 Right, let's let's kick things off here So I have the control over here in the UK To all our Canadian audience who may not be familiar with me. My name is Jasper Lawlor one of the market analysts over here in London Colin now I'm going to be discussing the various factors going on in the market but technology-wise it's just a little easier for me to be Directing the kind of proceedings in terms of how the charts move around so Colin you'll have to bear with me in terms of when you're describing your trend lines or however this goes So it's been an interesting week so far in this Correction has finally taken place a little bit in the inequity markets after This massive run that we had since since the first big correction. It's ended mid-October Colin what are you putting this correction down to I think there's two things that said that's basically impacting the market here The first one is general exhaustion We've seen markets go basically straight up for six weeks solid and and they're just exhausted here And they're due for a rest and this is coming in at a time when the news flow is drying up We're getting close to the end of the year. There's not as much economic news We're past the end of earnings season so there's not much corporate news We're heading into the the two-week hole they slow down Coming up after the end of next week. So what these we're just to the point where there's nothing really to push them farther So they're starting to come back under their own weight and and there were two things That that in particular struck me. I'll talk about the US first and then I'll go to the deck So one of the excuses that we're seeing coming down is the the collapse in crude oil prices and what this has done For the energy stocks and the energy sector dragging things down And we haven't seen the positive impact of lower oil prices work their way through yet People are more worried about crude oil particularly as it's falling in and testing $60 today But the other part is and maybe we could go to first is jasper Could you bring up the the Germany 30 chart? Yeah, of course Was I was sitting here looking at the Dax last Friday and seeing it at all-time highs and Everything you've been hearing about the German economy is that it's been in trouble And it's it's it's rolling over and because Germany's doing badly the ECB's got to bring a new stimulus Something doesn't jive. It's like even if you do bring new stimulus So it wasn't all adding up and if you look here, you now have as Jazz which was you've now got a big double top in the in the Germany 30 You've got one back in June which was actually a triple top and now you've got where jasper's put the arrows here another significant top For the Dax and this one is is more of a breakdown on the basis that the That the fundamentals are weak that the European economy is rolling over and the Dax is coming down basically as it should be Did you want to add to that jasper? Yeah, and maybe you want to talk about the auction this morning? Yeah, it is it is a bit of a laugh when you see Markets making your all-time highs yet. There's talk of borderline deflation and contracting economy It certainly doesn't quite add up and I suppose the only reason it does add up is that the markets weren't really trading off the Fundamental basis of the economy. It was just purely a play on stock markets being one of the primary beneficiaries of potential QE from the ECB and Even though it didn't make a lot of sense I mean, what was your feeling when you know when we sort of there was a few levels on the way up which you Sort of I certainly personally sort of felt could have you know This this area was almost a sort of topping formation and would have made sense for things to roll over But when you saw things break up here again I think there was just some sort of jaw-boating by Mario Draghi saying that, you know quantitative easing was imminent. What is your feeling at this point? Even though, you know fundamentally It doesn't make sense as far as the economy. Do you still try and ride this trend higher or do you wait for the top? How are you? How are you looking at this as this was progressing? I think this whole thing has been liquidity driven primarily Both especially the last six weeks because remember this whole thing started when the when the US One of the Fed governors came out and said oh, maybe we won't in QE after all because the the markets were crashing and they were down 10% and Yeah, right about there and that that says to me and in hindsight We clear that was the punch protection team stepping in and we know people debate on whether or not it is this So let's see a Fed member comes out and nobody had ever talked about any QE until the market went down 10% Then it has a massive rebound and oh, well, maybe we'll end it after It's pretty one of the most blatant Appearances of the of the PPT. I've never seen it was it's so painfully obvious But anyways, you've got to now you've got the you you've got the the dank screaming I hired a new all-time highs on on supposedly more QE coming from the ECB and you've got the Now screaming to new all-time highs even though the QE three is over and they're talking about raising interest rates So Something's got to give one of them one side is right and one side is wrong And you can't have both of them and new all-time highs at the same time in that kind of environment So I think what we're seeing now is that things are starting to crack and things are starting to crumble and and And it'll be interesting to see what happens next month at the ECB meeting particularly in in light of The LTR O's this morning were as you had said in line with expectations but I think they're still the original program was supposed to be four