 We're going to make our way through the risk warning and then get started. Okay, so a bit of a sort of continuation of some of the themes that we've been having so far this year. It's obviously a U.S. holiday today, President's Day in the U.S. So that's sort of tempering the volumes a bit in today's training and not seeing any particularly outsized moves in the markets. A bit of a sort of turnaround that's been taking place in all prices. They were down a bit early on, they pulled back a bit. All prices definitely are a sort of ongoing theme and I think the bounce in all prices that we've seen looks like we are putting in a bit of a bottom there, at least in the interim. And that's been pretty supportive of the equity markets as well and it's I think a large part why we've seen a big turnaround in U.S. markets and saw them on Friday being new all-time highs in the U.S. SPX500 and then the U.S. 30 as we trade them on our platforms. And of course just what's been going on with Greece. Distinct risk from the events in Greece, if all things fall apart over there, there's definitely going to be ramifications but you wouldn't really believe there was much risk if you looked at the markets. Like I said, German DAX putting in new all-time highs, topping 11,000 for the first time last week. And even if you look at Greek specific markets, there's been a lot of volatility there but yields have come back down in the past few days in Greece and even the Greek banking stocks saw a big plunge but have sort of come back a lot from its first few days when we had a lot of volatility last week there was a day in which the ECB sort of pulled back one of the deals they had with Greece and that sunk the Greek bank stocks but they pulled back quite a lot since then. So I think that you can just generally round the whole situation off as a general assumption at the moment that some sort of agreement's going to become to that both parties don't want a collapse and a grexit or a Greece leave the Eurozone because it'd be just a mess they don't want to have to clear up so there is going to be some kind of compromise. That's part of the rally that we got going on Friday was that the German Finance Minister Schaarwald has been pretty sort of a stalwart throughout this. Pretty disturbing not to deal with Greece but Angela Merkel offered some sort of conciliatory words saying that she thought probably a compromise would be met and we've got the Eurogroup meeting taking place today. I think generally assumed that probably no absolute agreement's going to come out of this but I hope that maybe we're one step closer to finding some sort of solution before the deadline which is February 28th for when Greece have to renew their bailout scheme. So we're probably going to kind of chop around a little bit in the meantime and I think probably the best way to view this is until there is some sort of solution found it's just limiting the upside. I mean obviously there still seems to be upside in markets and I think the main driver of that is probably when I'm talking about upside I'm talking about stocks obviously. I think that's probably largely driven by the ECB quantitative easing program that kicked in next week. A lot of front running all that bond buying is going to be taking place. So let's look specifically at some of these markets here. As you can see on my screen you'll know if you've attended before but I basically switched up some of the major products that are available and some of the most liquid ones into watch lists. So obviously we've got indices, FX and commodities, we've got bonds there as well and some of these are more interesting. Definitely some of them are more actively traded amongst our client stocks so some of the big US tech companies and some of the more commonly traded FTSE 100 companies. I'm not going to go into details probably on the individual stocks unless there was some specific interest from any of you here but I'm going to dip into the indices here. Let's start with the UK 100. Not much to be said on the FTSE at the moment just because we're really just cramping into this 6900 level. We had a break of the RSI line but not much happened after that and we saw some distinct long wicks, candles around the sort of 6790 type area just below 6800 and so that definitely shows some sort of buying interest to post the RSI break which to me indicates a break higher seems a bit more likely than a break lower at the moment but keep in mind this 6900 is multi-year resistance and based on what's been happening in the last year and a half or so this would be a kind of longer term selling opportunity but of course these ranges have to break at some point and about 6950 is the all-time high in the FTSE 100 so we could well get a run at that especially if there is some kind of positive resolution to what's happening in Greece. Obviously that's not a direct benefit to the UK and so when you hear these different commentary out from politicians positive or negative on the euro then generally the just from Germany 30 or the euro will be more direct plays on that but nonetheless with Europe's the UK's biggest trading partner so I think the FTSE is definitely getting hampered by what's happening in Greece. So as you can see that's it. We're basically in this trading range and so if you feel so inclined there's opportunities down around 6750 for going along and there's opportunities around 6900 for selling of course they have to break at some point in time and based on this longer term level which I think we're all familiar with basically it is there's definitely distinct risk in buying but for the moment we're in that range so there's not much more to be said. If you're a longer term player you've definitely got to keep an eye on that level. In the short term you can buy yourself within that range I would say. If we go to the Germany 30 here now this was the 11,000 we were here on Friday obviously that was a very small range day we're generally being supported by