 Right, so just a few things to cover today. I'm thinking I might as well just start. I was actually gonna start on a question, but I think I might just start on the pressing issue really, which is FOMC and that's just really been released. And before I started recording, I was just saying thank you to Lawrence for this, really, the analysis. So the dot plot for September 2021 meeting shows that zero Fed officials see hikes in 2021 versus zero in the June meeting. So they're comparing this meeting to June's as a measure of how hawkish or dovish the Fed members are when it comes to potential rate hikes. So they've increased, well, in this meeting, nine Fed officials see hikes compared to seven in the June meeting. So two more would see hikes in 2022. That's hawkish and 17 Fed officials in this meeting, today's meeting saw hikes in 2023 versus 13. So again, another hawkish move, right? So there's more expectation. And remember, these are the smartest guys in the room, regardless of whether they do it or not, I have to emphasize this point, whether they actually raise rates or not, because no one can predict the future. And when I say predict the future, I'm talking about data, right? And the unforeseen, what's gonna happen potentially with inflation or global growth, et cetera. Nobody knows, but they're just basically looking at all the data they have, right? And they're saying, okay, right now, even with everything we've assessed, we still think that potentially there could be, you know, more rate hikes, yeah? So it's again, by the rumor, this is what we have to do as traders, right? Forget what the price is doing in a short-term in a sense that, but necessarily forget what it's doing, but don't be driven by what price is doing in the short-term. Yeah, because what happens is in the short-term, as we know, is that you will have it's a combination of liquidity, right? It's liquidity hunting that's really kind of going on here. And you can see it, I've seen this a thousand times almost, right? Where you get the move down, right? Draws traders in, the hawk is traders in. There wasn't wrong for going short, right? It wasn't wrong for interpreting that, or the algos weren't wrong. What it does is it causes traders to foam over. At some point, that was a very bearish price action. And all of a sudden, it captures them. And if you go down to probably even the five minute, for example, that's an outside candle, capture-pane candle, we know that was literally bearish. It takes them all out. They have tight stops, takes them all out, right? All the stops were above this level and probably above another level here. It definitely stops above there. What does it do? It takes them all out as well, right? So all the stops, all the money that was resting above, right? Took all those out because the expectation is what? If everyone can read this, right? Everyone is reading this statement here. Fed, you know, Fed signals that it's tapering soon. Everybody's going, what? Everyone's going short. Yeah, everyone's going short. But the liquidity's not there. The liquidity was all the way above. So it's just literally taken out, you know, everyone above. And by the way, I'm not saying that it's going to start to fall like a stone now. Nobody knows, right? The liquidity hunting process can last for a day or two. It could go higher from here. The point I'm trying to make is this, is that the setup, whatever the setup is, whether it was a stop hunt, right? Whether you had that as a stop hunt or whether you're looking at higher, you know, zones to try and get short at, yeah? The direction of travel for now, over the medium to long term, is to the downside. If it pulls back into a zone or, you know, a local zone, whether it's some sort of intraday CPR or intraday stop hunt, you know, the path over the medium term, at least from now until, you know, the new year, because we're already pretty much end of September into October, you know, maybe another two or two and a half trading months is gonna be to the downside, right? That's the most likely scenario, yeah? Is everyone following right now? Is everyone following? And Mr. Diligent says, too risky trading on the news. Yeah, I tend to not, you know, trade the news. You guys, you know, have been with me for a while. I haven't traded the news for ages unless it's literally a total, like miss a total shock to the market. And then even then I'm kind of a bit hesitant and because I can wait for a CPR, right? If the market's been wrong footed, then you can guarantee that, obviously guarantee, but, you know, the price, when prices come back to that area, so what I mean by that is this, right? Is let's go down to a lower timeframe. Let's say, for example, and I'll get rid of all of this. Let's say, for example, the market has been, the market expected, for example, a rate hike from the US dollar, yeah? So they expect, oh, actually, I'll do it, I'll do it the other way, right? Because it just makes it easier. So let's say, for example, the market expected a rate cut from the euro, yeah? So if they expect a rate cut from the euro, which way should the euro dollar go up or down? If the market expects a rate cut, yeah? Which way should the price go up or down? Down, says Drake. Down, says Eric, absolutely, right? This is what's supposed to happen. So the expectation is for the market to go down. But let's say, right, the market is totally wrong-footed and you start to see price, I mean, and the European Central Bank say they're going to high crates, yeah? So what should happen then is you should see something like that, yeah? But even if prices start to go, you know, higher and higher and higher and higher, right? Don't feel, don't feel FOMO, right? Don't feel FOMO because the market, right? The big traders have been wrong-footed, yeah? And they have to be able to get back in and they're not going