 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread? It is the sports betting podcast on the FanDuel podcast network looking for some value in the lines over at FanDuel Sportsbook My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire comm joined here as always by Ed Fang of the PowerRank.com. Ed week two of the preseason is about to get underway tonight very exciting time for You know sports bettors for DFS players like myself and college football back in the FanDuel lobby as well So I'm pretty pumped. How you doing today? I'm doing great. I'm pumped, too I'm really digging deep on a lot of college football and NFL teams and Looking at numbers and understanding context and trying to predict what's gonna happen in 2019 and that is no small task So it's good that the off-season is as long as it is because we need all that time to digest And then we just get blitzed with all this information in the month of August You have to keep up with all that and it's tough But if you can keep up it definitely does help you out quite a bit from a knowledge perspective Follow Ed on Twitter at the PowerRank. I am at Jim Saunas Also, do not forget to subscribe rate and review covering the spread because back on Monday We talked to Bud Elliott of Banner Society. We talked college football national championship odds and also playoff odds to find that interview with Bud search for covering the spread on Apple podcast Spotify wherever you listen to your podcast and I believe the Google Play Store should be up Sometime today on Thursday as well So make sure you check that out if you're on Apple podcast leave us a rating in review because it helps that a ton If you liked what Bud had to say or if you like what Keith Goldner has to say later today Because we're gonna talk to Keith. He is one of the numbers guys over at number fire He's the chief analyst at number fire the director director of data science or fan duel as well We're gonna go through divisional odds and Ed we know Keith well because we've been talking to him on the NC double a podcast the past couple of years and I'm excited to hear what he has to say about 2019 and You keep kicking his butt in those March madness term is too. So that's always a good thing I mean, I'm not gonna bring that up today because I don't want Keith to get mad at me I like Keith, but uh, you know, we can talk we can talk about that here because Keith people here So we're good. I'm good. Exactly. I gotta get the three years three years this this March. So yeah, no pressure at this Yeah, no pressure. I gotta tell you man I mean, you know, it takes luck and skilled whenever you're so you can't necessarily count on three in a row But I can guarantee the luck is there. I'll tell you that right now The luck has been readily apparent Next week bit of a different schedule for covering the spread usually we try to record the Monday podcast around 2 30 But we're gonna record that one a little bit later on Monday night So if you are around Monday evening, it will probably not be up in time for your drive time on Monday night Unless you're on the West Coast, but we're gonna talk us open and tennis betting with whalecapper and because I know nothing about tennis betting I don't know if that does we're gonna go through a lot of process based stuff But it should be a lot of fun and I feel like it'll make me appreciate the US open more once it starts Absolutely, I'm looking forward to that as well. All right, that'll be on Monday But first we're in talk to Keith Goldner in just one second And if you want to get in on the action check out the Fandall sportsbook and place your first bet today If you lose Fandall will give you up to a five hundred dollar refund in site credit Visit sportsbook.fandall.com for more details terms and conditions apply must be 21 plus and physically present in New Jersey or Pennsylvania gambling problem call 1-800-GAMBLER and we'll talk plenty about the Eagles with Keith he is an Eagles fan in just one second you can follow Keith on Twitter at Keith Goldner Let's bring on Keith to talk NFL division winners for twenty eight nineteen Covering the present Let's bring Keith Goldner into Covering the spread and Keith the band is back together because we've had you and Ed and me on our NCAA tournament podcast the past Three years now. We're here to talk football. How you doing today? I'm doing great. Glad to be back Absolutely, we're glad to have you here to talk a little bit of NFL's we get set for the 2019 season Of course Keith is the man behind the numbers over at number fire And they do give out divisional projections and divisional odds and obviously that translates directly to betting So let's start things off here in the AFCE's the Patriots heavy favorites there minus 5 50 and Keith that's a pretty short number. Is there any value in betting them at that number or Would you dig an underdog in this division? I don't think there's really any value in betting them at that number I mean the Patriots are gonna win this division, but I think at number fire We have around 70 percent, which it's probably a little bit low considering who