 Okay, so a very good morning to you. It is Friday the 18th of October I hope everyone is doing good and ready for the session ahead and certainly still a very much of a Brexit focus given the Rollercoaster price activity we had yesterday. Obviously particularly interesting having had a deal Brokered between Boris Johnson his team and the EU Seeing a significant rally in the pound only then to come crashing back down a few hours later Actually, let's just jump straight to the pound and have a look where we are at the moment against the dollar and cable And that was the kind of extremity of the price movement we had yesterday So when the European morning started, we started to get some then quite early signals that perhaps A deal was going to get struck and then when that started to get come through and get confirmation officially from various different Journalists and and the spokespeople related to the event. We saw a really aggressive move to the upside got up to about 130 that kind of area And the way of which you know this kind of price action has been responding definitely in terms of targets when you see these bigger moves Very technical in terms of where they've been responding on the consulate areas of consolidation But then also targets on the ascent when we have moved higher and I got up to around that 130 looking on a daily chart 1415 kind of level does start to encapsulate a little bit of the price activity on the bottom end of the range through the The back end of Q1 Q2 of this year Before just pulling back and settling now where we are at the moment just below the 129 handle so net net I mean it's been such a Strong recovery for the pound of course. I mean if we put this on a 90-minute chart, you know where we were to where we are right now having traded really at the 122 handle having then tested and 130 and now sitting at the 129 which is just sub its pivot at the moment So all of this really my interpretation to make it most simple is that this is Not and again, it's not that a deal is gonna get done and Brexit solved and we're on the way now This is more about for me the elimination of no deal Getting priced out of the market and the interesting thing here Sam and I were looking at was that if you think about when Theresa May Left and then the market had this distinct repricing in of the Increased risk of a no deal because even though there were what five Candidates put forward for the leadership of the conservative party even from before the televised debates begun Everyone knew Boris Johnson was gonna win So the whole thing was just a bit of a waste of time quite frankly and that meant that Boris Johnson being of the more Extreme approach of do or die delivering no deal by the deadline meant that the market kind of reprised after Theresa left from about one 3131 type level all the way down to where we where we hit which was a multi-decade low Momentarily getting below the post initial e referendum low of 120 sterling against the dollar but what's been happening here and and definitely What has happened in the last week and a half or so is that a In the middle of September. Well, if I just highlight it here two real distinct phases here fundamentally One is when we got to this period of the middle of December That was when Parliament remember managed to pass through the bend bill which changed UK legislation meaning that really the prospect of Boris Johnson Facilitating a no deal is really not a credible threat now that hasn't stopped We know Boris saying that because the technicalities of the law is very complicated And you know the people in the public I would absolutely understand that you know the nuances of UK legislation is just too much of an undertaking and really quite frankly uninteresting and so Boris can continue the kind of message and tone if you like so one point though is that soon as that legislation came in well Basically for me the no deal probability dropped substantially and that's not just me That's what markets are thinking, you know the pound started to rally already at that point when confirmation of that law Got its royal assent then we had a period an episode of a bit of a pullback but then came this you know what we've had here, which is this phenomenal rally really and Interestingly, we've come all the way back up to pretty much where Theresa May left So if anything this this area of price movement that we've had which is you know no small thing We're talking about the best part of a ten point range But we're back to exactly where we were so for me this isn't you know this is more of a case of no deal now as it is eliminated because You know what happens now on Saturday is if Parliament back his deal Then we push on and then we go into this transition period to the end of 2020 And then the likelihood is this will be a multi-year discussion about its implementation or He asks for an extension we kick the can down the road So it's either delay or deal and definitely that's been the message as well of which Boris is trying to push Certainly now to that up the ante to put the pressure on Parliament because if Parliament blocks this You know, I think Boris Johnson has got an awesome hand to play now with the British public because you know if I was you know gearing up for an election if I was Thinking do you know what and then we're gonna look at it the Parliamentary arithmetic at the moment It's looking I would say on the balance unlikely his deal will pass through Parliament now if that is the case And I think Boris knows this I Would be absolutely talking up what's going on at the moment and we saw this yesterday This was one of the tweets that I did and I was talking to a few of the guys here about this Boris yesterday kind of late morning