 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. Good morning, everyone. Basil Chapman here. This is the Tuesday edition of the Tiger Technicians Hour. This is Tuesday the 5th of March. Let's go to the Dow. A little bit of a balance here, right at the Chapman Wave Insight Track Pro-Palin Zone. Remember these two parallel lines? This is a mini-channel. When two lines are parallel, it's called a channel. This is another channel. That's the Insight Track Repelin Zone. Remember, we're looking at this. So the Dow is down 128,000 and 38,000, 857, near-term, not long-term, but near-term with a short position. Still holding that. The technicals are starting to weaken, but that night, we're moving averages still. Let me just show you here. You can see a little clearer. Oops, not here. Oh, I didn't realize I had that still. Oh, let me just, I've got this here I'll talk about. This is the I-Share. This is where I show subscribers on the weekend when I do my hour-long video with a market overview of what we're looking at, positions, why we're looking at those, et cetera. So you can see this is the 30-year T1 yield. That's the white one. The brown one is the TNX, the 10-year yield. The cyan is the 5-year. And I'd say we've gone and made a peak D in the 30-year on the weekly chart. And I'm anticipating that it pulls back. And then this will be the rectangle trading band, and we're in that trading band right now. We're into the top of the line. Now we're pulling back a bit. This is with the I-Share's Global Timber and Forestry ETF. Weekly chart, it's doing quite nicely, but it's not breaking out, but it's still actually holding pretty well. That's a global timber and forestry ETF. The Philadelphia Housing Index, really strong rally in a leg E. This is a weekly chart. You'd expect in these conditions that the Philadelphia Housing Index would be pulling back, but it's not. It's been rallying. All right, let me get out of this because I wanted to show you. Let's get out of that. Close workspace. Save. Got to always save. Otherwise there's a problem. Got it. Okay. Now I wanted to show you right here. We'll go to this particular chart and it's called Blank Demo, and there it is. So don't think. I think there's a trend change right now, at least in the down and the S&P. I'm waiting to see whether there's some kind of a balance or what's going to happen in the S&H as we'll talk about that, but look here is the, let me just do this right now. We're out of this position. Let me go to this one right here. Yeah. So you see that for the first time, the green nine-period moving average is pulling back. The 14-period moving average, the black line, is just starting to dip a little bit, but until there's not just a sharp close under the 14-period moving average, until the green line, that's the nine-period moving average, fails and goes under the 14 where we get any. I don't even have a cell signal. Let alone a cell mode, which is an upgrade of a cell signal, but I do have right here. I have it from there to there. You can see the on balance volume went a little higher. Got that exact little peak right there, but nothing's happening. Now here is the chart when it's talking about just the gray line. The gray line is the Dow itself. See how it's gone under the 14-period moving average? The day is young, but I think there's going to be, I'll talk about it in a moment. There's going to be selling, and I don't see any, I don't have any time sequence, anything right now. It's within a little window, but I don't want to talk about that. I want to talk about when the selling starts in the semiconductor index, I think it won't be timing, it won't be anything that really makes it, it won't be the moon, it won't be the Chapman wave, it won't be the Elliott wave, it'll be the selling that precipitates a very sharp waterfall cascade to the downside. And that would be a sign to say on the shorter term, and we don't know yet if it will be even a short term, but if it is, that could become an intermediate term sell-off in a really important sector of the semi. It hasn't happened, it's not even close yet to happening, but it's getting close itself. I think it has the SMHs, because strong the nine-period moving average has been. Even on these dips, it hasn't turned pink, it's still green, that's very positive. So I'm watching it very closely, a little doji candle right now, from yesterday is high, but it does that every once in a while, but you wouldn't expect that at highs, all-time highs, you get this tiny little candle-like momentum when you throw a ball up, there's that absolute split second where there's zero percent gravity. It's not going up, but it's not going down, it's what happens the very next moment that tells you, and this is the very next moment, so that's just a hint to say, we