 Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good evening, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessaTrader.com nightly wrap up show. Hope everybody is doing OK. So let's dive right into it. Very, very aggressive day today. We'll talk about the pivots in a few minutes. Let's kind of go back to yesterday. We talked about the importance of the QQQ's closing right on the five day. And again, unfortunately, a lot of people woke up this morning and they turned around and say, well, where did this come from? Where did this early selling come from? Where did this aggression come from? And again, I think the five day, and we've been talking about this for years, it does represent, at least for me, and we've been talking about this for years, it really does represent the shortest term market sentiment. And the way we closed yesterday, a lot of the stronger names really gave up. Like you can see, it really gave up. And the question coming into today's session was, number one, where do you prepare for it? Did you put any stock into this minor yet major reference point in the markets or just in technical analysis? And what I saw coming into today, and I looked at charts, and we basically, last night's email, it was all on the short side. It was literally all shorts. Apple, as we talked about last night in the video, Apple was really close. But the problem is, there was a lot of names to it, the problem was with all these shorts, I really wanted a gap up today. So if they would confirm, they would confirm naturally and start taking out ranges. But everything started gapping down. And the one thing that I did see, and we talked about yesterday on the video, was showing us how aggressively bulls can defend these levels. Now, here's the two areas that I can make a case for. If you're a bull, I can make a really good bullish case. The bullish case was, even though we sold off today, we did hold the 50-day moving average, and we bounced. And again, considering gravity is real, we know it's real. And the fact that we had such a huge rally, the fact that we came in, tested the levels, and bounced, that is very, very bullish. You combine that also, that the market, a couple of weeks ago, started really negating and embracing negative headlines, still with the moving up of the whole corona thing with deaths and cases. You really have to have a good feeling if you're a bull. Here's the bearish case. Here is the absolute bearish case. And again, we don't know which way it's going to fall. But again, as a trader, you have to understand and you have to appreciate both sides of the argument. The last thing you want to do is paint yourself in the corner, paint yourself into an opinion, and be stubborn not getting out. So here is the bearish case. Every bear market, every bear scenario, every crisis, you can go back to as early as 1929 crash to as recent as the 2007-2008 mortgage mess, and every dynamic aggressive sell-off has been some pockets of really, really good strength. So if you are a bear, you could turn around and say, well, look, the pandemic is still very, very real. They're talking about opening up the country prematurely. There's still people dying. The economy is still frozen. This is nothing more than a bear market bounce and a horrific bear scenario. The market is going lower. And oh, by the way, we took down three areas of support. Check this. One, two, three, three areas of support basically on one candle giving us a very definitive line in the sand going forward. That's the cases. Here's the greatest part about all this. We don't need to have the clues or the smarts or the foresight to figure out what's happening next. We have a very, very specific level that if you are a bull, you need to reclaim this five-day moving average that was yesterday's close roughly around the 212 area. If you're a bear, here's the area of interest. If you believe in the stocks to trade from supply to supply, demand to demand. We talked about this last night. This is the area going forward. This is 203, 60s, 203, 50s level. If this any close will of the 50-day moving average and we start to testing lower levels. And obviously, if you look at the economy and stocks that are reporting, you can see how, yes, the market is not great as far as Main Street. But again, market doesn't have to be a reflection of Main Street. If you go back to even the generational of low of November of 2009, that was a dead, dead bottom of the whole financial crisis, the economy didn't recover when the market did. The markets took off in the bottom of 2009, November 2009. The economy really didn't recover for a couple of years. So the idea that we can go higher, we can have a recovery without a good economic backbone, it's obvious. It's always been there's plenty of reference to that in the past. So life and art does not kind of commingle when the stock market and Main Street are completely separated. Again, the market could go higher and the economy could follow two years from now, the market go lower, and the economy really implodes a couple of years from now. Again, it's all kind of disconnected. So you can kind of take that equation completely out of it. What's most important is, again, that we recognize that, again, our opinions don't matter. We wait for slides. We wait for clues. And again, if you saw how the market started today and we started talking about this at morning strategy, we wanted to see more clues. We wanted to see how would shop, for example, cooperate with another gap up. What is Netflix going to do ahead of earnings? Can Tesla go more and start breaking above this previous range? And we needed to wait for these things. And for all the people that were sitting there in rose-colored glasses and screaming, Netflix is going to 500, maybe it will. Netflix is going to 300, maybe it will. Again, if you see what's happening on