 Hey everyone, this is Dan with another episode of my Moderna and BioNTech videos. The prices of Moderna and BioNTech have been dropping since August. Some people are even saying that the pandemic will be over soon and the world will not need the vaccines anymore. I've looked at the latest data and found a few things that I want to share with you. I will also be talking about my new price targets for the two stocks. Let's get into the details. First I'd like to mention that I'm not a financial advisor. I share my analysis and stock trading strategies for educational and entertainment purposes only. If you want to buy or sell stocks, you should make your own decisions and you should definitely consult with your financial advisors before you do so. Let's continue. Let's recap my price forecast made back on December 19th of 2021 about a month ago. At that time, I predicted that Moderna would be at $370 a share and BioNTech at $400 a share by the end of February 2022. At that time, Moderna closed at $294, BioNTech at $287. As of today, Moderna is at $204 and BioNTech at $196. Both stocks have gone down quite a bit. So what happened? I'll talk about the reasons in the next few minutes. In light of the new developments, will I be setting new price targets? The answer is a resounding yes, and I will explain why. I will also show you my calculations. Let's look at the charts. This is the chart showing the price movements of Moderna and BioNTech since July of 2021. The two lines here on the bottom are SPY and QQQ representing the broad market movement as you can see the market went up by about 5.4% in the last 6 months. Moderna is represented by the candlestick chart and BioNTech by the yellow line. They shot up very quickly in the beginning of August and then peaked and started to drop. At one point they were up 92%. And as of today, Moderna has been down by 21% and BioNTech by 11%. And certainly this is not a pretty picture if you have bought the stocks early on especially around August timeframe. Will the prices recover? That really depends. I will explain why. To understand whether the prices will recover, we need to first understand what's being driving the price movements in the last few months. For example, we have this big dip here and the main reason was because of the announcement of the Merck pills for COVID treatment. Here FDA approved BioNTech for children ages 5 to 11 so that's the positive news although that was already anticipated way ahead of time. Therefore it did not quite move the market. Then we got hit with the news about the Pfizer COVID treatment pills and that took the stock prices down another leg. Here the FDA approved the Moderna booster shots for people 18 years of Asian older so that caused a little short term boost. And then they discovered Omicron at the end of November in South Africa that kicked up the stock prices for a couple of days. And then soon after that it was found that Omicron is not as severe as a Delta variant. The stock prices dropped and since then it's been dropped. Because of this past Thursday, today is Saturday, the Supreme Court blocked the vaccine mandate issued by the Biden government and since that time the prices have been dropping and it will probably continue to drop for a couple of days before it'll have the chance to recover. What will cause the prices of Moderna and BioNTech to recover in the next few weeks? We'll talk about that but it's very important to understand what transpired in the last few months to understand where the prices will be going. If you like what you've seen so far, I'd like to encourage you to click the like, subscribe and notification button so that you will receive notification when I publish my next video. It will also encourage me to make more videos like this in the future. Thank you very much. Let's continue. I'd like to share with you some of the news developments in the last few weeks. This is a news announcement on January 13th about the Supreme Court blocking the Biden administration's COVID vaccine mandate for businesses. That will certainly affect the sales of the vaccines. And then on January 14th, the chairman of Moderna said COVID will become a flu-like endemic in 2022. That means COVID will be fading away from the current situation of being a pandemic and become an endemic starting in 2022. This is a quick summary of the leading vaccines in the world. At this point Pfizer, BioNTech and Moderna still produce the best vaccines to fight against COVID. This is a summary of the various COVID treatments. They are offered by Pfizer, Merck, Gilead, GlaxoSmithKline, Regeneron and Eli Lilly. They are pretty expensive ranging from $700 per treatment course to more than $3,000 per treatment course. These are the second line of defense. However, because of the waning effect of the new variants especially Omicron, a lot of people believe that the pandemic will be fading away and that the world might not be needing the vaccines anymore. And I believe that's a really main driver for the stock prices in the last few weeks. Let's look at the real world data with regard to new COVID cases and death rates. If you look at the United States, most recently there's definitely a huge spike in terms of new cases and that's definitely related to Omicron. However, if you look at the daily death, the number has been picking up a little bit, although it's not nearly as high as the previous peaks. At this point, the deaths are related to infections starting probably three weeks ago, so that'll be just around Christmas time. At that time, we already have Omicron circulating in the United States. So some of the deaths might already be reflecting the Omicron death rate, although some of that might still be delta related. In the next two, three weeks, we will see what a death rate will be coming down as people think it would because a lot of people believe Omicron is not nearly as severe as Delta. But still, death rate at this point in the United States is still very alarming. If you look at the United Kingdom, they had a recent spike that's higher than any other previous spikes, definitely related to Omicron. And if you look at the death rate, it's been climbing up a little bit, although it's not nearly