 What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread that's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire.com where today college football is back on covering the spread. We are talking week number one with Ben Stevens of sports spread sports grid getting his thoughts on the big games this weekend and his overall process for betting in week number one. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire.com joined here as always by Dr. Ed Fang. You can find his work over at the power rank dot com Ed week one come out of hot for college football week zero in the books you had that batch last week. So a very busy time of year. How are you doing today. I'm doing fantastic. I'm really looking forward to so many of these college football games this weekend we'll talk about some of them today but there's some other there's some other awesome big 10 games to Indiana at Iowa and yeah it's great. I do end up going to bed bash last week. It was it was on Wednesday and you always take a little bit of a risk scheduling a plain fight for earlier in the day of event you hopefully want to get to at 7pm. So I was supposed to leave it about noon and my flight gets delayed. And you know first it's like delayed till four is like oh it stinks but you know at least I'll be there and then it gets delayed till 8pm. So that you know that makes you think about whether you actually want to go when you're literally was you were supposed to be there for 36 hours and now you're going to show up at 11pm for an event that is technically over him about a little bit but I ended up going. So it was a lot of fun. It was good to see a lot of people spanky did a great job hosting the whole thing actually was quite a challenge to get up to the actual event because it was they were trying to close it down so they're trying to bring people downstairs to the bar and I was trying to go up and had to beg my way there once once the guy I found spanky he's like yeah yeah he's he's with us so so that was that was pretty nice but you know it's amazing how he just has an idea and then he makes it happen and there was a ton of people at this event and they've already announced the next bet bash final four weekend in Las Vegas so yeah it was a great it was a great time to network and there will be more opportunities in the future. That's awesome and I feel like it's probably the first time you've seen a lot of those people since probably Sloan in 2020 if I had to guess. Yep. Yeah exactly. So and yeah this time I came back and I didn't have COVID so even better that way. Well that's awesome glad you got to go out there I know again obviously plans changed and couldn't quite you know do it in the way you plan but still good to like it out there see if you've not seen in a while and also just like talk betting before what I think is the most exciting month of betting mostly because I'm not a big like you know March Madness guy and stuff like that to me September is awesome we get overlap of NFL baseball NASCAR golf it's a very busy time for me but also it's pretty fun. So good to get that the the wheels flowing there heading into this month. Yeah well I mean it's kind of an overwhelming time and I've taken two trips in the last two weeks and I'm not going to do that again in August. There's a lot of things going on with the site and everything I actually just filed my last episode for the preview series of football analytics show so luckily that got done today but there's still a bunch of things that that need to happen on the site so it's a hard time to travel to but yeah maybe next year just one trip. Yeah I had we had a wedding in July we had our own wedding reception in August we had a fan to a fan fest in Denver in August we have a wedding this weekend in Maryland so I am ready to never leave the house again which is a very dangerous thing to say given the past year and a half but like you know I'd welcome some weeks shut in home at this point because it's been a wild past month and while we're locked in home we can watch some college football we're gonna get you said for this weekend's games by talking to Ben Stevens you can find him on Twitter at Ben Scott Stevens he is of course the co-host of the morning after on sports grid we had Ariel Epstein on a couple months ago to talk NBA prop betting she is the co-host with Ben over at the morning after really fun duo to talk to I'm on their show every Friday to talk some NASCAR and some NFL and some baseball stuff we're gonna talk with Ben about week one of college football and he is a big 10 guys we're talk to Ben about the origins of that why he loves the big 10 and also get his thoughts on Penn State versus Wisconsin which is coming up this week if you want some more NFL talk that we do have four different NFL futures podcasts already recorded we had one of JJ Zacharias on player props Aaron Dolan talks divisional outrides Edward Egros came on to talk about wind totals and then Nick Costos last week talked Super Bowl 56 futures you can find all those shows by searching for covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts we are an Apple podcast Spotify Stitcher Google podcast you name it you can find us there while you're there leave us a rating and review as well we also had Drew Martin on talk some futures bets for college football and we'll see you get a lot more information on those coming up this week so Ben is coming up in just one second but first a sports fans Fandall is offering an exclusive promotion for new sportsbook users join Fandall sportsbook today make your first bet if you lose we'll give 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am doing very well Ed a pleasure to meet you I'm very glad to be here on covering the spread talking all things college football it is my favorite sport it has been my favorite sport since I first saw Lee Corso put on headgear on college game day since I was eight years old I wasn't handicapping at the age of eight but here I am ready for the 2021 college football season and I cannot wait the week one slate is just filled with marquee matchups it's a masterpiece hard-eye emojis everything you could say I'm very excited to be here it really is a great slate of games and we're going to talk about three of the bigger games here we'll get some big 10 discussion in there and the reason why I got to get some big 10 in there is because you're a big big 10 guy Ben and I'm very curious because I knew that you went to Syracuse so I had been talking to Ariel and I was like okay cool Syracuse guy you know probably skewing towards the east coast and then I saw you tweet about Ryan Field and it threw me off I was like what is this guy doing who knows of Ryan Field on the east coast I was very confused so where does this big 10 fascination come from where did it originate all right so I will explain the origin going back to his very core of Big 10 Ben who I've been coined in a persona that I still feel very near and dear in my heart so you are right I went to Syracuse University