 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network. I could not be more pumped for Sunday's games in the NFL We have got fantastic games in all three time slots early window. We got Houston versus Denver We got Philly versus San Fran the afternoon and then of course Pretty intriguing game between the cheese and the Packers to cat things off We're gonna break down all three of those games here on covering the spread for today breaking down what dr. Ed Fang's number say Relative to the markets at Fandall sports, but to get you ready, which should be a very fun week 13 This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here as I am every Thursday by dr. Ed Fang find his work at the power bank comma check about a Twitter at the power bank and Pretty fun slate of games coming up Sunday. How you doing today? I'm doing great. I'm looking forward to another awesome weekend of both college football and the NFL and Yeah, we really do have a good slate of games I mean, I like we talked about yesterday. It starts on Friday with that with that Pac-12 championship games So three consecutive days of pretty fun games Yeah, I can do with that for sure and we don't have a lot of these weekends left But we get this many days of good football. So we got to cherish it while it's still here for sure Absolutely, I mean, you know, but near the New Year is obviously gonna be awesome. Yes with You know an NFL Sunday and then New Year's on Monday with the semi-final games That's gonna be pretty awesome, but I think we got to really enjoy this week, right? I mean for both college football and the NFL. Yeah, definitely and Next year will be a lot different with the 12 team playoff It'll give us some more juice for a longer time for college football But at least for this year, we'll enjoy this weekend to cap it all off We're gonna dive into the Sunday games here in just one second to get you ready From a betting perspective for week 13 But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast on that same feed right now You can find our breakdown of college football the conference championship week We talked about that Pac-12 championship game SEC big 10 ACC all in the same place to get ads numbers for those games By checking out the podcast wherever you get your podcast If you like what you hear leave us a five-star rating on Apple podcasts or over on Spotify as well We want to break down of the Thursday night game between Seattle and Dallas That is up as well in the covering the spread podcast feed via Tom Vecchia with prime time Tom and over on fan dual TV Plus as well score early this NFL season with Fandall America's number one sportsbook right now new customers get $150 and bonus bets with any winning $5 money line bet That's 150 bucks if your team wins if you've been thinking about joining Fandall There is no better time to get in on the action. The app is so easy to use There is a wide range of betting options including spreads player props totals and more So visit Fandall and kick off the NFL season Fandall official partner of the NFL must be 21 plus in present and select states Fandall is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Tarkas, you know, LLC first online real money wager only $5 pregame money line wager acquired $10 first deposit acquired Bonus issued is now a travel bonus bets that expires seven days after a seat sea terms at sportsbook. Fandall calm gambling problem Call 1 800 gambler or visit Fandall comm slash RG Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee and Virginia call 1 800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in Arizona 1 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut 1 800 9 with an Indiana 1 800 5 2 2 4700 or visit KS gambling health comm in Kansas 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in Louisiana visit MD Gaming Health at Oregon, Maryland's 1 800 gambler net in West Virginia 1 800 5 2 2 4700 in Wyoming hope is here as a gambling helpline MA.org or call you 100 3 2 7 50 50 for 7 support of Massachusetts or call 1 8 7 7 8 open Y or text open Y in New York Now before we dig into the actual games on Sunday I do want to talk to you about The futures market because a couple years ago when Tom Brady was in his first year at Tampa Bay You pinpointed the Buccaneers around this time as a team that had untapped upside and said Maybe they were looking into in the futures market, of course They did win it all so I got to go back to the well-ed any teams You think fit a similar mold when you look at the overall landscape here for 2023 It's not exactly similar, but I mean I think Buffalo is certainly the team that I mean We all know that they had Super Bowl potential because if you asked anyone 12 games ago You would have made them one of the favorites co-favorites. Maybe actually the favorite I think I remember talking to Dr. Eric eager about the the differences between Buffalo and Kansas City and he actually think thought the Buffalo had a Overall more talented roster the season really hasn't gone like they have planned their six and six But they're two and six and one score game. So that's clearly been the problem. Yeah, what are there some walls, man? Whoa It's kind of that's kind of exciting Yeah, it's like once very clearly because of the playoff positioning, but like if they make it They're a dangerous team. They're clearly a dangerous team I mean they're they're gonna have to play an extra game, but almost everyone plays an extra game now and Nothing's really been wrong with the offense except turnovers when I look at passing success rate adjusted for opponent They're their fourth and and I just don't believe their