 Good morning to CMC Espresso. The German DAX index has proven yesterday that it doesn't yet have the strength to rise above 10,000 points. One would actually also not expect a bull market in stocks when there is an L-shaped recovery in the world economy. We are in a very late stage of the economic cycle. The economic expansion in the US, for example, is 83 months old and already the fourth largest in more than 150 years, and it started to show some signs of aging as corporate profits peak and wage pressures build. It also remains vulnerable to a shock because growth has been so feeble, averaging just around 2% since the last downturn ended in June of 2009. If the next president of the US is not going to have to face a recession, it will be a US record. Lawrence Summers, he is the former US Finance Minister, said that there is a chance for a recession in the US economy the next three years, and this chance and risk is bigger than 50-50, way bigger. Former International Monetary Fund official Desmond Lachman said that the Brexit vote for the UK to leave the European Union, a steeper then anticipated Chinese slowdown and a renewed recession in Japan are among potential developments that could trigger problems in the financial markets and in the world economy in the coming months. Growth is rare, only those companies selling their products mostly in a currency which happens to be weak or relative weak to others, those companies make money, others lose money. Look at Toyota, Toyota said annual net income will probably decline for the first time in five years, as currency swings that had spurred record profits now pose stiff headwinds and that is the strong yen. Net income may drop by 35%. If you look at the Eurozone, then we have a similar weak picture. Despite very low oil prices, despite a very low Euro, despite a post-austerity programs, there is no growth that would deserve the name. What happens when the US economy weakens again and falls into a recession? ECB's Vice President Vito Constancio tells us that the world economy was prey to secular forces that have lowered the long-term growth rates, making it even harder to overcome the deflationary hangover of accumulated debt. It might be the right thing when German Finance Minister Wolfgang Scheuble asked central banks to start finding ways to gradually raise their record low interest rates. At the end of the day, the earnings season was surprisingly strong, yes, but just because expectations were so low. It is a fact that earnings went down in the double digits. That only demonstrates how much the world economy still depends on loose monetary policy. As central banks drive by sight, market moves can anytime fall victim to sudden volatility spikes. That said, the low volatility on Wall Street might be delusive. Should the US Federal Reserve decide to re-engage its path to more normal rates, there might soon be a new thunderstorm coming back to financial markets.