 Let's jump over and Teddy kegs that folks. You can check out Teddy's work, the tiger forex report. He puts out a new issue every Monday. He puts out updates throughout the week when warranted. You can check it out right under the newsletter tab. You just hit the subscribe button folks. It's $97 for the month. You get a 30 day money back guarantee folks. So you get that basically free for 29 days risk free. Okay. If you're unhappy with it, you cancel it for any reason. You get a money back guarantee. And the best part is two weeks from today. So you'd get that webinar folks is part of that 30 day money back guarantee. Teddy's going to be having a webinar and we're going to talk to Teddy a little bit about that webinar in this market right now. Teddy kegs that good morning. Good morning, Tommy. How are you doing? I'm doing good, man. I'm trying to keep up with this market and everything we got going on. Let's jump into, I guess the ADP number and some of the moves, Teddy. I'm not sure if you were listening. I was talking to our man, Kevin Hinks. And I was just talking about some of the moves. You know, the two year of course is getting a lot of attention with the moves it's having even this morning. What do you think of some of the moves, man? We're getting off some of this economic data that you could consider weak. Boy, quite a divergence from where yields are right now on the curve versus where, especially short term, that two year versus where the Fed is saying they want to have interest rates. What do you think of what we have going on? Well, you hit the nail in the head with the word divergence, which is something we've been talking about for a few months now. And especially with the yield curve, you know, it's kind of funny. We're here just in the beginning of April and it was just, you know, two and a half weeks ago that you had the two year on multi-month lows, you know, and now they've retracted huge, you know, making multi-week and multi-month highs, you know. And the same as with the treasury bonds, but of course, we know the short term was leading the curve back just three weeks ago. So you have, and back then I was saying, I'm like, we're gonna see the spread, the way the spreads were moving between the short terms and the longer term interest rates. I'm like, this is a big sign for what's going on in the economy. Now, obviously the interest rate market has gone bid because of the banking crisis, which is more systemic than their, I mean, they've been downplaying it incredibly, but there's still more ripples that we're hearing and we know that the market is feeling, you know. And I think one of the biggest thing also is the retraction and earnings that's coming too. It's being reflective now in the S&Ps. So what's going on in the interest rate market is you have a market that's being propped up. And I think that that's scaring a lot of, especially your professional investors and money managers because the algos, they just look at math, but when you look at what's really going on in the environment, you know, we're propping up the debt market right now. Right now we should really be at a higher yields, you know, and it's just all because of the banking crisis. And I mentioned that a few weeks ago when we first got the pop off those lows, and I'm like, there isn't something really, really wrong here, you know, because right now the Fed is coerced other central banks to be buying our treasuries, you know. So I mean, which goes against everybody's intended plan for what they were doing up until this banking crisis. So that's going to be a spillover. And you can also look at it in gold as well, you know. I mean, to quote JP Morgan, gold is the only real money, everything else is debt. And that I believe 100% and that for a long time because we've been building this house of cars on derivatives, on top of derivatives, on top of derivatives. You know, 2008 was a signal of things to come. 2008 we had a major correction in the markets because we had a lot of bad paper that was introduced in the mid 90s, you know. So it took a good 10 years to really impact the markets. Well, now we're getting the impact of the fact that we not only did we not learn our lessons, the banking crisis, or the banks got even worse, you know. So, and that's systemic, you know. And I think if you really watch, especially the S&Ps, you know, everyone's happy that, oh, they're near their highs, everything's getting strong. But you have eight stocks basically floating the whole market up, you know, up. Everything else is down on the year. The Russell, if you look at the Russell and the mid cap, you know, and the majority of the S&Ps, you're not doing well if that's in your portfolio. And even the overall index is looking for like a head and shoulders pattern. All we need is a slide of what like, you know, get down to like 20, you know, somewhere around like 40 to 39, even, you know, in the S&Ps and you're looking at without a doubt where you have a very big bear trend coming, you know. And I think that's gonna really, the interest rate market because of what they're doing, that's showing this, especially with the rallying goal. You know, the reality is, is that there's nothing there. There's no value, you know, especially in the stock market, if you have companies where their earnings are crashing right now, plus the velocity of the dollar is crashing, you're really looking at a house of cards on value, you know, so, and I think that that's something we really need to be mindful of, you know. Yeah, I agree with a lot of what you're saying, man. You mentioned the dollar and quite the moves of the dollar, of course, what do you think of the dollar, man, as we're near that 100 point again, 101.61, I got it on my chart right now. Yeah, well, once again, with the way the yield curve has, you know, flipped, that's really hurting the dollar right now because right now you have a Fed that's on a raising, on a hawkish basis and that's been driving the trend with the dollar strength or holding it up at least. And now you have the fact that the bond, the market is the market, you know, and as far as, as long as yields are retracting, that's weakening the dollar. And then also you have oil. This is, what's going on with oil is really, really impacting things. Like, remember how for a year and a half, oil was driving the bullish trend in the US dollar yen? Well, now because of what's going on globally with these new deals, the petrodialage, it's dead, it's dying, you know, and that's a very, very big deal. So as now as oil rallies, and especially since we're a net, now we import and we're not a net exporter, that's really, really going to hurt our economy as well as the value of the dollar. Oil keeps going up. I mean, we can see $100 oil is definitely in our future, you know, and if we do not start to change our policies in this country and become a net exporter, we're going to be at $150 of barrel oil because the oil we're buying, we're going to have to buy it with a conversion risk also. You think that when we buy oil, we're going to be buying it in US dollar terms, we're going to