He did a string of tweets and I thought it was just so Incredibly telling for me of what his agenda is or his target and objective Because it was almost like I could have taken Donald Trump's tweets and overlaid an algorithm and just pumped out another tweet But just stuck Boris Johnson's Profile over it now that's because Everything he was talking about for me was nothing really to do about what the details and Brexit and so on it was all to do with gearing up for a general election Because I think he knows this deal isn't gonna go through so what's gonna be the strongest way to leverage the situation? Well as he delivered with Parliamentary officials last night when he said to them look it's either deal Or we have no deal we cannot delay again. So again heaping the pressure and his tweets I mean this was just This this was just a couple of words that came out of two tweets that he delivered take back control He said he said in two tweets five times Then he said NHS. We've got to tackle violent crime. We've got to think about the environment I mean give me a break think about the environment. I mean But this is it. I mean this is why I love tracking this stuff is because This is what I'm trying to do when I'm when I'm thinking about what's the political narrative and where do they want to go? And what could the potential outcome be to me this? Tells me this is a government Pretty sure that the deal will not go through and so therefore They're looking to now think several steps down the line about Cultivating sentiment around more support into a general election There's to me That's just absolutely as brazen as it comes with the type of language that they were adopting and the hashtags and so on so Yeah, it's gonna be interesting and obviously Saturday is the day because for really the first time in Many many years and only a few times in history recent modern history. In fact Parliamentary members are gonna sit and have a vote on a Saturday God forbid they'd need to work at the weekend, of course, but looking at here. This is the current composition of Parliament now the FT always do this really excellent look at what the current numbers are and what the current feeling is Between the people they've been talking to what MPs have been saying They have this quite good neat political model that they calculate the potential numbers So I'm gonna run through a few things and I'll keep this graphic visible So the FT suggests that unless the Prime Minister Can persuade the DUP to drop its opposition? Obviously something what we saw yesterday Or persuade several Labour MPs or independent parliamentarians to support the deal Mr. Johnson will struggle to win a House of Commons majority So this we know you know securing the deal with Brussels is one part getting it through Parliament a whole different ballgame Again, a la what we saw with Theresa May on multiple occasions now the FT estimates on a top level There are 321 MPs who could vote against the deal with 318 supporting it now in terms of the breakdown importantly out of the 287 Tory MPs So if you were looking at here conservatives at the bottom you got the blues But then you've also got the hard line you're a skeptic conservatives or the Spartans as they are Self-entitled so after 287 Tory MPs nearly all are expected to back the deal and that Importantly does include that you're a skeptic group of conservatives the Spartans that that kind of lead figure there Now that we smog has kind of morphed into the cabinet and what has happened now is Steve Barker has been the main guide to monitor in terms of the overall spokesman that represents that group of people and he's been very warm to backing the Prime Minister again The thought being that look if we don't take this deal, perhaps there could be never a deal And so better to just go with it now in that respect So that could be good for Boris in terms of accumulating numbers One one thing that the a Tory What was said by one of the Tory MPs was that over the next 40 hours I quote they one of them said There's gonna be some medieval whipping going on I thought I thought Christ if I said that outside of anyone talking about politics Just a normal conversation in the pub and you heard me saying there's gonna be some medieval whipping going on this weekend Yeah, you might think other things of course But the point being is that that phrase is very important the whipping process is absolutely key these are the people that really almost In a in a in a less Confrontational way force these MPs to back the government. This is a very normal process with British politics Now why this is important is because mr. Johnson the PM needs to win over 23 independent conservatives Now they're independent because Formatory MPs had their party whip removed and so basically they're ostracized by their own party And there's at least three of those that are very unlikely It's unlikely to back the government that being Dominic Grieve Gatto Beb and Justin Greening and so those three you can discount even though they are part of that political party The majority though are expected to support the agreement. So some of the numbers I've seen this morning could be as high as 15 of those independent conservatives Now without the DUP though importantly the Prime Minister's efforts are going to be partly focused on how many other Independent MPs he can capture and now a lot of these the predominant amount are Mainly former Labour parliamentarians that could be persuaded to back his deal Again the idea that they've been dissatisfied with the approach of Jeremy Corbyn, but also likewise Boris does have a deal And so if you wanted to deliver as per your Constituencies wish which may have been heavily leaning to vote to leave and