 Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you so much for joining. One of the final sessions, of course, at the World Economic Forum, we're headed towards the end, but it's an all-important session. We're talking about Africa's economic outlook this afternoon. My name is Julie Geshiro. I'm a TV host with Citizen TV in Kenya, an entrepreneur with Aramis Media Ltd. And it's a pleasure to be with you today. Our focus this afternoon, and with the help of this esteemed panel, we're going to be looking into trends that will inform Africa's economic outlook for the next 12 months. So let me introduce our panel right next to me is Gozi Okonjo-Iwala. She really doesn't need introduction, but she's the coordinated minister for the economy and the minister of finance in Nigeria. And right next to Gozi, we have the governor of the central bank of Tanzania, Beno Ndulu, seated next to Beno is Anders Borg, who's the minister of finance for Sweden. He's also a member of the Global Agenda Council on the future of government. Next to Borg, we have Lina Mochlochlo, who is the governor and board chairman of the bank of Botswana. And she's a member of the Global Agenda Council on the future of universities. And last but certainly not least, we have Pravin Gordon, who is the minister of finance here in South Africa. Let's give them all please a big hand. Thank you. I should say this is the digital age and we are streaming live. And so let's welcome our audiences as well across the globe. Thank you very much for joining us. We are tweeting with Africa economic outlook. It is so do tweet your thoughts and comments in as well. And so to start us off, because we are in the digital age, I'm going to use a question that came in from Paul Ajayi on Facebook. And he asks, is Africa ready for a changed, improved and enhanced economic outlook? And if yes, what's the first step? Gozzi. I think it's not whether Africa is ready for a changed, improved and enhanced economic outlook. I think Africa is already experiencing a changed, improved and enhanced economic outlook. I think that we always say before we know where we're going, let's look at where we came from. And it looks to me like maybe people are forgetting the doldrums of the 80s and 90s when the continent was known as the failing continent. When nothing was going right, there was no economic growth on the continent, no stable macroeconomic policies. You looked at every indicator and things were not right. We learned a lot from those lost decades and policy makers on the continent have corrected a lot of things and provided a platform that is now providing some growth now, steady growth for over a decade. And it's not just a flash in the pan as many people have been looking to see whether this will fade away. It's been sustained and even during these uncertain global economic times, Africa has managed to sustain this growth. So I think the key question is twofold. One, how do we keep this growing and step it up a bit more? But more importantly, how do we make sure that people are not left out, that the growth does not come with increasing inequality, that we, you know, have growth that really creates jobs? Because we're facing on this continent, severe challenge of inclusion. We're not creating enough jobs for our youth, we also don't have robust safety nets for those at the bottom end of the ladder who have been left behind. So how can we grow, we mustn't stop growing, but how can we share the proceeds so that our youth and our people feel that this growth really works for them? That I think is the key challenge that we have going towards the future. Well, Praveen, let me come to you next with this. Do you agree that already we've achieved quite a bit of growth? I mean, certainly over the past decade, it's been a different story. But let's address the issues that Gozi has raised. How do we keep it going and what about inclusiveness? I agree with my colleague. What Africa has a valuable opportunity to do is not just keep the GDP number going between five and eight or nine. It's about the quality of that GDP growth, firstly. Secondly, there's a very important opportunity, both for Africa and the world, for us to produce, if you like, a new model of growth, which, as Gozi says, is based on inclusivity, which is based on raising the human potential of the African continent, and above all based on creating new economic institutions, both within countries and between countries. Given the fact that we are 54 economies and countries on the African continent, the manner in which over the next probably five years we build regional institutions that can give us higher levels of integration across some of the countries, and where we learn to build synergies and complementarities between us is going to be a very useful challenge for us to actually overcome. And then lastly, we're also the continent that's got to provide answers to sustainability. We have 60 percent of arable land on this continent. We have huge natural resources, and one of the challenges that most countries in Africa still need to overcome is firstly building a fiscal base so that you have less dependence on customs duty, for example, a wider tax base in each of our countries. But linked to that is something that we speak about quietly, but we need to make a lot more noise about, which is the leakage of money from the African continent, which if it remains on this continent will mean that we don't need aid from anyone, that we will have enough resources in this continent. And we have lots of investable capital in this continent as well. And that's a challenge for all of us from all parts of the globe in order to realize some of the dreams that we have for ourselves. Right. You know, the fear is an economic scramble for Africa that leaves the African, indigenous Africans disenfranchised, and something that we need to look at. And let me come to you, Beno, now on this issue. East Africa knew found wealth, an immense amount of interest, just looking at the stability now that is starting to be achieved in Somalia. And of course, just this week, the conference on Somalia held in the UK, with the UK really looking to come in as a big investor and trading partner. What are your thoughts on the next 12 months in terms of Africa's growth? Well, Africa, I think, has three key opportunities. One is certainly based on its natural resource wealth. And we know countries that were fortunate to start exploiting this before, they might have gone through experiences which were not very positive, but they have actually come back. And they are actually reorganizing how to make good use of proceeds from those natural resources. And these are providing also lessons, I think, for the rest of us who are just about to embark on the same journey. And you know, the advantage of late starters is certainly to learn and avoid mistakes. And I think the region is well poised to do that. I think also, very great importance, I believe, one of the key comparative advantage we have is the low labor costs and youthful population. The geese of manufacturing, particularly the intensive manufacturing, I think, are flying west, westwards from East Asia. And I believe they will land in Africa and stay there. And provided we do skills, and we do skills well, we address costs of doing business, and certainly tool ourselves on the innovation side. We'll come back to whether our governments are focusing or our regions are focusing on doing this. Lina, let me come to you now. What are your thoughts, of course, a very rich country, Botswana. What are you seeing happening, and what are your expectations over the next 12 months in terms of Africa's growth? One is filled with tremendous hope with respect to economic growth, not just for Botswana, the subregion, and not just for the continent. But let me just focus a little bit on one aspect. If anyone in this room did not gather support or strength from the fact