 Just to start out with some basic trend structure of the market. This is basically what Stan Weinstein, who here is what Stan Weinstein's book? Hold me a handful. It's really an excellent book. I'm sure you can find it on Amazon UK. It's been out since 1988. This is the book that actually kind of got me hooked on technical analysis because it just made so much sense. He broke the market down and all stocks into four stages. Stage one accumulation, that's where a lot of the US market is right now. And I know I asked Ricardo, what do most people trade? And he gave me some names, but it was mostly, I think he said Dow first, which was really surprised to me, but he was about four, spy and the Nasdaq. So the Nasdaq, I believe, is right now somewhere, possibly right here at that stage one three, breaking into stage two one. And what that simply means is 2022, we were in a downtrend, the bear market. So that's a stage four decline. And in that stage four decline, it kind of starts out a little bit slow. People are still accustomed to buying the dip. They're not selling the losers and that sort of thing. Then bad news starts to hit a little bit in the middle of that stage four. And people go, oh wait, maybe there's a problem with this company. Maybe I should sell some. But then there's other people who are in denial. And then really, the shit hits the fan in stage four three. And that's when we get those waterfall declines. And as they say, all the bad news comes out at the bottom. We get all the bad news. Like when did Facebook start to rally? Facebook started to rally when they started announcing bad news. Everyone hated the metaverse, this Mark Zuckerberg fantasy play land, which may or may not be a thing. But that's where Facebook was six months ago or whatever it is. And it's since doubled. So the stage one accumulation is the process of the older holders getting rid of their stock and newer holders coming in and creating that base. So as the phrase goes, if they don't scare you out in stage four, they'll often wear you out in stage one. And people will see all these false breakouts. We've seen them over and over again. A lot of last year's leaders, stocks that have two or three times had 50, 60, 70% rallies, but then they still go down and make a new low. So as we finally get rid of all that emotional money in the market, like the NASDAQ, now it appears as though we're entering a stage two uptrend, a series of higher highs and higher lows above the longer term moving averages. So that gives us maybe a healthier environment than we've seen in the last 18 months to find good stock trade ideas or to trade the index on the upside. Now the problem is, this isn't a blueprint. What might happen is maybe we're going to break out that first little bump up into that bull's leg and maybe it's just going to completely fall apart and go down to zero. So what's the basis of every single trade we should have? Does anyone know? Maybe I'm not saying it properly. What should be the first thing we think about when we enter a trade? List management. List management is job number one. Just because this is what typically happens as a trend is developing doesn't mean it's going to do that. So we can't get locked into these beliefs. We can look at it and say, well, sure, I don't really want to buy in a downtrend. That's a better environment for shorting. And as long as we're in that stage two uptrend, to me, people will say, Brian, are we in stage two one or stage two two? And you can kind of define it with moving averages and that, but I'm generally going to say, it really doesn't matter. We're in stage two. That's what matters. We're in an environment where it's easier to make money on the long side than it's too short. And then stage three is that distribution. And guess what happened? Where does all the good news come out? Or the majority of the good news? Just the opposite of bad news coming out the bottom. It just doesn't get any more bullish than up there. And then we start to see things like whispers of the Federal Reserve or the ECB raising rates. And then we start to see the market, the bond market, adjusts six months before the Federal Reserve makes money. So we can't be looking at the headlines and thinking we have an edge. That's not where our edge comes from. News and surprises follow the trend. And everyone knows something. It's already discounted, the market to discounting mechanism. It looks to what's forward. So again, in stage one, the accumulation, that's where you want to start. And this could be, just going back to that timeframe, to this slide, this could be one day in one minute chart. Or this could be six years using weekly timeframe. So whatever your timeframe is, you still want to look at the market structurally and say, where are we? Where are the best odds? If we're just turning sideways after a previous decline, well, it's not time to continue to short. We should cover our shorts in here. And we should maybe just avoid the market for a little while till it chops back and forth. But we're going to know that gets later in that stage