 discussions but of course they go on tomorrow and so I'm going to invite each of our speakers to reflect perhaps on what they have heard over the last two days in particular whether there's things that we didn't hear and probably that crash turned out. I want to end promptly at six and I want before we end I want to be sure that each of these guys tell us basically the bottom line on what is the what are the chances that we're going to have another blowout in the world rice market in the next two or three years that is what is the probability of another rice crisis similar to what we had in 2007 2008 now you can build up to that answer or you can start out directly these guys run the leading rice model in the world so if anybody knows at least analytically and from the data what's what's going on out there these are the two people who do. Why don't I let Eric start and then Sam finish. Sam represents Eric please. Eric is a professor at the University of Arkansas and with that question the leading expert in the US on the US rice market and one of the two or three leading experts in the world on the world rice market so somebody knows what he's talking about. Let me just update actually the presentation we made yesterday. Things are changing accurately. We're seeing actually a lot of pressure right now on prices since and these are just numbers from August until yesterday this price quotes US export prices of about $160 a million that's in a three month period that's a 40% increase in the US export price in the last three months. A little more modest movement in the type prices of about $50 to $60 and the real prices are going to be about $80 for about 20% increase so you know my sense is that the global rice economy remains a very fragile market. One of the things that I think that was interesting for me that I learned from these conferences is to see how much is going on not easily the global rice market but within a lot of domestic rice markets. You look at the global rice market and actually think of all those sort of add things associated with it that are going to I think keep it as very vulnerable to the kind of price price that we had. There's just the really continuing ongoing market transparency, extensive role of peristals here in Asia, and then I think just I was talking to a fellow during the break and he's talked about just the frequency of extreme weather events that are taking place over the last four or five years compared to 20 or 25 years ago. My sense is that we're starting to see the impacts of climate change and linkages to biofuel out of the markets. All these things I think are really exacerbating and I think what we can see as they move towards stabilizing the global rice market. On the positive side of it, again I wonder how it was very interesting about this symposium and I want to thank Sam for putting this conference together because I know he really brought some very interesting people here to present. But what actually was interesting was the prospects of pushing and moving this global rice economy. I see a lot of variability in the domestic market structures, the growing role of the private sector and investments. I think certainly this disillusion that we're seeing in terms of the post-harvest circumstances of the rise of the supermarket, this I think is a very interesting and important, potentially stabilizing, structural performance change in the domestic markets that is going to have some long run positives for the global market. Longer term, I think you think about the diversification of the Asian diet. I think this is also something that's going to help take away this sort of vapid concern about the fear of associated with shocks to the production systems. And those are main ideas I guess I would say. Part of the role of the panel is that I actually would say something as well. I want to put the paradox on the table here. Listen to Jacob LeMond tell us how much China is spending on its R&D and basic bonds following its agriculture. China's rice economy is a pretty good shape in this year. India is sitting on huge surpluses. Thailand's got 5 million dollars, or 5 million tons of stocks that it doesn't come up to do with. And yeah, the market is really, really nervous. And it's nervous because, think about this, Indonesia needs a million tons of rice. Whoa, that can move the world market even though India, China, and Thailand are also having plenty of rice. There's something clearly wrong with the World Rice Market. It is really messed up. And I would hope that before we all get out of this conference that we at least put on the agenda going forward, how are we going to fix the World Rice Market? What are the steps that it's going to take so that we can actually open it up? I have much more visible price formation. I have much more open trade. How are we going to take those steps? I spent four and a half hours yesterday at the Ministerial Roundtable. And everybody sort of understands the problem, and nobody had an idea on how to move that forward. I have to say, by proposal, the, let's get countries to invest in larger rice reserves, everybody understood that, well, yeah, that would solve the problem, but nobody wants to do it certainly. Nobody wants to finance it. So I come away from the two days at a bit of a loss on what I think is the big agenda question, is fixing the World Rice Market. I understand we need to invest a lot in R&D and get rice productivity up, and that will make the world a lot less nervous, but we've got a very, very nervous world right now on the rice situation, and I'm