 Hello and welcome to the CMC markets Monday weekly webinar with myself market analyst David Madden today's date is Monday the 13th of November at the time is just gone 1215 and as always just before we actually kick off our webinars what we're going to do is just leave the risk warnings on screen for you guys to have a quick read of that it's very straightforward and essentially states anything that is stated or that goes on in this webinar is just merely my digital commentaries and observations from myself and not should be construed as explicit investment advice or trading advice from the CMC markets it's all it's all fairly straightforward and fairly fairly short bit of information for you on the screens there to have a quick read of that it'll keep my compliance department quite happy and they said this would be out of the way wrapped up in a couple in a winter so it's time even less and then we can track home with the actual webinar itself now that we actually have the webinar of the risk warning out of the way we can actually just focus on what it's all about the actual webinar itself quick front run down of what's been going on in the financial markets the big news the big story of the last few days there's a report going around that there are up to 40 British conservative MPs that are looking to build a case of no confidence against Prime Minister Theresa May and this has rattled rattled the financial markets and it certainly spooked the British pound the pound is off nearly six tenths of a percent versus the both both the British both both the euro and the US dollar so the initial sell-off in the initial sell-off in the British pound was assisting the thoughts he was under at some point but those gains have seemed to be actually turned over on themselves in the eurozone equity markets are firmly in the red in the continental Europe there's been a continuation of the kind of weakness that we've seen essentially ever since last Thursday the major sell-off is on Japan overnight last Thursday really kind of rattled global equity markets obviously markets like the Dax Germany the Cac and France were before that we're at all time highs we saw all time highs US indices last week and then of course we then we see a scenario of a sudden and sharp sell-off in Japan and all of a sudden everything is quite nervous equity markets have had a broadly speaking of a tremendous polish run the last number of months they survived made what would have been major hiccups such as the Catalan crisis such as the North Korean crisis but it still went down to create record highs so traders are using this kind of as a sign of actually just getting out of the market I'll take a quick look now at the what's going on in the major events of the week ahead we've quite a few items in terms of corporate economic indicators and a few corporate indicators as well for those of you that don't know where this is located if you go to the CMC markets website under new to the analysis this is here is where our updates get posted on a daily basis under the filter by go to the third option down with the outlook and you see here the update we commencing the 13th of November so this is this is the sort of the highlights of what to look out for tomorrow and Tuesday we have early hours of Tuesday morning we've an update from China and I get industrial production fixed asset investment and retail sales also when Tuesday what we have is we have the UK see guy reading C behind in the UK is currently a 3% high inflation is obviously going to keep putting pressure on the bank of England but it's a very dovish hope you've had a very dovish rate like you have to the bank of England only about only about 10 days ago so as soon as you see signs of relations skyrocketing the bank of England probably won't be looking to move their rate their interest rates anytime soon as they come towards the end of 2018 so for the next rate hike from Bank of England adding flash what we also have out on Wednesday is US CPI US CPI is obviously a big one to watch out for CPI in the US is actually slightly ahead of the Fed's target 2% it's going to 2.2% but we actually look at the correlation it's tripping out commodity prices so there's energy it's only 1.7% so sort of an indication that demand isn't as high as it actually is it's practically down to the to the turnaround in commodity prices what we also have coming out during the week next week is we have unemployment data from the UK and in the same report we also have wage earnings from the UK and I should suspect the wage earnings is going to be the big one to watch out for unemployment in the UK is a multi decade lows more jobs being created with some politicians love talking about but are British workers actually getting a decent increase in the wages I haven't really seen any evidence of that following up it's almost like employers are just happy to create jobs or employees are happy to accept jobs there's no real decent rise in actual wages that low real wages because bear in mind high inflation erodes the value of the money in your pocket in terms of corporate events to watch out for we do as always a lot of corporate act corporate reporting action corporate reporting events but the big one to watch out for this week about Thursday on Thursday Royal Mail and also British land scrolling down here we can take a quick through other companies that have numbers out tomorrow we have a quarterly update from Home Depot in the US we have half your numbers up and land securities and Tuesday UK company vote a phone also reporting their half your figures out on Tuesday scrolling down here to Wednesday Cisco systems Q1 numbers from the United States target 34 numbers coming out of the United States scrolling