 Welcome to Tick Mill Weekly Market Outlook for week commencing the 9th of December with me, Patrick Mulley. In the US, the FOMC meeting on Wednesday is unlikely to deliver any major surprises. The central bank on hold after delivering three rate cuts so far this year. Chair Powell should re-emphasise the data-dependent approach of the committee. With November, US CPI inflation also due on Wednesday expecting to come in line at 2% year-over-year and November's retail sales release Friday likely rising. Case for no urgent rate cut should remain in place. Also, Friday's labour market data further supported the notion of stability and interest rates for now. From a technical perspective, the dollar index recovered sharply on Friday after the stronger and expected jobs data and is now expected to test the monthly pivot at the 98th level. If we close above here, then it's likely that we have a ABC low in place with a D upside objective now at 98.81. So if we can get that closed above 98, I'm expecting a test of the 98.81 area. However, if we, for whatever reason, don't see follow-through buying on Monday, then a break below the 97.30 will be a bearish development suggesting a move through the price wing lows at 97.13 down to test the 96th level. While we're talking about the dollar, let's check in with gold. As the dollar reversed sharply to the upside, the gold price reversed sharply to the downside on Friday. We now look for follow-through selling at the beginning of the week to retest the current swing lows down to the 14.50 to 14.47 area. A break here will open an initial test of 14.35 with the ultimate downside objective coming in at around 14.13. However, if we do see a sharp reversal on Friday's sell-off, then we'll be looking for a test of the trendline resistance up at 14.90. Canadian dollar raised most of its weekly gains, mainly triggered by a hawkish banker-canon policy message, as the employment data staged the biggest drop since 2009. An employment rate rose to 5.9%, although wage growth remained solid. Solid jobs market has been the basis for the banker-canonist resistance to follow the global easing trend, and while it's still early to call for a downtime just yet, markets may be less convinced that the bank will keep such neutral stance for long after Friday's jobs data. In this sense, it will be interesting to analyse Governor Pollas' words and a scheduled speech on the 12th. A less pollas, who has just announced he will step down in 2020, decisively downplays the bad jobs number. Markets expect that the soft Canadian dollar momentum will prompt the currency to want to perform its risk-sensitive peers. From a technical perspective, we saw a sharp reversal on Friday with the stronger than expected US jobs and weaker than expected Canadian jobs. As such, while we hold support now at the $131.50, I'm looking for a retest of the $133.30 highs, and a break here to target the D equidistant swing objective and the descending trendline resistance in the $134.30 area. In the Eurozone, new ECB chief Lagarde is hosting her first press conference. No material change is expected with QE just being reintroduced this quarter. New ECB staff projections will be published with both CPI growth and projections for 2020 likely lowered. Markets also don't expect any clarity about Lagarde's preference on the ECB strategic review. Mainly markets expect a modest improvement in the December German ZEW index. From a technical perspective, whilst the $111 area remains resistance for the Euro, it's likely that we will now retest $110 support en route to our equidistant swing objective down from $109.30 to $109.50 area. From here I'll be watching for potential bullish reversals to set long positions targeting an ultimate test of $1,250. If we get a snapback on Friday's reversal and break back through the $111, then I would anticipate that we have our C low in place as such will be targeting a D upside objective at $1,250. While we're talking about the Euro, let's check in with the DAX. DAX held the support at the $12,950 level and as such I'm now looking for a retest of the prior highs at $13,400 en route to the ultimate upside objective here at $13,650. The overriding event of the week for the sterling is the parliamentary elections on Thursday. The market is currently partly pricing in the Conservative Party victory. Should the Conservative Party gain a majority, as the latest polls suggest, a large Conservative Party majority is set up more of a positive effect on GBP than the thinner majority, as the latter would raise concerns about the extension of the transition period between 2020. Conversely a hung parliament outcome would lead to a full pricing out of the sterling Brexit resolution, a rebuilding of sterling speculative shorts and likely weighing on the sterling pounds. Regarding the sterling reaction timeline, the first exit polls are due at 10 p.m UK time on Thursday, with more clarity on the key battlefield seats to come early Friday morning between 2 and 3 a.m UK time. Data-wise the October industrial and manufacturing production due Tuesday should have limited impact on sterling ahead of the election results. Whilst we trade above the 131 handle, I'm now looking for a test of projected trendline resistance at the 133 area. From here I'll be looking for bearish reversal patterns to set short positions, talking a retest of the prior resistance back down at 130. Next week a calendar packed with market moving events worldwide will likely overshadow the impact of the numerous data releases in Japan, which pose PMIs, machine orders and PPI. The US-China trade negotiations will inevitably be the key driver throughout the week, with the Yen likely finding support on any indication that the trade deal will be delayed. Friday's reversal, we are now looking at the potential to break through the 109 level en route to test the sending trendline resistance up at 110.14 with the A, B, C, D equality target at 110.15. However a failure below 108.30 would delay this upside target and suggest we move down to test projected ascending trendline support down to the 107.17 area. Speculation about the restart of the Reserve Bank of Australia's easing has mounted last week, mostly on the back of wheat GDP and retail sales data, despite the bank retaining Constructed Tuner's policy announcement. Next week we'll not have many local stories driving the Australian dollar, except for a speech by RBA Governor Philip Lowe on Monday, although it's not clear whether any monetary policy topic will be touched on. Most of the moves next week will be steered by global sentiment dynamics. The Australian dollar can continue to consolidate just below the 68.50 level as the 68 level continues to act in support, anticipates a break through the resistance at 68.60 en route to a test of the 69 level. However, if we fail to get a break to through the 68.60 resistance and we trade back through 68, then I'd be looking for a test of the ascending trendline support down to the 67.20 area. And that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing December 9th.