 Welcome, traders, to this week's live market and friendly house session with me, Patrick Munlow. We're going to get started here in just the next 30 seconds. If you can hear me and you can, you can see the tick me a welcome screen type of why in the chat box, so I know that we are good to go. Okay, so before we get started with today's material, as always want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. Most importantly for today's conversation, the views or opinions expressed by me are solely mine. They're not indicative of or representative of Tickman UK or tick mill Europe limits. So for those of you who are joining us for the first time today, my name is Patrick Munlow. After I graduated university, I joined a city ELC consulting firm. I ultimately left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found an exit a consulting startup, which was focused on C sweet executive search for technology business. Pretty much a front row seat to the dot com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune of markets sometimes quite victory overnight. I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands I started day trading the S&P, or more appropriately day gambling after some early beginners luck I racked up some pretty solid games. But as is often the case, my beginners luck run out as the market phase change, I began to basically average down into what we're ultimately going to prove to be losing positions and I ultimately took a six figure hit to my personal capital. So this was a gut wrenching sobering experiences in understatement. I really had to stand back and figure out it was feasible for me to make a living from the market. So I decided to get serious about trading and sort out a mental with an excellent trading track record working with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years. It was time during which I it's not just my technical game in terms of researching and developing a strategy that crucially suited my personality extensively back and forward testing strategies, all of which run the pins by a rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly during the period of mentorship I significantly developed my mental game and probably the most important watershed shift that occurred was that I moved from being a highly goal oriented individual focused on financial games to becoming a purely process oriented. So what does that actually mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, often times in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process orientated and you have a professional training mindset, and you understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you're playing the probabilities, you lose that emotional investment and the hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcomes individual trades. So I'm concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even a string of trades. My focus on the next hundred trades, because I know if I focus on excellence and execution, my tool demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. A multi strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. In 2013 I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service, delivering again annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multi-million dollar portfolio. From 2010 I have also mentored hundreds of private traders of all experience levels, from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to inconsistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm also a resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to TIPA. My other, I guess, passion project is leading trader education for a premier trading education brand called FXcareerswap.com. We offer development and more importantly funding to retail trading talent. At FXcareerswap, we don't just develop retail traders market and strategy knowledge. We also work on mindset development through a structured program that culminates in managing the firm's capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis. And if you would like to find out more about FXcareerswap, I suggest you give the trading desk in London a call or drop them an email and they'll come back to you with further information about the program. Okay, so that gives you a flavor of where I'm coming from. Let's jump into the charts. And I want to start this week by revisiting the VIX. Now, VIX basically or the fear index is a measure of protection levels in the market. So when the VIX is low, and we're pretty low at the moment, trading 40.26, that suggests that the market is quite complacent and comfortable with the equity prices. And it suggests that there's a strong risk. Sorry, the sound is crackly. Is anyone else having an issue with the sound? I think maybe, Martin, you might need to log out and log back in. That might correct the sound issue. Okay, so back to the VIX. Like I say, it's a measure of market anxiety or complacency. In this instance, I'm referring to complacency. We're trading down into certainly the lower range since this year, since the pandemic peak here, which obviously there was a huge amount of anxiety and that said the VIX soaring higher, at the same time the S&P, which is the orange line down here, was in decline. And then as the VIX has been drifting lower, the market has ultimately been drifting higher. But what I'm anticipating now, and certainly from a cyclical perspective, we're coming into a period here where I see a window for the VIX actually to correct higher, not necessarily into the top side of the channel, but certainly we could be thinking about the midpoints of the channel. And if that's going to play out and that's going to impact the equity markets. Now, for those who are trading with me in the Tickmail Futures and Options strategy group, you'll know that I've been aggressively trading on the long side really, predominantly for the past couple of months. I feel now, I think the setup is coming, that we are coming into a period where I think these markets are going to correct. What we've got on a number of these equity markets is some leading, sorry, ending diagonal patterns. And if we jump onto the intrader for our chart, we get a better view here of what it is I'm looking at in terms of the S&P. But what I'm going to anticipate now, we've got a