 Stocks get tired, we get tired, stocks get tired, you need a breath and that's exactly what we are. You have to give the bulls the benefit of the dollar. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the accessatrader.com. Nightly Update Show, hope everybody is doing good. So after 7.5%, long day, 7.5% move on the Nasdaq last week, the question was, what was gonna happen next? Can we thrive and build off of the 20 day moving average we talked about on the nightly video? The worst case scenario that we talked about was going to be two-folds. Either gap and rollover lose the 20 day moving average or in a weird way for intraday traders, which almost is worse than that, is sit there and digest recent gains, yada, yada, yada. Here we are. Yeah, that's exactly what we did today. We literally digested recent gains. We talked about this at Morning Strategy today. There was an outside chance that we were gonna sit there and just kinda watch the raindrops, right? Watch the raindrops chase each other on a rainy day. And that's exactly what happened, and that's a good thing. Again, sometimes your day-to-day activities are not going to translate on the ledger, but at least it is giving you the bigger picture. And that's the most important part. And when you look at last week versus where we see the action today, it's a completely nominal give back. And that's the most important thing after a huge, huge run-up. Fractional losses, two-tenths, three-tenths across the board and the Dow, the S&P, and the NASDAQ, the Russell, the IWM actually squeaked out a little bit of a gain. But more important is to kinda give you a picture why this rest is necessary. So Tesla last week literally went from 6.39, this morning, beautiful run into the upper channel, into the 7.56 level. You're talking about 120 points in five days, right? Five days, it was down two bucks today, right? Amazon, that's not gonna look as impressive as Tesla, but again, remember it's 20 times more than it was. If you look where it was only five days ago, we went from 103 and Amazon went to 118. So, and you go down the whole row of every NASDAQ name and the point is everything rested today, which is fine. Here's kind of like the point that we talk about the devil's advocate, right? The worst case scenario. If you guys remember, we had a really good move above the 20-day moving average on May the 27th, and this resulted in about a two-week distribution. Now, hope the God and hope the market gods are listening and really paying attention, hopefully going to give us what I'm asking for. Hopefully this distribution is only one or two days and then we resume the uptrend and start attacking this linear regression line of 300 bucks and ultimately attacking the 50-day moving average of 305. Again, nobody could control price action, right? As much as we want every single day to be super aggressive, super violent, expansion channels, again, rest is good. Again, I've used this analogy time and time again. You run a 26-mile rep marathon. You got your hands up in the air, right? And then they tell you at the finish line, by the way, it's not a marathon, it's a triathlon. You still have to swim and you have to bike. Stocks get tired, we get tired, stocks get tired, you need a breath and that's exactly where we are. You have to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt until what happens, right? You see this right here? Until we gave up the 20-day moving average after reclaiming it here. So the most important part of all this equation is this 290 area. The longer we build above this 290 area, the higher probability these stocks will get their second wind and go higher. Again, nobody's talking about the bear market is over and nobody's talking about this was the bottom. Maybe it is, maybe it's not. Who cares? It's all about what happens next and preparing for it. As an intraday trader, yes. I would love to see every single day, go bananas, go buck wild, and it's just not the reality. I've been saying this for years. The market doesn't care what we want, okay? It's the market that we have, not the market what we want. But the most important part is on this little pullback today and again, this was all a nice decompression. Stretch the arms, stretch the legs, stretch the back. Just to get a little bit of downtime for these stocks to kind of get their feet under them, there was no violence. There was no selling pressure. Even stocks that had the biggest runs, and you arguably had the biggest runs over the last month or so, these EV Chinese stocks, which I think that could be a trade there. I'll talk about that in a second. Even they got back to the rising five-day support. You can see this every time it gets to the five-day support, it goes back higher. Even they got back to this five-day support, kind of yawned a little bit and started moving back into the upside. But there is a trade, right? And we're always looking for a trade. For the stocks that are the Teslas of the World, the Amazons of the World, and the Apples and all that stuff, yes. We kind of want to, unless they really, really wake up tomorrow, which will be a very pleasant surprise, okay? I think we have to start looking at, maybe not for everybody, but for me, these are B and C-level stocks. Not B-level, B and C-level setups, but B and C-level stocks. So for