 The following is a presentation of TFNN. Trade what you see with Larry Pezzavento. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now, Larry Pezzavento. Okay, looking good. Billy Ray feeling good, Lewis. Welcome to the show today from the beautiful, I guess it would be the bank of the Rudder Thames. I'm looking at it across the street here in front of the house and it's very nice. They have these beautiful boats that go up and down. They start here in the spring and continue on to the wintertime. It goes almost what it does go the whole length of the country, so it's a pretty neat place. And of course it goes up to Windsor Castle and up there in the mountains. Well, they're not mountains, but they're big hills up near Stonehenge. I posted a chart here of the natural gas folks. You'll see we had a double ABCD pattern here. This is one of the trades that we were looking at for the folks that were trading in the live trading on Friday. And of course I posted, I said it should go to 89. I said, but if it goes to above 92, 93, it's almost wrong. And so today this thing just absolutely exploded to the upside. We went so much higher that when I looked at it, I actually, I couldn't believe it because we went way above the 1.27 itself, which that is really something. And the question that we didn't know at the time, this is going to happen, of course. But we don't know when these are going to do this. I mean, when you get a move that, you know, blasts through like this, I mean, your last target is right here. And that's where you wanted to be selling it at $5.89. And use a $3 stop is what I expected this stop would have been around 92, 93. And you can see we went all the way up to 6.12. I mean, the difference between 93 and 6.12 is $1,000, folks. The risk is just too great when it does that. Now, one of the questions that was asked me during that time, what will I do if it goes above that? I said, really nothing. I said, I have to wait till I see another pattern because this has gone beyond the 1.27 even. The only thing I would be looking at would be way up here at the 1.618. I don't have anything to do with that, folks. Remember, when we're dealing with these things that are Fibonacci spirals, I'm trying to draw one here. You'll see here that all of these things are Fibonacci spirals leading to higher prices. But once we go beyond that 1.27 level, it says, my gosh, we're heading towards 1.618. And beyond that, boy, we don't have anything to do with it, folks. 1.618 is the line in the sand for us. And that's what we're willing to accept as a risk. And that's what we're watching. So that one would have been our first failure of the group. However, we did have one that was also quite interesting. And there were two of them, actually. I'll bring this next one up and leave it to our old friend, Mr. 382. Hold on, we'll get it up here. We'll be able to see it. There's the 382 in the crude oil. As you can see here, we made a lower low here, so the 382 had to be changed. And that took it in right at the high of the day. And not only that, but this is a very long-term chart. It's a four-hour chart, so it stayed there, folks, for almost a whole day. So that was telling you there was a lot of resistance. And, of course, now it's broken down a couple of bucks from that level. But this one was actually working pretty good. They don't all work, as I mentioned before, that some of them do, and some of them don't. So let's move on to take a look at a few of these other charts that we're looking at. No guests today, boys and girls. It's just me here in the old little town of Kingston on Thames, and I will be with you here Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. I will not be with you, but I'll be back Monday. And I believe we have a full schedule next week. We've got Mr. Joey D. DiNapoli is going to be on for a full hour next week on Wednesday. So mark your calendar there. He's got a lot of stuff to talk about. And we're going to give him the whole amount of time because we don't get to chat with him very often. And he's always got some nice things. Now we're going to take a look here since we're here in the UK. We want to take a look here at the German DAX. I'll get this up here. Now this is an hourly chart. Again, we go back to our old favorite, AB equals CD. And we're going to bring it up here so you can take a look at it. And as you can see, we have an ABCD. We went slightly above it. We're trading slightly above it now, but it's not enough to damage the ABCD pattern. It's got to go, well, no, not very much at all. Because from 43, that's only a 17 point move in the difference. So you'd have to be able to give it a little bit more time and price to give it above there. But if it gets above that 7650 level, then you would have to say that, yes, that one is not working. And you want to move on to something else. OK, the next chart we're going to look at is a whole lot easier. This is what everybody trades here. Nobody actually really trades the FTSE folks. It's all related to the old German DAX. Speckensydeutsch, as they say, means, do you speak German? OK, you can just see here we had another ABCD pattern. In fact, there's two of them. There's ABCD, and then we have another one that extends up into... ABCD, that is a... Someone called that a... Shucks, it's well, it's a three drive pattern, but I don't have some other. But also, that's a 135, too. You have a one, three, and five. The symmetry is relatively good. The ratios are OK, but we can't get above that level. If we get above that level, let's tell you that it's breaking out to the upside, and you don't want to have anything to do with it. So that's neither here nor there. If we get on here, we'll get back to some of these things. Another one that we've looked at that has been pretty good to us. Hold on, I've got two others to show you that I think are important, and we've got one that we want to be able to explain, because it's had a heck of a move, and that's the Australian dollar. Let's get this up here in the screen here. You'll see change windows. I'm going to go here and