 Welcome traders to Tickmill weekly market outlook for week commencing the 2nd of November with me, Patrick Wonderley. In the US, the data calendar is extremely heavy next week and the usually important FIMC meeting and US labor market report will really play second fiddle to the presidential election on Tuesday. The market seems to be positioned for a blue wave scenario which would translate into a weaker US dollar due to the mix of expectations of larger US fiscal stimulus which would benefit cyclical effects, subsequent confirmation of the low real rates for longer as the Fed would stay behind the curve, as well as the anticipated return to rules based system for international relations that's benefiting the safe haven dollar much less. All this should be positive for risk assets and higher beta G10 currencies but way on the dollar. G risks obviously are a delayed or contested election results, both of which would lead to heightened volatility and much broader ranges than usual and both of which for the dollar index and other G10 crosses. In terms of the delayed election result scenario, the three swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin don't start counting postal ballots until the election day so there could be delays. However, if some big states such as Florida or Texas show Biden's victory, the picture will get clearer much earlier. Data wise, the FOMC should retain a dovish bias on Thursday, being ready to do more should it be necessary. While Friday's US jobs report is likely to show a further loss of momentum but what is normally the key US data points will probably be background noise for next week. Dollar index continues to trade within the range that we've been looking at over the past several weeks so whilst we hold this 92.30 area, we're now up into range resistance coming in at the 94 handle. As this range continues to contain price action, this would favor a downside break to challenge the ideal fifth wave projected low at the 90 handle. However, if due to the election or outcome scenario is being less clear, the dollar breaks higher, look for a test of 94.76 on route to an equality objective at 95.42. In terms of the Euro dollar, after the strongly dovish ECB meeting last week, negative implications for the Euro, the Euro USD price action for next week will be about the US factors, with the results of the US presidential election being the key driving factor. It seems at this point as the blue wave outcome is likely to be positive for the Euro dollar largely due to its negative impact on the dollar and should push the pair higher again. Whilst positive for the Euro dollar, the Euro should nonetheless lag most of its G10 peers. On the domestic Euro's end front, it's a very quiet week with September retail sales on Thursday, expecting to have a negative impact on the Euro. Rather more focused will be on the evolution of the Covid situation in Europe and the impact of rising restrictive measures on growth outlook. Still, the ECB already pre-committed to act in December and are not ruling out using all available instruments. The other bad news is now priced into the Euro. That's also why a market-friendly result for the US presidential election could be a positive catalyst for the Euro. From the current price action, as we hold 1.1884 as resistance, we now have a quality objective to the downside at 1.1479, just below that 1.15 support area that we talked about in last week's live market analysis session. So, holding below 1.18, look for a test of this 1.15 before basing to set another move to retest and potentially overcome the 1.20 barrier. In the UK, Stirling's benefits and should continue benefiting from the potential prospects of a UK-EU trade deal. Period of negative headline news and season, although there have been no official reports, the news flow suggests that progress is being made towards a deal around November 2nd to half of November. The overriding points of this domestic driver has kept Stirling fairly immune from global factors. On the domestic front, the focus will be on the Bank of England meeting, a further monetary stimulus looks inevitable, and markets expect the increase in quantitative easing of around £100 billion. As for the issue of negative interest rates, the BOE should refrain from it, pointing to the ongoing review of its effectiveness and its impact on banking sector profitability. At this point, the odds of a negative rate are being tied up with the UK-EU trade negotiation outcome. As the BOE should keep interest rates unchanged, the QA expectation is widely expected, its impact should be relatively shallow on Stirling. However, news this weekend that England is returning to national restrictive measures for one month from Thursday was likely to weigh on Stirling at the beginning of the week. From a technical perspective, Stirling was holding this interim channel support at 1.2080. Looking at the potential for a week opening, I anticipate that that will give way, and we should see a test at a minimum of the 1.2740, 1.2750 area. A failure to find bids here would actually see us trade lower to the equality objective at 1.2376 before potentially stabilizing. So a couple of key areas to pay attention to at the beginning of the week for Stirling. In terms of the Yen, it looks set to be a key beneficiary of any surprise result from Tuesday's election. The recent uptick in the Yen implied volatility around the election day tenor is a sign traders have started to feel less relaxed around the vote and the perceived probability of alternative scenarios to the market friendly blue wave appears to have risen. However, the market's pricing appears still heavily tilted towards a Biden win. And if the polls are not to be trusted, then the balance of risks for the Yen is surely tilted to the upside next week. One factor to surely take into consideration is the possibility of delays in the results. We may not get clarity about a definitive winner until later in the week. Should this be the case, volatility and uncertainty may be shaking global markets. And the dollar Yen will find some good support before potentially falling later on a Biden win if that becomes the outcome. So from a technical perspective, as we head into the beginning of the week, we happen to be testing this ascending trend line support. Broke through, but quickly closed back through it again on Thursday. And another bullish reversal on Friday should see prices extend up now to test the descending trend line at 106. However, if we do fail below the 104, then look for a very quick retest of the prior loans down towards 101 before potentially stabilizing again. Last but not least in Australia, the 3rd of November is going to be a pivotal day for the Aussie dollar. The Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision will be released at 330 GMT on 3rd of November and is one of the most awaited in a long time. Economists consensus and market pricing are widely expecting a 15 basis point cut to the cash rate. Some market watchers agree and expect the RBA to adjust from a yield target of QE to a volume probably about $100 billion of Australian currency target and start buying longer dated bonds. Still, the RBA impact is set to be rather short lived and will soon be mixed up with the election results, which may start to take shape on the night of Tuesday, although more than one day may be needed before a clear winner emerges. While delays would likely keep the whole pro-cyclical FX based under pressure, Australian dollar may be a key outperformer in the case of a bowden landslides. This scenario is currently touted as most likely by the polls, but we'll have to see if they do deliver. From a technical perspective, as the Australian dollar trades below the pivot here at 72.43, we have an equality objective on the downside at 69.07. A failure to find support here would then open a move to test the 67 handle. However, if we do catch a bid at the 69 level, then we can reasonably expect that we will find a retest of the 72.43 for looking at a retest of price cycle up to 74. Obviously, the catalyst for that move would be a Biden clean sweep. So we are certainly in for an interesting and potentially wild week in terms of markets. Join me on Thursday, whilst the dust hopefully will have settled a little bit, when we can assess the emerging trends in the markets coming out of the back end of the election. That's 1pm GMT on Thursday for my live market analysis session. And that's all for now. Thanks very much and have a profitable week.