a proud alum go orange all the way but I don't necessarily have the greatest tie to the ACC I could care less what Georgia Tech and Wake Forest do so when I started my professional broadcast career I was working as a sports anchor and reporter out at the CBS affiliate in Omaha Nebraska covering all things Huskers and as you guys know that entire state from as far east as Omaha to as far west as the Colorado border nothing is more important than Saturdays in the fall and Lincoln Nebraska so I fell in love him was in doctrine with the Big 10 really through the lens of Nebraska and then as I left Omaha and was doing some things around the podcasting space I got involved with a Big 10 podcast that led to another Big 10 podcast that really kind of led me into building the brand of Big 10 Ben so that's why you can see the flags over my left shoulder here and that is really where my affinity for the Big 10 conference comes I think that's excellent Ben because it's really hard covering 130 college football teams at least for me also having delved into the NFL more over recent years does this impact your betting too are you more likely to bet Big 10 games even though kind of the consensus would be those lines might be sharper certainly so I'm a huge college football fan and have a pretty good knowledge I would like to say of the sport in general but I can go deeper into the Big 10 so my handicapping I feel is a little bit more expertise level when it comes to the Big 10 that is to say though to start off the 2020 Big 10 football season I started infamously oh 10 in one against the spread someone say that's even more impressive than 10 oh and one but who am I to argue with those very smart people so yes my handicapping for the Big 10 can go a little bit deeper I might know more of the depth chart breakdown I might know more of the history of these football programs when it comes to the Big 10 conference but overall I would like to think at least I hope I can give a little bit of expertise across all college football for sure so when when were you in Omaha at a curiosity like uh what what were the years for I graduated Syracuse in May 2016 a couple months later I started off in Omaha in August 2016 I was there for two years through my contract through August 2018 and then that's when I moved to New York City was working through a variety of other jobs and then got going with sports grid really this past March and it was kind of around Big 10 basketball into the conference tournaments into then the NCAA tournament for March Madness of course and so my roots are in college sports I love all sports I've been a huge sports fan across you know the entirety of my life but really I think my foundation is more in college sports and I don't mind being called the college sports guy so it's good by me sure well it's hoping you would have been there in 2013 because that's the one time I was in Lincoln was 2013 Nebraska Northwestern the Battle of the NUs and the Jordan Westercamp Hail Mary game was or was that the year before either way it was 2013 or 2012 and that was the Jordan Westercamp Ron Kellogg Hail Mary game and I remember walking out of the stadium and like all these Nebraska fans because we were flying with the teams or their radio and like they were like saying to the players we hope you all have a great rest of the year and it was like so like rattling for me to hear like opposing fans wishing the players like the best but like I know people like I'm from Minnesota and people say like Minnesota nice the thing but I feel like it's actually more Nebraska nice I think that they actually take the cake in that regard that is their state motto Jim you will not hear more hopes in your life oh excuse me then walking around Memorial Stadium in Lincoln Nebraska this is how long Jordan Westercamp played at the University of Nebraska because when I got there in August of 2016 he was going into his sixth year of eligibility him and Tommy Armstrong were still the staples of a Mike Riley pro offense so that's how long Jordan Westercamp played in Lincoln okay so we at least got that overlap that's good all right Ben so while we got you on the the top of good Nebraska um so my numbers really like them on the road against Illinois I couldn't talk myself into betting it happy I came with that conclusion give us the state of the state of Nebraska it can't be good right now oh Ed it is worse than good I mean it is worse than bad it is worse than misery it is going as far down as you can go I was in Omaha covering Scott Frost introductory pest conference when he was hired from UCF the prodigal son returned home to Lincoln who led the Cornhuskers to their last national championship in 1997 I said on the airwaves that day and I still stand by this that if Scott Frost is not the guy to bring Nebraska back to the glory days then I don't know who does it and that's kind of how I feel now but the grace period has certainly worn off it had worn off entering last Saturday's game against the Illini and now feels very dismal for a team that made the same exact mistakes Ed we have seen them make over the three years of Scott Frost's tenure it was terrible I mean really you could not have drawn up a worse game for the Huskers penalties that cost them every opportunity Adrian Martinez in his fourth year with the same offensive mind of Scott Frost looking very uncomfortable very fast feet nothing made sense I had Nebraska minus six and a half as a bet that I love because I said Scott Frost needs to continue his time in Lincoln and if he needs to do that he needs to at least push their team win total of six one of those six games not if maybe hopefully so must be the win over Illinois now I don't really know how they get to six how they become both eligible it is as bad as it could possibly be in Lincoln, Nebraska right now Ed and I feel for all of Husker Nation that I really love during my time there and I know they're going through it at the moment. Yeah no it was certainly painful and you know mistakes are mistakes and I understand those add up for the program but Adrian Martinez simply was not accurate with the football and I did an episode a couple years ago talking about Mario Verduisco and his brilliance as a quarterback coach and that was heading into 2019 in a sophomore campaign and I don't know I just don't know what has happened to that guy right I mean if you tell me that Adrian Martinez plays I will bet Nebraska minus seven in that game all day sorry if you pulled well and but I you know there's just been he was a lot he was better as a freshman all around running throwing everything right so by far it was his best 2018 his freshman year on campus in Lincoln was by far the best of his collegiate career and it led to Heisman conversation heading into 2019 he was the dark horse that people were saying he might be a Heisman contender when all is said and done now in year two under Scott Frost look out for this Nebraska team that was not certainly the case and Adrian Martinez has regressed