as high as the previous peak. In terms of vaccination rate in the US, 74% of the people received first shot, 62% fully vaccinated, 23% received the booster shot. In the UK, the rates are higher for the first shot and the fully vaccinated people. And for the booster shot, it's pretty impressive at 54%. Much higher than the US, 23% and maybe that's why your death rate here is much lower than the US and also relative to the previous peak. Most likely the most vulnerable people have mostly been vaccinated with the booster shot. Probably that's what's keeping the death rate down. And if you look at Israel, also a peak here with the new cases, much higher peak than the previous peaks, and your death rate has been pretty low. The vaccination rate in Israel is almost as high as the rates in UK. The chart shows the effectiveness of the vaccines. In South Africa, where Omicron was discovered, it peaked about two weeks ago, looks like Omicron has run its course already in South Africa in this fading way. And your death rate climbed up a little bit, but not nearly as high as the previous peaks. And the vaccination rate as far as booster shot is about as high as the US, whereas their full vaccinated population is only 32% compared to US 62%. The data from South Africa does not look too alarming. That's probably one of the reasons why people feel that the pandemic is fading away. Now if we all of a sudden discover a new variant that turns out to be as damaging as Delta or even more damaging in Delta, then the picture will be changed quickly. Of course, I do not wish that to happen to humanity. I've made my profits in Moderna and BioNTech from last year. I'm satisfied with it. If the pandemic is going to fade away and the stock prices continue at the current low levels, I'm okay with it. And I protected myself as I've shared with my Twitter subscribers in the last few weeks. With regard to my trades, we'll cover that in the next few minutes. Worldwide, definitely a big spike with the new cases, but death rate is still pretty high, although not nearly as high as the previous peaks. Again, repeating the pattern from the other countries. As of January 14, there are still 7,872 deaths worldwide and definitely that number is still too high. That means the world will still continue to need the vaccines from Moderna, BioNTech as well as from the other companies. This is a very important piece of information. The Moderna management made a presentation on January 10, 2022. They showed the start. They are saying that the current pandemic is winding down and becoming an endemic possibly in 2022 and beyond. This is a chart showing morbidity, in other words, death as you can see is going down and down and down. And even Moderna management is predicting the pandemic fading away. No wonder why the public is really pushing down the prices of Moderna and BioNTech. With all those pieces of information in mind, let's get into valuation. First of all, let's look at a few news items related to valuation. On November 11, it was reported that the African Union said Moderna was selling the COVID vaccine to them at $7 a shot, which is much less expensive than the price Moderna set for the US government and for you. And that's not surprising because Moderna and BioNTech and other companies have been under a lot of pressure to sell the vaccines to developing nations at a discount. Which is good for humanity. And then it was reported on November 9 that BioNTech management announced that they expected the 2021 revenues to be around 16 billion euros to 17 billion euros. And the two numbers averaged out to be 16.5 billion euros, which translates to 18.8 billion US dollars. I'll be using that number in my calculation. Let's talk that in the back of our minds. And then on November 4, it was reported that Moderna management expected full year 2021 sales between 15 billion and 16 billion dollars and that averaged out to 16.5 billion dollars. And I'll be using that number as well. Also in January 10, Moderna management said it expected the sales of about 18.5 billion dollars from 2022. With all those numbers in the background, let's look at the calculations. From Moderna, I plugged in the numbers I mentioned a few seconds ago, 16.5 billion dollars of revenues for 2021 and 18.5 to 2022. Based on an assumption of P ratio of 12.4 and a profit margin of 50%, I calculated the stock price of 253 for 2021, a stock price of 190 for 2023, because I assume a one-third reduction in the number of doses they would sell in 2023 compared to 2022. And with this range, I arrived at my targets of $230 a year by the end of March and $270 a year by the end of November of this year. For BioNTech, the management has the expectation of about 18.8 billion US dollars of revenues for 2021. I expect a small increase from 2021 to 2022, and then a one-third reduction from 22 to 23. And with the assumptions similar to the assumptions from Moderna, I arrived at the calculated stock prices of 480 for 21, 515 for 22, and 343 for 23. And from this range, I set the target of 240 by the end of March and the target of 280 by the end of November 2022. Let's look at the professional analysts' opinions. Here I am comparing the opinions from December 19, 2021, when I posted my last video with the opinions from today, January 15, 2022. From Moderna, the price went from 294 to 204, and fortunately almost a 30% decrease. My target has been revised from 370 to 270 to reflect what's been going on and the expectation of the pandemic fading into an endemic. Yahoo Business, they maintained the hold rating. The high target went from 490 to actually up a little bit to 506. Average target went from 301 a little bit down to 289. Same low target of 86. TipRanks.com maintains the hold rating. High target went up a little bit from 468 to 506. Average target went down a little bit from 311 to 304. Low target went down from 135 to 86. CN Money maintains their ratings. Luz Nimalia maintains his overall A rating. For BioNTech, the price went down also from 287 to 196. Quite a decrease. High target is adjusted from 400 to 300. Yahoo Business maintains its hold rating. The high target goes from 447 to 450 about the same, only up a little bit. Average target went up a