down here we have three I group in the UK of half your numbers coming out of the half your update from invest tech and the clothing crowd of the gap mentioned best at Best Buy reporting figures as well and Foot Locker and Apocambi and Fitch have not a third word numbers out coming from the United States of America as always with the structure of the webinar I want to the major markets as any markets I haven't covered and let me have a look at feel free to shout out as I mentioned the footsie had a positive start to the morning but then that quickly turned over and it kind of fell in line with the rest of what's going on in Europe first thing you notice is that the footsie 100 after didn't quite get to us all the time high we got near enough it only at the beginning of the month came off here broke down through broke below this trend line support was in place from late September was this this main active persistence here this area here just shy of 7500 traded down here notice how it's just currently training at 7,424 which is basically effectively the low from October so we're at a potential crucial point here on the footsie 100 so sure you have a size would break below the current level of 7,424 we could be heading back down towards the Turkey moving average which comes into play just south of 7,390 and if you go below that metric the next big area to watch out for would be 7,300 should we retake this move back above this trend line here let's watch out for to the upside could be the October high lot of consolidation in around the 7,560 level and then beyond that looking up towards 7,600 itself take a look now what's going on in the German market so the German market after getting a record high not too long ago quickly turned over on itself we should record high here turned over on itself quite sharply filled this gap here remember one of the old myths about gaps that they're always filled but not always filled that's a myth they are often filled on this instance they're filled and I would appear the market is heading south aggressively as the markets pushing lower here we can see the look at the MACD indicator down here on the histogram we can see how the momentum was previously positive and I'll swung to the negative so the rate of setting of pressure is actually on the right so this downward move here has been confirmed by the increase in negative momentum but also could suggest we haven't seen any signs of setting of pressure decline as of yet so we could even head back down towards the October lows of in around this region here which comes into play just south of 12,992,893 another level to watch out for is the late September high here of 12,847 so we could see a move back down towards this direction here on the DAX on the German 30 and even if we go any further south we could be looking back down towards this level here which comes into play at 12,705 from the combination of both late September high and also going to be alone at this count here from the very end of September but bearing in mind seeing as we've had a wider upward trend over the months and 2017 has been in place we could be if you do move back north again we could be looking towards the beginning of this gap here back up towards 13,256 and then north of that heading back up towards 13,400 a quick look now what's going on in the French market on that two December where by the market went down to create an all-time high at the end of last month that has been very quickly turning over on itself notice how the MACD Histogram almost confirms the move both the positive move as the market was moving up to all-time highs we could see the Histogram was in positive territory positive momentum was increasing so it would be more confident that it would last as you saw here but the sideways move and the price positive momentum starts to decline ever so slightly and then of course you see the buyers ran out of steam and now quickly the bears are in control and the bears are actually getting momentum so as the market is aggressively moving lower we're seeing a sharp increase in negative momentum so once again we're seeing no signs of setting pressure net up so this move south could even bring us back down towards the water tank moving average here which comes into play at 5,245 or even possibly down to the turning moving average at 5,186 but bearing in mind the wider trend for the last few months has been to the upside so if we do move back up north again we could be heading back up towards this area here 7,475 or 80 and then north of that the record high 5,535 US markets have also given up some of the ground but bearing in mind they've been particularly strong the last number of months so as you can see on the US markets it's first thing you notice in the Dow Jones US 30 solid upward trend we're seeing a bit of a curtail off here in price it's put to be fair a bit of a pullback, bit of a profit taking session it's hardly a surprise if we do move continue to move south we may find support in around here at 23,250 around this level here or even south if we move continue to move south again we could even find some support in at 23,000 itself and it's only kind of a sizable correction where we potentially see the market head all the way back to the fifth of the moving average at 22,800 in around that price area here as you can see the market was pushing higher and higher and this is one of the reasons why I actually like to keep an eye on the MACD indicator as the market was moving higher here we could see a steady increase and positive momentum then we see positive momentum fade and actually turn negative all the while the market is going on pushing higher that's what you would call divergence the market's pushing higher yet momentum