that might still be the case Then ultimately do you want to vote with the government to just get this deal done? You know get Brexit Brexit going in that in that sense obviously National Party The Scottish National Party study five MPs the Lib Dems 19 They're all expected to go against the deal the Welsh parties for MPs the single green vote will set to reject it We know this of course The balance of power, you know one thing that definitely shifts this is the DUP because obviously they represent 10 and That would make life Incredibly more easier for Boris to get something but at the moment we know what they've said Latest comments this morning from one of their well the party spokesman Sammy Wilson He quoted this morning I will give you an absolute assurance that there will not be voting for this deal when it comes before the House of Commons Why should we and I also saw a tweet a journalist commenting from Dodds Nigel Dodds saying basically he's going to be talking to other conservative members Convincing them that they should not vote for the government's deal so all in all There's a few other things I can share with you later, but my feelings here is that the deal is not going to pass which means and The government spokesperson has already said a few days ago that Boris will abide by the Ben law Which means they'll have to write a letter then to Brussels at the end of Saturday if this meeting does indeed Or the vote yes tomorrow conclude with a vote against the government's deal and then that means Essentially the whole thing rolls over but for me that is the beginning of the next phase of where we're at at the moment Which is then what are going to have to be the dominoes to fall in order to get to the point of a general election Which I still at this point see happening Timing is obviously key is to try and ascertain when that might be But I still think that the end medium term outcome here is a general election and I do think that Boris Has the ability to come out in a very favorable position all things being equals It stands today given the way he's positioned himself as I said the tone of the tweets He was doing yesterday forget the tweets just going ahead check out the comments that people were saying on his tweets I mean I saying to Sam one guy was comparing Boris Johnson to Winston Churchill That's how much love there is at the moment for Boris following this simplistic message of Just delivering Brexit which I think is a stroke of genius by Cummings It worked in 2016 and I think there is absolutely even more potential for it to be even more powerful this time around if they were a general election so I think it's all going as You know being a few bumps obviously in the road, but the way of which those Strategists have been planning Right enough Brexit Let's move on Let's talk about something else Let's talk about China There's some Chinese data overnight and one thing I just wanted to touch upon We talk about the pound and this kind of obsession with Brexit at the moment It is obviously a lot of other things going on. I mean this morning the market sentiment is pretty flat I mean overall the economic calendar is pretty bare today apart from a whole slew of speakers speaking predominantly from this IMF event But everything's pretty flat On a macro top level obviously we had this partial trade deal between US and China this time last week, but interestingly, you know, if you kind of remove yourself out of that that story Think about what we've had this week We've had US retail sales the worst since February we had industrial production in the US declined sharply yesterday for the month of September We've had Chinese GDP come out overnight weakest growth in 27 and a half years six percent Point one weekend expected that the German government come out yesterday revised their economic growth forecast from next year to one percent from One point one point five percent We are not sure at the moment, you know removing yourself out a lot of these Kind of short-term episodes of volatility that we're seeing the bigger picture here is this economy the global economy is Continuing to weaken at this point now. We know the Fed are gonna cut in October but you know, what's interesting here is that it almost feels like we are continuing to just Grind lower at the moment and it doesn't it feels like This is going largely a little bit unnoticed because the distractions that are coming elsewhere But I think the Fed is actually gonna be particularly interesting at the end of the month not but just because We believe that they're gonna cut interest rates again But I definitely want to get a bit more of a feel for their assessment about what do they feel about these current developments I've just said what do they think about the forward-looking future? I mean there are as I said a number of Fed speakers speaking today and while I'm on that topic Let me just bring it across so you can just see what I'm talking about So here they are You've got Feds Kaplan Feds George Feds Kashkari Clarida You've got Fed officials debating the outlook for the crude market. You got Feds Kaplan again later on in the evening So yeah, lots of Fed speak. I am definitely interested in that But you know not just the Fed of course all the other countries as well Seemingly will have to turn to a more damaged stance. It was seen if we continue in this fashion. So it's a definitely almost You know without the distraction of some of the things like Brexit and the trade war The material weakness in the global economy still continues to be quite evident One thing to be aware of there with the Chinese data Investment growth did weak it was weaker than expected and that was kind of underlying then the the weakness in growth But