 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network NASCAR is back the Daytona 500 is coming up on Sunday Which means we got to celebrate and bring on dr. Nick Giffen to pick his brain around This year's event get his favorite bets over at Fandall sportsbook and elsewhere to get you ready for what should be a blast of a weekend This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as mentioned by Dr Nick Giffen check him out on Twitter at roto doc find his work at the action network and fantasy labs also check Check him out on the stacking Denny's podcast the running hot podcast as well Nick you're a busy guy this week. So I appreciate the time. How you doing today? Yeah, I'm so excited NASCAR is back You know, I mean I cover a lot of sports for action network, but my bread and butters NASCAR It always has been it's my favorite sport to bet on and to play fantasy for so I'm I'm I'm totally ready and Pretty much a full menu of odds are now up across the board for most sites and even for Non-cup series series I've been going through some XINITY series and truck series bets Which is a lot of fun for me built up the models of those last year It's fun to have a full year of data to know how much they suck and stuff like that and kind of it make adjustments But honestly, it's just fun to have this back. It's fun It seems like to me at least Nick as if interest may be a bit higher this year than in past years Now I find that at least from from my perspective Super super exciting. Oh, yeah, I agree. I mean it's very easy to judge Engage interest on social media Twitter and there's a lot of excitement around NASCAR betting the NASCAR betting world And I'm just hoping this year we get some some more offerings because there has been some growth I know I in particular have always wanted to Back in the day they used to have these and I don't know why they end up going away But the over-underfinishing position is my favorite bet Yeah, and I hope someday those are brought back somewhere because you know It's we're certainly a growing market in the NASCAR betting world And I can just tweak one thing in my model and get that number immediately So I agree we should get that that'd be fantastic. I would love to have those It would be great. Not yet. I haven't seen those. I know you mentioned that they were up Briefly at one of the other books on your stacking Denny's podcast But don't see them up now. Hopefully we do get there eventually But we're gonna dive into the markets that are up talk through Nick's process and get you ready for Sunday in Just one second the first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast tomorrow talking NBA and NHL With Tom Vecchio Friday We're talking EPL and UFC to get you said for this weekend as well all right here in the same podcast feed So search for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast will also be talking NASCAR throughout the season I'll have it at the end of shows if I want to dump in cup series Exfinity truck series thoughts guarantee they'll be there So if you want more NASCAR thoughts, I'll have those throughout the year as well And also check us out over on the Fandall YouTube page the midway point of the NBA season is here And now is the perfect time to download Fandall America's number one sportsbook because new customers get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000 that's bonus bets back if your first bet doesn't win Just download the Fandall sportsbook app It is safe secure and super easy to use that you can bet on everything from the money line to point scores to three Strained plus Fandall even lets you combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with the same game parlay So don't miss the chance to get your no-sweat first bet up to $1,000 and bonus bets make every moment more a Fandall an official sports betting partner of the NBA must be 21 plus And president select states first online real money wager only $10 deposits required refund issued is not withdrawal bonus bets that expire in 14 Dates restrictions apply see full terms at Fandall comm slash sportsbook gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or visit Fandall comm slash RG in Arizona 1-800 next step or text next step to five three three four two in Connecticut 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1809 with it and Kansas in Wyoming 1-800-522-4700 and in Kansas KS gambling help calm Louisiana is 1-877-770 stop Maryland MD gambling help dot org New York 1-877-8 hope and wire text open Y in West Virginia 1-800 gambler net now, of course if you are a long time covering the spread listener You've heard heard us talk to Nick before but it's been a bit so Nick for people who haven't heard you here before Go through what your NASCAR betting process looks like before you fill out a bet slip. Yeah, so I think there's a couple things I Tend to always start with the outright outright winner of the race because that's usually the first odds that are released and I always run an early week statistical model As you said dr. Nick, I do have a PhD in mathematics and so it is my area of expertise is statistical modeling And so I will compare what my model says to the odds But even then I don't just blindly bet things based off my model. I still want to do my own research into does it make sense? Talk to people. I know I talked to you a lot like what does your model say? I tried to get very informed opinions that Right, I build a model. I think it's pretty good, but I don't think it's a perfectly exact correct model I don't think anybody says that's why they're models