 Week 10's NFL DFS Main Slate is one where we actually have a decent amount of acceptable value at running back for this week. Guys, we can actually feel pretty good about and that's a good thing because the lower salary wide receivers ain't great. So we're going to break things down from a DFS perspective. Let you know where we are looking with those value backs, which of the wide receivers we are prioritizing with the extra salary and our favorite game stacks for week number 10. Welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Numberfire. That's right here on the FanDual Podcast Network and Numberfire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for Numberfire.com. Joined here as always by Brandon Gedula. He is the managing editor of Numberfire.com. Brandon, we are almost two week 10. Interesting slate because there are a lot of ifs, conditionals on this slate still to be decided. How are you doing today? Yeah, I'm good. We at least have a few games we can feel really good about and I do want to apologize for looking down so long during the intro for anyone watching or for Jim who I'm sure was staring at me. But I got a new iOS update and the like notifications, I usually swipe to open stuff, but you tap them now and it was really long. Tap notification to dismiss it? No, it's like open it. Unless there's something I didn't, I don't know yet, but this is why you buy you buy Google pixels instead of trashy, trashy other stuff. Well, hope you guys try to retweet your your link to the show. And so I didn't want to give up on it so quickly. Thank you for the dedication interaction, man. Like that's that's that's that's friendship right there. Dedication interaction. I know it benefits you too because more stuff, etc. etc. But like, hey, I still appreciate it. So beyond that, how are you doing today? Good. Yeah, it's a it's a good, good Thursday. Got some nice nice weather here in the area, like low sixties. I'll take that I was out shooting around the past few days in a backyard basketball hoop. So thought those days were over in central Pennsylvania, but we got a few a few good days for that. I considered a bike ride this morning, but then it was 38 degrees, so I did not do that. So it did not translate up here. Also, I feel relieved because I am flying to Seattle today for a wedding. I kind of forgot until this morning that DFS is not legal in Washington state. I googled it and reserved all my entries, but I was like, you know, a couple hours away from making a massive, massive error. So I feel grateful for that. Also, like, there are plays in the slate I'm legitimately excited for. I told you and JJ last night, there was a player I wanted to vomit because I was so excited to use them. Like, I think this is a pretty good slate. It's my favorite site we've had in honestly, maybe two months at this point, two months would be the whole year. But like, it's been a while since I've been this excited for a slate. Yeah, I mean, I figured two months like kind of gave us weeks one and two or something like that, which we usually love. But I actually thought you're going to take it a different way and say you're excited to see Seattle. The Northwest is very beautiful, but you just spun it back around. And I do believe if I'm not mistaken, the player you're referring to might be linked to Seattle. He resides there. It's going to be fun. We get Russell Wilson back this week. We bike at Aaron Rodgers. Probably going to get Aaron Rodgers. We get Dearness Johnson potentially as the Lone Ranger in his backfield. We've got James Connor, hopefully with Kyler Murray. We'll see how that plays out. But a lot to discuss here today, we're going to break that down for you in just one second. But first, a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. No more NASCAR. I'm sure you're all heartbroken about that. I know that I am. We do still have UFC coming up every Friday. We've got PGA for one more week. We've got NBA and NHL every weekday from Tom Vecchio. And of course, we also have our recap podcasts on Monday. Also, Samo Casted on the FanDuel YouTube page. So hit subscribe on the FanDuel YouTube page. Hit like if you're watching there right now. Appreciate those of you tuning in right now as well. And also hit subscribe on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. While you're there, leave us a rating and review because that does help us out a bunch. And thank you. To those of you who have done so already, the Listener League is up for week number 10. Go to fanduel.com, slash league, slash listener league, fanduel.com, slash league, slash listener league to get yourself entered. $5 entry, three entries max. There is no rake. So very beneficial contest. The kind of contest you should seek out when you are playing Daily Fantasy with no rake there. So FanDuel makes nothing from this contest. FanDuel.com, slash league, slash listener league, $5 entry, three entries max. I should probably stop megaphoneing the fact that they make nothing off this. It kind of sounds like I'm like celebrating it and like, you know, take it from the corporation type thing. But like also they do encourage us to do this podcast. Maybe I should quiet down on that. But anyway, fanduel.com, slash league, slash listener league to get yourself entered for that. Speaking of FanDuel, they in simple mobile have partnered up to add an extra layer of excitement to one of the biggest free to play contests on the market. It's not the Listener League. It's which is unfortunate. Introducing the FanDuel free to play grid iron pick them contest presented by simple mobile, a completely free to play contest that gives you a chance to win big on Sundays. Here's how it works. Simply answer 10 pick them questions for the week's slate of NFL games and compete for a chance to win your share of $10,000 in cash prizes. If you're one of the highest scoring users on the day, you'll be eligible to win some cold hard cash. Kickoff will be here before you know it. So head to FanDuel.com slash free slash contest slash grid iron pick them FanDuel.com slash free slash contest slash grid iron pick them spelling and unseating is tough and make your picks today and skip the contracts with high speed data talk and text on a powerful nationwide network with simple mobile. For more details, FanDuel.com or download the FanDuel fantasy app eligibility restrictions apply. I'm going to see if there is a banner up on FanDuel.com to make that easier than going to the URL and there is. So if you go to FanDuel.com, you can scroll over a couple of manners. It is up there. So do that rather than the URL because that is a whole lot easier eligibility restrictions apply. Let's go to the slate overview for week number 10. And Brandon's me. This late comes down to how aggressive are we with the value running backs? Dearness Johnson potentially, Mark Ingram potentially, James Connors in that discussion, Michael Carter's in that discussion, Devin Singletary. We've got some options at value back, obviously some better than others. But like my key for this week is how aggressive do we get with those with those value backs? What's the key slate overview for you this week? You know, that's a big part of it because on Monday's recap show when we were doing our salary scroll by the time we got to running back, we saw all of the big names and there is a big opportunity cost with avoiding running backs who have the potential to put up 25, 30 FanDuel points. Of course, it always comes back to the age old conversation of like points per dollar. Now I will say that some of the value backs if we include James Connors especially based on how he looked last week. These guys still have high ceilings like Dearness Johnson was really good in week seven when he started. Not all of those players necessarily profile as elite upside options, including someone like a Devin Singletary. You would assume Mark Ingram doesn't really have a ton of receiving work that some of these other backs have at the top. So it comes down to I think it comes down to just running back this week because that will naturally translate over into the other positions. For tight end, for example, I'm not that inclined to feel like I have to roster Kyle Pitts at a super high rate even though I love that game. We have some value options there so it's not really just Pitts or Bust there. But at receiver, we have value running backs we don't really have value receivers. So the simplest thing to do is take the value running backs so that you can roster the higher salary receivers but I don't know if that's the right play in every single lineup or as your baseline assumption. So really narrowing down those value backs I think matters for running back but then obviously that translates over into the rest of the slate. So I think that's the real takeaway to start. Yeah and I think for me it's just prioritizing the value plays deciding which ones have the upside you were talking about. I think that Johnson does, Connor does, Singletary probably not. Carter is in a really tough matchup which I think limits his ceiling as well. So there's some passive failure there. I think it's, you know, do I go, we're talking like am I at 80% in Tierness Johnson? You know, that's kind of the discussion that I'm having with myself is okay, I know I'm going to use these guys. Assuming Nick Chubb doesn't, you know, get cleared before Sunday, I don't get to use these guys. How much do I use them? And that's kind of the focal point here because like outside of, you know, he's in the value play sped up for wide receivers, I can also use it to spend up for Najee Harris, Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffery potentially, Dalvin Cook, all these guys are in really good spots and I think that that makes it a bit more enticing as well. So that to me is the question mark. A, how hard do I go with the value backs? B, which ones do I prioritize? Which ones can I tolerate? And C, where do I spend that excess salary? Something we'll be discussing throughout the podcast for today, but we got a lot of injuries to break down. So let's do that right now. Russell Wilson has been cleared to return for the Seahawks. Aaron Rodgers can't be cleared until Saturday at the earliest. There is a chance he hasn't been cleared. Doesn't sound like a super high chance, but we'll talk about that game in the bookmaking section. Kyler Murray, Deandre Hopkins, Ron Dale Moore, and Chase Edmonds all missed practice on Wednesday for the Cardinals. Not great. We know Edmonds will sit. Others are up in the air. So Brandon, did the injuries here to impact guys alter your view of James Connor at $7,000 for this week? Well, it didn't really alter them last week. I don't like to look at just one week of data and say like, Hey, he's going to be that efficient. But and this is the kind of the tricky part for I would say both of us, but especially me. I'll take the blame here. We don't really watch players for how good they look. It's more about the opportunities. And so, I mean, Connor had the opportunities, but he also looked like James Connor has not looked before to me. It's something we talked about on Monday. So it's really hard to kind of talk yourself out of James Connor, especially at that mid-level salary, because he can fit in more of that like, yeah, I'm going to roster Dearness Johnson and James Connor. Both of those guys are probably under salaried for what their role really could be and the ability to put up yardage and obviously have elite red zone usage. So it would bump me