this rising trend. We're nicely above the 21 day moving average so the trend very much up and if you believe this 11,000 is going to break then a logical buying opportunity would be around the sort of 6800 that would be a reasonable dip before rallying higher again obviously you've got that sort of 200 point on risk below down here some of the lowest risk opportunity would be for buying into this trend would be around the 10,600 but if we do get there I mean we certainly could and I think still even if we got there the tendency would be to assume an upside break but again this is a 11,000 is one of those big round numbers and as I mentioned last week when we first got there always probably as we were approaching it maybe was it let's see where were we last week I think last week we touched it and we'd come off and I was just saying we probably could get another run at it but it's still a big round number and so you know that's where we are we've had another run to it and we've had a little false break above close below so we've not managed to close really above that previous peak and that's why we're coming off a bit at the moment so yeah you know buying right at a big round number like 11,000 can be a bit of a risky prospect you tend to want a bit of a bigger dip and you know that's why we had this set off but it may turn out that's not enough we might see more selling interest up here we may need a dip down to perhaps this consolidation area which kind of fits in with this previous high about their amounts and maybe so that you know maybe the 21 days if you want to say in terms of moving averages or not maybe we need a 55 day pullback to generate enough buying interest to push us through 11,000 you can never say how much it's going to decline you can just have your orders in place and you know if you're aggressive you have your higher orders if you're not so aggressive you're down here that's literally all you can do obviously you can play the breakout but there is the risk of just another fake you know particularly at these big round numbers there is the risk of the fake outs if we do see a big break higher and then a close below it's counter trend but that could be a selling opportunity like a big determined false break this one I would argue is a pretty here neither here nor there a spinning top candlestick where you basically go nowhere and it doesn't tell you just tells you would take in a breath slip over to US markets I guess specifically if we're talking about some data that might influence the Germany 30 you know the reason we've been part of the reason we've been having a bounce in the Germany 30 is the upcoming QE but that doesn't explain why we've had a bounce in the Euro 2 and I think the two things that fit together are we've actually seen some slightly better Eurozone data coming out and perhaps that's not such a surprise because we're coming off a bit of a low base it's been pretty poor for a few months running you know you'd expect maybe a bit of an uptake at some point and obviously we've had low oil prices and the weakness of the Euro helping the export market within Europe you would expect that to assist and there are some signs of that we've got the German ZEW on tomorrow Tuesday and then on Friday we've got the PMIs specifically Germany's you'd want to watch and there's a bit more improvement expected there so that could be cause for further movement higher in the Germany 30 or the Euro if we can just okay let's keep things on equity markets at the moment so as not to confuse but I will certainly look at the Euro and just discuss why perhaps in the face of these Greek troubles etc and the face of QE why we get the bit without so I think it is the kind of economic data so yes looking at US markets again they're closed today and not in a whole lot of data this week from the US except importantly the FOMC minutes and they're coming out on Wednesday now basically you can see here that we're just in this in the top half of this changing of trading range you know this peak was only created at the end of December so it's not quite the same as the UK 100 where it's sort of multi-year resistance this was just the previous all-time high in US 30 obviously in a closing basis we made new highs last week based on sort of opening hours you'll just notice sometimes because we trade on the futures here or our prices are based on the futures I should say you know there's a bit of variation from what's quoted in the press so that's why you see slightly higher numbers here and our chart looks slightly different we're not like at new John highs in our charts you can see we're right in this area of the 18100 and again it's a matter of whether you know if you believe this trading range is going to persist then you know there's a selling opportunity there is perhaps some logic down here from the you know pull up in the RSI which is still below 60 so not necessarily an indication that we've broken out just yet probably what would happen is that if we actually did break up up in price you know you'd see RSI move above 60 so by then you know you're kind of chasing it a little bit so there's some indications here that we could be about to break out of this trading range that we've been in so if you believe the trend the trading range can persist you know it's definitely selling opportunities right in this area of 18 to 18100 so you know look for some short-term reversal patterns even daily candlestick reversal patterns should offer some opportunity to at least sell down to these moving averages and trendline broken trendline support which has been tested once keep in mind so you know limited scope but 17900 then down to 17700 possible if you see some kind of bigger reversal up here which I tend to think probably we would see something out of those highs again S&P the SPX500 looks very similar I'll quickly show you that but really the more interesting one and perhaps the indication that we are going to get a break is the SPX500 and you can see