haven't gone yet above yesterday's high semi-conductors, I want to get, I really want to get to this first. So the Dow is down 173, I said to subscribers, this is a Chapman wave, I'll do it on this chart that I show subscribers every day. This is a Chapman wave Roman candle, a green Roman candle, and that says within two sessions, if there is a 90-minute hold below the midpoint of the long wick at the bottom, and I said 38, 8, 30, be careful because not only could you take out the high or the lower Friday, but it could go quite a bit lower under the 14-period moving average, that's exactly what it's done, and now it's at, I really use this, this is a 20-period exponential moving average. Okay, so that's what I was showing, and you've got a dreaded H pattern in the 120-minute chart, this is an automatic 38, 6, 30, is an automatic Chapman wave support level, these are automatic Chapman wave resistance levels, and it's being repelled from those levels, so the real thing is how does the Dow on a 120-minute basis treat 38,741.68? If it closes decisively below that for about two bars, that's 120-minute bars, you could see a one-to-one to the downside of the arch. I'm only saying, I'm not saying that's going to happen, that's the technique. I'm going to show this right now because I have it here, some of you asked, what's that chart on the right? This chart on the right has the Dow, this is the weekly chart, green, mostly green, there are two red candles, maybe three red candles on the weekly chart, this is the S&P, look how strong that is, way above all that resistance in the cup formation, it's really a bull formation, and here's the NDX100 right there, and here's the S&H, it's leading the way, remember my theory always is the S&H is the semiconductors, this is the 21st century crude oil of the 1900s, as important, even more important now I wouldn't say more, it's as important in some sectors is way more important, that's chips, that's the chips that go into everything these days, automobiles used to have like five or ten chips, I don't even know how many hundreds they have now, all right, so this is the estimate is very strong, and the one that's lagging is the IWM, and even today the IWM is down 61 cents and 265, I just like to see the relationship and they're all going up, somewhat a little stronger than the others, there's some other things I want you to show you here, let me just do this, to make it as simple as possible, I could go to the other one, but I'm going to go to this chart right here, look, that's the dollar, the dollar for the first time in a while, I went green, it's been green for the 9p moving in, went pink for a couple of days, and now I'm not sure it's a little bit blue, it looks like it is, it's gone from L to S, or maybe it's back to L, I want to show you this chart right here, I'll be right back, that's a chapter in Tiger Technicians. 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Look, if you went long in video, you would have got chopped around over here for about a year and a half. But once it starts to hold the green or the pink, in this case the green line, you can just hold it in this case at 475 and it's trading right now at 845. And that green line is still there. Even that sharp pullback with a price which way under it did not turn pink. This is the daily chart of Nvidia. Look at the SMHs. The SMHs. Same thing. You would have got out and you would have to get back in almost a day later. But it kept you in the trade. So that's the reason why when I say a long term for the Dow, no intention of getting out. We've been long since the low there from since the low March, sorry, this is October low here, going back to the March low of the Dow. And the trading positions are, you've got to consider this. So this is green. It's getting overextended by any stretch of the imagination, but you have to have patience to wait. That means sometimes you can go from the high to where you get the confirmation of the pink and you lose a lot of points. But on the whole you've made a huge chunk on the way up. So I wanted to show that chart. Now I want to go to something that I think is absolutely imperative to monitor why. Because look, in the SMHs, down 3.37 right now, 220.66. And I said to subscribers, this is what we're looking to try again to short. And one of the reasons is in a sector, in an index, in an ETF, you have all these positions. How on earth, just before you make an all-time high, can you get an open of a round number? This is not the first round number, but it's a round number of 224, where would it go? Oh, there it is. Open 224.00. Makes an all-time high of 227.13. And all I can say is that is so unusual. Look at this. RSP. RSP is the S&P equal weight ETF. So that's the 500 stocks, but this is measured as an equal weight. In