 Hello, welcome everyone to another International Relations Capsule for the Shankar IAS Academy. Today, we discuss the recent summit of the two most powerful men in the world, President Biden and President Xi. This happened last week, precisely 16th of November, and they spoke for 3.5 hours. Of course, the interpretation was not simultaneous, so the interpreters took half the time, but still they must have spoken for 2 hours and the atmosphere was reasonably good. What were the concerns of these two leaders when they decided to meet? It appears that it was President Biden who suggested it, and that too just a few days after President Xi was declared equivalent to Mao Zedong in Chinese history. Not only that, the possibility for his becoming President for life was made clear, and he was called the helmsman and the core leader of the Communist Party of China. So President Xi was at the height of his glory, while President Biden on the other hand had his rating very low. But the White House spokesperson said that President Biden was going to talk to President Xi from a position of strength, because he was building up his alliances in the last few months. So he was, according to the White House, he was feeling good about the kind of alliances that he had gathered in the last few months, and he was ready to meet the helmsman of China. So what is it that was achieved? In my view, there are two points very clear. China is seeking to be equal to the United States. It seems to have given up for the time being, winning over the United States was overtaking it, because repeatedly President Xi spoke about equality between the two superpowers. The second, they both seem to suggest that they both could control international affairs in the future. They kept saying that if we agree, we work together, we can make sure that the international situation remains stable. So in other words, a kind of G2, group of two, you know, we have what about group of 77, group of 20, group of five, et cetera, here, the emergence of a group of two. In other words, they are saying that they are the big powers, and it is their relationship which is going to keep a balance in the world. So these were the main trends that I saw in it, more than anything else. And also, one could say that what they settled was not for cold war, but for cold peace. Because both of them said that we don't want a cold war. But it was obvious that they were not going to have peace, peace itself, but some kind of an uncomfortable peace, but neither of them was wanting to go to war. Of course, we don't have any full account of what they talk to each other, but we have only tidbits from various conversations, various reports, various articles, et cetera. So a couple of quotes have come out from all this. Presidency is supposed to have said to President Biden that China and the US should respect each other, coexist in peace, pursue win-win cooperation, and manage domestic affairs well while shouldering international responsibilities. So there is not suggesting any kind of conflict, but cooperation, common responsibilities, and respect each other. President Biden, on the other hand, talked about our responsibility as leaders of China and the US. Again, more or less the same sentiment that the competition between our two countries should not veer into conflict, whether intended or unintended, just simple straightforward competition. And he asked for what he called guardrails so that any competition does not descend into any kind of conflict. Another point which came out was that President Xi questioned the claim of the United States hitting the democratic movements of the world. He questioned the ideology of democracy itself and explained that democracy is not mass-produced with a uniform model. So he said that democracy, no country can claim a patent for democracy. In other words, President Xi believes that his own rights has happened because of the will of the people and as much a democracy as anybody else. So these are the some fundamental points which have come out from various statements at various courts which we have received from the conference. But the main theme of the conference or both sides were trying out each other's position on Taiwan because recently a United States team of lawmakers visited Taiwan to discuss supply of new advanced arms and ammunition to Taiwan. So the problem is that the United States believes in one China policy like we do. In other words, Taiwan is theoretically part of China. But at the same time, United States says that Taiwan has the right to protect itself and it will not allow the situation of two units of China remaining as they are. No change should be brought about by unilateral action by China. So it was very clear from China's probing President Biden. He got the impression that if China were to attack Taiwan as something to believe it might, there would be definitely a reaction from the US. And that message, he got it clear. But at the same time, they did not go further into that. And that's why I said it is kind of cold peace. Both understood the dangers of confrontation. Both understood the value of maintaining the status quo as well as Taiwan and China are concerned. And therefore they measured each other and decided that there was nothing to be done at the moment. But China made it very clear that it has now become second most powerful in the country. And China expects that the United States will understand it and realize it. Of course, both of them agreed that there should be economic competition rather than trade wars. Cold war or trade war would be detrimental to both. Which of course is good news for the rest of the world because neither of them is thinking of war at this point. President Biden has a record of not having created any crisis or conflicts in the last 10 months that he has been president of the United States. And therefore, even in the case of North Korea, he has not taken an aggressive position. So on the whole, he has taken a peaceful face. And even when he talks about a different opinion with China, he doesn't think that there would be any kind of conflict. President Xi also wanted to cooperate with the US if it did not interfere in its internal affairs. President Biden is supposed to have raised the question of human rights in Hong Kong, which is now part of China. And also in Xinjiang province, which is within China, and President Xi naturally opposed such ideas. And he said it was a kind of interference in the domestic affairs and it will not be accepted. So there again, neither of them came to any understanding, but they understood each other very well. But what President Biden