earnings, had their initial pop ran to like 480, now it's pretty much where it closed maybe down a buck from the close. So it's, again, it wasn't the point of how good the numbers are going to be on Netflix. The point is, is the market baking in what Netflix already did for the last month? So taking Netflix out of it, again, I didn't even read the report. Does it really make a difference? Again, price action is the most important thing. This thing can break either way tomorrow. We have a very definitive channel above here or below here. So I'm not really worrying about trying to figure out what Netflix is going to do. The more important part of this is, how is Wall Street handling the actual earnings releases of all these companies? Obviously, IBM kicked it off yesterday. Like I said, in the previous night's video, does IBM ever beat, literally does IBM ever beat? I mean, seriously, what was the last time they beat a quarter? So going into tomorrow, for example, you have to kind of see how the market continues to act on earnings. And again, it doesn't need to be beta. It can be any company coming out. Is the market going to continue to give mulligans, to issue get out of free jail cards, right? Because again, at some point, the market needs to start trading on materialistic fact. The question is, going into this earnings season, is this market going to give a pass to everything? So far, we're getting that answer with IBM, although it missed their quarter. It didn't collapse. It was down only a few bucks. Netflix had the initial pop. Okay, but it's kind of holding in there. So we have to see if this is a theme or is Wall Street going to get frustrated? Look at the big picture of the economy and start really hitting stocks down as earnings season gets a little bit more longer in the tooth. The bright spots of earnings are, it's kind of actually very, very encouraging to see a stock like Chipotle, up pretty decent after the close. Percentage-wise, not as big as you would say, for example, like a Snapchat. We'll talk about this, but the fact that they are still viable, right? Still making deliveries and all that good stuff. Again, you could see here going into tomorrow, there's a definitive channel that if this thing starts confirming, it's going to go higher. If you look at Snapchat, again, is this the greatest company in the world? No, but at least they're again, they are taking advantage of that whole stay-at-home theme. If you look at the companies that were kind of programmed in that stay-at-home themes, the Zooms, the Amazon, the Netflix, the Roku's, right? The Peloton, again, I still don't get that play, but okay, the Pelotons of the world, are they going to translate into quarterly profits? So far we're seeing that with Chipotle, with the deliveries, so far we're seeing that Snapchat. Again, although I just didn't read the Netflix earnings, again, what could they have possibly said? As long as they didn't come out with chapter 11, they were going to be okay. They were going to get a pass and that's exactly what's happening now. Can Netflix obviously go lower tomorrow? Of course it can. Can it go higher tomorrow? Of course it can. Again, let these channels play out. So if you look what happened today, and we knew it was going to happen, it was very, very obvious when you saw the big high flyers like the Netflix of the world, the Tesla of the world, the shop get rejected at the top of the channels, we were watching for that fate. Did I expect shop to go down 65, 70 points from the pivot? Absolutely not. Did I think Tesla was going to go down 60 points, right? 50 points from the pivot? I did not. I thought Tesla was going to be good for $10, $11 maybe, maybe get down to the 707 level. So again, it's like one of those scenarios, like you find a good pivot, you trade a good pivot, you hit the good pivot and you turn around and say, holy crap, this thing just got absolutely destroyed, again, it's very, very hard to turn around and say, you know what, I'm going to step up to the plate and hit that five run home run. Again, you can't prepare for a five run home run. Exaggerated themes, absolutely. Can you take shots on things? Educational bias, yes. Gambling on shots, no. Having realistic expectations for measured moves, absolutely. Having irrational movements that the stock is going to go through two, three, four moving averages at once and find the bottom not so much. So if you look at the pivots today, again, very, very aggressive guys, okay? Another really aggressive day if my feed would load up here. Another aggressive day here and we'll talk about that in a second. Where the hell are we? Did I go back an extra day? I think I gave, I think I went back an extra day. Yes, okay. So here's what's going on this morning. So I put these two channels in. I actually put a downside pivot on Tesla and I put an upside pivot on Tesla, but 720, 712 and the next two levels to watch if it builds below, it can flush. Here is Tesla, okay? Here is Tesla, here is the 720, right? It confirmed the 720, excuse me, excuse me, here's the 720. It confirmed the 720 and it goes down to 712, okay? My last cover was at 712. I took the second entry, my last cover was 712 and it went to like seven, 10, started bouncing back. I'm like, oh, perfect. And then 30 seconds later goes to 673. Again, how do you plan, right? How do you plan for a five-run home run? Again, let your worst trade be a stock that could give you a push like this. Again, still the best stock ever. Work never made it to the 30-20 area, obviously. Roku, a monster move, okay? A monster move, 130 if it builds below can flush. Here was Roku and again, I put two pivots on Roku, one to the upside, one to the downside. So here was the 130, right? Here was the 130, right here, excuse me, it was 130 right over here. It broke the 130. The initial move was down to 126 and then a 10 