 Okay very good morning to you. It is Tuesday the 2nd of June. Hope you're doing well My name is Anthony Chung. I'm the head of market analysis here at Amplify Trading Just a quick mention of our website AmplifyTrading.com There will be you will be presented with a few different options depending on whether you are a trader Wanting to learn to trade or a student if you go on the trader page though This is what you'll see and if I just scroll down you can see information about the team and different programs that we run But of all the programs that we run there's something we have called Amplify Now Which is our on-demand learning portal which we launched at the beginning of the year If you now click that start now button essentially the way that we design this is that we have Put this is the e-learning portal You just enroll and then you can access three videos from the team absolutely free So no harm in doing so Just even if you wanted to check out that content without doing anything else other than that But if you did like what you see then basically you can pay for an upgrade and get access to the full program Which it really is the the full kind of foundation for everything you need to know to analyze and trade financial markets at least to Start your journey on the right footing So check that out. Just go on the AmplifyTraining.com forward slash traders page and you'll be able to access that But let's look at the charts in more detail for this morning and we've got a relatively quiet open Kind of similar to yesterday in some respects in terms of the equity movement And we've had a little dip an overnight and then we've recovered as we've gone into the late Asia session And as Europe has come into the market Kind of similar to the gap down We had with some of the initial protests from the weekend only to be reversed when Europe came in kind of similar type news themes as Well occurring with widespread Protests across nationwide America last night once again I'll go into that in a moment in a little bit more detail But for now, let's just have a quick look across the charts So equity index futures kind of flat in the u.s. Dax up about 30 albeit off its best levels Gold below its pivot level and you can see here just in terms of some of the near-term price activity It has been the pivot a interesting point of technical Interest added some support in the overnight Asia Pacific session a couple of times had a failed break there Momentarily when it did then eventually break through at around 5 30 am London time It broke down came back up to retest that level before then the extension on the pushdown So a nice classic on the on the pivot there in terms of the movement In fixed income with we're basically flat WTI crude futures holding up and There's a couple of things to be aware of there nothing major really but all in all Stabilization at a thirty five dollar handle Saudi Arabia Favouring keeping the current curbs in place Which are set to start easing from July They want to keep it in place for an extra one to three months according to a delegate and of course yesterday We're hearing some talk about them bringing forward next week's OPEC meeting to this week on Thursday I haven't really had any confirmation or not whether that's going to take place And obviously the whole deal is contingent on Russia agreeing with Saudi Arabia Which has obviously been a fairly contentious relationship in the past But it's looking like perhaps that that might take place in the markets Taking heed from that and giving some underlying support to crude prices despite some of the natural demand Uncertainty emanating from the escalation in the US China trade war at the moment In the FX markets the dollar is pretty flat There's a little been a little bit of movement since the European participants came in initially a little bit of a dip in the dollar then a recovery But net net the Dixie is unchanged that price movement kind of reflected in the euro this morning And cables currently really unchanged But holding on to a lot of the games that were seen after a decent day in the markets yesterday for the British pound let's get in then to some of the stories and starting off then with what has been happening in America because You know from a financial markets point of view You must understand that you know my my job here is to talk about markets It's not to talk so much about politics as you've probably come to ascertain the two are somewhat Incorporate one another to a certain respect just given Donald Trump in the White House, but otherwise as well the government's integral part of trying to counteract the economic consequence of the pandemic but things like the reasoning behind this kind of the underlying Racial connotations of this later Sun rest again I will leave to the sidelines, but markets at this point are Not really that faced by what's going on That's not to downplay the importance of the issue, but markets don't really have Sympathy for these types of issues at least mechanically from how they function That's not unless and one thing I'll talk about that it increases the rate of potential transmission of the virus Which then given that kind of compounding rate of growth that it can have If then you know one person catches it and that our rate goes above one and then one goes to two Two goes for and so on and so forth Then certainly this would have big ramifications for the economic recovery potential For the United States of America, which would be absolutely key for the global economy So we're going to talk about that a little bit, but let me just give you an overall an overview of what's happening So last night it kind of came to a bit of a head given the fact that Donald Trump was doing a few things that I guess the opposing political view have some serious questions about given that he Authorized the use of tear gas on