understood very clearly was the President Xi's statement that any interference with Taiwan will be playing with fire. These were the exact words he used. So he gave a very strong warning to the United States not to intervene in Taiwan under any pretext. So both sides have been very sensible, one can say, that this exchange did not result in any aggravation of the situation. In fact, one report that came out was that after the summit, the shares of arms manufacturers in the United States and China went down. In other words, people began calculating that there would be no war and therefore people were not willing to invest more in arms manufacturing. That's a good sign. Even a cold peace creates some kind of good feeling. So on the one hand, President Biden had strengthened his alliances, Quad is there, AUKUS is there. So he spoke from a feeling of strength and warning to China that he was now fully prepared to meet in a challenge. At the same time, he did not want to go into that. So the quality is that they spoke about and it is the idea of both of them keeping the peace and keeping the balance in international affairs by their behavior. So they accepted that responsibility, not because anybody is asking them to do so. But between them and the world, of course, is looking at it with some second sense of realism because there is no third country which wants to interfere in these affairs. So as the world's largest economies and permanent members of the Security Council of the Yuan, China and the United States should build, cooperate through better communication is what President Xi asked for, better communication that is what President Xi wanted. And the guard rails, which is President Biden wanted and both these are fairly reasonable and a sound and steady US-China relationship needed for safeguarding peaceful and stable international environment. So even though on the question of Taiwan, there were some strong exchanges of words, perhaps, and also on domestic affairs, human rights etc., there are also strong words. But both of them did not indicate there was going to be a worsening of the relationship between the two countries. So China sees Taiwan as a breakaway province to be reunited with the mainland and on the United States, on the other hand, as a one China policy and therefore cannot claim that Taiwan should be allowed to be independent. So reunification is a desire of all Chinese according to President Xi, but this did not descend into a kind of arguments, I don't know what kind of words they used, but what came out of it was a kind of reasonable acceptance of each other's position. On trade matters, there are very serious issues, but they don't seem to have discussed trade because President Biden had said recently that he was not looking for trade agreements and arrangements for a little time. So maybe they did not discuss it, but apparently President Biden talked about the promise that Chinese have made about importing more American goods because there is a big trade imbalance between China and the United States. But Xi did not protest that, she did not say that they will not import, but at the same time he warned that using the excuse of national security, Chinese companies should not be oppressed. He was probably referring to the arrest of the Huawei leader's daughter who was arrested and kept in Canadian jails for several months. So he considered that as a kind of national security being used in order to suppress Chinese companies and that was also fairly reasonable request. So whether China will import more Chinese goods, it is yet to be seen. So on the whole, this visit was, this conversation was much more reasonable and much more polite than the last meeting of senior officials, including the Secretary of State in Alaska, where the Chinese and the Americans appeared to be on the brink of conflict. They were using strong language against each other and there was no kind of understanding of any of the issues. So in that sense, in the last few months, both seemed to have stepped back from conflict. In the brink of a conflict, they seemed to have stepped back, understood each other's position and deciding to cooperate and not confront each other, not to create war situations. But assuming that both of them have become the leaders of the world and have a heavy responsibility in keeping the peace in the world. And for China, the most satisfying thing is that President Biden treated him as an equal. And he apparently made a request for the conversation and not China. So all this indicate that what we have, we can expect is as I called a cold peace. Nothing very extraordinary about cooperation, but at the same time, not going to a trade war or a cold war. Of course, we would like to know whether the word India came up in these conversations. We have no indication of that. President Biden asked him what President Xi wanted to do in the dark. Maybe not. We don't think they wanted to bring in any other country. But as they say, India was the elephant in the room in a sense, because both of them were very conscious of India's position. India is more or less tied up with the United States for its security. And that would mean India not being particularly friendly to China and they would make their demands. And therefore, when they spoke about peace, security, war, conflict, etc., I'm sure both of them had in mind also the situation of India. So from India perspective, India's perspective also, we can feel comfortable that they are not going to launch into any kind of conflict. And all of us would be allowed to continue peacefully after the pandemic. Because pandemic is a big issue and what kind of trade relationship would be developed between the two countries. And in fact, when the pandemic end are all big questions. But for the time being, the post-COVID, we can't say post-COVID yet. But as we are tapering into a post-COVID world, the signals that have come from United States and China are hopeful. That's all that we can say about the summit. It was a reasonable discussion. They exchanged ideas. They go to know each other better. And they realized also that there was no point in any kind of conflict. But at the same time, they stuck to their positions, particularly on Taiwan, Hong Kong and Xinjiang and so on. So no spectacular successes, but certainly a sense of comfort for the world. Thank you. Russia seems to have given up that dominant role long ago with the collapse of the Soviet Union. So the Chinese leaders keep reminding their people about Russia. They said, we should not make the mistake that Soviet Union made. Because that is something that rings in their ears because