other words, they reconfigured it, so you have equal weight for the stocks. Well, look what happened. It went to, this is now, days Tuesday, on Friday. It has this huge chapwave, a green Roman candle, closes above it. If it closes above it for two days, and that high, is 164.00. It also opened that day at 163.00. This is 500 stocks. And it comes in with a round number. And then today it has a chapwave, two-bar reversal, the high yesterday was 164.70. Today's high is 164.67. Three cents lower. The day is young. Anything can happen. But I'm looking at this unbalanced volume is very overboard. And then I say to myself, but what are you going to do? That's already the question here. So what are you going to do? Well, the MACD is strong. The rent of strength is strong. The 90s way over the 14, and the price is way over the nine. But the most important thing is that the stochastics at 95.10%. Well, let's go back to this chart right here, which we haven't looked at for some time. And let's see what that means. That means, wait, this is the RSP. RSP. Why am I not getting it? RSP? There it is. That means that when the stochastic is at 96% and flat, it's only when it reverses sharply and comes down, you've got to be somewhat careful, but then you've got all the other indices. Look what happens when it reverses sharply after being so strong in the 90% plus area. When it comes down, that's where you start to see weakness. But that has to really pull back. And that just says to me that it has to be RSP, something that triggers the sell-off. And you're not getting it. If you're getting it, it has to come from, as I said, I think it has to come from the RSP to get a concerted effort. I'm not just talking about one of these daily pullbacks, big red candle, then it flips back to green. No, I'm talking about three candles, big red three candles. Well, this is the RSP itself, 87% in the stochastic and flat. On balance volume is just turning down, it's overboard, but it's just turning down, make these turning down a little bit. But there's that green line, it hasn't turned pink. So it is frustrating in the sense that it is so easy just to stay in the long positions. Don't even think of the short positions. When we're at highs like this and we keep getting a particular sector, now let me show you, look at NVIDIA. NVIDIA is down, oh, it's down to eight points at 843. He made a high yesterday, all-time high, of 876.95. It had a right day before. The day before it had a round number open of 800, ran through 823 as the all-time high, 823. And then what happens the next day, gaps up and goes to an even higher high. But this cluster of round numbers is a phenomenon that I can't ignore because it's telling me that there are fund managers and whatever it is, big money is coming in and saying, I've got to have it. Of course, for every buyer, there's a seller. But you can go back, go back in the charts and have a look at your daily charts, go back to any of the previous peaks. You never saw anything quite as consistent as this. However, NVIDIA has been doing this since it was down on January the 31st. 607 was the low, a round number low, and here it is, over 50% high, 643, no, 40-something percent high, and hasn't yet turned down. So am I making a big deal about nothing? Well, I always say that the technical tools I use come to me. I actually, would I ever look for round numbers? Who would even think of that? Would I look for Chapman's instant restart or the overlapping wave? No, over the decades and over the thousands, hundreds of thousands of charts that I've notated, this is the thing that the configuration that I look at pops out and means says, hey, you've seen this so many times, don't you think it means anything? What I'm saying is that I can only look back in a few weeks' time, see where the price is, but something tells me that this whole sector of lots of micro devices I was asked about, yep, I'll look at that. AMD had a 193 round number low, when was that? 192, wow, home time down, I forgot to put it where it was, I was going to close. Anyway, hand around number, it popped up an all-time high of 211.01 yesterday and it's trading right now 201.72. It is down three and a half. I'll guess for some of these results, I was asked about the AV, AV drones they make, had a huge gap to the outside, beautiful action. Currencies, commodities, and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger 4x report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the 4x markets every Monday using his 30-plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, 4x, stocks, and options. 