 The Brickyard 400 coming up this weekend for NASCAR DFS, and it's not the Brickyard, technically, it's the big machine hand sanitizer for Wanda. One of the more fun things about NASCAR is all the weird names you get. It was the big machine vodka for Wanda, but they have pivoted, it seems like, for the coronavirus, so kudos to them. But an interesting name for sure for Sunday's race, and it's gonna be a similar race made DFS perspective to what we have had recently, because Indy is a big track, not a lot of laps, and you know exactly what that means. To our regular list of this podcast, we are gonna be targeting place differential with all that we've got. We'll break that down in just one second. Welcome on into cover, or whoop, welcome on into the heat shack fantasy podcast, powered by NumberFire, that's right here on the Fanduel Podcast Network at numberfire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis, I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com, confusing the podcast that we have here on the Fanduel Podcast Network, but we are here to talk some DFS today and break down the big machine hand sanitizer from Indianapolis that is on Sunday. If you are a NASCAR fan in general, they're gonna be running the road course for the Xfinity series on Saturday, going back to the oval, or I guess rectangle, for Sunday's race, but regardless, should be a pretty fun weekend for sports in general, but especially for NASCAR out at Indy. We're gonna break down the track and how you should strategize things from a DFS perspective in just a bit and go through, tier by tier to break down by favorite drivers for Sunday's race over on Fanduel. But first, the next UFC event, it's set to take place on Fight Island. Big Machine Hand Sanitizer for wanted is fun, it's no Fight Island though, and Fanduel is celebrating the highly anticipated action with one of its biggest MMA contests yet. For just $8 and 88 cents, enter Fanduel's $200,000 Saturday UFC Super Octagon and compete for your share of the $200,000 prize pool, including $50,000 to first place. So you've got all these big fighters in the card and you can follow along using Fanduel's live scoring as the fight's unfold. Someone is gonna win $50,000, or at least a share of that on the July 11th and it might just be you for more details. Visit Fanduel.com or download the Fanduel app today, eligibility restrictions apply. Let's take a look at the track breakdown here for the Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400. I'm just gonna keep on saying it because I think it's fun. Once again, another race to emphasize place differential because this race is just 160 laps that is 16.0 Fanduel points available for lap sled. This is the fourth consecutive race in which there has been less than 20 points available for lap sled. And that means we'll once again want to emphasize the exact same thing we have been, which is looking for drivers in position to finish better than where they start. And that can be intimidating because the field will once again be set by owner points and a draw. But past races show us this is still the ideal strategy for this race. On Saturday in Pocono, it was a very similar setup because it was the field of set in a similar manner. It's a track that is big and fast. So the pool of drivers who can compete is small. But even in that race, two of the five drivers in the perfect lineup on Fanduel were drivers who started between 25th and 36th. So not only were they not in the front, but it was two teams outside the top 24 in owner points who still made the perfect lineup. They still got the job done because they were starting further back. And the same thing happened in 2018, Indianapolis. In that race, there was no practice, there was no qualifying because of rain. So the field was set by owner points once again. There, two drivers made the perfect lineup starting 21st and 29th. And this week will be even more friendly to drivers starting further back than it was in that one. That race was set straight up by owner points. So if you were 21st and owner points, you started that race in the 21st position. This weekend, the team ranked 13th in owner points could start as far back as 24th. The team ranked 25th could start as far back as 26th. So our ability to find place differential candidates should be even better than it was two years ago for this race. In that one, we had multiple drivers starting in the back half of the field make the perfect lineup. So what I'm gonna do is start my process by looking for drivers who can get me points via place differential. The key data for determining who can do that will come from the two races this past weekend in Pocono because when you're trying to project who will be fast in a given weekend, the best route for doing so is looking at similar tracks. Both Indian Pocono are big, fast and flat. And one of the corners in Pocono was literally designed to mimic the turns in Indy. So you don't get more similar than these two tracks. So to have two races of data immediately before a new race at a very similar track is huge. Our grasp on who is going to be competitive should be even better than usual. So if you see a driver who is starting a bit further back, who was competitive in Pocono you should feel confident in them this weekend. You'll wanna be careful not to write off drivers who had issues because that's not gonna stop them from being fast this weekend. So don't exclude drivers who are normally fast who may have had issues in Pocono. But if a driver was fast in Pocono you can't expect them to be fast once again on Sunday. We should lean on the same data when