that the entire continent was able to generate what I would call impressive growth, even during the financial crisis, then we're not hopeful. There is investor confidence, perception about Africa has completely changed for the better. And this is against the background of a whole lot of things, including economic growth that I just mentioned. There is also political stability increasingly in the continent. There is a decrease in civil conflict. If you observe, I have suggested that there is a significant increase to the tune of 60%. So to me, a combination of these factors should be able to give us confidence that we have to force forward. I don't want to leave and mention the fact that we have this abundant discovery of natural resources, not just in East Africa, but also in Mozambique. There is absolutely no doubt that this will flow outside the borders of these countries to an extent where it will reignite economic growth in the entire continent, certainly in the sub-region. And exciting things are happening in the North as well. So to me, I have tremendous hope. There are all sorts of issues that we're grappling with, including some of the factors that Ngozi mentioned earlier. And I have no doubt in my mind that, as we have mentioned earlier, it will be quality growth and inclusive growth. Inclusive in this particular case, I would like to single out women. If you can include women in all aspects that lead to tremendous economic growth, it will triple to double-digit growth, even in areas where we are used to only single-digit growth. Thank you. Thank you, Lina. Let me come to you now, Anders. And next 12 months, it seems to be a very exciting time for the continent. What are you seeing from your perspective from outside of Africa, but also what lessons do you think African can learn, whether positive or negative, from the European experience? Well, after the very nice dinner yesterday, I made one reflection, and there is a huge difference between Africa and Europe. At all the head tables, yesterday there were presidents and leaders and so forth. But David Lipton, the deputy managing director of the IMF, was actually missing. If this would have been a dinner in Europe, the head of the managing director or deputy managing director of IMF would be sitting next to the president, or maybe between the presidents of two countries. And he or she, David or Christine, would have known all of these leaders intimately for the wrong reasons. Because we are today the crisis zone in the world economy. 60% of the loan from IMF is going to Europe. In Africa, IMF is sitting somewhere in the back for good reasons. The countries are doing well. There is a high degree of macroeconomic stability. Depth levels of the public sector is below 40%, 3% deficits. Inflation has come down. East Africa has gone from very high inflation down to more stable and reasonable rates. So I don't want to say that the message is that we shouldn't listen to the IMF, because I think given that the world will be in a difficult place for the next 12 months, Europe will not sort out this problem. Europe will be particularly in the southern part a low growth zone. And I think we shouldn't expect high growth from the southern part of the euro area for quite some time. ECB is actually having a percentage point as their potential growth. So I think we should realize this. And as good as the prospects are for Africa, one should be realizing that the imbalances are dangerous. And I think the fund was actually right when they in their world economic outlook were arguing for rebuilding buffers. The world is a tough place. I mean, financial markets are not always nice. So Africa has done very well in terms of macroeconomic stability, but keep that stability going. And on the other side of the argument, I agree with Previn and the rest on the basic outlook. I think 6%, 7% or even 8% growth for Africa is probably the best forecast for maybe at least the next 5 to 10 year period. So I think one should have a very optimistic baseline scenario. Optimism is great. Before I move away from you, Anders, how would you comment? What would you say on the issue of those who are concerned that there's a lot of investment inflows into the continent and possibly not enough policy or regulation around some of this? What would your comment be on this? Well, I've met so many experts on Africa saying that the countries now are using kind of an Asian strategy for growth. And I must say that I see lack of an Asian strategy here. One part of the Chinese miracle has been that two-thirds of the private sector job that has come is foreign direct investment. That is actually producing goods that is going to be exported out of China into Europe. China is today producing half of all manufacturing goods. So a growth strategy where one is exporting to Europe and to the US and producing in Africa, based on foreign direct investment, not because it's so good in itself but rather because it brings technology, it brings production capacity and it also brings market access back to the home countries. So companies like H&M, IKEA and to take the Swedish ones, but you could also use other European companies, they should come here and start to produce. Right manufacturing is a key part of an Asian growth strategy and not only talking about coming to Nigeria and produce for the Nigerian market but rather come to Tanzania or Ethiopia or South Africa to produce for the Swedish market or for the European markets. Okay. Go see your thoughts on this. Yes. Well, I hope they'll come to Nigeria and produce for the Swedish market as well. But Anders, I wanted to say something a little bit different. Yes. I think it is good to welcome the foreign direct investment and all it brings. And we certainly do that and we are seeing the signs of confidence. But I think that there's a new phenomenon that we're talking about in Africa. And that is one we've seen that emerging markets, companies are really the biggest investors in Africa. But now we're seeing Africa investing in Africa. And that is a new phenomenon which we should thoroughly encourage. And because, as Praveen said, we've got investable resources on this continent, you know, and we just have not been so good at mobilizing it. We are seeing South African companies with the largest investors in the economy are probably the South Africans. And they're making very good returns on that investment, if I may say so. The MTNs, you know, they have seen explosive growth in mobile phones and are making substantial profits. And we are glad because they're also creating jobs. We've seen, you know, shop right game. We've seen I can keep on naming the companies across the board. But we also see Nigerian companies going probably the biggest cement magnet on the continent, Dangote is now in 33 countries on the continent and has just invested $3 billion or more. And it's keeping going. It's investing even in South Africa. We've seen our banks move across the continent from West to East Africa. And our investors are also desirous. So let us look at this phenomenon. I know we focused on FDI all the time, you know, but how about, you know, AIA? AIA, Africa investing in Africa, Praveen, your thoughts on this. And of course, you know, the other question for you, how do you think increased trade and investment with respect to the BRICS economies is going to impact on Africa for the next 12 months? You know, the FDI numbers look good. But I think what we also got to acknowledge is that much of those numbers are going into the resource sector. So part of the challenge, not just for the next year, but for the next probably five years, is how we lay the basis for greater diversification within the African economy. And secondly, it's linked to, if you want to increase into African trade, as some people said in an earlier session, well, each of us has got to produce something which is going to be tradable, and which other countries want to trade in one way or the other. So the question is, where's our comparative advantages? What are we good at producing? And are we going to be able to produce the right quality and quantity at the right kind of cost? And I think African entrepreneurs are beginning to look at those sorts of questions. And of course, H&M and Ikea and so on are welcome to join that band of people who will increase industrialization, who will increase the services industry, which we have a lot to offer there as well. I've met people over the last two days who are interested in bringing research and development investments into the African continent, which I think for the next 10, 15 years is a very important element to attract as well, because it's actually crucial to Africa's future development. And on the BRIC side, there's some interesting trade shifts that are taking place. 