 All right, everybody, welcome to Iran Book Show on this November 10th Thursday morning. We're doing morning shows these days at the Iran Book Show. All right. So this is a bit of an experiment. We did the show yesterday with the results, a quick show on the results, a breaking news type show. That turned out a lot of people watched it. A lot of people were interested. The fact that it was morning did not seem to deter many of you from watching it live and lots of people watching it after the fact. We also did good super chat. It was quite good in a super chat. Mornings are pretty convenient for me, particularly right now during the year as I'm traveling. I'm in a different hotel room today because little competition for the time. So this is good. So if we can make some thinking and I'm curious what you guys think because you guys are customers at the end of the day and you guys determine the shape of the show in many respects. I'm curious what you think about doing maybe even every morning, or at least let's say three times a week, maybe every morning, a quick update on the news. So kind of a half an hour show, me going over the key things I think that in the news right now, maybe a little bit of commentary about them, kind of giving you the ability to use the Iran Book Show as your new source for quick updates on what's going on in the world. On you go with the rest of your day and we leave the evening shows for more in-depth analysis. So we get the kind of the newsy stuff out of the way and we leave the evening shows for the for the deep analysis. I'm curious what guys what you guys think about that I'm open to input about it. You can leave it either in the chat or you can leave it in the comment section if you come out. If you're not watching it live, but it would be valuable to me, you know, theoretically if one day we did this five days a week every morning, we did we did a quick show just to get you up to speed on what's happening in the news, at least through my filter, would that be a value to you? Would it be something you'd be interested in participating in and listening to watching and maybe contributing a little bit towards? So we're trying to evolve the Iran Book Show to make it more appealing to you and more interesting for you. So looking forward to your, you know, to you guys as you guys as input. Let's see. So a couple of items in the news I want to cover. We're not going to again, these shows are going to be short. So my plan is not to spend too much time on these issues, but just a few things that are worth covering quickly. We'll take one that's not related to the election and then we'll jump it to the election a little bit. Why is this not exactly working? I guess it is, isn't it? Oh, because I didn't press start. If you don't press start, things don't stop. Isn't that shocking? All right, I think everything's working out. OK, so first time in the news, which I think is is is interesting and important is the fact that Russia has announced that it is withdrawing from Gilson. Gilson is the only regional capital that Russian forces actually occupied since the beginning of the war. They tried to occupy Kharkiv. They try to occupy, ultimately, they tried to occupy Kiev. They failed with both of those. The one city that actually managed to occupy is Gilson. Gilson is in the south. And to the south of Gilson, there is a river. The Ukrainian forces over the last couple of months are being slowly chipping away at Russian positions all around the city of Gilson and to its east and to its to its north and have been closing in on the city itself. Yesterday, the Russians, Russians basically announced that they will be withdrawing from Gilson. They will be withdrawing from the city and handing it over in a sense, handing control over to the Ukrainians. This is a major step. It's also a major change. I think the Russians have figured out that if they're going to leave a territory, if they're going to be withdrawing, it's better to do so in an organized fashion. It's better to do so in a planned fashion than experience the kind of routes that they have experienced both on the east in the northeast and more recently in the Gilson province, where the Ukrainians just overrun them and then get a bunch of equipment from them. This way, the Russians will be able to retreat in an orderly way. They'll be able to salvage a lot of the equipment. They'll be able to take it back to the other side of the river. So this is a major, major defeat for Putin. It's a major, major defeat for Putin's ambitions with regard to Ukraine. It is one more defeat. It's one more sign, one more piece of evidence to the complete incompetence of the Russian military, both from an equipment perspective, from a manpower perspective. Their ability to maintain ground that they took in the first few days of the war is pathetic and their ability to stand up to Western equipped Ukrainians just is non-existent. So Russia is clearly failing in its efforts in Ukraine. Ukraine, it's going to take a long time for Ukraine to regain the land. Ukraine's primarily because Russian military is digging in and Putin seems to be committed to his many troops, getting as many troops killed as necessary in order for him to save face in some kind of way. Although I'm not sure what way he can save face, given the thorough thrashing that Ukraine has provided the