then go live. Make sure we can see the gold. Hold on one second, boys and girls. I need to get a little bit of water. I'm a tiny bit dehydrated. By the way, if you don't know this, jet lag is caused by dehydration. If you drink enough water, you're probably not going to get jet lag, but jet lag is a mystery, so I don't really know that it's going. We got a caller coming in. Mr. Zee from Philly. John, are you there? Bless you, Larry, for calling it, or excuse me, doing the show from London. This technology deal is just fabulous. You know, John, I figured it out today for the first time. These computers are here to stay. I said, bye, Golly. I'm going to have to learn. Yes, say hallelujah. That's all I can say, sir. What's up, buddy? What can I help you with? I need your help, please, if we could. I'm going to follow up the New Crop, Kansas City Wheat Daily Futures Daily charts. The ticker symbol on that, I believe, for most people is KEN2. Larry, I wanted to have you look at that chart, your Pezevento Patterns assessment, and your projection tools, and share with us in picture form if you can, in fact, this low, just above $10 that occurred last week in those July, Kansas City futures holds if we can project up to $12.50, and if so, how much higher? John, stay with us, please. We'll be right back. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks, and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman and your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know, and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. tfnn.com Educating investors. The TAS Profile Scanner is the premier market profile-based scanner. Powered by its acclaimed TAS proprietary algorithms, this feature-rich scanner instantly filters over 2,500-plus global financial markets, such as stocks, ETFs, commodities, futures, and forex. 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And his name was No Can Do, because I can tell you that I cannot do that chart on Kansas City wheat because I don't look at Kansas City wheat, so I know Can Do, so I can't put up the chart. You can see what jet lag is really like now, John. I can put up the chart. Larry, that is just terrific. I made that up myself right off the spur of the – and I'm getting a very stern stare here from the misses here anyway. I will tell you, Larry, I, of course, over the years and, of course, I first met you via Tom O'Brien and the TFIN crew. I remember two years ago. 18 years ago, you bet. 2005. Anyway, so I have listened with great interest as you've effectively told your entire work-life history, you know, in various little tidbits. And I do wonder, back in that period of time, 76 to 82 when you were a broker at Drexel out there in Los Angeles, I do wonder how many times you told this story to prospects or clients and what their reaction was at that time. John, I don't know the number, but I'll tell you what, I'm still in contact with some of those people, so they did remember it. Unfortunately, we were long old and silvered during those wonder years and, of course, the prices never went below that time, so some of those people still have cougarans and maple leafs in their safety deposit box after all those years and that makes me feel pretty good. But, you know, basically the thing that I learned the most at Drexel and that is people are accustomed to losing money. They're accustomed to making money. The one thing they're not accustomed to is losing all their money. And they said to me, if you lose 25% of the money, then you'll be looking for a new job. And I said, thank you very much. I won't lose 25%, and that's kept me around for a bit, so that's pretty much it. But getting back to this week, John, it's pretty difficult. This is one that's been quite oversold, but these grain markets look extremely bullish, John, and they are coming into a growing season and I can say this from the bottom of my heart. This is the most important growing season in my trading history. That goes back seven decades, because if we have any type of crop problems, if you think $130 oil is expensive, get ready for $20 wheat, $20 beans, and $15 corn, because there's just not going to be enough to feed the world. And we have to have bumper crops from both South America and from the U.S. just to keep up with the demand that's out there. So if I do any short selling, and I did the last few days in the soybeans, but that's based on a shorter term chart, but longer term, my goodness, this thing does not look very bearish. In fact, it looks bullish. And boy, we have to have good crops. That's the bottom line. Yes. Much of what you just said, Larry, are thoughts that I harbor as well. As you and I have talked over the years, you and I are distinctly different types of traders, at least on the intermediate term. And there's, of course, there's nothing wrong with that whatsoever. But just to share with you and your audience, as far as trading wheat is concerned, of course, we know this. In the United States, there are three different classes of wheat that have futures contracts traded against it. By volume size, it's the Chicago wheat. That's the largest contract volume, followed by the Kansas City contract. And bringing up the rear is the Minneapolis wheat contract. But in terms of actual production of the commodity here in the U.S., the Kansas City futures represents by far the largest crop. The Minneapolis contract represents the second largest and that Chicago contract represents the smallest. I'm always looking to assess the intermediate term to limit my trading to the direction of the scenario that I speculate upon that will unfold. And that, hence, that leads me, at least in the past several months, to be trading exclusively the Kansas City contract. And I appreciate you look at the Chicago and not the Kansas City, so we won't deal with any specific questions here. But what I will tell you, I will just confirm the comment you made about the need for large crops, less food shortages in regard to this Kansas City contract. It's just the USDA, now that we're in April, now is the time that the USDA