50% of global trade today is South-South trade. A couple of years ago, that used to be North-North trade. And so there are what are commonly being called mega trends that are actually emerging, both on the continent and off the continent, that have a significant meaning for us as well. Secondly, when the BRIC summit took place in Durban, one of the things that President Zuma ensured happened is a three to four-hour dialogue between about 15 African leaders representing different regions on the continent and the BRICs leaders that were here, so that they could have an exchange on these questions as well. And ensure that there's a dialogue between BRICs leaders on the one hand and African leaders on the other hand around what has BRICs got to offer and what has Africa got to offer. Amongst the bigger FDI flows into Africa, certainly flows from the BRICs countries as well. And given the picture that Anders is painting about the European environment, he's talking about one year, some in his neighborhood are saying that probably for the next five years, you're going to have less than 1% growth in what is traditionally our market as the African continent. So the time has certainly come, as Zingosi is pointing out, for Africa to start talking about what it's going to do for itself, how is it going to build its internal capacity to trade with itself, how is it going to increase the incomes of the billion people on the African continent so that they become effectively a billion consumers of African goods produced on African soil with partners from elsewhere. And certainly with the rising confidence that we see in Africa, we need to be able to negotiate better terms of trade with the other BRICs partners in the rest of the world as well so that Africans benefit from the dynamics that are unfolding at the moment as well. So overall, I think there's a very optimistic picture that we can look forward to, but we won't be able to capitalize on that picture by folding our arms. There's a lot of hard work to do on the continent in terms of building skills, improving our education system, improving the living standards of our people and ensuring that real inclusivity does operate on the African continent. And Africa has to put its money where its mouth is basically what we're saying, invest in yourself, AIA. Lena, let me come to you now. So lots of optimism expressed. What do you think, though, are the greatest challenges? The greatest challenges, one of them, is that we have to ensure a development of commitment to productivity and competitiveness. There's absolutely no question about it. I can tell you that in Botswana, one of our major problems is, you know, committing to work ethics that enable us to reach from 0.1 to 0.10. Because you have to leapfrog because others have forced ahead. But let me just comment on the point that goes in age. I think she downplayed the role of Nigeria in IAI. There are Nigerian banks and I know it was deliberate that she did that. It's very, it tends to make headlines when multinationals invest in our continent. But when we invest in our own continent, no headlines are made. The financial services from South Africa, for instance, I can tell you that not only have they got a foothold in Botswana, they've been able to take the lion's share of the market, which was initially occupied by British banks. And I'm excited about that. And I don't know why we don't sing and dance about it. Just because they are next door neighbors, we think that they can simply just walk across and take the market share. Literally next door neighbors. So I thought I should just comment on that. And the challenge, of course, is with respect to IAI. A-I-A. A-I-A. I-A. A-I-A. It's intra-Africa investment. OK. I-A-I. That's right. OK. So with respect to that, the challenge is that as we invest in each other's economies, we have to remember that we are going to have to pull resources in order to direct these resources towards infrastructure building to enable mobility of labor, mobility of goods. And I'm quite excited about it because eventually it's not just going to be moving across borders. We will remove these borders because they can actually retard trade amongst and between countries. Right. I think President Uhuru Kenyatta of Kenya speaking earlier at the plenary session seemed very excited about the idea of removing these borders and the union, the possibility of at least a regional union. Well, tell me as a friend what's one of them. Well, let's move on. Beno, just looking at the impact, for instance, of South African investments across the continent. Nigerian investments, we've just been talking about them, across the continent. What are you noting in Tanzania? And also, moving on from that, what do you think are the key sectors that you will be keeping an eye on over the next 12 months? Yeah, in Tanzania, in fact, between 2007 and 2009, the largest investor coming from outside of Tanzania actually was Kenya. It has been for many years. And, you know, mostly, it has been in services. So you would see financial services, communication services. But increasingly now, I think, also into real production. It was mentioned, for example, for the cement. Dangote now also is just starting a huge cement factory in Tanzania. And, of course, breweries. This has been something that has always crossed borders. So there is a lot more that has been going on in this than we had acknowledged before. And I think it is proper to really pay attention to that. It means also, though, that we need to start working seriously on barriers to that movement of capital across our countries. I know in East Africa there has been a bit of preferential sort of treatment now within the region, even before opening completely all doors to outside. But I think we need to do more in terms of capital controls. There is no ones that are there. We need to do more in terms of investing in connectivity so that the region as a whole can really be the basis of flow of most of the goods without too many constraints. And it facilitates. Once you know that you can invest in Tanzania and serve five countries, and easily so. It also, I think, promotes this. So I think it is a trend that is extremely important and positive. And if we can harness the vast amount of idle savings and liquidity in our banks really to start moving more into investment in the region, I think that would be a very big and positive trend. OK. Each of you three sectors, please, that excites you the most over the next 12 months. Maybe I'll start here with Ghazi and go all the way down. Before I come in, could I just pick up on a good point that Anders made, which I think we shouldn't forget. I listened to us. I'm an eternal optimist. We all sound very optimistic. But he made an important point about the vulnerabilities. You know, we are not, economies are not diversified enough, many of us. And I think that's a vulnerability. So I just wanted to say that this issue of building buffers, and I think most of us are aware of it. The biggest buffer of all is to diversify the