down a little bit on Connor. But honestly, like if Kyler's banged up, they might just lean on Connor a bit more. So either way, I'm not going to talk myself out of James Connor this week by any means. I think you phrased it right where it might not be down a bit, but like, I'd still be very high on him. So maybe, you know, I'm talking about 80%, you know, maybe I go from, you know, X percent and X percent minus 10 with the X being a very high number, you know, something like that. Maybe, maybe I knock it down. So I think it's important to account for injuries. Maybe they just had a really good game against the, or maybe the 49ers had a bad game last week. So maybe we can't expect Colt McCoy to do what he did last week. But I think seeing him do that, McCoy is like a competent backup for sure. He's not a total, you know, nothing. So I think that's a positive. And I think that that's a good thing for Connor here at 7000. I have a lot of confidence in him. More confidence right now in Dearness Johnson, Nick Chubb and Demetric Felton both tested positive for COVID-19. They could play this week if they return two negative tests 24 hours apart. Seems like a long shot based on how players have gotten cleared so far this year. So that means that there's a pretty good chance we get to Dearness Johnson by himself. I mean, Brian Hill is in the practice squad, but he's the only other guy on the team right now who's not on the COVID list for $5,400. How much Dearness would be too much if this does want to be in the case? Is there a limit? So it's the Lindsay Lohan gift from Mean Girls. The limit does not exist. Yeah. So I mean, and that's a little bit, like, obviously there's a limit, but... I mean, it honored, I guess, like as a limit. Yeah. I mean, there is. And I've played 100% of running backs this year. I've been much more aggressive in that regard. You said 80%. I think that's probably about where I would be if we get Dearness by himself. His workload on week seven, really good. He had the production to go along with it. And I don't, again, it's one of those spots where he might be very popular, but I don't care so much about popularity at running back to the point where I don't really care at all. So 80% sounds pretty nice. Yeah. Where are you at with Dearness relative to Connor? Let's assume that Kyler plays. Where are you at with those two relative to each other? Like... Like about 80% Dearness. Like, let's use that as a baseline. Where you at in Connor? Probably about... Did you say if Kyler plays? Yeah. Let's do Kyler. Give Kyler plays. About 70%, 80%. His salary is a little bit higher, but I'm very easily looking at a case where I have a ton of Connor Johnson lineups. There's probably a Connor Johnson out there listening, but... What's up, Connor? Connor Johnson lineups. So, yeah, I don't really want to talk myself out of that, even though it feels like you're really out over your skis. You're exposed if something goes awry, but you can make such an easy case for both of those options at their salaries. Yeah. I think that he's 60 to 70 for me. So, a tiny bit lower just because of, you know, they could work, you know, Benjamin and more. Quote McCoy might not be the same. That game could just be bad. So, I think that maybe 60 is probably where I settle out, but it's a 60 I feel good about. I think if I were to go any direction and go higher. So, that's where I'd be with Connor on that situation. Also, Mike and Mark Ingram here. Alvin Kamara this practice Wednesday with a knee injury. Sounds like it's actually the legit thing that he's banged up right now. So, if Kamara were to sit, how would you view Mark Ingram relative to D. Ernest Johnson and James Connor? Ingram is $5,500 versus the Titans. He would be third for sure. Distant third? I think distant third. I talked to you on covering the spread this week, and I said that this is one of the games where my model, like the over, that's not to say that this is a 55, 60 point shootout because the over when I talked about it was 44 and a half. The biggest question is whether he gets receiving work. He had five targets last week for 21 yards. Will that continue? It might, of course, but I think he's still a distant third for me out of the three. What about you? Distant third, but still someone I would use most likely. Yeah. Like I think he would be more of like a rotational piece versus like those guys are firm, firm, firmest of core plays. So, like across the two games, Ingram has a 40% rushing success rate. That's not bad. One of those games against Tampa. So, you know, that's actually pretty good in that situation. Seven targets across two games will actually feel decently confident that he would get some passing game work there. I think maybe they would filter in Taimont, Gumray, Divino, Zigbo, like those are the guys they could use. I would expect Ingram to have a pretty good role. If he's eating into Camara's role, I'd expect to eat into to really be like kind of a featured ish back here. Just for me, not as confident in, I know this sounds weird, but I'm not as confident in, you know, them as I am and potentially a Quilt McCoy let offense, but they're on the road. They're underdogs, you know, it's stuff like that. I think that that does factor in for me with Ingram. I would say he's like a 20% or as opposed to Ingram or, you know, earnest de earnest and Connor much higher. Yeah. The point I was going to bring up if you didn't to is like we've seen Mark Ingram snap rate be relevant whenever Alvin Camara has been playing these past few weeks. So, that's the kind of stuff that you want to see before going sort of all in. It's similar to a James Conner thing. So, people might be asking like what's the difference, but like James Conner had a role before Chase Edmonds got hurt. Mark Ingram has somewhat of a role. So, like we're not really sitting here thinking. Dearness Johnson had a role and we've seen him in that role in the featured back role too. Yeah. You know, as much as we can look back at like Kenneth Gainwell and say he had a role, he did, but it wasn't quite on par with like a Mark Ingram or James Conner. So, you know, there's still risk in assuming what's going to happen whenever a starting running back is out, but I feel for these three situations in general pretty solid, but I would still have Ingram third. But again, about 20, 25% for Ingram, I think that's probably where I would wind up come Sunday. I agree with that. Chris Godwin missed practice Wednesday with a foot issue. It sounds like he also has a legit shot not to play this week. Antonio Brown did not practice Wednesday either, but he is no longer in his walking boot. I feel like Brown's probably still going to sit. Godwin 50-50 maybe or so. So, how are you doing, Mike Evans with these two influx, and would you take a shot at Tyler Johnson if both were to sit? So, this is a spot where like for people who listen to us a lot would say, hey, well, they're losing relevant pass catchers that's going to downgrade their offensive efficiency, and it will. But we're still kind of looking at an offense led by a very, very good passer with Mike Evans, who can be a wide receiver one for just about any offense in football. So, it's not really the same as like taking Michael Thomas off the field for the Saints. So, it's lower for the offense overall, but not to the point where you just kind of divest entirely, especially in this spot, especially coming out of a buy. So, I'm going to be pretty high on Mike Evans sort of regardless because he's the healthiest of the options. But I would also consider Tyler Johnson because we're really strapped for value at receiver and anything I can kind of talk myself into I'm good with. So, plugging him in to an extended role would definitely be something I would be interested in this week. And similar to the Mark Ingram discussion, we've seen Tyler Johnson have a role even with just Antonio Brown out. Like if both Godwin and Brown were to play, that's a different discussion, but I don't think we'll get both at the very least. And Tyler Johnson like really good player in college. We know he's not some scrub. It sounds like Scotty Miller could potentially be back, but I would think that Johnson was still a pretty good role if Miller does return. That's like one path to failure for Johnson. So, Johnson would not like be a firm staple type guy for me, but I would definitely get there. He ran 26 routes against the Saints. He had 65 yards on six targets, had six targets, I think in that Los Angeles game too that Antonio Brown missed earlier on this year. He had no six target game at some point. So, he can get the job done. I would be okay going there, but Evans I think is the main guy here. I think the bigger implication of Godwin and Brown missing in terms of downgrade is downgrading Brady. I think that's Tom Brady, if you had everyone to be like an amazing, amazing play this week, I still think he's an option because he's Tom Brady. Like you said, they've got depth. They've got guys who can step in and fill in here, but like if you look at yards per route run and how efficient Brady's been targeting these guys, Godwin and Brown are the two guys he's been best when going to this year. So, I think it would be a downgrade for Brady, not to the point where I'm not considering him, but it does make me like a couple guys more than him. Where would Brady, if we assume they both sit? So, his salary is up there. That's a little bit of a problem, especially whenever Tom Brady does not run the ball. You need him to throw for four touchdowns and like at least 350 yards to have a ceiling game for Brady, which like he can do, but that's just the type of player who we don't really target. And in the research I've done when I tried to improve upon my range of outcomes for players, basically the least likely players to kind of hit projections or have big games are just the the quarterbacks who are projected for like 20 to 25 fandal points solely from passing with like no rushing. And it makes sense because if they if touchdown variance just doesn't go their way, if they don't really rack up that 400th passing yard, there's no other way for them to produce. So, I still would like Brady, but it would be very, very hard to rank Brady over Dak Prescott in a fantastic game at 8100. So even with the savings there like it's it's just going to be like Dak week. Yep. Dak, Herbert, I think they're both above Brady with the injuries, but like Brady's still consideration for sure. This one doesn't sound super serious yet, but Keenan Allen did his practice Wednesday with a knee injury. I'm guessing it's maintenance, but let's just talk about it here quickly. We'll talk about them under the assumption Allen plays in the bookmaker section, but just hypothetically, if he sits, how would this alter your view of the offense? So, give me your thoughts first here. I know it's weird, but I mean, I'll just go to Mike Evans a lot. I think that the needle mover on the offense is Mike Williams. I think that Allen being out would hurt Justin Herbert. I don't think it'd be enough for an impact my view of Mike, Mike Williams. What about you? Yeah, you've been talking about Mike Williams a lot this this week anyway. This is confirmation bias. I should use Mike Williams. It feels like that's that's how we're trending. Boy, is that enough to downgrade the whole offense? Would we bump up Echler? Well, he operates in the same kind of field, I guess, as Allen does. Maybe his target projection goes up. Yeah. So maybe. Yeah. Not a significant