 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network The playoff race is heating up across the NFL. We've got some huge huge games in week number 15 We got dolphins bills. We got Seahawks 49ers going on tonight We got Titans chargers Giants commanders all with big big big playoff implications We're gonna break down all those games and other bets We like for week number 15 by talking to Ryan Williams getting his read on these big games and letting you know Where he sees value at Fandall sportsbook This is covering the spread right here on the fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim saw this. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as mentioned by Ryan Williams Check him out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W. Ryan. You've gotten awesome week on tap. How you doing today? Oh, I'm doing well, man I'm doing well. Like I said, we only got a couple of these weeks left So this is really grind time grind season before we get into the post season this this is fun stuff, man We got yeah, this is a fun slate. We got a lot of fun games to talk about This is the best time of year for me when we have playoff implications So I'm ready to get after it with you, Jim And there are many boring windows like we start things off with I think a banger on Thursday night with the 49ers Seahawks We don't typically talk to Thursday game, but I will I will toss in you know Really some thoughts on that game in a bit. We get the Dolphins bills to cap off Saturday I think Vikings Colts is somewhat interesting to and then Ravens Browns is what it is And then even during the Sunday early window where we're typically like, okay, you know Just checking DFS lineups not the best game We still get Lions Jets and like that game and we get Cowboys Jaguars like that's a good window, too So I'm pretty stoked about this week We'll break down where we're seeing value across those games in just a bit But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We put up our college football Bowl preview show with Dr. Ed Fang breaking down strategies for your bowl pools Some Betsy likes for these bowl games teams he thinks are undervalued for the ESPN College football Bowl pick-up games and all that stuff. So that is up on this feed already We're gonna add back tomorrow to break down the World Cup final between France and Argentina getting his thoughts on that and also talk to JJ Zacharyson about week 15 player props get that by subscribing to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast But also check us out over on the fendal YouTube page with only a handful of Monday night football games remaining this season Fandal and visa are coming together to make sure the excitement surrounding Monday nights is at an all-time high Introducing Monday night perfect picks presented by visa a free-to-play contest on fendal that gives you a chance to win a share of $10,000 in cash prizes courtesy of visa here's how it works You'll be presented with 10 questions centered around on-field action for Monday nights NFL game Fans who answer the most questions correctly when they're share of the $10,000 prize pool It is that easy the contest is now live So head to fandal.com slash free slash contest slash visa perfect picks and make your picks before Monday night That's fandal.com slash free slash contest slash visa perfect pick no purchase necessary age and location restrictions apply Void were prohibited see terms at fandal.com visa and its financial institutions have not sponsored or offered this promotion in any way Let's dig it now to week 15 and talk about the the impact of playoff implications Ryan because some teams have everything on the line some have none and That can definitely taint the lines because that can I mean it should matter You know guys are human if there's nothing on the line that might not care as much But we will see times where like week 18 last year with the Colts Jaguars where a team That needs to win doesn't so when you're betting these games where there may be lopsided Motivation how much does that factor into how you handicap to have a game? Oh, it's huge I mean just from the standpoint of when you're talking about especially these games that have close spreads to them You know like it will talk about it later, but the Titans and Chargers I mean, I mean you're you're expecting these teams to go after it to go for it We saw that last week with there being a lot of one score games as well as playoff implications We're on the line not as many as I would probably like for my card But you know, I know I digress. Yeah, it's huge for for me Especially when we're talking about explosive teams for the over as well, too I mean whether we'll play a factor we talked about that you talk about all the time last week But yeah, especially now that we're real well into December That does start playing a factor for some of these outside games But at the end of the day, you know, if the teams got if they're in a close battle and got a score That's really what I look for. So yeah, we have a lot of playoff implications coming in on on this week And so that pretty much are the games that I like to target and not the ones where you know, you can get weird stuff Happening with people who are off the bench or rookie's playing or things of that nature Or we don't have enough data on the season for them I think this is one of the areas where I factor in the eye test the most because you can often tell How engage a team is like I think the Rams are good example heading into last week or it was when they were playing I think it was the the Seahawks game. They're facing Seahawks And you look there's like a sideline shot on Bobby Wagner's like losing his mind I'm like, oh man, they're like