economy. We have a big opportunity in Nigeria, because we actually have tremendous potential in agriculture, which we neglected for decades. And now we have a terrific plan to do that and create the jobs needed. We need to look at other sectors within our economies to buffer us. And also our fiscal policies need to be strong, because when you depend on a few commodities, then it becomes a problem. So I just wanted to say that much as we are optimistic, we should also recognize our vulnerabilities and make plans now to address those. Just before you start, I see Anders' hand also going off, and I was going to come to him. And we'll come back to those three sectors from each of you. But Anders, you may give us your comment, but also as you do that, we're talking about IAI slash AIA, whichever way you look at it. All this optimism about Africa investing in Africa, what then happens? What do you see happening over the next year with respect to Africa's trading relations with Europe and the US, for instance? Well, I strongly agree with what Ngozi said here. And I think it actually also goes back to the issue of investments, because if one have too much investment, that means normally a current account deficit, that you're basically importing capital, which is good. I mean, a country with a low capital stock should import capital. But it's also dangerous. We know that the Asian countries, our own country, my own country, Sweden, when current account deficits build, you get vulnerabilities. So what Ngozi was saying about savings is very, very important. Higher national savings that is financing part of the capital stock building is an integrated part of also a stable development. Because if you get too much foreign capital, you might get very hot capital. And then you will have some crash in the stock market in Asia, or some asset price bubble in the US going off. And all of a sudden, all of these assets are running away. So management of the balance of payment, I think, is very, very important. And also building up, obviously, through the national savings that the basis for investments. OK. Julie, can I state the fact that, OK, I am for intra-Africa investments. But the fact of the matter is it's going to take us some time for us to loosen trade ties with North America and Europe. Europe continues to be the main dominant destination for Africa's exports. So we will be in the process of diversifying export destinations. I don't think anybody should think that, overnight, we would be able to stop the trade that Africa currently has with the Western countries. OK. So you see the next year being the same, that the ties will remain strong over the year to come. Let's go now to sectors. And this time, I'll start on that end. Provin, three of the sectors, you're keeping an eye on. Just to build, firstly, on what some of the colleagues were saying. I think I'll come to the three very quickly. I think the warnings are very useful. Self-confidence or extra-confidence shouldn't lead to hubris, where we forget that we're actually going to be living in a risky world for a long time to come, just to reinforce that point. The three sectors, there's a lot of talk at WEF about infrastructure in all its many dimensions. And I think the thing to watch over the next 12 months is, can we produce a list of bankable projects? Can we get an implementation machinery agreed upon? And can we have one project for each of the five regions in Africa, which everybody can focus on and say, we've begun the delivery process? The second is, similarly, in respect of industry. Are we establishing new production capabilities? Are we getting a better understanding of what each of us is going to produce in a complementary way rather than overlapping and duplicating and replicating what others are doing? So there's only so much of cement that you can make and use. If all of us are focusing on cement, we're going to be in trouble. And the third is not an economic sector, but it's the degree of political decisiveness that we're going to demonstrate as a continent and as regions in order to create the conditions for some of the things that we are talking about to actually become reality rather than just remain talk. Thank you so much. Lina, you're three. The three things. Well, for me, it's natural resource extraction. It will continue to be the key success factor for the continent. There's no question about it. I can believe at the point about new findings in East Africa as well as Mozambique, if I were to just mention the ones that are within reach of Botswana. And of course, the next one is agriculture. It also will continue to be the dominant sector on which we will have. But allocation of land with respect to commercial and traditional farming, we have to ensure that tensions are millerated because they can stand in the way of progress. The third sector that I'm excited about is services, transport and communications, financial services. They will continue to ensure that Africa makes inroads in the direction of improved economic growth as we move forward. And they will also underpin the activity that we have now seen with respect to IAI. I have to say it slowly because it's an acronym that you say with your mouth open until you finish it. So that's my three areas, sectors that I believe will make a contribution to impressive economic growth. Thank you. Anders, what are you keeping an eye on? What three sectors? Basically, I agree with the points made by both of the previous speaker. I think they basically cut it right. I would only mention, for example, electricity cross-border because I think big electricity investments are transformative, not only in terms of investment, but also in regulatory structure. Iran, the Swedish electricity company Wattenfall, who are producing some 50 terawatts of hydro energy and nuclear energy. The problem with energy investments is that you basically pay a lot, and then you have a low marginal cost and a huge monopoly profit running out of that because the market marginal cost then is normally quite higher than it is for a high drawer for long-term production in, for example, nuclear. That means that you're vulnerable for political risks. Can I do this big $5, $6 billion investment in a plant and then live with it for 20 or 30, 40 years without seeing political risks? So I think there are some good logic why this could be a combination between different states, maybe two or three different states coming together and make the investment together with international community and thereby also creating credibility for the political risk, that yes, this is a viable investment. It has to be ongoing for quite some time and therefore becomes a very, it doesn't have to be high return. It's not 20% return on five years. It might be five years for 20 or 30 years, but you get the political guarantees by also having its transformative effect between the countries. So that could be one thing to think about. Something to keep an eye on, Ben, or your thoughts? Yeah, I agree on agriculture, so I will not belab at the point, but there are two sectors that I really think will make a huge, continue to make a huge difference. One is financial services. And there really is the use of mobile telephony platform for purposes of rolling out financial access. Also, a whole range of new products now are being offered using that platform. Whether you hear about M-Pesa, you hear about a whole range of other innovations around that platform is going to make a big difference as far as financial inclusion is concerned. Second, I really think on the IT investments, which are going to make, I think, a big difference in terms of productivity growth in our countries, mostly organizational, mostly logistical, which is an element that I think has been missing. You can do the infrastructure, but if we don't invest in logistic capacity, you don't get goods from where they're produced to where actually