peaceful protesters nearby I believe he was in in Washington and he wanted them removed So he teared gas them walked across basically the hill and then went to a church for a photo Opportunity is what some of the press is suggesting but irrespective of that What has been happening? Well, Trump the main point was that he threatened to deploy the US military To end riots riots and lawlessness across the country This of course is all coming after George Floyd that on our black man was killed by the hands of the Minneapolis police What's seven days ago now? Trump he said that state officials he labeled them as basically weak and asked them to toughen their response to Demonstration so again, it's kind of quite a traditional tactic from Trump Similar to how he's dealt with the virus. He's kind of using the The state-level authorities as kind of the the scapegoats to blame in this instance, whereas he comes down with quite a heavy kind of hand Two people have been killed and unrest in the Chicago sub suburb last night four police officers have been shot in St. Louis So there's lots of different things that are going on New York City They've imposed a late-night curfew as of yesterday that curfew them being Doors closed and from 11 p.m. Until 5 a.m That didn't stop though bands of protests that were happening as a rallying in Times Square in Brooklyn yesterday that marched for several hours Protesters were also marching through Manhattan and Brooklyn irrespective of that curfew last night So one of the main things here that I'm looking at and I was talking to some of the traders about late yesterday was Just having a bit of a recap really of what's going on with COVID-19 if you remember when we were Kind of in early March, I guess this was probably the only screen that I used to be sharing in these briefings however, it's very rarely that actually bring it up and a big point of that is that You know for one a lot of this has been priced in and to we've got over the peak in areas like America And we're now on the downward trajectory and so this is leading to the reopening But what I'm more interested now is as economies do start to reopen then well then What point do we potentially start to see the emergence of a Secondary wave now people have always thought that that will be the case because inherently then given the Nature of the virus that's very hard sometimes to identify because not all people show symptoms It might mean that people do effectively go back to crowded places into the workplace and Inadvertently start to reshare the virus and then of course it can spread very quickly like what we saw in South Korea I think that one individual went to three nightclubs and it was thousands of people that potentially could have been impacted so here then is a bit of an update of what's going on in the US at the moment and One of the things that's looking at is here and this obviously makes it a little bit more clear It's certainly as has always been the case from the beginning New York Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey these types of areas have seen the heaviest number of deaths in regards to the coronavirus situation in the US But one thing I was having a look at last night was well, I was just quite surprised by just the the number of Protests that have been happening in America nationwide at the moment and George Floyd's death in police custody has sparked more than 250 protests across the country and as you can see here each red dot obviously you know, this is not a Scientific kind of map with with respective numbers and those those gatherings will vary in size dramatically, but the point I'm saying is that The last thing that probably you would want from a World Health Organization point of view So from a health authority is for people to be gathering in mass congregations protesting Which is obviously not not conducive for social distancing. So for me, although this virus obviously takes time to Appear in its symptoms, you know, it could be too late by that point One evening of mass gathering then when these people disband and go their own way could easily grow very quickly. So I'm very interested to track those numbers now going forward The protests obviously if they continue today would be going into what the 7th day so The period of the next week I think could be quite interesting to see the trajectory of those US numbers If you break these down, of course poor African-American households with high Incidents of pre-existing conditions. So things like heart disease diabetes asthma. These are all exacerbated by poverty Poor nutrition lack of access to medical care. These are all things that typically are more Probably reflective of the ethnic minorities in America Therefore, those have been more susceptible and have had higher rates of deaths Comparative to their white counterparts for example. So given the nature of these the the racial underlying of these these protests, I think it's going to be potentially a risk for markets not now, but these numbers if they do Expand quite quickly on the virus. So again, just what I'm saying. I guess vigilance for tracking these numbers going forward I think markets have become Relatively sanguine about the whole information or the whole situation at the moment And we continue to kind of rally in the equity market. No, I'm not saying that this is going to be the one Silver bullet that's going to call the end of it but I do think that this The secondary wave risk was already there and now that's been somewhat Exassivated by this this situation Okay, moving on other headlines This isn't new Merkel talking about more stimulus. The only reason I'm bringing it up again because this did come out last week is That today is the day they're going to be talking So German Chancellor Merkel is going to seek to broker compromise today on a second stimulus package after they