is actually going to be swung into the negative territory and actually increasing that could be a sign we may see a bit of a correction so that's why I said we could even go down as far as low potentially as the 50-day moving average because bearing in mind just south of the 50-day moving average there's a support here in August and September and then looking back up to the upside it should be to the wider upper trend resume we're heading back up towards the November high here north of 23,600 and then of course it is looking towards big figures 23,700,800 and so on the S&P 500 the USXXPX 500 as we call it here it looks fairly similar similar deal again market's at a low time high only last week and that was in the market actually trade a bit lower but I haven't seen any size of the downside as of yet but bearing in mind the histogram here on the MACD indicator is in negative territory so in terms of momentum it's certainly with the sellers at the moment even though we haven't seen it kind of in terms of price wise a major move to the south so if you do see any kind of further setting of pressure we may find some support in around this area here at 2,560 on these levels in around here at 2,544 which are too far away from the 50-day moving average at 22,538 notice how the market it even actually gets low as the 50-day moving average but buying pressure came into play just north of it so we could see a repeat situation here as you did back in September and then obviously to the upside traders will be looking towards 2,600,610,620 so on and so forth now what we're coming on to now is the gold market and we've talked a lot about how equity markets have been selling off and gold is your classic flight to quality instrument whether people are uncertain about what's going on potential turmoil in the world or an excess out of equities you often see corresponding money being pushed into gold now we have seen money being pushed into gold gold's a relatively small amount today but to be honest gold's been a bit of a boring market the last number of months yes I will do the Spanish 35 in a second absolutely I'll come out of that in a second after I cover gold gold has been for whatever reason trading sideways and it's almost like a magnet to the 100-day moving average 100-day moving average in gold it's now at 12.79 and as you can see here for the last few weeks we haven't really moved away to $10 higher or lower even that from gold there's very much a sideways move it's almost like we're kind of cushioned in between the 50-day moving average to the top side and the 200-day moving average to the downside so what we could be looking at is if it's range bound trading bearing in mind it hasn't really moved away a whole lot from the 100-day moving average but if we do get a break we could be looking at a break if we take out the 50-day moving average that could be a sign that the market is breaking to the upside should we go north of the 50-day moving average at 12.92 the next potential level would be the October high of 13.06 and then 13.06 heading back up towards 13.16, 13.34 levels in around here to the downside we have the 200-day moving average it's coming to play at 12.63 this level may act as support or just south of it the October low at 12.61 will be the October low and if we move south of 12.61 we may find support consolidation in this part of the region here which comes into play around the 12.30 region but like I said gold has been largely range bound the last number of weeks and months take a look now what's going on in the Spanish 35 obviously the political rumblings are still going on within Spain and Catalonia we have a general election only next month we have an election next month and that's obviously going to be in focus when it comes around as you can see here this downward channel that the Spanish 35, the Ibex 35 was in a long time before the situation in Catalonia kicked off remember it was Sunday the 1st of October that was actually a referendum and if you look here this is the major reaction to the downward move the market successfully snapped out of the downward trend what do you know the market has given up its gains and it's now back within the kind of negative downward channel so that bullish sentiment on the Spanish 35 was short lived as the market was pushing higher that was confirmed by a steady increase in positive momentum and then of course the market turned over on itself and now we're squarely in negative momentum turns so the pressure is with the sellers notice how here we're now back to a level not seen since early October we're talking about a five or six week low so that tells you all you need to know about the direction what's been going on in the Spain 35 should we continue this kind of downward trend we could be looking at testing the October low which comes to play at 9,866 and then south of that head down towards 9,000 head down towards 9,700 or possibly even this area here which would be 9,637 from actually back from the highs of February this year any moves higher in the Spain 35 may find resistance but already this kind of the trend line resistance which was in play throughout the summertime but also notice how the fifth day moving average this blue line here acts as resistance on a number of occasions in September and then of course it's operation it's duty as it were actually going to flipped around and previously acted as resistance and acted as support and once the support line was broken it now may potentially act as resistance yet again so moves higher in the Spain 35 could encounter resistance at 10,262 and then north of that potentially again moving average so another potential resistance point would be in around here which comes into play around 10,367 