looking for our studs. That's when we're looking for place differential. Same thing for the studs because specifically I think what we saw in Pocono should have us down on the Chevrolet. They had no drivers in the top 10 on Saturday. On Sunday 300 drivers did finish inside the top 10 but none of them had a top 10 average running position. So that's the way to factor in Pocono this weekend for the studs. If they were fast expect that speed to carry over and I think that based on Pocono I'd be down on the Chevrolets as well. It was the two big takeaways from me from Pocono. The other thing to mention with the studs is that I would vary how hard you go at them if you're multi-entering for tournaments. Varying your roster construction will be a key. If Indy goes caution free a balanced lineup will be great because there's not a huge gap in scoring between the highest scoring drivers and the pack. So the incentive to go top heavy is lower and there aren't a ton of cheaper drivers who can get you a top 10 finish if the race is clean so we should be lower on them. So some rosters should be balanced but that's not always going to be the case especially if you look at past years at Indy because in the past three Indy races 25% of the drivers entered have failed to finish due to a crash. That is a huge number and it doesn't even count the drivers who crashed but continued and finished that race. When that happens it artificially inflates the finishing position of drivers starting further back. So even if they're not super fast they can still pay off for DFS. Last year in Indy eight drivers crashed and failed to finish and as a result of that two drivers with salaries of $6,500 or lower finished inside the top 10. Bubba Wallace finished third and he had a salary of I think $5,000 for that race. So I think that what I do here is make sure I vary my roster construction and play a little bit of the assumption game where if you assume that it is a clean race not a lot of crashes pick your winner and then go bounce from there. If you assume it is wild which is what we've had the past two years in Indy then you can go a bit more top heavy because some lower salary drivers will pay off in that scenario. You can go a little bit more top heavy in that situation and try to find drivers at the front who can lead laps and win the race. So wrapping things up here from a track discussion perspective you do once again want to hunt for place differential look for drivers starting at the bottom and end of their respective tiers who can finish better than the starting and lean on them for your core. I'd vary the roster construction based on the way you see the race playing out if I think it'll be a crash vest once again it's okay to go a bit top heavy and maybe go with some lower salary drivers but I would also ask some lines where you just get pick your one stud and then go bounce from there. Finally I would use Pocono to decide on both the studs you want to target and the drivers you think get place differential because it's a really good indicator look at tracks races that are at similar tracks and doesn't get more similar than Indy and Pocono and it doesn't get more recent with both those races being just this past weekend. I think we should be in a pretty good position to have a good idea of who will be good on Sunday which should give us a lot of confidence in filling out our lineups. Speaking of that let's take a look at the tier by tier breakdown for Sunday's race over on Fandall starting off with the elite tier that is Kevin Harvick at $14,200 through Ryan Blaney at $12,000 and the top three drivers in my model are all in this range and there is a big gap between them and everyone else. The top two aren't a surprise it's Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin they are the two highest salary drivers in the field and they are plus 450 to win at Fandall Sportsbook that's not a surprise. The third guy is Ryan Blaney, he's $12,000 and Blaney is actually first in my model for this race it is the best mark that Blaney has had in my model for any race since the start of last year which is not a huge surprise given that he's having a career year but if we're looking at the numbers here there have been 36 drivers projected within a half position of Blaney in either direction those 36 drivers have won 28% of the races they've been in with the top five and more than half of them that does not mean I think that Blaney should be three to one to win this race but it does mean I'm going to be super into him especially because he's a lot cheaper than Harvick and Hamlin Blaney has no top fives in Indy but he did lead 19 laps here last year he has three straight top 10 average running positions here he was fourth last year from an average running position perspective so that's enough for me not to knock him down despite the lack of good finishes at this track if you start a lineup with a combination of either Harvick and Blaney or Hamlin and Blaney that leaves you with about $8,000 remaining for on average for your final three drivers in your line that is a big enough number for me to do it decently often especially if one of these guys starts in the bottom half of the top 12 because of the salary discount I am going to put Blaney as my number one driver in this tier, then I will put Harvick second and Hamlin third but all three of them need to be above the rest of the pack for DFS this weekend the other two guys in this tier are Kyle Bush and Joey Logano I am still pretty sour on Bush even though he looked better on Sunday in Pocono before the wreck so I will go Logano fourth, Bush fifth among