unraveling and I was like, oh geez here here comes for the Rams But then they hold the shot longer and you see he's pumping them up and the defense is like super into it It's like, oh Even though their season is over they're engaged. They're trying they're they're making a push And then we saw that again Thursday night against the Raiders. They push for all four quarters So I think that eye test for me factors in a bit more here trying to judge whether or not the teams that are eliminated are checked out like I guess this is not a good example because they are still probably gonna win their division But like the Bucks look checked out like Mike Evans at times kind of know it's a very odd situation So I don't like to use eye test always as like a key driver But I think for these situations I want to judge whether team is still engaged and if they're not That situation can take advantage of or if they are I can handicap that game straight up and Play it based on that. So that's kind of the way I will will play things there Let's talk about this Thursday night game because it is kind of a banger We got the 49ers and the Seahawks 49ers are now three point favorites that has come down for three and a half the Money line there is down to minus 176 Seahawks are at 148 now Ryan I talked on Tuesday, but how I like the Seahawks money line. It was plus one fifty four I believe at that time so a tiny bit of movement, but not much. I'm still showing value in the Seahawks What's your read on this game 49ers and Seahawks? Yeah, I mean it's tough because I was not on the sea or not on the sea It's not on the 49ers bandwagon last week they disappointed I mean was on the Seahawks bandwagon have been for a while. They disappointed me as well But this is this is Seattle Super Bowl I mean when you're looking at the NFC standings and what it means on the bubble and the playoff picture like they're right behind Washington and the Giants who are playing against each other this week So they need to come out and bring it now. They're gonna have 12 behind them. I do think that they somewhat bounce back I know that they were dealing with a lot of injuries. You love that kind of Walker is going to be back for the Seahawks The thing that does worry me. I did like the hook here when it was being given with the 49ers because Of the way that they've been able to control the ball And we know what the 49ers want to do and they've been able to make that a point with Brock Purdy is run the ball The Seahawks cannot stop the run if you know if their life defended on it The Carolina Panthers just ran 40 times On this team and really were able to make life miserable for them. So it is gonna come down to Gino I do like that they do have the home crowd behind them though And we get to see Brock Purdy on the road instead of having the 49ers, you know, fandom behind him So we'll see what he can do for right now for me I'll just get the points with Gino, but it was a little bit favorable when we were getting that point half point It's Brock Purdy on the road But also with no Devo and I think that like I I liked Brock Purdy when he was a freshman at Iowa State I did not like my Brock Purdy post freshman year at Iowa State. There was no progression there So like I'm not anti Brock Purdy. I just am skeptical of a guy who felt that far in the draft Now has one less weapon now going on the road I think they'll be the run the ball at will like you said, but I still think that Seattle is the right side here So I'm glad to hear we're in that game the exact same way. Let's now go to the Saturday games Talk about the Dolphins at the bills. This one is also moved. It was seven and a half now down to seven Total is up to 43 and a half. It was 42 and a half on Wednesday And I think the reason why this spread was so big initially is obviously because to a tongue of a loa Not just the fear of the weather with the winds being high temperature being low But also he's struggled a lot the past two weeks Can they write the ship here and cover a pretty big spread against the bills? Yeah, it's it's it's gonna be tough For them on the on the road here I mean, especially when we're talking about December and where they need to go to travel and you know They've been they've been traveling a lot I mean the Miami was on the West Coast for a little bit and now they come back East Coast But it's in Buffalo and it's a pretty harsh thing to go from staying on the UCLA campus between those two games now going to Buffalo, that's that's a that's a harsh transition Yeah, and so, you know, they had they've had had some success against this Miami team the bills That is which is why I like the seven here I mean, yeah, the the offense is is struggling only 126 passing yards from to a last week Definitely devastating there, but the bills on a five game winning streak Against the Miami Dolphins Sean McDermott is nine and two versus the Miami Dolphins like in his tenure Now, I know that doesn't really speak much to the spread But when we're talking about playoff implications when we're talking about the AFC number one seed picture being on tap for the bills And this being a divisional divisional matchup This is this is kind of where I start to get excited because we we know that the dolphins have the pieces of the kind of state in this game if they want to even though I'm interested in the seven there I am also interested in the over a 42 and a half because There's going to come a point when it's just going to be onto a like if the running backs unable to get it going We've seen Mike Daniel, Mike McDaniel actually have the propensity to throw more in these situations where the team needs to get more out of it And you know, for whatever it's worth The bills have been playing