taking a look now at the oil markets which have been quite even though we are trading a bit lower since the Friday close nonetheless they have been in quite decent shape so the first thing I'll show you here on the Brent chart is that this is the weekly chart that I'm looking at Brent closed clearly above the 200 week moving average now Brent oil hasn't closed above this 200 week moving average since since June 2014 so over 3 years it's been 3 years since Brent closed above this 200 week moving average and that take us back here that was back in a time period when oil was well above $100 a barrel so I'll give you an idea of how long oil has been in a downward state if it's actually been it's been several years since Brent oil has actually been trading above this 200 week moving average so while it remains above this 200 week moving average that could be a bullish indicator and it could be signed as an upward trend that it's been in for a few months now could be here to stay the 200 week moving average comes into play at $62.50 potentially at $11 support no one says the market was pushing higher here from June onwards and we can see a steady increase on the positive momentum so the buying pressure so the pressure is with the buyers but as always on the weekly on the daily chart you can get a more clear cut example of an upward trend creating a series of higher highs and higher lows all the way along we've written the high here so we may see a bit of a pullback or a correction we could potentially see a pullback down towards $62 $61 or somewhere in the $63 mark it's been fairly clear we've had some sizable pullbacks when the old market has turned around but bearing in mind the upward trend has been in place for a number of months so we do see a pullback potential areas at $62, $61 and even down from the September high of $59 and $0.51 and then of course to the upside we're looking towards $65 $66, $67 and so forth WTI looks reasonably similar but WTI hasn't gotten to its 200 week moving average but given that Brent has already gotten there it could be at this point now as a magnet so WTI last weekend is highest level in about 28 months we've given back some of the gains this week notice of power on the MACD histogram momentum is clearly on the positive side we're not too far away we're currently trading at $56.75 $58.40 roughly where the 200 week moving average comes into play so that could be the next target to watch out for to the upside should we go north of that then the psychologically important $60 would potentially be the next level to keep an eye on same estimation again buying the dip has been a popular strategy with oil traders for the last number of months it's been a fairly clear upward trend since June series of higher highs and higher lows bearing in mind we have seen some size of corrections when oil has turned around so just keep that in mind should we move south on WTI this area here at the bottom of this candle at the top of this candle in around $55.80 $1.75 this could be one potential area for we may see some buyers enter the fold in around here or perhaps even this price action here is a lot of consolidation in around here which comes into play at $54.63 and then south of that again at $53.56 these are areas we potentially see some buyers stepping into the fold because as I mentioned buying on the dip there is a lot of energy on the oil market for the last number of months we're now in mid-October OPEC has a meeting at the end of the month in 30th of November Saudi Arabia and a few other major producers have been putting the feeders out there and extending the coordinated production cut beyond the end of March 2018 deadline taking a look now at some of the major currency pairs we got a few minutes left on this webinar but if there are any markets you want me to cover that I haven't covered feel free to shout out for those of you that have either retuned in in the last few weeks or perhaps have watched the YouTube video because this video will get recorded I'll get put on inside which I'll show you later on on our website and also get put up on YouTube we're talking about how the Euro dollar is in what appears to be a head and shoulder reversal pattern head and shoulder reversal pattern what it is, it effectively when the market push is higher it creates a high here which could be destroyed as the left shoulder then it pulls back to a reaction low pushes on higher here again takes off the previous high this then will be referred to as the head moves lower, pulls back to the reaction low here and notice how the low here the reaction low here after coming off of the new higher high is basically in line with the reaction low from this high here, so that could draw a line across it and your technical analysis refer to that as the neckline and then what does the market do after it gets the reaction low, it pushes higher here again but notice how not only does it not take out this high that was created here it sort of runs on a steam around at the same height as this high here so it acts as a left shoulder head, right shoulder and if you look at the textbook example with the market if it is in a head and shoulder reversal pattern what it could do then is if the market breaks below this area here called the neckline which is kind of a line across with the two reaction lows it often goes up and retest that line before potentially moving south again, so we've had a few tests of that line so while the market remains south of the neckline here in around one spot 1670 or maybe even as high as 117 while it remains south of that you can then see a further move to the downside and a kind of classic measurement how do you measure potential price target to the downside from a head and