hoping that maybe we could make progress on that. So that's why two days worth, I'll let Sam finish. Thank you, Peter. Good evening, everybody. I think we are still here. Before I say anything on the rice market, let me just say that thank you all for your lively discussion. I think this one and a half years has been excellent in terms of what we want to achieve. And on the ED and the Asia Congress, we would like to continue this type of forum on the annual basis. Hopefully we are going to do it in the next three years until we have the next ILC. We plan to have other similar things. Hopefully we'll have some answer. We will raise a lot of problems and issues. Hopefully next time we'll have some answer how to fix the market, how to make sure the regional rice reserve will work, that cast a very, in terms of EDB's focus. Hopefully we'll have some answer. But again, I'd like to congratulate all the presenters and the audience in terms of lively participation. Please keep in mind that next year we'll have the meeting somewhere. The location has not been decided. Please prop land and clean the meeting. With that, let me just say that in the last day and a half, I've heard from various people including pictures and many of the people saying that we may have already technology available or we'll be available in the next five years to have the, to include the productivity. But we are not sure whether there will be enabling factors in this kind of policy environment that will be there to make this technology potential realized in the production. I think our next conference will focus more on trying to find solutions into the policy aspect, investment aspect. I didn't hear a lot of solutions in the whole one and a half days I was here. The thing is we don't have the solution. The bottom line is that we don't have the solution there. So hopefully the next second conference will be much more useful in terms of finding a solution. I was proposing cats that ADB and ERIS would jointly post this conference on forum next year somewhere maybe in Mahila or maybe in Delhi or somewhere else. So we'll decide and let you know. Let me talk about pictures first in about rice market. Where do we see the rice price in the next six months or two years? I think this side will appear. I think he put it very rightly. Nobody knows what the price will be tomorrow. Forget about the next six months and two years. And it is not based on fundamentals. He talked about politics, policies, so many other things practice in this rice market. So nobody exactly knows what the price will be. But I think he put it very eloquently saying that we have so much production. And we have so much in the stock. The countries don't know what to do with the stock. At the same time we have a market which is very nervous. The price in last month has gone up $80. It used to take months for price to move by $10. Now it's taking a week for price to move by $10. At the same time we have rice slotting in India. We had a Supreme Court had to intervene a couple of months in India actually warning the government not to procure so much rice because it's slotting outside in the monsoon. They lost so many million tons of rice. Janaya can attest to that. Actually they warned that you need to give this rice to poor people. If you have millions of people dying without food and you have millions of tons of rice sitting in India, UP near the radio station and not in there in the procurement. So it's very ironic. We have one side we have too much rice and please don't know what to do. On the other side we have very enormous market. I have to predict what the price will be. I think the next three months price will go down because I think India has to export somewhere they have to send this rice a few million tons because the new rice is coming in. There is an initial meeting in 30 from the member. I think most likely they will decide that the government is going to sell some from G to G but I think they will still not allow the private sector to export non-passable rice. That's my take. I think market is just waiting for that to happen. I think it's watching what India will do. I think over the long run I think Eric told it correctly that we are Asian consumption pattern where diversified for cattle and conserves of the client. Although it will be said on the extent of diversification but it definitely will be diversified. And he also put in this morning very nice that we really don't know what will happen in Africa. You look at the historical data there is no trend of slowing down. Whether it's going to continue in the future, there is an inflection point in the future we really don't know when this could happen. And he actually told very nicely if the trend continues we might be needing another 100 million tons by 2050. I think that may not happen but that's what the trend is showing that. So we have a lot of uncertainty if you take out the short term situation there and what's going to happen in the future. But bottom line is that we need to improve the productivity. I mean nobody denies that fact. Doesn't matter we diversify, we don't diversify, we know that area is not going to increase, area is most likely to decline and we need to jack up the productivity though. The main concern to 1.2 or 1.3 percent which will keep rice players affordable. And I think as the mayor said I am taking that technology is there but the more important is policy and investment in all level of supply chain. I think that's what our focus should be in the next round of conference sometime in the next up and down. Thank you.