hundred billion it was two hundred and change and Just a little bit of change so they only they only did about half of what they were hoping to do over over the two tranches and And and you got to wonder the ECB balance sheet Which I keep an eye on every week. It's is only a marginally off of its lows in in September So it's it's you know how did is the question going into next year is are they going to get serious or not? Yeah, absolutely. I mean this did feel like a bit of a turning point this this last meeting where Draghi's been fairly successful in the last few meetings of doing next to nothing but really talking about all the possibilities and The market just didn't quite buy it this time You saw that initial I think that was the moment the DAX made its peak was just prior to the ECB meeting was sort of this and And then just right on that same day just the market, you know socks came right off just really not believing that The QE is well obviously disappointed that QE didn't take place in that particular meeting or at least it wasn't well signposted That it would start next year And just you know some definite question going on that it will ever take place This this little rally. I mean it's no coincidence came right up to the high just pushed a little bit higher And then we just got they kind of double top formation What are you technically at the moment Colin looking at this double top? We saw a bit of a move down sort of hovering around the sort of neckline type area here going to retest again You see there's a slight chance of this one failing. What do you what do you think here? It's looking to me like it's ready to fail and and even I was looking at the Dow this morning And it kind of popped back up to ten six and and it was starting to fail as well So when you start seeing these these support lines get broken and then come in as resistance is is clearly bearish For a bearish signal for the for the markets and even though down here at the bottom you've got an acceleration in the RSI that's just that a trading bounce as long as that stays below 50 and And so as you start seeing the lower loads and even the rebounds get contained by previous support levels That's generally speaking a sign that we're into into a correction and we haven't really corrected very much We've still got some some downside just to the like the 23 percent retracement so or the or or you know 50-day moving averages or things where you often see Corrections go to first. There's still quite a bit of downside before you reach those kind of points Yeah, I mean it's been interesting to compare the Germany 30 with the UK 100 which saw a sort of similar Formation and this one's just completely tanked down to the 50% Retracement obviously having not even made new all-time highs not even the highs from from September You know the UK is looking a lot weaker here, and I guess that maybe does relate slightly to this whole oil scenario Colin where in the UK we do have Some oil production still taking place. So we're not a total beneficiary of lower oil prices as an economy and We do obviously have some major oil companies on the on the 50 100 so absolutely The footsies one of the more Higher-weighted for energy indices out there and probably of the big indices probably the one that's the biggest It'd be like the UK index and they like the canada and Norway and Russia indices obviously would be would be next in terms of their Oil exposure, but particularly to to big caps as a percentage I think you'd be looking at the UK even in the US There's a number obviously a number of big big big oil companies in there, but as a percentage of the overall index They're not actually that big even at the peak. I think I think oil topped out. It's something around 14% of the S&P Whereas when you look at like a health care or attack or financials top out above 20 Yeah, yeah, absolutely. So even if it and if it cut when with it coming back down, maybe it ends up around 8 to 10% of the S&P. It's not It's not it's not one of the big sectors It's it's still one of the smaller sectors in the in the US index Relative to to what it is in in some of the other indices and in candidates 20% or more Yeah, yeah It's funny how they you always got to be careful when you when you are looking at markets in general when you're working with the indices Obviously when you're looking at the trend, you know, you've just got to go off that but we did have an example where The FTSE has had a bit of a rejigging in the last month and Petrofac Came out and we've got a few house builders come in. So it's a sort of slight rejigging of the sectors So you've got to be aware of this indices type effect when you are looking at The markets in general if the FTSE had remained it same it it could be even worse right now I Yes, absolutely. That's why you want to keep an eye on the on the weightings of all the indices that you're trading Because sectors are important Taking a look at this just sort of technically for it for a minute when you're you look at this kind This is one of those kind of more difficult Trading scenarios isn't it where you know, this is the kind of beautiful time obviously isn't it when you just see It's just small corrections trend higher. You know which way the market's going Well, you've got a good sense that it's going higher and it's just a matter of how how big the correction is Theoretically you can buy it at any point in this this trend as long as you've got the trend up You know, you can get the trade right and timing doesn't have to be so expert But when you get a big move down like this Do you do you consider this a time to be looking for pullbacks to sell or are you looking at kind of a bigger picture here? You know looking at a sort of