged 25.8 points per game the games on the whole of averaged a 43.4 points They've gone under the bookmaker total in four to five games I think this one is different because it's come down a lot But the bills did score 30 points themselves twice which is not nothing on this slate and Josh Allen still scored well for DFS himself He's averaged 26.3 fandal points per game in those games. That's actually above his full season mark He scored 36.2 in one of those games. That's his highest output this year Allen has scored 26 plus fandal points in three of the games He had 20 in all of them and that includes the first game after his elbow injury So Allen is still viable, but the games do tend to be low scoring. Is he viable enough to justify 95? Tough, I don't know. Siphan Diggs has gotten very good volume in these games He's averaged 11 targets per game in heavy winds because the bills are freaks If you look at the games where Mackenzie is Isaiah Mackenzie is played it's 11 per game 2.8 d targets per game Gabe Davis has gotten 2.3 d targets per game and 6.0 overall the games of Mackenzie So pretty close to his typical workload Three of his four biggest yardage outputs this year have come in games in heavy winds though One of those was with Mackenzie out. So I'm not saying you should bump up Dave Davis and win win That's not that I'm saying I Thought he'd be a cross-off in the heavy winds. I no longer think that Which is I think an actual takeaway here. So even with the wind Allen is in play Probably won't get there because of salary, but I think he's in play digs it in play I think Davis is very much in play That's especially true of all these guys one of getting glossed over Because of the weather in this game You know that I care as much about wind as anybody I hope more Yeah, more about winds, but it seems like find someone who looks at you the way Jim looks at a wind forecast Find just the way I look at domes. I wish every stadium were domed that'd be my first movies commissioner put a roof on it Or else you're exiled In my dumb to still be kind of interested in the bills here despite the heavy wind No, that's a really good like on paper matchup otherwise my question though and like my concern is I Can like Josh Allen all I want. I don't think I'm gonna get there. Yeah There's not a whole lot on The other side to bring it back with I think there are better plays than Stefan digs at the top I don't think this game is gonna be a true shootout But now I like both quarterbacks well enough Don't have a whole lot of stacking options. So I guess like the main access point would be like Just in fields by himself and Stefan digs But like I think I think Khalil Herbert coming back makes the The backfield for both of these sides now hard to get to so like I'm with you where I'm not Overly concerned, but I don't actually know if it's gonna change anything to the point that I can or want to prioritize this offense so I Think the one way to play it could be a fields Commets Gabe Davis game stack Yeah, because that's a lot of low-salary guys and allows you to get McCaffrey you can get to you know I can get a game stack of chief Seahawks in there as well So I think that works with fields and heavy wins. He's played in heavy wins almost every game this year Eight out of 13 games. He's played have been in double-digit win speeds Including every home game except for the monsoon game against the 49ers that was low wins, but it was down for so His two 40 burgers both came in heavy wins so I think that he can still go nuts and If I think that Gabe Davis can still get deep work That's not bad. So I think a field to met Davis game stack is very in play Where does that kind of rank for you relative to Like a chief stack with Mahomes at quarterback because I'm thinking just quarterback specifically here Like Dak or Minshew stacks I would say Mahomes chiefs one Dak Minshew two That's great. Like that's country. Yeah, and then fields would be fourth for me. I think I think I'm all right with that okay Yeah, it's a little concerning like how low the betting markets are on this game, but I I'm not gonna ask you like cousins because I know that you're not there, but I would probably put fields Field stacks above like cousins and Danny dimes. I agree Every time you say every time anyone says cousins like from watching a Vikings game I think of the show of the bear which Takes place in Chicago and just includes like these two guys shot and cousin at each other And I think of that every time I hear her cousins you would hate that show by the way don't watch it But I started it. I loved how I'm non-stop and frantic It was it was a panic attack for a half an hour a voluntary panic attack for a half an hour Good stuff, but great show people love it. It's a great show. It's not for me It's not a brand-new show and that's okay And by the way everyone if you have TV recommendations tailor them to the people you're giving them to like Jim's not gonna recommend