every year there was one bright spot in a weird 2020 season last year in Big Ten football for the Corn Huskers and Adrian Martinez specifically and that was his highest completion percentage during his collegiate career at over 70% and so you thought okay that's a ground thing that we can build off of now in fact it was the complete opposite on Saturday against the Illini missing easy easy throws and they're at the final drive of the game you saw really the exposure of Adrian Martinez's game and that's downfield passing I mean he wasn't close to anything he needed to be through the final minute of that game I mean there was a lot of pressure obviously Illinois was up by eight at that time they were playing prevent defense at all times but it was ugly like really there's no other word to use except it was very difficult to watch yeah so let's talk about a happier subject and talk about week one in leaving Nebraska in the past for right now I'm sure we'll talk about them again later on this year but let's talk about your process heading into week one because there's a lot that goes on year over year for college football you got to look at depth charts which you talked about when you know why you skew towards the Big Ten but like what do you lean on when trying to research for week one specifically when we don't have data on these teams yet in this year looking at recruiting rankings what are you looking at here try to decide how you want to view these teams entering week one yeah so recruiting rankings I think are very beneficial if you have some impact freshmen that will come in right away or younger guys that might have saw a little bit of experience that season prior and now from the 2019 class or the 2020 class are supposed to take that next step entering their sophomore year on campus but what I first and foremost look at is sample size and last year it's more difficult than ever to do from 2020 going into 2021 because of the variety of games we had not just across the country from sec to big 10 but within the Big Ten alone there were teams in the Big Ten conference that played six games there were teams that played nine games how healthy were these teams in that COVID year and can you really gain any bit of significance from what you saw last year so I think when you have entering 2021 a sample size of around seven to eight games you can take actual meaningful statistics from that and one of the things Jim that I think is most important in a caveat to know for this year normally in a college football season as that turnover goes from summer workouts into fall camp the number one storyline for any program is what is your returning level of production how many upperclassmen do you have back due to the COVID eligibility year that is something that is across the nation this year that people will highlight 75 percent of their production is back 85 percent of the production it is not as much of a distinguishing factor entering week one this year as it has been in years prior because you will see really across the board if teams have less than like 17 starters coming back something didn't work out something was weird the transfer portal was hit hard the NFL draft was just a bevy of options for this specific program so that is something that I think you might hear and you might read that okay Minnesota has all five of their offensive linemen returning for this year or Miami returns everybody in front of the era king that's great but so do about 75 percent of the country so it's not as much of an edge in your handicap as it has been in years past yeah absolutely and like Notre Dame is one of those teams that has not a lot of returning production back they're kind of the outlier maybe wouldn't be in a different year but but yeah let's let's keep talking about kind of week one how are you going about this do you feel like you're going to be betting more this week or are you kind of waiting to see some of these players uh get on the field before you start firing away well I think Ed one of the biggest things about week one and this goes for any casual college football better is to blend the excitement with actual edges making sure you have an understanding of what you are betting on there is a bevy of options for you it is a buffet tonight alone I believe this comes out on Thursday there are 14 games that kick off in a 90 minute span you might be seeing things fly across your screen and you're like oh I need to bet on this one I need to bet on this one do not do that make sure you do your time to do your research and where you feel you might have a lean or an edge sure go into this game also maybe go in with a smaller unit than you might moving forward because even if you feel like you have a great lean and you know a depth chart is coming back and you know that the same offensive system is in place for a quarterback who's been under center for two years and this is going to be that big distinguishing edge that you have for your handicap you still don't necessarily know what this team is going to look like specifically in the year 2021 yes we have a lot more reliability this year than we did last off season we had full winter conditioning we had full spring practice summer workouts fall camp all that is certainly something that leads to a little bit more sustainability year over year but it's still week one you're not entirely sure what you're going to see from these offenses and defenses is it going to be a slower start will this defense take the next step so maybe a smaller unit play in some of your bank role management as you get going in this beginning of the college football season well i think that's smart too because then you can allow yourself to have the fun of week one and getting back into it without overextending yourself so it's a nice balance because we do that for fun too it's you know it's it is we're trying to profit but like you know sometimes we have some fun and that is a good way to get around that is by reducing the unit size so we got big 10 ben here let's talk about one of the bigger big 10 gains this week penn state at wisconsin wisconsin five and a half point favorite total here is 49 and a half and we talked about penn state a lot in the show over the past couple years specifically because of things like recruiting rankings they get a lot of good recruits the problem has always been the quarterback position and they haven't figured that one spot out but they could figure that out this team has a lot of upside so what do you think about shon cliford heading into 2021 oh okay so jim a lot of people are going to tell you shon cliford is going to take that next step he's going to be a guy in this offensive system under mike urich i don't believe it i'm sorry i don't shon cliford is a guy that i think has a certain level of limitation in what he can do at the quarterbacking position everybody saw what he did in 2019 and thought the ceiling for this guy was going to be one of the best quarterbacks in the big 10 conference but his completion