example, if the EV's a hot, on my mother-in-law, I would not be trading XPV, I'd be trading Tesla, right? If, for example, if Tesla's going crazy, I'm not gonna say, well, watch LI, that's gonna go. But beggars can't be choosers, so for Tesla waiting, and for Tesla kind of being nice and calm, and Amazon being nice and calm, we have to find a game plan that we can take advantage of. So the theme of stocks resting, right? Stocks resting and taking a breather, well, that's when we have to start looking at the LIs. And if you go through this chart, you see how it held this double bottom perfectly on this rising five-day support. See, I'm watching this thing to the downside tomorrow. If this thing starts losing this five-day channel, again, if you've been watching this broadcast for any amount of time, you know how important the five-day moving average is for me. So if you're looking at the five-day, and it touched it perfectly today, if it confirms the five-day moving average, then we got about $4 or $5 of downside to the 10-day moving average. A name like XPV, again, there's a theme here, right? The China EVs, you notice it stopped perfectly the same way LI stopped. The low here is 33.83, the low here is 83.82, right? Can you guess where it needs to break down? So I'm watching the bottom of this channel here as well. Look at Neo, big put buyers coming in all day, right? It stopped right at the five-day moving average. If Neo confirms the five-day moving average tomorrow, look how much room it has down. So again, are these the stocks that I'm waking up tomorrow and go, wow, I can't wait, man, this is gonna be awesome. No, it's the market we have, not the market we want. So these are definitely on my watch. Name's like a coin base, and literally of all the stocks today, of all the pivots today we had literally only one stock confirm. And today it was coin base, right? Coin base got downgraded today, Goldman Sachs, it took out this 59 pre-market low and closed, right? Pretty much on the lows. This thing starts losing 55 tomorrow, I think this thing goes lower. This is literally the only organic pivot today that did anything, nothing else confirmed. There was a couple of bounce plays that stole that a little bit, not here, not there, nothing earth shaking. But as far as natural pivots goes, absolutely nothing because that's what happens in digestion. Remember, if you're trying to trade an expansion channel while a contraction channel is going on, you're going to completely churn yourself to death. You're gonna burn a lot of mental equity and when two days come by and the channel start expanding again, you're not gonna know the difference between a contraction channel and an expansion channel, you're gonna trade it exactly the same way. Fortunately, we've been doing this for a while, right? This is not our first rodeo, we kinda know exactly what distribution looks like, we kinda know and understand the importance of arrest and that's exactly what the market did. So if you look at the overall spectrum of the market, again, this is all you need to know. Anything above 290, we give the bulls continuous, we give the bulls the continuous benefit of doubt. First close below the 20 day moving average, you can see what happened here the first day below the 20, we got absolutely manhandled for the next week. That will be obviously a big red signal above the 290 level, it's obviously give the bulls the benefit of doubt as far as the spies go. Again, same thing, the spies went in the last six days from 362 to 391, that's a huge, huge move. Again, they need to rest. The only thing that, again, if you play devil's advocate, the only thing that we saw today that was a little bit interesting and kind of like we kind of raised our eyebrows, mid-morning we started seeing some really aggressive bets in the options market, short-term expiration, deep out of the money puts on both the IWM and the spies. You're talking about tens of millions of dollars worth of premium being put on the table. So that's something we have to watch. Now again, we don't know if they know something, the old adage on social media, somebody knows something, maybe somebody does, maybe somebody doesn't, or they're just guessing. All they're getting guessing. And the last thing you wanna do as a trader is absolutely guess. It's going to kill you, especially if you're trading on the option side, if you're trading on the option side, you're fighting time, you're fighting price, it's more important you're fighting time. And the most important part of that is if you're anticipating it stalls out in that channel, you're gonna get squeezed back and your premium disappears a long life if existence. I don't know what the hell I just said there, but it sounded good in my head. After a while, if the six, seven hours of speaking can't get the words out, this is called the wrong side of 40. So anyway, that's the case guys. I have a basketball game to attend to. Hopefully the channels will wake up tomorrow. Hopefully we will put ourselves in a situation of strength, but the most important part is we understand what we're up against here. We understand what we're not up against here. And the most important part is we understand how to navigate those markets. Guys, have a great night. God bless and I will see you all tomorrow. Take care.