have to convert dollars to another currency just to buy oil. That's not a good thing for us. And can you talk about, Teddy, you've talked about it before, but I loved it. I remember the first time we're going years back, man, when my dad was talking to you, I was talking to you, but just the education you gave us on the different forex pairings. And when you talk about crude in particular, and there's of course so many different influences right now, but just staying on the crude, because I like it because we're getting some volatility in crude and I kind of agree, you know, $70, $80 crude. I see some risks to the upside there on those prices, especially with OPEC Plus now in the game, saying we're not going to let it go down. Japan, for instance, you know, exporter, importer versus the US and the amount of even production that we have. Could you just real briefly, we got a couple minutes here, talk to listeners, you know, US versus Japan, because I know the yen in particular, a lot of listeners follow with gold in particular. Could you just go over that for the listeners in terms of how their currencies are driven by crude in particular? Sure, sure. Well, obviously because Japan doesn't have very many resources, so they have to import their components to build and whatever it is that they sell. And crude oil obviously is something they need because that's what makes all the engines run, you know. So, and because of that factor, the price of crude, definitely as crude goes up, the value of the yen struggles, okay. You know, there's interest rate variables, there's all kinds of components, but when you have a country and a currency like the US dollar yen, for instance, that becomes a very big component versus like say like the dollar and the Canadian dollar because Canada is a commodity producing country, they're so close to us, you know, that's why we see it like right now, the US dollar of Canada has been a very big wide range trade. Oil doesn't affect it. Interest rates, we're kind of in tandem, so that's why we're in that range trade versus, you know, with the US dollar yen, we'd had a bull because of oil for so long. Interest rates, you know, and also interest rates, and now we're coming to where there's a BOJ change, but now the banking crisis has changed that. So, and then to be quite honest with you, the BOJ, even if they raise rates, their policy is to be buying, is they're still buying their treasury market, you know, and that's a big problem with that too. So I think as you have the turn in oil and they change to another currency versus the dollar for oil, that's how that'll change also the currencies also because it's no longer, that variable's not there. I think it's so cool, man. Can you hang with us during the break, Teddy? Sure, absolutely. Okay, perfect. Folks, we got a caller. We're gonna talk a little bit of futures volumes out there as well, and we'll talk a little bit of Teddy's workshop coming up in two weeks, folks. See ya. Welcome back, folks. We have the markets. Welcome back. S&Ps almost flat down just two points right now. We're talking to our man, Teddy Kegsdad. Please, folks, check out the Tiger Forex Report right under the newsletter tab. And Teddy, you got a webinar two weeks from today. The Tiger Forex Report second quarter market forecast webinar. Where briefly, could you just talk to everybody about what you'll be going over in that hour long webinar for your subscribers in a couple weeks? Sure. What we're gonna go over is a lot of the variables that are driving the FX market. So we're gonna go, have one topic will be the central banks. What are they really doing? What's going on? I mean, we already know that there's been a hawkish forecast from most of the central banks for a while, but now we have this divergent with the banking crisis. So we're gonna interlay that and see where the outlook is going into the summertime and as we get into the second quarter. Another thing is gonna be the shifting of trade zones. BRICS is becoming a very, very big issue, especially because if they actually do come up with their own currency like the Euro, see the difference is the Euro has a currency because they're all one trade zone. They're basically the sovereignty of these countries no longer exists. The BRICS, it's not gonna be that way. Everyone keeps their sovereignty and their currencies, but they're gonna have one base currency to use to kind of basically lift them. That's gonna become a very, very big issue, especially with world trade. So we're gonna talk about these are things that you need to, they're not happening tomorrow, but they're happening very soon. This is all stuff that's in motion. I love the big picture, man, because there are so many big shifts going on right now and we just got one minute left, but we're gonna jump to a caller, right? Teddy, we got Jeff from Philly and Jeff, if you could jump into it, I know it's about some futures volumes for Teddy, so we can cover it, man. Yeah, I'll ask as fast as I can. So my question is on United States dollar pairs on an intraday basis, is it fair to use futures volume to judge the liquidity of the cash market where there is no available volume to see? That's a great question. It depends on when you're talking about. If you're talking about around the rollovers, absolutely not because you have a lot of, where you have spreads rolling over that flips the market and the volumes in certain months. So I'll be very careful, like for instance, when you have, we just had March expiration. So from March 1st to the third week in March, I'll be very, very cautious with that, okay? If you're gonna, especially around that time, watch the option volume, not the futures volume. If you're trying to get a sense of direction and volatility, but especially when it comes to currency pairs, especially your majors, the futures only have so many options in what you can trade. So you really, when you watch the cash, that's the biggest thing to do. When I was in the S&Ps, they have a lot of volume, but they don't have the volume like you have something, say like for instance, at the 30 year or the S&Ps or markets like that. And there's times when they get thin. So if you're trading like the major currencies, those volumes are a little bit more consistent, but they get very erratic because futures has the weekend, where you don't have trading, and the hours aren't the same as with the cash. There's a little bit of a disconnect there so that the cash is the thing you really, really wanna watch. All right, I appreciate it, Jeff. That was a great question. I'm sure more people are wondering that. I was listening to myself. Teddy, man, I appreciate the time as always. We look forward to talking to you next week, and we look forward to the webinar in a couple of weeks, man. Sounds great, Tommy. You have a good one. Thank you, Teddy. You're welcome, Jeff. Thanks so much, Jeff. Thank you. As always, doing a fantastic job behind the board. Holding things for an extra minute there for some important information. Folks, stay tuned. Basil's up next. Have a great Wednesday. We'll talk to you tomorrow.