else is in the division We have a little bit of value on the bills actually. They're at like plus 1100 Which is under 10 percent. We have them around 15 or 16 percent So I might go in that direction Just if I was going to but I think generally I'd be staying away from the AFC East It seems fairly efficient and Just like even before we get into a lot of this stuff one thing you'll find with these kind of markets is the the juice is pretty huge So you need to have a good amount of value To really be making a selection here. Yeah, especially with the Patriots and it's a long time to tide your bank Or all that there's not a lot of value in it then makes a lot of sense with the bills It seems like their defense is probably the key driver behind them being favored in the odds Is that kind of what you're seeing in their numbers as well? Yeah, I think I think they're just a little Underrated, I mean, I don't think they're a great team or anything like that But based on their performance and efficiency metrics I just think they have a little bit better of a shot than what the sportsbook is giving them and a big part of that is just the Huge heavy public Favorites of the Patriots. Yeah, and you also have Josh Allen a quarterback, which certainly doesn't help Keith I didn't want to ask you I mean, I gotta think you have New England near the top of the NFL and The three other teams near the bottom of the NFL and you said it was about 70% that the Patriots win the division Yep, we have Patriots as the number one team highest division odds at around right around 70% So I'm just thinking like I mean your division probability can't really get much higher than 70% Right at this point in the season in the sense that you know, you can only make certain assumptions about how good the best team is How bad the worst teams are I would say it could probably get a little bit higher We did not have the Patriots as our top team last or even though they won the Super Bowl But yeah, 70% is about as high you're gonna get one of the things that we bake into our season simulations is a good deal of uncertainty because in the NFL Because of injuries or just the small sample size the year-to-year variance in terms of winning games and winning the division is Pretty high So that's why you'll also see a lot of value in some of these Conferences on especially when it's like a pretty competitive Division on like the the lower ranked teams because the variance is so high Yeah, your things change so much especially with the Patriots too. There's a lot of change over there So even though number fires algorithms do like the Patriots quite a bit. It makes sense that even at 550 Probably just not enough there to dive in let's move down to the AFC north and Keith You were talking about how competitive divisions can sometimes get some value to the underdog And this one seems to be pretty close the Browns are plus 135 Steelers are plus 170 the Ravens plus 280 So those three teams grouped pretty closely here Who does number fires algorithms have taking this one and is there any betting value on any of those teams or even the Bengals I probably wouldn't bet them myself, but what do they say about the AFC north here? Yeah, so number fire has the Steelers is the most likely to take the division Obviously, there's a lot of public hype on the the Browns Baker Mayfield Odell Beckham train We have them as third most likely the most value we have is on the Ravens and actually I think that the line has shifted From a lot of sharp action because of that They it used to be like longer odds and now it's like plus 280. I think which is 26 percent We have them at about 30 percent to win the division and I like you said I think there's a little bit of value on sincey We haven't been about 10 or 12 percent to win the division and I'm not sure what their odds are But I'm sure it's significantly lower than that based on the other three teams there Yeah, they're 20 to 1 and I don't think personally I take that given all the injuries that they've had But it does make a lot of sense So the Browns in general Keith are the algorithms lower on them than the public seems to be because they've been a talked about Offense basically ever since midway through last year Yeah, I think you'll see there's a lot of hype around it and it obviously could play out But in terms of the the raw efficiency metrics and how they performed last year You got to make some estimates for bringing new people into the system, but we think it's a little overhyped Yeah, and I think well and Pittsburgh such a well-run organization in general. I mean they still have a great quarterback in Rothesburg had a pretty good defense for a while and You know pretty unlucky to not make the playoffs. They would have been one of my favorites heading to the Super Bowl had they Just actually made the playoffs. So, you know, I think there's a lot to like there I definitely trust your numbers on on that Keith I wanted to ask you about the AFC South where all four teams are 600 or plus 600 or shorter Colts order this week was minus 105 Do you like them or any other teams in that