amount, but I could see giving his floor a slight boost. Sure. This isn't I don't know. This is like my my only concern with the value backs is you can't play the value backs and the studs. Yeah. And we're looking at a spot where like Austin Eckler could have. He could be the RB one pretty easily this week. I would say one, two, three, four, five, six guys could be the RB one. Yeah, that's probably and they're all 1000 or higher. Yeah. Like that's a bit scary. The the because we're talking about these value backs and then it's just such as reversal. This is the thing I talk about every single Monday as we look at this slate and you say we have Najee Harris in a great spot. We have Jonathan Taylor in a great spot potentially Christian McCaffrey, Austin Eckler getting bumped up from a target share standpoint perhaps like now let me play Mark Ingram. Like that's the kind of changes I'm trying not to make too much and I don't be stupid because like during this Johnson, right, his workload is going to be so much greater and bankably greater than the salary that's different. James Connor under salary based on what we saw last week, but like the Mark Ingram that Devon single Terry's like if we get exactly to squeeze out single Terry. Yeah, although he was he wasn't that bad on the first two weeks. Yes, he was. Are we talking bad from a fantasy perspective or bad from a non-van is what which where we go in here because I can give takes on both. Give me your takes on both. He's bad. There we go. Easy. Sam Darnold sounds like he'll have to sit this week due to a broken shoulder actually sounds like more like a month. Also, they're bringing Cam Newton to talk, which is kind of fun. But for now, PJ Walker is probably going to start. We'll talk more about them in the trend section. James or Jamal Williams, this practice on Wednesday. That's extra concerning because he they're kind of a buy. Deandre Swift would obviously get a an absurd role. William sits, but we saw them collapse against the Eagles at home. And they're now facing the Steelers on the road. So how would you balance Swift's amazing workload versus a ridiculously tough matchup and a bad offense? I mean, I have loved you under Swift this year. The salary is really good at 7,300. But I think at a certain point, you have to weigh in offensive expectations and offensive output. I'm expected offensive output. So I think that this would be a week where I would just probably cross off Swift, not because it's so bad that you can't justify playing him, but more that you can justify playing a lot of other backs instead of him. So he might wind up being like a very, very contrarian play with the potential to get those double digit targets if they're trailing from the get go. But he's not going to be, I mean, if I had to rank him out at value, he like, and I haven't done this yet, but he might be outside the top 10 at running back because of how many running backs we have. Like he gets amazing usage and we love his usage. But even with that amazing usage, he's still at 88.8 yards per game this year. Like he's not efficient. Like that's less than Lombardi Lenny in his four games. Since Giovanni Bernardo came back, that's less than James Robinson, who we're not going to really consider. That's less than Cordero in his current role. That's less than Zeke. It's less than, it's almost Devon Singletary. I was going to say Devon Singletary had 85.5 yards in his first two weeks with like a majority workload. Yeah. He had 80 in the one game with no moss at all. So, you know, it's not great. I think I'm okay. Missing out. And like that could be a bad process, but like I've got really good plays elsewhere. I'll take those. I'll say this, Singletary, 77 rushing yards in weeks one and two on average. Next-gen stats anticipated him for an expected 163. 55.6 per game. So, he outperformed there. No, good for him. On the other side, Chase Claypool likely out due to a toe injury. We'll talk about the Steelers in the trend section. Both Damien Harris and Armandre Stevenson missed practice Wednesday due to their concussions. If they sit, would you have any interest in Brandon Bolden or JJ Taylor? And how about either Harris or Stevenson if one of them is able to play? I feel like this is too many, too many names in the same backfield. If you're asking me if the top two were out, would you play three or four? Like if it's not, are you going to play number three? Like, it's like, there's not a D. Ernest Johnson situation. Like we know he's the three. So, I can't get there. I hate this offense. You made a case, not to bring it up, but like, you made a solid case for Damien Harris last week. Like, no, no, no, but like- Oh, I deserve this. Keep it coming. It made sense. She's very mad. Those were dog treats taken out of her mouth because I use Damien Harris lineups. Yeah. So, no, I can't. I'm not going to play any of these guys. Now, in season long, like if you need to plug in, sure, but this is very different on a loaded running backs lead. I agree, as does Rosa. Zach Moss did not practice Wednesday due to a concussion. He might be able to play, which would make Devon Singletary the starter here. We talked about Singletary on Monday, but that was before we knew D. Ernest Johnson. It would be a value here. So, where are you at on Singletary now at 6,000 if Moss does sit? So, it's a good overall matchup. There are massive favorites on the road, but you just, we've seen Devon Singletary with a majority workload in the past, and it has not really led too much at all. I think you and I might be the most, like, anti-Devan Singletary podcast there is. So, we want yardage upside. We want touchdown equity. He doesn't really have that. He doesn't have either. Yeah. So, again, I'll say, like, I'll play them in season long where I really need to play, but other than that, you can't really, I just don't think you can justify it with this amazing running backs. We've had running back slates where we've had like two or three options, and it's like, if that was the same slate, sure. Sure. Where could you even rank him, like, on a 30th? So, I have my floor ceiling projections, which have slowed my computer down. So, some of the questions Jim asked me, I was a little laggy there, but that was because the computer, and I couldn't quite hear Jim, but so I have floor ceiling projections, which looks at basically the odds that you hit a certain value threshold versus the times that you fall short of that. Even at the 6,000 range, Singletary is 20th. It's usually easier to out perform at lower salaries. So, I can't imagine really playing much Devon Singletary, if any, probably not. I wanted to like make the case for him, like, because like, I'm very dismissive, and then I want to like check my biases, because like, I just hate watching him. But in the one game without Moss this year, 80 yards in scrimmage, 20% red zone share. I wanted to expand that and look back to last year and see, okay, am I being too harsh on him? And there were three games last year with Singletary and no Moss. He averaged 22 adjusts to opportunities per game. That's not great, you know, in terms of like prioritizing them. 77 yards per game, that is equivalent to like, Antonio Gibson this year, and a 27% red zone share, which is equivalent to Antonio Gibson this year. So basically, he's been Antonio Gibson. And like, I'm not going to use Antonio Gibson. So, I think that that's kind of, you know, where I hang up there. I also think like, Michael Carter's matchup sucks, but like, I feel like I'd rather use Michael Carter to the Devon Singletary. What about that? Um, boy, if we're saying that, we're throwing offensive expectations just right out the window. So I know, but like, you can only do so much. Like, you can only drag a parachute so far. He's got a parachute on his back. That's what I'm thinking here. I don't know what that, I honestly didn't know what that meant. I do have Carter rated out higher. Pretty much guaranteed receiving work. It's a really tough matchup, but I don't know if that means I'll play Michael Carter either. Where does he rank for you among these value backs? But now that we're talking about them all? I would say he's like, closer to Ingram than he is to Johnson and Connor. Yeah, I can see myself getting some, but if I don't get there, it's fine. I'm not going to regret it. So I don't know, are we talking about the bills at all specifically? No. Well, we're talking about some player picks with them, but I guess you're talking about Dawson Knox right now about that. Sure. I just, yeah. Yeah. Talk to me. Okay. So Dawson Knox practiced yesterday. It seems like he's able to return this week. Are you in on Dawson Knox $5,800? And what's your view of the bills here against the jets? Okay. That's going to be my question basically to you. There we go. I'm always skeptical with players returning from injury and it's probably a negative for me. I think that's probably where you get a lot of leverage, but we have a ton of other options at tight end. And I do think I'm going to need to save some salary whenever I can, even if I'm going pretty heavy at deer and a strong son, because the difference then is like, Hey, if I'm spending down on someone like Pat Freyermuth or Dan Arnold at tight end, that could be the difference between like a mid 6,000 receiver who I don't really like much this week and back up into the 7,000s. And that's very appealing to me. So I don't think I'm going to play a whole lot of Dawson Knox this week. I would rather play Noah Phant, I think at 57. And I know I said, like, I don't need to prioritize Kyle Pitts, but I want to stack that game. And I think that Kyle Pitts just has just looking at this slate. He's the guy who can really put up a big game at tight end. So yeah, I think I'll probably be light on that mid range. It's either going to be pits or like down toward the 5,000 range for me this week. Oh, what about you with Knox? Yeah, I think that that's where I'm at too, just because like I can feel better about the target projections for other guys. And like one of the big pitches of Knox is touchdown equity, but like the bills are kind of weird right now. And he hasn't had more than 50 yards in any game except for one this year. So you are just banking on touchdown. I can get a touchdown at better yardage expectation from Noah Phant, who is lower salaried. I think the Pat Fryer Muth is infinitely better from a overall play perspective than Dawson Knox. Dan Arnold is very, very defensible at $5,100. So yeah, I think I'm okay. Not getting there. What about like Manny? Manny 63, we talked about Stefan Diggs and his struggles. He's $7,900. Where are you with those two guys? Um, it's all it feels like it feels like with Stefan Diggs that there's a fear of missing out still, but he doesn't even quite have the workload of like the that can lead to that game where he just dominates now, watch him go for like 180 and two. But because he has the talent to do it, but just the usage hasn't quite been there. If you look at this team in their two post buy weeks, let me sort this real quick. It's Cole Beasley at 28% of targets and I don't think we're using Cole Beasley really. Stefan Diggs at 17% and Manny Sanders is at 14%. But with Manny, he's got 100 air yards per game and just 30 33 receiving yards per game, three and a half downfield targets per game. The opportunity better than Stefan Diggs. Yeah, like the role that has been there for for Emmanuel Sanders for anyone who I don't know. I feel like we call him Manny, but