Russian forces in Ukraine. So it's going to be interesting. It's likely that once the Ukrainians, once the Russians retreat from this northern section of Gyrsyn province, the city of Gyrsyn, that the Ukrainians basically don't try to cross the river and don't try to take the southern part of Gyrsyn because it's just logistically too difficult and they expose themselves to Russian firepower. That probably keeps some troops there to keep the Russians busy. But my guess is that they will move their attack to further east to the province east of Gyrsyn province and they will try to encircle Russian troops by attacking from there. They will also continue their focus in Luhansk province and to try to encircle Russian troops over there and try to break their supply lines. That will be tough over the winter. Winter fighting is going to be difficult for the Ukrainians, as it is for the Russians. I think the Ukrainians are probably better positioned to handle it. Their supply lines are better, as well as, of course, the supplies and the support they're getting from the West is substantial. So, you know, huge victory for the Ukrainians. We'll see how much they can leverage this in the, you know, as winter approaches into more victories. But they've done a phenomenal job. And again, given all the experts, the generals, the mainstream media's expectation of the complete capitulation of Ukraine and Russian victory, the rights adoration of Putin and the rights expectation, even on this chat, expectation of a Putin, a quick or slow or whatever, Putin victory, I think we're just getting more and more and more confirmation that the Ukrainians, the Ukrainians are defeating the Russians and will continue to defeat the Russians on the battlefield. What consequence that has, we will have to see this is going to be another year before we know much more about how this all plays out. But as I've said, over and over and over again, over the last few months, Russia has lost already. I mean, the latest figures out of the US Pentagon is that Russia might have lost a hundred thousand troops. A hundred thousand soldiers have died in Ukraine or at least been died or injured to the point where they can't be soldiers anymore. Most of these are professional soldiers. Most of these are, you know, part of the volunteer army that Russia had. This is the core of the Russian military. This is a significant percentage of battle ready forces in Ukraine in Russia, not to mention the number of tanks and the number of other military equipment that they have lost, both that were captured and destroyed. I mean, the waste in lives, the tragedy for the families, the tragedy for these young people who will never have the opportunity to live a life is horrific. What exactly did they die for? For Putin's grandeur, for Putin's ambition, for some greater Russia. Most of them never knew what they died for. Most of them never knew what they were fighting for. You know, you could say the Ukrainians are fighting for their home, for they're fighting for their families. They're fighting for the for the, you know, their own freedom. What are the Russians fighting for? They have no clue. What are they dying for? They have no clue. Super sad, super tragedy, a super waste of human life, a super waste of wealth, but primarily of human life. How can Russia recover from this? I don't know. How can Russia rebuild an army? I don't know. Remember, Russian birth rates are very low. They have fewer and fewer young people anyway. They just managed to kill 100,000 young people or make them unproductive. How does Russia ever recover from that? Just from from an economic cultural perspective, I don't think it can. Again, Russia is a shrinking population, an aging population. This is a this is a fading so-called superpower. This is, you know, Putin's fantasy of resurrecting the Soviet Union is dead. Of course, he has also managed to get Sweden, Finland into NATO, something that nobody would have ever expected is happening. He has managed to, in some senses, unite the European Union around a cause, anti-Putin cause and every front. This is being an unmitigated disaster for Russia. And it continues with the news coming out about the Russian retreating from Gerson, so I feel for the for the Ukrainians and, you know, who are battling day in, day out against these Russians. And I feel for the Russian troops who have no clue what they're doing there and why they're there. It's it's, you know, you could say they could defect or they could. It's very difficult, very difficult to, you know, to actually defect in a situation like this. So they're dying for no fault of their own. All right, so, you know, that's the that's the update on Russia. Another quick update, you know, because you don't see this and I've said this in the past, you don't see this in the news. But from all indications from everything, I can see the the demonstrations in Iran continue, the mocking of the regime continues. The demand for the regime to fold, the demand for a complete and utter revolution and getting rid of the theocracy continues. The brave young girls and women of Iran continue to, you know, to stand up against the theocrats. The theocrats continue to use violence against them and the violence is becoming more deadly. But it has not escalated to the point where they're willing to kill hundreds or willing to kill