defense is as bad as 27th Which is where the numbers have them for the course of the year we've seen a lot of defenses that have gone out and and really stump it up and then And then they're slowly regressing back to NFL average, which is probably elite probably where they belong I'm thinking about like Miami in particular They have been playing better. We kind of expect that they do have the talent you get a jail in Ramsey back Vic Fangio probably still knows what he's doing even though it didn't seem like that for the first couple games of the season I think you I think there's similar thing arguments that can be made for Buffalo's defense despite some of the injuries So I would definitely go with Buffalo there And then also like I wouldn't you know, they're probably not gonna make the playoffs, but I wouldn't sleep on the Chargers either Be kind of interesting to see if there's value Against the spread look they still got Justin Herbert still have Keenan Allen. They're also two and five and one score games Are they good? No, but are they better than the record? Yeah, probably Yeah, they're plus seven ten to make the playoffs after that loss to Baltimore on Sunday They get the Patriots this week. I've got them as pretty heavy favorites I think in that game they're five and a half. I think it's six. Yeah, if I have a faddle right now I've got them heavily favorite in that game. So I Think they're interesting. I I've been burned by them quite a bit So I don't think I can get there personally but the bills like if you look at overall Like power rankings like, you know, look at your numbers. I look at my numbers Like there's still a top five team by those numbers in part because I down weight defense So I know that that's part of it But like defense is less predictable less sticky than a lot of other things at least based on what I've found So I don't mind doing that Probably not gonna have Vaughn Miller now. There's been some pretty I think there's a rest worn out for him So that's not ideal obviously for their defense, but he wasn't playing that well to begin with so Like obviously the reason they're plus 360 to make the playoffs is because they face a very tough schedule But like the ANC is pretty vulnerable at the bottom end of it right now You know, you're looking at Texans Broncos face off this weekend the Browns suck They've got a horrible quarterback situation the sealers gotta win They'll probably win this week too, but like we know their limitations as well So although the the bills have that tough schedule. I don't think it's fair to count them out quite just yet Yeah, I mean, there's still six and six and Jim are you saying that having Joe Flacco win the backup job is not good for your quarterback situation Please explain to me why why is that spread tightening for Rams Browns? I laid the four and a half and I feel like a moron cuz it's down to three and a half now Tell me why Joe Flacco is inspiring optimism in the betting market right now. I mean, it's it's it's probably something else, but But I'm Garret might now play to like what's what's happening right? Well, he's got to be worth a couple points. So maybe that's more likely than Yeah But like it shortened it shouldn't have shortened if Miles Garrett might miss and I'm like very frustrated So I just think the the Browns are a fraudulent team I saw a whale capper drew dinzik on Twitter talking about some playoff probabilities He said that his numbers were a lot lower on Cleveland. I was like vindication like I need I need drew on my side at all times Yeah, but like they're just they're just such a bad team that I can't stand it But here we are spreads tightening on the dummy once again. So we'll see how things play out there but I agree the I think the bills are still a threat and The the odds are accounting for their playoff positioning So I think you can take a swing it upside for a team that could do some damage if they were to make it in the ASC playoffs Let's talk about that first. We'll get throwing game on Sunday We got the Broncos heading to Houston to take on the Texans were right now This spread is a three and a half and the total is 47 and a half and and the Broncos defense has been a lot more Impressive recently than they were earlier on this year Are you buying into that enough to back them against the Texans? No, not really. I mean, I feel like Denver is six and five, but they're kind of uh, you know, they're they're You know, they're like they're like Washington and Florida state and college football They're kind of sounding off those fraud alarms, right? I mean you kind of look at these games Look at some of these box scores. They beat Kansas City and when Kansas City turned it over five times Uh squeaked by Buffalo In a game the Buffalo turned it over four times I mean it just goes on and on you got that one point win over, uh, Minnesota And uh, you know, you faced ETR last week and getting, you know, a nice win, but I don't know. I'm kind of not buying on Denver and this this game I feel like every game for Houston from now on out is going to be kind of interesting To look at what you would have made a pre-season Uh, pre-season I would have made Denver minus four on the road here If you just look at data from the current year, you're going to make Houston minus seven at home And the real answer is going to be somewhere in between. You know, my model says Houston by 1.3 points. That seems low So, you know, I Yeah, I wouldn't trust my number on it You know, it's just a matter of like where where you where you pick how to wait certain things How how are you going to split the difference? I think Houston minus three