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So this is what I wanted to say. As we're going out, there were a couple of people that lost me about AVAV that was an investor of business daily yesterday, right up, had really good earnings. This is Aerovironment. It's one word, Aerovironment. I can't stand when they mix words like that. Anyway, it does form a military drone switchblade. It's called Fantastic Action. Toodling along with round number open yesterday at 135, has a round number 130, around number, opens at 135. Oh, and that 135 was also the high. And then what happens today? The low is one, it opens at 150.64. Amazing. You have 15 points higher, and it screams to 165. Now, will that come back to the 135s? I don't know. It's a leg F in the monthly chart. I wouldn't be surprised if that's an alternate count F slash B. But the weekly chart has got the A, B, C, a leg D right now, and the daddy's got a D. Oh, this is fantastic. I had this. Actually, I was looking at this a while back, and it irritated me. The Aerovironment name. So AVAV. And I thought, okay, just keep it in your list, and I just forgot about it. And then I thought, isn't that a spectacular action? So let's get back to our story. So I want you to just go through this. I had a question also about ARM. ARM, there's ARM holdings, licensing for semis, trading down five and a half with 132.63. Had a round number, 164 round number high all the time. I must put in that date, because I keep talking about it. That's the 212. All right. Let's just put it in. There we go. 2, 2, 12, 24. And we've seen a whole chunk of round numbers in the others. But funny enough, this one seems to avoid that. It doesn't like round numbers. Oh, 137 low was the low of the 27th of Feb. Let me just double check. I think it had that. And I think it might have had one more. Well, so far, yes, there it is. Right there. Oh, today's lows, one 30 round number. I can't tell you how many of these stocks have drawn number lows or highs. And they took them out in today. But they were there. And they were there for long enough for me to see them. So I'm just saying to you, there's a chance fading out of PB coming around if at any point in the next week or two, arm holdings takes out 115, closes below 115. That's a big problem. It's giving up all of this sideways action with the 164 high, round number high. The question came in. So I did that. Oh, here's the other thing. Look, here's the SMHs. Did I just, I think I did. The SMHs had a 227.13 high yesterday. Oh, yes, I did. And had a 224.00 round number high. Here it is down four and a half or two now. I think that when the sun comes into the semis, it's going to be so quick, it's going to be equivalent to what we've just seen for the buying that's come in in gold. The gold is up 16, like 2143. We talked about the way it held the 200-period moving average that the pink 9-period moving average needs to turn green. And the moment it turned green from the load that was made on the 29th of February, 2036, huge green candles. And the target would naturally be, let me just draw this in first. That would be your first target, Chen line, repellent zone right there. It's getting close to it. But with this kind of power, can it even be stopped unless there's something going on? So now you have to look at gold and say, wait, is that purely because it's an over, a very over, a very oversold condition? Well, I think there are a couple of things going on. If you look at the GLD, this is a new recovery high. You only have multi-year high, right? As we're trading up at $197.64 up to $60. There's your leg D in the weekly chart. 9-period moving average is fabulous. MACD turned back to positive. Stochastic was really weak, but now it's at 69%. It's still weak, but improving on balance volume in the weekly is a little overboard. And there's this very strong move up in the MACD. One of the reasons why I put the MACD above the stochastic is every once in a while, you get such a powerful move from the low that it gives like a squash, shall we have squashed? Squashed is, it's like a little rubber ball that you squeeze in as you open it. It just pops back up. Well, that says very quickly, do you get from a peak A to a B to a C? And then maybe there's a little bit of a rest before it gets to a D because the torque, the momentum that comes from the stochastic running sharply from under 20% to over 80%, 96% right now, is the reflex action like a spring that says, now I can hand the torque over to the momentum of the MACD. On balance volume is getting somewhat overboard. So we could see some kind of a pullback, little dogy candle so far, the day is just a year over just over an hour long. So within that context, this is really good action. Let's look at silver. Silver is trading up 20 cents at 24.19. Had a lousy action a week ago, it was down to the bottom in the 20 to 50s. And here it is 24.19. Very good action. That's leg B. But what we've seen very often in these reflex A, we don't know if