weekly chart and Just thinking about kind of equity sentiment in general because it's been a you know mugs game for the last few years Isn't it trying to pick up in stocks? You know, you look at a large weekly candle like that. Do you Is that reason that looks to me like a Yeah, that looks to me like a pretty decisive turn downward and of course a failure is a lower high which the lower high I definitely think is due to oil because we We saw the same thing in in some of the resource other resource indices like Canada and Australia Another is when we had this rebound all the resource had more heavily weighted to resource indices failed at a lower high But that's a huge engulfing bearish weekly engulfing candle there You can't ignore that and and at this point you've got to be thinking That people would be fading into lower highs that even if you do get it down You'd be looking at people would be thinking more sell the rally than buy the dip at this At this point in time and this could continue for a few weeks until you get some kind of washer But if you look at that broader channel there with with this kind of a technical breakdown You could over over a few weeks see a retest of that lower boundary Yeah, it does sort of certainly look like that doesn't it looks like and even if just following these moving averages I don't know what moving averages you typically like to look at calling I don't see your chart forums because of the nature of the way the platform spits up that You can even sort of see here that you know, it's been even though it's within this Rider range it was sort of following the the averages higher and the trend was but it just wasn't quite Making the new highs it was just making that the higher lows and the range was contracting into essentially a sort of triangle And it broke down big there and this is almost like a retest of that rising Triangle beneath trend line. I don't think there is a perfect trend line We can draw there, but you know, it's the kind of overall pattern and so it's sort of you Sort of looks like that would be stuck number one and you know, you could even be moving down here I mean, we don't have possible one stage of easing going on in the UK or doesn't look like it's going to be coming anytime soon So what is there in the UK to hold things up? Maybe the ECB, but we're certainly not as big a benefit for issues as they are in Europe That's right. And actually while you're talking about the central bank something I thought that was interesting this morning was the UK coming out and talking about switching from monthly meetings to Eight meetings a year and what intrigued me about that is that here in North America The the eight meetings a year is standard both the Fed and the the Bank of Canada meet it once every six weeks So I'm one and I'm curious about what you guys were thinking over there Yeah, I mean, it's it's been a sort of simultaneous plan from the ECB planning on doing the same and now the Bank of England's following suit cynically you just say that they're you know, they want to work a bit less but I suppose is Remove a bit of volatility surrounding the meetings because particularly with the ECB every single meeting There's expectations that they're going to do something. I suppose if you spread it out a bit You know, you're theoretically Reducing the kind of volatility around it and putting less emphasis on the the central bank Even though in these times at zero interest rates, obviously the emphasis is always going to be there But with the with the Bank of England, they're putting the minutes out at the same day as the they released the The results as well. So, you know, you haven't got that kind of bi-weekly effect anymore It's not going to be every month. It's not going to be every, you know We have what you have the the results of the rate hike or rate cut or keeping the same as it has been for the last five Years and then two weeks later the minutes. So we're going to be in one happening every six weeks, essentially So I'm going to be hearing a bit less from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank next year Just all there. Yeah, just all their jaw-boning in between Interesting, I think because of that also you may get more bang out of every meeting like if you're seeing there every month Oh, they haven't done anything again and again and again I think that way by cutting a few less meetings that that you may get more of a focus on each one and that and that perhaps Especially with the ECB you may see more pressure on them to actually do something at it at a meeting since they're not so often It could be it'll be quite interesting to see what comes of all that. Yeah, maybe you're moving news trading becomes a bit more of a sort of Bible technique if we're looking for you know, if we're trading the euro Around these ECB meetings or the sterling around these meetings, you know If we get a few more pips gained in and around the announcements then you know just any kind of You know for those of you who've tried trading the news results What you'll often see is just the price far off in one direction Often with a sort of gap in between just because of the nature of the way the market works You know, you've got Market makers out there who have a certain decision about where they want to price the market a bidden and ask Before they result after the result they're priced in the market somewhere different and there's nothing that happens in between So you get a big gap It's very difficult to trade that but if there is going to be an extra number of pips After that gaps takes place because of the sort of extra emphasis and importance of the the meeting because they've happened less often Might make the technique a bit easier to pull