and a half is just is a pretty good number Um, I don't particularly like Denver and I feel like we had the same conversation last week with Houston against Jacksonville and and that was the opposite because I think Jacksonville is not fraudulent I think they're a pretty good football team and maybe an underrated football team too because uh, I've been You know, I don't track stuff like EPA, but apparently they don't look particularly good by EPA But they look a lot better by passing success rate and that's the kind of thing I think projects Is is more sticky and is going to tend to persist and and and I think Trevor Lawrence is is potentially going to be an elite quarterback So, uh, much different situation this week, uh And and and a Denver team that I don't like so, uh, I'm staying away from this one Yeah, I did look it up and I had this at one Denver by 1.2 in the pre season So I was a bit higher in Houston then which is again, it goes back to the discussion We've had a bunch where I've had value on the Texans money line every single game so far this year including last week Which did not go well. Obviously after that, uh, that miss field goal towards the end but like For whatever reason my numbers were high in Houston began the year and they're still high on them So I do show value on the three and a half right now Um, but like I think that makes sense when you're talking about how your numbers say if it's just 2023 data They'd be favored by six and if I had it at 1.2 In the pre season in favor of Denver, it kind of does make sense that I would show value in Houston minus three and a half at this point given that the prior has a lot less weight now than it did earlier on so I agree that you I think that like This Denver team is kind of fraudulent. Um, they've had better defense recently But I get to remember the like they lit up I think 20 plus points to joshua dobbs then turn into a pump in the following week and They faced the combination of dorian thompson robinson and pj walker last week Like they did play very well against both buffalo and candy city But that's a two game sample. So i'm still very skeptical of this defense which leads me to think that houston Continues to be undervalued. So and I want to watch cj throughout the playoffs so selfishly. I hope that they Can win this game as well Right. Yeah, I mean that would that would be pretty fun. Alrighty. Let's talk about the headliner here Which is on sunday afternoon between the eagles and the 49ers right now The 49ers are two and a half point favorites total in this game Is 47 and a half and we talked about being lower on the eagles throughout this year But they keep getting the job done didn't cover the opening number against buffalo last week So did get the bills to cover their push on if you got on three But now they're home dogs. So can they cover in the spot against a very very lethal 49ers team? Right, I mean, I think they can in the in the way I When uh, when when I heard when I heard about this game and san francisco was a favorite I was like, oh, yeah, that makes sense. I think the eagles are overrated Probably the most overrated amongst those those top teams But when you look at kind of the magnitude of the spread and you kind of fuss around with the math I mean and you're basically saying well, if san francisco is two and a half point road favorite that means they're four and a half five points better than eagles on a neutral site and You know, like my numbers right now have san francisco About six and a half points better Than nfl average and I think that's generous. I think anytime you're close to a touchdown better than nfl average Like you're probably overestimating a team, especially a team without approving quarterback Although I think part of you's been really good this year So anyways, if you back it out, I mean, you're kind of saying philly's only two points better than nfl average And that seems way low that that doesn't seem right to me I think I think the eagles are overrated, but They're better than that. They're still a good team. They're still they're still a very good football team So, you know, my my number is actually favor filling this game. I do think there is some value here with philly plus plus two and a half and Ben brown was on my podcast he he talked about this this game as well The way he looks at it in terms of epa and in his modeling He also thinks there's there's value here. He sees enough good things with the eagles that he finds value in You know the eagles being plus two and a half at home Yeah, plus two and a half right now for the eagles is minus 104 there was a plus three very briefly yesterday at fando sportsbook on the eagles That is that went away pretty quickly. So it does seem like people were interested once it got to three here and like I Agree the eagles are overvalued, but like this does seem like a pretty drastic swing now. I say that while looking at my I've again, I'm leaning on my alternate model for the eagles because they're so weird with their passing efficiency that I just can't Trust my my traditional model and I look at the other one and it has San Francisco by 2.4 But that's because it views San Francisco as being like the superpower kind of team where they're like a tier above everybody else So like even that model I can't trust for this week So I just have ignored all value I've shown on San Francisco because like I just don't feel like Going that way for this week and I think to honestly add We know the way that your model works If your model shows value on Philadelphia a team that it views as being Bit fluky in the way they won these games I think that should