that show to me There are certain shows. I'm not gonna recommend a gym Just just because you like a show doesn't mean that everyone's gonna like it So then whenever you give like tailored recommendations people will probably have a better experience with that just I'm glad that I know you all enough to know that you would not like the bear despite it being great show This is this is friendship. I like that. Okay, let's move to your second trend and talk about the Bengals because they're an actually good offense They are pretty healthy right now They're playing in a not terrible game for whether it's not great, but not terrible But they're facing a very tough defense So you're gonna dig into the numbers and say what we should think about the Bengals this week against the Patriots Yeah, I mean we can get like cute and a lot of different ways and try to find Stacks and do whatever but we kind of have like the Bengals staring us in the face Without a ton of concern like it's not like you said, it's not great weather, but it's not horrible It's not a good match up But it's a great offense. So, you know what what exists here And could this be the team that changes everything for us They play the Patriots on the road After New England had the letdown of all letdowns To enter game last week, but I knew England seed New England's top three and adjusted pass and rush defense according to number fires metrics But Joe borrows averaging point one for passing that expected points over expectation per drop back Which is really dope on his splits versus good defense still pretty decent Point one to passing that expected points per drop back So about league average against the best of the best defenses 225 yards per game, but 2.7 touchdowns per game Now all three of those were on the road I think that's noteworthy for this split and overall Borough on the road is averaging 256 yards and 2.4 touchdowns per game because he's great. He's like the man In games with Jamar Chase T Higgins Joe Nixon and Tyler Boyd all playing at least half the snaps Which is six games. So our chase has a 27% target share 38% air yard share almost 10 targets per game Four and a half downfield targets per game, which for me are 10 plus yards downfield Almost a 30% red zone share. He's awesome I know I pointed out like Devonte Adams last week against the Patriots and you know, wasn't ideal necessarily but I I believe more in Joe Borough getting the ball to So our chase then Even Derek Carr writing the ship and getting Devonte involved But just kind of wanted to just throw that out there T Higgins 23% target share 33% of the air yards eight and a half targets per game 3.7 downfield per game. That's awesome Tyler Boyd not so much under 15% target share I might be getting Hayden Hurst back Which would not lower me on Higgins or Chase, but just would lower me on Boyd if that's the case Only 5.3 targets per game for him And then Joe Nixon 13% target share four and eight targets four point eight targets per game for him Now over the past two games after Nixon's return His workload is down 20.5 adjusted opportunities per game by a way of 12 and a half carries in four targets for 80 yards per game But still, you know, almost a 30% red zone opportunity share, which is not just rushes, but all plays 11.4% target share with more routes than some Ajp run But the snap rate is down to about 60% from around 73% The yards are down about 15 per game two game sample yards can kind of fluctuate But the salary is down as well. That's something that we need to point out The Patriots defense has like that reputation of being able to shut down the opposing team's best player Thing is with the Bengals, they have like at least two guys. You could kind of say are the best player like Maybe three. Obviously, we know it's Jamar Chase is like the number one focal point But Mark Andrews did some stuff against the Patriots 89 yards and two touchdowns on 13 targets Justin Jefferson 139 and a score on 11 targets Stefan digs 92 and a touchdown on nine targets They've allowed seven games this season of 85 plus receiving yards to individuals. That's around the league average So they're still kind of gettable And then the Bengals might be sitting here like you try to figure out ways to be different but playing Joe Burrow and stacking him with some great options or playing Joe Mixon I think it's viable any thoughts here on Cincinnati. I think that like The FOMO factor is pretty high with them because they can do that and which probably means I should just use them But I don't want to use every quarterback and I think the appeal of Once you consider everything like including wins Game context matchup. I think the appeal of Mahomes Dak Minshew fields is all higher and I don't really want to get to a fifth quarterback this week So if you're doing 150 line-ups, you should have burrow stacks in there for sure I'm not going to do that though. Yeah, so because like you said, I have family stuff I need