division? No, I'm a little surprised by by the Colts odds being so high I know it's moved because of the the luck injury concerns, but Like Houston won the division last year and they're at Plus to 70 I think just like 27% we have met like 32% take the division and Tennessee is really low They're plus 550 again. This is a really Historically a very tight division where anybody can win at any given year So I think there's a little bit of value on Houston in Tennessee And Indy's the one team that I would just be completely avoiding in terms of making that bet just broadly with Indy We have this ambiguity around Andrew Luck and not knowing if he'll be even be available for week number one as a better Would you be staying away from the Colts? Not just for the division all odds but in general until we know more about what luck status may be Yeah, I mean if that could open up some some market inefficiencies in terms of the other way So you can definitely make educated guesses one way or the other but based on how heavy the public seems to be favoring The Colts in that division. I would think I wouldn't be picking them to do too much Yeah, the the hyper on the Titans here all Reval's around at the greatest quarterback at football Marcus Mariota, too Of course, of course And the Colts have a huge amount of questions on the defensive side of the ball So definitely interested to see how that plays out Keith Let's go over to the ASC West a lot of people see this as a two-team race with the the chiefs at minus 155 The clear favorite Los Angeles Chargers at plus 170 Do you like these two teams or maybe some potential value on the Broncos and the Raiders? So we have the chiefs that I think 44 45 percent and the Chargers at like 38 or 39 percent So there was maybe a tiny bit of value on the Chargers if those odds went a little lower Then then maybe that's where I would make a decision there So I don't really love either of those teams. I think there might be a tiny bit of value on the Broncos Obviously, there's a lot of questions around their offense, especially at quarterback But they're at like plus 1300, which is only 7% and we have them closer to 10 to 15 percent So I think there might be a little bit of value there But generally this is another division that I think I would probably be staying away from just because of the juice And right in the other thing too is like when there are two good teams like that at the top It's going to make it harder for things to shake out and favor those underdogs And if you see the best value in the underdogs and it's probably going to push you away from betting that division So I think it makes a lot of sense. I do like the Chargers think they're interesting But I think the thought process there is is pretty sound too, right? Yeah, I think the the underdog bet makes more sense in when there's a little more parity in the division and this It's a little more polarized. So Not a great situation. Maybe a little bit of parity in the NFC North then let's move there They've got three teams with playoff aspirations here We got the Bears Packers Vikings the odds super tight for all three. So Just straight up Keith before we talk about the odds Who is the favorite based on number fires algorithms to win the NFC North? We have really close between the top three, but we have the Bears as well at 36 percent I think we have the Vikings and Packers both around 27 percent and then the Lions down around nine or 10 percent So we have the Bears most likely to win it in terms of value I think I would just be avoiding everything here The the lines seem fairly efficient and again with the with the Vig It's not a great not a great place to be looking right and if you have all three of them bunched on it together But they're also there from an odds perspective, then it makes a lot of sense. You would want to stay away It the Vikings you mentioned to them being second Did they tempt you at all or would you need their odds to lengthen a bit before you dove in? Yeah, there's still I mean the the sportsbook has it at 32 percent and we haven't like 27 percent So it's still pretty far off Yeah, I mean, I think the Packers are a very interesting team in this division I mean there's been so much made of Aaron Rodgers and his new coach yada yada yada But I think what doesn't get talked about is the dude's been hurt the last two years and I mean, how much is that gonna? I think that's the main thing that's gonna help that team and you know They got a lot of the young pieces in the secondary that you know could come could all come together They were hurt a lot last year. So an interesting team, but where were you? Where do your numbers have them? The Packers ranked? Let me take a quick look just in terms of division odds or overall just just in terms of where they are in the NFL If you had that currently have them ranked 13th, okay, so middle of the league Okay, a little bit lower than I thought but This is a tough division man and I think that makes it harder to bet to when there are that many good teams and At least I would say two good quarterbacks. Well three. I guess Matthew Stafford