the drivers in this tier moving now to the second tier on FanDuel that is Martin Truex Jr. at $11,800 through William Byron at $10,000 and the two guys in this tier who are starting deeper in the pack are going to be my two favorites for this tier that's Eric Jones and William Byron I was in on both of those guys to the first Pocono race last week it didn't work out but I'm going back once again for Sunday's race in Nindy they ran well in the Sunday version so it's not as if they were bad all weekend in Pocono Jones actually finished third in that second Pocono race Byron finished seventh and that third place finish for Jones came after he started that race all the way back in 38 Jones in three races in Nindy have been really feast or famine to an extreme extent he's wrecked twice but he was runner up in the other one that was back in 2018 Byron finished fourth here last year he also won an Xfinity series race in his 18 season at this track when they were experimenting with a package similar to this one so he can run well at this package at this track as he showed last year and the Xfinity series so I think especially if Jones and Byron draw towards the middle of the pack they will be high quality DFS plays once again so William Byron, Eric Jones two drivers to keep an eye on and see where they draw for this race of the rest of the group Martin Truex Jr. had the best car in Pocono the best cars in Pocono he had a top 10 average running position in both those races and with how Hamlin has been running I don't think we need to cross JGR off our list as a whole the problem is that Truex has never been that good in Indy he has had issues in three straight races he has just one career top five here so I'm not out on Truex he's actually in my betting guide for this week over on numberfire.com but I am gonna rank Brad keselowski first among those starting near the front of the pack ahead of Truex Truex's history at Indy is tough Chase Elliott's lack of speed in Pocono pushes him down for me so the Elliott concern applies to Alex Bowman too among the guys starting towards the front I'd go Brad keselowski first but I think that Eric Jones and William Byron kind of the key guys to focus in on from my perspective within this tier the mid-range on Fando for this week is Eric Almerola at $9,800 through Christopher Bell at $8,400 and the tier is starting kind of all over the place you got Eric Almerola, Kurt Busch and Jimmy Johnson starting in the top 12 I would rank Eric Almerola highest in that group because he was super fast in Pocono but none of them are going to be cash game options for me no matter where those three start Clint Boyer and Matt DiBenedetto though are starting between 13th and 24th and I think I am going to wind up having quite a bit of both of those guys due to the expected speed within their cars Boyer was 7th and 8th in the two Pocono races he also has two straight top bodge in Indy he had a top eight average running position in both those races so good speed resulting in good finishes and it makes sense Stuart Haas Racing typically brings huge speed to this track type and Boyer benefits from that so in this range, Boyer is going to be the top guy for me DiBenedetto is pretty solid tune starting in the same range he had awesome speed in Pocono 8th place average running position in the second race finished 6th there so the equipment on both these cars for Boyer and DiBenedetto will be good they could potentially even get you a top five finish and if they get you that starting between 13th and 24th that's going to be really valuable so between Boyer, DiBenedetto, Jones and Byron I want a lot of exposure to this middle tier which is another reason to potentially skewed towards having more balance liners maybe picking just one stud dropping down for your second driver and living in this range because there are a lot of good names starting in the middle of the pack within this tier if you can't get quite back up to guys like DiBenedetto and Boyer Christopher Bell is a great option once again because his car is still outside the top 24 and owner points so Bell will start between 25th and 36th he finished 4th in the first Pocono race the best finish in the cup series for Christopher Bell this year he wrecked in the second one but he has enough speed to come through at this track type which I did not think would be the case at the beginning of this year so if Boyer and DiBenedetto happened to draw near the bottom of this tier they will top this tier to me but if they draw better or draw higher in the starting order I'm fine dipping down to Christopher Bell who could start as low as 36th and also as top 10 upside so if they start near each other I'd go Boyer and DiBenedetto if not I would go with Christopher Bell the value tier on Fandle this week is Tyler Redick at $8,200 through Bubba Wallace at $7,000 and everybody in this tier will start between 13th and 24th so we can rank them pretty much straight up Tyler Redick has the highest salary but I think that's justified he drives for Richard Shildes Racing and they always tend to have huge top end speed on this track type they didn't really show it in Pocono but that's because Redick had issues in both races Redick was runner up here in the Xfinity series in 2018 last year was running really well he led 16 laps and then crashed while battling with Christopher Bell for the lead in that race so Redick did bite some people last weekend and they might be inclined to turn away I am definitely still in especially if Redick draws towards the bottom end of this tier and a lot of the same thoughts applied to Austin Dillon at $7,200 