better at home But Josh Allen has been making some mistakes down the stress down the stretch and this is some opportunistic defensive pieces on the dolphin side So I do think this makes for a fun matchup on Sunday I'm willing to take the the bills now that it's seven instead of seven and a half I think that's you know a key number enough for me where you know we can see a last minute touchdown from Josh Allen and we can get that cover But yeah, I think the bills are firing off cylinders right now the dolphins got to prove it to me so let's go bills seven Yeah, with the total I show value in the over there as well I just built out a total model like very recently so take this is a grain of salt but it has the total for this game at forty four point or forty five point four So almost two points of value relative to forty three and a half and that does account for wind because I as you know like wind a lot So it does account for the wind and it's still showing the over there which I think is why we see it's moving towards that direction My numbers like the dolphins here but I refuse to bet it I absolutely will not I don't hate myself that much I like to a I think that to a is a fun quarterback I wanted to succeed but again I test kind of thing last weeks have been like it looks like he has the yips Like that's what it looks like to me and if I have that concern layered on top of the weather concerns where it actually is high wind speeds doesn't the biggest arm strength that might be tough in the situation they can't run the ball Jeff Wilson has a practice the first two game first two days of practice I have value but I refuse to take it so if I were to play something this game I'd be more inclined to play the over forty three and a half But probably not doing that either I just it's it gives me the heebie jeebies so I think that you've you've you've got that one well covered for us there Let's go down to the Titans of the Chargers this one's I think more fun I have no play in this game but I think it's a fun game We got the Chargers favorite by three total is forty seven and a half in the Chargers beat the Dolphins last week to keep their playoffs hope alive playoff hopes alive Titans past two games really disappointing and Traylon Berkson practice once again on Wednesday so can the Titans keep pace here can the Chargers not show the wind to keep their playoff hopes alive what's your read on this game Yeah so I mean the you know that the juxtaposition for me on this game because I usually you know I don't really like taking the Chargers when they're a favorite even though that it's you know three maybe I'd rather like it at two and a half But that you know I always take the Titans especially off of a loss you know when they when they you know have when they're coming off of a loss with Mike Brable as the head coach love the love the over on this game just for the start I mean the Titans have defense has been allowing points and bunches and the way that Justin Herbert's been playing and throwing You know it's frustrating that the touchdowns haven't been there but this guy has been absolutely slinging the rock I mean what he was able to do last week against Miami with the you know completion for 75% completion percentage on 50 throws is incredible I am willing to get the Chargers minus three here they the Titans this is a funny stat that I had seen the Titans since moving to Tennessee. So like becoming from the Houston Oilers to the Tennessee Titans and even with Baltimore they're two and nine against the Chargers for whatever that's worth. So they have struggled against this team historically. The Chargers you know from an offensive propensity standpoint like if we can you know we're going to get another week of Mike Williams back like Joshua Palmer. When I Keenan Allen's been that's his security blanket like this Titans defense like I saw enough last week against Trevor Lawrence to know that like anytime they're playing against a prolific offense going forward. It's going to be tough. Now you know we look at Derek Henry on the other side and Derek Henry you know he was for 120 yards last week and the Titans got a loss and that's only the second time that that's happened since he's been with the team over the past couple years under Mike Brable. So you know you like to think that if Derek Henry gets going that's enough but I just really don't feel like the Titans have enough offensive pieces to make this a go and then with the with the other side of things. Just the way the defense is playing like the Chargers could help drive this total in it of themselves. They need to keep their playoff hopes alive so I'm willing to go the Chargers here against the. Yeah I think this game is fascinating because on both sides. It's a like a it's a match of disadvantage for the defense because the Titans secondary sinks and the Chargers can't run. So it doesn't matter that the Titans are good against the rush because the tight the Chargers don't care like they can't run the ball against anyone except the Browns that's the only thing they can run against. So it's going to be Mike Williams Keenan Allen Josh Palmer like you said against a pretty rough secondary advantage for the Chargers offense there on the opposing side though the Chargers couldn't stop the run if they put 16 dudes in the box and they're facing Derek Henry. I know how how is that going to go for them now. I talked about I just built a total model it says that the under here I'm not doing that because because when I think about this game it's like I think both teams should be able to move the ball pretty effectively and how do they get stops so. So I think honestly I think that you're reading the total 47 and a half makes a lot of sense