speak more to the value in Philly Given that we know they're just a weird team like they have such Good late down efficiency via the tush push and stuff like that they convert key situations So I think if your model is showing value while potentially underselling them Like I think that does tell us a lot about this game Yeah, no for sure right and you know, I I try to almost exclusively not put in things like tush push Rush success rate numbers into my model. It's I mean it's there But it really doesn't matter that much so You know given that my model is very heavily passing base and it's showing value I would I would agree. I mean, I I like it even though I think the eagles are averted Right and like the weird thing about them is like even they're like late down success rate is not As high as you think it'd be so like that's why they're kind of a weird team to me But like I agree. I think that this is this is a spot where we're gonna buy the eagles It's the right place to do so. I'll happily take my bills plus three and a half from last week But I think that this is a good spot to potentially buy into what it's actually Undoubtedly a very good football team Let's finish up here by talking about the sunday night game between the chiefs and the packers right now a fandal sports book Chiefs are six point favorites total is 42 and a half. The spread was six and a half earlier on this week now down to six Jordan love has had pretty good efficiency numbers the past couple of weeks and The overall picture on him is like better than I thought it'd be but ed it's the chiefs now And they've had a very good defense this year. So can love do enough here to keep this game close and cover a six point spread Yeah, I mean, I don't think so my model doesn't think so it's got Kansas City by six point three points on the road So pretty much right in line with the market, you know, Kansas City's top rank team I do think that's where they should be at this point, you know, the rating is a little bit high And it has to be to to be a six point favorite On the road. I did look into some of these uh, Jordan love games and you know, he's been really good Against the Rams the charters and Detroit. However, those are not exactly Defenses that you want to write home about. Yeah, my adjusted passing success rate the Rams are 15th Uh, which is actually probably pretty good compared to what a lot of people thought this preseason The chargers are 26th with which is just just bad It's just part of the the general malaise of uh, of thinking, you know, a lot of people I think kind of think the chargers is going to be good every year and just hasn't worked out and then Detroit a defense that we talked about Having, uh, you know being better being improved actually helping the secondary. Well, they're down to 31st In my adjusted passing success rate that's certainly not good And they they weren't good against jordan love, uh in that game yet Their offense is so good that they probably could have won that game had they just converted some fourth downs, right? They were down like 17 nothing and I was like checking live money lines. They were still even money I'm like, god dang it. Like I'm trying to like I'm trying to like live bet this team But like the market is so high on them that I can't I was so annoyed and like it's good because I would have lost that money But like I was annoyed that I couldn't bet them No, but even money is probably the right call. Yeah, it is Yeah, I don't know. I think it's interesting to to think about the packers, you know in in my newsletter Uh, I had a nugget from sharp clerk who is an NFL handicapper watches all every snap and he Thought that there were he thought there was some value in the packers against I think Pittsburgh So, yeah, I don't know he sees improvement. So people who kind of watch more of the snaps and I do see some improvement in this packers offense. Um You know, is that really there we'll see I'm interested in watching this game I'm interested in Seeing the development of jordan love because it's really hard to play quarterback in the NFL, right? And I think as an analyst, I certainly haven't given up on him as a potential NFL starter But I'm certainly not writing. Yeah, I'm not penciling him in as a starter next year either. Uh, he's probably in that middle zone an interesting quarterback to look at and uh, and see see how it goes Yeah, uh, I've had a lot of value on green bay recently. I do want to check to see Yeah, I guess it's the past four games. I've shown value on them on the money line Uh, they lost to Pittsburgh. So I I didn't get that one But then they beat the chargers and then they beat, uh, Detroit as well So this is the fourth consecutive game and honestly i'm a bit surprised by that. Um, I don't Particularly love love. I've never really been that high and didn't like coming out Didn't have a high opinion even coming into the year, but I guess they just kind of been okay enough to get by I think their defense is pretty rough So like that does make me nervous here because the cheese can run it up Jaden reed did not practice Wednesday or Thursday. So I took the Packers plus six and a half and that makes me nervous now with reed missing practice there so My model has been high on them recently I agreed with it enough to take the six and a half. Um, but like i'm a bit nervous now with reed being bagged up I'm assuming Aaron Jones won't play but like reed being out would be a downgrade too. So I I don't buy into jordan love being great. I buy into their offense being efficient enough to get by I think that's like the most wishy washy statement that it's ever existed Uh, but