little bit from 315 to 319. Low target about the same from 179 to 180. TipRanks.com maintains its moderate buy rating with the high target the same 400. Average target moved a little bit from 298 to 295. Same low target of 180. CN Money maintains its hold rating. High target went up just a tiny bit from 399 to 403. Medium target from 292 up quite a bit to 327. And then the low target went up just a little bit from 174 to 177. Luz Nimalia maintains his A rating. Overall, the professional analysts have not changed much about their expectations. Let's look at the Moderna chart. This is the one year chart. Back in December, I showed this triangle and I mentioned that when the timeline moves towards the tip of the triangle, it'll either break up or break down. And unfortunately, it has come down here. Actually, it's been following this downward trend line since the beginning of December. And that's a very bearish sign. As far as support level, it has gotten below the support levels of 50 EMA, 100, 150, and 200 EMAs. Definitely very bearish. In addition, it has gotten below several historical support levels. We'll talk about that in a few seconds. If you look at the RSI indicator, it reached here an oversold situation a few days ago. And the price started to recover for a couple of days. But then eventually it continued to drop. And that's, again, another very bearish sign. DMI has been bearish since the beginning of December. And MACD has been bearish starting the beginning of December. Now, the price is right around the support line here, which is 193. Established way back in June of 2021. If the price does not get supported at that level, the next critical support level will be at this support level. Established back in May of last year, which is 148. Let's hope the price doesn't get down to those levels. But I'll be watching very carefully. Let's look at BioNTech. Again, this is the one-year chart. Just like Moderna, we see this downward channel starting from the beginning of December. A very bearish trend. If you look at RSI, similar to Moderna, it hit the oversold point here a few days ago. The stock price went up for a couple of days and continued to sink. DMI has been bearish since the middle of December. And MACD has been bearish since the beginning of December. It's bearish signs all around. As far as historical support, we are approaching this support line at about 194. It is important to see whether the price will get a little rebound from there. If not, it will sink further. The next support level will be at 146. Established back in May of last year. And then the next support level will be at 112. Established, wow, back in April of last year. I believe both Moderna and BioNTech have been oversold at this point. Because the company long-term is still worth more than the current price, as I've shown in my calculations. Although I will not be buying a lot more shares until I see definitive signs of the chart turning bullish. In other words, making higher highs and higher lows. I've been buying shares occasionally in the last few days. But the moment it failed to get supported at critical levels, I quickly sold off the shares to minimize my losses. I've made a lot of profit as the prices went up. Starting around May, June of last year until all the way to August. I'll be very careful going forward. I'm certainly not going to try to lose everything I gained from last year. And that's why I have significantly reduced the number of shares in my portfolio for both Moderna and BioNTech. Let me recap my price forecasts. I expect Moderna to be at $230 a share and BioNTech at $240 a share by the end of March of this year. And for longer term forecasts, I expect Moderna to be at $270 and BioNTech at $280 by the end of November 2022. What are my strategies? I'm still holding some Moderna and BioNTech shares I bought way back last year for the long term, because I'm still showing a profit on those shares. And I still have quite a lot of confidence in both companies. I believe they are two groups of excellent scientists, and some of them probably deserve to win the Nobel Prize. But from a commercial perspective, we got to understand the reality and need to be able to do swing trading to maximize our profits or minimize our losses when the market is going down, like what happened in the last few weeks. Therefore, I've been swing trading a lot of the shares. Recently, I sold both BioNTech and Moderna shares as they lost support at key levels, and I share my trades with my subscribers on Twitter. In general, I sell when the price fails to get support from a critical support level, or when it pulls back from a resistance level, or when adverse news develops. And I buy when the price bounces up from a key support level, or when it breaks above a resistance level, or when positive news develops. I will continue to be mindful of the broad market and any news events related to the pandemic, as well as related to the companies. I will update my subscribers by way of my Twitter messages. At this point, I'd like to suggest that you also subscribe to my Twitter account, which is DanMarketL, in addition to subscribing to my YouTube channel. For example, on January 7th, I said I bought more BioNTech shares because it seems to be rebounding. Then, within the same day, it started to pull back again. At that point, I sold my shares at a very slim profit margin. After that, the price continued to drop even lower, as you saw in the charts. On January 13, I sold more BioNTech shares that I intended originally to hold for the long term, because at that point, I realized that most investors believe COVID is fading away, which might or might not be true. But for now, I got to respect the chart, and that's why I had to lower my holding of BioNTech shares. My intention is to buy again when the price starts recovering, hopefully at a lower price point. Again, I'd like to suggest you click the like, subscribe and notification button. As usual, I would very much appreciate your comments, questions, and suggestions. This is about wraps up my video for now. I will chat with you again in the next few days. In the meanwhile, I'd like to wish you the very best of luck with your financial investments.