off. Do you ever try anything along those lines? Not with trading no, but I there's certainly no doubt that with the Particularly around the around the Fed meetings even more than the Bank of Canada because they haven't done anything in four years But every Fed meeting gets a lot of attention here both before and afterwards no question about it So I guess well when we're talking about the sort of Fed and things it's been interesting to look at a gold You know is looking pretty bad at one point calling when we we had this decline through this longtime support of 1180 and To myself to my credit I put out a video saying that you know, this is the beginning of the end We've broken through we're looking at sort of sub one thousand dollar gold Well, it's not quite been the case yet still could be but Almost a bit of a shakeout beneath that 180. Well, what are you making of it? Yeah, I think we had a pretty good wash out there I think what happened was that was the surprise in which what changed things was that the The Indian Indian Indian dropping their import quotas Just in time for wedding season. I think that's what's turned that would turn it around in the short term But you're still struggling here and and the reality is is the gold is it goes back to the ECB again and Over the last five years, which I know we don't have a turn this I'll just explain quickly over the last five years gold has gone up with the EC balance sheet And it's gone down with the BCB balance sheet So when the the ECB was flooding the system with money a few years back to deal with Greece and everything It totally took off and then and so did gold and then the last couple of years The reason why golds when coming down people thought, you know, I originally thought and I was wrong I thought gold would above go above 2000 when the Fed brought in QE3 Well, how instead it came down to to under 1200 and what happened was that that golds when following the the Euro balance sheet And what's the Euro balance sheet shrank by a trillion euros over the last two years as banks paid off all the first round of? LTRO loans, so now we're at a turning point and so we've gotten this nice bump from India and And and perhaps gold got oversold and we've had some short covering and people getting squeezed out of positions But at some point that's going to run out and then if we go back to the ECB and we have to see well for the last six months the ECB has been talking about Rebuilding its balance sheet and putting that trillion euros back in they haven't done it even the first LTRO watch never really did much for its its balance sheet because banks were still paying repaying off the old ones and And so we're at a point where we're only 30 40 billion up off the low and And with they've still got a long way to go and and today's auction will help a little bit But but not a huge amount and so the the question is How are they going to step up next year to really get it going and if they really get Acid buying going and get serious about Reinflating their balance sheet that would be good for gold if it doesn't and and they stole again We could see gold stole at one of these levels and roll back down again So it depends on a line. I think is really hanging at the gold markets really hanging on the ECB at this point Yeah, yeah Yeah, I guess in terms of it sort of you know, it's a kind of longer term range. You can see that It's you know, like you said, we had this massive period of expansion Contraction but then there's been neither or and so we've been stuck in this sideways range and Even though it did break out here that wasn't quite the fundamental catalyst for it to actually happen And we obviously people you know, you look at gold Making that multi-year low and then you look at the DAX making its all-time highs German buns at record lows that clearly the the bed out there is that the ECB is going to do something But the matter of the fact is they haven't actually done it yet. So there's only so far it can go Yeah, the one thing I do think is I think we're in for increased turmoil in Europe next year And that may be the catalyst that finally forces them back to do something just like it did in in 2011 when when the crisis really hit Mike I've been looking at it next year. Yeah, I Suspected it's it is I was going to get in and and shake things up which in some ways Is it concerning in some ways? It would be helpful because the last two years I think they've just kind of taken advantage of the low to then and frittered their time away I don't think they've done enough on either side that the political side or the central bank side to really deal with the Problems that were at there. I think they've they've kind of taken this is that as a Oh great things settled down I guess we've done enough when really they had and things settled down and they had the two-year honeymoon that they as far as I'm concerned They've frittered away. So maybe they need a kick from a kick from something whether it's the potential Greek elections from the UK elections from from something else some Recession in Germany or whatever heads and I think several things could hit next year It could be all of them or none of them who knows but the point is I think it'll finally hopefully kick them into gear to make them Do something Well, I guess that is the ultimate counter argument from that you hear a lot from Germany Is that if the ECB do go ahead and do some kind of QE then? Of course, you know, we can expect good things in equity markets but in terms of the actual European economy it does just allow the status quo to continue without any structural reforms because the government's need and bother because borrowing rates are still going to be so low as bonds get from prices