 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network It is a mixed plate kind of day here on covering the spread because you do have six games across tonight in Major League Baseball We'll break down the money lines and strikeout props I like their first but then later on because it's just a more limited slave for baseball We are gonna talk formula one in Belgium at Spa for this weekend breaking down What my numbers say about the field and one driver I am quite a bit higher on than the market all that and more coming up today here on covering the spread This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network. My name is Jim Sannis I am a managing editor of a digital media at Fandall research here to break down tonight's NLB slate and talk about Formula one at Spa for this weekend. We'll dive into all that here in just one second But first a reminder if you want some analysis on tonight's US women's World Cup game Make sure you check out our podcast from Monday with dr. Ed Fank He broke down that game against the Netherlands rematch the 2019 women's World Cup final talked about Ed's thoughts on the markets that game some props and early takeaways from the women's World Cup So find that on covering the spread wherever you get your podcast But also on the Fandall YouTube page and on Fandall TV plus on Amazon fire Apple TV and Roku as well We've got some exciting news over at number fire beginning now You can find all of number for all the number fire content from the analysts You know over at a new home called Fandall research Fandall research is on the Fandall domain meaning you can now do your own research on the same site where you place bets and submit Daily fantasy lineups and don't worry all the number fire tools are still in place over at number fire comms Your daily process can remain the same for now as they thank you for your years of loyalty We'll be running free rolls over on Fandall research now through the end of the NFL season to check out this week's free play for that After mentioned women's World Cup game go to the welcome to Fandall research article over on Fandall research Find that by going to Fandall comm a slash research is on the home page right there at the top Welcome to Fandall research at Fandall comm slash research and be sure to check out all the great content while you're there Don't forget to get that free roll entered tonight Fandall comm slash research for all of that Let's dig in now to tonight's MLB slay and break down some spots where I am seeing value Based on my money line and strike out prop models over at Fandall sportsbook The first one is going to be the Rangers taking on the answers I'll prop in this game later on as well But I do show value in the Rangers money line Which is currently plunge plus 158 over at Fandall sportsbook as they take on the Astros and Part of the reason why I buy into this bet is that my model does not have a high opinion of Andrew Heaney which we'll talk about later on and Despite that I am still showing value in the Rangers here Heaney has had big issues with hard contact and that's why the model is not super high in him But I also think that his offense can't support him a bit here because the Rangers very good against lefties They have a 130 WRC plus even with no Corey seager on the current active roster. They're facing from brawl beds Who is a tremendous pitcher? I love from brawl beds. He gets ground balls get some strikeouts. It's an elite combination He hasn't quite been on the best form recently and it's also a very tough spot for him again facing this Rangers team that can belt lefties even without seager being healthy. So when you combine You I guess you do combine Heaney not being great at well in my model with Valdez we're doing what he does with how good the range star against lefties He put it on the blender and the Astros should be favored here, obviously But I have the Rangers win odds at forty four point three percent the implied odds of plus 158 are thirty eight point eight percent So pretty big gap there in favor of the Rangers So I buy into that again because I don't think super highly of Heaney But the model and neither does the model but we're still showing value here even after accounting for his presence So to me the Rangers money line plus 158 a quality bat for tonight over on fandell.com The second money line where I'm showing value for tonight is one that's bounced around quite a bit this morning It was I think they were right like minus 110 and open They were plus 102 couple minutes ago and they're now plus 106 that is Chicago White Sox Taking on the Chicago Cubs and I like the White Sox side of this matchup with it currently setting a plus 106 Over at fandell sports book and I think if it continues to bounce around I would still show value in the White Sox even if they were to get to even money because I the White Sox Favored in this game my model puts their win odds at fifty five point six percent the implied odds of plus one of six They're forty eight point five percent and the reason that the White Sox are higher for me than the market is I'm pretty high Lance Lynn right now. He's been on a heater since he reintroduced his curveball We discussed this with pitching Ninja Rob Freeman last week on the show and he said he adds pitches always have but he's gone back to with more Confidence recently and it's worked out Well seven starts sample for Lynn with more curveballs and he has a three point three oh skill interactive ERA with a thirty two point six percent strikeout rate Lynn has not had the best results, but is bad of all data is largely fine He's facing tough teams. So I would say sometimes when you have better peripherals and results It indicates that a person has rough bad of ball data and that's not really the case with Lynn He's I think he faced a lot of tough teams that has led to those bad results this time around