in there Well, we won't discuss the the Bears quarterback But regardless tough division for sure another tough division, but maybe a bit more top heavy is the NFC East and Keith a division I'm sure near and dear to your heart Being from near Philadelphia the NFC East another two-team race here Eagles and Cowboys Eagles are minus 125 Cowboys plus 150 we're gonna take your your Eagles thoughts out of here Keith Look at what the numbers say any leanings here any value in those numbers between the two teams So between those top teams no real value. I mean obviously the Eagles are gonna win the division But in terms of the raw probabilities, I don't think there's much value there I have seen the NFC East be close far too many times to yeah Not think that anybody could win the division and I think honestly the most value here is probably on the Giants They're at plus 1200 which is like 8% and we have them around 13% And again just because of the way that division tends to go Obviously, there's huge quarterback questions and offense questions there But I think that's where the most value is there which is given the public Yeah, being being a lot of sports book lines being New York centric And there's been a lot of hype around this Eagles team from an analytics perspective because obviously they they value them So Keith like as a fan or just as a numbers guy. What's your what are your thoughts broadly on the Eagles 2019? Yeah, I'm very excited for I think we obviously did not play particularly well last year Carson was coming back from the injury was not the most efficient didn't really look like himself And the secondary in particular with all the injuries Really the team did not result as well either So I think there's definitely a lot of upside there and I'm really excited for the season Would you bet them to win the Super Bowl or do you think that? You more so want to stay away because even a competitive division hurts their Super Bowl odds too So any thoughts on the Eagles beyond just the NFC East? Yeah, do you know what their Super Bowl odds are at currently? I can look it up But I think that's they were a team that were shortening before and they're actually down to 14 to 1 now They were not that short not that long ago I think that's probably a fairly efficient line and if the public's on them for the For the division they're gonna be slightly on them for the Super Bowl as well. So I'm probably something I'd stay away from So Keith you've mentioned the Lions odds about 9% to win the division the Giants at 13% Those seems large to me knowing what I know about those teams is that I mean is like how low could could these odds go? I mean, maybe the maybe the Jets and the AC Easter Well, yeah I think you'll see a lot of the the lower teams around there again Just because the uncertainty that gets baked in the lowest ones we have are the the Raiders at Just under 3% and then the Cardinals and Dolphins are around 4% And then after that it's it's basically around the 8-9 or 10% for the next teams Yeah, I mean that's interesting because one of these body, you know, three four or five percent I mean, that's the error rate and a lot of these medical studies, right? So that's the that's the chance and you know, I mean, that's what you expect in the NFL with a salary cap and regression to the meeting Yeah, keep us move on to the NFC South Saints are pretty heavily favored there at minus 170. Is there any value at that number? Or do you like one of the other teams potentially the Falcons plus 320 Yeah, we have the Saints is this as the second most likely to win the division behind New England But that's around 50% so definitely not value there in terms of the bet. We actually think there's some value on the Panthers We haven't met 24% to win the division right now. They're at plus 600, which is roughly like 14% So that's one of the higher values that we have. I know there's there were concerns around cams shoulder and the injuries there but Historically and based on their efficiency last year even with cams struggles We have them significantly higher and cams look good And you know, it looks like in training camp at least based on videos Which are always a representative of what's going to happen during the season So training camp hide videos good for cam Newton And I think that the Falcons are a team that I have liked coming into this year We like the Panthers tubers Arians in Tampa Bay Does that make you low on the Saints? I know the division odds from number fire make it sound like they're a bit overrated But broadly do you view the Saints as being a team we should stay away from from a betting perspective or potentially even bet their unders? I mean, I think the Saints are a favorite. They're one of the best teams in the league I think they were our number one team after last season So I don't know that I'd be staying away from them. It just kind of depends on the odds you're given We I think at number fire were a little bit low on Atlanta. The defense was horrendous last year They were like the third worst efficiency wise and that really penalized their ranking So I think they're probably a little bit better than what we're giving them credit for but The Saints just in general are a great team. I would always be supporting them as a really really tough division Hey Keith. So in your model, I mean Atlanta had a ton of injuries to their safeties last year two pretty good players back there Does the model account for those guys coming back this year? You know, or is it just part of the regression that you expect? Yeah, we yeah, so we we bake in regression in both directions If you're a really good team or really bad team based on that Expected draft picks as well as like recovering from injuries and then we also have statistical adjustments that we do based on individual very high impact players that might be coming back or out due to injury and the Falcons had a couple of those and Keanu Neal and Dion Jones, so it makes sense that they Would potentially be a bit undervalued but also it makes sense that you would adjust for them manually Let's finish up here with the NFC West the Rams have the second shortest odds to win their division at minus 185 But they've also had lots of change over in the offseason new starters at Center and left guard Todd Gurley Maybe not a hundred percent our out our number fires algorithms Keith as into the Rams as Fandall sportsbook is Yeah, we're still like comparatively if you look at where the sportsbook is on these to where we are on the top teams We're still really high on them. We have them as the number three team just behind the Patriots and Saints just under 50 percent sportsbook is obviously up at around 65 percent So again would not be touching that but we're we still have them as one of the top teams If you were to not bet the Rams, do you see any value in the Seahawks 49ers or Cardinals for this year? Yeah, I think there's good value on the Seahawks They're at plus 290 which is like 25 percent and we give them like a one and three chance to win the division So that's probably the team that I would be going after in the NFC West Interesting. What about just like from your perspective personally, I mean, I know that the the Seahawks kind of Sometimes can be a little offensive to to analytics people with their insistence on running the football. Does that I Don't want to say backwards mentality But like kind of backwards mentality scare you at all when it would come to making a bet on the Seahawks I don't think so. I mean obviously I'm not I'm not necessarily a huge fan of the way they might approach the game But that doesn't mean that they're if they're still putting up high efficiency numbers It's still a team that you know can perform at a high level regardless of the strategy that they choose Alrighty that is Keith Goldner once again one of the guys behind the numbers over a number fire He's a chief analyst a number fire and the director of data science over at fan duel Keith I want to thank you for coming on today talking about some NFL divisional odds I will be pulling for the Eagles for you this year appreciate it. I'll talk to you again soon. Thanks so much for having me great to be here Covering the future One final thank you to Keith Goldner of number fire and Fandle for swinging by and talking about those divisional odds for 2019 follow Keith on Twitter at Keith Goldner You want to get additional insights there as well and find all of his work over at number fire the team rankings are Free to use as well so you can make sure you can check those out at number fire and look for the power rankings They are with divisional odds Super Bowl odds and all of that jazz as well. Let's dive into covering the future and Ed. I Heard through the pipeline. Is it the pipe down the pike? I don't know regardless I heard through the grapevine that you're gonna talk about Northwestern today Yeah, I think a little bird might have told you a little bit earlier And you're doing this on the day when we have two different Northwestern people on the podcast because Keith Also, and then you alum what an appropriate day to do it. Ah, it's all you plan this all No, actually So I was sat down this morning and I was writing my email newsletter. So every week to my email newsletter I give people a sample of Predictions that are usually safe for paying members of my site I add a little bit of analysis and I was looking at that Northwestern at Stanford game and Let's just thinking about this team because you know Northwestern won the Big 10 West last year But I forgot Jim that you all also lost the 4 and 8 Akron. Yeah So this made me get into it a little bit deeper, right? Because now you start remembering some of those games and Northwestern kind of needed a miracle to beat Nebraska down 10 points late kind of got some lucky breaks at Iowa So I dug a little bit deeper and this Northwestern team was really fascinating So when I look at it from a points perspective So these are my team rankings and essentially takes margin of victory in games and adjust for who you played Northwestern was a very respectable 29th. I also look at a different efficiency metric yards per play Rank teams on offense and defense and then adjust for strength schedule Northwestern was 73rd and that's really hard to do when you have a respectable defense like the defense was 39th and I've almost never seen a team at the end of the year be 29th in one Set of rankings I trust and 73rd in another set of rankings that I trust and just a couple points here Like I include both of these in my model Usually teams are much closer in in these rankings, but they're different here And they're picking up different signals, right? So, you know, when you're looking at margin of victory in games You're picking up signal from like turnovers and there's a lot of randomness in turnovers But we're also learning more and more about there's some things that you can prevent in terms of turnovers especially during interceptions and That's what the team rankings will pick up They'll also pick up special teams Play a little bit as well. Whereas when you're only looking at yours for play on offense and defense You're not getting special teams and you're certainly not getting turnovers in that. So When I try to model these games, I include both. I just thought it was really interesting that Northwestern was So good in one and so bad another But I do have to say Jim that the one that goes into my preseason model Is that points based model where you guys look really good the one that doesn't go into the model is the 73rd? So I'm feeling a lot better about Stanford minus six and a half Yeah, that was that was based on your model and if you think that your model may be overrated them because of the things that it takes in it makes sense and Honestly, I'm not surprised they were that low in that number because they They insisted on running the ball with Isaiah Bowser and Isaiah Bowser was awesome He was he was fun to watch. He was a freshman kid who came up, but I Think it's 40 times probably gonna be like 4-9 if he ever runs with the combine He's not the fleet is to foot. I would say run a 4-9. I could not I can guarantee running. Yeah I don't know if I can run a 5-9 So I think that That makes a lot of sense because they decided to go with this like it was it was a kind of a run-heavy attack Clean Thorson didn't play that well and this year they're they have they're returning to starting offense alignment and they do have Hunter Johnson That's pretty exciting. He's this big-time recruiter Clemson and transfer because Trevor Lawrence is apparently good But like I was listening to we had bud Elliott on the podcast Monday He was talking about his blue chip ratio with Stephen Godfrey on podcasts. They played nobody and they talked about how bud tense of you transfers has damaged goods and I think that that's a Pretty accurate thing like if you're transferring you're transferring for a reason. I'm not saying You you can't be good after you transfer But your odds of being good are not as high like if you give me a five-star at a vacuum and a five-star who transferred I'm gonna pick the five-star in a vacuum over the guy who transferred so like not saying Hunter Johnson won't be good But I think that there is an extra degree of unknown that makes me Pessimistic about Northwestern this year. Well, I mean, I think you got to put the transfers in context, right? Like I'm much higher on a guy that was under Trevor Lawrence and wasn't as good as him than a guy that was say under Brian The Workie and Michigan State, right? So I think there's a lot of context there obviously this season a lot depends on Hunter Johnson and you know I'm really fascinated to see what he does against Stanford that first game. I mean, I think that's looking like one of the best games of that opening weekend That's a big test. Yeah. Yeah. No, I just I mean looking at the college Football landscape in general week one, you know, I mean or Oregon Auburn is gonna be a great game But that's one of the other games that I think Really lights up the schedule that week. Absolutely. So it'll be a fun one. But yeah, I think that I Think you're justified and feeling better about Yeah, I'm like I don't really think you know six and a half seems like a very fair point spread So before where I was thinking like oh man, why did why did I give you the points? I was like, you know It should be legit right can they win by a touchdown? Maybe maybe not so I can stand for sure too anyway So if it happens it happens Well, maybe they land on seven and we both get shirts or something right exactly exactly Do anything else you wanted to cover for today? Yeah, I wanted to talk briefly about the Kansas City chiefs okay, you know, we all know about how brilliant Pat Mahomes was last year and You look at a season like that and you have to expect regression when he gets into a sophomore year as a starter And here's one place that it might happen So Mahomes through 12 picks last year and so that was the interception rate of 2.1 percent And that's good. I mean that's below the NFL average of 2.4 percent last year When I was looking at the football outside is omelac sports infill the solutions tracks how many interceptions get dropped and Defenders drop 10 of his picks last year, which was tops in the NFL. So This is something where you're gonna see regression Maybe they're they don't have quite the the turnover luck I mean randomness plays a big role in turnovers and obviously when a defender drops a pass You know, that's an aspect of randomness. So I just see that as one area where Mahomes could you know regress and You know, maybe he develops and he stops trying to throw so much into traffic and Embraces the joy of throwing a ball away every once in a while Or maybe that becomes where this offense isn't quite as efficient as it was in in this past season Also with Kansas City, I think the defense is really an issue When I look at success rate adjusted for strength of schedule, they were 30th in the NFL last year. They were bad They were worse against the run than they were against the pass, which I guess is a good thing You know, you want to be worse against the run because passing means so much more in the NFL But there's a huge amount of change on that side of the ball as well. They bring in Frank Clark For the pass rush, but they lose Justin Houston. They lose D. Ford. They lose Eric Berry They still keep Chris Jones around and his 15 and a half sacks from last year But can the pass rush be as good this year and can the secondary hold up? This is not a unit that really graded out very well in some of the places that I've looked at So, you know, when I look at NFL win totals I'm always looking to go under those big totals looking to go over the the small totals and really more just the regression of those top teams You know, because if Pat Mahomes like continues to play like he did last year. He's gonna make Eli Manning seem like Sorry, he's gonna make Peyton Manning look like Eli Manning. I mean, he was just that good last year So I just don't think you can keep it up the wind totals at 10 and a half I mean you love going under 11, but that's nowhere to be found anymore and it kind of depends on the price You know Fanduil has it minus 135 to the under 10 and a half That's pretty steep price, but you may be able to find something better somewhere else Well, too The thing with the interceptions is when you have a quarterback who throws deep more often you're going to throw more Interceptual passes. So the fact that he threw just 12 last year is surprising And that's not to say that like it's a bad thing that he throws deep throwing deep is a very good thing But it also means that that interception number we should expect it to rise even before seeing The fact that there were 10 drop picks like I think that's totally logical to me I think like that makes a lot of sense. So It's not to say that Mahomes will be bad just to say that he may turn the ball Over more often and that makes a big difference Yeah, no exactly and turnovers obviously we all know that they can change the course of the game And it's not like I expect Mahomes to be bad and he's gonna be a top five quarterback this year. I mean Not with any certainty. I mean not with complete certainty But right, you know, he's gonna be good, but just like can he be as good as he was last year, which really propelled this team Got a lot of question marks on the offensive side of the ball as well So yeah, not repeating a historically great performance is not an indictment of you And I think that's people know people get very defensive of Pat Mahomes And I think that that's because they sometimes Mistake regression for saying a player is not as good as he was when in actuality like it's just like that It's just kind of how it goes sometimes like sometimes you can't repeat historically great performances He's an awesome player, but it still makes a lot of sense to expect regret well And we should also say like regression to me is not a perfect predictor Maybe does have a great season this year and it's fantastic and that was actually another thing I was looking up about Northwestern today like Pat Fitzgerald has some like absurd 45 and 21 record in one score games and Whenever you look at one score games, you really expect like a 50-50 record, you know This way one play can break it that way and you would keep predicting that Northwestern is going to go back to 500 and close games Well, it doesn't always work right Northwestern continues to win one score games It's also a lot of one score games just from a volume perspective well, but that's life as Northwestern right because you guys are always like somewhere between 25th and 60th usually You know, obviously, you know, some of the metrics suggested worse last year And then you're gonna get a lot of close games with the I was in the Minnesota's and whoever's in the upper-mid pack of the big 10 right and There are some teams in their division who are improving Nebraska could improve in their second year to Scott Frost Minnesota could improve too So a lot of interesting things going on there my cover in the future. We're gonna go back to NASCAR I had promised to limit this but I kind of like this bet So I'm gonna talk about it because it's our podcast We can do what we want but I want to talk about Ryan Blaney at Bristol on Saturday night because They had that race in Bristol for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup series and right now Looking at my model before practice, which gets in their way on Friday There are six drivers who are all grouped into one tier at the top my model And it doesn't view a huge degree of separation between the guy who's first there and the guy who is sixth Five of those drivers in that top six open at ten to one or shorter on Fandall Sportsbook to win in Bristol But Ryan Blaney is 16 to 1 and I think that's a pretty advantageous number because Blaney has led at least 100 laps in Every Bristol race he has run as a member of Penske racing, which he is this year as well He led the most laps here this spring He finished fourth in that race and he could have won if he and Joey Logano had not pitted under the final caution Ruined a lot of good DFS lines by doing that. So hopefully they won't do that again But he was in contention for the win there in the spring race last year He wrecked while leading he had led 100 of the first 117 laps won the opening stage in last year's fall race, too So he has been in contention each of his three trips here as a member of Penske the current form for Blaney is good He had a seventh place average running position last week in Michigan had to pit late for fuel So he didn't finish well, and I think that with Blaney More so than with other drivers You want to bet him early in the week because he does tend to be fast in practice He tends to qualify well and that's going to bring his number down So if you want to bet Ryan Blaney I would do so before practice on Friday because sports books usually close the odds When practice is underway, you're probably not going to get Ryan Blaney at shorter than 16 to 1 or at longer than 16 to 1 And I think that once the race starts Saturday night I wouldn't be shocked if Blaney is closer to 10 to 1 Than 16 and a win is something that is very much in his range of outcomes. So I would recommend some price shopping here because I actually have seen Blaney Longer than 16 to 1. I saw him at 18 to 1 in another spot. So do a little price shopping See we can get a good value on Ryan Blaney But I think that's he makes a lot of sense as a bet and if you're gonna bet him I bet him before practice and qualifying take place on Friday Ed, I know that you're not a NASCAR guy. Have you ever watched a race at Bristol? I'm not okay. It is the way I would describe it Is if you put fruit loops in a blender and turn it on high Those fruit loops aren't going to come out unscathed There's going to be a lot of a lot of bent fruit loops And I think that that's probably the way that you could describe Bristol. It's a half mile track It is the banking is like 30 degrees. I think that might be an exaggeration But it's it's pretty high And they just kind of beat the crap out of each other for 500 laps and it's pretty fought It's pretty high variance. Which is why I think that Blaney makes sense because he sure He's he's a volatile guy too. But if you're ever going to get into NASCAR I think that Bristol is one of the races I'd recommend or maybe Talladega or Daytona Yeah, that sounds good and like, you know, definitely the high variance kind of thing You know, you want hopefully that comes out in your favor and You know some of the other top contenders crash out and yeah And only one more Saturday to fill before college football we get week zero next week So that should be a whole lot of fun. We'll be back again next week to potentially talk some week zero But we'll also have some tennis on monday. So make sure you subscribe to covering the spread that is on spotify Apple podcasts wherever you get your podcast. Make sure you subscribe to get everyone right as it goes up Ed, what's going on over at the power bank for this week? Yeah, I'm the football analytics show. I had josh hermsmeyer. He writes for 538 has done a lot of awesome dfs stuff uh, just one of the best in the business in terms of Analyzing the nfl. He told me that he's an analyst not a data scientist Uh, which which was actually kicked off a great conversation about data versus film and you know, I'm a data scientist Like I dig into the data. I tend to lean on it. It's not that I don't watch film because I do I think you need to understand the context But yeah Touched on a lot of things nfl josh is a great listen. So football analytics show most recent episode Josh is also over at establish the run now too, which is pretty exciting So a good team over there. We talked to evan silva and uh, josh is a really fun addition to that Let's make sure uh, you follow ed on twitter at the power bank. I am at jim sanis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast Big thank you to calvin thea ball for running the video board for today and keeping us on the air And a thank you to keith goldner for swinging by and talking about the win odds and the divisional odds for this year Across the nfl and finally I thank you to all of you for tuning in for today. We greatly appreciate it We hope you'll tune in again next week for more covering the spread This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network