 Welcome to the weather forecast for the week beginning, Wednesday, November 22nd, 2023. This is Chief Meteorologist John Dins with four long month public media. Sunday the 26th, we'll have a full moon out there, it should be beautiful. Sun's pretty blank right now. There's some new sunspots coming around the limb over here, but not much to talk about there. For drought, things are getting a little worse, a little drier. We are into extreme drought in the south-central counties here, and a little abnormally dry slipping in on the eastern plains, but hopefully this next storm that we're going to talk a lot about is going to push that back some. Nationally, we have a little less drought down in the south than Texas and in the southeast. Louisiana is very dry though. Likewise, not much nationwide, nothing in Colorado. Looking at the snowpack animation, you can just see the actual storm here, I think that's it, 15th. So this one should push it back towards green, we need to get some snow down and hold on to that. Oh, there's one more. There's one more. Here we are, we're scraping along here pretty low, but it's still, not much snow is expected at this point in the season. Looking for precipitation over the last week, the western slopes and mountains got some nice moisture, half inch to inch. Liquid equivalent, very little happened down on the eastern plains though. Palmer divide got a little bit here, about a quarter inch to half inch of liquid. Storm severe weather is a little chance as a quasi tropical system goes by the east coast, but after that, no thunderstorms for the next couple of days, including with our system. So looking to the northern Rockies, you can see our storm system being to come together up there in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, slips down into Wyoming evening on Thanksgiving Day. So Thanksgiving Day still won't be too bad. Friday is pretty much snow off and on all day, heavier in the morning, kind of trailing off after that. I don't want you to be putting stuff up in front of my presentation. Thank you, computer. Alright, so normal high temperatures, we're almost 70 as I record here on Wednesday and normally it's only 49, dropping down to 46. Now the low temperatures are now entering the teens at night, so we would expect. I can see the really serious cold though, where the high temperatures are down below the low temperature expectations and there's about a day and a half of precipitation that almost all the ensemble models pick up. There's our storm getting its act together in the northern Rockies, we're still pretty dry down here and across the south. That was water vapor satellite image and this is what Friday morning looks like. We have a briefly cut off low rolling right forest, lots of jet stream action, pretty strong and there's the middle of the snow but it's snowing starting Thursday night and still going somewhat on Saturday morning. Okay, but oh, I'm doing a comparison though. So that's what the North American model sees for the very same time period the GFS, which I normally show here is showing the snow a little bit missing there in the northern Rockies of Colorado. The Canadian, I think it is, yes, looking very similar, lots of snow. Friday noon is also very cold, we have temperatures around 20 degrees below normal so we're going from 20, 25 above to 20, 25 below, so about a 50 degree temperature swing, 40 to 50 degrees colder. Then we have to go beyond Monday into the very next Monday, so December 4th for our next system so it will be dry after this one pulls out and you can see it's several western slopes and higher elevations storm at this time but that's so far away that who knows. So let's put this week into motion, you can see the trough digging down, cutting off and then moving out on Saturday kind of reconnecting with the jet stream or away it goes but we stay cold because we have that fetch of air coming from due north before it takes a turn heading east over us so November 29th a little bit of cut off down over Arizona, the ridges back that comes out but doesn't really do anything and then as we approach the 4th you can see on the west coast big trough coming in and away it goes. Alright, take a look at temperatures, we are above normal right now but very quickly the cold air comes down, it's very shallow so it can't get over the rockies at first so it stays on the eastern side and then eventually the cold air is there and then pushing down into Texas. Got a second surge, it's still not much in the western states though, we are right at the shoreline of the shallow cold air and then that goes, the remaining snow pack is visible in the colder temperatures there especially in Wyoming and there's a weak cold front coming down on the second with a quick warm up right after that. Just to show you the beginning of this is the precipitable water forecast from the GFS you can see above normal precipitable values as the storm does its thing Thursday Friday Saturday and then super dry air comes in behind that. This is dew points and just interesting to see how extremely dry this polar area is negative 13, negative 14 dew points but there's not much to talk about there so let's take a look at the system itself as it moves, you can see this is like how low the forms halfway through that kind of holds the storm in place that's why Friday night and Saturday we get a little bit more as yeah there you go and away it goes, it's not affecting the whole west it's mainly a Colorado Wyoming system so for the next five days notice this little finger of additional moisture it really shows up in the snow and we'll see if it holds but you're gonna see a pretty good gradient of snow going west of I-25 versus east of I-25 and even down here where the airport is you got missing a lot but that's four, five, six, almost eight inches in there I think just gets that color yeah so really big difference now with the temperatures being really low this is the 10 to 1 snowfall ratio map so one inch of liquid will give you 10 inches of snow if you go to the 15 to 1 which some of the storm will be that fluffy I can see 6, 8, 10 inches maybe almost 12 in there yeah so it's possible we could see some neighborhoods really get hit and one side of town like Fort Collins or a long amount getting a lot more than the east one side over the next 10 days not much more comes in the maps like about the same so we are almost 70 degrees on Wednesday transition day on Thanksgiving dropping under 42 as the first of the cold air starts coming in evening really good chance of snow picking up then really cold Friday and Saturday we're in the 20s maybe only the teens on Friday that's possible and maybe some temperatures below zero but definitely single digits for a few nights and then we get back to more seasonable 40s so check out Longmont leader for frequent weather updates I've got my snowfall roundup for Longmont and I will put any watches or warnings we should have a winter storm watch issue that's what the weather service is talking about putting one up and we're already to midday Wednesday so I'm expecting that to happen this has been chief meteorologist John Ensworth urging you to keep working up