percentage has been below 60 the entirety of his time in happy valley he's not a consistent quarterback he utilizes his legs well and he can make up for some of those disadvantages but he wasn't even really supposed to be the guy don't forget after trace big sorely it was going to be tommy stevens tommy stevens ended up transferring and then it was like oh okay we got shon here shon let's uh see what you can do out there and i think there's a certain level of limitation to what shon cliford can do also something to know about new offensive coordinator mike urich his system is more designed for a pro style quarterback shon cliford is the definition of a dual threat quarterback he's ranked in the top three in quarterback rushing yards the past two years in a big 10 conference and yes having him back as a starter for his third year on campus is huge from that sustainability standpoint but it's a new offensive system once again he had a new offensive system last year heading into 2020 under kurt chiroka who came over from minnesota so i don't necessarily believe in shon cliford like some other people might he has a wonderful weapons at his disposal jahan dotson is one of the best wide receivers in the big 10 conference the backfield for penn state this year is going to be incredibly deep with kevon lee nookane coming back from injury devin for who's a very high recruit they have a lot of pieces to maybe make up for some of the disadvantages of shon cliford but if i'm banking all of my thought into penn state having a bounce back year being a 9-10 win team that can compete with ohio state the big 10 east on shon cliford you're going to go broke pretty quickly okay so they're five and a half point dogs here against wisconsin do you think they can cover that or are the concerns around cliford enough to keep you away from penn state plus five and a half i think they are because wisconsin's defense is going to be very good this year jim letter the defensive coordinator in madison passed up other opportunities to possibly go to the nfl level or other places across college football they bring back so many guys defensively and again i'm saying that in a way of not using it as a distinguishing edge but just knowing a little bit more of what you can expect out of this wisconsin defense they have a safety linebacker hybrid guy in the name of nick herbig who's going into his sophomore year on campus in madison he is incredible he is a playmaker at every level and if shon cliford is inconsistent come saturday nick herbig might be the recipient of some badly thrown balls from shon cliford and then obviously offensively you know what you're going to get with wisconsin run the damn ball and paul christ certainly believes in that and now they have grandmer's going into his second year and he has so many weapons at his disposal as well you know the offensive line the hogmollies up front for wisconsin are going to be great jes malusi is the clemson transfer he was actually named the starter earlier this week on depth chart day on monday which was a little bit interesting seeing as jailen berger the freshman from last year was incredibly talented for wisconsin as well so they really have a two-headed monster in the backfield for a wisconsin team that is going to run the ball down your throat each and every time and penn state defensively their linebacking corps is going to be good my question is around that front four on the d-line and i think wisconsin has a huge edge there in this game so although five and a half is maybe a little bit of a bigger number than i would have hoped if you really want to bank everything on wisconsin i still think they can win this game by a touchdown so yes i lean the badgers on saturday yeah that's interesting i i agree like um i i ended up not betting this game i think it's a pretty fair number my numbers actually like penn state a little bit i think that they have them by about four um but i i also believe that wisconsin has the better quarterback and the better defense and they're at home so five and a half seems like a pretty solid number but then i did want to ask you who outside of state college thinks that sean cliford's going to make that leave i you know that's what they bank on though and that's what they say they say year number three same quarterback on campus under james franklin he's going to do it this year at least that's what i've heard from certain people and why penn state is a top 20 team that is going to rival ohio state in the big 10 east they circle sean cliford but he's also their biggest question mark so i guess he's more of their liability if he is good this year sure penn state is going to have the talent across their roster to be a good football team and i certainly think penn state can win nine games this year i'm not taking that away from them but i've heard that about sean cliford that if he does take that step watch out for the nittany lines i just yeah if he does take that step right if he works himself into uh you know in an nfl draft pick yeah of course they'll be they'll challenge ohio state for sure i actually just did my uh big 10 preview and uh i was looking back and passing success rate they've been 40th and 30 second over the last two seasons with cliford so fine but again not the type of offense that i that i think is really gonna you know and i think this is a top 10 team right like again you're gonna win nine maybe 10 games but can you can you challenge the big dog in ohio state probably not with cliford right and i would agree with that statement very much i think that if you want to win nine games you want to win 10 games penn state does have that capability can they knock off ohio state i don't think so i don't think they can get to a big 10 championship game based on what sean cliford has and really some of the other gaps on this defense and i think up front for penn state they hit the transfer portal hard but they've lost so much talent along that defensive line in the last two years with guys like yutra gross mottos of course this past year in oda feo way and shaka tony michael parson's opted out last year there needs to be some replacements on that defensive side for penn state so i think they have a cap this year it's a good cap it's nine or ten wins it's just not a bid to the big 10 championship game and possibly call it football playoff outside shot yep let's talk about a couple neutral side side games coming up on this weekend first one alabama versus miami alabama 19 and a half point favorite total here 61 and a half and brice young jockingly named the starter for alabama entering the season opener what's your outlook for brice young in an offense with a bunch of turnover but still obviously a ton of talent coming into this year jim i don't think it matters what my outlook is the guys making seven figures yeah who cares he's fine he's good man it's all good i mean here's the thing about alabama the reigning national champions the preseason number one and that makes sense but i do think