as well Bubba Wallace's team gets support from RCR and again he finished 3rd in this race last year he also had a really solid run with the 2nd Pocono race until some pit strategy got them late so I think all 3 of Redick, Dillon and Wallace are in play but I'd rank Redick at the top of that list also in this tier you've got the Roush Fender Racing cars of Chris Buscher and Ryan Newman they're in this tier and they've had some I would say surprising speed at this track in recent years back in 2018, Matt Kenseth was running a partial schedule for them and didn't really show a lot of speed that entire year but a really impressive run actually led some laps just starting 29th in that race so that was good and then Ryan Newman made his debut with Roush Fender Racing last year and finished 8th so a lot of life there Buscher was 10th in the first Pocono race they've got some speed so I would lean slightly towards the RCR cars of Redick and Dillon but if either Newman or Buscher draw near 24th they could be high quality plays as well moving down to the punting tier on Fandle that is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. at $6,800 on down and my favorite play down here and one I think is actually really good is Cole Custer at $6,600 Custer will start between 25th and 36th the same tier as Christopher Bell and the place differential upside for him is pretty big Bell or Custer I should say was decent in Pocono he had his 14th place average running position in the second race that tied his second best mark in the entire year it was also his best at a non-drafting track and his finishes in the two races of Pocono were his third and fourth best of the entire year and that makes sense because these are tracks where equipment matters a lot and that props Custer up because equipment is really good even as he acclimates himself to the new level of competition in the Cup Series Stuart Haas Racing has four top fives here in the past two years so the speed will be good in this car and Custer will be starting all the way in the back so if you need a value play to help you afford guys like Harvick, Hamlin, Blaney or to get back into that middle tier I think Custer is the first guy I would turn to at $6,600 good speed in that car good starting position definitely someone I would turn to on Sunday Stenhouse has started between 13th and 24th he has upside but he's also terrible in Indy he has one finish better than 24th here in his entire career he has straight straight finishes outside the top 30 it's a track where crashes are common his nickname is Recky for a reason so if Stenhouse puts together a full race and burns me then so be it I will deal with that but I am fine ignoring him for this week even while acknowledging that he does have upside to potentially put together a good finish in this race if it burns me, it burns me whatever, I don't really care the other guys to consider down here who are all starting outside the top 24 whereas Stenhouse is starting inside the top 24 are Michael McDowell, John Hunter, Nimaček and Ryan Priest Corin Lejoy gets some support from Stuart Haas Racing he ran well in Pocono but it's a pretty low upside play so among the punting tier Cole Custer is easily the best I put Nimaček second he'll wreck a bit too but he's got some upside Priest would be third for me and then McDowell would be fourth but all those guys are in play Custer is the only one I'd consider for cash games especially if he starts 36 like Cole Custer would be awesome then but I think he is a borderline not quite a core play for tournaments because the production has not been there but someone I am okay turning to in tournaments for sure let's finish up here with a picks to win for this race that we did for last week for the two races did hit on Denny Hamlin for the Sunday race so feeling good about that I'm gonna go with Ryan Blaney though as mentioned he is number one in my model mentioned him on covering the spread as well as a driver I'd want to bet for this race so we're gonna trust the model go with Blaney to win among the guys above $10,000 among the drivers below $10,000 I kind of like Clint Boyer at 90 something I actually forgot his salary Clint Boyer $9,500 on Fandle he's 26 to one to win so not exactly a favorite but among the guys below $10,000 he probably is the best equipment Key and Amarola do driving for Stewart House Racing Boyer top fives and two straight races here so my picks to win for this weekend for Indy are gonna be Blaney and Boyer couple of forwards riding that big speed we'll see if things play out on Sunday that is all that we've got for today's podcast recording this one early because of the July 4th holiday weekend so no starting positions the episode should be out on Thursday night so check back in check out the datasheet over on numberfire.com try to find drivers who can get you place differential points and go from there big thank you to Calvin Theobald our video producer for running the video side of things here today thank you Cal as always make sure if you have any questions for me you can hit me up on Twitter I am at Jim Sonnis J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S you can also follow the Fandle Podcast Network at Fandle Podcast PGA and NASCAR Podcast coming weekly here on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast that is all that we have for today good luck to everyone as you fill out your NASCAR DFS lineups for the Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 and have a safe and healthy weekend we'll talk to you once again next week this has been the Heat Check Fantasy Podcast powered by Number Fire