both of them have followed the same kind of route to communism. And suddenly a superpower, a recommended superpower collapsed and disappeared, collapsed and disappears. So the Chinese must have been studying whatever was done in the Soviet Union. And they do speak about it also occasionally as a kind of model that they should not follow. So Russia has no reason to feel offended by the Chinese position. And in fact, President Biden seems to worry more about President Putin rather than about President Xi. Because of the possibility of tension in Europe, there are talks about Russia invading Ukraine and things like that. And also Russia has been developing its nuclear weapons. And suddenly China is also expanding its nuclear armaments, some of the reports say. So Russia is not a player anymore. In this G2, we cannot aspire to be a G3. And so Russia will be as comfortable as the rest of us in cooperation between these two powers. You're asking me. I wish I knew. They did not resolve with themselves. Sorry, the United States and China did not resolve it. They cannot resolve it because of the fundamental difference. China believes that that is a fact too. China believes that it's a breakaway land from mainland and should be united. But just as they have accepted separate status for Hong Kong, what they are thinking of would be that. Final solution would be Taiwan will remain an independent or semi-independent state, but at the same time follow Chinese policies and Chinese international view. That may happen. But at the moment, I think both United States and China will be happier leaving Taiwan alone and not provoke any kind of conflict between them. Taiwan itself has been following a policy of a steady relationship with what they call the mainland. But basically they have the intention to be independent sometime or the other. So that cannot be resolved easily. Well, this is an old issue. It's not a present issue or anything. I don't think there was any kind of discussion on such things. But UNSG, sorry, NSG, we have a permanent waiver. And therefore there is really no reason for us to fight for membership of the NSG. Because I remember I was engaged in those negotiations when the United States informed us that they would welcome India to NSG. Originally all NSG members were against India entering. But the United States said that they will try to get India into NSG. And in that context, they pushed one or two other groups on us, which we were not particularly interested like the Convention of the Convention of the Australia Group on Chemical Weapons, Chemicals, etc. We are not very keen on that. But they promised all these together, four of these groups including NSG and then found that the other three went through while NSG remained because China vetoed it. Because China said that unless you sign the NPT, you cannot be in NSG. They are right in that sense because NSG is based on NPT. So unless we become a member of the NPT, we cannot be in the NSG. And my personal view is that we need not worry about it because we have a permanent unconditional waiver of the NSG conditions. So what we think is that we join NSG that will also be party to the decision-making of the NSG. That may be good, but that is not achievable. China is always a direct threat to India. There is no question about it whether they cooperate or not. But they are cooperating is better for us because there will be an atmosphere of peace rather than war. And if they are in conflict, naturally we will be drawn into it. So China being a threat to India will remain whatever be their relationship with the United States is. But if the atmosphere is that of peace, then China will also be perhaps more amenable to settling our border question and becoming friendly with India again. That's a distant future. But the Chinese threat to India will not be affected either way by this summit or US-China relationship. Well, our approach will definitely be that these two countries should coexist. President Trump's approach was more helpful to us because he was openly supportive of India. And at a very crucial moment in Ladakh, he forced disengagement on China by supporting India to the hilt. He and his Secretary of State were very open. And at that time, Quad was also emerging, not simply as a dialogue but as a major military alliance. So that was what President Trump was pushing for. And therefore, we got a very good support at that time. And that may be the reason why the Chinese agreed to disengage. But now we know that they are not so able to disengage. So that means what suited was President Trump's approach. But we have no quarrel with President Biden's approach either because if he is proposing coexistence, India would also be very happy as long as there is no interference or there is no aggression. And gradually we can move towards the demarcation of the border. And that is our objective. Demarcate the border and have a peaceful cooperative relationship with China. But how realistic it is, we will see. But that has nothing to do with the US position. But the Biden approach has made China less, shall we say, friendly to India. Because China's position on the border has not changed. We have some assumed talks at the commander's level again. But we haven't heard anything much about this engagement because that is very important for us. And therefore, that is what we will be pursuing. And so if President Trump was there, perhaps China would have initially more cooperative with India, I feel. But anyway, that is an academic question now. Now we have to deal with Biden's approach. And that does not seem to be against our interests. Yes, but definitely we'll order more arms from Russia. That is very clear because Russia expects us to maintain a balance between our arms from the West and arms from Russia. And it is when we reduce our arms purchases that Russia shows its disappointment. It happens the last time, two or three years ago, when Putin was in India. There was some unpleasantness because we had not purchased new arms. And with the S-400, that complaint has disappeared. And without provoking American action or sanctions, we'll probably remain within the limits of those possibilities. But S-400, it appears that there will be a waiver for us. That is the indication. That is why the Russians have announced that S-400 missiles have started arriving in India. And by the end of the year, the first batch will be assembled. And the Americans have not reacted to that yet. So we can believe that S-400 will be no sanctions. And we will continue to purchase arms from Russia. So there's nothing else. Thank you very much. We'll meet again next week.