has begun publishing every Monday at 3 o'clock New York time crop condition reports. And you can see the Kansas City futures, excuse me, is up 30 or 40 cents intraday today. And that is on account of the crop report that came out at 3 yesterday, which showed that crop down in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, eastern Colorado is just really her rainfall, frankly, since last October. So adverse weather is already here and I'm personally crossing my fingers that Mother Nature brings some timely rains down there if it does not, we've got a kick in questions right now. So I am Sue, my friend, I am too. I just hope that it works out that we get enough food because boy, this is one thing that my, when I first started trading gold, the one person said the reason why gold was so important was because oil was indigestible. Well, if you think people get excited about $300 oil and $4,000 gold and they can't eat, there is no price because the demand is inelastic, they have to have it. So we really need this bumper cop. If we don't, we're in big trouble. Indeed. So I'm going to be trading the long side of this Kansas City July contract and we'll see how this unfolds. So Larry, always great to hear you, especially coming in from London. Yeah, you bet, John. Call in next week if you get a chance. I'll give you a flavor of cowboy country. Excellent. Bye now. All right. We'll be right back, folks. Mr. Zee from Philly, we'll be right back. Are you having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with? Become an Apex creditor in the trading markets and join the Tigers and Trading Room only at TFNN.com. The Tigers Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas. Join the Den and surround yourself with the sharpest minds in the trading world. Subscribers to the Tigers Den are also the first to have their questions answered live on air and can privately chat with our TFNN hosts live during their shows. Interact with other Tigers and Tigresses as they share trading ideas, news analysis, and discuss the market action all trading day. Subscribe to the Tigers Den risk-free with our 30-day money-back guarantee and become part of the TFNN trading community. TFNN Educating Investors. 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The art of timing the trade charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks, or even months searching to find. And right now, we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month. We are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money-back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting TFNN.com. Okay, boys and girls, getting back to accentuating the positive and desensitizing the negative. We're going to take a look at a trade that worked out pretty nicely. This is the gold market over the past several days. You can see the beautiful ABCD pattern up there at the top at the 786. 1955 goes about $0.90 above that and then drops almost $27 to complete your first prospered objective. You'll see on the downside the beautiful Gartley down there at the 1929 level. And then we rallied $30, one-half the harmonic up there, just absolutely setting up nicely. Like I said, sometimes they work, sometimes they don't. But we've had a question about the Australian dollar because we happen to be in that trade for quite some time. You'll give me a second here. I'll bring it up here so that we can see it without too much trouble. And I'm going to have to make a slight adjustment here to get it back up. And now we can go and bring this up. This is important to really go over your losing trades, folks, to see why they lost and how you handled it. This is the daily chart of the yen. Let's try it again, cowboy. The Australian dollar versus the U.S. dollars. You can see at this point right here we have a beautiful ABCD pattern. It's just as beautiful as you can possibly get. The market comes down and goes up and makes the final delay right here at the 1.618 expansion. And then it just stops flat and it's tracks for one, two, three, four, five, six days in a row without disturbing that 1.618. We were short that and we shorted it 40, 75, 75, 17. We had a buy stop at 75, 47 for a $300 loss. It was looking pretty good. Well, it wasn't looking pretty good. It didn't have a loss, but we were breaking even during that time. But, boy, last night, last night it came alive, folks. Let me give you an idea of what coming alive looks like in the foreign exchange markets. I'll put this up here. And it really had, I mean, it was making my limit-minder go crazy and get this up here. Oh, okay, just one second here. There we go. Now you can see it. There's where we were. You see, we went above. We were stopped out right there on this move right here. That was our original sale was right here. Had a small profit at one time. $200, nothing. And then our stop was right above that level, right here. We break above it and then we go south for about four hours, okay? We stop exactly at a 382 from this low right here, okay? This low right here was a 382 off of this low right here. And then bada-boom, bada-bing, bada-boom. The news came out. What it was, I don't know. But as you can see, we exploded all the way up here. This big move that you're seeing here, folks, you're not going to get a good feel on that run because there's people that are not going to stand in front of that. When it gets up here, you're going to be able to get some action going on. But during this time, people are flat-covering positions and new buying's coming in most probably. And then you have that big move. Now, the first thing I do when I see a move like that, I want to see, okay, what caused this and what did I miss? And so the first thing I would do would be to go to a longer term chart to see if there was anything there that said, well, you know, maybe you should have taken a look at this or maybe you shouldn't. So if we take a look at it, which we're going to right here, get this up, you're going to see the long-term, this is the weekly chart, and we went up and made that weekly level at 76.50. That's 150 pips higher from