get pushed further higher and You know the impetus is going to be taken away from them You know they you know the I've literally heard German ministers say that they need to feel a bit of pain To actually feel the need to do something to change Yes, and we've started to see treasury yields creep higher I mean greases took off and everybody else is starting to creep up But not enough yet to to get the politicians attention, but it's in early. That's what the you're right That's what they need is something is the kind of thing like like rising treasury yields to make them actually Actually do what they need to do How you pulled up the old a euro chart here Colin, you know, whatever charts you want to look at obviously Sure, this is good after this. Let's do crude, but let's do a euro dollar first So this is interesting and gold looks the same kind of way and that You know, we've been in the short-term downtrend and trying to break out of it Today I see we guys with they why ran right into a wall at 125 even yeah And slumps back a little bit. It is trying to bust this downtrend So, I mean, I think this is a sign that that people that the that the old heroes were less than people thought and That for how I don't know. I guess you could go one of two as you can either say it was enough As you were saying I believe earlier it was enough to that perhaps the ECB doesn't have to move right away in January and they can figure out what they're Going to do and and buy them some time or the other side was it's just so short of The the the 400 billion original target is that did that clearly the the they're not as similar to this people had thought So you could read it both ways. Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. It sort of seems like the, you know Quonset of easing still seems the sort of assumption of most but it's just a matter of timing and so You know, if that timing gets pushed out a bit to Maybe later in the first quarter or even past that then you've got to believe those rock You know, even though that it looks like it's coming It's not actually come yet and that maybe would give the euro a bit of a room for Maneuver hire, but for now, we'll be back to the top of that channel anyway Right, right exactly. Probably like you said, probably not much beyond that just because still I mean the trend is The stent trend is still down below this sort of 50 to five day and they and still fundamentally Comparably between Europe and the US, you know, US you've got multi-year highs in monthly job creation Europe. You've got record low Employment in the likes of Italy, so it's that massive disparity. I mean, it's how far the euro really go higher Yeah, and I'm looking at the on the euro I keep a look at the RSI which you've got down at the bottom there and it keeps failing at 50 So you really if you're you can't you any rally you see is a bear market rally until you see that really get through 50 for real Otherwise you've got to assume that these are just dead cat. These are just bounces along the way Yeah, yeah Yeah, I like I don't know how you do it and They're like on you obviously mentioned the key the 50 is that the most important obviously so you can broadly say that while the RSI is under 50 the trend is down while above It's above but then you can also use the I haven't actually got it drawn in on this chart for whatever reason, but I'll do a little bit with these lines are looking a bit But you can use the 40 and the 60 levels as well sometimes offer sure bit of sort of interim support And so what there is I forget the name of the analyst you probably know Colin you did the CMT But they're having the the bull and the bear zones within the RSI So it can be yeah The RSI can be a sort of leading indicator from when you for example go from extreme oversold area like this You can get up to just the 30 zone that can be an area to sell But then you also come up to the 40, you know that could act as some resistance And you see a corresponding with the price coming off there Then finally it came up to the 50 level and that is then where eventually just wasn't able to go higher and that The downturn resumes If you couldn't you have to see since I'm going to move up to 60 baps And then a bounce down to 50 and then it held above 50 that will sometimes correspond with a change in the direction of the trend Yes, if you see support on the RSI, which has come up to about 35 if you see that start to hold 40 is Encouraging for an upturn as well And you may see that before you see the break of 50 either one would be would be bullish technically Andrew Cardwell, that's the one for any of those for those of you Interested in we'll have your collection of technical analysis textbooks that you're building up that that's that's one to check out So, okay, so you mentioned what do you do WTI? Yeah. Yeah, well, it's Down in some new five-year lows today. This is the kind of bigger picture There the weekly chart as you can see it pretty much a straight line down That has totally totally broken down. That's a massive Massive trend line. It's taken there the long-term support Lowest levels in the decade and today for the second time. It's testing 60 and and so for a 60 is held It's bounced off of it twice this week. Yeah, the question is how long did the less of the bounces? Haven't been very Enthusiastic and they keep peaking at lower highs and maybe it gets washed out for the short term But I still think this downtrend intact you can see it getting pretty oversold down on the bottom there But but as we saw with the yen and looking at it the other way things can get oversold and stay oversold for quite a while Yeah, so I think you might get the odd trading bounce here, but I don't think they're going to get