on our charts we did break above there we had that rising trendline support indicating there was gradually a bit more buying interest and we saw that break above here and you know once we got above that you know we were more than likely going to go and test the high which we've done and broken you know so looking good here we're bouncing off 60 so chance for pullback perhaps to the 50 perhaps backs and retesting the peak here before a move higher chance for that but really the interesting one I would say is this the old NASDAQ here which has broken out of a flag and just I would say based on this technical pattern minimal objective is 4525 but we are at 14-year highs here you know a lot of this is just thanks to Apple just absolutely smashing it but you can see if we go way back only just about fits in our charts there we go don't know what's going on there doing something a bit strange on my screen but you can see that candlestick, that tall wick is right up in that 4821 is there about the previous old online in NASDAQ so we've got a plenty of room to run until that so 4525 perhaps fairly obtainable and you can see on this monthly chart a big old engulfing candlestick there so chance for pullback from that at the end of the month but you know looking fairly positive in the NASDAQ and that may pull the S&P and Dow Jones forward with it so again that would be if that's a flagpole we're looking way up there towards the old time highs but just based on this kind of minimal objective of the height of the actual flag itself we'll be looking at 4525 4500 is the round number that might catch some selling interest okay I've got a quick question here about just looking at Tescos I mean I think there's a good chance we've put a bottom in Tescos you know that's not to say it's not going to bounce around a good amount in the meantime we've had a good bounce higher so this 250 is a big round number 242 is kind of how I've drawn it in my charts but yeah I mean you know that's not far off a sort of double bottom pattern which essentially has reached its objective around here so chance for a bigger pullback but I think you know the news flow is not so horrific from the supermarkets I mean we had more news today that Morrison's as today cut its prices on core products for as much as 50% so it's quite a crazy price war going on and I think you've got to kind of assume that some of these companies are just not going to be as profitable as they once were because they're cutting into their margins so much but probably enough reason for some upside is that they're slowing you know they've seen sales growth as a result of cutting prices and even though they're still losing market share to the likes of Audi and Lidl that the growth in market share from Audi and Lidl you would assume would probably slow down as the big supermarkets cut their prices closer to Audi and Lidl which is obviously the main advantage to going there is the lower prices so then if that market share slow down can happen I think that's a good sort of general headwind for the sector so not to say we can't dip in the short term but I think the we're up and above the 200 day moving average as of last week in Tescos could still offer a bit of resistance technically you know so I think one way to look at it might be if you are feeling positive towards Tescos you no need to buy right at the highs but you know if we do get a dip down to say about 200 again that would be a round number that might attract a lot of sort of institutional type buying and that would be something to look into you don't have to buy right at the level it would look for a bit of confirmation back about 210 again, something like that you know that for a longer term investment could be of interest okay, away from share markets then we did briefly mention we did mention the Euro so let's jump to that I think this probably would have caught a few people off guard with the Euro of late just because in the face of all that's happening in Greece and the prospects of QE you would think and you know all you probably hear on there in the financial media is that Euro just has to go down and down maybe that is the case longer term but you know you can't go straight down and we've seen some better economic data the market was heavily oversold and so there is a bit of cause for some upside here this color that I've got on my chart is this kind of declining type flag situation so if you're going off this you would think that we could drop down to sort of this 103 type mark flag doesn't suggest parity but it turns out how long we'd take to get down to the bottom of the flag could be just about parity by the time we get there if the price decline slows a little bit so that's a general longer term objective to keep in mind but you know you've got our deep pockets to be selling right now that in mind because it may bounce a good amount in the short term and we saw quite a sharp reversal the week before last but then last week we still managed to bounce in the face of that so that is a sort of hanging man type pattern it's not really at the top of the market but it's just at the top of the small bounce and that's typically a bearish pattern but you saw upside after it and that's a strong sign on the weekly chart you can see where we are we basically just held on to this 1270 pretty strongly so I think if that gives way probably heading down to lows and probably breaking them that's been this sort of new line in the sand is that 1270 certainly drops down to there I think or opportunities but you know we have tested it a few times and now we're up and above the 21 day and there's a good chance we're up towards the 55 which would correspond to about a 50% probably of this big decline that we had if we just draw that on you can see the 50% retracement is right on the top of this kind of trading range here and then I had this level up here which is the 120 round figure I believe we're just above it and that's the 61.8% so potential there the trend