because it's just a stylistic mismatch on both sides where I think both teams will be able to move the ball in the way they want to move the ball. Can the opposing defense make adjustments to counteract that I'm skeptical because they've known about these weaknesses all year and yet it's not been able to correct it so. My numbers as far as the side goes to a very efficient number actually if you even my two models Chargers by 2.69 and Chargers by 3.32 it's almost exactly three so stay away from me on that regard but. I think we should see some fun offense here and I think it'll be a delight of a game and like just from like a fan perspective. I grew up a Jets fan so like I should be reading for the Jets but if I had to choose between watching Mike White and Justin Herbert and the playoffs. And Mac Jones I think you know which one I'm going to take there so we're Chargers fans the next couple of weeks at least on my end. Let's finish up with the Sunday night game giants at commanders commanders are four and a half point favorites here total is 40 and a half we saw this match up two weeks ago and they tied. I had the Giants money line there and they pushed so that was true to light should have taken spread dummy but what can we learn from that game in trying to bet this one on Sunday night. Yeah I just the Giants you know they just aren't doing it for me as of late you know we got the quarterback roulette they're going on with Daniel Jones and Tara Taylor and the commanders you know we get a little rest here for them. They are at home I mean this you know talk about playoff match up like these two teams are fighting for pretty much that same spot in the NFC with the record tied and it being a divisional game. I could understand why people would think you know under here because you know the way the Washington defense has been playing over the past couple of weeks like it makes it tough to think that the Giants are going to get anything going like this because the Washington defense was able to hold you know the Eagles down earlier this season and like the Eagles just throttled this Giants team and it was not even a contest. So you know in Taylor Heineken we trust this week I mean this guy has been absolutely balling for them you know they think they're one five one and one with him starting this year they're two and four without him playing so you've been the catalyst for this team I think you know when you see that the quarterback is out there willing to win as you mentioned the Rams earlier when Baker Mayfield came in and kind of lit that spark like Taylor Heineken has been the spark for this team that they've needed. So you know I think I'm riding here with the commanders at minus four and a half. Yeah my numbers do show value in the Giants again I bet their money line should I have great question don't know. But my model hasn't been super high in the Giants most of this year. I just check back now and there have been three spots where it's only to bet the Giants one of those week one against the Titans they won that game outright I believe. And then the other one was against Washington in week number 13 where I got the push in the money line but did cover versus the spread so this hasn't been a spot where my numbers been super high on this Giants team. And I find that encouraging I guess because I think that there's actually like a lot of value here because my numbers have the commanders by point two one and the commanders by one point six one. So both models pretty high on the Giants here. It does make me nervous. You were talking about Rod Taylor I was sitting next to a Giants fan on Sunday watching that game after they benched Danny Downs because the game was like out of hand and try to tell him and I was like yeah he's got a two year contract could be interesting bridge quarterback. And I was like kind of like hyping up to Rod and he immediately fumbled like two seconds after I said that stuff so thank you to Rod for making me look like a moron. But I don't like I don't want to like this Giants team. But I kind of do. Daniel Bellinger got in a limited practice on Wednesday seems like he should be good to play. I don't think Richie James will go with that concussion. But I don't know man it's it's hard to get a read in this game I kind of wish I had stayed away just because like I don't feel good about betting the Giants but like. I've done well on games that I didn't feel good about this year like back testing games or I was like I don't really want to bet this and like. They had good results so like I don't know man like I kind of wish I hadn't because I feel weird about this haven't gotten a lot of movement in my favor yet but like. I guess we're just in on Daniel Jones what could possibly go wrong right. This is a tough week for you Jim this is the most I've heard you say stay away back. Yeah hard as we've been talking. Well one of them is because RFUs. I'm very okay with the Gino bet I want to make that clear the Gino bet the Seahawks money line I'm okay with no sweat on that one. I can I can live with that one betting on Gino Smith. There was a lot different emotionally than betting on Daniel Jones. So I know it's weird to say but I don't know we'll see how it goes. Hopefully I don't know I don't know man I just just let it be over quick like if I'm going to lose let it be done quick so I can just check out for the rest Sunday night and go on from there but we'll see how that one plays out on Sunday night. Okay Ryan what else is he in a cross week 15 over a fan of sportsbook. Oh man. Jim I don't know if we can do it but I'm looking back at the Bucks again. You know we talk about teams just off of a loss and especially of a loss of this magnitude on the road now you're getting