 Welcome to the Tick Mill weekly market outlook for a week commencing the 7th of October with me, Patrick Mullerly. Fedwatchers will be occupied by the stars of another round of inflation tracking and potentially further Fed policy guidance ahead of the October 30th FFMC meeting. September's CPI figures on Thursday will shed further light on this issue. Even if CPI is not the Fed's preferred inflation metric for a lot of reasons, it tends to be reasonably correlated with core PC inflation over time. Therefore any swings in course CPI inform expectations for the Fed's targeted measure. Other releases will include the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Reading for October, June Friday and producer prices that will be a relatively tertiary price signal two days prior to the CPI. This could be an important week for Fed communications. Chair Powell will be a lunch and keynote speaker at the annual meeting of the National Association of Business Economists on Tuesday. The fact that he speaks the day before the FFMC minutes might make them somewhat slow. Powell then speaks again at another Fed listens event in Kansas City on Wednesday. Wednesday's FFMC minutes could carry clues on the path to the next round of communications at the October 30th meeting. These are minutes to the meeting on September the 18th. Recall that the Fed delivered a hawkish cut at the meeting by guiding that it might be done cutting rates while leaving macro forecast intact and statement language little change. The criteria and probability of returning with additional easing may be elaborated upon in the minutes. Nevertheless the minutes might be still in light of more recent deterioration in headline data. What will be followed particularly closely in the minutes will be any guidance on policy tools and the consideration to address short-term funding market pressures and whether they may be introduced at the October meeting. From a technical perspective the donor index duly tested and failed the anticipated resistance point at 99.50. The pullback at the moment has extended down to 98.60. What I'm looking for is a break at the 98.30 level to then open a test of the 97.50 whilst 98.50 supports is the potential that we may retest the current cycle highs at 99.63 with the potential for a double top pattern there. Note that the momentum divergence continues to weigh and has been somewhat addressed in last week's pullback while we're talking about the dollar index. Let's check in with Gold. Gold duly tested our 14.60 support area and this bounce reasonably well. We now trade up to 15.20. Look for any pullbacks now back into the 14.80 area to offer an opportunity to set long positions with bullish reversal patterns to target a test of the 15.80 level. Canadian markets return on Tuesday following Monday's public holiday. Markets will likely be focused on the final countdown towards the October 21st federal elections. The May data point will be housing starts for September released on Tuesday. After a springtime surge in building permit volumes has worked its way through the system, the market seems to have settled into a more stable pace of home building. From a technical perspective, the Canadian dollar has tested up to the 133.60 resistance area as this level continues to act as strong resistance. I'm still looking for a pullback here to retest support down towards the 131.50 level. However, if we do break higher and take out these prior highs at the 133.80 then I'll be looking for a test of the trend line resistance up to 134.70 to offer an excellent opportunity to set short positions with bearish daily reversal patterns confirming and looking for a target then back down towards this 132 area. The world's factories are in trouble and the full culprit is the uncertainty overhanging world trade that is being driven by US trade policy. The updated effects upon European industry will be the focal point in the eurozone this week. So will any expedited EU retaliation against US plans to impose tariffs on imports from the EU by October 18th, failing some sort of possible agreement at a planned meeting between the US and the EU negotiators on October 14th. Germany and Spain on Tuesday, France and Italy on Thursday will update industrial output figures for September. That European economies are more open than the US as measured by trade as a share of GDP and also this China as a top export destination makes it no surprise why their factories have been suffering a notable growth slowdown in this environment. This picture will be completed by an updated export figures for France on Tuesday and then Germany on Thursday. German factory orders for August will be released on Monday and this will inform the degree of further potential weakness in actual output as the entire German industrial complex has suffered a marked slowdown and moved towards contraction over the past 12 months. From a technical perspective, the euro dollar held our support at the 108.85 level and saw a decent rebrand up to trade at 1099. I'm now looking for a test of the 110 resistance, the descending trend line and any pullbacks then back into this 109.50 will offer an opportunity to reload our long positions, ultimately targeting a move up to test the descending trend line resistance at the 111 area. However, no, any failure back below last week's low will be a bearish development, opening a move down to test the monthly S1 at 108.16 and then likely a full test of the descending trend line support down to 107.70. Whilst we're talking about the eurozone, let's check in with the DAX. The DAX traded up to our resistance point that's highlighted in last week's overview and we've pulled back now to the support zone at the 11800 level. As this area contains the pullback, there's the potential still to test up for a move to the 12600 area. However, any failure back below the 11800 early in the week will be a bearish development and suggest that we are likely to trade lower, much lower down to test the 11200 level at support again. Over in the UK, close attention will be paid to ongoing Brexit developments, which will likely overshadow Tuesday's industrial production data and Thursday's export figures, both of which are likely to be weighed by ongoing political uncertainties. From a technical perspective, Sterling has continued to hold the anticipated 122 support. As it does so, there is the potential that we will re-challenge the prior cycle highs up towards 126. However, any failure back below 122 will be a bearish development opening a retest of the 120-20 area as support. In Japan, this week we get updates on labour cash earnings, household spending, core machine orders and machine tool orders, as well as PPI inflation. Expect global manufacturing weakness to continue to impact core and machine tool orders. From a technical perspective, Dolly N pulled back to test the monthly S1 of support down to 10640. As this area contains the pullback, there is the potential now to retest the prior highs at 10850 and break higher to test the 109.59 area's resistance. However, any failure back below the 10650 will be a bearish development opening a test of the midpoint of the channel back down at 10550. To run the week down under in Australia, data includes the NAB business confidence index, Westpac consumer confidence and home loans. Note that the consumer confidence and business confidence data is likely to suggest ongoing slump in demand. As such, we are looking at the support in the Australian dollar that has held at the 6670 area. This could now set the base for us to ultimately challenge the resistance zone up at the major descending trendline resistance at 6915. However, if we can't break back above the 68 area as interim resistance, then it's likely we will roll over, take our prior lows and ultimately test the midpoints of the channel down towards the 6560 area. That concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 7th of October.