there are more talented teams this year than alabama and i know that we have a lot of steak in brice young he was a guy that was going to rival mac jones last year and possibly push mac out of a starting job if things did not work out for mac jones of course we know that was not the case and mac jones was very good and continues to be very good even at the next level but there are so many changing pieces on this alabama offense they do not return as much up front offensively as some other teams might across that offensive line when you think about guys like landon dickerson that was the anchor of that team that have left to the nfl obviously on the outside you lose davante sniff you lose jail and model sure you still have john mechie and the playmakers who are going to be great but you lose naji harris as well you lose your quarterback and mac jones and i think most importantly you lose steve sarkeesian let's not forget and this is nothing away from nick saban alabama was a great team before the likes of sarth and lane kiffen came to tuscaloosa but they were not a high scoring team they ranked second in the country in points per game last year and 48.5 points per game for the alabama crimson tide steve sarkeesian reinvented that offense and he had a lot of pieces to use and paint the picture that he wanted to but i think without sarth this year and now bill o brian they'll still be able to have some success because they are just so deep and the athletes are incredible and i expect bryce young to be very good but there's a little bit more question marks i have about bryce young in that quarterback position then i think you could feel last year heading in even with mac jones in place knowing that steve sarkeesian as your offensive coordinator was there absolutely um uh any thoughts on the miami whether you have an opinion on the side at 19 and a half or the total so i think this is a very very intriguing game because miami is a very trendy underdog pick a lot of people look at miami and they say derek king back i know he's coming off the torn acl but he's a isman candidate in ret lashley's offense what they can do together they are going to put up points and they have so much returning under many dias on the other side for the defensive side of the ball for the canes that miami is one of the favorites to win the acc coastal right along with north carolina a team that people think will play clemson in the acc title game i'm a little bit more hesitant on this miami team based on the fact that diara king who utilizes his legs to the best of his ability and which makes him that dynamic at the quarterback position is coming off a torn acl so it's not doubting that he can be back at that level it's just let me see it first against an alabama defense that is going to be even better than they were the past two years back now and they led the sec in total defense last year and they got better heading into this season that i need to see it first for diara king and then you have the stats of nick saban in openers during his time in alabama he is 14 and 0 in week one games during his time in alabama 12 and 2 against the spread by an average margin of about 29 and a half points per game that victory margin for nick saban so you correlate that to what we are seeing right now with a 19 and a half point spread although i think this game could be competitive i think alabama could win 45 to 21 and we wouldn't bat an eye and that would just be a decent football game where alabama truly showed their luster and pulled away so if i'm looking at it from a side perspective i would probably lean alabama when you're looking at the total i think miami can score enough even against a really good defensive side to maybe get over that total of 61 and a half but i still think alabama can win and cover this game i certainly think alabama wins i do believe they can also cover okay awesome so i can the total for that game go ahead ed i was going to move on so if you had something else no do it awesome so let's go to the other huge game georgia at clemson at a neutral site i think clemson's back at three and a half point favorite really probably the most difficult game clemson plays for a while at least until the acc championship game georgia has finally figured out that they should start jt daniel's at the quarterback position clemson's breaking in a new quarterback what are your thoughts on this game i think it is an incredibly intriguing number it has been the same number pretty much all off season long from when this line opened up for week number one between georgia and clemson and i have been on record is saying i think you are getting georgia in a better spot past that key number of three and i know key numbers do not mean nearly as much for college football but when it's georgia and clemson in a top five tilt i think key numbers relate a little bit more to college football like they would on an nfl level my concern about georgia is the fact of all the injuries that they have heading into this game especially on the outside and the pieces that jt daniel's needs to be successful i think zamir white is one of the best running backs in the country so having him there is great but we're not exactly sure what's going to be happening with george pickens i don't think we can expect him to be back for this game eric gilbert is some weird things around the lsu transfer is he going to play two of the other three receding leading receivers from last year for georgia should play in this opener against clemson so i think that is a little bit of reliability for jt daniel's and then defensively the edge really i think still goes to georgia despite how good brent venables has this clemson defense looking like for this year brian basi up front is going to be an absolute monster all year long he is going to give acc teams nightmares throughout the year andrew booth junior in the secondary for clemson is great i don't like james skelsky because he hit justin fields in the way he did last year in the sugar bowl but yes having that back is the anchor of your defense that's understandable as well i think guys honestly this is the year that i would pick georgia if there were any time i have said that i think georgia can rival alabama in the sec and that sec championship game might go in the favor of the dog so i think that you're getting points with georgia right now past that field goal number i like the dogs in this game it's going to be tight it is going to be competitive i think georgia can win outright but i'm not going to pick them on the money line i like the fact they're getting three and a half i think the hook could be very beneficial come saturday night how long is james skelsky ben at clemson is he like the new hunter renfro here yeah oh he was he's been there for a while actually i know for a fact this is his sixth year i know that for a fact but it feels like he has been there jim since jordan westerkamp made the hail mary catch against warcraft right exactly yeah new hunter renfro of