where we were looking to sell it, folks. Something's different in the Australian dollar. Maybe a rush is coming back and buying commodities from those folks, but hold on one second. That's not the point. The point is you can't stand in front of it. You can buy it if you have a good place to buy it, which I'd certainly be looking to do that. But once it gets above those numbers, above that D-point, my personal opinion is, you know, and I don't really care why I lose on some of these things. All I know is that it failed, and I know that the probability of winning on that pattern is more than it is losing, and that's all I need to know. It's really not much less than that. I mean, you've got to be able to do that to figure out how it's going to work because sometimes they work, sometimes they don't. I know the reason behind it, but I don't know how it works. Let me show you the reason. I talked about this before. I'm going to give it to you again just since we're good friends here, and you'll always learn something. At least we hope you do. This is how the cycles work. This is basically the fractals, how they work. You see there's a larger ABCDs. This is the red structure inside, the smaller ABCDs. Those are the blue structures. And what you're trying to do is to line those up so that when the prices come together and also coming together in time, you know that at that point, at the D point, is where you want to be dancing with the devil. And the devil could be the market or it could be an angel. You never know. But you want to be looking at that point right here. And once that happens, you've got to say, this is where I play because I don't know what goes on inside these markets, but all I do know is when they fail, I can't stand in front of it. And that's a key thing to really remember folks. It really is very important. We've got one other market here that is, just get it up here for one second here, that is really important. Well, they're all important. What am I talking about? But the ones you're not in are important because you're waiting to get in. Here's one that has been in the news every day and it will continue to be for a very, very long time. And we'll get it up and running now. It is the opposite of the gold. It is, of course, black gold crude. Hold on one second here. You can see here we had a 61% retracement here about eight, nine days ago up there at that 116, 117 level. We came all the way down. You'll notice we made lower lows yesterday right at the 78% level down there at 98 and change. We rallied up today to the 382 retracement up there at 105 and now we've broken $3 a barrel very, very quickly here. Again, showing the importance of the 382 picture. Here is the 382 picture before. Remember we broke down sharply from this high, rallied right up to the 382 and then continue down making a A, B, C, D down at this level right here. So what we're doing now, we get above this level. We get above 405, 105. We've got a chance for a larger A, B, C, D up here at the 78% level up here at 121. Now, people have asked me the question, is $130 a barrel going to be enough to stop this? Nobody knows, including me. All I'm doing is looking at the charts. I'm trying to find a pattern that I can find with some success to pay me money. And I don't care about the fundamentals. I care about the people that have to use oil and all that stuff, but there's nothing I can do about it other than care. So I'm looking at patterns that I can make a buck on and I don't need to listen to the news. I have to watch how the market responds to the news. That is a secret to trading and believe me, it's not a simple task. You've got to practice yourself to be able to do this. Okay, now I wanted to talk about one other market. I've got a break coming up and I've got a very important subject when we get back from the break. Hold on one second. We'll be right back, folks. Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area, including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa and Clearwater markets? Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area. Whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property, Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay Area to help buyers and sellers make most informed decisions across all price levels. 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The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, 4-Side Fund Services, LLC. Okay folks, I posted the chart of the September Treasury Bonds. Let's try that again, cowboy. It's the June Treasury Bond, the M contract. And as you can see here, we were looking for the 382, we patterned to come in around the 151-20 level. We got to 150-20 and it looked 150-02 just a few days ago. And it looked like it had a really good chance to get there. And of course, after that 6-day rally it just failed and it just started going lower, much like the T-notes. Folks, we have higher interest rates are coming our way. There's no question about it. And I wanted to bring a story to you that happened to me today. I was fortunate enough to spend some time with one of the really great traders of Europe. And we were able to chat and trade for several hours this morning. And of course the report came out this morning and in his office he has two screens, medium-sized, you know, little, they're desktop, they're not laptops, probably I'd say 24-inch screens. He has two of those and he has absolutely no news at all. I mean none at all. And I had the good fortune of training him 20 years ago and he has done a great job. But boy, he has learned how to not listen to the news at all and we saw the action of the news the market was very, very choppy, ran way up and then boomed down it went. And I said, how did you ever, you know, train yourself, you know, to not look at the news and stuff? He says, well, he said I had someone from Arizona teach me that. And then he reminded me that when he came over to visit me for a week that I also don't have anything about the news and he said it's not an easy task. He said when I got back, he said the only way I could