 The Tom O'Brien show is produced every business day. Tom takes your phone calls toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. Let's go to our man Alan Homo Sasa. What's going on brother? Isn't it wonderful? I went ahead and invested in your, uh, Tiger dollars and I went ahead and got your gold report for a year. And also your morning, your, your call letter and stuff like that. And I got over 50% return in one day, not counting, uh, everything else. But I just want to thank you. Tom's not perfect, but he tells you how to put your stops in and keeps your losses small. You can take your small losses, but then all of a sudden you'll be like Dave Roode and you'll pay the whole month. I mean a big home run and put the money in your pocket. Okay, brother. You're awesome, man. Thank you. Now Tom O'Brien. What's going on folks? This is Jacob, uh, filling in for Tom. All right, let's, let's look at what's going on. We kind of have like a sideways market rocking here. Um, DIA only up a little bit, NDX up not even a percent spy up half a percent. Um, it's moving sideways. The dollar is, um, staying pretty stable, but still at that 102 area, gold is popping. That's definitely the big player of the recent times. Let's look at, um, I want to take a look at steel dynamics because last time I was on, uh, we were looking at this retest of the last day with volume. And so it did reject it, but not with a lot of volume itself. So that's yet to be seen. What kind of pans out with this? We can take a look into new core and see how that's shaken out as well. Again, a little bit of upward movement with light volume. I still think looking into the steels, uh, in the, just the metal sector in general is, uh, it could be profitable. Um, all right, let's take a look. So there is a relatively new treasury bond ETF T bill. Now this has a weird structure, um, which helps fund managers kind of offload some, uh, taxes that they have. But what's important, what's interesting about this is we were speaking last time, uh, about the flight out of banks into money market funds and kind of flowing into treasury bills as well. Um, so what's interesting about this ETF itself is, um, in the, uh, something in the, in a single day, that's right, on Tuesday, um, registered inflows of $582 million. And that's according to Bloomberg, uh, that pushed the funds asset under management of 1.15 billion. So that's, I mean, almost double. It's interesting to see this kind of flight in here. Uh, banks still are obviously having some issues. Your regional ones are still having a lot of problems. Uh, poor FRC. And I, you know, again, I was saying there's some people who took the buy right around here thinking that was going to bump up and it just kept going down. And I'm not sure how much gas it has left to go down. I mean, you have a lot of volume going on this. Um, but you know, any kind of bump in the foreseeable future to a point that matters unless you bought at the bottom, probably isn't going to happen. Um, there's some other weird stuff going on in the banks today. Um, let's see the French, uh, actually rated five of their banks in a Paris tax fraud case. So, um, the raids come as part of five preliminary investigations opened in December of 2021 on allegations of money laundering and tax fraud linked to dividend payments. The French National Financial Prosecutor's Office said in a statement. Um, so we're not sure what the kind of outcome of this raid is yet, but their five large banks, um, really are getting looked at. So that's HSBC, PNB, Paribas, Exane, uh, societal general, and then the Texas bank. Um, we'll go a little bit more into, so when I was, you know, this popped up and I was, I was curious, you know, how much of this is really going on, especially with such a money's monetary supply is contracting now, obviously, but we had such a large explosion. And so how much, um, essentially fraud is going around. And I found this study that was released recently by the National, um, Institute of Economic Research, excuse me, National Bureau of Economic Research, and that goes a little bit into, uh, tax dodging. Um, it's pretty insightful. Uh, let's see here. As far as other smaller news, Toyota executive expects average new car prices to exceed 50,000 in 2023. So, again, with these labor supply chains, we're going to keep seeing this happen. And, um, I mean, like, what can you say, right? I just helped, um, one of my friends, uh, get the, get their self a car. Um, they had to buy a used car. Um, the prices are just insane. And cash flow is a serious problem for a lot of Americans. So you end up having to do, like, long-term loans, you know, six years, seven years on, um, used vehicles, right? These newer vehicles going to 50,000 is going to be a massive issue. And we're probably going to see, um, maybe a little bit more inflation with, with used vehicles because of that. Um, it says in this article in February, average new car prices reached a new peak, jumping by 4.8% from years ago to 46,229. That's according to JD Power. Uh, Toyota's North American Division, uh, head of sales Jack Hollis said that he believes the average transaction price will crest the 50,000 mark in 2023. I don't know, guys, that's not, that's not phenomenal, especially at a time where we might see some more major layoffs and, uh, kind of contraction and wage growth. What else do we have? Let's see. Ford is high, again, the same within this line. Ford is hiking the prices of its F-150 Lightning. Uh, we were kind of speaking a little bit, um, on some of their issues rolling out electric vehicles last time I was on, um, excuse me. Uh, but so yeah, they had a battery fire in February and