to do this weekend So I am altering how much I'm playing this week as a result um So I'm not going to get to burrow. I think that That could be a mistake though So I think that what you're saying is correct and I do fear that I will not get there despite that But that might be dumb. That's that's my assessment of it I'm with you too. Where I don't think I'll quite get there myself, but yeah I know I'm talking about Kirk Cousins. Like I think he's a viable play It could be one of those like could I really not have played Joe burrow instead? Yeah, if I get to a fifth quarterback could be burrow. I think I think so too. Yeah, it's a like It's not a great matchup. They're on the road. I get it But a large part of DFS is finding out where people are over like what spots people are overlooking, right? Maybe they'll be chalky. I don't know. But you know Like It's hard to I don't know. Do you prefer Jamar chase or Stefan digs this week straight up? Could I get chase? um Chase Yeah, I think so. Yeah. That's that's fair The one counterpoint here is that this game in my model has the Third lowest total of the week considering wins game environments stuff like that pace things like that It's above only the Cleveland, New Orleans game and the Houston, Tennessee game. So it's pretty low, but That that everything is kind of low this week. So it's not a huge demerit for it Speaking of that Houston, Tennessee game. Let's talk about the Titans offense if we assume the Malik Bullis plays let's dig into this offense and See what to expect because yeah, I mean obviously this does change things, but They are still four and a half point favorites. The the Texans defense is playing better, but I I want to see what we could expect and the the first thing to expect is Zero passing volume because in the two games will have started 10 and 16 pass attempts respectively He threw for 55 and 80 yards, which means no chick a conco this week. No trail on berks. They're dust They did though provide a bump to Derek Henry because in those two games Henry Average 171.5 yards from scrimmage per game 75 red zone share He had just 25.5 adjust opportunities per game But that was in part due to a negative script against Kansas City. And again, there's still four and a half point favorites here So likely a positive script. My model has been favored by 5.7 in this game after putting willis in as a starter so I think that's intriguing for Henry the question is The macafery thing because we have macafery whose workload is better Even if we have milk will is the starter for the titans However, the matchup is definitely better for Henry. So How does your view of the top end change if we assume the week will is the starting is it still No doubt it's macafery. Number one is Henry at least in the discussion now for you Do you give consideration to potentially going nuts and jamming in both? How does your view of the top end of running back change? With malik willis in there potentially opening a more rushing efficiency for Derek Henry um Do you know how many yards? What are the fewest number of scrimmage yards? For Derek Henry over his past four starts against Houston. Well, he has 205 straight. So 200 rushing yards and five straight against Houston, I think I don't think it's that many. Okay. It's four straight. Whatever. Anyway, it's more than 200 I know unless did they plan to play out in pool playoff numbers, but uh, I don't think the taxes have made the playoffs Maybe they have I actually don't know but But over his past four starts a regular season. I can I can say that for sure 211 264 250 and 228 scrimmage yards Which is pretty sick if I'm being honest. Yeah multiple touchdowns of both also kind of like if I'm I'm kind of sick as well like but I do think that he's in the same tier as macafery, but probably at the bottom of that tier sure and I don't quite know if I mean, maybe I could play both That would come at the expense of I think my favorite like high salary going all out Approach was macafery barkley and jesson jefferson. Yeah Maybe I just tweak that to Henry macafery and then just kind of mid-range receivers and value receivers But he's very close to like he's in that same tier as macafery, but I have macafery tier one. What's up? So You can get Henry and macafery in the same lineup Without using any single players. We have not discussed already You can yeah, I would I would believe that you can get a gardener minshew stack with davante smith Like or you can go you could go uh gardener minshew stack with ballast goddard's let's get smith out of there and you can get to tony pollard So you can have a cowboys eagles game stack while having Derek Henry and christian macafery And you're gonna hate yourself a little bit at wide receiver like using dj charke marquise goodwin and then Player to be named later, but You can make it work. I want to have at least one lineup With macafery and henry because I think that this is actually the week where that's