So that's just part of my process is I see what my numbers say find where my numbers show value and then talk to People about that and even then sometimes when I'm close to showing value But maybe not I'll see what other people think or say as well because there will be times I go against my model. It's okay to do that I think you have justified reasons to do that So that's like step one of my betting processes taking my model pairing to the book odds Seeing where there's value or close to value Checking out the rest of the industry each diving into the individual driver's data itself and then placing my bet Then of course as the week moves on We get lots of different other props So I kind of already have an idea of which drivers I'm high on or low on just from the outright model And I'll be able to filter my prop process down that way because if I'm not showing value on Ryan Blaney In the outright it's very unlikely. I'll be showing out her value on him Whether it's a top forward or a group bet or a head-to-head matchup So it's a lot easier to wiggle the process down that way by starting with the outrides there Now the tough part for me that I found is that if I have value and it correlates some of you said If I have value on a driver in one market, I have a value in a driver in a lot of markets So how do you pick and choose? You know like let's just hypothetically say I have Todd Gilliland well above the outright market But it also means I've got value in top forward value in top 10 stuff like that How do you decide which market is best or do you just kind of scale things to get exposure in different markets to the same driver? It's a little of each it depends on the race depends on the odds depends on the edge And you know, I think you I think the scaling approach works really well If you have him outright at 150 or 200 to 1 you just throw a little sprinkle on it And then if you like him in some other markets where he's 40 to 1 or a group where he's 5 to 1 You can bet him a little bit larger in those markets as well So like you said, there's a lot of correlation there or you can just pick the one with the biggest edge Once all is said and done of course I don't necessarily like to wait for the knowing which one is the biggest edge because the market could move especially on Outrights, so I'll usually place my outright bets as soon as possible Once enough books is open. That's the other thing as well You kind of know which books tend to give certain drivers and certain ranges better value So you kind of know when you can wait and when you can't wait But typically I'll try to get my outright done early in the week And then I'll be able to focus on props for the rest of the week and it's also knowing which which books have a lower hold on different markets because There are some books where I can't bet top 10 like I can't bet top 10s. I can't bet outwrites like in I live in Rhode Island and They use William Hill odds It is very tough to find good outright value on a lot of those especially on my favorites So knowing intricacies from book to book knowing which books have higher holds in different markets It's something you kind of pick up as you go along But it is an important part of Betty Nascar especially if you don't live in a monopolized state Which is always a great thing for sure now Nick this is also the first points-paying race of the 2023 season and a lot of times we go into a new year you can make an assumption and You can take that assumption and apply to betting mark and see okay If I go in with this mindset, can I find value based on that? Can I find ways to parlay this this assumption into betting value like you went into last year thinking that it'd be a More competitive field because of the new car you probably done pretty well especially early on the year because there's a lot of volatility So as we look forward to 2023 it can be a driver-level take something more macro whatever it may be Are there any assumptions you're making entering this year that you want to parlay into betting whether it be for Daytona or beyond that? Yeah, I think there's three assumptions I've kind of come up with and I'll go through them in order. So number one I'm very high on Alex Bowman this year because I'm very high on his crew chief Blake Harris Blake Harris has always made teams better whether he's been an engineer or a car chief or a crew chief Those drivers have tended to have their best seasons of their career With that with that respective team when he has been a part of the team So I think this should elevate Alex Bowman's game even further We saw Michael McDowell have a career year last year Martin Truex, Jr. When he was car chief for Martin Truex, Jr. Over at furniture row won the championship So I think this is a great situation here for Alex Bowman So one of my assumptions is I want to get in on him early and I think we saw a little bit of that at the clash Yeah looked really good for a 30 to 1 long shot to win that and they made improvements throughout the weekend on that car They were one of the ones who improved During the practice sessions whereas a few got a little bit worse So I was I was really interested by that trend there assumption number two age curve We always got to talk about the age curve in NASCAR because like NFL or like other sports there is an age curve for NASCAR and What I've typically seen in research and in reading other people's research is around 28 to 36 Tends to be like the prime of your career like most athletes. It's I guess a little younger in some of the you know more I Don't know what the right word