that kind of halted some production. I think they're back up again. Um, this is nuts. So Ford has said that the standard range Lightning Pro, okay, a lower cost version of the truck, optimized for fleet use. Here, let's see if I can pull it. Well, let's get this guy up. All right, so they said that their standard range Lightning Pro, lower cost version of the truck, optimized for fleet use, will now start at just under $60,000 and that's not including shipping. I spoke about this guy, oh man, a few months ago saying it was really cool they were getting in, uh, to this market. Um, but that's, that price is roughly 50% higher than the Lightning Pro's original start price at launch last spring. How you miss that is pretty insane to me. I would love to get kind of a little bit more insight. I don't know if they were just kind of, you know, you have so much nowadays where you kind of just, you, you, um, it's the hype around the product, right? You announce it, so we're going to do it here and the consumer gets so hooked on it, the idea of, of, of having something like this. And this happens in video games, it happens with, it happened with Tesla, um, and these prices just keep hiking up. So the starting price for the Lightning in the top of the line Platinum edition, okay, um, is now almost a hundred grand for a pickup truck. I don't know who's buying that. I don't know what, I mean, this is going to have some kind of serious impact on their bottom line in the future. I mean, there's no way, who knows, maybe people will buy this, you're gonna have to wait to see I suppose, but in my opinion this is going to, this is pretty prohibitive for a lot of people. Um, when we get back, we'll look a little bit, uh, into what China's doing. They have, they have a lot of interesting things going on regarding, uh, their bricks arrangements and kind of their Belt and Road initiative and how they are positioning themselves in the world regarding energy and all that. So folks stay tuned and we'll be right back. Currencies, commodities and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the forex markets every Monday using his 30 plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, forex, stocks and options. Teddy releases his weekly Tiger Forex report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs, including the dollar index, the euro dollar, pound dollar, dollar Swiss, dollar yen, as well as many more. 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Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today, tfnn.com, educating investors. All right, before we hop into the whole China discussion, I thought this was really interesting. So it says the EU looks at investing frozen Russian assets to raise cash for the Ukraine. You know, another thing I'll touch on later is kind of looking at some of the defense stocks and everything and a lot of everything's priced in. The way that these kind of programs work is at least on the US side. All of the technology, the equipment, the weapons that we're giving to the Ukrainians is done on a loan, essentially, right? These aren't like donations. Ukraine is going to owe the West quite a bit of money after this war is done, right? On top of that, their infrastructure is completely leveled. This is an interesting idea by the European Commission. So it says, estimates potential investment returns of around 2.6 percent to help fund the post-war reconstruction. Yeah, and this was interesting because I mean, it sounds like, you know, something that they probably would have done in the past, but I suppose that it is relatively unprecedented according to Politico. And it's interesting because we're at a time and you'll see this with what we'll talk about regarding China and BRICS, but we see a huge schism now occurring between Eurasia into the Eastern world and between the West as well. And this kind of act in a way does reinforce that, right? So I mean, obviously, they're punishing just Russia for this, but the idea then can be, you know, if you're like a wealthy businessman or a company or whatever, operating outside of the West and, excuse me, if you're headquartered outside of the West and you're operating within the West, that this could be done to you in the event that your government does something, even if you don't agree with it, right? This is a risk, of course, that occurs in global economics, but it is quite interesting. So it says, the commission document, which is set to be discussed by national experts meeting on Tuesday, explains the legal grounds for investing Russian assets. I'm super interested to read what this is. In addition to as well as associated risks and gives estimates of possible investment returns. Given Russia's invasion of the Ukraine amounts to quote, exceptional and gross violation of international and humanitarian law, the commission believes that it could ground its case for investing Russian central bank assets and reaping returns to the benefits of Ukraine and international law. And it'll be interesting to see again, what they use that for regarding the Ukraine. Is it going to be for that debt payback? Is it going to be done into some kind of relief fund? Again, I think this is kind of like a novel concept that they're doing here. And just beyond any kind of, you know, judgments on it, it'll just be interesting to see kind of how this plays out. The EU thinks that around two thirds of the 300 billion of Russian central bank reserves frozen in G7 countries, the EU and Australia are currently held in the block, including 191 euros, excuse me, 191 billion euros in Belgium, 21 billion in other unnamed EU countries. It doesn't know fully yet where Russian central