is probably still down we're still talking lower low sort of a higher low here not really but you know if we are able to make a high high then you probably could call that a low and then that would be more of a kind of logical sign of a reversal so probably can start getting a bit more confident in that move once we break this 1545, 1550 sort of previous peak basically from the beginning of FED and I think like I was saying the main catalyst for that would just be some ongoing better data the German confidence data has been improving for a while so risk of a disappointment but I think you're on an individual month but I think overall the kind of trend is for improving confidence and one of the big reasons for the collapse in business confidence was the situation in Ukraine obviously we've had a new ceasefire signed there so that won't really be in time for this month's figure but bear it in mind for next month we could see a big leap in business confidence if there is some sort of confidence this ceasefire can take hold and again there's PMIs on Friday could be big catalysts for a jump in the euro obviously there's that US dollar end to the equation so that's worth bearing in mind and we'll do up the FOMC minutes I'll pull up the dolly end chart because that had an interesting move on Friday was it Friday? No, it was actually Thursday we had this big bearish engulfing candlestick right around just ahead of this one 2017 it was these previous peaks now that's a big bearish at a previous resistance a bearish engulfing candlestick like that generally a pretty good bearish sign and just finding a bit of support on the 21-day moving average so I think moving back into that candlestick somewhere ahead of the 120 if you believe in the strength of that pattern it's potentially a selling opportunity at least down towards the bottom of the range then we're talking 400 of pips if we're that to come together but that's obviously based on the US dollar strength situation so what could bear that out? we had the Bank of Japan data overnight but I really do think the dollar is the bigger driver at the moment I don't think the Bank of Japan are moving again to ease policy we do have the Bank of Japan meeting this week so the risk that they do sort of apply and match the European Central Bank almost by uping the amount of QE that they do I don't think that's particularly likely they're probably going to hold steady the amount of QE that they're currently doing that kind of takes the yen out of the equation a little bit and leaves it to the dollar in the FOMC minutes the last statement from the Fed was pretty bullish so then probably the statement's going to confirm that the only thing that I think would maybe be a bit surprising to that kind of overall bullish sentiment is in the statement they mentioned international concerns or something to that effect there's a bit more emphasis on all the way what's happening in the likes of Greece and China and things could impact the US economy and particularly if they do mention the US dollar the strength of the US dollar as a concern that would be an indication that maybe they're going to hold back on a rate hike because of those concerns outside the US and that could be a dull negative scenario and a positive so a negative dollar yen positive pound dollar euro dollar obviously the pound has its own event risk this week probably most of the data is going to UK centric this week which is just the UK unemployment and the Bank of England minutes now we've technically kind of reversed this trend we've pushed above 55 day moving average but that's kind of the last thing that's happened a basing pattern there was something along the lines for triple bottom slash reverse head and shoulders a kind of shallow one with a new high made here then a new higher low so looking quite strong here chances of a pullback perhaps to 5270 which is a kind of longer term level that I had on the chart but looking quite solid in the pound perhaps some resistance in the head but still that's a few hundred pips away so with the Bank of England we just had the inflation report last week they were sort of I think fairly neutral but the market consensus was the Bank of England were a bit more hawkish because they raised their growth outlook for the UK economy and just said that the inflation could dip even to deflation on the headlight number but they just said well it's because of all prices and our projections are still that we're going to hit the 2% inflation target in the sort of medium to longer term so that was interpreted as well we may see some sort of interim dip in inflation and they did even allude to the possibility of cutting rates further even from 0.5% and even starting up QE again if the deflation became a bit more embedded so that's kind of interesting that they would even consider that but overall I think deemed a bit hawkish based on the low growth forecast and that that I think is the kind of underlying theme for the pound is that we've got a bit more of a kind of hawkish Bank of England who are viewing this oil price effect on inflation as transitory and so that's you know I think that's any data that I think when you once you establish a sort of a trend or a logic then you're just looking for data almost that goes counter to it so if we see some kind of data that is sort of weak economic data for the pound for the UK that in the context of that latest inflation report is a is potentially a buying opportunity so see what these minutes have to say. They may elaborate on some factors that were a bit more dovish on the economy but I think overall we're looking at a potential reversal there. I think that's the kind of main or what I guess one quick side issue is that people mind the kind of margins are a bit higher these days on the Swiss pairs but we do have the chairman of the Swiss National Bank Thomas Jordan speaking on Wednesday so the craziest chart and offer is obviously the Euro-Swiss there is some rumour that actually