thousands of people. Well, hundreds are already dead, but thousands of people. And I think the reason for that is that this revolution, this uprising by young people is popular, it's popular across many, many cities and many, many strata of the Iranian population. And I think the regime is truly scared. About escalating the violence and therefore escalating the demonstrations and therefore risking a real revolution. There also might be, and this is the most positive spin you can put in this, they might be a real power struggle within Iran. They actually might be a struggle for among more moderate theocrats because it's all theocrats, but more moderate theocrats to give in to maybe loosen the rules around the hijabs, maybe do stuff like that. Now, whether that will appease these young girls, I don't know, because they're really demanding an end for this regime. But there could be a power struggle. And that's, again, why they're not using more deadly force. So I see nothing about this in the press, nothing on this mainstream media. You know, I keep watching on my Google News feed or my Apple News feed on other news feeds. There's almost zero coverage of this. You know, one of the things, but Twitter covers this well. You know, citizen journalists are posting videos of covering this or bringing this to the surface. So, you know, the only really place to find information about what's going on in Iran is on Twitter. One of the things that's happening is are these videos that are being posted of young girls, primarily girls, running up to these different clerics and moulas and knocking their head, you know, the turbine or whatever the head thing is called off the head and running away. And I think this is great. I think this shows the appropriate disrespect for the moulas. It shows the appropriate disrespect for their headwear, headgear. And it shows the bravery of these young women. They often do it in where the moulas are alone or where they can get out, they can they can run away safely. Somebody's also filming it. So there's multiple videos up on Twitter, which I love humiliating these religious fanatics and these religious nuts by knocking their their headgear off. I mean, you got to admire, you know, the bravery. I mean, look, you know, we all here I am talking about stuff and you guys might have radical political positions. And, you know, we all think we're so great. But the reality is our lives are at risk. The reality is nobody is going to put us in jail for what we speak. We can complain the worst that can happen is YouTube might say, you're on, we're not going to monetize your video. Or really worst case, we're going to kick you off of YouTube. OK, that would be bad. But these people are risking their lives. These people are risking jail. These people are risking everything, everything for freedom. And how many people in the freedom movement, how many people in the Liberty Movement globally are using this as inspiration? I'm inspired. I am motivated. God, if they can, if if if young 15, 16, 17 year old girls can go around knocking headgear off of these moolas, you know, what's to stop us? Nobody's out there stopping us. Biden, Trump, give me a break. So I'm I'm I'm inspired by them. I thank them for the inspiration. There's still people out there willing to really fight for liberty, fight for their own freedom, fight for their own lives. There's still people out there willing to mock religion in the name of liberty. Cool, very cool. All right. I mean, thank you again. I mean, it's been very supportive in the last few weeks and I appreciate it. So yeah, so you will continue to see coverage on this show, on the Iran book show, maybe the only show out there. Well, if there's some Iranian focus shows, but maybe only one of the only shows that has broad topics regularly covering what's going on in Iran, let's hope these demonstrations continues, there's something to cover. But I will not give up on these girls and on the people of Iran and anybody who actually is willing to fight for freedom. I admire and respect and I'm going to give them time on this show for that. So thank you for the support. Two hundred dollars. Really, really appreciate it. Let's see. So that's Ukraine and Iran. Quickly, a quick update on the midterms. I'm sure you're all following the news. You all know this, but they're basically three seats up for grabs still in the Senate in Nevada and Arizona and in Glenn. Thank you. A hundred dollars from Glenn. Really appreciate it. God, you guys are making these morning shows very profitable. I might continue to do them. So yes, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia. Georgia is going to go into a runoff. So there will be an election in a month. I think it's December 6th, some time around then. So we won't know anything about Georgia until then. The Republican walker was leading by a fraction of a percent. But in a runoff, a lot will be determined by turnout. A lot will be determined by who is more passionate, who is more interested, who is more motivated to come out. Obviously, in the in the runoff that happened in 2020, it happened actually happened in January 2021. Democrats were more motivated by Republicans than Republicans, partially because of the BS of Donald Trump telling them not to vote because the election was stolen and all of that crap. Maybe they'll be more motivated this