 Freshwater is the bloodstream of the entire biosphere and is the basis for our ability to have human development or prosperity or successful economic development for humanity on the planet. Wax Las Vegas grow and you can see that we're adding a lot of suburbs, a lot of green space, golf courses and at the same time we go back to Lake Mead and Wax It started in 1984. And watch the shore. So we're seeing Las Vegas grow and Lake Mead shrink. Of course Las Vegas is a representation of that fresh water is the bloodstream of the biosphere and is the basis for all life. We consume in the order of three to four thousand liters of fresh water per person per day. So three to four tons per person per day and 95% of that is for food production. So what you see Las Vegas is predominantly in terms of the big volumes is water used for as Randy points out everything from grass lawns to irrigated agriculture. Water for food is the big challenge in terms of fresh water. The second insight here has to do with what happens globally when we have rapid rapid urban development and population growth. Scientifically we've been able to estimate that globally we can use maximum four thousand cubic kilometers of fresh water per year without undermining ecosystems and losing resilience and losing carbon sequestration and natural ecosystems. And today we're using a bit over two thousand and in many regions such as in the Colorado river basin we've already hit the ceiling. We know today that cities like Las Vegas and upstream are over extracting to the point that we are drying out the Colorado river undermining ecosystems along the river basin and forcing urban development such as Las Vegas to unsustainably overutilize groundwater resources instead of using the surface water that flows in the Colorado river. So we can talk of an unsustainable and very risky development for this very large and very important economic and social center in the U.S. and similar developments can be seen in everything from New Delhi to parts of China. So this is one of the red threads in terms of global risks in the future. Let's move to northern Iran. Let's watch Lake Ermia shrink over the past 32 years. And what you're seeing is the water is being diverted into these agricultural areas, the green areas just to the left, to the west here and to the south. Rapid population growth, exponential rise in our exploitation of resources, ecosystems have overall led to a point where we can talk of humanity now starting to hit the ceiling of the planet's capacity to support humanity in a sustainable way without causing potentially disastrous abrupt changes. And water is fundamental to this. And the RLC is a classic as we all know with large scale irrigated cotton production undermining the whole lake system. The reason why the RLC has shrunk so much is not only because of the linear extraction of water, it is because we see tipping points occurring that you shrink a water reservoir like this to a certain point and then it becomes so shallow that the evaporation increases because of the average temperature suddenly abruptly rises to a certain new level so it becomes irreversible. So basically the lake takes over and evaporates itself to a drying point and so this just shows this delicacy in terms of resilience in pushing systems too far to the edge. When we change the climate or when we cut down forests or when we overutilize groundwater or rivers, this has immediate repercussions on the planet's ability to remain stable. A rainforest can abruptly tip over and become a savannah. A rainforest exists as an ecosystem thanks to its own self-reinforcing feedback which is to self-generate rainfall and maintain humidity in the system. Now what happens when you start producing this fishbone pattern is that you open up the system not much but what happens is that dry air then comes through which dries out the air, releases then less vapor and the system suddenly crosses a tipping point and can no longer generate rainfall. So this is the dramatic tipping point we are seeing in rainforest and we have paleoclimatic data showing that this has occurred in the past. So the Amazon, and this applies to essentially all large ecosystems on the planet today, are of collective relevance for us as humanity as a whole and it has a lot to do with the water interactions across the planet. We have reached a point where we now need to be sustainable stewards of the remaining fresh water on earth. And if we are going to truly live up to sustainable development goals which stipulate not only ending hunger but also doing it to sustainable agriculture, meeting the biodiversity, fresh water and climate planetary boundaries will certainly require, if we take it seriously, protein delivery increasingly from the oceans and from aquaculture systems. So we are in a very delicate situation where we have expansion of agriculture and actually the R&D is moving ahead quite in an interesting way there. This is, if anything, one of the really major hotspot alerts for humanity right as we speak. We know that 90% of the heat caused by our emission of greenhouse gases is sucked up by the oceans. So we tend to just look at temperature in the atmosphere but in fact the oceans is the big reservoir of heat. Naturally this heat is stored deep in the oceans but El Nino events naturally brings up heat to the surface in particular the Pacific Ocean releasing this to the atmosphere. El Nino events can actually be dealt with if you have a high degree of biodiversity in fish on coral reefs. Now we have a record low in biodiversity on coral reefs. And finally we have a change in the shock waves of extreme weather events very much related to the change in the jet stream in the Arctic because the Arctic sea is melting so fast that the Arctic vortex has collapsed pushing the jet stream further south so we simply don't know what shock waves in extreme weather we may see. The real-time observation that this kind of data from satellites now allows us to visualize in this way shows clearly that every corner of the planet matters. It's something of this kind at large as a situation room on the planet in real time to observe what's happening in our world and earth to be able to better understand what are the shock waves we can see in terms of geopolitical changes. I'm going to go to the northeastern part of Syria. We know that Syria experienced a very large drought between 2006-2009. So this severe drought we know as a fact is a very severe period and it also triggered as a fact over one million farmers have to be forced to leave the rural regions from these drying out irrigated regions in Syria and move into cities like Aleppo and Damascus and that was combined as you may be aware with the rising food prices and volatility on the world food market that occurred at the same time because of the forest fires in Russia so President Putin actually shut the export borders of Syria and Kevin Rudd the Prime Minister then in Australia shut the export border in Australia because of 12 years of consecutive drought never occurred before not possible to dealing from climate change. This led to volatility on the world food prices which actually helped or kind of played with the very abrupt changes in the Arab spring. We know that food riots were actually very central to the Arab spring in cities like Cairo and Tunis which were related to these forest fires and droughts which occurred at the same time as the Syrian insurgents with this volatility on world food prices that rose with over 100%. So we may have the first example of social environmental abrupt interactions coming over into severe abrupt geopolitical changes shown in the kind of data that we have here. This gives us an early warning system of the typical kind of complex interactive risks that the World Economic Forum focuses a lot of its dialogues on the risk of abrupt changes in societies related to for example changes in water resources due to shifts in climate and shifts in biodiversity.