they should be going. And that's logistics is what made Dubai, and I think we should also be keeping an eye on that. OK, thank you so much. Ngozi, you're three. I just wanted to say that I agree with, I think, his Anders and, well, with all the speakers actually on two areas as enablers. Howard, we have to keep an eye on that. We need to generate enough to make things happen on this continent in manufacturing and, in fact, all sectors and for households and financial services. I was going to talk of that as an enabler. Just yesterday we had an exciting launch with MasterCard of Nigeria. We're going to do a pilot of 30 million identity cards with a MasterCard electronic platform on that, which will enable us to be financially inclusive, people who have a payments platform for government, some government payments, et cetera. So this is really going to change the way things are being done. So those are enablers. For me, with some of these enablers in infrastructure, power, and financial services, I think there are three sectors that excite me. One has been mentioned by almost everybody, which is agriculture. I really think that Africa would come out blazing in that sector because we've just got such an advantage and we see investors coming in. But let me mention, you know, two others that may be not really typical. I'm a strong believer in what we call the creative industries. And that is maybe because my country has the third largest film industry in the world. Some say it's now the second after. The second largest, yeah. And it's creating so many jobs. It's created a million indirect jobs, 200,000 jobs, 250 million dollars in value. And we just met with the industry, not to interfere with them, God forbid, because we were not responsible for their success. So at least do no harm, you know? But just to understand, where can government help with intellectual property, with distribution, so that we can enhance? And I see this creating many, many jobs. And since Nigeria is the largest country, if we don't solve our jobs problem, then the numbers on the continent will still look bad. So I'm very excited. And we have so much talent across the continent on these issues. In every African country, it's amazing when you go, the talent you see, the culture you see. And I just feel like we're not harnessing that enough. I see movement there. I also see housing. You know, we're not talking enough. I mean, other countries, do you know? Every month, the US has the Case Schiller Index. They monitor what happens in the housing sector like a hawk, because they see that as a driver of economic growth. Why is that? Because it's linked to so many things. You know, once you get your housing going, you'll get construction. You get carpenters, welders, painters, decorators. However, we have to look at it sensibly. We certainly don't want to go and create a bubble and repeat what happened in the US and even Malaysia in the 1997 crisis, which their financial crisis was actually from the housing sector. But I see it. Look, in my country, we need 2 million units every year. We have a 70 million unit deficit. And we have very few mortgages. So there's a whole opportunity there and across the continent to make this a driver of jobs whilst, at the same time, fulfilling a social need. Absolutely, giving people a dignified life. Everybody wants a roof over their head. And we have to give them the means to do that. Thank you. At this point, I'm going to open it to the floor and take a few questions. If you put your hand up, give us your name. Tell us where your organization. And put your question to the panel, please. Can we have the mic with the lady in the gray jacket? Thank you. Hello, my name is Lola. And I'm from the Global Shippers Hub in Lagos. And I was really excited to hear about the three areas that you are all excited about. But I didn't hear anything at all about ICT infrastructure. And I just wanted to know what role you think that governments can play in terms of ICT infrastructure access to internet. Because there's a lot of growth that anchors on that. Thank you so much. The gentleman over here in the beige jacket, please. Can we have the mic here at the front? Do we have some more mics? No? Yes? OK, could you give it to the gentleman right there? Yes, his hand is up. Thank you. So first with you, go ahead, please. My name is Jaffet O Mojua from the Abu Dhabi Global Shippers. There was an incentive to build Africa's infrastructure by the colonial masters, which was to transport Africa's goods via the borders. So what are we thinking about? Because if we are going to have intra-African trade, we need to build infrastructure for that. Is there any concerted effort or any strategy amongst the government and the corporations to actually build Africa for this purpose? Because we have to move from the 12% trade amongst Africa to, say, even 60% that is it in Europe and other parts of the world. Thank you. Thank you so much for that. The gentleman at the back. And this mic can go to the gentleman on the front row. And then the man, go ahead. Yeah, my name is Gerald Mahinda from Diageo. I'd like to get a comment from Nkosi and Pravin, the finance ministers. Energy is one of the biggest enablers to what development, whether it's China, Latin America, even in the US. And we're talking about infrastructure and cross-border and interdependency. So I'd like to get your views, because I've read a lot about the potential of the hydropower in the DRC. It's in a lot of government session papers. What's stopping a project like that going ahead? Because that will be a key enabler for opening up development in Africa. Thank you so much for that. Just one moment, we'll come back to you. I see the gentleman over there at the back as well. And we will come to these two as well. Thank you. Let's just quickly take the questions that we have. Who wants to address the ICT infrastructure issue? What role can and should governments be playing? Benu, please go ahead. Yeah, well, we definitely have an example in Tanzania. We have just invested in 10,000 kilometers of fiber optic network, which not only connects the country, but also connects with all our five neighbors. And this is including the landlocked countries of Rwanda, Burundi, Zambia, and Malawi. And the thing which the government has done is really just to invest in that, laying out of the physical infrastructure, and then open to various service providers to make good use of that. Just because it's so expensive sometimes to do it purely on a private sector basis, that this is one thing that governments can definitely enable. Play a role. And I think many of them are. Gossi, you wanted to come in here as well? Just a quick comment. I wanted to say that we have a very exciting ice minister for information and communications technology. And with the explosion in mobile phones, we are looking at a whole range of things. But one is the idea of just exciting our young people by making more information available, which can lead them to create all sorts of apps that would really help us with our work. So for instance, she's going to start a competition who can create apps from the budget. We have people putting out the budget. Already some people are doing it, putting out government revenues and payments, putting out all sorts of information, and then saying, OK, how can we make use of this in various ways, even for holding government accountable? So applications of ICT and enabling them just by providing the information is one thing. We also have a small fund that has been created to invest and encourage small ICT. $25 million only she started. But to encourage people, small entrepreneurs to invest. Huge growth area. I think even one of our social innovators here at the WEF is involved in education content on apps and delivered to children. So fascinating area. I'm going to move to the next issue. We talked about the regional infrastructure issue. And