time. We'll see. In Arizona, they're not calling the election, although the Democrat is leading by quite a bit of a Blake Masters. But there are a lot of votes still to count, a lot of votes still to count, about 600,000 votes still to count in Arizona. Most of those votes are expected to be Republican. Whether that is enough to sway the Senate race is hard to tell. It might be very much enough to sway the governor's race. It could still be that Lake wins the governorship. The Republican, Trumpist, Lake wins the governorship in Arizona. There's just probably enough votes out there for her to do it. The gap between her and the Democrat for governor is very small. And again, 30 percent of the vote is still out, but that 30 percent is likely to be heavily tilted towards Republicans. The fact that most of the networks are not calling Arizona on the Senate race, given the size of the gap, suggests that there are a lot of Republican votes still out there. And that is good for Kerry Lake in terms of her ability to win governor. I hope. I mean, my main concern is Secretary of State. That's the person responsible for the elections. I'm hoping the Republican doesn't win that. So so I guess we'll have to wait and see. And then Nevada, Nevada is very close. I think it's highly likely the Republicans win Nevada. The Republican is leading there, but they're still votes out. Nobody has called that race. But I think that that's pretty fair to say that that is likely to be a Republican. So what are the possibilities here? The possibilities are anywhere from if the Republicans win all three Senate's, then they will be 52 to the Senate will be 52 to 48. If Republicans lose lose all three, then the Republicans will have 49, the Democrats will have 51. And again, you can you can do the math. So if the Republicans win Nevada, they'll have 50. And then the Democrats will have to win the other two in order to maintain the 50 50 Senate that exists today. On the other hand, if Republicans win Georgia, as well as Nevada Republicans, well, I 51. It's interesting that my prediction was Republicans winning 51 to 49 and maybe 52 to 49 and that they would win the House 230. It's really interesting that the numbers are coming very close to my prediction. It's likely Republicans will have 51 to 52 senators. And it's likely that the Republicans will have some way between 220. Probably closer to 225 and 230. They probably won't make the 230, but they'll do some way between around 225. So my predictions turned out pretty good for kind of an amateur when it comes to these kind of political things. And it turned out, as I said yesterday, to be about as good as it could be, because I think that the clear message that electorates sent out there was, in a sense, an anti-Trump, anti-Trump like anti-Trump, like message, you know, to the Republican Party, get your act together. You're not going to get a wave. You're not going to get a tsunami as long as you field candidates that are Trumpist, which, of course, brings us to Trump and we'll cover this quickly. Trump is freaking out. You can see that on his tweets on his truth network. He's freaking out because the Santas did so well and always highlighted, you know, you know, really focused on on on Trump. The New York Post has been since the last couple of days has been raving about Ron DeSantis has been calling Ron DeSantis the real leader in the Republican Party. It's been pushing a Ron DeSantis centered focus. And from every indication, Donald Trump is completely flipping out over this and is attacking, brutally attacking the Santas and is is is generally attacking the New York Post. They've turned against him. Or he perceives it as a turn against him because they're supporting somebody else. He is ready to, you know, Trump never has gloves on, but he is ready to go out swinging and full on attack on anybody. I think he was going to declare that they're running for president. You know, we will see on it looks like next week, Trump himself will declare that he is running. I don't expect other Republicans to declare until early 2023. But it is going to be brutal. It's going to be brutal. Any Republican who runs against Trump is going to get is, you know, Trump is going to take it all out on them to hell with if this destroys the party to hell with everything else. This is he's going to this is a scorched earth campaign from Trump. If if he if he announces, I hope that this kind of behavior from Trump will turn people away from him will actually show finally show people what he really is about and what he really cares about, which is kind of his narcissism. And and and that that people like DeSantis and others will have the guts to actually stand up to Trump and and run. It's interesting that the day he he's declaring his intentions November 15th in five days is also the day Mike Pence is coming out with his new book. So the new book Trump chose the date purposefully to take the headlines away from Pence away from Pence publication of his book to focus them on Trump. So yeah, I mean, not to say Trump can't win, but it, you know, I said, I said, hopefully this behavior will reveal to people what he really is. But this was a real blow to Trump and Trump might be the front runner, but Trump will lose a general election. I think I think what these midterms have shown is that the end of the day, the American people