stop looking at the screen was to do it in baby steps. In other words, I was watching it every minute, then I would only watch it for every five minutes, then every 10 minutes and now he said I can train myself every 15 minutes if I want to come back and look at it and if I get stopped out, my limit-minders will tell me and the beepers will go and I just got to train yourself to not look at it. But the main thing that you got to remember is when you're doing these trade strokes, the people that are larger than you on the other side of it, they don't care who you are or where you are or why you're doing this. They really don't care about it. So you're thinking that they do and they don't. But there's no extra information on that screen other than that chart and that will tell you more about that with you because it is very important that you don't have to watch the screens to see if these things work. Your breast trades are the ones that you're not watching and away they go. I remember very vividly in 1973, the first time I met was 72, the first I met Amos Hostetter. He had a wicker basket, much like I did at home, one for the border trade, one for the Merc and his girl, he had a secretary that posted on the screen that time so he could see the price action and he had a whole bunch of positions on and one of them was some New York market, I forget, was orange juice or cocoa, sugar, something like that and it was really hurting him but he hadn't been stopped out or anything like that and Jay asked him, he said Amos, he says, why do you do this? And he said, well, he said if I trade pork bellies it keeps my mind off the other positions and so when I need to look at it, he said I'll go to the Reuter machine and see where the prices are and that's really all I need to know. This was before we had prices like we have now folks, we didn't have this stuff, we had a bunker rainbow boards and stuff if you were big enough to have that but other than that you had to use the old ticker tape and a lot of difference now. But look at this bond chart folks, we're trading at 146.14, that shatters the low of eight years ago that everybody thought was going to hold including me, I really assumed that we were going to get up to that 382 at 151 18 and we didn't even come close to it. So that tells you how weak that market is, maybe it'll turn right now here on a dime but I wouldn't bet any dineros on it or do cuts or anything because it looks like it wants to go lower, interest rates are going higher and the question is why don't stocks react? Well maybe stocks will react later, maybe it doesn't make any difference because we've seen bonds and stocks going up in direction before so if you're trading stocks trade the stocks, if you're trading the bonds, trade the bonds, don't start thinking about interactive markets it's going to drive you nuts and you know driving nuts is not very fun, a lot of times because you can't afford the gas so just remember that. Just trade what you see with anything else, how to use that as a motto, what the heck? I like Tom, I like Tom Hougard's model, it's not what you think it's how you think and that's how it's important to remember that it's how the markets react to the news and when you see that, that gives you an idea of where you really are and that's what's really important at least from the trading purposes I can't be more emphatic than that as we look at some of these things I want to show you one other market that we should be watching here let's get it up here to look at it because it's a coffee market I wanted to give you just a little heads up on this because this was one of the trades that we were recommending here on Sunday on the coffee remember I haven't traded coffee in well over, it's been coffee, I traded cocoa once in sandwich and we had this really nice 3-8-2 pattern here, that completed on Friday folks while we were there and that completed at the 130, excuse me 230 level and the market closed a little bit below that and then on Sunday night the market actually backed off about 2.5 cents so we were up about $300 on this and then of course later in the day all the markets were exploding to the upside this market went a little bit higher but our original risk on that was only 2 cents and when you make 3 the worst thing that should happen to you on that would be in a break-even trade so you count that as a break-even trade market's trading just a tiny bit higher than where we are on this chart right here but that would be out with a break-even trade stop and think folks if you're risking $250 you don't want to give it all back as now you've had $1,000 move that $750 was actually in your account by looking at those little numbers that flash up on your laptop or your desktop but when that goes away it's your own money and that means you had gone from a $1,750 profit to $1,000 loss that's not good money management folks the worst could happen and that was the best thing in this case is to be out at break-even if the market doesn't give you any chance to get out break-even you're going to get stopped out anymore you can see what's happened I just checked the price of natural gas during the break it hit $620 folks we were out of that at $593 that's $1,700 let's try that again that's $2,300 if you were following it or weren't paying attention you would have lost by $2,300 now how does that make you feel not very good buckaroos not very good so remind ourselves that we have to be be very very careful and always be alert in the old adage of the old commodity trader see more lefkowitz and that is always be ready we'll be right back 877-927-6648 sharpening your skills is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at TFNN you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's youtube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8 am to 4 pm eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has 8 different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's youtube channel you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right? 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