 Hi and welcome to the weather forecast discussion for the week beginning Thursday, May 14th I'm chief meteorologist John Insworth for Longmont public media This Friday in case you're going to a drive-in. I think this is a third weekend You could go to drive-in someplace along the front range. I have a third quarter moon in the Early morning hours, so it won't be any problem at all to see the film or but it won't help you take a walk In the evening this weekend Let's start by looking back in time and take a look at the Roughly the winter statistics for temperature and precipitation across the nation for the period January through March with winter beginning technically December 21st We have the eastern half of the nation really roasting With the western part of the nation normal to just a little above normal Western northern Colorado close to normal and South-eastern Colorado touch warmer than normal when you look at precipitation We are pretty much normal throughout the entire mountain West and northern plains California unfortunately starting out dry and the southeastern US minus the Gulf states Got really wet Looking at the last seven days For precipitation. We had those two rainy days earlier this week and Longmont kind of did well Regionally we got about a half inch of water a little bit less right around us Mountains did pretty well with half inch to almost an inch and the eastern Plains southern counties didn't get very much at all We'll take a look at drought conditions at the end of today's discussion So spoiler alert for the whole next 10-day period. Here's our Normal high temperature rising from about 73 74 degrees over the next 10 days Normal low temperatures 40 and it's on the rise as well as we come towards summer We have two nights of showers afternoon showers evening showers Maybe some thunderstorms Thursday better chance of thunderstorms on Friday separate the soil thunderstorms some signal here there's a little bit of a Another evening event for Saturday's maybe a few more showers forming. We'll see We start the week dry and there's some scattered precipitation later in the week For Thursday noon, you can see a front still draped down along the mountains here dry conditions still There is moisture in the gulf coming up and some moisture coming out of the tropics there as well for Thursday evening You can see northern Colorado getting Combination of a shortwave coming across in the upper atmosphere moisture available to surface this Convergence along the stationary front giving us a chance for some precipitation For Friday a stronger shortwave is coming through what's now almost a zonal flow If you remember we've been going back and forth for the past couple months with either big ridge in the west or a big trough In the west right now. It's pretty much straight west to east, but there's a little ripple Coming through the western US towards us Will there be any severe weather well for Thursday the strong prediction center is giving us a marginal chance of Of severe weather probably for hail winds down the southeastern part of the state It could get drawn closer to the metro area by the time we get Into Thursday morning, you know You will have to just check that or take a look at the Longmont observer weather site for updates on that For Friday right now They've got the marginal risk even further away But it's not impossible that we could get another little spot on the warm and moist side of the Rockies eastern side with a chance of some hail Severe probabilities we looked at the sequence of these last week You can see they're they come into the front range and northeastern part of the state. There is a Little elevated chance of severe weather climatically, so it's possible How much precipitation will we get well picking it up these chances of rain in Thursday Friday Saturday looking out four days Right around Longmont looks like about a quarter of an inch of rain go to mountains nearby That about a half inch of rain up here some really good amounts inch inch and a half two inches out here in the northeast and Down east of Colorado Springs into the southeast of there Unfortunately the southwestern part of the state stays dry if you scoop in another six days You see the precipitation around Longmont and Boulder really doesn't change much But we are expecting a lot more rain out in the northeastern Corner around Stirling up in Nebraska and like that Maybe a little bit in the southern mountains, but the southwest four corners area gets missed Look at this next seven days From Thursday into Friday. We have a warm-up With increasing chances of afternoon evening storms pretty good chance of some wet weather and some thunder Friday Afternoon evening little chance Saturday night. We a little bit of a cool down with Air coming in from the north behind that departing trough then a ridge Comes back into the west during us and over Colorado. We rock it up to the 80s for Sunday Upper 80s Monday, and I've once before called for 90 plus a couple weeks ago And we had too much cloud cover that day to reach that level It might happen again Tuesday before we cool down again with a little disturbance coming in bringing also a very small chance of precipitation I Promise we'd look at the current drought conditions before we wrap up today The northern tier of counties are doing pretty well right around here We're fine. No drought conditions whatsoever, but the southern part of the state eastern plains is Notch by notch getting drier as we have warm weather and very little precipitation coming in recently So again keep Appraised of local stories the Longmont observer soon to be called the Longmont leader Watch for that change coming up really soon And I update the weather pretty frequently there so you can take a look at the weather column So this has been your weather forecast and discussion for the week beginning Thursday May 14th 2020 I'm chief meteorologist John Menzworth. Keep looking up