bank reserves are held and included an obligation to report on the whereabouts in its latest sanction package against Russia to try to get a clearer picture. And this is really, you're seeing now the world, of course, has gone through, you know, massive globalization periods throughout history with different empires. But the way that it is so intimately connected now because of things like technology and the way that it moves so quickly, this is laying groundwork for kind of, you know, essentially protocols if this occurs in the future. I do think too, though, in a way is this really does solidify that divide that exists between the West and the East and the East, especially with rising stars like China and India for sure in ways can stand on its own in ways it hadn't prior. I was reading a Goldman Sachs article and I could not locate it, but one of the, he was an ex-analyst for them. And he was saying that the reign of the U.S. dollar is close being over well. If you look at the world reserve currency for the U.S. dollar, it's not really decreasing. It has probably about 2%, which is equal to the ratio which the Chinese Yuan or the renminbi was adopted. But the point being, though, is that the East is making moves on the rest of the world in its own kind of block while the West is having to deal with this kind of stuff, which is only going to drive it further. So, you know, it'll be interesting to see kind of how this plays out. Let's see here. Cash carry says there's more work to do regarding inflation and this is, people are now warming up finally. I've seen more people talk about it, which is that the rates might not go up anymore, but they are going to rely on these banks to get dried up quite a bit. And it'll be interesting to see what happens. The FDIC wants banks to, the big banks basically to take kind of the onus of what they had to do with Silicon Valley and signature and kind of refilled FDIC coffers. This does kind of cut in to a bottom line quite a bit. I know in 2009, when the FDIC had J.P. Morgan pay some to cover the insurance, they lost something like 690 million, 685 million, I think, which was cut into their second quarter bottom line. But rates are so high right now that when you're going to get that inevitable flow of cash back into larger banks, once this kind of settles a little bit more, it might not be a massive problem. But I think what's important is what happens in the meantime with that. And I do think that we are going to see much more issues with banks. It says the Federal Reserve has more work to do to get inflation back down to its 2% goal. And Kashkari said this, he's the Minneapolis Fed president, in case anyone did not know that, although he did not say specifically how much further he believes interest rates will need to rise to the job. He says we've seen some real progress, but that should not in the trader's mind say, okay, we've seen some real progress, things are going to go back to how they were before this. It's like, no, inflation is still up. Some of these key metrics that they're looking to determine the health of the economy are still not being fully suppressed. They might have been halted regarding their growth, but there's no, I suppose, reduction in that. And so that kind of suggests that this tightening is going to continue, whether that's done by the Federal Reserve or whether that is kind of achieved through some of the limited actions that banks are going to have here. Kashkari said, in town of Hall event, noting that housing market has slowed, the goods prices have fallen a bit and new leases are less expensive. He says the one area that is particularly concerning right now is the service economy. It's outside of housing, it has not shown any sign of slowing down. He said wage growth is still growing faster than what is consistent with our 2% inflation target. He goes, that tells him that we still have more work to do. So right there. It's interesting. I know the 2% is the goal to hit, but I mean, we're still at 4.7 to 5%. I don't know. We'll see what happens with this. Guys, stay tuned. We'll get back to what I said we were going to talk about the last break. So stay tuned. If you want to take advantage of this sector, now is the time to subscribe to my Gold Report. The Gold Report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector, as well as the markets that move gold, which is the currency and bond markets. New subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee, so you have nothing to lose. Every Monday morning, I publish the Gold Report with coverage of gold, silver, bonds, the XAU, HUI, GDX, as well as more than 30 different mining equities. To see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the Gold Report, sign up now by visiting TFNN.com. Don't miss out on the next great gold trade. Sign up today. Market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern. For free, each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. 