one. And it's gone sideways for a period of six months, eight months, or two to three hours on a very short term timeframe. Again, the key factor to remember is all technical analysis is fractal. And what that simply means is what works on one timeframe works for every single timeframe. Or you're going to, not works necessarily, but you'll find value in it. So we want to start to, you know, it's, you know, the moving average is starting to flatten out maybe the stock is holding above those. We don't have that pattern of higher highs and higher lows yet. But this is where we want to start to anticipate the price action is going to confirm that we're going to make that first higher high. And if we have a good place to set our stop at the very beginning of that stage two markup, that's where we want to participate in the long. And on the flip side, well, we want to avoid the short, right? So we've covered our short and stage one. Now it's in an uptrend. We don't want to short that market because it's an uptrend. As it's, you know, as it had this rally, let's say for three hours, you know, from, you know, first thing in the morning, it rallies for three hours, then it starts to go sideways and drift and have a little bit of shakeout. Well, that's that day three distribution. That's when the market gets quiet. There's false breakouts, false breakdowns. To me, that's a time to avoid the market. Just say, you know what, the edge isn't there. Part of the reason that I'm still trading after 31, 32 years now is that I've been really good. One of my, one of the key things I can do is look at the market and say, I don't have to participate. A lot of people feel like, Hey, I'm a trader, I need to trade. That's not the way it is. That's not the way you're going to succeed. There's always that temptation, especially newly, you know, as you're newer in your career, you're all going hoe to get out there and, you know, start, you know, punching those buttons, clicking the mouse and getting that action and make some money. And you can say, well, I'm never going to make any money if I'm just sitting here doing nothing. But if you're sitting there doing nothing because you're avoiding losses, you're ahead of 90% of the people out there, I would bet. So we want to just avoid that period if we're long bonus. However, that distribution, we will look at and say, Hey, you know what, the long side, their chance. Now the sellers are slowly taking control. I'm going to anticipate this market turning lower, and I'm going to look through my potential short sale. I'm going to look at this and say, if it breaks that level, that's why I think sellers take control and my stop will go above that prior high. That's my plan. I'm planning in stage one and stage three. It's not just pulling up to the computer. I used to have a chat room years ago, and it would just annoy me so much that people would come in later in the day and they're like, Hey, what's good to buy? It's like, it doesn't work like that. I can't just tell you, you're going to buy something here. You've got to sit here and watch and anticipate. You don't just sit down and start clipping months, anticipate, slow things down a little bit. The market tells you when to do that. And the thing is, if you're uncertain what stage we're in, it most likely means we're in stage one or stage three. And if you're not sure if it's stage one accumulation or stage three markup, my answer is who cares? It doesn't matter. There's no reason to be involved in this market. I'll know if it was stage one, if we break out and go higher. I'll know if it was stage three, if we break down and go lower. But I want to have a reasonable expectation on the bigger timeframes that I'm going to anticipate it will follow through with the bigger trend because the trend once established is more likely to continue than it is to reverse. That's part of doubt theory and the tentative technical analysis. Stage four, we obviously don't want to be involved in the long side. Forget the people that say buy the dip. It's at a discount or whatever. It's in a downtrend. Wait. Let the sellers have their chance, wait it out. As the market goes sideways in stage one again, then you start to watch it. But that's where the money is made in the short side. We participate. We look at the market structurally like this so we can avoid all these emotions. These emotions here, if you're free to take pictures of the slides of some of you out because I'm not going to read this, we'd be here all night if I read everything on here. But this is something that, again, you can feel this even in the very shortest timeframes. This happens to be, I put this together years ago. This is Cisco systems in 2008, 2009, 10, 11. And Cisco still hasn't reached, it cuts those highs from 2008. So they don't always come back. People say, well, stock, it's a good company. It's a well-won, well-managed. It's a good one. It'll always come back. Well, that's absolutely not true. A lot of companies go bankrupt. But we want to avoid this. We want to listen to the message of the market, not our emotions.