that's worth it for once Yeah, you might get 55 combined From your two running backs there. I know they're high salaries like 55 from one of them it's just being like you know I wasn't I wasn't just gonna say there's they're both gonna get 30, but what it is what it is. Okay, so this lineup has A full game stack of eagles cowboys it has a game stack a mini stack of 49ers commanders And that's it, but it has there's a full stack in a mini stack. It's actually a good process Fish kind of lineup And I'm not spending below 77 at running back I kind of like it yeah If you've got one lineup, you got a single bullet. I think that is at least a a build you consider is a bad phrase it I would agree with that Okay, um If I give you one lineup that you're going to macafery over henry correct correct Okay, well, let's go now To our player loves for week number 16 starting off at quarterback brand and what you're doing over there I don't actually know what i'm doing here because I don't I don't know if these are These aren't my two guys anymore. Okay. Just tell me who you like now after we discuss it all Well, I had joe burrow and kurt cousins. I thought like Initially they were going to be the guys, but I'm going to prioritize is this your two? No, it's not Um, I'm going to prioritize my homes Yep Because that game is stackable and I can get to my homes um And then well, I guess yeah Minshew Yeah, I'm really liking what minshew gets me this week Yeah, I think that if if if it weren't for the appeal of henry And macafery and jefferson and sake wanted if it weren't for how good those studs are I think that mitsha would be less appealing, but I think for this week specifically does great out well I do think it's a different like a different situation than why don't we just play every quarterback Right who opens up at like 65 or below to start like It's not really the thing. I think minshew is capable of holding this offense that has like four Four proble level offensive talents like Not counting the offensive line. Yeah Jim this is a fantasy football show. We talk about The four positions the four. Wow tight end. Disrespect. Disrespectful. Oh, no, sorry. I was thinking What you think of flex was the position the the tasim roll. Yeah, he's in that position Um, I agree that my homes is gettable this week and is therefore desirable I think that in my home's kelsey stack Is really tough even honestly we have a lot of value but like Should you not try to get it in there at times? You definitely can especially with like the the walker good win Yeah, I don't know if I'd go double tight end without a fan I don't I don't that what a sunday million like a couple weeks ago. I think it's that's it it can happen. It's not me very curious um I just think that at a certain point kelsey salaried is impossible to overcome if he's not phenomenal. So yeah I do think the one thing in favor of him is that if you compare him to the higher salaried wide receivers jefferson great love him But chases in tough matchup high winds digs high winds a j brown back of quarterback a monorah saint brown the playing on the road in in some winds see the lands great, but like kelsey relative to the high 8000 receivers not as much of a disadvantage as usual kelsey or metcalf metcalf, yeah I'm thinking more like kelsey is like if you give me 10 maho maho's lineups Probably like three or four kelsey, right? Yeah, it's probably low lower than usual, but I think with his salary. It's Justifiably lower other guy had it and my love outside of maho's was fields I do like minchu too and I like to act but fields Like the wind matters and I love I love wind But again, if you're looking at fields from a backwards facing perspective His baseline has been playing in wind this year So you don't need to doubt you can't double count the winds because he's already been playing in already the entire season or bad weather throughout most of the season The bill's defense loss von miller, which means they're more vulnerable now to Quarterbacks in general. He's 7800 dollars. He's dropped 40 in high winds twice already this year I think fields, especially if we get the read that he'll be glossed over this week is a very good play for dfs If he winds up being popular, which I doubt then sure pivot to to dak pivot to minchu stuff like that but I think fields is in consideration for like a single bullet kind of discussion for this week Your favorite lineup this week. Who is it going to have a quarterback? It's probably going to involve minchu Yeah, I don't know man like It's probably minchu or maho's which means I don't know maybe fields is third for me But yeah, I think that's where I wind up I think those three are separating though And I put dak a fourth. I think as I rank quarterbacks right now Personally running back. What'd you got there? I'm a calfery. He was right down on monday morning. That's that hasn't changed talk about talked about his role already Just phenomenal. He's really