sometimes people don't know that who we're talking about, but one person on Twitter who yeah, I don't know. I've heard it from other people. But yeah, Emmanuel Sanders has a really good expected workload or at least kind of the best expected workload or expected fandal point output over the past two weeks. So I would rather just play Emmanuel Sanders at 63, especially with value being so scarce at receiver. I don't think I can go to Stefan Diggs at 79. I still feel like Stefan Diggs might be chalky. He's been chalky frequently. I see the case for it, but the case is really banking on a reversal of what we've seen from a usage standpoint. Which could happen because Stefan Diggs is an Uber talented player. So we could see a reversal. That's very much a thing that could happen, but I'd rather just take Manny at 63. I think that Manny's a really solid play. That spread is tightening. It was 13 and a half. It's now 12 probably because I bet the Jets, you know, market mover. And I talked about that one too on Market Movers. Look at us. I think that I'd rather go Manny there. It's pretty easy for me to get there. He is a standout in terms of workload in that range. I think that Jerry Judy is fine. I'm definitely okay with Judy. Devonte Smith is there. The matchup's pretty difficult, but he's there. They don't want to throw. I think that Manny is my favorite guy in the low 6,000 range. Manny, Judy, Devonte, Jarv. Is that how you rank them? Yeah. I don't think I'm going to get... I've been recommended Devonte Smith for years now. It feels like years already. But with the fact that they're just running the ball so much, I don't think I quite get there this week. I think Judy works though. We can talk more about the Broncos later on. Let's go to Bookmaker Info though, taking a look at what they are saying for this week. The highest total of the week is in Dallas to the Cowboys and Falcons. It's in the 55, the Cowboys favored by 9, which is not super close, but having the high total there does help a lot. Like the Falcons implied total is still very high. Plus, Yaboi, Matt Ryan, balling out Brandon. You called it. It's happening. Michael Gallup might be back for the Cowboys, which could muddy their target. Muddy to begin with, but how are you doing this game? I love this game from an overstand point. I think this one I was trying to find. It might be down. It's a 50.5. That's fine because I like the over in this one. We have the Cowboys who are one of the easiest teams to stack. It's hard to nail the right stack, but we know who we want to play at least. So that's very fun. That is extremely valuable in DFS is to know which players have the ability to erupt. I'm in on all of the Cowboys, basically. As for the Falcons, I don't think I can quite justify too much Cordero Patterson unless it's game stacks. His salary is up to $7,800, so I'm much more likely to go with Kyle Pitts. I can view him as a... I'm having thoughts here. I don't think I could do a double tight end lineup, but no. But Pitts plus, what's the difference between Kyle... A big benefit of Pitts is not having to use another tight end, though. That's true. I was just trying to think if you just consider him a receiver. Yeah, but I just don't want to use tight end if I can avoid it. If I can have a no tight end lineup by having Pitts in there, I'd rather have that. I think maybe one thing that I have glossed over is how much better is Kyle Pitts than other tight ends within this game and then compared to the whole slate? Do we need to be prioritizing him like cash game level priority? No, because I think Friar Mooth is so good that it's hard for me to say prioritize, but Pitts might be number two on that consideration. I think that Friar Mooth... I would just probably lock in Friar Mooth and just take the savings, but I think that Pitts is the number two consideration. If you told me right now that, hey, if Friar Mooth Bust don't use him, I'd probably go to Pitts as my second option then. Yeah, so I think I'm going to have to jot down to make sure I have enough Kyle Pitts, though, because I love this game. And frankly, I guess if I build our game stacks, I'm probably going to play Kyle Pitts. Because what are your thoughts on Cordero Patterson as the resident Cordero Patterson expert? I would say my distribution of game stacks would be 70, 30 in favor of Pitts. It's just going those two, no one else. I know Alamadez Ikeas had two touchdowns last week, but no. Three targets? These are not a whole lot of routes, either. Russell Gage is Dustle Gage. I think to me it's just Pitts and Patterson. And the good thing is when we're talking about game stacks, you're assuming that both sides here contribute. And if you assume the Falcons do work on offense, the likelihood that Pitts goes off is very high. So I would say to me, in my Dallas lineups where I want to bring back, I have 70% Pitts, 30% Patterson. I think that's the way I would play things there, personally. Yeah, I'm having a hard time envisioning getting up to, well, I guess within the game stack, sure. But I don't know if I'm going to play Cordero Patterson outside of it. Yeah. So I guess that's true. Yeah, I was going to say overall, I'm definitely not going to be there with Cordero, but within the game stacks, then you got to bring it back with something. Yeah, for the most part. Yeah, you do. As far as the Cowboys go, I love Dak. I think Dak is potentially the best quarterback on the slate. I know he struggled last week. He did struggle. It was not a, he did struggle, but I don't care. It's Dak. I have a lot of faith in Dak Prescott bouncing back. Where do you go in terms of stacking Dak? Because I kind of think Zeke might be the best stack again at $8,000 with him. I am, like, you were talking about how the target shares are spread out, but we can still feel good about them. The reason we can still feel good about them is because it's not an eagle situation where Jalen Hurts may do well while none of his pass catchers do. Like, Dak's pass catchers have a lot of upside, despite the muted target shares, because they're very good. And this offense is very good. It's a different situation. So I agree with you in that sense. I would say Zeke, then Lam, then Amari, then Gallup. Where are you at as far as the stacking candidates here? Oh, you said Zeke, Lam, Amari, Gallup. Yeah. I think I'd have to agree with that. I would say that the reason I like CD-Lam more, even at a higher salary, is that, yes, Cooper's had better results in their two post-buy games, but CD-Lam, the higher expected Fandal point output, 162 ariads per game to 124 for Amari Cooper. So they're still amazing. Those workloads are still amazing. The target shares are just 23 and 21%, but the juice on those is extremely good. So they're each equivalent of 11 and a half targets. Like, instead of the nine and eight and a half, if you account for the downfield, the red zone work that they get, we're looking at like double-digit targets per game from these guys that come out of the buy. So you would expect that maybe to scale back a little bit with Gallup, but they throw it to other receivers anyway. So I don't think that it's that much of a, it's probably just a wash in the end. So, but I'm big on CD-Lam this week and I love Amari Cooper. So this is, I think, pretty easily the top game for me. It feels really easy to stack as well. Yeah, I agree. Where are you at with Gallup? Will you use him in non-game stacks or adjusting game stacks? I'm not 100% sure. Is he... He's been practicing this October 26th. That is why I have a decent amount of confidence in him. All right. What's that? I didn't know that. Your birthday? Oh, yeah. Happy late birthday. Thanks, man. So I, we love Michael Gallup on this podcast. We need some, we need some value 5,500 in this game. I think that I would be lying if I said that didn't appeal to me. So if we get word that he's expected to go back to his usual role, that's enough for me within this game to be big on Michael Gallup. Yeah. I think the fact that he's been practicing for as long as he has been says to me, he should come back to a full role. I think the Cowboys are taking kind of like the long view here, both with the way they handle back with the calf issue. And now with Gallup, I think they understand that they're like a deep playoff team. So to me, if they're going to roll them out there, probably with a decent amount of confidence. So I would say Gallup grades out pretty well from that perspective. Okay. Another game with a high total and tight spread is in Los Angeles for the Chargers and the Vikings total is 53. The Chargers are three point favorites. It seems as if all the key pieces here outside of Keenan Allen are healthy and Allen might be healthy too. So where does this one gray out for you in terms of stagging? Is it two behind Dallas versus Atlanta? Well, I could tell you actually have some, some, some actual game rankings. Oh boy. Yeah. It's number two for me. Okay. Which I would have figured anyway. I would have ranked it there subjectively, but good pace, good pass rates here, good implied team totals, the heavy over under obviously. I mean, I don't think we'd be alone in saying that this is a good game to stack. But I think that it's still second behind Atlanta and Dallas for me. Where is it for you? Second? Second, pretty easily second two. I think that like, and I would say it's like, it's in the same tier as the Dallas Atlanta game as well. If I were to rank it in terms of tiers, I think it's in the top tier. And then there's a gap down to the second tier. Yeah. I was going to say, I've put them in the same tier so long as we make a pretty sizable tier break to, I guess, what, well, number three is probably the game we'll talk about next. So what's your favorite stack from this one? It's Justin Herbert with Mike Williams and then Daven Cook coming back. Cook has been accused of some pretty terrible things this week. So keep that in mind. But just like a daily fantasy perspective, I think because it's a team that really struggles against the rush, the Vikings won around the football. The role is very good. That led itself to using him for this week as like awkward and terrible as that feels. I think that that does work out well for using him here. I think that Herbert is a very good quarterback play, possibly second behind Dak. And I think that with the Vikings led up the fourth highest ADOT among all defenses this year, it's Mike Williams week. He is $6,900. Nice. I haven't seen a ton of buzz for him yet this week. So I'm kind of hoping he doesn't like it steamed up a little bit. He might if Keenan sits. So I kind of keen in place from that perspective to keep the roster rate on Williams in check. But I think that a Herbert, Mike Williams, Daven Cook stack is like border like that might be my favorite game stack of the week, even though this is not my favorite game to stack. That probably sounds weird, but I think I think that's where I go. It makes sense to me because those guys all have crazy ceilings. Yeah. And as much as I like the Atlanta and Dallas game, you still have to guess right on is it is Atlanta is a Cooper? What does Gallup do? You know, does Kyle Pitts have the big yardage that we've seen from him? Does Cordero score? If this game really just kind of goes off, it's most likely flowing through Daven Cook. And especially if there is no Keenan Allen, then through Mike Williams, who I do think people will just kind of be low on because the results haven't been there. And that's not, I mean, it's to