is what I'm looking for but athletic sports. I guess yeah so but in NASCAR, it's a lot it's a combination of experience and Age as well like you know your reactions do slow down as you get older. That's a real thing So I'm very curious and we've seen it in Kevin Harvick's career went from that nine-win season He didn't even make the championship four in that season Because he didn't have a great playoff and then that next year Stewart Haas racing was down as a whole and he had no wins and then last year There Stewart Haas racing was still down but Harvick did grab two wins late So I'm curious about him obviously Kyle Bush going to a new team and aging Martin Truex Jr. Isn't getting any younger Denny Hamlin's not getting any younger right Brad keselowski So where on the age curve are these guys because it's not the same for everyone a 42 year old Harvick is not a 42 year old Jeff Gordon for example, so very different. So I'm very curious how that will do So I think one of my assumptions is I do think Kevin Harvick while people are high on events his final year I think he probably only grabs one win and we kind of saw that Tony Stewart grab one win his final year Jeff Gordon grab one win Jimmy Johnson had no wins his final year So I think it's probably a zero-to-one win season for Kevin Harvick. Finally number three I think the the third assumption I'm making is something I heard on Denny Hamlin's new podcast actions detrimental those fords sound like they're gonna have the aerodynamic Advantage at the bigger tracks the large intermediates and the super speedways as far as qualifying So that's what Denny Hamlin says and I'm gonna take a three-time Daytona 500 champion at his word there one thing I always listen to his garage talk what I call garage talk I Typically drivers crew chiefs. They're telling the truth about the things they're seeing and hearing and so I do factor that into my process That's why I bet Eric Amarola to win the pole for pole qualifying tonight At 50 to 1 so I think that's an interesting little note there and something I want to keep an eye on early in the season I don't think Denny said in that podcast was if Travis Pastrana qualifies on speed He will not be going all out during the duals for betting the dual do not bet Travis Pastrana He qualifies on Wednesday night like that's one that like that's a lot of vital info to have because 2311 has One backup car for three cars. So keep all that in mind as well when it comes to like you can gain a lot of info But listen to this one thing on the aging curve that I want to go back to is There's also the flip side where there are different spikes for drivers. It's where Hand-eye coordination like peaks are only age 24 or 23 you get to like your peak there But then you combine that with like increased NASCAR knowledge So are there guys in the opposite end of the curve where you think they might be in for a good year as a result of? Being young and getting a little bit older and more experienced. Yeah, certainly Christopher Bell I think we saw him really come on last year. He made the championship for I think he's gonna have a really good year now He's 28 it doesn't seem like he's 28 because he's only been around like he's older than Eric Jones who he I was gonna say 26 yeah, and Eric Jones had a very good year last year for what was then petty GMS now legacy motor club William Byron of course is coming into his prime years as well So I think those are three younger guys we can look for and I mean we've already seen Chase Elliott Ryan Blaney knock the doors off Things so I don't think there's any surprises there, but they're still developing into those peak years, right? Joey Logano is 32. He's at the peak of his career If we look at Kyle arson at the peak of his career basically as well So those guys will continue to perform at a high level, but the ones that are coming up I think Christopher Bell Eric Jones William Byron are three that really stand out for me Yeah, Byron has got a bet at the clash And I thought he's a good value 15 to 1 there So I think that I would not be shocked to see myself on him on On him quite a bit as was the case last year at times as well Okay, now let's talk about Daytona coming up this week. We are qualifying tonight The duels are on Thursday. The race is on Sunday now. Obviously Modeling Daytona very different beast than any other track So we know that but for people who haven't bet Daytona yet Maybe they're trying to get into betting NASCAR with NFL wrapping up What are keys to know about Daytona specifically before you bet it? Yeah, so for those who are newer to NASCAR I think the most important thing you can understand about Daytona is They use something called a tapered spacer to restrict airflow to the engine and what that does it limits a car's horsepower So it can only go so fast If it was unrestricted these cars would be going 230 plus miles an hour But instead restricted they are going about 190 Let's say ballpark and what that does is it levels the playing field. There's no engine advantage suddenly And then they're all going the same speed So what becomes a factor then is the draft and so one car Driving through that air is pushing the air out of the way Just like if you're you know following a semi down the highway just pushing that air out of the way You can get better fuel mileage. Well, it's the same thing. You're getting less air resistance You're actually able to go faster if you're pulling up behind somebody and what that does it creates a huge pack all 40 cars probably can hang together in the same pack if they wanted to and