very far and The next measure with support was around 56 and a quarter, but I have a gut feeling I think you're going to see a test 50 before this is all said and done Mm-hmm. Yeah, I mean that's a psychological thing and I think you're gonna need it's not going to end until you get some kind of real real capitulation and and real washout and And something that really freaks people out and gets their attention and it could be that thing might be 50 is a possibility Yeah, I'm I sort of thought it was interesting when we had the the OPEC meeting and There's all the sort of talk before and after and it did seem like there was almost a bit of a coordinated message Amongst a lot of these oil ministers at the time I think a bit post the meeting The it was about $70 a barrel and a lot of the ministers came out and said we think it's probably dropping down to 60 But that's where the market should settle and so that was a sort of convenient $10 below the current price level And you sort of think well, maybe they're you know They're trying to be a bit hopeful there, but they sort of think perhaps it can actually go to 50 So looking at those sort of $10 increments you sort of think just on Just on that not on that little theory alone sort of 50 somehow makes somehow makes some kind of sense and Sort of technically we can say that you know 50 does obviously make sense here Is the where we have this kind of basing after that massive correction in 2008? We sort of had the breakout there the touch back on 50 and then We saw most of low back then around 35 You'll wait low that one 35 11 35 and change. Yeah Yeah, so I guess that's that's a distinct possibility 35. Do you think Colin or 50s gonna well? I think 50 because I'm Yeah, I think the 2008 Probably was more of an overshoot to the downside because you had the financial crisis in a recession Where this time you've got it happening in? At least in the United States in the UK reasonably robust economic times Yeah, so I don't think you'll see necessarily 35 again, but you can't rule out 50 Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, the reason I had these little highlights on here was just a good example of sort of You know don't don't fight the trend because we had these little sort of engulfing patterns But when the trend is this deeply down you need a bit more confirmation It should be the way I look at it is the first sign as some strengths coming back into the market But it's not the actual final trigger to get long at least on any kind of sustained basis, you know Maybe for you know, if you're going very short-term trading you look at that engulfing candle You think maybe a couple of hours the next day you might get some Further move higher, but any long-term move, you know that in this pattern in itself Even quite a big one like that coming off what I had is quite a long-term support Doesn't necessarily work as we're saying Yes, and the other thing I Think it's important for us to to think about is how long could these prices stay down? I don't think you're looking at a V bottom here because you're coming out of a This is the price being driven by a price war and by a war among the suppliers Even if well, you you may get these trading balances But I don't think you're going to see it come roaring back above a hundred bucks anytime soon either the the Russians were out this morning With their interest rate increase and saying basically they think the oil could stick could average around 80 for the next three years So I think we as traders need to start to think about as we move into next year What does it mean to be in the lower oil price environment because we haven't been in the lower oil price environment for a long time? Yeah, yeah, and so do you buy into the sort of general theory that it is a Boon for the consumer. We obviously saw retail sales a bit better than expected released today Is that the first yeah, and that this is starting to take effect? Absolutely, and I think it's taken some time and it always does to to work its way back through to the broader economy But I do think you'll start to see it eventually prices will start to come down We're getting back close to a dollar a liter here finally, which was Which is a pretty substantial drop. I mean we've been running it buck 30 for quite a long time And and so some of the prices are starting to come down And as we start to see that work its way into a system more money back into consumers pockets I do think that that's a positive for the economy in the longer term and actually also for for stock markets in the longer term as well But it's right now. I think what you're looking at you're in a period of short-term shorter term volatility But but eventually this as the oil price takes down An oil price cut or decline can do the same kind of thing as a as an interest rate cut because it does It does lower people's costs Yeah, I think the the UK economy would be in a major boom if we had those kind of oil prices No, we're still looking at sort of I think it's been averaging about a pound 25 Per liter, but we're down actually now a decent amount. I think it's I saw one for 112 per liter. So still yeah, so we're way above Canada, but that you know, that's taxes Yeah on that What you mentioned dolly-yen should we have a quick look at that because that's obviously been seeing a bit of a strong pullback Yes, absolutely So first of all, here's an example of how something can get way overbought and stay overbought You just because you and it's important for a service traders The signal is not when you go overbought the signals when you roll back down and similarly when you're oversold It's not going under. It's when you roll back up because the markets can stay overextended for a lot longer