clemson yes yeah ben when i was out in cirka a couple weeks ago in vegas they had this at three i think it got to three maybe a fan duel um but it's back to three and a half so you know someone bet this pretty big at cirka for the dogs they said forget the injuries we think georgia can get it done um so yeah someone out there definitely agrees with with that opinion uh with your opinion on this game i hope so i think i feel very confidently in georgia this year i know the entire idea of kirby smart against nicks saven and nicks saven's never lost to an assistant and i get all that but if there was going to be a year and you just look on paper right now and what georgia returns and what they have and what the expectation level in athens is i think georgia if you're going to re-rank the poll based on what we are going to see out of these teams this year i think georgia has as much of a stake for for being the number one team in the country as does alabama so i think georgia can be up there this year i don't think this is a make or break game for the college football playoff really for either team because if clemson does lose they're going to run through the acc and you're not going to keep a one-loss clemson team that's an acc champion out of the college football playoff unless four other teams are unbeaten and even if georgia loses this game if they were going to go on and beat alabama in the sec championship game they have everything ahead of them if they're a one-loss sec champion they're getting in i think there might even be an argument to be made that both of those sec teams could get in if that were to play out and obviously we have a while from where we are on saturday until we get to early december and conference championship weekend but i don't think it's a make or break break playoff game however the team that wins cool the path is all ahead of you to the college football playoff that game is going to be a fun one we can say that for sure we may not know how to break but we can say it will be a fun one so obviously ben we don't want to restrict you to just these games uh any other value you're seeing on the board here for week number one one game that really really interests me and i'm very excited to see how this plays out a little bit more worrisome now i guess you could say is lsu and ucla because the number was three and a half got bet up to four and a half on lsu now after ucla's performance last week against hawaii back down to three and a half and lsu is dealing with a lot and obviously all the fallout of hurricane ida and although they've been out and they've been traveling and they've been practicing in houston in anticipation for this game a lot of these guys are from the state of louisiana and their hearts and their concerns and rightfully so are going to be with their friends and family back in the state of louisiana i still think coach ed ogeron will have them ready for this game and excuse me as i have to give my go taggers for coach o as they get ready for this game but i think jim when you look at this lsu team they're a team i'm very high on this year to look not quite like they did in 2019 because that's an all time college football team that obviously won the national championship but they had to replace 16 starters from that team entering last year in 2020 and then got hit with opt-outs in a huge way this year they have 16 starters back in a team that i think has a lot more experience especially defensively because they were the worst passing defense in the country last year the fourth worst total defense in the country last year gave up 34.9 points per game and when i looked this up it was the worst amount of scoring defense in terms of allowing their opponents to score since 1952 in baton rouge louisiana so the defense was abysmal but they fired bo polini there's a new defensive coordinator in town in baton rouge and they have two of the best cornerbacks you will see and the fact that they are paired together in a tandem in elie ricks and derrick stingley jr who are two all americans in their time stingley in 2019 ricks last year in 2020 i think should give lsu fans a little bit more confidence in that this defense will be a lot better this year and then offensively i believe in max johnson yes it was a smaller sample size in his freshman year last year but eight touchdowns to only one interception and i think that's huge for a freshman because even if there was upside there if he's turning the ball over you might have some questions i think when you look at this lsu offense this year under the direction of max johnson all five offensive lineman return as well and then kate shambhute who's on the outside one of the best wide receivers in the sec possibly the country maybe the next great lsu wide receiver i think lsu can be good so i don't think it's that large of a number to back the tigers yes on the road yes with other things outside of the football field that are certainly important and yes they are playing a ucla team that whooped hawaii 44 to 10 last week and ran all over the rainbow warriors i still think it's a rather small number on a team that's ranked 16th in the country and i expect to be even better than that ranking towards the end of the year yeah if we're gonna faith in a program bouncing back lsu seems like a good one to to bet on with that with ed oh that is ben stevens check him out on twitter at ben scott stevens make sure you check out the morning after on sports grid as well ben we appreciate the time enjoy a full slate of big 10 football this week and hopefully we'll talk to you uh once again here soon i can't wait guys thanks so much for having me on jim ed pleasure to be with you guys talking college football thank you appreciate it covering the future big thank you once again to ben stevens we're swinging by and breaking down his thoughts on week one of college football and ed i think that the the approach of just finding your niche in college football is always going to be the optimal way to do things we know people like bud elliot who can like just run through like 60 000 games at once but bud elliot's brain is unique not everyone can do that and i think that having a niche whether it be a specific con conference a specific market and stuff like that it seems like if you're trying to optimize college football it does seem like that's the best way to do so yeah bill connelly can also know 100 teams inside and out and also sound intelligent about fcs games as as well um yeah i don't know i'm not i'm kind of not capable of of doing that uh my my approach with college you know i mean i think you have to know these teams in order to bet a market as hard as nfl or college football and i i can't know 130 teams to the level that uh i need to be able to bet 130 teams so yeah i mean last year i really focused on the big 10 uh i mean if you look back at the episodes we did i think a lot of the games i talked about were were big 10 games i do intend to continue that this year it obviously makes a lot of sense