nice structure developing here, we've had a five wave pattern developed. Now the Wave 4 low, which was a symmetry swing support versus the Wave 2 low, meant that we trained back into the Wave 1, which technically speaking doesn't occur or shouldn't occur in terms of the strict early wave parameters. The only time it will tend to occur is when we have an ending diagonal pattern developing. So what I'm anticipating now in the coming session, certainly today, tomorrow, I think we can drift higher here, but any move up into the top side of this channel. I'm paying very close attention to how the price responds there and if we start to see sellers emerge. Ideally what I'd like to see is a small pullback here to set up this fifth wave extension into this 4,300 level on the S&P. And note that we've got a bunch of momentum divergence in place, certainly you can see it on the daily chart here much more clearly. Let me get rid of this window here. So you can see we've got plenty of momentum divergence. So what I'm looking for is one more high here to complete this interim cycle. And then what I'm going to be looking to do is to play this new high, what to prepare reversal patterns to also need to get set short positions to play for a correction. Now, when I talk about the correction here, what I'm looking for is a move equal to the last leg that we saw to the downside and we're on the four hour chart here. But certainly what I anticipate could be developing for us is that we trade up into that 4,300 and then we see some profit taking and we get a pullback basically into the 4,100 area. Now, again, want to pay attention certainly to tomorrow, late in the day tomorrow or at the open on the Sunday to see if this pattern is going to play out. As most of you will know, who follow my work Mondays and sorry Fridays and Mondays tend to be periods during which we can see a interim or local high or local low in terms of depending on which market you're looking at. So that's the pattern I'm watching really closely in terms of these these S&P is now as we head into the back end of this week notes on the weekly chart. So we looked at this last week we we took out. So this update. Yeah, so we've got to we've got to break through this ascending trend line support from from the postband sorry from the pandemic lows. And then we've snapped back and so what I'm looking for like I say is testing this top side now. And then I think we can see again we've got plenty of divergence here on the weekly chart. And then we set up them for a pullback and then this directly feeds into the dollar situation. Because again, if we are going to see a pullback in terms of risk sentiment, then that should see the dollar supported so the dollar took out its weekly descending trend line resistance when having a bit of pullback. So we go to the four hour chart here and put up the dollar. We've got a really nice technical pattern developing here, whilst we, whilst we hold for now anyway this 1991-1900. If we can get a pullback here into weekly rain sport, 1991-1800. And we've got the top side of this trend channel that we broke out to the upside more often than not, where we get what is potentially your way through extension that you could classify as that. We get a corrected pullback that tests the top side of the channel that sets up the wave five or sorry it gives way for low and then that sets up for a wave five extension to the upside. If we just go to the daily chart, you know, I'll show you what it is, what it is we're looking for and remove those. So what I'm anticipating now with the dollar certainly into the Fed's Jackson Hole meeting end of August is that we can potentially grind it out to the upside here. And the target for this corrected move will be that 93-73 and then we've got that yearly pivot just above there at 94. So that's what I'm anticipating is going to simply out in the dollar. And then that's going to immediately feed into obviously our euro view. So we'll pull up the euro charts. So again, what I'm anticipating here is that we are going to correct it as with the euro. And I'm looking for any move really into this 120 up into weekly range. This is 125 and you move up into there. It's going to be an opportunity to get short in my mind. And certainly what I'd be thinking about would be the downside of this projected channel here 117. But I think we should be back retesting these loads and certainly if the dollar is going to break to the upside as anticipated. So I'm watching for this correction to complete in the euro. I'm looking for bearish reversal patterns in this zone to set short positions sterling interestingly has potentially going to give me a signal here on this four hour candle close became just shy of the equal legs objective. So we had a B and an equality C would would give us 140 17, but we're starting to roll over here on the four hour time frame. I'm just going to see if this this trend candle using the five period be what will will turn red at close, we've got the case of crossing down to the downside and then meant inside to roll over so it could be that selling is going to lead the way lower here. The alternative scenario will be that we don't get a signal and we're going to do a double correction. Let me just draw. So I can say we could hold some support here, maybe the daily range support holds, and we get a double correction develop, and that could take us up into the top side of this channel here or certainly back into this prior support zone at the 140 80. Any bearish reversal pattern from there will be a signal to get it on the downside, but this candle is is rolling over now, as just put red as you can see which would be a signal there on the downside sterling. I'll see a bunch of these majors are pretty much in the same position. And what I'm looking for is the corrections to complete here, and then we should see certainly the Aussie we've got this equality objective to downside versus this structure here so we have a B and equal legs see will take down into 7420. So I'm watching for reversal patterns weekly range resistance 7620 daily resistance 7640 so any move into this zone, I think will be an opportunity on the short side in terms of in terms of the Aussie similar story really in the key way. There's no start correction, developing