the Swiss National Bank had been buying into this creating a bit of this kind of demand here and you can see a bit perverse to be doing any technical analysis but that kind of initial bounce back we had on the day is kind of capping prices at the moment so I think probably a catalyst whether we head back into that range or break higher will probably be what Jordan has to say on Wednesday sorry that's actually tomorrow at five o'clock that's a buy-to-buy probably not going to be too much said there but who knows after that removal of the peg and shock the whole market they could reintroduce it and anything could happen there so it's worth watching we'll have a live on Tuesday tomorrow quickly jump over to the commodity side of things so here's Brent Brent's looking a bit more constructive than WTI arguably we're basically 60 has been I would say is the big psychological level that we've overcome as of Friday and that's kind of changed the dynamic here so we've made kind of highlights on that base there and we kind of started stalling out a bit at 60 but as of Friday and today we've pushed beyond 60 and beyond the 55 day moving average so I think there's some scope for a bit of a run higher here some short covering possibly up to 70 and then I think us really crashing down and making new lows seems less likely at this point based on the other recent price action obviously it's a really steep down trend would you a bigger correction so whether around 70 perhaps people take the long view and think well that's enough now it's a good opportunity to sell into this ongoing supply-demand issue that's possible but I think in the meantime we're probably going to push up towards it and it's going to be the fluctuations to date and I think it's probably going to continue basically being around the inventory numbers that come out every Wednesday and the US rig count that comes out on the Friday inventories have been going higher and higher showing there's more and more supply more oil has been created than is being demanded in the US so that's the inventory numbers picking up but the number of rigs digging all out of the ground is coming down so we've got two conflicting pieces of data the markets are kind of following the rig count at the moment and then every now and then we have reports from the IEA and OPEC and the likes that put their forecasts in about supply and demand for oil globally so those are things to watch out for as well when they're on the economic dog there's none of that this week though to my knowledge the goal has been fairly confusing so I had the kind of a bearish sorry inverse head and shoulders pattern there we've come back we've tested that neckline essentially and that's what we're moving off at the moment that corresponded with a 50% fallback the runoff here is not being to me it also corresponded with this bump off the 40 RSI so technically sound but I think we definitely need to push through this little consolidation area to be feeling a lot better about this I think there's a good chance that somewhere before this peak probably we're going to drop an head down to the 1,200 again we may not but gold does tend to react quite a lot of these 61.8% retracement I thought am I going to prove my own I didn't double check this before but there you can see there that's where we're bouncing off at the moment is also the 61.8% so we had a confluence of fib levels and the trend line so a lot of support there certainly plenty of justification for buying around this level but the reaction has been a bit tepid probably gold is always a bit tepid going into normally going into the jobs numbers and the Fed minutes and Fed statement it's always a bit sideways in gold and so that may be the reason that people have not been so heavily buying into it but yeah and we're below all the moving averages we're sort of trending down here in the short term at least but is that in the context of a kind of just wider range uptrend potentially so one of the less obvious markets to play at the moment you can see also if we did get another duck down to here that would be this rising trend line so here and a drop down to 1-2 under potentially buying opportunities but you know there's not to say we certainly couldn't just roll completely over following this recent trend down we're overrunning a tad here but I will just quickly have a look at copper because I think that's potentially interesting here this is something I've written a full report on some of the news analysis section of the website also did the video snapshot on this last Thursday just talking about the potential of a bottom in copper here particularly after some of the recent policy announcements from the People's Bank of China that have been basically loosening monetary policy a bit recently and that potentially could stimulate the Chinese economy and push up physical demand for copper in the industry over there so some kind of sharp bounces off this 245 and we've made it above this previous peak but not a close above and this peak over here that's kind of where we're bouncing off so charts are a deeper pullback really what we need is a move beyond this 266 to call this a do you discount that spike arguably a inverse head and shoulders or just a double bottom perhaps from those two but certainly some sort of not certainly but potentially some sort of reversal pattern should we get a move beyond that could push us right up to this 295 of 300 type of tendency which is on the long term you know as long term as the 50% level okay I don't see any other questions at this point so thank you very much for attending all I've got to be trading this week I hope that was of some use you know and for market updates throughout the you know throughout the day throughout the week certainly feel free to check us out on Twitter I'm Jay Lawler underscore CMC at Twitter and then we've got Emma Houston underscore CMC at Twitter as well thanks a lot everyone thanks for joining good luck Jasper Lawler signing out