 Okay, so can you hear me? It's good. Okay, so I'm Rogerio. I work with a quite of men scientists around the world Including Alex or you do together drink beers But also we study the cause and consequence of extreme disruptions in wheat supply Before up to start we are points to some to some extreme Events that happen in the last decades that actually was in the media. So We start with the what happened in Brazil in 2006. This was actually the lowest production in the last the lowest wheat production the last 20 years in Brazil and this was happy this call it was caused by extremely extremely events basically frost and and very dry conditions and Also low price So basically what happened in Brazil when you have a very light wheat price usually the farmers they don't get the Incentive that they need to plant so they plant much less and then combine with extremely events and you can have very light for the very low productions Second one what happened in France in 2016 This was a lot in the news because France is actually the largest wheat production in the European Union and They also have a very stable production and in 2016 they have they had the lowest wheat production for the last 60 years since they actually they start the records and This was actually they have some projections indicates that they are droughts come to France But these was actually caused by exit the opposite the excess of rainfall and this Really gained media attention and the third one is what we're still living Which was a consequence of the pandemic and plus the Russia and the Ukraine why so that's was the cover of the economist in last year in the last year So here we have the wheat prices may go in this side So here we have the Here we have the wheat price since 1959 to 2023 we can see here that in the less in the first 15 years the wheat price was quite stable Right, you can see here and then we had the first peak Sorry, okay, we had the first peak which was basically caused by increased demand of the soviet union The population was increasing that time and that's where the major grain exporters especially in this time canada in us Second then was again Stable we can say stable for almost 20 years and then we had a small peak here That was basically increased demand in the newly industrialized Asia countries and then Three years of low green production due to extreme weather events At this time already including the soviet union Countries and also us canada and so and then we had another time of Of a stable price and then we had a huge peak That occurred in 2008 You see that was the first price the first time that the price reached was above 400 dollars a ton of wheat And here we was basically A mood basket failure due to extreme weather events so many exporter countries They failed to produce wheat in the same year us canada russia Europe australia all of them they have very bad very bad harvest in the same years and then we had two Peaks here that was both of them russians heatwaves And then we had the pandemic. Maybe you cannot see because but here's the begin of the pandemic and then The war in ukraine. Okay, and then we reached again 450 dollars a ton. So the nice thing here is to compare that actually a pandemic and uh War together had the same impact of extreme weather advantage in 2018 in the wheat price And uh, but why I mentioned brazil and france So I think oh, yeah, but first we can actually divide the things in groups. So we can say economic growth can cause increase of demand right can cause Increasing price basically price is basically a balance between offer and demand if you have an increase in demand Or a problem may offer you have you have problems, right? So economic growth is one problem global cries Where we cannot see but we had coveted the war there and the third would be extreme weather events Which affects which the the red points here? Uh, but why I said brazil. So here's what happens in brazil. So here we have two plots wheat and soybean Basically brazil it's a big It produced lots of food They say 20 percent of the populations feed by food from brazil but They do not they do not produce enough wheat and this is the comparison of wheat Which brazil imports and soybean which brazil is the big sex porters So here we have the price in the course of brazil the black line. So we see From 2006 to Then we see actually the begin of the the crisis here the covet and you see that there is a They they lose the value compared to dollar and then we have here In the red the wheat price in the world and the wheat price In brazil in dollar so wheat price in brazil in the currency of brazil and in dollar So and you have the same here for soybean And when you do this line so this line this dash at blue line above The the the red line or it means when you do the price in dollars of wheat in brazil And compared to the world we see That the wheat price in brazil can get up to eight percent higher than in the world and of course this Happens usually you have these peaks after extreme Events affect wheat production brazil as for example in 2006 that affect 2006 and 7 And in 2012 for example And you don't see the same for brazil so basically what happens This disruptions in production supply they cause inflation Improving the impoverishment of the population basically because if you have to spend more money Buying food, right? You cannot you don't you don't spend money in order for example buying clothes Drink beers or doing something else and then you affect the economy cycle Okay, and what do you do with this? Of course we do science Uh And basically our objective is understand the cause of production failures Quantify the future frequency of these events and indicate ways to compensate for production failure Basically, that's what we have done for brazil in brazil We pick uh all the the the calls of that happened that caused 2006 And we project this for for future climate change and you see that in rcp 7.5 here Okay, this is actually i'm student didn't like In in rcp 7.5 7.0 It varies according to the To the economy to to the wheat price as I mentioned before But this event that usually occurs once every 20 years can occur 7 in 75 percent of the years which would be 15 out of 20 years So it's historical occurring you can see historical occurring Once per 20 years, but can increase up to 15 Out of 20 years This uh in france what happened in france in 2016 We were able to quantify all the calls That caused it So we see uh here uh the projections for the calls we have here having rainfall Solar radiation here which in this case was low solar radiation Plant disease and anoxia water logging So we see uh the projections are actually point for increasing in all uh In all the calls of 2016 less But not for water logging for anoxide the final one and this Here we can see that uh The this event is also Expect to occur more often it occurs usually 1 percent of the years which is one out of 400 years But it can happen future up to five up five in 100 years uh, and this actually We quantify the ways to compensate for for a possible exports a possible block in the ukraine exports Ukraine exports 19 million of wheat every year So if they decide to block it They all their big exporters countries they should produce they should plant more 5.5 million hectares of wheat just to compensate The possible block of the wheat there or maybe increase the yield by 0.26 And if something happened if any type of extramural events happen on top of it This can reach 7.8 million hectares And this would also mean half million tons We have here by country, but you have this what also means half million tons of nitrogen And that's it I I would like to show this just to point to this graph because I saw alex and I think also erica presentation that you pointed all the all the impacts that can happen in in All the impacts that that Frost and everything that can can affect many aspects right also agriculture I think to any of them can affect agriculture and this this graph shows what The crop models does the crop models for those who know who doesn't know usually they are very used they are the ones used for for projecting projecting future climate scenarios in agriculture and you see that Although most of them do water deficit and nitrogen deficit only one third of them do water logging half of them do heat less than one third frost And really small numbers of them do storms all the nutrients and so you still have lots of to improve that So that's thank you. Thank you Any question for