than you think Yeah, absolutely. That's an interesting little triple top, too, but In terms of the RSI something that yeah, yeah, yeah It does seem to be so it'll be interesting, you know using the RSI So we're seeing that kind of bounce just before the 50 level here And once it does get back up into this kind of 70 touch vicinity. Do we see this? Actors of support maybe a bit above For those of you don't use RSI can't be an interesting one because it does it almost acts a bit like an extra Price so maybe maybe moving into that area. That'd be a key Yeah, I think if you if you look back at October Jasper The the previous one where it broke down and you saw it break and then and then the retest and then it and then it dropped And you that pretty much that failed retest there that failure to get back above 70 Pretty much lined up when the price really did start to fall off. Yeah pretty much bang on Yeah, I mean, you know so I'll open the back if you did manage to just sell the price down at 110 But you know technically yeah, that was the point in which it rolled over wasn't it? I mean this okay This was the high but this is the point in which the high was you know We didn't see a new high and we saw that confirmation candlestick there sort of dark cloud cover and it did correspond with this touching and failure of the the overbought level in the RSI and then yeah, we came down to the older Moving average. Yeah, and then when we came down you had the RSI bottom out around 40 which said your bull trend was still intact. You didn't go oversold Yeah, well, we'll be watching for as not only do we watch the price here But we watch the RSI did it did it get back up above 70 does it fail? And then when it rolls down does a roll under 50 to confirm a downtrend does it take out 40 and so on yeah Yeah, the RSI is an incredibly powerful tool for trading when you You know so You know just out of interest when you're when you're sort of timing your You know your your you know your timing your sort of entries in the market You know say we say we're looking at this benefit of hindsight. Obviously, we've got this kind of double top Maybe formation here with this RSI support Are you You know you sort of save so we break down through here. We still a little break down. Do you? This is not maybe the best example of it actually but When you see the price break down from an area that you can think significant area support say say around this sort of 108 type level And then you see a retest do you do you know do you a proponent of using the price level itself and placing the order around there or you more proponent of waiting for some sort of confirmation through an indicator Rolling over like a like a stochastic or something or a candlestick pattern confirmation You know, it's kind of the pro and corner ways and I have this discussion a lot is well Obviously if you get that confirmation in this case, it's a lower price It's not as good to sell at but you have a bit more information that actually the trend may continue Obviously the counter counter argument is that you know if you just trade it off the price alone You probably would have to get a better entry, but just maybe slightly less sure that the trend is going to yes Yeah, I usually that's what stop losses are important because if you go in the more you're right I mean the more indicators you have that come together the higher your confidence level But you have to give something up for to to get all that that level of confidence, right? So you may go in earlier But if you go in earlier you have to be in with hard stops and be prepared to to go if it doesn't work out for you Yeah, yeah, it doesn't come together and normally because I mean there's three times to answer a trade If you're looking at a pattern one is anticipation that the pattern will go your way One is on the breakout and one is on the retest So the more conservative people will wait for the retest but give up a little bit of their upside And the more aggressive people will try and capture the upside but take on a little bit of risk And so what's important is if you're going to go earlier is to have a plan in case it doesn't go your way And to have a stop loss in there. That's the that's the key thing yeah, yeah, and one of the most annoying things of a trading pattern is obviously the false breakout and It certainly happened to me a few times where you you know, you're feeling fairly determined about a pattern You either you trade the breakout you get sort of three false breaks You think and then that final one when you capitulate and think okay, that's it. I'm done with this trade That's the one where it does break out. So it's this The psychology yes, indeed never fails Okay, well we're doing pretty how we looking at Now I was just gonna say how we looking at timing wise column. What is this space to wrap up? Is it was it? So was it We usually go about 45 minutes So I was going to say we're probably the point where it's a good time to open the floor to questions So I just think I hear on the john the yen What we want to watch for is with the yen and keep an eye on gold too Is that the other thing we're finding now that we're starting to see volatility come back Some of the complacency may start to go away You could start to see more interest coming back into gold back into yen Then then we've seen more recently So keep an eye on that as as we do get more risk and more volatility And if if political risk starts to come back again Then you could start to see gold and and yen get more active on that As well So I'm pretty much I'm good here if there was anything you wanted to mention Jasper before we open the photo questions No, no, um, well, I think I'm Yeah, I'm okay So do do any of you chaps