will not talk what are not just going to be willing to go with whatever Trump says. I mean, look at Pennsylvania. If if Oz couldn't win against against Federman, who was a pretty weak candidate, then can Trump win Pennsylvania? Really? Look what happened to the Governor Toriel candidate in Pennsylvania. He got crushed. He didn't just lose. He got crushed in a in a state that is that, you know, could go Republican pretty easily. So I don't think I don't think Trump can win the presidency. Maybe that's a good thing. Maybe maybe my argument about divided government would suggest what we need is Republicans to hold the Senate in the House in 2024 and for some Democrat to win the presidency. A Democrat who won't be able to do anything because of a Republican House and Senate. And we'll get the kind of divided government. I've always been an advocate for the real risk is, of course, Republicans lose the House and Senate and the presidency. And we get another two at least two years of Democratic dominance. And that's that is painful, as we've seen with Biden. OK, my last quick comment and then I'll take the Super Chat questions. There are a few Super Chat questions. And that is inflation numbers came in today below expectations. The market is going through the roof. They're expecting now that the Fed will slow down interest rate raises. I think if the Fed does slow down interest rate raises, there's a real risk of inflation picking up again. I don't think this is the end of inflation. I don't think this is the last we've heard about it. It very much looks like what happened in the 70s. Inflation mitigates itself a little bit and then and then gets reborn. You know, but we will see, you know, the Fed is doing a lot to suck money out of the economy. But I still don't think that without a real recession, that we can get out of this inflationary trend and without some real reforms at the government level, including some constraints on spending. So it's still to be seen. But the market is responding very, very positively, obviously. And and inflation numbers did come in still at a high rate, 0.4 percent a month, you know, extrapolate that over a year. That's that's around that's just over 5 percent inflation annually. That's the high inflation rate well above the 2 percent that the Fed wants. So I still predict that the Fed will come out with a 75 basis point increase in interest rates next time. But we will see if they could cut it back to 50 basis points. All right, let us let's see. Let's see on quick superchats and then we'll call it a day. I have to run to give a talk at Akron University at the Law School for the Federal Society. So have to have to run over there. All right, Michael says gun control is a losing issue for Democrats and abortion is a losing issue for Republicans. Are you overall happy about the outcome from yesterday? Yes, I am quite happy of the outcome from yesterday. I think it was about the best we could expect. I would like the outcome in the Senate to be 50 50 or at most 51. I'd like Masters to lose in Arizona, you know, and then I'd like Republicans to win in Nevada. And then I care less about I care less about Georgia. I think if Georgia Republicans win, it's good because then it can stop judicial nominations at the federal courts by the Democrats. Remember, the Senate controls judicial nominations. It does not need the House. So Democrats 50 50 and then they have a vice president breaking the tie. They can nominate they can make judicial nominations. Remember that Republicans did away with a filibuster for judicial nominations. All Democrats need is 51 votes that help Trump get a lot of Republicans onto the federal courts. But it'll it'll also help Democrats get a lot if it's 50 50 and they did in the first two years. So we'll see how that pans out, but I'm happy about that. I'm happy the Republicans took the House, but I'm particularly happy that Republicans took the House by such a small margin. So it's a signal that that not all is well that Republicans are not being supported overwhelmingly by the American public. And and I think that's a good signal to send a Republican Party so that they move on again my perspective so that they move on from Trump. All right. Michael Ozza asks, did you see Ben Shapiro attacking Trump and endorsing dissenters for 2024? I did not. I'm glad to hear it. I think I think Ben Shapiro doing that. If you really attack Trump and I'm curious what he said about Trump, but if you really attack Trump, then that's a good sign because Ben Shapiro wouldn't do that unless he had a sense from his constituency, from his listeners that that was acceptable to do, that that was OK to do. I'd like to see more media types, maybe on Fox, maybe elsewhere, who have been supportive of Trump. I'd like to see more people move away from Trump. You know, and again, I'm not necessarily a fan of dissenters, you know, I'm right now. My priority is to is to make sure Trump does not is not the Republican nominee and that Trump does not win the presidency ever again. And it is discredited as much as possible. That whole perspective of the Republican Party gets demolished. So having Ben Shapiro. Finally, I thought Ben Shapiro was pretty wimpy over the last six years for not going after Trump as much as I think he believed. I think he's always been anti Trump deep down. I wish he'd been more vocal