 Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of theaccessatrader.com. Weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well. I wish I was doing a little bit better when fighting a flu bug, some sort of bug. I tested negative for COVID, but I feel like crap. Anyway, battle over through what can you do. You live, drink plenty of fluids, get some rest, Advil, Advil, Nyquil, Dayquil, Dogpills, everything in between. But again, life goes on in just a little speed bump along the way. So I'm going to try to make this video as quick as possible, just to kind of give you guys my little opinion and kind of what happens, what I think is going to happen on Monday. If you are brand new to the channel, thank you for watching, right? Thank you for watching. Consider coming aboard. Like, share, subscribe, all the good stuff that you can come by. I see exactly what we do, what we have to offer on a nightly basis and hopefully continue to take the journey to never-ending education and never-ending happiness because that's what Trader's Life is all about. So let's talk about it. This has been one of the weirdest sequences of control of a trend that I could remember in a very, very long time. Again, if you've been watching this broadcast for a long time, you know the importance of the 50-day moving average above the 50-day starts to trend to the upside, below the 50-day starts to trend to the downside. The problem is in the last month or so, there's been an incredible fight over control of the 50-day moving average for a number of weeks. And every single time you think it's going to go in that direction, there's an opposite event, whether it's Fed-driven, earnings-driven, whatever the case may be, there's an opposite event that takes the market the complete opposite way. So you can just see it just in the last couple of, just going from August, right? Here's where we lost the 50-day moving average, went down, we were below the 50-day for about, you know, three weeks. But above the 50-day started a really good five-day rally, you know, a little bit of gas. We came back in, tested the 50-day moving average, and then we lost it again, right? We lost it again two days in a row, now right at the 50-day moving average. So it's a really, really aggressive fight. And when you look at charts, and we'll get to some charts in a few minutes, we'll give you guys some ideas for Monday. But when you look at charts, especially in members of the NASDAQ 100, you'll see, you know, a really big disconnect between some of the leaders. So let me give you guys, give you a couple of examples, just because we're going above and below the 50-day moving average, nonstop on the last three days, the last three weeks. So you have Amazon, right? Amazon is above the 50-day moving average and looks great, right? It looks absolutely great. Getting a bunch of call buying. We saw this week, for next week, the 140s, the 145s. We saw some 150s for September and October. A name like Microsoft looks great as well, right? It looks absolutely great. It's just continuing to form a little bit of flag here above the 50-day moving average, had a really rock star type of scenario. And then you go back to the other, you know, the other spectrum, you know, a lot of NASDAQ 100 names just don't look good right now. You have AMD, right? AMD is below the 50-day moving average. And you see this whole range here? It's trying to hold on to this range here, but if it starts losing this range here, it's going to go back down to the 150-day moving average. Again, not good. Look at a name, for example, like NVIDIA. And NVIDIA should be, if you trade, if you trade high beta mega cap names, and we'll go over a majority of the symbols, this should be something you're definitely, it should be monitoring going into this week. It's now holding the bottom of the range on the 50-day moving average, okay? For all you guys who know the significance of the day that a stock reclaims the 50-day or loses the 50-day, you know the importance of what might potentially happen to NVIDIA if it loses the 50-day moving average. We'll get to that in a second. A name like Tesla, right? A name like Tesla. And you could turn around and, you know, again, you can make a case both ways. There's a bull flag, there's a bear flag. Well, Dan, how could it be a bear flag? I'll get to that in a second. You know, the stock had one big move, now it's just consolidating, right? But yet, here's the other side of the equation. It's consolidating below the 50-day moving average. So there's a lot of names that you can really have a conversation this weekend with another trader, a group of trader, your friends, whatever the case may be, that stocks appear to be bullish or bearish. So if you look at the indexes through the week, you see the S&P down 1.3%. You see NASDAQ down 1.9% and the Dow down 0.8%. But more important is where these indexes are to start the week. Right now, the QQQs are sitting right at the 50-day moving average. So any little, you know, any little nudge, like the close below, is going to be very, very important. The SPAS-PYs are below the 50-day moving average and got rejected on the 5 on Friday. And the Dow Jones will use the diamonds as a proxy. The Dow now is building three days in a row below the 50-day moving average as well. And the question is now, what's going to drive prices? Right? And again, that's always an honest question that every single trader should be asking because you need a catalyst. Now that the earnings season is out of the way and we thought, well, now they did a great job. They reclaimed the 50-day moving average. We're going to rally. And now the fact that we gave it all back, the question is, well, what happens next? That's a great question. And again, granted, we have a lot of Fed, CPI, PPI is all coming down the line. We have all this, you know, non-farm data, NFP, all that stuff, right? All that stuff that's so confusing to everybody because how could one data be perceived