out there have chaps and chapses have any questions for for colin i About the kind of things we've been discussing or if you have a completely different market that you're trading Obviously throw that out there as well Okay, so I don't if you see these Do you see the q&a as well colin? Yes, I'm looking at the question here. So I'll read it. Okay Hello question previous germany 30 trends have been signaled by a one-day hammer tick on Such as on october 16 or september 19 with uk 100 and us 30 corresponding Is this a technical you would look for to confirm a downward reversal? Thanks Yes, I keep an eye on I'd look for markets and I look for confirmations and I look whether or not it makes sense So uh over here usually when we uh when we're looking at breakouts by the dow You're looking at uh industrials. You're looking at the transports for confirmation and or the dow Transports and industrials to confirm each other now. We unfortunately don't have the transports on here, but you can usually find it on On some of the the the news sites like bloomberg and things like that or or stock charts the um So that's one that I look for so yeah I do I do think it's important that The indices confirm each other and when you get non confirmations Is it is quite significant such as we saw recently where last week where we had the uh the the germany trading up at new highs and And the footsie nowhere even closed and you get you do I do watch for Divergences and and non confirmations. I think they're really important and and even in the us I also look at the the large cap indices versus the small caps. So, you know, it is uh like the wrestle for example Or or the nazdak because I look at the nazdak has a lot of momentum stocks on it So it tells you what's kind of going on at the margins Yeah, I mean, it's a good tool that um That you guys can use that um Hopefully you're aware of where you can just obviously overlay The the charts on top of each other there and you um, you know, you can start to get us an impression as to which one is Is um outperforming for one, but then at least even if one's outperforming the other, you know, which one is um You know is one leading the other So, you know, we're seeing that Colin mentioned that the small caps here really not quite doing as well as their um, you know, more broader Sorry, is there more narrow blue chip counterparts? Um So, you know, is this sort of potential Head of shoulders that there's maybe going on In the in the russell in the small cap 2000s we call it Is that telling us something about what's about to happen in the us 30 certainly may not be but it's certainly worth watching You especially have to be careful with the dowel because it's only 30 stocks You only need to move four or five stocks to move the dowel As we've seen on the Chevron at like Yes Yeah, it doesn't take much you only so you can have a dowel move concentrated in a very small number of large cap stocks So that's one that that index that I do I am particularly kind of careful with when you watch and you look for confirmation So you see something in the dowel the first thing I do is look to the s and p which at least is a little bit broader Yeah, yeah, yeah um So I hope that that answers your question there I mean, I guess in terms of the candlestick pattern Goes back to what I was saying before is certainly the hammer pattern is um The hammer pattern or a shooting star You know reversing and up trying to definitely strong patterns and you with the benefit of hindsight you look back and you see Where markets reversed more often than not you see a hammer there because that's just a sign of momentum, you know the change of Power coming into the market sellers turning to buyers And if it all happens in the space of one one period or you know one day Whatever time frame you're looking at all the stronger indication that change in power has taken place Uh, but it is more like a first sign. I always think It's not the actual trigger to get in the trade itself necessarily Because if you're a bit more carefully you look back on the charts You'll see plenty of failed hammers as well where they you know, it could have been a perfect bottom But actually prices just moved lower the next day or you know, whatever the case is Fantastic. Well, this looks like a good point for us to to wrap up. It's about 45 minutes since we started So, uh, I think um, basically over the next couple of weeks now We're we're past the ecb next week We could probably see some action in the us around the fed meeting The speculation is on their considerable time guidance between the end of qe and the start of interest rate increases They're probably going to go back and there's a lot of talk that that may get changed or adjusted or they may Change their guidance. This is the last meeting before the voting structure changes. So it's the Some of the hawks is their last stand for a while until they until they rotate off now other ones will come in But still you could see the A bit the hawks trying to push their agenda a little bit more while they have the opportunity And and so we'll see a quite a we expect to see quite a bit of action in that off of the That's the next big thing between now and the end of the year Absolutely. Well, good luck trading to all over on who attended. Thanks. Thanks very much for showing up What do you know when the next one of these is collin? It will most likely be with collin and michael The next one, but I I suppose yes, it's thursday january the The 15th Thursday the 15th friday the 9th will be the non-term payrolls webinar and thursday the 15th will be the annulus debate Perfect great. Well that's a look forward to yeah. Thanks again everyone. Cheers collin Thanks. Thanks Jasper. Thanks everyone