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So China and Brazil have reached a deal to trade in their own currencies, ditching the US dollar as an intermediary. Brazilian government said Wednesday, and then Beijing's latest salvo against the quote, almighty greenback. The deal will enable China to top rival US economic hegemony and Brazil, the biggest economy in Latin America, to conduct their massive trade and financial transactions directly, exchanging guan for reels and vice versa, instead of going through the dollar. They say the expectation is that this will reduce costs, promote even greater bilateral trade, and facilitate investment. China's Brazil's greatest trading partner, with a record 150 billion in bilateral trade last year, the deal which follows a preliminary agreement in January was announced after high-level China and Brazil business forum in Beijing. President of Brazil was originally scheduled to attend the forum. It's part of a high-profile China visit. The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and the Bank of Communications, BBM, will execute the transaction. So this is pretty big, but there is a massive value to having a standardized currency or at least a standardized motive payment. A lot of times the US dollar is the vehicle currency for all trade, and a lot of times the debt is used, so bonds will be used or whatever form of debt there is in order to facilitate these transactions. And that's because you can kind of predict at least where the dollar is going to go. So the transaction is kind of stable at least on that end. It'll be interesting to see what happens if the Remy appreciates vastly and the Rial appreciates vastly what essentially the amelioration for that will be. Again, this has been done a lot of times. I don't know what they're planning on doing in order to kind of curtail that possibility. Additionally, China has just done a deal with Saudi Aramco. Saudi had boosted its investments in China with two refinery deals. Let's pull this over here. So Saudi Aramco raised its billion dollar investment in China by finalizing and upgrading a planned joint venture in northeast China and acquired, it was a 10% stake in Zhejiang Petrochemical Corporation. Let's see here. Aramco said on Monday that it agreed to a 10% stake. The deal includes 480,000 barrels per day of crude oil to Rongxiang for 20 years. And it follows a preliminary agreement Aramco reached Zhejiang province, excuse me, provincial government in 2018 for 9% stake. The deal, so this is the big thing. And this is kind of what I was trying to get at a little bit with how dominant China is being. In 2020 or 2021, the US actually did broker a deal between the Palestinians and the Israelis, excuse me, with Saudi Arabia and the Israelis, which had prior been unthinkable. If you went into a coma in 2019 or something like that and woke up and then you learned something like that, it was massive, right? That didn't get a lot of pressure from the media for whatever reason. But what's happening now, which is arguably equally as large, is this kind of deal that Iran and Saudi Arabia just made to reestablish relations. And that was brokered by China. This is huge. Iran is strong power that goes right into the Caucasus region. The North, that's a good connect into Russia and to China itself. And Saudi Arabia, obviously, is quite an attractive business partner for anyone. And China's really been ramping up their consumption of fuel. Additionally, they also, and this is kind of more of a smaller side note, but they just did a deal for liquefied natural gas with France. Again, that's pretty big. So I mean, they are certainly inserting themselves as an entity that can play on the big stage. Additionally, regarding this let's see here. So we'll get to Russia in a second regarding this. Russia unseeded Saudi Arabia as China's top oil supplier in the first two months of this year. Aramco is already selling crude to the East China plant, which operates at 800,000 barrels per day refinery, the single largest in China under the sales agreement renewed annually. Russia had been massive for, excuse me, China was massive for Russia's income regarding crude oil, especially during the sanctions that the West imposed. And so I mean, just last Tuesday, Nikolai Shulganov, as the Russian Energy Minister, the country has now been able to redirect all of its crude oil exports that have been impacted by Western sanctions over the Ukraine. And he called them friendly countries that people he was selling it to. He goes, I can say today that we have managed to completely redirect the entire volume of exports affected by the embargo. There was no decrease in sales. You know, who's to say that's the full truth behind it, but certainly countries like India, I mean, India was buying a bunch from the Euro region, and China certainly is in need of a lot of fossil fuel. So there's no question that Russia's fellow members of the increasingly influential BRICS Alliance have played a major role in helping Putin, government achieve this outcome. Again, so this is the important thing here. India was the biggest buyer of Euro's grade crude in March, accounting for almost 50% of all such exports. And again, this is like this new thing that I'm talking about is like there is, there is, you know, this way of soft power and waging like an economic kind of conflict is going to become less and less effective the more that you have other countries rising to the scene, such as China. In a separate story in early March, Reuters reported that China's seaborn imports of Russian crude were set to hit high records in March based on ship tracking data. Tanker tracking, consultancies for Tex and Kepler estimated nearly 430 million barrels of Russian crude oil reached China in March, a number that would exceed previous high of 42.48. And Saudi Arabia's economic entanglements in China continue to progress, obviously with this new story right here. You know, it's interesting because we have, you know, obviously these trade routes set up. And if you look at, I'm not going to pull the map right now, but if you look at just a world map and you see the line from China to Saudi Arabia and then what comes next, which is the African continent, I mean, this is what the Belt and Road initiative is. I was in Serbia a few years ago and there were a ton of Chinese businessmen who were there. They're