shoulder reversal you take the high from the head here down to the neckline which comes into play in around 1670, 1670 up to 1292 you talk about over 400 pips there and you project that to the downside from the neckline so we could be heading back south of 112 on the Euro versus the US dollar but obviously on the way down the other potential areas of support may come into play such as in around the consolidation from in around here at 114.79 or indeed maturity moving average just south of the 113 level taking a look now what's going on with the British pound obviously I'll have a look at the Aussie dollar and the Kiwi versus the Japanese yen in a couple of in a couple of charts time so even though we have had a fairly decent sell off in the British pound today we draw a trend line from the loads of merch connecting the August low projecting it out here we can see there for most of November the British pound has been trading in and around and in many cases just south of this trend line here that this trend line here also coincides with the one-day moving average and the one-day moving average on the on the on cable the pound versus US dollar actually has a bit of support here in late September and also in a bit of mid-August so with this combination of the one-day moving average and the trend line while we could have why we remain in that broad area why we remain north of the one-thirty mark we could continue to see we could see the wider broadly speaking bullish trend that the pound has been in for about seven or eight months now continue versus the US dollar but that's on the kind of a vital it stays north of the kind of one-thirty mark but if it moves south of one-thirty we could be heading back down towards one-twenty-nine possibly even down as low as one-thirty moving average which comes into play one-twenty-eight spot one-spot-twenty-eight-seventy but if it does manage to kind of hang on to the broad you speak in upper trend that's been in place since March we could be heading back up towards the August high of one-thirty-three-thirty-five and then beyond that up towards this price area here we saw a lot of consolidation in this area in one-spot-thirty-four-fifty-two we'll go over now and take a look at the Euro versus the British pound Euro starting has been relatively range bound the last few weeks trading in a fairly tight range of about a hundred pages almost kind of like locked in between say the one-thirty moving average at the downside and about the fifth-thirty moving average to the upside it does appear that we have said it's north of the fifth-thirty moving average so if we manage to kind of go beyond the one-thirty moving average at zero-spot-eighty-nine-forty-six we can then potentially target to go north of the October highs and target this area here I'd like to see the market go north of zero-spot-ninety-forty-nine before you can become more confident excuse me excuse me I'd like to see the market go north of this mark of this price area here zero-spot-ninety-forty-nine before you become more confident that the upward move is going to last because like I said it's been trading in a range bound the last few months you know kind of broadly speaking zero-spot-ninety-to-the-high and zero-spot-eighty-eight or maybe even maybe zero-spot-eighty-thirty or thirty-twenty to the low but if you do continue in this area let me let you have a support with the play maybe at the two-thirty moving average at zero-spot eight-seven-seventy or even down as low as the November low at zero-spot-eight-seven-thirty-three and then of course if you go south of that that'll be an indication that we've got a further ground to lose head back down towards this area here in around the zero-spot eight-six region take a look now at the US dollar versus Japanese yen even though the dollar versus yen has been declined the last few less week or so the broad move from September upwards is still in place but at the rate as the market is coming off here we can see that negative momentum is on the rise so it could be an indication that this downward move is going to come to an end so the momentum is with the center so we could see further pressure on the dollar versus Japanese yen so we could be heading back down towards one-thirteen we may have the next step with the potential you watch out for could be the fiftieth moving average in one-twelve-spot-thirty-one and then south of that a fraternity moving average at one-eleventh-spot-seventy-six notice how the fraternity moving average kind of acted as a bit of support didn't get too far below it I think this is a lesson in why you shouldn't have your stops too close to the moving average metrics or trend lines at one-thirteen points of support and or resistance because it's quite rare for a market just to hit a precise point and then this turned around you can have scenarios of five or ten or fifteen paper points move north of it or south of it for the market actually properly respects that particular price area so if the wider upward trend has been in place since September on the dollar versus Japanese yen continues at the of one-fourteen-spot-seventy-three will be potentially the next level to watch out for and then beyond that should be looked up towards in around the region of one-fifteen-sixty-two-eleven not seen for quite some time since early 2017 on the dollar versus the Japanese yen I'll have a look now at the Aussie versus the US dollar as for your request very much range bound on the Aussie versus US dollar and keeping an eye on what's going on here it's been sort of trapped between the 30 moving average well let's call that let's call that twice in around zero-spot-seventy-seven it's kind of sort of like the big figure to the upside and then a downside