unveiled the initial one in March Merkel will host officials from ruling coalition of her Christian Democratic led block and the social Democrats in Berlin at 2 p.m. Local Times around 1 p.m. In London possible measures range from debt relief for struggling municipalities to cash bonuses to stimulate car sales I think it's cash for clunkers It's how it's referred to the US and aid for families with with children the finance minister also wants to extend a state wage support program So as what we've seen before in markets generally Every time the government kind of steps up their fiscal Kind of offering to the market generally is more well received than not But as I said, I think that this is already priced in because the initial headlines for this were coming out last week The only thing we're looking out here then is potentially disappointment If Mark or if Merkel's excuse me can't come to a compromise between the the CDU and the social Democrats will then if they if they like we had with the European assets Sensitivity to the inability initially for the EU block to come to some sort of coordinated action Perhaps that could have some sensitivity in a similar fashion if Merkel can't piece together some kind of deal and compromise Markets expect now the range is around 50 to 100 billion euros that we're looking at for for fiscal stimulus in the secondary package The other thing we've had overnight is the RBA. I'm not going to spend much time talking about this hasn't really moved the currency Basically maintain both their cash rate of three year yield target at 0.25 percent. It's all very much as expected One of the interesting things if anything Was a comment that possible depth of downturn will be less than earlier expected So if anything perhaps a little bit upbeat with that commentary So the RBA holding fire on signs of early recovery So the Aussie just holding on to some of the gains that were seen from yesterday's session On Brexit a few things to be aware of UK is expected to indicate its willingness to compromise on fisheries and trade rules if the European Union agrees to back off from its Maximilist demands related to regulatory alignment and fishing access according to the Times Newspaper now that is a little of a sign of perhaps a concession of sorts because Definitely on the fisheries and trade rules there were the two things if you're remembering yesterday's briefing from the weekend press Providing a bit of a stumbling block for further progression in these talks, which recommenced today between Britain and all UK and Europe My thoughts on that have not changed. I do not think that the negotiations Between the kind of the Brexit negotiators is going to change this week But one thing is is that Prime Minister is going to be meeting Boris Johnson with the president of the European Commission said to be This month so after this week, but obviously ahead of the deadline at the end of the month still looking to Looking to get a deal of some sort over the line or at least Heading in the right direction in order for the UK government for Boris Johnson's point of view not to request any further extension beyond the The current transition at the end of the year And then looking at the counter for today This is actually pretty quiet mean RBA aside There's not really a great deal coming out on the on the docket today from a from an economic data point of view a couple of mortgage related numbers Perhaps just for those interested if you if you own a property or looking to buy or sell at the moment The latest nationwide house price data for May Came in month a month at minus one point seven percent a little bit weaker than expected But I don't think that's surprising a nationwide house price data doesn't really move the pound But that just pointing that out because you've got mortgage approvals lending coming out this are later this morning Again, not a market mover and then going into the afternoon no major 130s from the states You've got the ISM your index But again, that's not really going to be a market mover mover either And then the API inventories for any crude trade is not coming out until much later in the evening Speaker-wise not too much from the docket certainly nothing from a central bank perspective And then form a fixed income side of things Some supply coming out the UK to be aware of if you're looking at the UK guilt market But that's that's pretty much it for me So yeah pretty quiet open this morning, but given the lack of calendar events Perhaps then today could be a much more technical lead day on the charts cross-asset Perhaps still keeping an eye on on Trump this situation with the flare-up with the The demonstrations in America and Trump's threat now to deploy the US military Certainly need keeping an eye on at this point markets seemingly still brushing that aside somewhat But I think if we start tipping over into that view that I've been talking about about the repercussion that could have on the pandemic rates of recovery With the and the virus numbers that could be something to to keep an eye on And then also just keeping an eye out as well for anything on the the US China trade front However, I was saying this to some of the guys yesterday. I would imagine that Trump will be wholeheartedly looking to try to address the George Floyd situation rather than talking about China and trade wars um, you know in terms of his political Hierarchy of needs if you want to call it that it's certainly much more about the demonstrations at this point So perhaps that could lessen the need or lessen the probability of a kind of A china related comment that could spook the market at this point Which might mean that trends generally can are going to be continuing today And a more technical oriented session, but we shall see all right guys. That's it from me Have a good session ahead and I'll catch you later