o'clock candle came, confirmed that, went all the way down to 118. So again, they were pulling them one by one by one. Tesla was obviously the biggest one. IBM, not a huge move. 114, if it builds below, can flush. Here was IBM, went down to like 12, 11, I think, right? So here was the 114. Yeah, it went down to 12. Again, not the biggest move in the world. Actually held up pretty well considering. And I kept on saying, stay patient, we'll get some more clarity at the 10 o'clock channel, absolutely no rush. Roku then obviously I put one to the upside. And again, here was an upside pivot, quick upside pivot on Amazon 2418, 2420, for a quick cashflow move to 2428 supply. Here was Amazon, again, look where it stopped, right? So here was the 2420, right? And look where it stopped, right? At supply at 2428.30. So again, stock straight from supply to supply, demand to demand. So good job for all you guys that caught that as well. IBM take on the way down, Roku take on the way down. Like I said, perfect, right to 2428. Here's, I screwed up Tesla, I screwed up Netflix. I messed up Netflix. I actually wound up losing 70 cents, 75 cents on Netflix. So I short Netflix, it goes down like 70 cents. The problem I keep on forgetting that Netflix is the children in the room. Netflix is the crappiest one out of all these stocks pre 10 o'clock candle. The reason why this spread is ridiculous. It's so damn wide. You get one seller that's great, you get one buyer that's great, but you have to guess. And I was overly aggressive. My first trade of the day was actually BYND. We bought the remount and it spiked up. So I took about a dollar and changed on BYND. So I short Netflix, okay? I short Netflix and it goes down like 70 cents. And then it's like, they spread me out. It literally goes from like 435 and change to like 438. So I'm down like $2 instantly, but it's not a real $2 because they're spreading you out of a dollar. And it came back in under 47. So I make some covers. So I wanted to lose like 70, 80 cents in the trade. And that's okay because it ran up like $3. And then like 15 minutes later went down like 11. So I was like, I was all discombobulated. But again, it is what it is. This was the upside pivot in Tesla. It took out the 52, went up to 53. Obviously never had a second entry there. Got a big, big move obviously in Tesla. BYND obviously that was the high of the day, never got down there. Here was definitely the move of the day. Shop, 634, 635, if it builds below it can flush. I thought it had a shot, I thought it had a shot, initial shot to 622, okay? And if you look at the comments on the feed, you'll see exactly why. So I thought the initial move, I said, okay, 622 next stop, okay? And the reason why I got 622 out of this, let me just show you why I wanna only talk about the 622 area. So here was shop, right? So here was the 634, here was the 634. So here was the 622, everybody see that? Again, you would think last time it stopped here and it bounced. So you figure it would pause at 622, okay? Not only did it not pause at 622, this thing just got destroyed. So for those of you guys who took your last piece off down 11, $12, again, you turn around now and say, all right, 11, $12, that's great. But for those of you guys who caught the really, really big move, I mean, this thing went all the way down to 556, just the absolute manslaughter on shop. So again, congratulations on there. The polls were sick between Roku, Tesla, Roku, Tesla shop, just absolutely ridiculous polls. Find and screw up Netflix, that would have been good as well. Tesla's the go. Yeah, I mean, best stock of all time. And again, there was an upward bias here on Amazon, if the future's improved, 23, 29, 23, 30 needs to build. And here was a cash flow trade in the afternoon. Here was the 23 right over here. Here's the 23, 29, 330 area when the market rallied a little bit, went all the way up to like 370. It actually put up a $40 move. This is all you guys who caught that in the afternoon, good job there. And again, aggressive morning, let's just sit and observe, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And everything's all good, right? Everything's all good. Again, here's selling to strength. Maybe stretches out to 2350. It actually stretched out to 2370. So the dynamics were good. Here's where, again, I think we need to give the bears the benefit of the day out tomorrow. As you can see here, if you look at all the 60 minute channels, right? Everything is not really participating. Had a really, really hard time getting out of the supplies. That includes Amazon. That includes Tesla. That includes Roku. And again, guys, you gotta watch Boeing, okay? A lot of put buying came in today, okay? The 120, the 125 weekly expiration to the downside. And if you look at why that is, if you see this channel here, this daily channel, if this thing confirms tomorrow, you could get a push to 120. The reason why that is the low from April the second, okay? So tomorrow, I wanna give the bears the benefit of the doubt initially. I like what I'm seeing in Snap. I like what I saw in Chipotle. Again, we have to see if the market gives all these companies kind of a mulligan, a free out of jail pass. Or do we see the market confirm today's price action, confirm today's levels, and have a really, really aggressive pull? Again, to be determined, again, we're not that smart, guys. Let the action come to you one day at a time, one trade at a time. Guys, stay safe, good job today. I'll see you. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. You're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire. Want daily trade ideas directly from Dan? Straight off his personal watch list? Unlock our free PS60 vault where you'll get nightly updates on pivot opportunities we're watching for the next day's session. Click the link in the description to get started today.