trying to sell EVs, but furthermore they're trying to further some solidification in trade. And this is this idea of hopscotching all the way down and creating basically what would be tantamount to a new Silk Road regarding raw materials. Furthermore, you know, when you have, when you're like, you know, the big lender like that, as China is, they're investing in this kind of infrastructure, you sometimes have issues. And we'll get back to this fully when we come back from the break, which we're going to go to here in a second. But what happens when the countries that you've lent money to, because Chinese aren't doing this for free, just how the U.S. doesn't lend out things for free? What happens when the countries that you're working with are in a financially sticky situation in China is about to find this out. And we'll go into that a little more when we return. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. 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TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years, with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. The Tiger's Den, available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Just straight up giving that cash. The dark blue is a swap line facility and that's from the People's Bank of China. It says rising global interest rates and strong appreciation of the dollar. I've raised concerns about the ability of developing countries to repay their creditors. Several sovereigns have run into distress. The lack of coordination among creditors blamed for prolonging some crises. Again, this is where China can really step in and kind of what I in a way was hinting at regarding what could possibly happen trading in like similar currencies, excuse me, in countries own currencies. Let's see. What's interesting is China is part of the International Monetary Fund and they absolutely refused to have any kind of multilateral bailout whatsoever. And I mean on partnering up with the IMF to do this. They're really solidifying like this is our deal. We don't need you guys in it whatsoever and they're posturing themselves that way. Yeah. And you can check this out here too. Exactly what I was just saying with the IMF. Like lending represents over 40 percent of IMF lending in three years of 2021. It'll be curious to see what happens. Obviously the dollar is depreciating a little bit right now and if we get a bank collapse we'll, which I'm not saying will happen at all, but you'll have even further depreciation. And that might lend up a little bit regardless with the high rates that will be kind of a consistent problem. All right. What else is interesting and I'm going to say it is what is going on again with chat GPT and the letter that was just signed by some pretty big names. Obviously chat GPT has just basically knocked everyone's socks off. People love it. Microsoft has come back as the dominant leader in tech after quite a few years of derision among its competitors and people who even use it. So what this is, what I'm going to pull over here is from an organization called the Future of Life and what's interesting about this is the way, what has happened essentially is they're making standards here right of like how should we look at AI, what should it do and then essentially saying we need to all work on this together. These are the questions. How can we make the future AI systems highly robust? How can we grow our prosperity through automation while maintaining people's resources and purpose? How can we update our legal systems to be more fair and efficient, keep pace with AI? And this is massive and this really is going to take a multinational and really a global kind of edge to it and it needs to. The last thing I feel like you really want to get into is if AI gets advanced enough and I mean it in the sense that it becomes advanced enough but also prolific enough in every system we have that you end up getting essentially power races with other countries and that really could end things pretty quickly just regarding like total global relations and so it's nice to see these kind of policies popping up. What happened a few days ago was the same company released a letter basically calling again saying we all need to work together on this but calling for a pause for at least six months regarding the training of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4. GPT-4 is I think this has been hyped a little bit in the sense that like it is just like a language model. It does get a lot of things wrong a lot of the times but I think if we look at this from kind of more like a psychological perspective right like everyone's now talking about AGI with something that isn't even close to what AGI would be and that's artificial general intelligence and so I think they're hopping on this essentially to be like okay let's really get a game plan going and figure out how to pivot around there but you had, let's look at this, these are all the signatories so Nego, the director of Miele, the Turing prize winner and that's really in a way kind of what this almost this principal kind of is effective as is kind of a good you know addition to some kind of like Turing test. So Russell Berkley professor, Elon Musk, Steve Wozniak, Andrew Yang if you remember him, just a bunch of guys, co-founders of Ripple Pinterest so I mean this is it's nice to actually see in like a world where nobody can seem to agree with each other whatsoever that this is, that this happened. We'll see what Microsoft does. There was a cool podcast with the founder of chat GPT with a guy named Lex Friedman. Lex Friedman is a young guy but he was instrumental in AI research. It's a pretty cool podcast