differently than the next day's data? But that's what we are. That's kind of the world we live in. So the question is, what happens next? And that's the hardest part. We don't know, right? We don't know. That's why I always say, take it day by day, right? I'm not a smart guy. I don't pretend to be a smart guy. I'm not, you know, I'm not trying to predict the future. I'm trying to win the next day, right? Getting a series of ideas, setups that I feel comfortable trading on both sides of the market that I'm not, you know, that I'm not pinned into a corner, trapped into a corner that I am unprepared. And if one side of the market doesn't confirm I'm doing nothing on the other side of the market by, you know, twiddling my nails, I'm prepared. And that's the whole point. We want to be prepared on both sides. So going into this week, I think you have to keep your eyes open on both sides moved because the one thing we did see throughout the week is every single time the market tried to rally and it was aggressive. Again, you saw the charts of Microsoft and Amazon, they look great, right? And then you have a whole bunch of names like Apple. There's just been just death, right? Just absolute death. The China news is not helping out. So it's very, very tough to get excited when the leaders are split in half. But that's kind of the theme going into this week. So we have to just, especially for Monday, you have to have the ability to kind of let the market filter out the noise for the first half hour because again, you want to see a trend develop. If the market is going to be strong, you want to see the bulls take a couple of kidney punches to the gut to make sure, you know, to make sure that, you know, they're withstanding a body blow and continue to brush off bad news to go higher. At the same time, if you believe that the index is starting to build back below the 50-day moving average, which is supply, you want to pay attention to the weak names that can't rally on the first rule of the features. So my advice in the first half hour of the day, 20 minutes, half hour of the day, let the noise die out. Again, there's always that exuberance of excitement, the new traders, we always tongue in cheek, mock them with, you know, nothing malicious, obviously, just, you know, good nature ribbing of is it Monday, Tuesday? Okay, so that too shall pass, trust me. But, you know, let the testosterone, let all that nervous energy die out in the first 20, 30 minutes, let the market tell you what is happening, watch the options market, watch the option flow. If they're coming in with, you know, deep, out-of-the-money calls with short-term expiration over and over and over and your favorite code names, usually good things are going to happen. If they start coming for the out-of-the-money, deep, you know, out-of-the-money put buying with short-term expiration on your favorite names, well, pay attention to that too. And again, you always want to be prepared on both sides of the market, have the ability to trade both sides of the market and have the ability to enter those trades with full confidence and full conviction. So let me give you guys some names that I am watching because, again, as you can tell by my face and my voice, I just don't feel well. I'm going to go back to bed after I'm done and try to get, you know, try to rest up and hopefully be 100% going into next week. So let me give you guys some ideas. Microsoft has been very, very strong, very, very strong. Even when, you know, even when the market is getting hit, had a really bad day on Friday, the only reason why the stock stopped is this upper Bollinger band. So if the market is strong, you want to watch Microsoft. Again, this is one of, you know, one of the four horsemen. This is one of the leaders that look incredibly good. You want to watch Amazon. You know, Amazon is one of the very few names that are well above the 50-day moving average and they're building, right? This is the highest close formation in this whole move. Again, if the market continues to be strong, pay attention to the Amazon. You know, watch the highs from September 1st and then obviously watch macro highs if the market can reclaim back the 50-day moving average and start going in that direction. Look at a name, for example, like IONQ, right? This has been one of the, you know, one of the nice surprises of 2023. I have no idea what this thing is, but we've traded it a number of times. Again, another name that is above the 50-day moving average and it's a stull throws away from taking out the top of the range. And if it does take out the top of the range and the market continues to rally, this thing could wake up as well. Again, nice looking chart. Now let's talk about, you know, you know, let's talk about purgatory. Okay. Tesla is definitely a purgatory name and the only reason why, again, there is a flag building and I think we could all agree on that here. Here's your shaft or staff. That's what she said. But you could see a building, right? The question is, is this a bull build? Right? Is this a bull market build or is this a bear market build? Again, you can make that argument that, hey, it's a bullish formation, but hey, it's been rejected off the 50-day moving average now, you know, three out of the last six days. So it's one of those scenarios that it's getting super, super tight and eventually it's either going to confirm the top of the range or the bottom of the range. Again, you can make that case for every stock, but not every single stock is this tight and that's the whole point. Tesla eventually is going to make a really, really aggressive move. I'm assuming it's going to happen at some point this week. It's very, very rare a stock continues to build in this type formation with the market showing the volatility waves that it has gaining and losing the 50-day moving average, but definitely, definitely watch it. Obviously, I trade Tesla both ways. It's my favorite stock. It's always my biggest position. So keep