good. And I don't care about the match up too much because he's christian mccaffery and Um, he's very good and gets a lot of work. So I feel like we have discussed him enough a stick one barkley is my number two um much more realistic to get Uh to barkley instead of henry and my mccaffery lineups. They're doable, but it's a lot easier to go down to seiquan And in the event that I don't play mccaffery Like I want to get to my homes in kelsey or something like that But still want to make sure I get exposure to the the top I think there's like the top three at running back then i'm okay settling for barkley, which is a nice consolation prize Week 15 against the nfl's best adjusted rush defense last week 18 carries for 87 yards, which was 13.3 more than expectation with the 50 rushing success rate eight targets Another good good ish rush defense this week, but uh, minnesota 29th and adjusted fandal points were target allowed to running backs Like that and then third love canith walker another what right down for this week 6900 is a really nice salary um 75 of snaps on a short week I'm gonna get some extra rest with that mini by 79 yards on 17 opportunities against a really really good defense and the chiefs are not a really really good Rush defense tell the lockets out which could lead to more It's like the inverse of the michael hardman effect and jerrick mckinnon And great in the inverse walker 30 routes on thursday, which was 64 in five targets He's probably my favorite play of the week at salary at any any position I love christian mccaffrey, but I can play canith walker in almost every lineup I think that's i can't do that with mccaffrey. I think that's true from here the walker too. I also had walker mccaffrey in my loves Like relative to salary. I know mccaffrey salary is high, but he's still better than everyone except for walker relative to salary Um, so I adore those two guys the one guy I had different and I do like say quanta lot too And I want to use say quanta to get access to that game to stack that game I don't want to overlook tony pollard. I'm not sure how much attention he'll get Uh, but he's really fun. Still he's had 104.8 yards of storage per game since zeke's return The cowboys can still win the nfc east Like people are treating as if it's over. It's not over like it's the eagles have a 98 chance to win Uh, the division or the first overall seed That's not a hundred percent man Still a shot with three weeks left. Um I think they're gonna push. There's a chance. I'm telling you there's a chance pollard has had good work He is a tremendous football player as salaries come down to 7700 I don't think sentiments on him is as high as it was previously He had 12.6 fatal points without a touchdown last week. That's awesome So I think he's great and I want to get to tony pollard to get access to a very fun game Let's go to wide receiver. What are you giving me there? I have juju smith shuster 7300. I think he's a really really good play this week. Um, You know, we might get me co-harmon back and kaderis. Tony was back In a sort of minimal roll last week those could both scale up, but The cheese have a lot of Ancillary jibroni's shout out to rich Who's I I think their role would dip before juju? It seems like they want juju to be there They're wide receiver one. Um, he had 10 targets last week for 88 yards Seattle's average and adjusted fandal points per target a lot of receivers really good game environment Best overall implied team total for a reasonable salary I made a I made a keen and allen comparison last week I think you could maybe say like juju's sort of keen and allen light were I'm gonna blow you away with the yardage, but the volume I think is very safe And so I like his yardage website is better than keen ins too though It's possible. Yeah Which is a turn for us based on yeah Where we've been on juju in the past, but look if I love all those receiver or uh running backs. I can't say I'm gonna like Prioritize high salaried receivers. So I'm going down to marquis goodwin at 58 for my second love Goodwin has been at the seattle seahawks number three receiver all year with a lot of separation over everybody else um Tyler locket and goodwin have the same adot I think that there could be some overlapping routes there that the goodwin takes over Without without tyler locket Goodwin's got a catch rate over expectation of 10.3 points, which is unsustainable, but is also pretty dope Uh, 14.8 target per out rate as it's like the third or fourth option is fine that's like in the marquez vod at scantling george pickins Like tyler boy type of tier which we would consider those guys If they were losing a tyler locket 25 target share. So I'm in on is everything all right The dog was barking. I didn't know why and I was making sure he wasn't like something weird happening She was doing making weird noises. I had to check on her. She's good. That's one check Uh, and then I know it's socks that have her on them by