to buy at these prices here. They're not going to buy at that, yeah? Prices eventually always drift down or drift down to an area where they can, you know, they've been captured in their position because they expected this to happen, yeah? They've been wrong-footed and eventually they can, because obviously they're going to have to, you know, loss aversion bias, they're moving, removing their stop losses, their positioning is all, you know, is upside down. They have to get, they'll probably hedge, make some money on it to the downside and then what they'll do is when prices come back down to an area where they can get some relief because this is where the pain would be, relief, that's where it will happen. So I don't ever really, ever really, you know, it's been a long time since I've really kind of traded the news as far as, you know, buy, press, bought, buy or sell actually on the news. I tend to wait for the news to come out, yeah? And then if it wrong-footed to market, brilliant. If it doesn't, if it's a continuation, then still brilliant because there's always going to be pullbacks to levels that I can get short at, yeah? Days of trading the news is pressing buy and sell at the particular moment is definitely long, long gone. But does everyone understand that though? Everyone, everyone get that, yeah? Or I should say, if anyone, does anyone not get that then? Does anyone want me to repeat that? Anybody want me to repeat that? No, no, no, no, no, no, okay, brilliant. All right then, so at the moment it's all about the dollar, you know, hawkish, you know, dollar, right? Don't be surprised again. Do not be surprised if we see prices again start to drift higher, you know, above that area and then maybe start to, you know, roll over. Cause again, none of us know, there's not enough liquidity. You have to understand this, yeah? If there's not enough buy orders to facilitate the amount of selling that needs to take place for prices to go down, then the market will look for the buy orders above the market. So there needs to be enough buy orders for the traders to go short and if there's not enough buy orders below the market, then they have to look for the buy orders above the market. And if you go short, if you press sell right now on your broker, your stock loss is a buy order. So the market needs to look for these buy orders for the liquidity, yeah? So just remember that. So nobody knows, nobody has a clue how much buy orders there are below the market. And if there's more buy orders above the market in the short term, that's where the market is going to look for the liquidity. That's it, yeah? And just understand that nobody has a crystal ball. But if it continues to fall, then brilliant. Just wait for pullbacks to levels. In fact, I probably like this. If you are trading any of the lower timeframes, then I would say that this actually is a really, really nice CPR, right? Textbook CPR effect, if anything, that area there. Why is that? Because you've got definitely got on a 15 minute chart, 15 minutes, you've definitely got breakout traders getting involved. How many of you who used to trade the news would have taken that, oh, sugar. Yeah, sorry. How many of you would have taken that large candle? Yep, Lauren says me. Yep, everybody would, right? There's not a trader in here who would not have taken that before you knew what the fundamentals were and how to kind of trade the fundamentals, right? You would have been driven by that price action. That is pretty good. The most bullish price action, the most bullish engulfing candle, capture paying candle, you can possibly see. It's engulfed how many candles? It's literally engulfed like the whole day, the whole previous week, you know what I mean? All right, engulfed all the candles. Yeah, very bullish candle. And then all of a sudden, what do we get? We get, where am I now? I supposed to, where's my fast forward? Oh, sorry guys, I've lost my, I've lost my, oh, here it is, sorry. Yeah, and now all of a sudden you find yourself under water, right? So you've got involved here. You've entered the trade here. You've now been caught in your position thinking that prices were gonna go higher and now you find yourself in problems. If you get a pullback around here, I think that is literally textbook on another timeframe. And especially if you look at that, maybe in a five minute, you can see the retracement traders getting involved here even more detail, right? So these guys, you can see off the underside of that level, you can see where it goes higher, starts to go higher again and then the collapse. So anything to the underside of this level here, these guys are losing money and drowning now. They're drowning. So if they, you're seeing it literally live, these guys, if they haven't been stuck, they got long and they haven't been stopped out, haven't been stopped out here and they're hoping and praying, they're moving their stop losses, moving it like, no, no, no, no. I don't wanna take that. I'm gonna move it here. How many of us used to do that? Looking at our brokers, yeah? How many of us, it reminds you of what you used to do, right? No, no, no, my stop loss is gonna go here now. And then the further it goes to the downside. Yep, that's exactly it, Juju. Laugh out loud because we've all done it. I've done it many times in my early days, right? Stop losses there, it originally was here, right? Underneath that tight stop, now all of a sudden it's down here. And now all of a sudden if price starts to come down, it's gonna be down here. What are you begging? What are you praying happens? At prices do what? Comes back to at least somewhere close to where you entered, which would have been what? Right here in it, where your entry was there, right? And then if you went short, or if you went long, I should say, right? Based on that engulfing candle, whatever it is, if