an eye on this thing on the bottom of the range here, right? The bottom of the range here above the 20-day moving average and keep this obviously an effective reclaim the 50, right? If we can reclaim the 50, that's when potential to the upside begins. Here's the one name I definitely, well, let me give you guys a couple more names. Look at AYX. AYX, the reason why the run-up, there was rumors that they put themselves up for sale. Keep an eye on this thing. This thing is just sitting here, right? It never sold off, and this is one of those things you have to pay attention to. It never sold off after the initial pop on chatter. Look how close this thing is to the 50-day. Watch this AYX, okay? If this thing starts popping above and reclaims back the 50-day moving average and you get another surge of headlines that potentially could put itself up for sale, you never know. You can get a pretty good move here. Let me give you guys a couple of names to the downside I really like. Guys, watch Chewy. This is always my favorite setup. My favorite setup is always the earnings lows. Chewy has been an incredibly aggressive destruction stock since July. You can see that. Stock, again, got hit on earnings. Guys, watch the bottom channel here. If it starts losing the earnings lows, I understand the stock already had a big move, but if the market gets pulled, I mean this thing, again, you want to shoot the wounded animal. Maybe it's a bad example. Don't kill me, Peter, or anybody else. Is it Peter? I don't know. I'm sick. Don't take anything I'm saying seriously. Anyway, so Chewy, watch the bottom of the range here. Earnings lows. This thing starts confirming earnings lows. You could have another two, three, four days of downside. Let's talk about the last one. Last but not least is Levidia. So you've seen this nonsense news, and maybe it's not nonsense. Okay, I don't want to say that, but I've always joked around about Levidia and that the running joke has been, you guys noticed that Levidia is always the stock that's on the forefront of every revolution, right? AI revolution. You know, they're the leader of AI, you know, Bitcoin revolution. They're the bigger, you know, they're their leader in Bitcoin, you know, Bitcoin mining, you know, video games. They're the leader of video, right? I always joke around that and I say, well, imagine, you know, imagine if something shies these going on. I will obviously don't believe that. I'm like, you know, I'm saying that for, for effect, right? You know, obviously I'm not, I don't believe that on the surface. Is it possible? Everything is possible. Apparently this week somebody, and I think 22, 23 years old, published some sort of article on social media. It's been making the rounds. Talking about Levidia is, you know, is a fraud, is this that? Slow your roll. You're 22 years old. I'm trading longer than you're alive. Okay, before you can make these accusations, you better have some damn good proof. So let's take that out of the way. I think a lot of people run with negativity and nonsense to push their own narrative, to push their own agenda. There's nothing been, there's nothing on the surface that suggests that the stock is a fraud. So let's, let's take that out of the way. And then you see somebody else tweeting out, well, the CEO, you know, the CEO of the company, you know, CEO of the company has sold $40 million worth of stock. Guys, the stock is up 200%. Of course you're going to see sells. What are you kidding me? You have people on social media trading for three cents. The CEO is making $40 million worth of sales after a 200, 220% run up in the stock in a year. Nobody's going to be buying the stock. You're not going to see an insider buy the stock after a 200% run up. They're taking money off the table and it's scheduled sales. Let's not get to start talking about the Oliver Stone conspiracy theories. If there's something down the road, there's something down the road, but slow your roll, right? Slow your roll, let things play out. Having said that, right? Having said all that. And the video is very, very close here. You see how it's just sitting here on the 50-day moving average folks, right? Everybody see that? The 50-day moving average is pretty damn important. When it lost it for a couple of days, when it lost it for a couple of days in, in, what is it, in July, the stock went from 443 to 403. You see that? It lost 40 points. You see that, you see that light blue line? That's the 50-day, okay? So that's kind of, that's kind of putting that into your brain for a second, right? So here's the 50-day moving average. You see how it's just sitting here? Forget about, you know, what somebody says on social media, cooking the books all nonsense, right? Until that happens, it's all nonsense. But watch the 50-day, okay? If NVIDIA starts losing the 50-day on the close, yeah. I mean, this was a small sample size all the way in, in, in July. So it had 40-point moving July to the downside. Watch NVIDIA this week. It doesn't have to happen on Monday. It doesn't have to happen on Tuesday. It doesn't have to happen on Thursday. It doesn't have to happen. Maybe the stock holds this whole level and starts moving higher. But my point is be prepared, right? Watch the bottom channel here. If NVIDIA starts losing the 50-day moving average, there is going to be a problem. And you're not going to want to buy that first-day dip, trust me. So, you know, guys, have a great remainder of your Sunday, Saturday, today is Saturday, right? Yeah. I'm recording. I don't even know what day this is. I'm recording this on Saturday, at 10.13 in the morning. Listen, who knows what's going to happen over the weekend? Some news, not news. But the point is, guys, stay healthy. So I try to do, get myself back into 100% for the week. Be good to people. Live life with kindness, with empathy, with a smile on your face, and life just tastes a little bit better. Guys, God bless. Stay blessed. I'll see you all next week. Take care.