the way I'll wear them for podcasts someday and show The feet on the podcast get our get our views up I don't know if that would get our views up. Does that count as showing feet if there are socks on them? I don't know. I don't want to ask that question. So I'm gonna talk about dj shark instead I'll find a consultant to let me know The roll dipped last week, but had some tough coverage and in four games with his routes back up 13.8 target share but 16.4 target share if you wait the targets for downfield and red zone work five five targets per game in that sample 3.3 downfield per game Uh carolina 30th in completion rate over expectation allowed 23rd and 8 out allowed So it could be a truck week yet again Uh dj shark salary 57 should be I mean, it's it's windy and it's outdoors. So I would say his appropriate salary is probably 77 this week Not 50 instead of like 12 7 or whatever it has been in the past. Love it Okay, I have dj shark is my third love as well for the same reasons you mentioned 43 deep target share in the full games. He has played this year Jared golf has actually been pretty efficient in road games this year where iman rasain brown has played full snaps So I like shark as well. My first love is dk mech half. Um I do think it's important to downgrade offense is when they lose legit wide receivers But part of the thought process there is okay. How does the guy deal with with tougher coverage? A can the cheese provide that with their current defense and b It's dk freaking mech half like I vomit every time someone says this guy's an alpha But like you don't get more alpha ish than dk mech half 26 percent overall target share 32 deep and 37 percent inside the red zone while playing with locket now No lockets. So dk mech half 8000 Rockstar level play this week I do want to talk about gave davis again. I talked about him briefly Maybe I should talk game rosa is upset about gave. She's not a big game person apparently But I am um, I know the wind is high and I think that should downgrade him, but again Six targets per game in winds 2.3 deep targets per game in games with isaac mackenzie No one's gonna use him banged up secondary 64 to dollars slay changing upside His 171 yard game came in high winds I think he's interesting still so I want to make sure I get some gave gave davis Will he be in like a single bullet lineup potentially knocks? I'll probably go with like a good win shark situation there, but He's a consideration for it. I would say um say that's where I'd be with him tight end. What you doing there? I'm gonna start with my second love here. Cole commit at 51 Just a really low salary and opens up a lot to get to the running backs Especially in lineups where I'm not playing Gardner minchew, but there's a lot of downside with the the individual matchup against this defense and the wind concerns, but If you really factor in salary, there's not a like they're they're Good situations good building blocks for upside, but it's not as scary as some other slates have been for tight ends for me Commets average six targets in 48 and a half yards per game in two games since fields returned which is 26 percent of targets Love the bears, but they should probably trail here And notably buffalo Seven ends or targets faced by tight ends have not yet allowed a touchdown on them yet Some might say that some might say that they're really good But some us some of us might say like there's some regression coming. So Just just saying My first love was mark andrew's because I was assuming lamar was going to come back and I think that andrew's at 64 All of the downside is kind of factored in fully with andrew's in that matchup against the falcons at 64 but I'll pivot and just say that i'm gonna play dallas goddard a good amount especially stacked with Gardner minchew. So but if we do get lamar like full Yeah, you know, we he's good. I think mark andrew's could be I think everything is factored in to that salary for andrew's I'd fully agree if we get full lamar by thursday in practice I would go with andrew's too. My first love is dalton schultz similar thought process to goddard But he has his starting quarterback. That's kind of the main differentiator for me with going to schultz 18 percent target share for schultz in the games Since noah brown return with a 31 red zone target share He has yardage upside. They're playing indoors big matchup for them. So I think that schultz is a great play this week At 61 I also have to commit you have seven and five targets in the two games with no darnell muni If they can throw in the wind, they probably will have two against the bills He's got some yardage use as well. So 51. I think that can that grades out well defense. What you do in there? I'm trying to get to the saints It's really easy to just punt completely with defense to squeeze like the final few guys Into your lineup, but the saints I kind of want to build into my default lineups and try to work around that So that I at