be expected because of how much he overperformed to start the season. We did talk Monday about his role being worse. Just in terms of target share, now he's been injured. He's faced some tougher matchups. So it's a spot where you got to figure out what's winning out for you. Is it that his role is different and they view him differently? Or is it more that it's just kind of he was great scaled back a bit and now he's good for like a second half surge? Yep. And I think that to me, I lean more towards the matchups like defense is focusing on him. I just don't know what the Vikings have the personnel to shut him down because Harris and Smith tested positive on Sunday and needs 10 days to get cleared from code if my understanding is correct on him. And then Patrick Peterson still banged up. So like, I think the personnel here is going to allow Mike Williams to do really well. Where do you view Echler relative to cook? So this is a little awkward because I like this game second most, but they're not necessarily my favorite overall plays because I love Jonathan Taylor and Najee Harris this week. Seems like everyone's going to be very in on Najee. But we also have Christian McCaffrey in the fold. So I think if I'm ranking just the two of them, it's probably going to be Dalvin over Echler. But I think if we take Keenan Allen out, I might bump up Echler with an assumption that he gets extra creative targets as a result. I think I prefer a little bit of a cop out. Yeah. No, that makes sense. I think if we're down just because like, he's at 28 adjust opportunities per game in his healthy games, Echler is at 24 yardage favors cook 119 to 100.5. And then the red zone also favors him. Expectations for the offense are higher for the chargers because they're at home. Their favorites, that stuff doesn't matter. But I think the role favors Dalvin. So I would go with him there. Any final thoughts for you on this game? Talk to me about the Vikings pass catchers. I used Thelon last week and I regretted it. So that's where I'm at. I think Conklin works. I'm okay with him at 53. Very much prefer Friar Muth prefer probably Arnold as well. But like, I think that for game stacks I can get to Conklin. Then it's Jefferson. I'm a little bit lower on the pass catchers because of the style of defense chargers plays is just not conducive to big plays. So I think that's why I prefer. That's another reason why I prefer cook a lot. Yeah. Now it's easy to say that we like Jefferson, but how heavy do you think you'll be? Is he game stacks only? Cause he is for me. It's a really tough matchup overall. So he is, his salary is $7,500. I prefer Deontay Johnson over him. It's a really bad game, but his role is absurd. Mike Evans preferred. Amari. I think he's in the same plane as Amari in land. A.J. Brown 76 tough matchup for him too, but like, not the best game, but I think he might get downgraded there just because of the matchup. So like for non game stacks, I'm not sure how high I'll be on him, which, which stinks. I love Justin Jefferson. It's just right. It's, you know, it's very easy. I think breaking down a slate to say, Oh yeah, we love Justin Jefferson in this game, but like the names around him are really good. Yeah. So that's, that's, that was the one thing I wanted to point out is I don't anticipate really any Justin Jefferson outside of game stacks just because I prefer other, other options right around him. I think that's fair. There's still some uncertainty about the Packers and Seahawks game, but bookmakers are viewing this as if Rogers will play. So let's just kind of assume he does. Total is 49 and a half. That is down a half point from open Green Bay favorite by three and a half. Aaron Rogers needs to be cleared Saturday to go. He cannot be cleared before Saturday. And there's a chance that he doesn't like, let's assume that he does go here. Russell Wilson is good to go. What's your view of this game? I, I like it, but in my model likes this game to go over, but there are pace concerns, pass rate concerns, general health concerns with the quarterbacks. I know Aaron Rogers said last week he felt great, but then he said this week that he'd have to test and see how he felt. So I don't know if he's feeling any ill effects of, of COVID-19. Russ obviously coming off the surgery. We don't know what the effectiveness will be. This also feels like the kind of game that could be a little bit more popular than I would like to be on it. But again, we have like the easiest sort of game stacks possible, where if we get both healthy quarterbacks, we have, Russ obviously at 75 would be very much in play for me. But then we have Devontae, DK Metcalf, and then Tyler Lockett. And you don't really use a whole lot other than that, aside from maybe Aaron Jones anyway. Well, I think that's the fun thing about it is like, I know how to stack it. And I know very well how to stack it. It's very easy to get there. I think that Metcalf, Lockett are among the best receiver plays in the slate, which is another reason why I might be lower on Jefferson. Metcalf $8,000, Lockett 71. I'd expect Lockett to be pretty popular due to the salary. Which is why I think that I might want to pay up to be contrarian and go with Metcalf over Lockett tournaments. For a cash game, I think Lockett works really well. Definitely okay going there. But for a tournament, I probably want to get to Metcalf at $8,000. So like a Devontae Metcalf stack, that's pretty fun. Really, really excited about that one. Because you imagine a hybrid of Devontae, DK Metcalf. Like if you gave DK Metcalf like the technical abilities of Devontae, I don't want to imagine that brand. Is that just like Terral Owens basically? Tio's amazing. He never gets enough respect. Yeah, that's actually probably pretty fair. He never gets enough respect in the all time. Probably pretty fair honestly. Question for you is MDS. Marquez Veldes-Scantlin came back last week, didn't run a ton of routes, but it was also his first game back. Now gets Aaron Rodgers, had an okay roll, his first three games before the injury. Where are we at? Yeah, it was also not the best game to look at for just general usage. I mean, it's good to see him out there for sure with the 54% route rate. We know that he's going to get Pepper Downfield whenever he's out there with Aaron Rodgers slinging them the ball. Seattle is third in yards per target allowed against Downfield passes. That's not what you love to see. And again, this goes back to like pace and pass rate concerns where the play volume is the real path to failure for each side here. So I think in stacks, sure. I don't know if I'd play Aaron Rodgers, but I'd be much more open to playing Russell Wilson at 75. So he could be part of that if that's what it takes to build like a Russ DK stack. Would you consider a Russ DK and Lockett stack or no? It's really the only team aside from maybe Dallas, where you just play Lamb and Cooper together. We don't do a whole lot of double stacking just because for obvious reasons, it's, it doesn't pay off very often in terms of like, you know, hitting the true, like true, true outcome. Yeah. And Fan Duel's, you know, a bit more touched on dependent than other sites, which means that every time Tyler Lockett scores DK mech F does not. Also, those two specifically don't tend to both go off in the same game. I would say though that like, given the percentage of high leverage targets that they get on the team, aka 100%, it's more viable for them than anyone else. I probably wouldn't personally, but like, you know, on Fan Duel specifically again, you know, with that caveat, I probably wouldn't, but like I'd consider it. Sure. Yeah, it's just trying to think outside the box because there really are, there are two games we love. Then from there, you kind of got to talk yourself into some certain things. Again, with Seattle Green Bay, I'm not saying like it's a terrible game, but there are really that there's that path to failure. Yeah. And then from there, like the the best game might have been Tampa Bay and Washington, but like that's got its own concerns. So I think if you're trying to think outside the box, it's at least being a little bit more open to, Hey, maybe Russ comes back through his four touchdowns to each go to DK and lock it. But again, this is really the, the hyper focus team that we would actually even consider that with. Just welcome Russ back. Like, let's go. I'm so happy that he's back. It is a blessing to all of us. Let's move now to our trends discussion. Starting off with Washington's offense, because we're interested in Mike Evans. We are, I mentioned at least in some interest in Leonard Burnett, maybe that's just me, potentially just me, but like I'm interested there. And I think it's worth looking at a bring back because Terry McClory gets good usage. We might get Logan Thomas back here. So what are you seeing when looking at Washington's offense when they've had toughish matchups? Yeah. So I mean, we have those games we want to stack. The three games we discussed, I think this is probably the game that's fourth or even possibly in the same tier as Seattle and Green Bay. But we obviously have to be flexible with what the Buccaneers are going to offer us based on their health. So I wanted to consider what Washington might be able to do with a very tough adjusted passing matchup. The Buccaneers are ranked sixth and adjusted past defense, according to number fires per play metrics. Next Gen stats has them ninth. Next Gen stats also has them 25th and pressure rate, which I'll touch upon later. But Taylor Heineke's played a lot of tough past defenses this year. So it won't be his first. It'll be his fourth start against a top 10 adjusted past defense based on number fires metrics. In his three to date, he's been pretty mediocre, a minus 0.12. Passing net expected points per drop back, which is 0.15 points worse per play than expected. That comes with 250 passing yards, 1.3 touchdowns per game with a 9% sack rate. Now, two of those three starts against tough defenses were also against top 12 pressure rates, but the lone comparable defense, which would be Green Bay, which is a tough overall adjusted past defense, but not necessarily an awesome pressure rate. Heineke still struggled to minus 0.20 passing net expected points per drop back. Again, league average is about a 0.13 this year. It's not what you want to see. He did run a lot for yardage. So the fantasy point output was fine, but the passing not really there. The point, of course, is not that I'm trying to talk myself into Taylor Heineke, but rather just sort of questioning whether Heineke can do enough to support an offense to make this game viable, make this game relevant, and have some bring back. So even if you scale to just the top half adjusted past defenses that Heineke's faced, he's 0.12 points per play worse than expected. One thing does jump out though in three games with Logan Thomas against top half past defenses. The team did throw to Terry McLaurin on 27% of their targets. McLaurin has 42% of the air guards in those games, 3.3 downfield targets per game, 0.7 red zone targets per game in that sample. Ricky seals Jones, depending on the Logan Thomas situation, 17% target share, 3 red zone targets. So I think we can get a tight end out of this game if we really feel that we see enough from Washington. But the rushing matchup is too tough, so you would very easily assume there's some extra passing volume. I think the overall question is, and I'm not sure if I'm sold on this, is, is there enough here for us to bring back these stacks with Terry McLaurin? The workload in theory should really be there, but this game also could just be gross. The Buccaneers probably can just run the ball if they want, keep it a little bit closer to the vest, but that's not what we've seen from them. So what are your thoughts overall here with Washington? Is there enough here? And does it really sour you on the Tampa Bay side? It doesn't sour me the Tampa Bay side, but like, I'm not sure there's enough because the typical pitch on Terry McLaurin is that he gets great work relative to guys in his tier, but this week we get Tyler Lockett at the exact same salary, like same workload, better team, better game, slightly better game. You're right about the way you tier that out. Michael Pittman is 72, really, really good matchup, pretty good role for him. Keenan, despite his faults, has had a good role. This year, Mike Evans 74, Deontay Johnson 74, then you get into like the, you know, the lambs and those guys. So I think it's less about like, I don't know, I think to me, I can get his workload in a better situation and better offense. That's kind of the hang up for me. Yeah, I don't, I mean, better situation, like kind of because I would put this game in the second tier with, with Green Bay and Seattle. So I'm a little bit more inclined just to go there, especially if I'm just going to play Mike Evans. I want to feel like Mike Evans is going to be throwing the ball in the second half in the fourth quarter. So for him to really kind of go nuts, I think I would want to bring it back. McLaurin makes a lot of sense from that standpoint, but McLaurin's also not going to be a one-off, whereas a Tyler Lockett very much would be a one-off. Even to Michael Pittman, I'm going to talk about the Coltson a little bit. He has a really good case. So I wanted to see more here from Washington. And now that we do the bookmaker stuff first, we're taking the best offenses off the off the board for the trends. And so we're looking, and I think there's, there's value in looking into something and not having a strong takeaway. I think that's kind of where I am here. If anything, the takeaway is probably not to expect too much and maybe bone myself down on this game, even though I kind of have a third right now. Yeah. I think it's actually a tier behind Seattle Green Bay personally, just because I have faith that both offenses will score in that game, unless Jordan won't start so much case, you know, but like, I think it's a tier below personally. So you talk about a bad offense. I'm going to talk about a worse one and talk about the Panthers because I want to use Christian McCaffrey this week. That's obvious because he's 9,000, which may be the lowest salary he has the entire year, but the situation around him is really bad. And that should impact things quite a bit. Specifically, it's the health of the Panthers offense. PJ Walker are likely to start despite the fact that Cam Newton sounds like he's going to sign now with the Panthers. Probably not going to start this week. PJ Walker probably start here. Our earliest sample on Walker ain't great. He has played in relief with Donald three times this year. He has completed three out of 15 passes in that time. 3515 would be a bad batting average. It is a worse completion percentage, but none of those were starts where you got reps in practice before the game, which he will get this week. And I think it's unfair to judge guys based on what they do in relief. Walker did get a start last year for the Panthers when Teddy Bridgewater was out. That's probably the better comp. But even if we look back at last year, Walker was at negative 0.28 passing that expected points per dropback. Darnell this year is at negative 0.06. So a gap of 0.22, which is a lot. Walker is at negative 0.36 in his time at the Panthers. So Darnell has been bad. It's possible things get even worse with Walker. And that's not the only injury they've got here. They're starting center and they're starting left tackle are both on IR now as well, which means the Panthers are rolling out backups at quarterback center and left tackle against what my number showed to be the second best defense in football. They say the Cardinals should be favored by 14, which makes a 10 and a half point spread even more gram. So I want to be on McCaffrey this week. I want to be there. My worry is that it'll be a lot of yardage without the potential for multiple touchdowns. That's less of a concern for Najee Harris, Jonathan Taylor, et cetera, et cetera. So how are you viewing McCaffrey? And I didn't even want to ask about that Panthers. I'm not considering any of them. But how are you viewing McCaffrey given the chaos mode this offense is in right now? Yeah, I mean, DJ Moore has a really good role, but does not. Yeah, maybe maybe he's like a Terry McLaurin comp for this week. I have more faith in Heineken than I do. I was going to say I'd rather play McLaurin, but like, you know, both of these guys were DJ Moore's salary was like 7,900 points this year. It comes down to McCaffrey. I don't feel particularly great. I think the thing you sell yourself on with McCaffrey is that he's played on bad offenses before and he's produced regardless. That's kind of what you're selling yourself on. And this week, you have the ability to bring it back pretty easily. I think Connor McCaffrey stacks work. If you view it that way, then you would say would I roster both of these guys at 8,000 with all their potential concerns? Or for Connor, like the potential workload? Yeah, probably or 8,575, if that's what you want to kind of split it into. So from that standpoint, it works. I was really kind of assuming I would be locking in Christian McCaffrey to our head to head and not overthinking it. At this point, I don't know if I'm quite there. Now that we have Dierna Johnson, James Connor, and then probably one of Najee Harris or Jonathan Taylor would be like my cash game core against you. So it feels really strange. And I could be kicking myself, but I think there might be better options than Christian McCaffrey this week. And that just feels wrong because there's never a better option than Christian McCaffrey from a workload standpoint. So you mentioned he's been a bad offense. I did look back to 2019 when Will Greer started, because Will Greer lost the job to PJ Walker. So it actually was a worse in theory quarterback. And he had like 24 and 19 points in those two games, but he had like 15 targets in both because they were chasing that record. If you remember like back in 2019, they wanted to get that record. I'm not going to projection for 15 targets. So it's tough. I agree with you, where I very much prefer everyone around, which sinks. I'd love McCaffrey. Yeah, at 16.75 point implied team total, that's the lowest on the main slate. I had them as the worst projected offense on the entire slate. And once I adjust for PJ Walker in Darnold, below the Jets. Yeah, it's Carolina, the Jets Detroit. And we talked about how we didn't want to use DeAndre Swift at $7,300. Well, I mean, I love DeAndre Swift, but McCaffrey is in his own tier between that. But like, I mean, okay, you say, all right, let's call their implied team total seven points that are 17 points. That's seven is appropriate. Keep it that way. That's gonna say, maybe I'll leave it there. So like in theory, two touchdowns and a field goal, basically. Yeah, McCaffrey should have a good chance that if they do score twice, it's scoring at least one of those. But if they score once, and it doesn't go to him, like, he can still get the 20 Fandall points. He was in the perfect line of twice with no touchdowns last year or two years ago. It's like he can do it, but so are we being too low anyway? Like, aren't they gonna, they're going to be trailing, aren't they going to throw him the ball? If it were just PJ Walker being out, I'd be okay. But it's PJ Walker plus Cam Irving plus Matt Paradis. And that's enough. We're on plus a good defense. Yes. On the road should be 14 point dogs. Also, Kyler says he feels good. So let's rock, baby. Okay. Arizona minus 10 and a half. Let's rock. Let's go to your second trend. Taking a look at Indianapolis facing the Jaguars this week. Big favorites, which is appropriate, but like good offense, bad defense. What do you see here? Yeah. So I wanted to, like, I mean, look into something pertaining to the Colts and one thing I wanted to look at was their pace while leading because the anticipation should be that they are leading. They have the fourth highest implied team total of the week. So you want to look closely at them as 10 and a half point favorites against the Jaguars, which is obviously a good spot. Unless the Jaguars are like able to, you know, stop good teams now, or maybe some, maybe some things aren't as good as assumption. I don't know. But presumably, of course, the Colts play from ahead. So I wanted to see what their pace looked like to see if we can anticipate enough play volume to go with, I don't think anything would really get me off of Jonathan Taylor this week, but Michael Pittman is a name that I'm very drawn to in such a good spot with a really good workload. So I at least wanted to see if there was enough juice there. And of course, you know, you always want to see if there's viability for a bring back. The Colts this season ranked 31st in non-garbage time pace, which accounts for offensive passes and rushes whenever your pre-snap win probability was between 20 and 80%, according to NFL Fasters data. They're 14th in pass rate in such situation. So, you know, league average pass rate, but they like to slow it down when they've led by at least seven in the first half, which is obviously a pretty small sample for all teams. Their pass rate still 60%, their pace is about the same. So the data really shows that they can milk it later in the game and turn to the run, but they're so pretty aggressive early in games, even when playing from ahead. So the first half, first three quarters still should probably be decent, and that kind of keeps Michael Pittman on the radar for me. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are league average in pace and pass rate in non-garbage time situations. And they're fifth in pace when trailing by at least seven with another above average pass rate in that split. So, we can see like the Jaguars still trying to be feisty. The Colts not really just taking the foot off the gas in the second quarter, even if they are ahead. So that brings me to their side of the ball. Of course it starts with Jonathan Taylor, 9,400 with that salary tied with Najee Harris. I think you're going to have to just kind of decide between one of the two. It's going to be hard to play both, but you probably can do it, especially if you run it back with Yarnes Johnson in the flex. Taylor has played at least 64% of the snaps in each game since week six, a sample in which he has a 54% red zone opportunity share, easily leading all running backs. It's something that you've been turning me on to a lot with his, just how good his red zone role is. Of course, the high total implied team total should lead you touchdown chances and you should get those touchdown chances. So it's very, very different than Christian McCaffrey here. And then as far as like the pass catchers go, even in two games with TOI Hilton playing roughly half the snaps, Michael Pittman has a 27% target share, 28% area share. He's not really a primary play just because the assumption is they won't have to throw the ball a ton, but there's a, it's a really good matchup and a really good workload for him. So I don't want to write him off just to someone who won't see any targets because they're playing from ahead. That's not really what we've seen from the Colts. I don't completely hate Carson Wentz, but I don't think it's enough with Russell Wilson at the same salary. So I could see the case for Wentz if you're really trying to be different, but you don't have to be different at quarterback very often. And we have a bring back option at least with Dan Arnold at tight end. We don't want to load up on the Jaguars, but Indianapolis has been very generous to opposing pass catchers. I wish Marvin Jones was a little less dusty at 59, but like I could kind of force myself to get there. But for this game, then, do you see Taylor, like, do you see this as like Taylor or bust? Do you think there's enough leftover for anyone else? And then any thoughts on the Jaguars side as well? Yeah, I think Arnold works for sure. Also, like I was kind of surprised. I looked at my like projected efficiency numbers this week in Jacksonville's 20th of the week. I mean, I guess that overall 28. So they're 19th. I since that he gets this day's defense about that. So that doesn't make any sense. But like they're 19th among all teams. And they are behind a couple teams that aren't on the main slate. It's like, they're actually like above some teams in the main slate that we're going to be using dudes on, like they're above Philly, they're above New Orleans. They're above Detroit. Where do you line up? Where do you rank the Colts defense then? Not super highly. Right. So like, that's why. Yeah, I think that there's value in the Jags plus 10 and a half. So yeah, I think that Arnold works because of that. Because like, no, I didn't use them at all last week because I just thought the expectations for the team were so low, but I'm more optimistic this week in a dome against a lesser defense. So I think that Arnold definitely works. I think the question that I have is JT or Najee. I know what I think. I have JT. I think you're going to say Najee. Najee for cash, JT for tournaments. I always think tournaments. I think the touchdown, if anyone's scoring two touchdowns this week, it's going to be Jonathan Taylor. Like if, obviously I can't guarantee that, but like if I had to make the case for someone scoring twice, it would be Jonathan Taylor over Najee Harris for me. He's plus 260 to score two touchdowns at Vandalsport, but that's an absurd number, but it's accurate. That's pretty wild. Yeah, I agree. I think that Najee is better for cash games because the workload, like the in traditional sense of like Karius targets, et cetera, is like better. But for tournaments, like from a yardage perspective, I think that JT is better. So I think that like Taylor, Arnold stack works really well. I would consider Pitman. There's a Taylor Arnold out there listening. Yes. I think that with Arnold or a Pitman, I should say, like, I think I just prefer the guys around him more. So it's mostly JT and Arnold, but I do think that both those guys are pretty good here. Yeah. I mean, the thing for Pitman is like, and I talked about this on covering the spread yesterday, it's like, he's going to be projected as similar to other guys and other guys have probably a better case, but I mean, he's got some juice. Yeah. It's within the range of outcomes for him to outscore everyone at that set of thousand range. So I don't want to write them off just because and the reason again, I looked at the pace and pass rate here while leading, and it still looks pretty good. So I think he could put up a pretty solid game. And again, hey, you're talking about the Jaguar showing some life with your expected offensive efficiency. We've seen them not just roll over, obviously. So this one might not be a blowout from the start. Might be. So I like the individual plays of like Mike Evans and Terry McClourin, a decent amount. But I think that like, if we're talking which game as a, I don't know, this game is kind of interesting to me. I just wish that I could feel better about like Pitman and stuff like that and feel more drawn towards some plays, but I think this game is pretty good. My second try to summit Pittsburgh and their offense with no jujus misjuster because they lost Chase Claypool as well, which can further concentrate the targets. But I think we can kind of look at the post juju era to get an idea of where the concentrated targets are going. And they're all going to two guys. It's Deontay Johnson and Pat Fryarmuth. We look at that three game sample with no jujus misjuster. Johnson leads with 32% of the team's overall targets. Fryarmuth is second at 20%. Johnson has 56% of the deep targets. And that's, it's 1.7 per game because Ben can't throw deep. But Fryarmuth is at 33% of the red zone targets. And that's with, or sorry, he's at 27%. Chase Claypool is at 33%. So if Claypool is gone, Fryarmuth is at least locked into the 28%. And it could go up because they lost like their big body in towards the red zone. It's also worth noting that Ben Rothesberger is average 0.14, passing net expected points per dropback in this time. So slightly above, right about leak average, since juju got hurt. So I think we have to be in on Deontay at 74 and Fryarmuth at 51, despite the offense, despite the low total in this game, I don't usually like receivers in low total games. I hate them actually, but like, I think Deontay's role changes things quite a bit. So we talked about Nanji versus JT. Let's talk about Deontay Johnson and Pat Fryarmuth. I think that Fryarmuth is the play for cash games and a very good play for tournaments. I think that Deontay grades out well in both formats. I just want to make sure I get there because like, game stacks will take up a lot of my receiver plays this week. I want to make sure I get Deontay in there as a standalone play at times. What about you with those two? Yeah, I mean, I love Fryarmuth. I'll say it again. I just loved him as a prospect. So like, I'm going to be hiring him, just trying to jump the gun here, not that like the secret, the secret's kind of out already with him. And again, he's a rookie. So like, this is kind of strange to see. And it would be probably even more of a story if it wasn't for Kyle Pitts. And it goes back to Kyle Pitts for me with Fryarmuth is, he's got an amazing red zone role, but he's not going to get you 100 yards. Kyle Pitts is the guy who can. So for cash games, I think Fryarmuth or Dan Arnold is the play probably Fryarmuth for me. But as much as I'm going to play Fryarmuth in tournaments, I kind of got to keep going back to Kyle Pitts because I'm getting a little bit more concerned because that game rates out so well. As for Deontay, the workload, of course, is phenomenal. And even if I'm not like, I like, I like game stacks and even in cash games, head to heads, double ups, I would not game stack Deontay, but with the workload being what it is, like he's definitely in play. He might be in our head to head lineup. If I can kind of find a structure that gets me back up to three of the low 7,000 receivers, or if we don't get Keenan, and we get like Mike Williams in play, but yeah, that's probably where I would optimally be. So with Connor and Johnson kind of locked in, I think I can probably get back up there, especially if I do go the Fryarmuth route. But yeah, Deontay very much in play for me, probably just lower on him in tournaments though, because just of everything with that offense. Yeah, I would like to get there just despite that, just because the target share is absurd and the defense is so bad, but like I get, I get your reservation for sure. So for single entry tournament, pits are Fryarmuth. So I think with single entry comes down to you say, hey, is Kyle Pitts going to go for a big game? And if he doesn't, then no tight end really can have like a massive game just based on their ranges of outcomes. I think you'd probably bet that he doesn't completely erupt, and I would probably try to take the savings with Fryarmuth. Okay. I think because I want to be so stacky in single entry, I put pits in there. That's assuming I, well, I probably would just stack. Like if I'm not using Dallas in Atlanta, so yeah, if I'm not stacking that game, I'll probably get a mini stack of like Zeke and pits. So I think I'll be there. I think I'll be on pits for single entry this week. Yeah, it's, I love Kyle Pitts this week. He's awesome. Whether for this week, there's nothing. It's great. I was shocked. So let's move to our positional plays for this week based on the positions over at FanDuel.com. Brandon, who you got a quarterback this week? We very nearly had, or nearly had the same plays. I did pivot, but I can't get away from Dak Prescott here. It's a bounce back spot for him. And what is the best game of the week? My numbers like the over, even whenever, I mean, like the over, it's down a half a point, but still 54 and a half. Like the game a lot. Matt Ryan has been very, very good. That helps me. Even without Kevin Ridley, like that's really promising to see what he's done. And Dak's just been like phenomenal this year, kind of underperforming overall, which is kind of strange. With the bounce back opportunity this week, I think people might be a little bit lower on Dak than they deserve to be. And also with so many quarterbacks in the conversation, like, I don't think anybody's going to be chalky, which is something we talked about early on in the season. Quarterbacks just don't really get to that point. He is third in passing that expected points per dropback over expectation this season. So give me that. My second love is a little bit conditional. And if this doesn't pan out, then I'll, I would just say Jim's second love, but I'm going to go with Russell Wilson at 7,500. He is fourth in adjusted passing that expected points per dropback this year amongst starters right now. He's got the two clear stack options. Green Bay's a good pass to defense, but they're 22nd in pressure rate. And there's still a ceiling with Russ for the salary. I know he's not going to run the ball very much with the injury. Probably try to protect him as much as they can. But if anybody's got, you know, 300 yard four touchdown upside just from a pocket passing standpoint, it feels like it's Russ or Tom Brady, of course, but like Russ's salary opens up a lot. Or at least enough. I'll use Russ this week. My two are Dak and Justin Herbert. You talked about Dak a lot. I think that just like, I can't, I can't ignore that game. It's too good. The Falcons 27th against the pass. I can just stack him as Zeke if I don't want to worry about the receivers, but like all the receivers have upside. So I'll still go there. Number two, Herbert, he looked healthy last week. I had had concerns about the hand injury, but like, he's just whipping that thing like didn't matter. He's just too good. He's facing a team that lets them deep attempts, which hasn't always been the case. The Vikings, as mentioned, have let up the fourth highest ADOT this year defensively. They've performed well. Like they've got good, you know, numbers when you adjust for schedule and stuff, but like the chargers are also pretty good. So he's $8,000. Obvious stacking candidates. I think that Herbert a standout play for this week. Let's move to running back. What you got there? Jonathan Taylor, 9400. I think I'm going to side with him over Naji, but I love both obviously. Taylor's played a majority of the snaps in each game since week five, at least 64% of the snaps in each game since week six. I already talked about a lot of his workload, but just 22.3 adjusted opportunities per game, which are carries plus double your targets, but that's the concern with Jonathan Taylor for me always, but the red zone role was so good that it's hard to look at that and kind of knock it. He's got 54% of the team's red zone opportunities. So carries plus targets in that span, which is by far a position best. And with the high touchdown expectations within this offense, it's the touchdown equity. As you mentioned with the sports book odds, just kind of through the roof. And then unsurprisingly, my second to my second and third loves for James Conner and Dearness Johnson. Conner again, just a really good workload, 77% snap rate, 69% of the routes with five targets, which is easily the most promising thing I saw last week. He looked good, but giving him screen passes was awesome. I worry a little bit if we get, there's the healthy Kyler that they kind of go away from him a little bit, but the salary is still really good against the mid-level rushing matchup. Then for Dearness Johnson, 69% snap rate in week seven as a starter, which is of course is very nice. Six red zone carries two targets on 15 routes for a team high 44% route rate in that situation. And again, values tough. There are some potential other options, but if you don't include James Conner as a value, like it's Dearness Johnson is the number one value back by far. And that route rate for Johnson came with metric Felton active in that game, and he ran some routes too. And he's on the COVID list as well. So my bottom two are Conner and Johnson. I think that like you just use them as often as possible. I wasn't going to talk about Najee. I think we talked a lot about him though. So I want to talk briefly about Dalvin Cook's role once again, facing the Chargers, a team that encourages you to run against them. Cook in his five full games this year, 28 just opportunities per game, 119 yards per game, 37% red zone share. All those numbers stand out relative to guys in this range, $8,500 a game that I want to stack. I think he really does check every box. So I think that I want to be there at $8,500 as like, I think that I, I don't know, I might even like put him, I put him in the same tier as Taylor and Najee. He's a little bit lower salaried. So I would consider going him over them if I had one lineup, despite the fact that I love them. Let's move to wide receiver. What do you have there? I'm going to go with Mike Evans, 7400 losing the other assets would hurt Tom Brady, but you know, you would bump down this offense, you'd bump down touchdown equity, but I think you just very obviously add a lot to Mike Evans's expected target share. In three games without Antonio Brown, he's averaged eight targets, which is 18%, 2.7 downfield targets, two red zone targets per game. Washington's a very beatable matchup. 29th and adjusted fandal points per target allowed to receivers. Then I'm going to jump down as far as I can with any level of confidence for somewhat of a value at receiver. I'm going to go with Manny Sanders, Emmanuel Manny Sanders at 6,300. He leads the team with 92% of the routes in two post buy games, 100 air yards per game in that sample, just 33 yards per game. So should have better output, just 9.2 expected fandal points per game in that span, but 4.3 is what he's given us. So kind of a regression candidate, 16.7 yard eight-ot, three and a half downfield targets per game. The splash play potential has been there. It just hasn't worked out. And then my third love is Jerry Judy. I know he's 6,200 and I'm not digging into the 5,000 range for value at receiver, but a lot of those plays are still conditional. So I don't feel great about them right now. I would consider Michael Gallup. I hope you don't have him there. You don't right now. But Judy, at 6,200, we have the ability at a certain point if we're going to play James Conner, Dianna Johnson, consider other value backs, play Pat Friaramuth or Dan Arnold at tight end. We don't have to be living in the 5,000 range at receiver this week. So I think I can get back up to Judy in a lot of lineups. And he just generated the best passing role within this offense last week. He has a 27% weighted target share, which accounts for your overall targets downfield and red zone targets in his two games since returning 24% overall target share. And the Eagles are a beatable matchup against receivers as well. Yeah, I consider Judy didn't get there just because like I want to talk about some other guys, but I like him too. And Manny as well. My top love is DK Metcalf. He's the guy I said that I was so excited to use that I wanted to vomit. And I think that it's similar to the Naji JT thing where I go lock ever cash games DK for tournaments and the games with Russ DK Metcalf has 29% of the team's overall targets, 44% of the deep targets and 42% in the red zone. That's stupid. He's $8,000 lock in his lower salary that may funnel some usage towards him. But like DK is going to nuke a slate really soon. And I'm excited to use him when he does Mike Williams, my number two guy. We talked about this on Monday, but the role has been rough. Again, the Vikings led up deep balls, done the personnel to like really focus on him. I don't think Williams still does have 21% of the season long targets, 40% of the deep targets, 24% in the red zone. He's had 120 plus yards twice. And I think that's still within his range of outcomes. So I still am in on Mike Williams at $6,900. As far as the low salary guys, I do think that Tyler Johnson is the one I would gravitate towards if Godwin and Evans are both, or if Godwin and Brown are both out, he's had 60 plus yards twice, $5,100. Really good matchup for Johnson versus Washington. 1.4 yards per route run is not great by any means, but it's also not terrible. And I think that that's impactful here. So I think that Johnson, Marquez, all the scambling, Michael Gallup, all interesting. If we get no Godwin and no Brown, I'd probably be highest on Johnson of that group. Let's move to tight end. What you got there? Two names. I've said a ton. I probably should have gone Kyle Pitts here, but I think the case is a little bit easier for him. So I'm going to say it helps. Yeah. Daniel Arnold, his role has been really good since week five when his role expanded with the Jaguars. He's fifth among main slate tight ends in weighted target share and overall target share in that sample. The Colts 31st and adjusted Fandall points per target allowed to tight ends, which adjusts on a player level basis, not just the team level basis helps balance out the salary of a Jonathan Taylor for those game stacks. And the volume seems pretty safe, even though his ADOT has been pretty bad. I'll take targets at tight end, if nothing else, especially a 5,100. And then my second love is going to be Pat Fryemuth, which is pretty easy. We've been weighing on him all podcast, but seventh in target share among tight ends the past two weeks, which is without Eric Ebron for him, two red zone targets per game, two end zone targets per game in that sample, which is 33% of the red zone work. Detroit is 22nd in adjusted Fandall points per target allowed to tight ends. Yeah. I think that Fryemuth to me is the one guy here who I think I gravitate towards a lot. I also do love pits. The guy between them who I want to make sure doesn't go overlooked and I do want to use this week is Noah Fance. He's coming off the COVID list. He's already been activated. This is good to go. He has 20% of the team's targets in the two games he has played with Jerry Judy this year. Really good number. He had, he said, total of two T targets and two red zone targets in those games. Filly led up a couple tight end touchdowns last week to Donald Parham and Stephen Anderson. They led up eight total with two tight ends getting 80 yards so far this year. Fance is 57. The total has been increasing. It's 55 or 50 or 55 and a half. Now it was open. So there's been some action on the over here and I don't mind it. Teddy's been playing well. So I think that Fanta is interesting at 57. Prefer Fryemuth prefer pits, but I will get to Fant as well. Finishing up a defense, sticking in that game. What do you see in the defense? Yeah. So I don't know. It's just maybe, maybe it's just me. I'm really bad with my defense of selections. I tend to tail GM a lot, but if you look in the, we always try to recommend low salary defenses whenever we can. Not a whole lot stands out in the 3000 range. I think the Eagles are still in play even though I love the Broncos this week. It's, you can have offensive output and still a good defensive showing from the other side. Teddy Bridgewater has an 8.4% sack rate. The Eagles are 12th in pressure rate according to next gen stats. I know Denver looked good in week nine, but among all of the sub $4,000 defenses, I have the Eagles rated out best, but probably going to spend up a little bit more on, on defense for one of the teams that you're about to talk about. Well, I actually have the Eagles in my default right now. So I'm there too. I would say the Chargers at 33 if you're not using any Vikings, just because Kirk can do some Kirk stuff every now and then. So I think that they work. I tend to see those being like my, the one I'd like to get to at $4,100 facing my boy touchdown Trevor Simeon, but also like it's Trevor Simeon. The offensive line is very good and that does hurt in terms of projecting out a defense. We want the sacks, et cetera. Titans beat up the Rams. Their offensive line generally pretty good as well. Alvin Camara is banged up. That may hurt the Saints offense too. So I think they make a lot of sense. I want to get there. I will use the Eagles at times. I will use the Chargers at times, but I think that if I, if I had my choice, I would get to Tennessee at $4,100. That is all that we have here for today on the week 10 preview podcast. As always, back with you once again on Monday to recap things that is on the Fandall YouTube page at 9am and up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed after that. So make sure you subscribe there and also leave a rating and review. If you like what you hear, Brent, any final thoughts for you before we close up shop for week 10? I think we covered a lot. We got some great games to stack. We have some other like second, third, fourth tier games that have some appeal. We got running backs at all about like every salary range. It's going to be a fun week to try to think differently and you're able to kind of follow your own path. You don't have to, you're not really boxed in to like playing the three good running backs of the week. Right. You can get creative and I think that's fun. We've got options, good options. And I can actually spend down a bit this week at running back, which is weird and not get a bad role. So I can actually use the high salary receivers who I like. It's a fun place to be in. And we'll talk about it to wrap it up once again on Monday. If people have questions for you on Twitter, Brandon, where can they find you there? I'm at Godula 13 G D U L A one three. And I'm at Jim Saunas, J I M S A N N E S. You can also follow the FanDuel podcast network at FanDuel podcast. Big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your Thursday night lineups and with your Sunday main slate lineups. We'll talk to you once again Monday to wrap it all up. This has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire.