 A few decades ago, space exploration was spurred on by intense rivalries between the United States and the Soviet Union, propelled by the imminent fear that if one side ever relaxed today, the other would be launching missiles tomorrow. But nowadays, it seems that space exploration is spurred on by the ego of billionaires tweeting at each other. But hey, as a lover of space travel, I'll take what I can get. So anyways, massive fortunes and egos aside, let's try to figure out who's gonna be the first to get humans to Mars. Let's start with the obvious. Who are our contenders? As of now, the only government agency in the running is the US's National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Fancy title, but we're just gonna call them NASA for short. As it stands, it doesn't look like any other countries are close. India's space agency is just getting off the ground, both literally and metaphorically. The Russian Roscosmos and the European Space Agency's joint plan to send a rover to Mars next year is facing great concern that it won't be ready in time for launch, and sending a rover is nowhere near the complexity of a manned mission. And the Chinese National Space Agency is busy focusing on its own planned Mars rover launch in 2020. But just because it takes a few billion dollars to fund a space agency, doesn't mean it's gotta be limited to a bunch of bureaucrats. The biggest commercial space organizations are Elon Musk's SpaceX, Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin, United Launch Alliance, Boeing, and a handful of defense contractors who don't seem very interested in peaceful space exploration, so we won't be talking about them much. So, what are all their plans? Well, starting with the OGs, NASA plans to land astronauts in the mid-2030s after sending rovers and base components from 2020 to 2024 to support the Martian landing and do a practice launch sending four astronauts somewhere between Earth and Mars by 2025. SpaceX, the most ambitious of the bunch, hopes to land the first humans on the red planet in 2024, using the Starship and BFR rockets currently in development after a flyby of the moon in 2023. Blue Origin hopes to beat SpaceX there aboard New Glenn, their first orbital rocket in development, but it isn't even scheduled to make its opening debut until 2021. Boeing, ULA, and all the defense contractors aren't as concerned with all-out personal glory and are only making it to Mars if NASA chooses them to carry their astronauts. So why are all these launches planned so many years in advance? Well, you can't just pop off to Mars whenever you want, at least not if you want to do it efficiently. At current rocket speeds, it takes about five to seven months to make it to Mars, launching at a very specific window that lines up the optimal orbits of Earth and Mars. Launching any other time would take a lot longer, requiring more fuel and food and increasing the risk of a cosmic disaster like a solar flare hitting the spacecraft. The trick is that this launch period is very specific. It only comes every two years and only lasts for about three weeks. On top of that, there's only about a one hour period each day that you can launch. Miss that window, either because of a problem with your rocket, or maybe there's just too many clouds in the sky and you have to wait another two years. So the next launch windows are in 2020, when NASA and the Chinese National Space Agency plan on sending their rovers to Mars, 2022, when at least two BFR cargo vehicles are planned to make demonstration landings on Mars, and the first real landing window in 2024. So, who's going to get there first? As the reigning champs of space exploration, NASA has decades of experience in space exploration and pulling off landings on Mars. Let's not forget, they're the only ones to actually land humans on another world, and they did that before most modern computer computation was even invented. But to make it to Mars first, you need determination. During the Cold War, the Soviets provided the driving force, but now there's less motivation, and funding budgets can dry up with each passing administration and be broken down between NASA's numerous missions. To lead in space exploration, you need to be driven. And while NASA has always been driven, the general public that funds it cares a lot less. So while there's a good chance NASA can make its plans to land in the 2030s, that does open up the window for someone to beat them there first. Sadly, that lowers the chance Boeing, ULA, and the private defense firms will land humans first. At least of those three, Boeing, as the largest contractor for the first age of NASA's giant space launch system, is in a better position than the rest to be chosen. Although Blue Origin gets a billion dollars every year in funding from Jeff Bezos selling SOC in Amazon, it has a lot fewer accomplishments than most people realize. It's talked about a lot, but their first commercial orbital rocket, the New Glenn, won't even make its opening launch for another two years. While Blue Origin's New Glenn will likely be a great rocket, far more advanced than what got us to the moon in the 70s, they're basically where SpaceX was in 2008, a decade ago when they were first developing the Falcon 9. At a certain point, it's just too much of a gap to overcome and still be first. Lastly, fueled seemingly by Musk's own determination is SpaceX. I want to show you a graph. On the y-axis, we have the cost per launch. On the x-axis, the maximum payload. In simple terms, the further to the right and the further down a dot is, the better and more cost effective that rocket is. Here is every major rocket launched before 2017. And here are all the ones since 2017. Here is the Delta IV, used by the United Launch Alliance. An Atlas V, developed by Lockheed Mardin. Here is the Russian Soyuz rocket, used by NASA and other space agencies to get humans in cargo to the International Space Station. Now here is the reused Falcon 9 rocket. Obviously, being able to reuse it lowers its launch cost. It's undeniably one of the best rockets on this list. But there's still a handful near it. But way out here, past all the rest, is the Falcon Heavy. No other rocket even comes close. SpaceX has pushed the needle far beyond what has been done and even what is still being done. Elon Musk has even offered to share building details for the Falcon rockets, schematics that most aerospace companies would guard with their lives. Because he says any company trying to copy what their rockets currently are will be left in the dust by the fast pace of their R&D divisions. SpaceX is currently in the development of the Starship, what they hope will be the rocket to carry the first humans to Mars. And with his motivation as CEO, mixed with deep investor pockets, he seems poised to do so. And SpaceX itself is deceptively unprofitable. It makes millions on every launch it makes to send satellites into orbit and restock the ISS. And it has one of the best safety records of any aerospace company. The only reason it looks unprofitable on paper is because it turns around and invests billions into its R&D divisions to keep advancing its rockets. Obviously, it's hard to predict the future, especially for a finish line that looks to be a decade away. Many companies, even high-profile ones, have run out of money long before they could achieve their ambitions. But SpaceX, being privately held, shields them from investors who don't want their money being wasted on something like advancing the human race. So for now, we get to sit back and watch beautiful landings like this. Until one day, we get to see them on Mars.