it's a reflex action just yet. But what I am going to say is have a look at the dollar. The dollar, the DXY, isn't really accelerating yet to the downside. Yeah, it's down 14 ticks at 103.70. I suspect it's going to make the challenge of the dreaded H right there. And if it takes out and closes underneath the 200-peer moving average and takes out the 103.43, the continuous contract, the low of the 22nd of February, then we've got a much bigger consolidation going on there. But that weekly chart is still positive at this particular point based on the 914. So within that context, let's look at the EURUSD. And that currency pair, euro and the dollar currency pair, is not breaking out yet to the upside. But it is rallying. And if you look at the commensurate move down in the USDJPY, that's the USDJPY of that major double top in the 151 area, this is holding really well. But it is down 54 cents at 149.98. PICC1, PICC2, it acts like a PICD, it's kind of a top. But I haven't even got a cell signal yet. In this, I haven't got, let me just look at the dollar. The dollar is just about to give a cell signal. I have to wait for the end of the day, but not a cell mode just yet in the daily chart. So this is very interesting because you've got silver up sharp in terms of pure moving average. It's not really breaking out. It's acting very well, certainly. So I'm watching this very closely. GDX is the gold miners. It scores right at the change of pure moving average. That's what you spoke about yesterday, by 28 to 90. What does it do? I'll be back down to 215.45. The gold report. As a precious metal, gold is still king. 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Distributor, four-side fund services, LLC. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Correct. I was asked if the pink and the one-five and ten-minute charts would be short with a week. Yes. Right now the one-minute chart you're getting is just a slight change of, just a slight attempt at getting positive. So let me just add a quick three, no I had four or five questions that I need to get to right away. So you just said there's a trend change in the spy, correct? No. What I said was with this doji candidate 5140.33 with a round number that I had on the RSP, my suspicion is that we're getting to a moment where if there is intense selling in this, you've got to see the SMHs going down with the market. Now the SMHs are building steam to the downside, we just missed going short that again. The SMHs is down almost five. What I did say is from the look of the spy with that candle going from, every time I see a G-C with an overlapping wave, with an alternate count, I'm sorry, I'm just doing two things at once. What happened to my mouse? There it is. Click. That went to a D and it went to a D in the inside, jet wave inside track repellents. I'm going to do this for a moment because it is so important. I noted ages ago, I mean I'm talking about maybe more than 20 years ago, no more than that, more than 20 years ago, that you can take channels. Channels are important, but within the channels, if you learn how to have what I call the inside track repellent, a little mini channel that tells you every time it goes inside you, what happens next is really important. Is this the same candle that we got just the other day when we made PG and pulled back in the S&P? At this particular point, it's a gap down from that little tiny evening sun on what you want to call it, it's a tiny doji candle, so not even a dragonfly candle. That just says to me from the high in the spy, from the high in the spy of 540.20 with a round number low of 312, so let me just type that in, 314.20. It's a work in progress because I don't think we have any news right now to say 302.4. I'm putting 4.20, 4.20. With the news, there's no real news to say, oh man, this market has to tank. So without that dark news, because the yields are coming down, crude oil is not breaking out, so it has gold is spiraling up for a couple of reasons, and I'm going to talk about that in a moment, but what I am looking at here is that this with an overboard situation in the on balance volume, right there, with a stochastic flatted 87%, with a magti about to turn negative, it just has to turn negative, but the nitri is still very strong. It has to be selling pressure, and my suspicion is that the selling pressure has to come from areas like the semiconductors. It just has to get a continuation of the selling pressure. Okay, so what I'm going to say to you is it is the start in the weekly chart is still a leg B, and I made a new high yesterday, so this is still a leg B, all week it's a leg B, even though you have to call it a leg B until the end of next week where it could become a P-B. But I'm saying on a short-term basis, I'm anticipating from everything