why aren't we doing more? I can tell you a lot's been done in East Africa with respect to our roads and our transport networks. You can look into that. But I want to put this to the panel. How much more should we be doing to ensure our regional infrastructure works? And also, I think this is interconnected with a question from Gerald Mahinda, which was in relation to the hydropower that we could derive from our amazing African nation, DRC. Why are we sitting back? Who wants to jump in here? Well, from a South African point of view, but also more generally, I think the energy issue is a key issue for all of us in Africa. Secondly, it shouldn't just be country-based systems. We've also got to look for, ultimately, a continent-wide grid, or at least substantial regional grids. On the Inga project, there's been negotiations and discussions going on for some time. More recently, the South African government has signed an MOU with the DRC government, laying the basis for some movement on this particular front. And I think we've got to settle the Great Lakes area, in a way in which we can actually get progress. And lots of investors have actually expressed interest in coming in to provide the funds for what can turn out to be quite a turning point in the energy story of the African continent. On the infrastructure one, I mean, at this Wef alone, there's been lots of discussions. There's a public-private partnership that over the last year with Wef has built on the NEPAD plans that we have for the continent. We're now at a stage where there are bankable projects available. There's ideas about how the private sector can participate. The only question now is to get an implementation machinery going, as I pointed out earlier. And I think we are very close to that. Certainly, again, from a South African point of view, there's a fair number of investments that take place from the Southern African Development Bank in regional infrastructure. And if you look at the tri-partite free trade area that is being negotiated at the moment, if we can pull that off here, if West Africa can do similar things as well, I think we're establishing trade blocks regionally, which need to be supported by infrastructure, road, rail, et cetera. Lots of plans are on the table. The money is beginning to come on the table. We've got to create a little bit more dynamism in terms of actually on the delivery side. In terms of free movement, there's some good experiments with one-stop border posts that ease the flow of goods. But as long as customs duty, as I said earlier on, remains a key income, I don't think trade is going to move too freely, because there's all sorts of incentives to not allow things to move too freely at the border post. So we've got to solve some of those conundrums. Thank you so much, Lina. Your thoughts on that. Yeah, I mean, I think everybody knows that with respect to ICT and infrastructure, the revolution, telecommunications revolution has demonstrated, certainly with respect to Kenya's and PESA, that it can effectively support the trickle down to low-income and rural dwellers. That is not just the effect of governments investing in ICT and telecommunications. It's also a way of inclusive growth. Some of the people who are not able to access some services which are offered by the center are able to sit back in whatever they are in even in remotest areas of countries and still be able to communicate. I mean, there is very little I could add with respect to infrastructure. The minister has covered all issues. But I couldn't agree more that if we were to continue to want to benefit, I'm speaking in this respect with respect to the Southern African Customs Union. If countries that are members are going to continue to rely on resources from SACU, we're going to continue to slow down the movements of goods and services across borders. So we have to find a way of diversifying and generating income from elsewhere because we want infrastructure to be able to facilitate. What's the point putting great infrastructure between countries if it's not meant to facilitate not just movements of people, but also movements of goods? That is lacking in speed. But you're right, I couldn't agree more. Africa is lagging behind with respect to infrastructure. But sometimes I don't lose hope when I have to drive in the streets of New York City and there are potholes all over the place all the way from the airport to your destination downtown. But I'm not suggesting that we should deteriorate to that extent. I think once we have it, we should also be in a situation that will enable us to maintain it. Thank you, Lena Boak. Please come in. I think the gentleman's question here is a very good question because it gives us also a perspective. I was on a panel today on East Africa in Africa in 2063. And I did some calculations early in the morning on what would happen with trade if we just took East Africa and turned it into the Nordic countries in 2063. If you take Kenya as a starting point, I would guess that they would trade their export to Tanzania should be close to 10% of GDP. Their export to Ethiopia should probably be something like 10% of GDP. Somalia maybe 6, 7. Uganda maybe around 6. Maybe South Africa another 5. Maybe Egypt 5. That would be 50% of GDP in inter-regional trade in that region, which is normal for a developed country which we are hoping that Kenya will be in 2063. This means in terms of infrastructure, an enormous need for roads and EC access and inter-regional trade, which will be the ones that is actually creating the best growth, not the extractive growth, but rather the creative and integrating growth. So I think there is a huge need for connecting the countries with infrastructure also from that perspective. I do have to say with respect to the whole 2063 conversation on social media, a lot of young people are balking at that. And they're saying 2063, I'm like, you know, at least you might be alive. Some of us won't be here. But there's lots of concern about how long it seems to take. Of course, good things take time. But I will bring it to you. What are the low-hanging fruits before we close? And how long do you think we can take to get to a place where we feel we can call ourselves a developed region? So we'll come to that. But we do have a few more questions. Please go ahead. My name's Peter Draper. I'm the Vice-Chair of the Forum's Trade Council and also the South African. So in the spirit of IAT, or intra-Africa trade, I wanted to throw in something slightly left field perhaps. That has to do with the fact that whilst we all support regional integration processes, we all know that it's very difficult to deliver in practice. And so maybe one way to re-energize the process is to think about key bilateral relationships. And I particularly have in mind South Africa and Nigeria. And I'm wondering, is it possible, is it conceivable, to think about a bilateral free trade agreement between the two countries? They could then start to re-energize regional discussions in interesting and perhaps unpredictable ways. Thank you for that. Thank you. The gentleman at the back, please. Question for Mr. Ndulu. My name's Adam Green from the South Africa. I wondered if the oil and gas finds in East Africa how that was affecting conversations about a common currency, whether it was going to make it more difficult. Thank you very much. The lady here at the front. My name is Saran Kaba Jones. I run an NGO focused on delivering access to clean water in Liberia. My question is, we can't talk about Africa's economic outlook without talking about the continent's political landscape. How can we ensure stable political transitions and also overcome religious and ethnic divisions because without stability in regions or sub-regions, economies can't grow and thrive? Thank you for that. Yes, so the gentleman over here, please. And then the one at the back. Thank you. I am Davide Markovic from