It just creates a lot of shuffling It's it's literally like taking a yachtsie can of dice and just shuffle them up and rolling them out And that's kind of what happens every lap and so it's very hard to predict My statistical model can only predict Finishing position to about 10 to 15 percent accuracy for Daytona and Talladega That is the best like that is the best I can do and that's just because this race is so random And there will be big crashes and when those big crashes happen, they'll take out a lot of cars So it's very hard to predict what's going to happen so what we need to do then in terms of a betting perspective is It makes it very hard to bet on favorites because it's so random. It's very hard for them to win We've seen very long shots win this race So that's where I tend to lean on these races betting some longer shots sprinkling some bets here and there Maybe even on like five or six different long shots in different markets as well Whether it's top forward top Toyota or just to win the race so betting some long shots and then maybe placing your one or two bets on your favorites that you really feel strong about so That's kind of how I approach Daytona and from a modeling perspective Just in terms of the math itself what's going into my model this year So I use something called feature selection algorithm, which basically tells me what should go into the model without me telling it What should go into the model it picks it for me and it's picking Performance at similar tracks or Daytona and Talladega. I'm down waiting Atlanta, which is similar but different We don't need to go in the details of that But so it's waiting performance at Daytona and Talladega just in terms of like how well you finished and run But also laps led that matters if you get out front you lead a lot of laps That shows you've been a stronger driver at that track and then car quality So how well your team has performed how well you have performed for that team? That was the other thing that goes into my model here And like I said, I can only get about 10 to 15 percent out of sample accuracy on finishing position And I think that the best illustration of like how high chaos Daytona is like I'm not sure what your model says, but I've been looking at my model and the simulations for this year The highest win odds I have I think this is actually lower than yours But the highest win odds I have for anyone is six point one four percent. Yes Higher than mine. Okay. Well, I have two models. So it's higher than the model I'm using okay, and the reason is because I am weighing extra Just Daytona five hundreds and Daytona playoff cutoff races. Okay. Yeah. Yeah, that's why I've weighed those extra So it actually reduces everybody's win probability If I use if I weigh all the Talladega Daytona races equally, then yeah, I'm actually higher on than you on that So, right, you know happy me and that's a modeling decision We have to make as statisticians like right there are still some assumptions we make right and like the other thing Two is the highest top ten odds. I have our thirty six point nine percent And if you go to Hypothetically if you go to like any sportsbook right now, you're going to see drivers That are better than even money to finish top ten I'm never going to get close to that like that's my takeaway from that is It's a high chaos race for top tens it winds up where I kind of can't bet anybody shorter than like I mean three to one realistically based on the odds they give most people which is it's tough for sure now you mentioned The favorites let's take a look here at the odds over at fan dual sports book right now Ryan Blaney is a favorite He is 12 to 1 then we have uh denny hamlin chased elia kyle larson all 13 to 1 And as you mentioned your odds are lower than this So any value any guys you like at the top end of the board or it's a primarily log shots for you this year Yeah, so my um my Model that uses Daytona and talladega equally did show value on both denny hamlin and ryan blaney at 13 to 1 Blaney was 13 to 1 Opening at fan dual and he's been since bet down to 12 to 1 So I bet ryan blaney at 13 to 1 because he did show value in my model As a driver that you know is a favorite and I think it makes a lot of sense one metric I like to use and I I usually put it in my write ups or in my blurb on when I track in the action network app Uh is laps led. I think is a very interesting Stat to use a it pops out as statistically significant in my model But b I think it's very important to use because like we said, this is so random You're basically taking a yazi cup and rolling out the dice So if one guy keeps coming out if you keep getting this certain yazi combination more often Then that is what i'm basically seeing here with ryan blaney. He's leading laps more often than his odds are showing So last year he led 12.2 of laps which would come out to like plus 7 not 50 ballpark In fair odds So I like that because we just randomly drew a lap And so that was the finishing order. We get ryan blaney winning the race 12.2 of the time That's a long way up to plus 12 plus 1300 uh for ryan blaney. So that's why I chose him over denny hamlin He's been a little stronger recently in terms of leading laps But I did show some value on both of those two in my I guess my I don't know what to call it my less chaotic model So my chaotic model. I don't have any value at the top of the board at all Yeah, I went during nfl season for my two models with new and old which seemed super derogatory Especially because the old one performed better. So I've tried to figure out a new