you bought, what do you have to do to exit? You have to sell to exit, right? You're gonna sell to exit that supply, yeah? Other traders who were looking at this area here, underside of that support and resistance zone, right? You've got a level of resistance, bit of resistance here. They're gonna start to look to do what? Sell as well, right? So you've got more selling than buying going on. And anyone who managed to bloody pick the bottom here is gonna take profit where at an area where they think it might reverse, because it reversed here, right? Strong rejection there. So they're gonna look to do what? Sell. So the question is always, always, always, always, you're seeing this play out live right now. Question is, is why is there gonna be more buy, buy orders and sell orders? Why? Why should there be? The only reason why there ever will be, yeah, is if there's not enough liquidity for prices to go down and there's still lots of buy orders even above that market structure and the market will hunt for that before rolling over fundamentally. Because like I said, in the short term, price action is random. This is what's showing, this is showing you how random price is, right? But in the medium to long term, understanding the fundamental analysis on why we should be getting short. And remember, by the way, yeah, I called this before we even saw this, yeah? So in fact, when I read this just to show you quickly, Lawrence posted this at 1910, yeah? 1910, right there. And at 1912, I said that's hawkish dollar. Yeah, 1912. Hawkish dollar, so sell the euro and buy the dollar, right? That would have been right here, yeah? So 1910, so pretty much right at these highs, yeah? Right at these highs, then 1910, 1912, I would have been saying short dollar. Well, I said short, I said hawkish dollar. Whereas everybody else, these were tradesmen traders were doing what? Going long, I mean short, sorry, it's not short dollar. I was saying buy dollar, short euro, yeah? Hawkish dollar, which is buy the dollar, which is basically go short. Whereas 10, 15, 20 minutes later, traders were still, these technical analysis traders, you don't understand fundamental analysis and what's the bigger picture, right? It's still going long here and now they're caught in their positions. Yeah, Lawrence says, yeah, margin call time, that's exactly it, margin call, yeah? They're getting caught and this is what's happened, see? And it's simple to understand. The frustration, I think, why should I know is we know the direction, we know the direction of travel. It's just really just a timing issue, right? So timing as far as no one really knows when prices are gonna turn around. That's the reason why we manage our risk reward. Yeah, and we just enter where we enter, place our stop-loss and we just get in and we just take the trades, right? And take the setups, that's all we can do. But the timing is just the issue that all traders face. Nobody knows, otherwise, if I knew for 100% that this was gonna turn around here, even though, yes, I know I said short dollar, but I don't know whether it's gonna turn around here, whether it's gonna turn around at the absolute highs. Nobody knows, but the point is, I know eventually it's gonna go to the downside or the likelihood anyway, the likelihood probabilities are my favorite that it's gonna go to the downside. So that's the power of fundamentals. But yeah, pretty much, I think that's self-explanatory. Any trades, I think long dollar now really for at least the next month, of course you have to or two, but you have to, have to, have to, the data has to support the narrative, guys. Every time you get, and it's funny because it's not so funny, but there is an article that came out that I did want to show. Oh, I'm gonna talk about this as well. So this is talking about data supporting the narrative, right? So remember that if the data doesn't support the narrative then there is, can anyone basically say what this is called? Is that there's a term for growth down inflation up? What does that, what's the term for that, the technical term? If you get high inflation and you get low growth, Lawrence says stagflation exactly. Mr. Diligent builds exactly stagflation. Stagflation potentially could be a problem. That's why you need GDP, yeah? You need that GDP quarter on quarter and annualized to continue to rise if inflation is also rising and also as well. This is really important. So let me just zoom in a little bit. Again, it's just hammers on the point really which is a 2023 move. So faster growth and inflation make a rate hike more likely in future years. Self-explanatory, right? It's not Leon Roe saying this. It's not some, I'm just not just making this all up. This is the rules to the game. This is the rules to the game, yeah? Faster growth, so growth, GDP and inflation, right? Make a rate hike more likely which means that we know where inflation is right now. We just need faster growth and that makes a rate hike more likely. So if you do start to see GDP or measures of GDP especially employment and unemployment starts disappoint then that is gonna make a rate hike less likely because jobs are a strong indication of growth and if you have high unemployment or low employment or there's stalling in that area, then in general GDP, then you can make the necessary adjustments but remember the point is guys, we're trading the rumor and as long as the data supports the rumor and supports the narrative, it's just literally one way, right? Just buy on the dips, your trade setups, your stop hunts, your CPRs, your daily demand zone, trade setups should only be really one way. Yeah, should only be one way. So with that being said, thanks again to Lawrence for this. This is really, really helpful Lawrence, really, really helpful, thank you for that. So I will then talk about main fundamental theme, just briefly touching this.