industrial production did accelerate in September and retail sales was relatively steady. So Importantly with monitoring this Chinese data going forward. Are we getting to this point of bottoming out? It's going to be quite key going forward And partially, you know, hence the reason why you know, see the US have got their own domestic issues to manage The pressure on the farming industry to cut that agricultural deal on upfront purchasing of their goods from China But also to just keep that momentum behind the the placement of the stock market and the level of unemployment for Trump And then from China, of course, they too need to Be sure that they can counter at the fact that Q3 GDP growth is the weakest in almost three decades at the moment So, you know, they've got much also at risk at this point in time Okay, gonna quickly look at earnings just some other things to look out for today You do have before the open coca-cola American Express and Schlumberger There are other companies, but I'd say those are the three biggies to have a look out for If I quickly jump over to my earnings calendar here, I'll give you a snapshot So you've got all the numbers if it's a bit small. I'll put it in the chat room Timings wise you've got coca-cola 1155 Schlumberger is at 12 amex is at 12 30 In terms of EPS coke expected 62 amex two dollars and three And Schlumberger is spettered at 35 cents earnings per share On the calendar then as I said very quiet now in terms of data In fact, there is really nothing coming out today So all the more reason why the market will probably draw attention from the speaker slate the Brexit developments because don't forget that EU Council summit is in day two, so they are meeting entirely throughout the day I guess thinking out of the box Europe either play hardball and they start saying actually there is no extension So you have to get this deal done now parliament So they could do the pressure that way or the alternative could be they come back you know, what if they say just to Give Boris another little help me a little bit of help to get it over the line another type or form of concession I see that's highly unlikely that could help then appease some of these other members that is truly is it a deal worth voting for But I think that's that's not going to be the case So definitely be aware a lot of people speaking These are all though in the afternoon the council summit is going on Throughout the day, but the IMF meeting is happening in the States So it's going to be hence the reason why the mostly speakers are a scheduled London time into the afternoon All right, that's it from me Final thing I want to say If you go on our YouTube channel I was looking at our YouTube channel the other day on the analytics And I do know that a lot of the people at least a third who watch these briefings are not subscribed to our channel So if I can ask you to subscribe to the channel, that'd be great And one thing to reiterate is that you know take one of the videos here People ask me questions. I will always reply to them And so on so that's what we're here to do So feel free if you ever have any questions just to put them on the videos If you haven't seen it last week this time last week. I did a really excellent video Or like an interview so it's not me talking about markets It's me talking to peers our head of trading and it was all about lessons. He learned from his biggest loss I've had a lot of good feedback on that video people found it incredibly useful. So if you do get It's only 20 minutes over the weekend definitely worth a watch All right, that's it. Let me hand you over to sam and have a good session and a great weekend. Thanks guys Hi guys Let's clear my my throat there. We'll have a quick look over to begin with I guess with the pound You can see some levels here marked up on the on the old daily chart and up to Test just remove that rectangle there You can see some of the levels we had back in may before we broke down It pretty much to the tick of course predicting exactly where we were going to stop yesterday with have been pretty tricky However, let's have a look more At today's price section We're just having to go at trying to get above the pivot 129 in the mix there as well You've also got the high that we had back on Wednesday. I quite like the look here of this trend On the market as it comes through Yeah, something like this and it while it might actually start from the lower the 14th You can see just over the last few trading days, of course, these lows are getting higher. We're getting squeezed to the top Yes, the fundamentals are at play, but we haven't had a break below it. So if we were Um heading into the weekend, you know, do people want to stay long over the weekend? Especially if this idea of this deal not going to be passed through parliament Then we've got a you would say come back lower and then obviously you've got some really key areas of support to be aware of from each day as well and obviously the breakthrough that we had On the 11th so this time last week as well. So some key levels to the downside that would be keeping an eye on I don't personally think it's really worth the risk of holding a new trade over the weekend. Obviously if you're heavily long The risking I think would be the right thing to do Just having a look as well to the upside you can see if we can get above the the high from Birthday Wednesday as well. They're just the levels from yesterday evening And then up towards 130 again could be in play the euro yesterday helping It's move higher thanks to the idea that this deal Is getting closer to being agreed across the board. However, just drifting down overnight But relatively flat a couple of areas to be aware of this of course