just living here in an arbor you know one team check right away uh also did a big big 10 east preview over on the preview series on the football analytics show but yeah no you know i didn't i didn't find any of those big 10 games that i really liked uh i think those week one lines got beat beat into shape pretty well um so we'll we'll see how it goes um but but yeah i mean i think you really do need to know the teams and the more the better um so yeah it was a great approach and and great appearance by ben yeah i mean ben's ben's great that's why i wanted him on um delight to talk to him he's always falling on the morning after as well so check out ben on sports grid on the morning after and aerial as well let's move into covering the future and as you said the big 10 lines didn't show a lot of promising stuff for you so you're going non big 10 for week one what is standing out to you yeah so i want to talk about the team from the acc that that i think has high upside and when when you talk about teams with high upside you know how one way you can kind of figure out is look at all the teams that are not named alabama that have won a national championship since nixon sabin won his first in 2009 so 2010 you have auburn cam newton was the quarterback 2013 you have florida state james winson was the quarterback 2014 ohaha estate cartel jones was the quarterback 2016 clemson deshaun watson 2018 uh clemson again trover lorence and then 2019 lsu and joe burrow so uh one of those kind of sticks out to you right a little bit yeah so so cartel jones kind of kind of sticks out all the rest of what just a slight bit yeah just a slight bit cartel jones in his 11 career nfl pass attempts but you'll notice all those other guys were the top pick in the nfl drafts and deshaun watson a guy who's play as has clearly said he was worthy to be the top pick as well so you really need a lights out quarterback if you're going to challenge in the top end of college football and alabama is also following this script as well um they're never going to try to they actually won a title with jacob coker at the quarterback position in 2015 but i don't see nixon sabin trying that again obviously the the quarterback quarterback play has been much better with two atonga vila and matt jones over the last couple years and that that offense and that program has really been changed so you know nick sabin understands the importance of offense but i really think that the top end of college football looks more and more like the nfl and we're handicapping those top games like what matters well the pass offense and uh how you can cover in the secondary and you know the i'm not saying the other stuff doesn't matter and not to the extent that you know we can show that rushing almost has zero relationship to running in the nfl but that's the direction in which especially the top of college football is moving now am i going to use that same um am i going to use that that same type of logic to to look at penn state and wisconsin in the big 10 no but when you're looking at the top teams um i i think you are you are looking at pass offense and pass defense so what is the team that is going to do well in 2021 well i really like north carolina sam howe uh is entering his uh true junior season he's been two starters there um i really like his play he's actually the favorite to be the top pick in the 2022 nfl draft over on draft kings right now and you know their their offense has been really good in my adjusted passing success rate they've been 10th and 16th over the last two years um obviously having the top pick in the nfl quarterback is not excuse me having the top pick in the next nfl draft of quarterback isn't enough you can just ask baker mayfield and and kylin worry about this uh they never were able to get it done you you have to have a pass defense and that's also something that i find really interesting about north carolina they were 22nd when i look at pass defense by adjusted success rate and that's pretty remarkable considering that three defensive backs opted out and one of their top corners stormed up didn't play after two games because of an injury they get stormed up back uh they got some great play out of tony grimes last year it looks like they have the pieces on that side of the ball as well there's uh the defensive line is pretty strong and and a bunch of highlightality guys have been recruited by mac brown so i really like the prospects north carolina uh i think they're a team with a pretty high ceiling you can actually i bet them to win the acc at 12 to 1 i think that number is kind of absurd um uh you know clinton obviously is going to be the favorite and i think that's that's giving you pretty good return on north carolina and then even if north carolina makes it through the championship game there's there's a pretty good hedging opportunity there as well so i'm high on north carolina and seeing how interested to see how they do against virginia tech starting friday night yeah that number is five and a half for u n c versus virginia tech do you think that's a fair number or do you think that you could justify laying five and a half with u n c yeah it's not a fair number okay so you want to i mean my number is like north carolina in that game and i think i think my numbers are underestimating north carolina okay that's the title i think they have okay and san howell is someone who like i i put a lot of stock in like collegiate efficiency numbers because they do translate pretty well to the nfl in terms of once you account for age and experience but howell checks those two boxes because he's already at 25 total games played and his adjusted yards per attempt as a freshman when there were fans in the stands was 9.7 so you could write off 11.1 last year because there are no fans pretty high scoring in general but like he also did it as a true freshman and i think that that matters a lot because he's entering i think it's either his age 20 or age 21 season and if you're looking for an nfl draft prospect we talked about this Trevor Lawrence during his freshman year you want a guy who is young experienced and efficient and howl right now is checking all three boxes so you're looking for a quarterback who has the upside to be that first overall pick he actually does fit in that mold very well burrow didn't but like you know he's kind of the outlier and i think that the overall mold is looking for successful guys is those checking those three boxes and howl right now does shape up pretty well for that and i think that that makes him interesting if we're looking for upside as guys who could potentially do this now i do want to bring up though you mentioned Tua you mentioned uh the alabama quarterbacks mac jones no love for greg macaroy new york jets legend i should say greg macaroy uh who and i will i will let you know is a winner in the nfl he entered a game when the jets were down three nothing against arizona mark sanchez got benched greg macaroy goes five of seven great completion percentage