way. I'm going to base an alternate I think is the way I'm going but um, it's it's I don't want to I don't want to besmirch the old model What about the non the non favorites then because we do have a lot of guys here And I think that some of the the long shots actually are Decent good decently good values based on my numbers, but I want to hear based on what you're seeing Any other outrides you like in your more chaotic model? Yeah, so in my more chaotic model. I think you can you can go pretty far down the board Uh, I would show value on a g allmendinger at 50 to 1 in the chaotic model and people forget He's actually pretty good super speedway racer Not just in the colleague xfinity car But back when he was with jtg dirty pulled off some really good finishes So I'm showing some value on him at 50 to 1. I haven't bet him yet But I would show value there. I'm still showing value on eric jones You can get him at 33 to 1 out there. So I would definitely take eric jones at 33 to 1 I have him about 25 to 1 is fair value. He's my favorite bet When I you know, he opened at 40 to 1 that was my favorite bet of all and so I bet him there So eric jones a j allmendinger are two drivers that my model is my chaotic model is higher on and Going way down there. If you can find Todd Gilliland 150 to 1. Absolutely. You should still bet it I have Todd Gilliland at I need to click over because I don't have my numbers right in front of me So pardon me for just a moment. I have Todd Gilliland at just over 1 to win So 150 to 1 is still value there as well. I have them a little bit higher than that I don't want to even say the actual number I actually want to ask you about AJ allmendinger's teammate Justin Haley. Justin Haley is also 50 to 1 same number as dinger tremendous track record in the lower series Four wins on super speedways between trucks and Xfinity one win in the cup series that was because Mostly due to rain. I don't really count that honestly in his favor Where are you on Haley as of now at 50 to 1? Yeah, I'm a little surprised that my model isn't as high on Haley as it is on allmendinger But I have Haley a little bit behind allmendinger. So I have 50 to 1 pretty much right at fair value for Justin Haley And I guess the thing with me is he hasn't led a lot in the cup series So he did a little bit in that rain shorten race. I mean, he was right up there getting ready to lead when the rain hit So that's kind of unfortunate for him But I think that's probably the biggest reason why he's getting a little bit of a ding Is because in the cup series hasn't led, but he also isn't in the best equipment to lead So I think that's one area where I could potentially improve my model would be maybe laps led percentage as As it relates to equipment and uh, you know, that's why we do these things because when we always talk We think of new things to add in right. Absolutely. Uh, I do like the jones one I did not get in when he was at 40. So it's kind of a bummer Let's be the first super speedway in a while I've not had eric jones exposure. Uh, and then gill and I've got just several times So I I need that pretty badly For sure. What about the non outright? So you've got some stuff over at vandal, obviously we've got We've got top three top 10 some head to heads group bets, etc But also full menu elsewhere. So when you look at the full available odds across every book nick What are your favorite bets for this year's Daytona 500? Yeah, well, I mean, let's stick with the tot gill and train because I I love him at 40 to 1 for top forward No, I've I've got him way higher than that. So I've got him about 27 28 to 1 as fair value So I would still take him at 40 to 1. I mean if remember last year's dates on a 500 He started in the back and he worked his way up forward He ran in the top 15 for over 70 percent of the laps in that race until he crashed And that was with 12 to go. He was involved in an incident So uh, and he was right up there running near the front inside the top five or six when that happened So I think Todd Gillin has a decent chance to finish his top forward He had very strong races last year three races Over 50 percent inside the top 15 in terms of the percentage of laps he ran not of the total race But of the laps he ran which helps us adjust for incidents as well So 40 to 1 top forward and I've been hitting, you know, the top manufacturer market pretty hard I got christ for bell at plus 650 for top toyota. He's no longer there But if you can find him out there I actually created a calculator for top manufacturer and and I have his fair odds At plus 475 so if you can find him longer than plus 475 out there plus 500 plus 550 I would still bet christ for bell as top toyota You know those toyotas it's really interesting because there's only seven of them And travis pastrana isn't even guaranteed to make it into the field But even if he does I only have him finishing as top toyota 1 of the time But the others denny hamlin, we all know how great denny hamlin is at super speed ways He's still only 19.2 percent in my chaotic model to finish his top toyota Then I have my model surprisingly high on tyler reddix I think you probably can find value on him at top toyota as well I have him plus 430 at fair odds and then bubble wallace and then christ for bell and then martin truex jr Are all pretty close. It's a little bit of a drop from bell to truex But those top four are smushed within 2% denny hamlin 19.2 down to christ for bell 17.4 for top toyota Venturex at 14.2 ty gives at 11.8 So it's a very very small toyota field right and plus 650 means You just need