that I've been looking at, there is some kind of selling pressure that just selling begins selling, a little biblical saying, maybe how selling begins selling, you know, sheep or lamb or ox anything, but it's selling begins selling, and we'll have to watch it. Why? Because it's at 507. If the spy actually closes under 504, under 503.80, something in that area, that just says, hey, finally that green period moving in, that green nine period moving average can actually start to get under the 14, but it'll take even more than that to do. I'm done with that. So it's in the process, I think we're in the process of making some kind of a short-term top, but you've got the XLF, and I have to go to other things right now, the XLF is trading up at a new recovery high, the all-time high is 4170, it's at 40.57, and I blink away from potential double top, but it's doing very well, so you've got this rotation. Okay, question came in, here we go. PLTR, what do I think of Palantir? I said yesterday I didn't get to do it, I said that I think that the 22s, it's going to be very important for support, and right now it's at 23.59 down 45, it's made a potential double top with that peak F, I'm watching it because at any point if it closes under 22.29, let's just say if it closes under 22, it's in a fuller chunk of not maybe the gap, but at least some part of the candle's down below, it has to get to the 2630s by Friday. I think it's a really good weekly chart, good monthly chart, I just think it looks like a break is coming. mRNA, that's a rest period, mRNA, mRNA, that is Moderna, look at it right here, trading at down at dollar 92 with 94.08, so this keeps getting stories and then it has no story. I think it's in a trading band, it's at 94, I think 96.80, just under 97 is your resistance, but if it breaks under 90 in the next week, that's a problem because it should probably test the 85 area support, but right now it's just going sideways, I just, I can't see anything in it, it's not breaking down, it's not breaking up, it's just stuck. This Christian came in, QQQ, yes the QQQ made a new all-time high on Friday, but it hasn't on Monday and Tuesday, I'm thinking this could very well become a peak C in the weekly chart, so in a leg C, I have to wait the entire week to call it a peak C because it's a weekly candle, it's a leg B in the monthly, so very positive looking out, shorter term, look at that pullback, this one needs at 436, if it closes under 430 this week, that's a real problem, sounds like a lot, another six points down, down eight already, but that's what I'm saying and it'll be fantastic if we can go to the 447, 448 area, that'll be fine, I just don't think it's going to do that right now, I am very cautious, raising cash, I did that, did that, did that, did that, so AVAV, this is an amazing move, Anna's holding very well, it's right in the perfect sweet spot, when I looked at it I said, gotta buy it, and I didn't realize the earnings were so fantastic that it would gap up, it's up 34 right now at 165.09, that's all I can say, so let me just sum up before we go out of this for the final round, I just wanted to see here, we've got a little bit of that, yeah, yes, so what I want to look at here is just briefly before we go to the break, Tesla, and oh thank you for that message, I don't get the Hong Kong market anymore, I used to get them all for some reason, I haven't been able to get them on Trade Station, 179.32 is Tesla's price right now, down eight, this is credit H, I think it's going to fail at peak A, under the 200p moving average, it's been a repellent zone, a perfect area, and just to look at that, and I would just say, if you're short, I'd stay short, I'd probably say take some part of your position, and just lower the stop to about 100.9, and hope it goes well. 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Just to wrap it up, who is Steve? We made it. He announced started to pull back. It is training at 2380. It has to hold 20 to 60. Otherwise it goes back towards the 21s. That's really important. The Hong Kong, if you look at EWH, I don't like to use the ETF because it really doesn't always conform exactly to the index itself. But this has the dreaded H in the monthly chart at the 16 level and it's training at 1596. It's going under it. It has two bars which is decisively closed above it. This is a bit of a problem overall in the market. One of the things I like to look at over the years is sometimes you get selling that is pure selling for selling sake because you've got no more buyers left. And that's what I think the round numbers are telling me. You have very few buyers left and you're not going to be selling just a bit more. That's more than you can get. That's serious. This is your cycle date. This is just a rough step. It's a perfect start.