ignore the fact it was for 29 yards and led the jets to a seven to six victory i mean like why are we ignoring greg macaroy in this alabama quarterback discussion i i feel like greg macaroy is a great announcer i like hearing him call the games uh i'm not going to comment too much about his abilities as a quarterback but we are forgetting one nfl quarterback um a g mcarran what yeah mcarran yeah mcarran was like the most underrated college football quarterback ever their numbers were phenomenal when he was there he never really got too much respect uh he was i mean a lot better than jacob koker um so i believe he got cut for felipe frankson josh rosin this week in the nfl so uh we are we are glossing over him potentially for good reason but either way he's got more than 11 career pass attempts right this is very true almost got traded for a second and third round pick at the trade deadline at 1.2 so aji mcarran illustrious career but ed we're talking alabama quarterbacks we might as well talk mac jones versus two atonga by loa in week number one that is my cover in the future so perfect transition by you into that because i think this game is really fun pass just announced mac jones will start this game and it's probably a good thing because last year the patriots ranked 27th and schedule adjusted passing efficiency based on number fires metrics and if you're gonna have that level of efficiency it's gonna be tough to win a lot of games if you put mac jones behind a very good offensive line and an improved group of pass catchers i think they should take a step forward i do think that they're overrated for week one though so i want to go with the dolphin's money line at plus 116 i do have some improvement baked in for the patriots my numbers right now they were 27th last year is mentioned in passing efficiency i've got them 24th heading into this year that may sound low but i don't think it is because of the rookie quarterback starting in week one i have mac jones as the one of the best projected passing efficiency going in because of the offensive line and some other stuff so it's less about mac and more about the fact we don't often see rookie quarterbacks who light things up right out of the gate the patriots do get a lot of guys off to doubt last year that could help them for sure but they also open the year without stiff on gilmore uh their stud corner is going to open the year on the publicist so he will miss the first six weeks that's going to leave them short-handed on defense the dolphins are also a bit short-handed because will fuller will not play week one he is suspended they didn't have them in the preseason either though and to a tongue of i loa i thought still looked pretty good there he averaged 0.28 passing epa per drop back in the preseason that's according to nfl's next gen stats i'm not changing my prior based on that obviously because it's preseason he's playing against backups and stuff like that but i think it's reassuring given that i i've got some progression for this offense baked into my numbers and that was that will fuller divante parker didn't play in the preseason either and parker should be good to go for week one miami enters this year ranked 15th my power rankings the patriots are 21st not a big gap especially with this game being in fox bro but it's enough where i do think that there is value in the dolphins for week number one i would be checking out their team total once that's available that's not a pefandile sports book right now but once it's up i'll probably have interest there given the gilmore injury but i think with where things stand now i do like the dolphins moneyline at plus 116 again that's not an anti mac jones thing i think that he should be for a rookie quarterback pretty good this year i think it's more so about the gilmore injury being high in the dolphins in general and just you know being wary of rookie quarterbacks as a general rule of thumb and that's something you've talked about before too of being i would say wary of rookie quarterbacks is that way to is that a fair way to phrase that for you oh yeah absolutely yeah no i'm definitely i mean i love mac jones i think he's got a ton of potential uh really love his pocket presence love his accuracy but he should struggle this here right i mean that's kind of the bottom line and we talk a lot about the past catchers but like there's a reason nelson agler was available there's a reason that a lot of these guys were available kendrick born i mean johnny and hunter henry are fine but like you know right guys don't hit the open market if they are clear superstars uh so they're better than what they had last year and that's good i am again expecting them to be a lot better and expecting mac to be the best rookie quarterback from a passing efficiency perspective due to that surrounding environment but i still think it's it's fair to be a bit skeptical whereas the dolphins i think project to be a pretty good team for this year so give me the dolphins plus 116 in week number one that is all that we have here for this week on covering the spread but i am excited for next week nfl week number one just around the corner you know we'll get you set for that next week so make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast or an apple podcast spotify stitcher wherever you get your podcast you can find us and while you're there leave us a rating and review as well big thank you once again to ben stevens find him on twitter at ben scott steven to check out the morning after on sports grid to find ben and aria there thank you ben and what is going on for you this week over the power ink yeah so i'm writing my email newsletter uh so you can get that at the power ink dot com um more of my betting analytics data driven betting advice i'm also really excited about the preview series that we've done over at the football analytic show i've been producing episodes edward e-gross has been producing episodes so there's uh you know nine up eight episodes up now there'll be 10 so these are about 10 minutes each and you know the way it turned out this year we really had a chance to dig into some um analytics that you know potentially will give you an edge betting on things uh so yeah i think they're really good uh edwards episodes have been really awesome so check that out uh the football analytics show wherever you get your podcasts and again don't forget the email newsletter as well at the power ink dot com ed is on twitter at the power ink i am at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s you can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today enjoy the college football throughout this entire week and also enjoy some NFL as we get set for week number one next week we'll talk to you then this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network erin dolin here thanks for watching and make sure you click below on that subscribe button for more great fan dual content and check out some of our latest uploads and playlists right over here