like that's just kind of how I feel about them. So it's not like an endorsement of love that I took the six and a half it's more so just like I guess, you know, I trust matt la floor enough I trust their offensive skill players enough even without Aaron Jones to like be okay with it But the the jaden reed injury does give me at least some pause with that one Any other spots over at it? Oh, this is gonna say I mean the chiefs are like a six point road favorite Even if you're the best team in the nfl It's a challenge to cover six points on the road I think green day is the least respectable enough that That we can give them the benefit of that out that maybe they can keep this close and and cover it That's the hope uh, but watching the chiefs those final three quarters Against the raiders did make me question this one a little bit But I think I trust the the model here Any other bets where you see value across week 13 ed Yeah, let's actually talk about the thursday night game. Uh, I actually have an interception lean on this one Dak Prescott has gone through one heck of a stretch in terms of interceptions and his last six games He only has two picks, uh, but 28 bad balls, uh bad balls are either a pick Or a situation in which the defender gets a hand on the ball It's essentially all times that a quarterback puts the ball into a dangerous situation and dak prescott, uh Last year threw a ton of picks And so and I think that was uh a surplus of bad balls ended up as picks The nfl average is about 20 so when you have two out of your last 28 end up as uh interceptions. That's I don't know exactly what the number is, but it's less than 20 um, uh, so Yeah, so, you know, you can get dak over half interception at minus 115 tonight at seattle, um Oh, hey, look you guys have a line for it I know amazing You got me on day of ed that you got day of so you're good. That's why I've seen phantom will take these things now I don't know. I I've I've tried to check some of these uh at kickoff and and not seem anyway And it's the best price minus 114. So there you go got got you by a hair excellent, uh So anyways, I would say uh, so dak's bad ball rate has actually been worse this year than than his long-term average I think we're seeing like the opposite swing of luck. He had really bad luck with picks last year He's having very good luck. Well with interceptions over the last six games He started to chuck the ball deep a lot too. You can kind of see that uh in in the game against the new york giants that is something uh that also Lends itself to uh Interceptions the fact that he is trying to go deep not like earlier in the season where he wasn't at all So anyways, my model has about 57 chance to throw us a pick here Uh, so I would lean towards uh, dak to prokac Well, I think that you should almost bet this at a principle just because of passing volume um since their biweek they played four games and They've had uh, sorry five games now 31 pass attempts 44 35 38 and 32 and you look at the score It's like hey, they're heavy favorites. I may not throw as much but like They were big favorites in a lot of those games too and they still threw the ball a ton like that giants game they were up 40 points basically and still threw it 35 times so Like it's the bad balls, but also like it's just raw volume. So probability wise Like it just makes a lot of sense in that perspective So I think that one makes a ton of sense personally like I love dak I think he's been I think you should be hiring the mvp voting Then he is then he is right now But like minus one 14 throw a pick at that volume against a a secondary that has good corners Like I think that's a fantastic one. I love it Yeah, it's been interesting to watch, you know smith's line go from Like plus 160 to not to throw a pick to uh minus 160. Yeah, uh, so You know the chance that he throws a pick doesn't change that much, right? Like So it's you know, I actually have you know about the same About 57% there there wasn't any value on no and I don't really like you know, no, but yeah These markets shift more than they didn't they probably should and that's a good sign that that you can get some value in it All right. I love it It's a dak to throw a pick minus one 14 at fandals sportsbook For the thursday night game ad is also like the eagles plus two and a half as they take on the 49ers later on That is all that we have here for it today On covering the spread but eddie mentioned the ben brown conversation over on your show the football analytics show What else has went on for you this week at the power rank? Um right in my newsletter So if you're looking for the action this weekend check out five no get saturday It's my curated list of sports betting tips in analytics. I think this weekend is going to be a really good one I'm pretty excited about some of the things that I got lined up So you can check that out at the power rank dot com That is a tease Ladies and gentlemen to find that the power rink dot com and check out the podcast with ben brown at the football analytics show Follow ed on twitter at the power rink. I am on twitter at jim saunas You can find me on threads at jim dot saunas and you can follow fan dual research at fan dual research We are back once again tomorrow talking some player props with the jj zack recent We'll also have austin cast on to talk about the epl got austin back for this week talk about some more Soccer thrilled to have that back on the show as well We'll talk to you all once again tomorrow. Enjoy thursday night and then we'll talk to you again to crown up the week on friday This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network