 Okay. Hello and welcome. It's Tuesday, the 18th of May. And last night we had 13 F filings, which is always a really interesting point in the year where we get to see a little bit under the bonnet of some of the positional changes that major players in the market, i.e. hedge funds are making. And there was one big headline, the new big short, which is Tesla and Michael Barry. And I've got a head of Amplify me, Eddie Donmez is joining me, and he's going to talk us through exactly what that finding showed, why this bet's been taken as a rationale behind it. So Eddie, how's it going? Yes, good. Another big short. And it's Tesla this time. So there's Michael Barry, obviously very famous investor from the film on Netflix. And I'm sure you've seen it everywhere, the big short. He called the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008 2009. But he's out again with Tesla. And he's long 8,000 puts against 800,000 Tesla shares. So this is a notional amount that he's short of around 500 million or half a billion. And this is a sizable sum 40% of his total portfolio. So first let's dive into what is a put. Okay, so when would they benefit? It's essentially a derivative and these securities will benefit when the underlying shares, obviously being Tesla to crease past the strike price. So in this 30 net filing, it's not actually disclosed what the expiry of these puts are or the strike price. So we don't actually know if it's in profit yet. However, looking at Barry's track record, it's probably in the green slightly as especially as Tesla's down something like 35% as well. There was a post that you did and we were talking about how this disposition is different to say GameStop because he wants to protect himself against kind of a big breakout against his position. So can you explain that for us? Yeah, definitely. So last year and a bit of this year as well with obviously GameStop and AMC and the Reddit fueled rallies and all of that good type of stuff. It's very important to notice that he's not short calls, which slightly different kind of play. But given the short squeezes that we have seen some of those names and the gamma squeezes we saw even with soft bank with Tesla shares, if you remember last year and especially more recently, it's a much smarter way of actually playing this short without the threat of basically blowing up because being short the calls, if we've all seen the explosive rallies that names like Tesla and Reddit fueled kind of stocks can have, this is just a much smarter way of kind of, okay, a bit more initial capital up front, but protecting yourself from an explosive move for whatever reason. In the kind of market we're in, you know, high speculative excess. We've seen it with things like Dogecoin and Musk has a huge kind of following, which I guess slightly has been vented by the whole Bitcoin argument that he's been going after, but he's very much got to try behind him. But let's take a look at kind of why Burry's short. Yeah, talk me through the rationale. Yeah, so he well, he's long the purse, but he's effectively short. So he's, he has tweeted and then deleted. He's very kind of, he's very wary of the regulatory energy credits that Tesla have been kind of making a lot of money selling to different automakers. And it's kind of widely recognized that Tesla do share those energy credits. I mean, in Tesla's favor, or the argument for Tesla is why wouldn't you sell them if you were unable to? And the argument for the long term kind of ball case for Tesla is similar to that of Amazon, right? Why would you not sell those regulatory credits to then invest via Capex, new factories, you know, giga factories all over the world for to then lower your long term costs to then produce, you know, Model S's, etc. Model threes lower cost base, which is like $30,000 electric car that Musk has talked about quite frequently. Why wouldn't you do that and invest in the future if Amazon's a perfect example? And now they're the massive company that they are. So that's kind of the kind of case. However, let's take a look at Tesla and why it's been crashing more recently. It's down something like 15% last week, 35% over the last three months. The sales in the key market of China have dropped 26,000 in April. That's from 35,000 in the prior month of March. They've paused their plans to expand in Shanghai due to the regulatory kind of tensions coming from the administration. So Biden and a good kind of point that speaks to Murray's play as well, higher rates and the threat of inflation that everyone is talking about right now is hitting those highly speculative names across the board. Tesla is still trading at 97, pretty much 100 forward price to earnings ratio, which is still rich on a traditional basis. So speaking to Murray's play, he's basically aggressively positioning for inflation and higher yields. So he's got large cool positions on things like TLT, sorry, the ultra short ETF, 20 year ultra short, he's got to put on the TLT 20 year. So yes, he's betting on Tesla, the negative price action, but he's also got a more of a macro inflationary bet on as well. So of course, if you're looking at what's happened recently, inflation up yields up, lower discounted cash flows going out into the future for the high speculative names, tech stocks, high speculative names getting hit. Okay, so let's pivot back and let's talk about the other big proponent of this, which is Elon Musk. And he's gone from the SNL appearance. It's all gone a little bit slippery for him recently over the last week or so. Any thoughts on Elon? And one of the things just to lead you into this that I just wanted to share was I asked one of the guys to go back through and put together for me a study about the behavior of Elon on Twitter. And you and I were discussing this the other day, we were like, Christ, he's like the new Trump goes, someone's got to fill that position as like the dominant force on Twitter. And Elon Musk certainly isn't shy of putting forward his opinion as we've seen. And so what I wanted to do was look here today, but also do a slightly bigger study as well, which I'm still collating informational, but this is here today. So Musk has done about 1000, well, to be precise, he's done 109 tweets so far here today. So he's averaging around seven a day. But this is the profile of timings around when he tweets. What's quite interesting is if you were to factor in the opening hours of Wall Street, that's the lowest time of day of which then he tweets, whether or not there's any sensitivity to he's aware that the stock price is tradable at that point, whether he's actually doing some work and not on Twitter. But there's a really distinct pattern of where he tends to be most active post market close, if you're looking after the closing bell on Wall Street up until midnight. You can just imagine Elon sat there after a really, you know, a genius like him, I'm sure he's just got so much going on in his head. It all comes out. And so if you were looking at the session ahead, what I'm anticipating here is I'm sure Elon's going to bite. He seems like the character that actually enjoys confrontation. It's almost like a challenge to him. What do you reckon? Yeah, I mean, he's been kind of picking fights with the Bitcoin mob, probably kind of poking the bear on that one. I think he's so intellectually strong that he does love a challenge and he loves to pick apart arguments. And he almost doesn't care about the stock price. I think that's worth noting in the sense of he doesn't really seem to care if it goes up. Hence why he's been tweeting this stock price is too high before he doesn't really care if he gets hit in the short term. He's now got enough capital for that to be not an issue. So yes, I do believe that he will 100% have something to say about this. Like he's picked the fight with the Bitcoin mob. I definitely think he'll address this in some probably maybe not directly, but obscurely via some some tweets or or something like that. But who knows, we might get another movie out of it. That's like the big shot, which I'm hoping for. Well, just to finish is I was looking at the share price and downside I'd just like to mark out 542, which was that low that we printed back on the second of deck and the low on the fifth of March. Now yesterday we closed it around 576. But what I'm quite interested in is that we know Tesla is a very popular name amongst the retail crowd. And just by association of the big short, I wonder if that and to what degree behaviorally that has an impact, even though we're talking about one of the world's largest companies. So I definitely would have that on my radar. I think a breakdown, whether that happens today or not, I think a break of 542 we got a 500 ASAP, which would be that previous all time high that we were seeing back in in September of 2020. But let's see a few hours to go yet to the open. Yeah, let's I'm looking forward to seeing I think after that kind of run up last year. They were up 740 percent or something like last year with the inclusion of of them in the S&P because of those regulatory credits driving some of that. And I think they're sitting on their 200 day average or some moving out something like just 200. Yeah, exactly. So if that breaks down, then look out below. I do think it's a bit of mean reversion as well and this macro inflation hitting these names more generally. But yeah, let's see. Let's see if Musk responds. Cool. On that, thanks everybody. Have a good day. Thanks a lot.