to check out and the chat GPT CEO you know he's like a hype master and has been for a while but he was a little bit more candid with what he really sees is like the limitations of chat GPT in its current manifestation and you know which I think kind of would temper the outlook that a lot of people have. Let's see here some small interesting news as well. The Pentagon fails its fifth audit in a row. Can't get its book straight this was a good quote. This is the DOD comptroller so the accounting guy over there. He goes I would not say that we flunked Mike McCord said but he did admit that they could only account for 39% of the 3.5 trillion in assets. That's pretty impressive. I don't know what you make out of that. The Pentagon something else with the Pentagon's most famous recent article states the boondoggle is the F-35 program which has gone over its original budget by 165 billion but hey listen so many times in economic recessions government spending gets you out of it if you want to look at World War II so maybe the Pentagon shoving through a bunch of money that they can't account for will somehow help us in the end. On that same kind of note someone was asking I was reading on a forum why defense stocks aren't going up and the truth of the matter is that defense stocks are absolutely going up or they have been at least. Wait a second they might not have gone up in the recent year but in the beginning of the war in the Ukraine these guys popped quite a bit okay some nice latency with that and so you know beginning of the war right around here you see a nice pop up all this stuff's priced in something that's interesting to look at obviously like on the American side were essentially giving some old materials stuck in storage right that kind of were just being depreciated on the books and we send those out but in Europe they're actually ramping up production in a meaningful way so stocks like Rheinmetall and Bay Systems Bay Systems UK Rheinmetall is obviously a German company these guys have just skyrocketed in the past few years and so if you're looking for exposure that way I think like on the US end we're kind of priced in even Lockheed Martin even came out with one of their newer it's now like an unmanned drone but it goes extraordinarily fast and it can keep up with jets but nothing really was reflected because everyone was anticipating it if you want to get more exposure and then I would definitely recommend checking out seeing what the heroes are doing regarding defense and that's Rheinmetall and Bay's you know I'll put those in the den but we'll be right back guys are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio Tom O'Brien is here to help Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years a frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade network and CNBC Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you Tom's daily market newsletter market insights is published every morning when the markets open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed these newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio get Tom O'Brien's newsletter market insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 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don't forget you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to TFNN.com then hit watch tiger tv that's TFNN.com then hit watch tiger tv all right folks we got about two and a half minutes on this for the end of the show something interesting I read was the consumer sentiment is deteriorating in America and like how could it not be right but these are some of the points lined out so it says the US government is and I had not actually heard about this at all it'll be interesting to see what happens with this kind of economic crunch we're gonna have here the US government plans to cut SNAP which is the food stamp program welfare benefit starting in 2023 you know I don't know how this is going to affect low income people and you get more people kind of out of work and if at some point you do get kind of like a complete fallout of wages this might be a major problem compared to the same period last year the amount of US government tax refunds has declined and that's mainly due to decline in taxpayer income compared to the same period last year which is interesting you know but he gives as the amount of tax due decreases so does obviously tax refunds revolving consumer debt which is essentially my credit card use is at an all-time high media analysis indicates that the US households may be overwhelmed by debt and yeah we'll see how that goes again I was just saying like people with the with the anecdote I was saying at the beginning of the show people buying old cars for long-term loans and high rates it's it's and you know there's nothing that's what you have to do that's what you have to do everyone has to do that now at least you're common american and it's just it'll be crazy to see what happens with that the student loan repayment moratorium ends in the second quarter which is again another big thing we should be planning around meaning 455 million people will begin repaying their loans now you know all this kind of being at the confluence of major economic tightening will be something to behold it really you know will be interesting I didn't get to go over the national bureau of economic research paper it's super interesting though it's talking about the tax evasion of the top U.S. income distribution which really falls in again with what the french authorities were trying to find out I'm going to link that in the den if you're not in it get in the den folks have a great rest of your day and we will see you tomorrow