it's not even to the downside of the support line drawn in here at zero-spot-six-two-two-five so it's quite a narrow range and if you like range bound trading which which some traders do it's been in a quite a tight range but obviously if we do see a break out of that range that could be a sign that the sideways move is over and then you should actually kind of adopt to whichever move that the market is heading in because it's sort of a scenario whenever a market remains in a range whenever a market remains in a range the longer it likely is to stay in a range whenever you see a break out of it it can be quite aggressive whichever move, whichever direction that that is in so if we do see a move to the downside it goes south of zero-spot-seventy-seven-six-two-five it could be like an end down towards zero-spot-seventy-seven-six the figure itself and then potential areas of of consolidate potential areas of support making the play in around this this price area this price area area here in around the zero-spot-seventy-seven-five region are down to even the the lows of June in zero-spot-seventy-seven-three seven-three to the upside if you manage to break north of the Trinity moving average at zero-spot-seventy-seven-seven potential potential next-level resistance would be at zero-spot-seventy-seven-seven-three-three and then looking beyond that again up towards the October high just shy of zero-spot-seventy-seven-nine right the last market now I'll look at because we're just five minutes past our time the New Zealand dollar versus the Japanese yen so click on the library this is scrolling back here under currencies go to the bottom the list New Zealand dollar versus the Japanese yen well looking at the high here from early September and also the high here from July it's obviously fairly decent level of resistance here and what appear in the market is could be heading back down towards the August sorry the April low here after quite a decent sell-off here in July market pushed higher couldn't quite get there created another multi-month low here and now we've pushed higher and this may be the beginning of another potential leg lower back down towards south of 76 if you look here how on the market this is one of the reasons why I really like using the MACD histogram MACD indicator while the market was pushing higher here creating multi-month highs all the way along up to this point here you can see that the histogram momentum was clearly in positive territory so it was it was confirming the positive move market was going higher the positive momentum is increasing the momentum is with the buyers and then what do we see the bulls sorry the sellers become in control but yet price is the most important indicator what happens the market actually continues to push higher and creep to multi-month highs but then very quickly finally the kind of pressure builds and the market aggressively sells off and as you can see here as the market was selling off there was a sizable increase in negative momentum so seeing as it is fairly decent we moved to the downside market found support in around this price area which we're actually basically at at the moment at around 70-30 pushed higher here again created the lower low lower high here and if you take this move it's kind of all one here kind of created a lower low in October at a level not seen since May we pushed higher here and it really would appear potentially going to move south again as the market is coming off here we can see on the market histogram positive momentum is slipping so whatever buying pressure is out there is falling and it wasn't that long ago we were at a multi-month low so we could be heading back down towards this area here at 7.7 spot 40 and then if you take off that level we would be heading back down towards the April low which would be income to play at 75 spot 70 but if it do happen we need to kind of break out at least above this price action here at 79.42 the November high to kind of back off the kind of downward trend that has been in since July and then if you go north of that next time you watch out for potentially will be this area here which is also around the 50 moving average at 79 spot 72 that is it in terms of the markets we are going to cover today as I mentioned this video recording of this webinar is going to be on our insight which is on my training platform here on the right to find where insight is go to the market pulse second tab down market insight some of the analysis that are used in today's webinar can also be found on the chart forum chart forum can be found the third option down from the market pulse I talked about economic indicators that are due out later on this week fourth option down the market pulse is our market calendar here gives you a rundown of what economic indicators are coming out what time they are coming out what the forecast is what the previous reading was keep an eye on that because you got some important economic indicators out this week I showed you already whereabouts you can find our news and analysis some of the updates we do get put on insight other ones get put on on the the actual website itself rather than the training platform and lastly let's quickly talk about other webinars that are coming up tonight at 7pm London time we have a seminar an entire seminar is this one here it is Trader Development Program part 2 trade with the precision strategy on Wednesday the 15th of November at 7.30pm London time we have a webinar covering trading on the edge and then of course back to next Monday with us at 12.15pm thank you for your patience have a good trading week thank you for all of us here at CMC Markets I've been Dave Martin thank you very much have a good trading week and good luck