back at home. I mean I'm not going to say like emotions riding high because Tom Brady's from the Bay Area. Yeah like whatever and they have you know you talk about the eye test yes they have looked poorly. But you know at some point it's got to be crunch time. I mean you know the football gods have been doing whatever they want to do to keep the Buccaneers throughout this whole season. Everything that's gone wrong like they are still atop of their division in the NFC South just because of how bad that division is. So at some point maybe maybe we're able to ride the ship now if all things were in a perfect world like the Bengals getting three and a half here would be a slam dunk. But like is T Higgins going to be going. Tyler board left the game last week. Hayden Hurst still looks like he's not going to be able to play. So I mean yeah like it's going to be mixed in in Jamar Chase but also on the road and we know how tough it is to kind of run on this defense. I think that you know obviously San Fran was able to take them to the woodshed last week but I think that they'll get back into the get back to the drawing board and really be able to fix that. So because they're at home getting that three and a half that's what interests me. And there are a lot of injuries on the Bengals side still I know that T Higgins and Tyler Boyd were at practice yesterday. I think Tyler Boyd is almost a guarantee to sit and like if T Higgins plays like there's no guarantee he plays again like that's just like so annoying the way that worked. Both guys officially listed as limited for that practice yesterday as he said Hayden Hurst probably not going to play this week either so the Bengals a lot of injuries stacking up over there. The Bucks not going to get Tristan worse back most likely this week Vita Vaya also might sit but like I think that you're on the correct side here in terms of like what team is showing value I think that that you're right but like you said it's just like it's very tough to like actually click like submit that you know on this Bucks team. So I understand where you read is coming from on that one and you know what we're both we're both taking gross sides this week we have to embrace embrace the suck and see what happens embrace the suck. I love it. I love it. Yeah other than that you know just lines is getting better up and you know I get it because of the two teams who are playing but like Jerry Goff has been absolutely abysmal on the road on a road outside like this just feels like trouble for the line. It's just like games of stay away from me where it would usually be something that I'd be interested in. But the other game I wanted to touch on touch on was Cowboys Jaguars Cowboys going into Jacksonville Jacksonville has been they've been real and they showed me enough last week to make it feel like if they were able to put all the pieces together like let's let's get things going and you know for whatever it's worth like this Dallas offense has just been able to kind of cruise because the defense has been giving them you know so many opportunities to succeed and they've you know been heavy favorites over the past couple weeks so let's see what it's like in a close game on the road here the Cowboys are also dealing with injuries across the board especially on the defensive side of things so this is a fun one where I'm like where you know where can I watch this full game like even sacrifice red zone to be able to just see this game because it's just such a fun one that I think will have and I'm willing to get Cowboys on the or I'm willing to take Jacksonville points on this one. I talked about this Tuesday how I was considering the Jags Moneyline I finally gave in yesterday and did do it. Jags Moneyline has been good to me this year and I'm feeling it again so I love the Cowboys I think they're a very good football team respect them a lot think they're like legit as Super Bowl contenders but like Trevor Lawrence at plus 176 kind of into it so I think we're on the same side there rooting for the Jags once again for this week. That's all we got here for covering the spread for week number 15 we'll talk about player props tomorrow with JJ Zacharyson and World Cup as well but Ryan we're not going to talk to you for a couple weeks because you got to go do some fun stuff. So I want to wish you best of luck with all of that. Good luck with your bets if you're able to still find time to jam some in this time happy holidays to you and your family and hopefully we'll talk to you again. I mean not terribly to some future but good luck to all of you. Yeah absolutely Jim no need to bury the lead I'll be a dad here and a couple. I didn't know if you wanted to like dive all its personal info but I love it okay. It's all right just becoming a dad I think that's all that needs to be said. So yeah be fun one but yeah Christmas is coming early here for the Williams family so I appreciate the shout out Jim and yes I can't wait to go through all that and have the excitement and then hopefully come back for a little bit and then we can talk about it. We'll get into postseason and that'll be fun. So good luck to everybody this week and I'll catch you on the flip side sometime. Yeah and congrats in advance to both of you. Hope it all goes well let me know and we'll talk again once everything is more settled out there. Check out Ryan on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W. I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J. I. M. S. A. N. N. E. S. Make sure once again you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast we'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down player props and the World Cup final. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network.