here so I'm looking for pullback to find some support to get that next get that equal legs in terms of in terms of the corrections complete, and then similar with the Aussie we have this corrective structure here. We have this be high see equal legs that I will be 6798 is the downside target there in terms of in terms of Kiwi Swiss yen couple of these years and again the answer kind of led the charge on the upside, pretty much in line with the equity indexes but we are starting to see some weakness we were looking at this Swiss yen last week on the weekly chart just for that and big outside reversal didn't actually flip the candle red yet but I think we are going to correct here into getting ABC corrective pattern develop. Certainly, again, thinking in terms of the synchronicity in the market so wanting to see these patterns kind of play out as maybe the SMP makes that new high. So any any swing pattern that sets up like this into the on 2140 area, I'll be paying very close attention looking for bearish reversal patterns to set short position similar story in the Kiwi. Yeah, again, highly highly, excuse me, highly correlated to the risk risk sentiment. And so I think we got we get a pullback here and then another leg of corrective action. So I've been looking to to get in on the short side in terms of the Kiwi yen Aussie and similar story again highly correlated to risk sentiments, and we've had a sharp leg here to the upside. So what I've been looking for now is a pullback into this potentially to this zone here at the 8317 and then another leg to the upside. So we could think in terms of that trend line there. So any move up into this 8450 will be an opportunity to look at short positions. Take a look at some of the metals now. Again, I like this on the short side. We've got versus this swing low here at the 1772 below the sea quality objective 1800. And so watching again, and we've got that daily range resistance coming in there 1803. So any extension here in gold into this zone. Again, I'm going to be looking for bearish reversal signals to get to set short positions and certainly targeting a new low in gold. We go back to the weekly chart with this last week. You can see we have this broadening pattern that's developing here. So when you move into this 1735 is going to be pivotal test for gold, because if we fail there, then we're looking at downside targets at 1649 and 20 versus the swing structures that we have in place here at the moment. So once you want to really pay attention to how we train if we trade into this 1730 level. And again, if we're thinking in terms of the dollar grinding out to the upside that should that should weigh on gold there. And we should see that move in potentially test this trend line support and if we break there, then we'll be looking at short positions. We've got a similar story in terms of silver. Okay, let me just get rid of these drawings. So we've had this impulsive move here coming out of this. We're going to break into the sideation zone break into the downside and we're not really struggling to get mountaine momentum on the upside so for me in terms of silver now again similar set up to the gold here, but I'll be looking for the any we've got this 2650 zone. We've got daily range resistance and weekly range is in 2694. That should be an opportunity, similar to the gold story to get in on the short side and so that we can think about probably weak in range support down to 2498 before we, before we see any major correction and see that if we're going to call it if we call this the one two section. That's what we're looking for when we're looking to place targets for these fifth wave extensions. We want to think about the quality objective versus way what is more often than not that's where these these patterns will will complete. If we get an equal legs move into 2650 watch for bearish reversal patterns, set short positions and we can target certainly moved down to $25 and 2490 as we do range support. Obviously being on a tear. So the level really now that's a significant interest for me anyway in terms of crude is this prior high here so 7720 you can see that we can extend into that zone. We, so what I've been looking for this type of scenario up into that 7720 level and as long as by the time we get up there we still got momentum divergence then I think we can start to think about a move back into the 67 for the next leg to the probably more likely than not through the $80 level in terms of crude but near term again and thinking in terms of risk sentiment obviously crude is a barometer of risk appetite in the market to a large degree. If we're going to see these equity markets roll over see a bit of strength in the end and we'll be anticipating that crude should struggle here into that 7720. Let's go to the four hour time frame on these. I'm watching the swissie. Looking for the swissie here to test its equal legs so versus this swing higher here at 9213 I'm watching the swissie to get down into 9144 and from there, looking for bullish reversal path set long positions. So let me think about 9290 to the 93 level as a decent upside objective for the swissie looting. Okay, we technically versus this swing structure here I don't this hasn't subdivided as clean as you'd like but certainly versus this swing now we've hit the equal legs objective. So we've hit the equal to 68 and buys have stepped in but I personally what I would that the area really be more interested in looking at in terms of the looting is a correction higher here but then ultimately getting another legs and downside, getting a test that has ascending trend line support the 161 extension of that initial reaction, hi there so 1218s bullish reversal patterns there I think are interesting opportunity, because then what you've got is the potential to play for the equality objective to the other side. So, we could be thinking then about trading into this 12660 area, and these prior highs so any move into this zone I mean paying real close attention to looking again for those bullish reversal patterns to to get in on the long side. So we're doing one. This is another key barometer of the dollar strength or the dollar story because this trade pretty much proxy for the Aussie. And you can see here if we think in terms of the structure