Lynn is at home He's facing a team with a league average WRC plus against righties the White Sox offense is pretty rough for sure but Hopefully getting you on one ca the back and help a bit there So I agree with the model on this one that the market is too light on the White Sox here So the White Sox of plus one oh six as long as they're still plus money still a bet I would take over our fangirls sportsbook plus one oh six right now. So Two money lines. I am liking for tonight are going to be the Texas Rangers of plus one fifty eight And the Chicago White Sox at plus one oh six a couple of strikeout props I like for tonight as well and both these are underers on Strikeout props first one is going to be in the Tigers versus Angels game It is a revenge game for Michael Lorenzen former angel in this one But I do like the under on his strikeout prop. This is shifted. It was plus one eighteen earlier on it is now plus one twelve So there has been some movement towards the under here, which I agree with but it does mean not as advantageous as it was before Still good enough for me to take it though now Let's talk through the Lorenzen situation here because I have Lorenzen projected right at this number strikeout Prop is four and a half. I've got him at four point six So that may make it odd to take an under here because it sounds like the market is pretty much on him But this is why looking at the actual The actual juice on these does matter quite a bit because it actually does tip the scales in a significant fashion Plus one twelve implies that the the implied odds that Lorenzen goes under four and a half are you know So it they're decently high and if I run my model the odds of Lorenzen gets to five strikeouts Basically, basically 50% it is 50.8 percent above 49.2 percent below so Effectively if we can get anything You know not quite plus money because 49 percent Isn't quite is going to be a little bit above that but plus one twelve the implied odds there 47.2 percent so we did a good amount of cushion there to feel good about an under on Lorenzen at four and a half Even with his projection being right there at four point six looking at Lorenzen specifically He's made 14 starts since he started featuring a slider more and he has topped this mark Just five times five out of 14 starts while holding an 18.3 percent strikeout right now He is at home today. He is facing a team with a slightly above average strikeout right against righties, but The projections account for that for both those factors So to me if you're getting plus one twelve on Lorenzen under four and a half strikeouts I feel like that is an advantageous enough number to take it. It's not as good as plus one 18 shop around There was a plus 120 available earlier on this morning So shop around see what you can find But I do think that the under Lorenzen is still profitable at plus one twelve Other strikeout profits that is very very similar going back to that Rangers versus Astros game now embedding The Rangers money line I am saying that I have faith in the Rangers to win this game and Typically that will correlate with the strikeout over. I actually like the under on Heaney as mentioned before I'm skeptical of what he's been doing recently and we're getting plus one twenty six on the under now This situation with Heaney is very similar to the situation with the Lorenzen where I haven't projected pretty much right here He's a little bit lower at four point five and That implies again pretty much anything plus money on the under is going to be a good bet And this one is a plus one twenty six we're getting a lot of cushion there at plus one twenty six Heaney has made nine starts since he started to Reincrease his slaughter usage, which you know, I thought would increase the strikeout rates It's been a high strikeout picture in the past But even in this nine start sample his strikeout rate is just twenty three point seven percent He's facing a very low strikeout team 17% strikeout rate against lefties on the Astros current active roster So I have faith that the Rangers can win. I just think that this number is too high And we should be pushed to take the under here This is not a situation where I would same game partly of these as in general I am hesitant to do so because I want to get the individual legs out there but especially here where they are kind of Working against each other because if he need doesn't get a lot of strikeouts That probably decreases the odds the Rangers wins So these are ones I definitely would want to make sure our individual legs versus part of a same game partly So he need plus one twenty six the Rangers to win or he need under four now strikeouts plus one twenty six And the Rangers to win a plus one fifty eight the two spots around seeing value in this game But I would ensure you keep those legs separate because they are much better as separate pets Because they do kind of work against each other than if they were to be parlayed together So for baseball tonight like the Rangers plus one fifty eight that the White Sox plus one oh six Michael Lorenzen under four and a strikeouts plus one twelve and Andrew Heaney under four and a strikeouts at plus one twenty six That's gonna wrap up NLB for today. Let's not talk about some formula one I was gonna talk some NASCAR today, too But the NASCAR betting markets not up at yet at Fandall sportsbook So we'll come back to that probably on Friday. It's we're gonna talk women's World Cup and College football with Ed on Thursday, so we'll circle back for NASCAR on Friday Hopefully markets on Fandall are up by then, but this week's formula one race is in Belgium It's at Spa and it's one of my favorite tracks in the circuit really fun one to watch and it's a final race before the summer break So how to make sure I got some F1 in for today before they go on vacation I've adjusted my model more to account for McLaren I think it's finally viewing them properly after I thought it was too low entering last week another week of Confirmation that they are legitimate. I actually show a smidge of value in Oscar Piazza to win but not gonna take it so It does Make me feel better about my model and thinking that it's properly accounting for what has been a resurgent team the one bet I like most this week is actually a bit of a surprise to me and I would say it's a surprise but it's not as big of a surprise as The median lap times of this driver in the race last week And that is going to be on Daniel Ricardo to finish inside the top 10, which is currently plus 350 over at Fandall Sportsbook It was Ricardo's first race at Alpha Taurey and I went in expecting a Learning curve because it is a new car. It is a bad car and last time we saw Ricardo he was struggling in that McLaren last year Of course, he did run well at the Red Bull tire test and stuff like that So we had some anecdotal evidence that Ricardo may have refound his groove But nothing actually on track as of yet so I went in pretty skeptical and I had Ricardo slotted in behind Sonoda when Dilding out my model for last week So went in with pretty low expectations of Ricardo and Ricardo did get caught up in a lap one incident That was not his fault a Joe Guan Yu got penalized that incident So Ricardo not a fault there got some damage, but the damage was not too bad But it did push Ricardo down to 18th in the running order So he was working from behind effectively the entire race from that point on after he dropped down to 18th Ricardo was flying he actually had the eighth best median lap time of any driver During the race last week and that is partly because the two Alpines were out So we to keep that take that the grain of salt where you have two guys in Contention for top 10s consistently who were not in the running So top eight with an asterisk or an eighth place mark with an asterisk there, but Ricardo's median lap time was better than Charlotte Claire. It was better than Fernando Alonso It was better than Lance Stroll So Ricardo was phenomenal and he exceeded my expectations by a wide margin he did rebound to finish 13th and Coming back from 18th This is pretty impressive in that regard, but it also doesn't snag your attention I think that's why we're getting Ricardo at plus 350 for this week 13th place. Who cares about that? It's not going to sag your attention But the median lap times should my jaw actually dropped when I saw Ricardo's median lap time from that race It was the best median lap time Relative to the field for any Alphatowery driver since Pierre Gasly at Monaco last year It's been well more than a year that was may of last year as last time We saw an Alphatowery with that kind of pace relative to the field now talking about this from a modeling perspective I can't just take Ricardo's pace from that race and plug it in because there are a lot of things that can impact median lap time I try to account for that try to account for pit stops all those things But it's not great to go on a one-way sample. So what I did is combined The prior that I had for Ricardo based on his equipment based on the speedy showed last year and combine that With the pace he showed last week and that prior is still in my model to an extent But once we add in this pace and last week Ricardo grades out really well my model now is Ricardo in the same tier as those two Alpines Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly and Lance stroll Ocon and Gasly are both plus 130 for a top 10 Stroll is minus 105 and Ricardo is plus 350 So that's a big big gap between Ricardo and the guys who my model used to be in the same tier as him for this week Now it is very possible. My model is just off on Ricardo like that does happen It's based on just one race. He finished 13th there. So it didn't blow the world away, but I Trust the process behind the numbers here and Ricardo was really really fast So my model is Ricardo at 40.5 percent for a top 10 his implied odds are 22.2 percent It's a big gap and it should make us wary any time you're way off in the market The market's usually right. So keep that in mind if you decide to bet Ricardo to finish top 10 keep in mind We could be off here. That is very much possible The market is not bought into Ricardo yet in the market again tends to be very efficient I think we should buy into Ricardo though based on those meeting lab times Based on the fact that I think Sonodo has been underrated by the market earlier this year too So I think that maybe is just Nick DeVries dragging down that entire team I feel like we should be in on Ricardo So if I'm betting anything for spa this week, it'll be Ricardo for a top 10 at plus 350 I think that is actually a very quality bet for this week So didn't Ricardo plus 350 for a top 10 is my favorite formula one bet for this week over at spa That's all we got here for today here on covering the spread as I mentioned We are back once again tomorrow We're gonna break down the women's world cup match will recap the Netherlands USA match And then take a look forward for them as well And then we'll talk some college football futures with Ed to get you ready for the month of August Which is just around the corner if you got any questions for me I'm on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J. I am s a NNES Make sure you're following Fandal research on Twitter at Fandal research again check out the podcast by subscribing to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcasts if you like what you hear leave us a five-star rating on Apple podcasts or Spotify and check us out Overwork on the Fandal YouTube page and over on Fandal TV plus enjoy the baseball tonight Enjoy team USA versus the Netherlands should be a really fun match there. We'll talk to you all once again tomorrow This has been covering the spread right here on the Fandal podcast network