least have some salary for defense 13th and adjusted past defense this game is going to be super windy Which is generally good for defenses based on the research I've done And uh, Deshaun Watson not very good football right now He is not so the saints are interesting. I think the browns are interesting in that game. Um, we typically want like, um Higher total games because it implies more pace But I think in this situation might be drastic enough like you said the wind Does help uh for opposing defenses too. I don't mind the vikings as a spend down option at 36 I am okay With I like say quant a lot. I am okay with maybe Darius Layton I think that Danny Dimes is not out of consideration, but you know Uh, Daniel Jones can make mistakes. He's been much better this year, which is worth mentioning But they're good against the rush which may funnel the Giants to pass a bit more than usual Um, so I don't think the the vikings are totally out of play at 36. I'll have A non-zero number of bears lineups at 31 despite how Awful that feels I'll probably have falcons if Tyler Huntley plays. Yeah, there's gonna be a lot of gross stuff this week I think the panthers are viable to at 35 despite my love for a dj shark and jared golf Um, I think they're in play too. So I'm gonna spend down this week for sure. Um, okay I mentioned before that we needed a the interns to make us a song Oliver has already written us a song and tweeted it at me It's the tune of heart the herald angels sing my confidence in being able to sing that is low You got this So what I want to do is direct all of you all retweet of oliver's tweet Go there check out oliver's twitter It's a at probably oliver is his twitter account. He wrote us a song So oliver not our intern. I want to make that clear So we would pay our interns if we had interns Oliver did write up a song for us the tune of heart the herald angels sing. So oliver. Thank you. Um, I will retweet that for people who are desperate for our our song For players in bad weather Brandon any final thoughts for you? non-christmas song related before we go uh, send the good people off to finish their lives I do have a question. Is this not shark the herald angels sing? Oh Wow Oliver did make us a shark week graphic. So oliver not to put you to work. Um, But if we can get like a shark the herald angels sing Graphic again, not putting you to work oliver, but look oliver you did doing some great stuff But I gotta say but you dropped the ball. I thought this was the shark the herald angels sing. I had Minus 10 000 on that's so good. Okay. Um, well, sorry. You can put to work. Um By brandon a sincere a sincere. Thank you I just I was taken aback to be clear. I did not put you to work oliver. This is all brandon If you don't have time that's cool. We still respect and love your work, but you know Putting it out there Shark the herald angels sing. Oh, that's right. Yeah. All right I mean you now have to go 100 dj shark as like a shark the herald angels sing narrative I look either way great song. I'm reading the I'm reading the lyrics now But maybe all we do maybe all we got to do is just change the first word to shark and then we're all set We get like dj shark with like angels wings or how to what could be least offensive in doing this? I don't know. Well, uh, actually oliver knows this. He knows how to do this stuff. I'm gonna leave it to him I trust him to do the right thing So at probably oliver on twitter to find that song again I'll retweet that at gymson is spreading any final thoughts for you before we close up shop for today A lot of different ways to go this week including quarterbacks at all ranges running backs At very high salaries. I don't think this is a week to consider Like value at running back just isn't quite there unless we get some breaking news by saturday um Just a lot of different ways to go and I absolutely love those slates Yes, I do too. Um, I love slates where I can justifiably Target studs and I have that this week So be reactive to changes with with injuries be reactive to Changes with weather spend time with your families. Um, if you can, um, you know do all that You can do it all once but have fun this weekend. Stay safe everybody. Happy holidays to you We are gonna be back with you once again next week. No recap show We will have a preview show once again next week for the week 17 and main slate get that and all of our shows by subscribing To the number fire daily fantasy podcasting wherever you get your podcast and while you're there if you like what you hear Leave us a rating interview as well branded if people have other christmas carols tweet at you or dj chart graphics potentially Where can they find you on twitter? I'm on twitter at kadoa 13 g d u l a 13 and I am on twitter at jim sauce g i m s a n n e s Good luck to all of you in week 16. Happy holidays. Stay safe. Stay warm. We'll talk to you once again next week This has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire