 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network For those of you who love having sports on and during work today is going to be a glorious day for you because of course the PGA Championship is teeing off right now, but also for separate baseball games throughout the day for today We're gonna talk about some bets you can sprinkle in across those four MLB games I'll talk about the two games coming up tonight and break down some NASCAR in North Wilkesboro For what should be a fun weekend. Let's dive on in now and get you ready. What should be a fun Thursday? Welcome on into covering the spread. That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire here to break down today's NLB Slating also talk about NASCAR at North Wilkesboro We'll dive on into all that here in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the covering the spread podcast Wherever you get your podcast our pregna stakes podcast with Christina Blacker is up now breaking down Christina's thoughts on this year's field her thoughts on whether mage can get the second leg of the triple crown And also her favorite win bet for Pimlico on a Saturday to get that check out the Vandal YouTube page Or check out the cover in the spread podcast feed If you like what you hear leave us a thumbs up on YouTube or leave us a five star rating over on Apple podcast The second leg of horse racing's big three is here and Fandall is the best place to bet the pregna stakes Because right now all customers can get a no-sweat pregna sped up to $20 That means you'll get up to $20 back if your win bet doesn't win bet the pregna With America's number one sportsbook just visit racing dot Fandall dot com for your chance to get a no-sweb Precna sped up to $20 this Saturday. That's racing dot Fandall dot com Age and residency restrictions apply offer valid on first win wager refund issued is non-latch rollable Racing site credit that expires on June 12th, 2023 Restrictions apply see terms at racing dot Fandall dot com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler Let's dive on it now to the MLB slate for today because it does kick off here in pretty in pretty short order There are just four games in the day for today So again want to go through those and outlines and spots we could potentially get some value for your daytime viewing Starting with the early slate I do like a couple of bets in the first game on the slate that is the Orioles and of the Angels I like the Orioles money line. It is now minus 156 It was minus 146 earlier on today But something there's value in that number and then the other one is Tyler Anderson You can get him under four and a half strikeouts That is currently at minus 108 over at Fandall sportsbook If you want to pair those together via a same game parlay that is plus 174 right now Don't mind that again, not a huge same game parlay guy But I think the odds on that one actually are pretty enticing. Let's start things off here by breaking down the money line for the Orioles I've got their win odds for today at sixty four point seven percent So the implied odds at minus one fifty six sixty point nine percent still a big enough wiggle room there for me to Feel good about the Orioles here the Angels starting Tyler Anderson who again we're talking about the strikeout department and He's been trying to rekindle last year's magic that he had with the Dodgers and He has been getting better results his past four games He's been cutting back on his forcing fastball throw more cutters I believe change ups as well and the results been better But the underlying number still pretty rough in that sample across those four starts Anderson as a five point seven two skill Interactive era his strikeout rate very low in that time too, which we'll talk about with the strikeout prop here in one second He's facing the Orioles. Their active roster has a 126 WRC plus against lefties since the start of last year So when you add in that Tyler Wells on the opposing side actually has pretty good underlying numbers I think that having confidence in the Orioles here does make a lot of sense It is a bummer that has shifted to minus 156. I still think there is value in that number so to me The Orioles a good bet for today to win this game on any money line minus 156 if handles sportsbook as always the caveat is shop around to see if you can get a Minus 146 or better still out there for them But again my number here 64 point seven percent on the Orioles as far as Anderson specifically He has been getting a bit better recently. Look at the game logs may strike out perspective He has games of six and seven strikeouts across his past three games Which is interesting especially with the number being decently low here at four and a half but one of those high strikeout games came against the Brewers who With like it's their job against lefties. So you can kind of discount that one and The other one a six strikeout game He had one strikeout in the other two games with this new approach that he's had here So I don't think he's fully fully back yet and when you pair that with the fact that He's facing an Orioles active roster with a 20.7 percent strikeout right against lefties this year It's not a great matchup. He's on the road here I expect the Orioles to do some damage with their bats So they're multiple paths from under here. He could just be a low strikeout guys He's been for most this year and was for last year as well Or he could get knocked around by a very potent Orioles offense and get chased in this game I think when you have two paths to an under that's something I want to take at minus 108 So again Anderson under four and a half strikeouts minus 108 at Vanduul sportsbook. The Orioles money line is minus 156 Pretty good bets if you want to tie them together in the same game Parley odds on that are plus 176 right now at Vanduul sportsbook not totally opposed to that but again prefer route is to go with Individual bets personally another strikeout prop I like here on this early slate is in the Mets game That's taking on the Tampa Bay Rays for today and obviously that's a tough matchup and that does play into the handicap here I like Tyler McGill under four and half strikeouts currently plus 116 at Vanduul sportsbook McGill so far this year has struggled to get both strikeouts and whiffs It's we're still the point in the year where you can see guys getting more swinging strikes than you would think based on their strike area Which could imply they're due for positive aggression That's not really the case with McGill his swinging strike rate is 8.9 percent with a 17.3 percent strikeout rate as A result of those numbers McGill has gone over four and half strikeouts just once so far this year that was back on April 1st So his first start this year AIDS active roster as a 20 or the Rays active roster has a 21.8 percent strike area against righties and Similar to the Orioles they are a threat to chase a pitcher early because they are so potent across the board When you combine How good the Rays are the fact that they are a low strikeout team with the fact that McGill not a big strikeout guy as of right now I have McGill projected for 3.9 strikeouts. I think that makes you under a pretty easy call here So McGill under four and half strikeouts plus 116 at Vanduul sportsbook I think there's good value in that number again similar to Anderson multiple paths to the under hitting and that to me is a Attractive thing with a bet so McGill under four and half 116 at Vanduul sportsbook Final strikeout prop I like for today is going to be on Trevor Williams He's facing off with the Marlins and the Marlins not a great offense Which is good for strikeout props because it should allow the guy to get deeper in the game The problem is with jazz chism out from this game The Marlins are a lower strikeout team than they otherwise are so I like Williams under four and a half strikeouts at minus 146 right now at Vanduul sportsbook. I have Williams projected for 3.5 strikeouts So well below the 5 he need to hit the over here Williams is at five strikeouts just once all year and you know It's worth noting that wasn't his most recent star because his most his most recent full start Start after that was a post or a suspension due to weather but It's not as if we're seeing Williams trend up here in the strikeout or pitch count department He just happened to have five strikeouts in that one game. So the small ones offense They're obviously not good and they do lose their best bat with jazz chism being out But they also lose one of their higher strikeout bats So when you remove jazz chism from the active roster, they have a 21.2 percent strikeout rate against righties so They become a lower strikeout team they become worse team So the odds of Williams goes deep in this game are still decently high But will he get strikeouts while going deep? That's where I run into some issues being super high in the situation So to me Williams under four and a half strikeouts minus 146 I think that makes a lot of sense and a spot in one to go So again the bets that like on the early slate are the Orioles money line at minus 156 Tyler Anderson under four and a strikeouts and minus 108 Tyler McGill under Four and a strikeouts plus 116 and then Trevor Williams under four and a strikeouts minus 146 Clearly, I am pessimistic for today taking all unders on those three strikeout props as far as the night games go The one number I like the most is the Cardinals money line at plus 128 right now at Vandals sportsbook They're taking on the Dodgers and this pitching matchup here It's Julio Rios who is pitching very well against Adam Wainwright who just came off the IL Struggled in his rehab stint and has struggled so far or two starts in the majors So that may make you ask why on earth what I want to bet the the Cardinals money line here against the Dodgers I think it's kind of baked into the number pretty fully and as a result Even if I account for Wainwright struggling or Rios being very good stuff like that I still have the Cardinals win odds at forty seven point eight percent the implied odds here 44% Wainwright again, I'm not super high on him Based on what I've seen so far But I think this could be a situation where people see the names of castee or that they see Urias They see Wainwright and realize Wainwright has been having it so far and maybe they just kind of be behind the Dodgers so Plus 128 again forty four percent implied odds I then at forty seven percent the Dodgers deserve to be favored in this game despite the fact it is on the road and This bet will hit less than 50% of the time if my numbers are correct But I do still think that uh, we can find some value in the Cardinals here So of the nightgames favorite bet for me is the Cardinals money line at plus 128 I would give some thought to the the blue jays money line at minus 130 if we got news that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Is going to play I don't think he will based on the report that we got But let's say hypothetically We get to four o'clock The blue jays lineup comes out and Vlad is in there and the money line is still minus 130 If all those things happen I would be okay taking the jays because I have some value there if I assume Vlad is in if I take him out though It's less so so Keep an eye on the jays lineup if we get Vlad in there I think that minus 130 a very fair number for them I don't think he'll play which is why I'm staying away from that for right now But I would check that out later on uh Cardinals money line at plus 128 the bet I like later on So hopefully I could see some some good bets for today across major league baseball as you're watching during work Hopefully stealthily, but I think it should set us up for a fun day of baseball Let's talk now about the NASCAR because I think it's a pretty fun weekend in the NASCAR side of things They're at North Wilkesboro And this is the first time that the NASCAR cup series has raced here Since 1996 which was before I was a NASCAR fan. I started watching in 1999 so I've never seen a race in north wilkesboro But we can still handicap this race because we know exactly what to expect here in terms of Archetype and that to me is the biggest thing what kind of bucket does this track fit into and for north wilkesboro? It is a short track about 0.6 miles. It is a flat track in terms of the banking There's actually some weird elevation changes which are kind of fun but then it's also the key characteristic here is that there is a lot of tire fall off and That to me is the defining characteristic of this track And it's going to be the defining characteristic that I use when trying to bet the NASCAR all-star race For those of you who do not know about the NASCAR all-star race having it right up on the format for this year They're going to set the starting order for the heat races all on a friday They're going to have a pit crew competition which will set the starting order for the heat races There'll be two separate heat races and the heat races will be similar to if you remember Daytona The dual races where one dual race at the inside row one dual race at the outside row And that's how they set the field for the race So That'll be the way the starting order is set and then also during the race It's actually a pretty straightforward format where they'll have a like a half time break 100 laps in but it's a 200 lap race There are no like weird inverts or anything like that That means relative to other all-star races I believe this one is probably easier to handicap than others even though It is taking place at a track. We have not seen again since I was five years old So I actually think this one is pretty easy to handicap What's interesting about that though is that I believe bookmakers are viewing this as being a Unpredictable race because look at Kyle Larson. Uh, he is the favorite now right now at fandall sports book he is seven to one and Larson has been you know Six five to one or so the past couple of weeks. So you are getting a discount there even though the field is smaller There will be 24 cars in this field after the open qualifiers advance to this race and I have dummy cars in there in my model Basically the three best cars in the open race are in my model for the all-star race to kind of give me some Cover in case the worst-case scenario happens in the three strongest cars advance I want to know okay worst-case scenario. What will cal larson's win odds be for this race and When I run my model I show value on a couple guys now when I was taking notes on Uh prepare my notes for today last night I thought I'd be unwilling byron because he was 10 to one at the time of fandall sports book I thought that was a great number was willing to take that Overnight he shortened to plus 750 which could be a bummer That could be a bummer because it means that Byron. I don't believe is any longer a value for me At 10 to 1 now he is our 750. So he's no longer a value for me there However, fandall as a good book maker would do Lengthened odds of other drivers in order to account for the fact that Byron's odds are shorting They weren't just increasing the hold on you So a couple drivers lengthened one of those drivers was kyle larson out to seven to one I think that even with a lot of uncertainty and even with practice to come on friday The heat races I want to take the seven to one right now on kyle larson the implied odds At seven to one for larson 12.5 percent. I am at 14.2 percent So almost two percentage points of edge on larson Which means even if things don't go perfectly for him in the pick crew competition or in practice on friday The odds that i'm still showing value are pretty high The reason my numbers love larson is he is very good on slick tracks. That's kind of how I view Tracks that are like this where the tire fall off is so great He comes from a dirt racing background Which means when the car gets tougher to handle larson will be very much. Okay We saw him have a great car in darlington as he always does great car He's always great in homestead, which is another track with a lot of tire fall off runs well in fontana He had a good race in richman this year Even though it's not traditionally been his best track definitely not a bad track for him, but Shown improvement there So basically every track with a lot of tire fall off is one where larson has a threat to win He also did win in martins though, which is another short flat track if you want to skew more that direction For this race So larson has had terrible luck so far this year. He's still won. I think twice Despite his awful luck. He could have realistically five wins already so far this year so Getting him at seven to one here. I think is a gift and it's a gift that I want to take so to me right now Kyle larson seven to one a good value and it's a nice way to Make up at the back. We couldn't get William Byron at ten to one Larson is one of the guys his odds lengthened. He was a plus six fifty He lengthened to seven to one the other guy who lengthened it's also now a value for me That guy is resting at 14 to one at vandal sportsbook And I was going to take chesting to podium in this race. He was three to one He's actually still three to one to podium But now that he's gone from 12 to one to 14 to one to win I'm going to take that that pushes him his implied odds to win down to 6.7 percent I have chesting winning 10.5 percent of the time That's a huge gap and the reason that my numbers are high on chesting is that he had a good car in darlington Obviously he and larson decided to Tangle toward the end so it did not pay off and chesting has not won since talladega last year He's not won on an oval non non drafting track ever in the cup series So maybe i'm dumb being as high on him But he was also good beyond darlington and richman in fontana as well I think he's probably going to be starting off pretty high in the heat race because his picker is among the best in the sport right now So the picker competition friday night should put him in a good spot for the heat race Should be able to maintain track position there I think that this number is too good to pass up so If I were forced to pick between betting chesting at 14 to 1 and larson at 7 to 1 I would pick chesting at 14 to 1 Because I think the odds is the odds his odds get longer or pretty low larson might I doubt it But like he might whereas chesting I don't think that's going to happen So to me for the all-star race the main event on Sunday night I like kyle larson 7 to 1 Ross chesting 14 to 1 if you can still get fire in 10 to 1 which I doubt I would take that but Based on the current fandal odds larson and chesting are the first bets now Fandal also does have odds up for the all-star open race and I do show value right now in tie gives tie gives is plus 360 to win at fandal sports book I have tie at 25 percent to win The all-star open which might seem like a lot, but it's a joe gibbs racing car Gibbs has showed a lot of speed recently not a ton of great competition in this event josh barry is there and josh barry Is well suited for this track. I would think and he's in a hundred car But I prefer I think gibbs is better personally so I do show value in Gibbs the reason i'm not taking it at plus 360 is because The picker competition will set the starting order for this race And unlike the all-star main events there are no heat races for the open Which means if gibbs's team has an issue in the Qualifying or in the picker competition He's gonna start in the back if kevin harvick messes up his team messes up in the picker competition He can make up for that in the heat race on saturday. There is no safety net here for the open drivers so I don't think gibbs's odds will get shorter should his team be fast in the picker competition Let's say he starts first. He's probably still going to be Roughly plus 360 but the downside here is pretty big so If you need a reference point in terms of betting gibbs later on I have his win odds at 25.6 percent He is 52.5 percent to podium and 41 percent to advance via finishing first or second not via the fan vote not that he'd win that anyway, but if you can find markets available 41 percent to race's way in 52.5 percent to podium 25.6 percent to win based on my numbers for ty gibbs in the open race He is the one guy i'm primarily focused on michael mcdowell is a slight value for me He is at 16 to 1 rather wait till we get the numbers from practice uh on friday before diving into him so I think gibbs is a guy i'll probably bet i've not done so yet But I would bet that I will wind up there at some point I just want to wait until after the picker competition and case things go poorly there to safeguard myself We also have the truck series racing here on saturday at north wilkesboro and this field is disgusting It has kyle larson. It has ross chest eight. It has bumblewalls. It has william byron christopher bell all on top of the truck series regular So this field is absolutely loaded, which means the odds are flatter than usual for the top end guys So we have to account for that when we're trying to decide which guys want to bet And even with the field being loaded I'm still showing value christopher bell at six to one to win this race and I'm willing to take that on bell bell six to one byron plus 350 larson plus 270 and the interesting thing for me is that I view larson and bell as being in somewhat similar equipment bell's driving for hatori one of the Toyota teams over in the truck series tyler anchorman the primary guy there And anchorman's a guy I've bet a couple times this year. I think that he's actually okay So a decent equipment prior on hatori. It's not great. It's not kbm which Byron is in but I'm not sure what to think about spire because They've had good races like last year at martinsville. William Byron is in the spire truck started dead last with no practice No qualifying and won the race But outside of that they haven't had any like pop pop performances So i'm a little bit lower on larson's equipment I think than the books are when they have my plus 270 and I've even being in somewhat equal equipment to bell But the betting odds skew pretty heavily towards larson as for Byron I do have him as a favorite for this race in the kbm truck because that is the best team in the series Byron's win odds for me 24.5 percent is implied odds are 22.2 So he has a value based on my numbers But bell is the bigger value at 17.1 to win versus the implied odds at 14.3 percent The reason it's high in bell is because he is tremendous on slick tracks similar to larson has that dirt racing background and He's great on short flat tracks, which is again where north wilkesboro falls into you look at his xfinity series record at New Hampshire Richmond phoenix stuff like that. He has been phenomenal and in the cup series. We've seen that translates to a lesser extent as well So you put bell down the truck series put his odds at six to one I think that's pretty enticing. So I will take bell six to one To win the truck series race, uh, I think that's the best bet as of right now Value on on Byron, but not quite there as of right now as far as other bets I like in the truck series race. No other outrides. I want to take a faddle sports book But looking elsewhere you can get some top five bets I have like ross chest aim plus 225 and steward freason at four to one. This is I think the third straight week We've been on freason, uh, but it's worked out so far. He finished runner up last week to cash At four to one his implied odds are 20 percent. I have freason at 22.4 percent So it's not a huge value, but I like his talent like uh his skill a lot, especially on slick tracks He is a dirt racing background. Again, I kind of like that a lot at this kind of track As for chest aim things have not gone well for him so far in the niece racing trucks But a lot of it's been equipment related or uh been, you know Attrition related. I still think that he's good enough to win in this equipment So I actually have chest aim at 44 percent to finish top five. Uh, he's again He's plus 225 to finish there at at other books I doubt there are 31 percent so I'm well above market on chest aim as I have been Several times so far this year, but I think I'm okay with that He might not be able to beat Byron bell and marsen But I think you can get a top five, especially when it's out there plus 225 So bets of the truck series bell to win six to one chest aim top five plus 225 freason top five Four to one and then also taking uh larson to win the all-star main event at seven to one Chest aim to win at 14 to one and monitoring tie gibbs likely taking him But I want to wait till post pit crew competition before doing so That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread again should be a pretty fun day checking out the pga championship Watching some baseball and then uh watching nascar for tomorrow I can always get on board with that kind of work day Do not forget to subscribe to the covering the spread podcast feed and check us out over on the Fandall youtube page you get the preqs preakness stakes podcast with christina blacker getting her read on this year's field If you got questions for me, I'm on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s you can also follow the fandall podcast network at fandall podcast I want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your mlb That's for today. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow This has been covering the spread right here on the fandall podcast network