to win one in 7.5 times to break even well, there's only seven toyotas So we're already saying at plus 650 where I got bell that he had to be Significantly worse than the average toyota and I don't think he's worse than the average toyota I think he's equal to or maybe even slightly better than the average toyota considering I've got strana very low and even ty gibbs and truex. I have somewhat lower than him as well I know that we talked about this yesterday. We're uh talking off offline But we have bell almost identically. Uh, I have him at 3.84 percent to win. You have 3.83 So actually an outright value on bell. He's 30 to 1 right now at vandal sports book implied odds there at 3.23 so If i'm showing outright value there, he ranks third among toyotas in Win odds for me behind I have bubba higher than you do I think and then hamlin is above and as well but then bell's next so he's Uh above truex well above gibbs. Well, but pastrana as well. So plus 650 a really good number He's not even gibbs at that point. I believe when you bet it's which is yeah, I think absurd And this goes to your point like you said you show outright value on him But it's you know at 30 to 1 that's like what 3.3 percent implied or something and we're at 3.8 percent So it's only half a percentage right raw value So instead look at a different market and maybe find value on him there And that's what I did. I was able to find value on him on the top toyota market So I don't think i'm gonna end up betting him outright unless he somehow Is longer than 30 to 1 somewhere as the week goes on But uh, you know, it's funny. I don't know if you use practice or qualifying at all in your Daytona model But I found it has literally zero predictability. Uh, so I don't even add practice or qualifying. This is my final model I use qualifying In the lower series to weed out the the really bad cars effectively. Yes. Um, uh, that's the only use it serves So for the cup series, I will use the single car qualifying I will not use starting order for the same reason because I want to Effectively lower the rickware cars. That's that's the entire thesis behind including it in there I very much understand that a very small portion. I do not include starting order after the duals though So my model will be finalized after tonight and then once I start the the field is finalized So that will impact things too Yeah, because I'm running as if it's a 42 car field. I don't know the math. I am as well. Yeah Yeah, I don't know how else to do it honestly. So yeah, like that's the best That's what I'm doing as well. I mean I'm just running as a 42 car field So when we drop two of those cars, you know, Christopher bell instead of being 3.8 3% or whatever we have them at will probably be closer to 4% something like that I just thought it was funny because yeah, you and I were we were like you said we're 0.01 different on bell, but even an average finish you had 19.05 and I had 19.09. Yeah, that's crazy Like it's it's insane And it makes me feel a lot better at my stuff too knowing that like a You have no one above 6.1% that makes me feel I thought I was a donkey that I had everyone below that but I feel like my peak is on my aggressive model Five five percent. Yeah, any hand was at five percent and ryan blaine is at 4.9 percent I had like one iteration of it where I could have gotten it down there. I decided against it But I just I you know, I'm not betting the 6.1 percent anyway So honestly, it doesn't affect me too much. But going back to the the 40 car field I've got jimmy johnson at 23 top 10. He doesn't qualify. That's 23 percent you scatter across the 40 drivers do qualify So if you're showing a value on them now before the field is set that implies you'll have I mean that value is only likely to get better as things go along. So I think that's I haven't had 22.2 percent. So Right in the same ballpark I love it. That is I mean, I can just have you on as confirmation bias to me then Exactly. I think that that's uh, that's a positive as well. We don't want a confirmation bias Uh, what were the two we disagreed on like tyler retic? I think and somebody Oh, Kevin harvick. I think you wrote up and my model's lower on him. I have harvick at Hi I don't it's it's because like He's always around at the end Well, I guess last year he wasn't That hurts him in my model on the laps led side of things, right? Because like percentage of laps led he just runs every lap Um, but he doesn't lead them unless it was like that one steward haciar at talladega where they just had the four car Train train out of gas. Yeah, that was funny. I got off the plane and I was like, oh cool Like this is going really well, and then they all ran out of gas. It was just uh, a delightful finish there But nick it was a pleasure to talk to you today Uh, as I mentioned, you can find nick on two separate podcasts for this year stacking denny's at jordan mackabee And of course running hot with tv pt fl as well Find those wherever you get your podcast nick. It was a pleasure to talk to you Find all his work at the action network as well. Good luck to you with the daytona 500 Enjoy the nfl off season. I'm hopefully uh, gonna talk to you again here soon down the line Oh, I'm sure we'll be talking plenty and uh, good luck to you as well. Enjoy the race and uh, Dude, we're back. I'm ready. We are back. Check out nick on twitter at roto doc I am on twitter at jim sonnis again We are back once again tomorrow to break down nba and nhl betting with tom vecchio We'll talk to you all then this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network