 What's going on and welcome to the solo shot? My name is Tom Vecchio. We have a nine game MLB slate tonight It is starting at 7 0 5 as always is one of the many shows on the fan dual podcast network You can find that anywhere whether it's Apple podcast whether it's Spotify the video version can be found on the fan dual YouTube page can be found on fendal TV plus and fendal com slash watch You can follow me on Twitter at Tom underscore Vecchio one Before we hop into things get ready for the NFL season with incredible offers from fendal America's number one sports But right now new customers can bet $5 and get 200 in bonus bets Guaranteed plus all customers who bet $5 will get 100 off NFL Sunday ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV Now is the best time to join fendal the app is easy to use and you can bet on everything from spreads to player props and more Fandal official partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and present in select States Fandals offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Dark Casino LLC first online real money wager only $10 first positive priority bonus issued as non-drable bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook.fando.com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit fando.com slash R gene If you're in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee or Virginia Call 1 800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in Arizona Call 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut If you're in Indiana call 1809 with it If you're in Kansas call 1 800 5 2 2 4 7 0 0 or visit chaos gambling help.com in Louisiana call 1 8 7 7 7 7 0 stop In Maryland visit md gambling help.org Visit 1 800 gambler net in west virginia or in wyoming call 1 800 5 2 2 4 7 0 0 Hope is here visit gambling help line ma.org or call 800 3 2 7 5 0 5 0 4 24 7 support in massachusetts Call 1 800 8 hope and why or text hope and why in new york Enfield sunday ticket offer ends 9 18 23 no refunds terms and embargoes apply 100 off and for sunday ticket not youtube tv YouTube tv base plan required to watch youtube tv redemption requires google count and current form payment commercial use excluded All right, let's get into tonight's nine game mlb slate again lock is set for 705 Really know whether issues for the games on this slate if you're playing a a main slate or Not the main slate I should say if you're playing not the main slate some type of extended slate Some type of all day slate keep in mind that there are a couple double headers going on today between the yankees and the red socks The royals and the white socks Along with a few games starting at like 6 30 some of those games could have some rain So if you're playing an extended slate keep an eye on that in terms of the main slate We're actually pretty clear when it comes to weather In minnesota, it's going to be about 60 degrees and there's a little bit of wind blowing in So that should be a nice bump for pitchers there Other than that we are looking pretty good. And again, we do have cores fueled on tonight's late as we did last night Let's jump into the pitching You know, we have some really good pitchers on tonight's late starting off with freddy peralta at 10 10500 just in verlander 10.3 max scherzer 10.1 joe ryan At 9.9. So we have four different pitchers right at this 10k mark. Michael walk is also 9.7 And i'll say i have no interest in michael walker tonight, especially at that elevated salary Going up against the dodgers not a spot that i like to go So no interest in michael walkham brian woo is 9500 going up against the los angeles angel's certainly a spot that i'll be looking to go It really comes down to this top tier tonight peralta peralta verlander scherzer and ryan all within 200 of each other at you know decreasing 10.5 10.3 10.1 And 9.9 for these pitchers freddy peralta comes in An absolutely awesome 30.8 strikeout rate He does an 8.7 walk rate which has kind of been this thing throughout really the entirety of his career where He can lack command, you know on the mound at times and he allows a few too many fly balls And you know that can come back to bite him when he allows a runner or two on for free And then all of a sudden we have a home run allowed and that's where the downside With freddy peralta comes but really the upside is what we want to be focusing on With a 30.8 strikeout rate, which is absolutely awesome He has a 3.57 skill interactive era sierra and as i mentioned He's mostly a fly ball pitcher at 41.5 percent this season. He has mostly medium contact though at 51.9 percent Not to mention the fact that he's an awesome 14.3 swinging strike rate He we know he can pile up those strikeouts pretty pretty quickly And we've seen him reach for his ceiling of you know double digit strikeouts many times this year He's at home in milwaukee going up against the miami marlins The marlins actually come in with a 20.5 strikeout rate versus right-handed pitcher with their current active roster Which is actually 24th in a league. So they're rather disciplined at the plate They're not giving away too many chances, but we like attacking the marlins Simply due to the fact that they have a 94 wrc plus versus righties with their current active roster, which is 22nd in the league And they also come in with a team iso sitting at 149, which is 26 in the league So they don't have a lot of power or consistency in their lineup and sure they're not striking out a whole lot But really this is just a great matchup to be