Muete, Shandong and Hennessy. We sell happiness in the form of champagne and Hennessy. During these two days, of course, I heard a lot about the priority in most of the African countries, in infrastructure, agriculture, et cetera, but I felt a big missing of one big industry that can be very prospective in Africa, which is tourism. You have sun, you have very nice places, very nice beaches, and of course, you can export that for the Sweden. I think in winter they need sun. They can come to take it in Africa. So probably it is one industry that Africa should think, or at least some of the African countries can think for the future. Thank you so much, gentlemen over there. And the other mic can make its way here, please. We will only be able to take two more, so I'll take a lady on this end and a lady on that end. And then we'll have to... Thank you very much. My name is Wadi Ait Hamza. I'm a global shaper from the Rabat Habib, Morocco. And I would like to take the example of my region, the Maghreb. When we talk about the integration, if I give you the number, I'm sure you'll be scared. It represents 1.3% of all the external growth that those countries are exporting. So it's really a shame. But my question to you will be this one. Is it in our region the economy who drives the politics? Who's the politics who's driving the economy? Mm, thank you for that. Please. Go ahead. My name's Dr. Ola Orokinrin and I currently run an air ambulance service in Nigeria. And part of our work is to transfer sick patients from the African region to places in Europe for complex medical procedures. So my question to the board is, nobody actually mentioned healthcare. And I think healthcare has such huge potential. The amount of money that goes from African countries to places like India on healthcare and medical tourism is very huge. So I'm wondering what the panel thinks about investing in healthcare for Africa. And I need to start thinking how soon, depending on the panel's answers, an ambulance will be an ambulance that transfers people from Europe and the Western world to Africa for complex medical procedures. Thank you. A lady on that end, please. Good afternoon. My name is Loretta and I'm a global shaper from the Botswana hub. My question is from Mamohatla. I just wanted to know what more do you think in agriculture can Botswana do? Already we have subsidies being offered in youth grants. We have longer payback periods being given to small-scale and large-scale farmers. And there's already education being offered, which is to promote sustainability. And please, in your response address, also taking into consideration our water supply issues. Thank you. And the final, I'll get a comment from someone in the media. That's mine. Yes, the gentleman at the front whose hand has been up, I apologize for the whole session. Hello, everybody. I'm a global shaper also from Tunisia hub. I have two questions. We heard a lot about South Africa, East Africa, Europe and Western Africa, but not North Africa. We are addressing a lot of things around healthcare systems, education, electricity, also internet penetration. And we think that we have a lot also to exchange with the other parts of the continent. So how do you think that we can make the cultures and we can talk the same language? And the second point was around investment within the continent. Do you think that the investment can be really, can increase if it's not more a problem of finance than a problem of trust and project management? Thank you so much for that. And even looking at the global competitiveness report, you do see that the northern states on the continent are doing a lot more in terms of the very areas that he's touched on. Because of time, we literally have just about 10 minutes before we wind up. So I'm going to ask you, we had quite a lot of comments and questions. If we don't manage to comprehensively address them, I apologize, but the issues have been raised in the minds of everybody, which is fantastic. And Praveen, I'm going to start with you on that end. Kindly respond. We had quite a number of issues raised. Bilateral agreements, the issue of oil and gas fines in East Africa, which I think I will bring to Beno specifically. Political transitions, religious conflicts, tourism should be a focus in many countries it is. We're also talking here about whether economy drives politics or politics drives the economy. What about health care? That's one of the issues raised. What more can Boots want to do and also with respect to the water issues, keeping that in mind? I think, Lena, I'll bring that to you when I come to you. And then the issue of North Africa. And you're all welcome to address any of these issues as we come down. And Praveen, please go ahead. Ms. Draper poses an interesting question, which my colleague from Nigeria and I have long been discussing. So we already have not trade agreements, because that's his specialty, but lots of other agreements that nine agreements signed between our governments when the president of Nigeria came on an official visit earlier in the week. And in the finance area, we have any number of areas that we are trying to cooperate in terms of financial services, job creation, and other forms of innovative areas that we can share knowledge on. In terms of trade, our ministers of trade are discussing how South Africa's experience in terms of the car industry can be transferred to Nigeria in a car industry be developed there. And certainly, I'm sure it's exploring a free trade agreement is something that they will begin to look at. And it's a useful idea. But what we are all committed to as far as South Africa and Nigeria is concerned is a term that my colleague lent to me, which I borrow very easily, is complementarity. And I think for the next 10 years or so, we should not talk too much about competition. How can we complement each other? Because that's what's going to enable us to build successful experiments around the continent. Sharon, your question about religious and ethnic strife. South Africa is a very good example where we've made some of that transition, but some will take many generations to actually take place. And this is certainly one of the soft elements that we need to give attention to. How do you build cohesive nations? How do you create social cohesion amongst ourselves? Because that stability is as important as economic stability or political stability. And even within the continent as a whole, we've got to do a lot of work amongst our citizens in order to build the right levels of understanding and tolerance and goodwill. Because if we don't, we'll be leaving citizens behind while political and economic elites make deals above their heads. And one of the lessons from Europe and elsewhere is take citizens with us when we make changes in the economic field. Don't tell them one story, and then do another thing at the negotiating table. Because then you run into all sorts of difficulties. And the ideas around tourism and health, I think are excellent ideas. There's a bit of health tourism in South Africa that takes place from Europe, but there's a lot more that we could do. And I think the point around tourism is an excellent one that we should have mentioned. Thank you so much, Lina. Yes, let me start with the question that was directed at me because it is a challenge for Botswana. Obviously, you are mentioning two things that don't thrive in an environment of a desert. As you know, our country is three-quarter desert, so we will struggle with our percussion, we will struggle with water. But some significant inroads have already been made. But before I mentioned significant inroads, let me just also indicate that I wanted to mention earlier when I said I'm excited about agriculture, that although African countries should make sure that they develop agriculture for food security, we should know that food security does not necessarily translate into self-sufficiency. Also, not all countries in Africa can be breadbuckets. So this trade issue that we've been talking about is to facilitate trade amongst countries so that those who have the capability and the ability and they've got the geography and weather conditions that enable them to thrive in agriculture should be able to support the other. And the other countries will do the same. With respect to agriculture, you know fully well that there are areas of Botswana which have been designated areas that can be able to fulfill the national requirements of agricultural goods. But Namadenke is a case in point. So for me, I think I'm not too depressed because I'm also keeping at the back of my mind the general weather conditions and Botswana. The same situation can be extended to water. We don't have, in fact, I'm surprised you didn't mention power because that's one of the major deficits. Water is a little bit better. But with respect to water, you know the government is investing tremendously in irrigation of dams, constructing them from the beginning, and those that already exist, they are making huge investments in ensuring that there's water supply. If the heavens don't open us and we don't get drained because we are in desert conditions, there's very little we can do. But we have to do irrigation and construction of dams and do more of it in order to be able to supply water throughout the country, not just in Hebron. Thank you, Elena. Let me just add with respect to investing in health. I would have thought that since the ambulances would only be taking people from their homestead to the airport, if you flew them to Johannesburg to take much less time, and I can assure you that those of us who happen to live closer to South Africa literally walk to the nearest health center in order to get the best health care that you can get. By the way, when I say the best, I'm comparing with the best in the world. Oh, thank you. Thank you for that. Borg, please. Well, let me make two reflections. First of all, political transitions and long-term growth, how can we reach that? Well, I think social cohesion is extremely important then. Political transition where people can accept that they lose an election, political transition in terms that they could have long-term sustainable growth, that is about everybody becoming stakeholders in the society. So the social cohesion is very, very important. And smart cohesive policies based on education, provision of health care, and other things of good quality for low costs, particularly I think education in child care is extremely important. Because if everybody is feeling that they are stakeholders and you're building a kind of an African version of the welfare state, you will have a lot less, much more trust in society, and trust is reducing transaction costs in the economy. So it's also basically, I think, a good economic policy. When it comes to tourism, I'm strongly agree with that. What Africa needs is not one or two kings coming and shooting themselves in the foot. They actually, what Africa needs is broad-based, ordinary peoples that today go to Thailand who come here for their vacation. Maybe one or two million people every year from Germany, Sweden, and other countries coming here for broad-based tourism. Because that's the kind of tourism that creates a lot of jobs. And you need jobs to have the social cohesion. So Africa is extremely nice as a tourist country. It's a tourist continent. But I think the real development can happen when it becomes more ordinary blue-collar and white-collar workers in Europe going here instead of going to Grand Canaria or to Thailand. And they should continue to go to Thailand, too, because it's also a very nice country. I think also maybe we haven't been able to discuss the issue of the protection and preservation of our natural resources. And when it comes to our wildlife, for instance, and our environments, our ecosystems, we haven't been able to discuss that. But I guess that is interlinked with the whole idea of building a thriving tourist industry as well. Thank you, Beno. I'll come to you. We literally have three minutes left, so I'm trying to rush it along. I apologize, Bork, if you wanted to come in with more. Beno, the issue of the oil and gas finds in East Africa and how it affects a common currency. Well, the short of it is that the prospect of becoming rich for any of our partners has not changed our resolve and process of moving towards a common currency. The challenges remain the same as we did, faced them before. We are learning from Europe, so we are not rushing into anything. And essentially, we are also working together in trying to develop a revenue management framework so that we can together do and make good use of revenues from oil and gas. So it's not having any impact in terms of our proceeding towards common currency. Thank you so much, Gossi. Let me come to you. There was the bilateral agreements issue, but also so much more. Please, you have the final word. I have one minute, so I'll leave the bilateral since Ravine has commented. Let me just say quickly the important issue of whether economics drives politics or politics drives economics. Technically, in many places, you should see economics driving politics. And if you can provide people a comfortable standard of living, make sure people are employed game fully and are contributing to society, then those who can do that should presumably be the ones to be elected. But sometimes, politics drives economics on the continent. I don't think we're quite there yet, where people link the fact that, as they say, the economy is stupid most of the time. So I think you are going to see both ways where economics will sometimes drive politics, but also where politics may change the configuration of economics. And that's why we need to build institutions and systems in our countries, so that it doesn't really matter who comes to power. But whatever happens, the country keeps running like Switzerland. Who knows the president of Switzerland? Does anybody know? How many? Yeah, you know, but the country keeps working. Finally, just on North Africa, I feel we should respond to the young global shepherd who made a point. Yes, I think we need to build trust. We are not as familiar with each other. But I think it's also the absence of links. We do not have good transport links, good links with North Africa. And we are beginning to have, like, Royal Air Maroc and others come into our countries. If we could build more links and get more people to people exchanges, and our governments could also work on some of the regional infrastructure, I think that would probably help a lot. And finally, finally, the health care. I couldn't agree more with the lady. I'm very proud of what she said. When are we going to change so that we can provide health care for ourselves and even receive what South Africa is beginning to do? In my country, we have too many people going out for health care. But I just wanted her to know that as a conscious policy, the government is not encouraging the private sector on working with three or four projects where our doctors in the diaspora want to come and build health care systems. And we're trying to link them up with investors who will also work with them. Thank you very much. Thank you all so much. Let's give our panel a big hand, please. I think one simple thing we can take away from Pravin, I think it was, complementarity rather than competition could push Africa forward. And I'm just going to take a tweet as well from ideanomics MEA, Wef Africa Outlook. Women hold the key to developing Africa. What should be done in countries to help gender equality? And we can go away thinking about the role that women and, I suppose, the youth play on this continent and how we're going to spur their growth and, therefore, Africa's growth. Thank you so much for joining us. Enjoy the rest of your final session. Thank you.