about it. Maybe he'd be more vocal. He would have lost his audience. So good to see, good to see. Michael also says has Catholicism prevented the enlightenment from taking hold in South America. Why is Catholic mysticism so much stronger there than in Europe and North America? I think because mysticism generally is more common in South America. I think it a I think it's primarily because because of the influence of the German romantic philosophers in South America. If you think about it, South America has had no as had very little impact from the Anglo-Saxon philosophers primarily because the Spanish and Portuguese influence over there. So most of the influences being French post enlightenment or so in post enlightenment and then German philosophers. And as a consequence, they have been less respectful of the individual but also more importantly a less respectful of reason and therefore haven't really had a secular pro reason pushback against Catholicism. So and Catholicism is well entrenched in South America. Although that's changing evangelical Christianity is on the rise. Bolsonaro and Brazil very much appeal to the evangelicals in Brazil. And there's evangelical Christianity. But Christianity generally is very popular over there. I think that's consistent with the general mysticism. A lot more to say about Catholicism in this context, but we'll leave that for another show because it's interesting that the National Conservatism and more importantly the integration list, the common good conservatives that are on the rise intellectually and on the right are all Catholics, which is I think fascinating. But we'll talk about that another time. All right. Brie says the temptation of a weak Russia may lead to invasion of selling nukes to bad actors. Russia falling apart is the worst possible scenario. I don't think so. I don't think that's actually the case. I think Russian falling apart is a good scenario. I think that selling nukes to bad actors is something that can be dealt with. And at the end of the day, not clear that Russia has a strong incentive for that as it falls apart. I actually believe the weakening of Russia is good. Russia is going to get weakened anyway. Again, demographics play a big role in it. Economics play a big role in it. And authoritarianism plays a big role in it. But if we get some spin-off caucuses and if we get some minority groups moving away from Russia, that's not a bad deal. I think generally any time an authoritarian gets weakened, that's good, not bad. So yes, you can play up giving nukes to bad actors, but you'd have to say who are those bad actors and what can be done to prevent that from happening. And I think a lot can be done to prevent it from happening. Would the Russian, as they fall apart, give nukes to Iran? Maybe not when you realize that Russia's surround is the whole northern southern border is Muslim and that that is a real threat to them and they have to be very, very careful not to strengthen Muslims around them too much. So I'm not concerned about the breaking up of Russia. I'm happy to see it happen if it happens. Waldron, U.S. is the soul of NATO. EU is too cowardice. U.S. is indispensable for NATO to exist. Fight and protect rising authoritarian threats. We can't risk it. You know, maybe that's true. But again, countries that are not willing to rise up to defend themselves don't deserve to exist. If Europe is not willing to defend itself, it doesn't deserve to exist. I don't see why America needs to sacrifice for the sake of Europe. I am all for NATO being a European alliance to defend itself against real threats in Europe against liberty but against freedom. I don't think the United States should be sacrificing treasure and lives for that purpose. So I would see over time it would draw all of the United States from NATO as Germany, UK, the Scandinavian countries, the rich countries in Europe ramp up defense spending and ramp up their willingness and ability to defend themselves. And again, if they're not willing to defend themselves, then I would suggest the United States open up its borders to all the European immigrants who want to escape Europe as Europe descends into suicide. All right, everybody. Thank you again for the superchatters. You know, we did really, really great for a short show. Thank you for the questions. Thank you for listening in these weird hours. We're getting pretty good live attendance given the hour and given the fact that I'm not announcing these shows much in advance. And yeah, don't forget to like before you leave. Press that like button. That again helps with the algorithm. We should have double the number of likes. So make sure before you leave today to press the like button. Help with the algorithms. It helps us spread the news. And by the way, because of my election show yesterday, because of what I said in the election show yesterday, I lost quite a few subscribers. So we're now under 34,000 because of the subscribers are lost. So like to help us promote this. And don't forget to let your friends know. And if you're not a subscriber to the show, please subscribe. We need to get the number back up to 34 and we need to march on to 35 and ultimately to 50,000 soon. So thank you, everybody. And I will, I will see you soon. Not exactly when the next show will be, but as you can see, I'm winging it and trying to do as many as we can.