that we've got and how, how we'd like to look at the one two. We are third wave here, and then we're going to be looking at a fall down here and then a fifth up here so if you keep we measure this corrective leg here and we overlay versus the high here. So what we could think in terms of a symmetry swing we've got daily range support there coming in at the six, 646 area. So what I'd like to see is moved down into there. So, by stepping and we get the fifth wave extension here. And again we use wave one as our targets to give us our side objective. And then that if this pattern is going to play out as it looks like it could do at the moment, and that's going to feed into the Aussie and the Kiwi. And like I say, you can pretty much trade those as a proxy. So we get another another corrective leg before setting up setting up the move to the to the downside. Sterling yen. So Sterling yen was trading up into looks like we're going to get potentially here to go to the daily time for a better view of it. So it's starting to roll over here we haven't made a new high we've got side negatively orientated. And we've got the momentum momentum looks also like it's going to roll over. So I want to pay close attention tonight to the close here and Sterling yen because I think we're setting up for a corrective move to play out equal legs to the downside here looking for 150 40 so this candle closes at or below these current levels and I see an opportunity on the short side. And we're not I'm not certain we're not calling tops or thinking about crashes in the market, but certainly we can reasonably anticipate that that's this structure is in place. We have an ABC and that should give us something like this on the downside here before we see the markets going to pick back up to the top side. The reason why I'm interested in trading this corrective pattern is again thinking in terms of the basics on this high did we have momentum divergence and we did have quite a bit of it actually so there's certainly the potential here for a tradeable corrective pattern back into this 150 40 terms of the terms of the sterling yen and those are that's a snapshot really of the charts that I'm tracking at the moment like I say my major interest heading into the back end of this week is going to be watching how this S&P trades as the risk as the barometer for risk in the market, keeping an eye on that VIX and keeping an eye on the dollar and some of these dollar majors because if we are going to get the potential for a turn here in risk and a pop in the VIX that should support the dollar and then we should have opportunity to trade the dollar majors to the short side so those are the key dynamics and drivers that I'm watching at the moment. And with that I'll open up if anyone has any questions or anyone wants to take a look at the chart I haven't covered. Feel free to type it into the type it into the chat box or I couldn't meet your mind. Let's go sing dollar four out. Okay, let's go. Okay, let's take a look at that. So we've had. Just a bit more data on the screen. The range here at the moment, you know this is 163 to 163.50 top of the range. And obviously we have a bit of a spike lower here with seven so the couple of scenarios that could play out this could be setting up as an inverse head and shoulders so we get another extension to the downside moving to that monthly range support. And from there, we head back up into range resistance is one scenario just change that. The other scenario here is technically let's see if we have, we traded the equal legs there pretty much to the tick. So we could classify this as being an impulsive move to the upside. And, and if we, and then we be classifying this as a corrective passing. So here we traded pretty much 61 61.8 into into that equal legs objective there. So what we could actually see here is maybe a pullback, and then you could be thinking the next bullish reversal so as we were rolling over a bit here but once this momentum gets back down into the oversold zone, then I've been watching especially if we, if the candle, we got a candle flip here from green to red, the next green rotation could be, could be a decent buying opportunity. Does that make sense. Yeah, I'm equally that that could, you know, that could be where we're going but at this point, what I also pay a little bit of attention to here. So this is a fact that we've broken out here to the upside in terms of, in terms of the site so that suggests a bit of underlying strength coming in. And if this next four rotation calm, making you low in price, as it has done on each other on every other rotation, and that starts to give you the signal that maybe we're going to see another leg higher in terms of the euro single question. This is my first session Patrick so what indicators are you using. Ruth, I have proprietary indicators. You don't need to use those you could, you could just use. I'm not, I'm not pushing any, any indicator I simply use these because they work for me, and they're based around volume weighted average price. This indicator here, bottom is a site indicator, which is just an enhanced version of the RSI gets better, better and visually works for me as well. The candles are coloured based upon whether or not they're trading above or below the volume weighted average price so it's just giving me an easily identifiable read on trend. VIX how do you add these spoons line yet so. Let's go to the VIX again. So that's the VIX there and then what you do is you go to compare and you hit S&P and new pain and a presto. Okay, are there any other questions. I have a question type and end in the chat box so I know we're all the same page and I can wrap this session up here. Ruth, if you want further information about the indicators. You go to trade a blueprint group on Facebook let me just see if I can pull that up. So if you can join that group, Ruth, I'll put it I'll put the link in the chat box now. You join that group and you can easily access more information about the indicators that I use. Okay, if there aren't any other questions I will wrap this session up here and like I say pay really close attention to some of these equity indexes as we as we trade into the back end of this week. And the other part of next week. Thanks so much everyone. This helps.