with the euro just be any of these previous highs I would say Worth keeping an eye on just have a look is that there you go. This is quite nice here Just spotting this here the high of Wednesday the low afternoon and then we're just respecting that now So a little line in the sand Perhaps we'll be at diagonally to keep an eye on going forward And then we would just be looking at any of the previous lows and highs from Yesterday day before and and so on that I'll be looking for As well to find some support much like we had Yesterday you can see where we broke through the higher the 11th came back and Really this sort of time yesterday before that push to the upside probably worth having a look as well At these most recent highs have we got a trend? you can see Pretty good one two three. So yeah market looking that on the 15 minutes So again break of that to the upside could be a half decent opportunity having to look over at the the s&p obviously The volume is really going to be in the afternoon But the DAX is actually leading the way here and so you would expect looking pretty similar in price section from this morning and as well This get these trend lines on that could well be another third test coming in just before that pivot point As well. What has been a really key? We'll call it a zone of support previous resistance You've got the the highs from the 15th morning and the 14th morning that coming in And then matching up with the lows that we had from Wednesday and Thursday as a zone 82 29 82 to 85 would be a key level I'll be keeping a close watch on as we go into the back end of the week And then of course if that was to come into play We'd expect some decent support to come in and if that was one to break then I would say Not out the question to get a finished lower into Round sort of 29 77 73 However stocks at the moment, you know, it's not kid ourselves We are still pretty high overall to send a quick look flash over the daily chart still not far from those all-time highs Can we get above this trend line then be looking at highs from yesterday? Obviously the round number the 3000 will be one to to keep a close watch on As well quick look over at what that tax is doing and how this could drag the s&p Higher I would say your key zone is the higher of the day. We've had some nice price action Yes, they won two three before that break down into the afternoon We then hit it on the retest this morning in the early hours during the asian trade So we're keeping a watch what happens around 12,666 Spooky number pivot as well looks pretty key price action from yesterday. So they're matching up quite nicely So I keep keeping a watch on that have a quick look over some of the commodities gold to begin with pivot Just acting as resistance. I'll tell you what gold's been a fantastic market It has to be said to to trade recently really nice. I mean look at this break of the low comes back retest resistance I mean that magic 1492, which you know, I like I mean what a market look at how good that's resistance up at the top has been lovely range great break equities pushing higher Well, what an opportunity bit annoyed. I missed that But yeah, you can see here it and what we've what I've said the last few Briefings, I'm just not sure on the overall direction of gold to be honest medium term I mean obviously at the moment if we can break through 1491 some nice price action over the last couple of days then why can't we then drift down to towards the s1 But certainly medium term I'm not too sure. I'm not too sure. You're going to argue there's some dollar weakness to boost it Then you've got equities going higher Sort of there perhaps in a bit of a consolidation period where it doesn't necessarily know Which what what it wants to do and if we squeeze this out It might be worth even having a look at How squeezed are we getting in nice trend line here starting on the first that we know about we had the false break on the 16th and Potentially for the upside you're going to want to see a real big pushing A confirmed break above 1500 to the upside there as well One to keep an eye on any way and also from the highs if we were to get back above the pivot You know, I'll be looking to have some of these trends on as well But really nice market the way it's been moving I have to say over the last couple of weeks Oil having a little go at trying to push above 54 dollars on the futures and you can see here we Broke out the range that have been holding just so firm Since what's the 14th say that be Wednesday Thursday Wednesday Tuesday Monday afternoon really nice area again for oil which Looks like it's been trading nicely this morning breakthrough I'll be looking at the pivot as obviously is a key point. I mean the high that we had back on The 15th has been tested to the tick and I'm sure some people are in that for a long I think obviously if it was to come back down again Maybe on the third test you would prefer to wait a bit lower down and the pivot area could be that point But like or like gold has been behaving quite nicely It has to be said even yesterday post do ease if we have a quick look at What was the higher the day you get the breakthrough come back retest? You know, you're offside for two ticks. I think you can take that before a really nice move To the upside just above where we're trading. We're kind of now on the break point where we broke lower early trade this morning Around 5408 we're knocking on the door there a bit of a mini range between 84 to the downside And then 08 I'd be interested to see if we can get a break above there to target the overnight and yesterday's Hi as usual any questions, please do let us know If not, though, I hope you have a good trading day and an even better weekend