looking to as we've kind of done throughout the entirety of the season You know and I would say over the past few years. Yeah, they're striking out less this season compared to years in pass But still they're not a powerful offense not an offense. We need to be too worried about overall So peralta is absolutely in a great spot Now when it comes to justin verlander This is where and I'll say something about justin verlander and really all these pitchers peralta verlander scherzer and ryan We're split in hairs here very very Minutely between them in terms of salary as I said 200 apart decreasing for each of them in terms of their matchups Whatever it might be Verlander is at home for the astros going up against oakland oakland has a 24.6 strike all right versus righties with their current active roster Which is the fifth worst in league so substantially worse compared to Miami oakland comes with a 91 wrc plus And a 158 iso versus righty So basically online with the marlins, but they strike out at a much higher clip But verlander himself has a much lower strike array compared to freddy peralta verlander Is that 21 percent this year 7.1 percent walk rate and 1.06 home runs per night He also as you would assume In terms of the sierra as he's you know been okay this year It's at 4.53. It's actually trending in the right direction. You know since he's been with the astros So what do we have here? We have verlander who's in a matchup against oakland who strike out more compared to miami They're roughly the same in terms of their offensive power overall But verlander himself doesn't have as high of a strikeout rate as freddy peralta And verlander is 200 less expensive Then we move to max scherzer and max scherzer comes in with a 28.6 strikeout rate Which is kind of comparative comparison to freddy peralta much higher than verlander Scherzer's allowing 1.71 home runs per nine. He has a 7.3 walk rate We look at some of his other stuff. His sierra is better than verlander at 3.74 He is still mostly a fly ball pitcher at 48.8 percent But he's mostly a medium contact pitcher at 49.2 percent, but Verlander excuse me scherzer Scherzer is going up against the blue jays, which is absolutely a more difficult matchup compared to verlander going up against oakland So scherzer has a better strikeout rate compared to verlander But it's a much more difficult matchup the blue jays also come in with a 20.3 strikeout rate, which is 26th Only but they also have a 107 wrc plus So there are better offense that strikes out less But scherzer himself has a higher strikeout rate and the same can be said about joe ryan Where joe ryan is absolutely a solid pitcher comes in the 29.1 strikeout rate a very low 4.8 percent walk rate He does allow 1.72 home runs per nine Which i do expect to regress because he's still mostly a medium contact pitcher at 51.3 percent Along with a 3.47 sierra. He does allow a 50 point 50.8 percent fly ball rate So the fly balls are a little bit of an issue for joe ryan But he's still mostly a medium contact pitcher. It's good, which is good to see So as I said, we are splitting hairs between all of them now when we look at the matchup for joe ryan He's at home as I said, there's a little bit of wind blowing in at minnesota. It's also a little bit cooler He's going up against the tampa bay rays who come up with a 24.2 strikeout rate versus varieties Which is the seventh worst in the league So they are comparative to oakland who's at 24.6 with their current active roster versus varieties and tampa is actually striking Out a good amount right now, but They've a 121 wrc plus and a 196 iso. So they are the best offense out of this group But joe ryan's also the least expensive and joe ryan has a very solid 29.1 strikeout rate So as I said, it's like positives and negatives for all of these pictures where Peralta has the highest strikeout rate, but he's going up against a team that strikes out at the lowest rate Verlander has the lowest strikeout rate, but he's going up against a team that has the highest strikeout rate ryan is the least expensive and he has a solid strikeout rate But he's also going up against the most dangerous offense in tampa So we are dealing with like very very minute details between all of these pictures What it comes down to is how are we actually going to be ranking them? You know, that's what matters How are how should we be prioritizing these four pictures? So right now? I'm going to go peralta one Verlander two ryan three and then sherser four And I'm putting sherser fourth simply due to the offense and if I'm if I'm getting to 10.1 I would rather just get up to 10.5 for peralta I'd rather find that 400 of salary the strikeout rates are relatively comparable But I'll just take the easier matchup going up against miami compared to going up against the blue jays So that's how I'm going at right going at it right now peralta verlander ryan sherser in that order As I said, I have no interest in michael walker You know, you could go to brian woos at 9.5 But then at the same time like I said, why not get up to joe ryan? And go for that higher strikeout rate We have a whole you know cast the pictures on tonight's slate not really many that i'm interested in below this point Again, we do of course field so you know finding salary relief at picture is always helpful However, there's not too many spots that I'd be willing to go really, you know landslint at 9 000 He certainly has that strikeout rate, but you know the padres still have the offense even though they're inconsistent They still have the offense as we saw last night and a lot of power In their lineup, so it's not necessarily the spot that i'll be looking to go Joe ryan is probably the least expensive picture that i'm willing to go to right now Maybe hungen re you for the blue jays at 8.8 as the day goes on Depending on what the value looks like throughout the rest of the day When some starting lineups are announced and we actually have to start building some lineups that could change All right, let's get to the stacks on tonight's slate as I said, we have the we have course field on tonight's slate Don't necessarily want to talk about that too much You know we had some good amount of runs last night I think was nine total runs last night for the cubs and the rockies roster hitters at course field Surprise surprise you could always be going there. We have the dodgers on tonight's slate You can always be going to them They lost last night Well, it's at 11 to 7 11 to 6 whatever it was for the padres and the dodgers I'm always going to be willing to go to the dodgers with their home run upside as we saw last night It was max muncie and mookie bets with home runs if I remember correctly I'm still going to be going to the dodgers basically on a nightly basis outside of those teams Where do we want to be going? You know the the astros kind of just laid an egg last night and that happens It's baseball it's a weird sport weird stuff happens at times But I'm going to be willing to go right back to the astros tonight in a great matchup going up against jp sears you know, this is the spot where You know, we don't want to be having recency bias Against the astros. Yeah, they laid an egg last night with no runs And they only had like four or five hits or whatever was just a complete dud of a game again it happens if you know recency bias and what you know why I bring it up is like We don't want to have that because they're just objectively in a great spot tonight going up against jp sears for the athletics Who's just not a good pitcher? So if there is recency bias against the astros and no one wants to rush them to oh, they burned me last night I don't want to be going back to the astros the dodgers are on tonight So the the you know, we of course field on tonight. So let me just roster hitters They are like that's fine because if the astros are going to be flying under the radar because they kind of burn people last night Well, that's just makes them a better tournament play When it's all said and done We look to jp sears. He's allowing 1.84 home runs per nine a 21.9 strike every which is nothing to worry about 6.7 walk rate, which is certainly fine Uh, we look to some of his other stats. He has a 274 babbit Which is fine expected to regress towards the league average So slightly a little bit higher 53.8% fly ball rate in a 4.61 sierra Is nothing we need to be worried about and again when it comes to the astros lineup They have plenty of power up and down their lineup and surprisingly chasma kormit That's right. Chasma kormit leads the way with a 193 wrc plus versus left-handed pitching this season He actually leads the astros which is a bit of a surprise kyle tuckers right behind him at 160 wrc plus and of course you can always go to your don alberas at 152 Jose al tuve who has specifically liked tonight hose al tuve 144 wrc plus. He has a 205 isa He's a player that I particularly like tonight He's been hot as of late, you know a bunch of home runs last week. He had a home run a couple days ago He's a player that I always want to be looking to when possible Uh, you know, of course you want to mix in now x breakman Uh, hose abrayu has been a bit too up and down for me this season where he's like soup He was super cold to start the year then he gets hot and he's cold Just not a player that I want to be going to al tuve alvarez Tucker breakman mccormick or the five that I want to be targeting of course getting Three of them or three or at least three of them in my lineup where possible I don't want to have too much exposure to some of the value plays On the astros. I think we can look elsewhere for that No diaz painia whatever the players are at the bottom of their lineup mires Really no one I have a whole lot of interest in it's about getting up to the top sluggers from the Astros tonight I don't think that is too much of a shock al tuve alvarez. Tucker breakman mccormick or the players you're on beginning to and again Chas mccormick at 3500. He's the cheapest among this group of five He actually leads the team with a 193 w r c plus So yes chas mccormick absolutely looking there Now where else can we be going on tonight's late? I particularly have a lot of interest in the mezz and the diamond backs game Both sides of this Jose buto for the mezz is on the mound ryan nelson is on the mound for the arizona dime backs neither picture We need to be worried about And I think this presents a lot of upside for All sides it's it's a little bit warm At city field for the mezz a little bit of wind blowing out I didn't mention the top. It's not like a massive mount But it's a good hitting environment compared to some of the other spots on tonight's late Even though it is a bit of a pictures park for the mezz Jose buto for the mezz. He only has 21 innings pitch at the major league level this season He had four innings pitch at the major league level last year. So not a massive massive sample size He has a 16 walk rate and that's obviously Insanely bad and a 17 strike rate, which is far below the league average again. It's a very very small sample size from him He's only allowing 0.43 home runs per nine He is mostly a medium contact ground ball picture and his bab is sitting at 274 But given what we've seen from him at least some of the minor league stats that we see with a 314 babith This is a spot that we should really expect to Expect him to progress along with the fact that he allowed 1.68 home runs per nine in AAA this season And this was a 91 innings pitch So it seems that he's like running a little bit hot at least to start the season again It's like 21 innings at the major league level this year So I expected him to start giving up more home runs more balls in play that will actually start going for hits And yes, a 16 walk rate is insanely high, but he had an 11.8 walk rate again at AAA this year 91 innings so He may not be at 16, but it's not like he's going to drop to four So him falling to eight nine 10 walk rate Would be you know averaging out and that kind of finding its middle ground But that's a bad walk rate and and with an offense like the diamond backs on the other side I will take them going up against jose uto And yes, they have a lot of power at the top of their lineup Of course, Corbin Carroll can get on base steal two three bases hit a home run Another type of player you want in any single line up But could tell marté is always a viable option christian walker is always a viable option lorda scurriel Is always a viable option? We have plenty of players that we can be going to For the Arizona diamond backs and you know, they also offer a bit of value which is good to see You know al thomas at 2,500 We could be certainly getting into some lineups like this is a team that i'm interested in stacking tonight because of their matchup And also because of some of the value that they bring You know given their lineup now when it comes to the Mets, they're going up against ryan nelson for the diamond backs Again, another pitcher. We really don't need to be worried about He has a seven percent walk rate, which is certainly fine and this season 2023 for him he has 130 130.2 innings pitch. So this is a good sample size for nelson Uh seven percent walk rate is certainly fine a 15.2 strike rate is so so low compared to the league average And he's allowing 1.5 to home runs per nine. He's mostly a fly ball pitcher at 43.5 percent He has a 5.25 skill interactive era and he comes in allowing a 37 hard contact rate So he's a pitcher that is not dominant on the mound with a very low 15.2 strike rate And he's allowing too many fly balls and yes the Mets have been underperforming or You know, whatever you want to call it overall in terms of the season But they still have power in their lineup obviously led by pita lanza at $4,000 You can of course go to indoor nimo Any of these other players, you know, jeff mcneal, whoever else makes their lineup I'm going to be interested in that simply do the fact that The diamond backs pitching staff is not good. You know, that's one spot They should have improved at the deadline at least in my opinion And they didn't really make any moves to do so A matchup where we have two teams that both have implied run totals at 4.96 or higher The Mets are at was at 4.96 and the dime backs are at 5.04 like this is expected to be a high scoring game I want exposure to both sides of it And again, there's a bit of value whether it's dj steward for the Mets You know al thomas for the dime backs as I mentioned I guess I you could say it's a revenge game for tommy fam Who's now on the dime backs the match traded him to the diamond backs earlier this season You could roll with that as well So both sides of Mets diamond backs, I think are worth stacking tonight We have course field on tonight's slate, which is of course worth stacking We have the Dodgers on tonight's slate, of course, they're always worth stacking And then I'm particularly high on houston. I just expect a bounce back spot for them After just a dud of a game last night. It happens. It's baseball teams get shut out It is what it is But I'll be willing to go right back to the dod going right back to the astros tonight going up against jp sears Let's get to the dinger calls to close things out Going to go with hose al-tube as I mentioned Big on him tonight going up against jp sears al-tube a player that can really go for multiple home runs Not only this season as we've seen him recently last week But over the course of his career a player that can you know, hit it lead off home run Get on base again score another run whatever might be always interested in getting that type of player Into my lineups and then cody bellinger at cores field for the chicago cubs. This is obviously a pretty one He's 40 pretty easy one. He's 4600 tonight. Obviously. It's a very very expensive salary but The upside that he brings the consistency that he's had this season and that was at the best hitters park in the Lee is certainly a spot that i'll always be looking to get exposure So cody bellinger and hose al-tube for the two dinger calls tonight All right, so that does it for today's podcast Is always this one of the many shows on the fandal podcast network You can find that whether it's on apple podcast whether it's on spotify the video version Going to be found on the fandal youtube page Going to be found on fandal tv plus going to found on fandal comm slash watch You can follow me on twitter at tom underscore vekia one until next time. Good luck with your contest